US Q1 GDP Growth Revised Lower to -0.7%

US Q1 GDP Growth Revised Lower to -0.7%

The United States’ Q1 GDP growth was revised lower to -0.7% pace versus a 0.2% pace in the Advance report. It compares to a 2.2% clip from Q4. For the latest report, consumption was nudged lower to 1.8% versus 1.9% previously, and is down from a 4.4% Q4 rate. Fixed investment was bumped up to -1.3% versus -2.5% previously. This was due to a 2.8% drop in nonresidential activity, versus -3.4% previously, as structures fall 20.8% compared to -23.1% (in large part due to shrinking rig counts in the oil industry).

Residential construction was boosted to a 5.0% pace from the prior 1.3%. Government consumption was revised lower to -1.1% from -0.8%. Inventories added $15.0 bln, have of the original $30.3 bln contribution. Net exports subtracted $77.0 bln versus -$50.7 bln. The chain price index was steady at -0.1% previously, and is down from Q4′s 0.1% and Q3′s 1.4% rate. The core rate posted a 0.8% rate from 0.9% previously, and versus 1.1% in Q4 and 1.4% in Q3.

The US GDP figure was slightly better than expected and almost in line with analyst expectations. It therefore didn’t have a significant immediate impact on USD. The only dollar pair moving more strongly after the announcement is the USDCAD as the Canadian GDP number came out at the same time and was a disappointment. USDCAD is up by 0.66% at the time of writing and approaching yesterday’s shooting star high at 1.2538. Today’s high at the time of writing: 1.2518.  Fibonacci levels in the above chart point to potential support levels with 38.2% coinciding with 50 day SMA and 50% with a sideways move from mid-may. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still trading at intraday support created by lower Bollinger Bands that have supported the index since yesterday.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Analysis for 05.29.2015

Free Forex Signals for 05.29.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

EURUSD, Daily

According to yesterday’s release US Initial jobless claims rose 7k to 282k (median 271k) for the week-ended May 23 from 275k (was 274k). Continuing claims rose to 2,222 from 2,211k for the week-ended May 16. This is near levels last seen in 2006. This weeks spike and the recent volatility is likely due to seasonal factors surrounding the Easter holiday.

The Preliminary annualized Gross Domestic Product data out today is expected to be revised to -0.9% from 0.2% in the release, following 2.2% growth in Q4. This report will give us more give more insights regarding US economy and its improvement. Greece continues to hang over the Eurozone, with wider market sentiment and hopes for a deal by the end of the month quickly fading. Yesterday’s deal-no deal comments by Greece and its creditors were more extreme than usual. It seems Tsipras was forced to express reassuring and optimistic comments to prevent panic and further deposit outflows ahead of the upcoming pension and wage payments. However, these statements are in conflict with creditor officials, highlighting that Greece is increasingly desperate for a quick deal since the extra time is over.

Yesterday the pair moved up to 1.0965 resistance level where the 50-day SMA coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and closed above previous day’s high. Declining tops and bottoms form a downtrend and as we have now seen the expected upside reaction from 1.0848 support (coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the March 13th low to the May high) the chances have improved that the recent downward trend has reversed. Today’s price action and upside momentum have been subdued. The 1.1093 support at pivot candle high was enough to reverse an intraday down move today but there has not been a decisive move above yesterday’s high. If there is no strong decline today the weekly candle is will create a bullish pin bar. In this context the 50 day SMA is a minor resistance and we should see price moving higher next week. The intraday price action after the US GDP figures today (12:30 GMT) should give us more indications on for things to come.

