Free Forex Analysis for 10.30.2015

Free Forex Signals for 10.30.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

The CHF and CAD are rising against the USD, while the JPY is stronger against most currencies following the BoJ’s decision to keep rates steady. Today AUD and NZD were the main outperformers.

The RBNZ held rates steady, and the strength of the NZD may well force the central bank’s hand in December.

The EURUSD has moved back above 1.100, as the impact of the hawkish Fed statement on bond and forex markets is waning. The pair is still below the Oct-15 peak of 1.1495, but if Draghi’s dovish comments last week were designed to keep a lid on the EUR, the effect seems to be waning already. The EUR is little changed against most other currencies, but down against NZD, which has been gaining across the board after.

 

OCT 30 EURUSD V1

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD looks to be correcting higher and bouncing off the 1.09 support zone. Price remains below its weekly uptrend line and the most recent tentative downward slopping trend line. For the time being, price continues to receive macro support with relatively positive economic data being reported from the Eurozone. The pair had lost over 5% since the Oct-15 peak at 1.1495; I would expect EURUSD to remain a sell on rallies mode, with the ECB having readied markets for further stimulus.

OCT 30 EUR SR l

 

OCT 30 USDJPYV1

USDJPY, Daily

The BoJ disappointed many traders overnight, as policy was left on hold, resulting in a USDJPY sell off to 120.30 lows. The short-term trend is up as price is trading above the downward trend line (Aug – Oct), and price is above its 1 year moving average. Upside potential remains for a 121.80 target, on a break of 121.50, but losing 120.25 will point back towards 119.60.

OCT 30 USDJPY SRLs

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 10.30.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

The USD dropped back, after the Q3 GDP miss, and slightly better claims data.. The meager 1.5% rise in Q3 GDP and small 1k uptick in jobless claims was on balance, as the Fed says, policy will remain very accommodative even with a small lift-off. U.S. equities slipped lower after their impulsive rally yesterday in the wake of the hawkish FOMC hints.

EURUSD rebounded, after German Oct HICP inflation jumped to 0.2% y/y from -0.2% y/y in the previous month. The national CPI rate rose to 0.3% y/y from 0.0% y/y. Stronger than expected numbers, which lift the German headline rate out of negative territory again. The EURUSD rallied to 1.0986 from 1.0900. The German DAX fell off 0.6% after a mix of indicators and news that Deutsche Bank is laying off 35k staff and closing operations in several countries.

GBP U.K. consumer confidence came in weaker than expected, and dropped to 2 from 3 in the previous month. The pound logged a fresh low at 1.5242, making this the seventh straight daily lower low. The latest leg lower comes on the back of a EURUSD dip, though GBP has been on a weakening bias, which followed disappointing Q3 GDP data earlier in the week. GBPUSD closest support is at 1.5300, the Oct 13th low at 1.5200 provides the next downside support after 1.53.

Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, with 8-1 vote in favor of keeping QE steady. The USDJPY had been attempting to hold the 121 area, but fell back to 120.30 lows after the data, before recovering over 120.80. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei rose just 0.17% while the Shanghai Comp gained 0.36%.

China, the Yuan surged, the most since March following comments from China’s central bank indicating that it will test yuan capital account convertibility in a free trade zone in Shanghai. The People’s Bank of China earlier strengthened its daily onshore reference rate.

Main Macro Events Today

JPY Japan’s core CPI fell 0.1% y/y in September: which was a smaller decline than expected to match August’s 0.1% drop. But the core CPI (excludes fresh food) has still contracted for two straight months, moving in the opposite direction the BoJ is looking for. Total CPI was flat in September after the 0.2% y/y gain in August. The core-core, which excludes fresh food and energy, grew 0.9% y/y in September after the 0.8% rise in August. Meanwhile, the Tokyo core CPI fell 0.2% y/y in October after a matching 0.2% drop in September. The declines in national core CPI are supportive of further easing, if the BoJ feels it is necessary at this time. Other data showed a steady and expected 3.4% unemployment rate in September but a 0.4% y/y drop in household spending during September that ran contrary to expected growth.

EUR EMU Inflation: October HICP was seen rising to 0.1% y/y from -0.1% y/y in the previous month, but could surprise on the upside, following the higher than expected German HICP reading yesterday. Inflation may be moving out of negative territory again, but the trajectory remains very weak and a slightly better than expected number is unlikely to deter the doves at the ECB from further easing, although if hawks will feel strengthened in their argument that the central bank already has done enough, especially if the Fed hikes in December, which should also take some pressure of the ECB to hike again.