2015-05-29_1418

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Today’s intra-day performance shows clearly the NZD weakness against all major currencies with moves extending up to approximately 70 basis points. AUDNZD has moved higher after a hammer candle indicated further upward momentum but has now hit a resistance at early may range low. NZDUSD has dropped below an important weekly support level. JPY is showing some varying strength against all major currencies, with CHFJPY being an exception and NZDJPY moving strongly, down by 75 basis points and at lower Bollinger Bands at the time of writing. GBP has been weak while USD has had a mixed performance.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Gross Domestic Product (Q1) is expected to be revised to -0.9% from 0.2% in the release, following 2.2% growth in Q4, expecting to give more insights regarding US economy and its improvement. Forecast risk: downward, given outsized revisions in source data for trade and inventories. Market risk: downward, as a weaker report could impact the already-fragile Fed rate hike timing.
  • Canada Gross Domestic Product is expected to increase by 0.2% in April at a moderate pace from the previous result that kept the percentage unchanged.  The Q1 GDP report may be anti-climactic as anything between +0.5% to -0.5% will roughly match the BoC’s flat estimate. The key to the policy outlook remains, of course, what happens following the oil shock.
  • US Chicago purchasing managers’ Index is expected to come in at 53. Chicago PMI rose 6.0 points to 52.3 in April, better than expected, after increasing 0.5 points to 46.3 in March as the index continues to correct from the 13.6 point plunge in February to 45.8 (which was the weakest reading since July 2009). Both employment and new orders increased, and inventories declined. Prices paid also fell. The data are consistent with the Fed’s view that some of the weakness in Q1 was due to temporary factors.

 

2015-05-29_1352

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 

Free Forex Analysis for 05.28.2015

Free Forex Signals for 05.28.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

EURUSD, Daily

EU says that further progress is needed in Greece talks. Yet again Greek officials are suggesting a quick deal with creditors, although today, it admittedly sounded more like this was just what Greek wants rather than a done deal. By contrast, creditors remain pessimistic and an EU spokeswoman said there are still issues that need to be resolved, with further progress needed in talks that will continue in coming days. Varoufakis calls for Greek debt restructuring, while saying that the IMF has a very dark history over the past 20-25 years. A Greek government spokesman meanwhile said the country is not planning to bundle its IMF repayments and aims to have a deal by Sunday. She also said that she is working on a common document with creditors. Creditors meanwhile continue to highlight that there are still considerable differences and Varoufakis’ comments on the IMF highlight that his tone hasn’t softened. This obviously is not helping. Neither are the conflicting messages coming out of Greece and it should be clear by now that only when creditor officials announce that a deal is imminent we can actually believe it. Greek officials seem to equate their hope for a quick deal, with actual progress. At the same time ECB’s Nowotny has commented the wider Eurozone economy by saying that there is no “currency war” in a historical range, but he admitted that the ECBs quantitative easing program has helped the Eurozone economy by weakening the EUR. However, he also warned that widespread negative yields can’t be normal.

We have seen some short term bullish momentum since yesterday in EURUSD and need to now have some follow-through (or more consolidation) to avoid further decline. At the time of writing EURUSD is trading inside yesterday’s pin bar range after it fell back from 1.0950 where it was close to the 50% Fibonacci level and Monday’s low. After yesterday’s reaction higher from support level and a close inside the lower Bollinger band the likelihood of price turning higher has increased. However, I would now like to see price creating a higher low and close above yesterday’s high to further support the reversal indication.  This would suggest that price could move through the moving average resistance and to next resistance where previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci levels coincide. EURUSD is now approaching the levels that attracted buyers yesterday. Intraday price action at these levels is of high importance as we are looking for indications on markets’ collective opinion of this potential momentum reversal. Should the current support fail, the next significant daily support level is at 1.0660.

2015-05-28_1616

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Today’s clear trend is the AUD and NZD weakness. When compared to the USD currencies more or less have had the same percentage change (± 40 basis points) except AUD and NZD that have fallen 122 and 155 basis points respectively against the USD. Apart from the slight USD strength today the Euro and CHF have had some strength against the other currencies while GBP and JPY have had a mixed performance. Again, it’s the AUD and NZD weakness that have moved EURAUD and EURNZD more than other EUR pairs.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Preliminary Q1 GDP came in sub-expectations at +0.3% q/q, half the median forecast and down from the 0.6% growth of Q4. Second estimation was expected at 0.4%, but the actual result was equal to previous 0.3%.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected. The 7k initial claims rise to 282k in the fourth week of May extends the 11k bounce to 275k (was 274k) in the BLS survey, as claims continue to reverse the tightness in the prior three readings that started with a 262k cycle-low at the end of April. Claims are still tight versus pre-May levels however, and are displaying a cyclical downtrend that became obscured in early-April by a temporary spike around the Easter holiday period.
  • US Pending Home Sales (MoM) is expected to increase by 0.9% in April compared to previous result 1.1% in March. This is a leading indicator of the housing market in the US and the economy as a whole.
  • Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)   is expected to increase by 0.2% in April. An increase is expected after Core CPI improved to a 2.2% y/y pace in March from 2.0% y/y pace in February and 2.2% y/y in January. But the trend deceleration should be worrying policymakers.

2015-05-28_1613

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Analysis for 05.27.2015

Free Forex Signals for 05.27.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s US reports revealed small upside surprises. The durable goods figures for equipment beat estimates modestly despite a 0.5% April headline orders drop, while new home sales rose 6.8% in April to partly reverse a March plunge. The GDP growth outlook remains unchanged at 2.5% in Q2. We saw a May consumer confidence rise to 95.4 that defied declines in all other confidence surveys for the month, and the Richmond Fed index bounced as expected to 1 from -3. Only the Dallas Fed index disappointed, with a drop to a -20.8 six-year low from -16.0 in April. Additionally we had Richmond Fed’s Lacker speaking yesterday. He likes June as a “good time to begin considering raising rates,” suggesting that weak Q1 data is transitory and inflation is firming again after oil rebounds from its slide. Lacker is a known hawk in the FOMC.

EURUSD has recouped the 1.0900 level during Asian trade after leaving a one-month low at 1.0863 yesterday. The pair has fallen some 4% in seven of the last eight trading days after making a three-month peak. I suggested yesterday that the support at 1.0845 could work as a target for intraday trades as 61.8% Fibonacci level coincides with daily highs in April. Market turning higher slightly above this level suggests that others are eyeing the same level. Yesterday’s close was outside the lower 2 stdv Bollinger Band and should today’s close be inside the band probabilities of price rallying higher increase. The next significant resistance area is at 1.1084 to 1.1131.

 

2015-05-27_1216

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Apart from movements in CHF the price action in other currencies has been relatively small. Money has been moving into CHF from other major currencies and it is up by 40 to 50 basis points or more against all the other currencies except EUR. CHF has been especially strong against the JPY, up by over 0.75% at the time of writing. Euro’s relative strength against CHF adds to the EUR strength we are seeing against the USD and other majors. There is consistent JPY weakness even though the movements have most of the morning been subdued. An exception to this is CHFJPY. USD performance is a bit mixed after hitting a historical resistance level in DXY. From this point of view it’s interesting that EURUSD is close to a support, USDCAD is trading at resistance and NZDUSD close to a weekly support. Also USDCHF is reacting lower from a combination of historical resistance and upper Bollinger bands together with a 50 day SMA.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun) rose to 10.2 from 10.1. Economic confidence is improving, as is the willingness to buy, despite the fact that income expectations eased slightly. This is a confirmation that the German recovery remains on track.
  • Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75%. It will likely maintain a constructive outlook beyond Q1, expecting return to full capacity around the end of 2016. No change in rates through 2015 is expected.
  • Japan Retail Trade (YoY) is expected to increase by 5.4% in April. Previous result dropped 9.7% y/y in March from a revised -1.7% y/y in February (was -1.8% y/y previously). Large retailers saw a 13.0% y/y plunge after a 1.3% February gain. However, we have to take into account that sales surged in March 2014 ahead of the April tax hike.

 

2015-05-27_1205

 

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY Trading Near March High

USDJPY-Weekly

USDJPY Weekly

USDJPY has been moving side ways since the beginning of December 2014. The deepest correction has the retracement to 38.2% Fibonacci level in mid-December and was followed by another in January that attracted buyers just above the previous low.  Since then price has challenged the previous high once and after failing to penetrate the resistance it created a higher low. Now the pair has yet again moved to the upper weekly Bollinger Bands. At the same time we have the US Dollar Index at a level that resisted moves higher in March this year.

USD has been relatively strong against the JPY throughout period it has been correcting against the other currencies and as the weekly lows have been higher with the latest CPI number from States surprising to the upside it could well be that the upper end of this range will eventually give in. At the end of the day it is more likely that the US Fed will hike the rates before the Japanese central bank which could even come up with yet another round of stimulus.