CAD GDP: It’s expected for GDP to rise 0.1% in August after the 0.3% gain in July. Further growth in August would contrast with the back to back declines seen from January to May, and track expectations for a rebound in Canada’s economy following the dismal performance in Q1 and Q2. The market anticipates a 3.0% Q3 GDP gain that will marginally outpace the BoC’s cautious 2.5% estimate..

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The second release on October Michigan Sentiment is out later today and its expect the headline to be revised up to 93.0 (median 92.5) from 92.1 in the first release and 87.2 in September. Michigan Sentiment has displayed a fairly consistent trend towards upward revisions in the second release but the October Consumer Confidence measure dropped to 97.6 from 102.6 in September which could signal downside risk for the second Michigan release.

U.S. Personal Income: September personal income data is out today and should show income up 0.1% (median 0.2%) with consumption growing 0.1% (median 0.2%) as well. There is downside risk to the release from the weak September employment report which saw aggregate income decline by 0.2% for the month on the back of softer hours worked data and a lower headline. Q3 GDP revealed a slower path of consumption which a 3.2% figure versus a stronger 3.9% in Q2.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Analysis for 10.29.2015

Free Forex Signals for 10.29.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

USDCAD rallied over 1.3220 from 1.3095 following the FOMC announcement, the commodity backdrop didn’t help the CAD either, as oil prices pulled back from $46 to $45.34 lows, and gold dropped from $1,178 to $1,162 on fears of a December Fed rate hike.

The USD gets a boast of strength, in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC Fed statement, 1.1000 now marks a minor resistance zone.

The AUD is broadly weaker, as the RBA is expected to refrain from cutting rates at its November policy meeting next week, according to the latest Reuters survey of economists. 17 of the 21 respondents expect a no change announcement, while the remaining four anticipate a 25 bp rate cut.

OCT 29 EURUSD V4

EURUSD, Daily

EUDUSD, remains below its weekly uptrend line, and is now bouncing off the July 20th low (1.0807). Intra-day, a small price rebound hit a high of 1.0976, and then turned back under 1.0960. The intra-day move higher coincided with an unexpected rise in the Eurozone economic confidence index. The EURUSD declined approximately 550 pips since mid October, after ECB’s president Mario Draghi announced expansion for QE program and Fed’s decision for no change regarding interest rates.

OCT 29 EURUSD Support Res

OCT 29 EURAUD V4

EURAUD, Daily

EURAUD key support at 1.56 broke to complete a short term top. The latest bounce may seek to leave a lower top near 1.56 ahead of a deeper drop towards 1.5190. Bearish moving average cross of the 10,50 SMA is spotted, price is below the tentative downward slopping trend line. Downward price momentum has turned bullish. EURAUD is expected to retest the key resistance level at 1.5600 and to continue its downtrend.

OCT 29 EURAUD Res.Support

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 10.29.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

FOMC hints of a hike as early as the next meeting, while maintaining the policy holding pattern, the Fed tone was a little less dovish than anticipated as it downgraded concerns over “global economic and financial developments. Yesterday’s FOMC repeated the economy continued expanding at a moderate pace, while leaving policy unchanged at 0%. The tone of the statement, however, is a little less dovish than expected as the Fed removed worries over global developments from its comments. Also the FOMC said “In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its NEXT meeting, which suggests some risk for a December rate hike. On the other hand, the Fed downgraded its outlook on jobs, saying the pace of gains has slowed and the unemployment rate has been steady. The FOMC also remains boxed in via its data dependency, because if growth and inflation continue to slow it will be difficult to argue for a December rate hike keeping the markets guessing for at least another month.

The USD is stronger, in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC Fed statement, which has been generally accepted as leaving the possibility of a rate hike in December on the table the EUR has generally weaken off the news. The EURUSD is now bouncing of 3 month lows (1.0890′s).

Japan industrial production rose, 1.0% m/m in the preliminary September report after falling 1.2% m/m in the final August reading. On an annual basis production fell 0.9% y/y after the 0.4% drop in August. Both results were better than expected, with the month comparable gain contrasting with projections for a decline. The improvement tempers the case for further BoJ easing this week.

Crude Oil is up, moving from near $43.50 at the open to highs near $45 ahead of the EIA inventory data, and later to $45.96 highs following a smaller than expected inventory build. A large systematic buy order was reportedly responsible for the early rally, which was fueled by stop-loss buying over the $44 level. The October 22 peak of $46.10 marks the next resistance level.

U.S. advance trade report showed a narrowing, in the deficit to $58.63 bln , for September, unwinding the surge to -$66.60 bln in August from -$59.8 bln in July. Imports declined 2.6% last month following a 1.8% increase in August, while exports rebounded 2.4% after falling 3.1% previously. Data will help fine tune estimates for the upcoming September trade report, due November 4, and suggest narrowing from the $48.3 bln shortfall registered in August.