USDJPY-daily

USDJPY Daily

Last week’s rally lifted USDJPY to the upper end of the range that has limited the pair’s movements since the end of the last year. Stochastics is overbought and price is reacting lower after moving above the upper daily Bollinger Band and also very close to the March high. If today’s daily candle closes to current levels or lower price has created a bearish shooting star candle. Stochastics is about to move below its three day moving average and could give a bearish signal should the weakness continue. Nearest support and resistance levels are 120.84 to 120.50 and 122.02.

USDJPY-240min

USDJPY 240 min

The pair fell lower after hitting a historical resistance at 121.68 and has since found support at a minor support level that coincides with a high from Wednesday last week. This lack of upside momentum and a correction lower has eased the overbought condition in this timeframe and brought the oscillators lower. The nearest more significant support area (120.83 – 120.61) is currently near the lower Bollinger Bands and 38.2% Fibonacci level while the next major resistance is at 122.02.

Conclusion

Price is trading close to a longer term resistance and we could see market creating an exhaustion candle (shooting star). Today’s price action however might not be that important as many significant markets have been on holiday. Whenever a market is trading close to a resistance one should be looking for shorting opportunities. This market is trading near its resistance levels and therefore I would only initiate long positions after a correction to a significant support. Due to divergent inflation expectations and relatively strong US economy the dollar yen pair should eventually move higher but as usual a low risk entry would be preferable.Taking advantage of corrections to significant support levels such as the range created by Friday’s low at 120.61 and 1.5 stdv Bollinger Bands at 120.83 would be a preferable strategy to buying close to a resistance. Look for confirming price action at the key levels. If aforementioned support level fails to attract buyers assumptions in this analysis need to be re-evaluated.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Today’s Currency Movers

EUR4

EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s weaker than expected existing home sales in US and a dip in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index supported forecasts for only tepid pick up in Q2 growth after a very weak Q1. The May Philadelphia Fed Survey disappointed. The figure came in at 6.7 instead of 8.0 expected by the analyst consensus. This increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current dovish stance.

EURUSD has been trading in the low-to-mid 1.11s, above Wednesday’s 1.1060 low. There was a lack of substantive progress at the latest summit in Riga between the Greek government and creditors in bailout negotiations. The on-going Grexit uncertainty might have been the reason the euro’s upside has been curtailed, while the May German IFO today should affirm the slowing in growth momentum that was seen in the ZEW and PMI surveys. ECB’s Draghi and BoE’s Carney are set to speak at an ECB conference on central banking in Portugal and today’s European data calendar is unlikely to give markets any reason to cheer. Another speaker worthy of mention is the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking later on today.

The resistance area created by the May 11th pivotal low has been holding EURUSD back but yesterday’s daily low was higher than the previous day’s low. This with the fact that price has moved higher from today’s open suggests modest bullishness on EURUSD. Daily bar lows also seem to honour a trendline drawn from April low. Stochastics are oversold and the lower Bollinger bands are catching up with the price. US Dollar index is looking weak as it’s trading below the shooting star candle lows from day before yesterday. Nearest support and resistance levels: 1.1052 and 1.1324.

2015-05-22_1035

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Modest EUR strength and USD and GBP weakness is dominating the Currency Movers charts today. AUD, NZD and JPY performance has been mixed. EURJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD and EURNZD are reacting higher from intraday supports and should EUR make a move today, these pairs are likely to follow.

Main Macro Events Today

  • German Gross Domestic Product (Q1) growth slowed to 0.3% q/q as expected, a significant decrease from the fourth quarter last year which was 0.7%. Still, taken the two quarters together, the underlying trend is robust. The very strong labour market, the rising wage growth and the boost to real disposable income from lower oil prices reinforced Q1.
  • US Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to remain unchanged, while the core index, which excludes food and energy products, is expected to rise to 1.7%, 0.1% lower compared to previous year’s result.
  • Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to expand to 1.0% in April, 0.2% lower compared to the previous month. It is seen rising 0.1% on a monthly comparable basis in April after the expansion of 0.7% m/m in March and 0.9% m/m in February.

 

2015-05-22_1031

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.