ECB’s Coeure hints at further easing measures, deposit rate cut discussed. The executive board member said in a speech last night that if the ECB sees “a risk that inflation would go back to 2% much less quickly or in a much more sluggish way than previously expected, that would imply that the de facto real interest rate at this level would be higher”. He added that adjusting the deposit rate is “an open discussion, but its a discussion that has started”. Further confirmation then that the ECB may add further easing measures at the December meeting, when the adjusted set of economic forecasts is also due.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR Eurozone Prelim CPI: Eurozone preliminary HICP inflation for October, Germany and Spain will release national numbers today. It’s expected German HICP to rise to 0.1% y/y (median same) from -0.2% y/y and the Spanish harmonized rate to lift to -0.9% y/y from -1.1% y/y. Still very low numbers that will keep the doves at the ECB calling for further action in December.

USD GDP: Analyst expect Q3 GDP growth of 2.0% in the advance report, following 3.9% growth in Q2.Forecast risk: downward, given the potential for a bigger estimated inventory drawdown. Market risk: downward, as a weaker report could delay the Fed rate hike. Final sales growth is pegged at 3.5% in Q3, from 3.9% in Q2. Consumption growth is estimated at 3.6%, versus the same 3.6% in Q2. Fixed investment growth should rise to a 5.5% rate in Q3 from 5.2% in Q2. Equipment spending should expand at a 4.0% pace in Q3 from 0.3% in Q2.Residential construction growth is projected at 12.0% in Q3 from 9.3% in Q2. The intellectual property component should grow at a 5.5% rate in Q3, versus a 8.3% in Q2. Government spending should grow at a 0.8% rate in Q3, after a 2.6% rate in Q2. The chain price index should grow 0.8% in Q3, following a 2.1% Q2 pace. It’s expected that Q4 real GDP growth of 2.5%, with a 0.4% chain price gain.

USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 268k (median 263k) in the week-ended October 24. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,160k for the week-ended October 17. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could delay rate hike expectations. The 262k mark in the 4/25 release marked the lowest reading of the decade. Claims had been following a volatile downward trajectory since early October of last year. Claims are poised to average 262k in October from 269k in September, 275k in August and 272k in July. Claims revealed monthly averages of 310k-356k in 2013.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Silver is showing short term bullish clues

Silver is showing short term bullish clues

Silver (XAGUSD), Daily

Silver is showing short term bullish clues as it retraces the May High (17.760) August low (13.96) down trend. Silver price now looks to be consolidating in a bullish pennant pattern. Moving average analysis spots a bull cross of the 10, 50 SMA with current price testing the yearly moving average. Stochastic Oscillator analysis confirms bullish momentum. Technically, long positions can be supported for a price objection near resistance level R1 (16.80). Alternatively, any price break below the bullish pennant may call for a test of support level 14.70. Traders should now be on alert for a breakout trade set-up in either direction; however, the bias does remain to the upside.

OCT 28 Sliver SRL

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Analysis for 10.28.2015

Free Forex Signals for 10.28.2015

Today’s Currency Movers
  • The AUD is broadly weaker against the majors in the wake of disappointing CPI data.
  • The CAD is higher even though the BoC’s Lane did not offer anything new on policy or the economy, as expected.
  • The USD, EUR and GBP are mostly unchanged ahead of today’s start of the FOMC meeting.

OCT 28 AUDUSD V1

AUDUSD, Daily

Price looks to retest .7160 before continuation of its downtrend for a 0.7062 target in the immediate short term. Price has broken down through recent lows at .7200. Targets further out could be near 0.7100 and 0.7020. However attempts to form a higher low near 0.7260 could signal a potential recovery towards the .7400′s.

OCT 28 AUDUSD SR

OCT 28 USDCAD V3

USDCAD, Daily

Stochastic Oscillator analysis is starting to turn bearish. The medium term risk of a deeper retracement of the May to September 1.1922-1.3454 advance to a minimum of 1.2658-88 and possibly 1.2507-61 is possible; provided we get a solid break below the recent upward trend line. The longer-term trend does remain up. However, for the short term daily trader, I would expect any downward movement to stop near the 1.3180 – 1.3045 levels.

Oct 28 USDCAD SR

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS 10.27.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

The AUD provided the main action in overnight trade, the AUDUSD fell around 80 pips in making a three-week low at 0.7111, taking out its 50-day moving average at 0.7138 on route.

German GfK consumer confidence declines, confirming the downtrend in recent months. The low interest rate environment is making savings increasingly unattractive. At the same time, income expectations may have remained steady over the month, but have come down markedly since the summer and with business cycle expectations now in negative territory consumers are clearly starting to get concerned about the outlook.

German import price inflation weaker than expected, this continues to be driven by lower oil prices and the annual rate excluding oil related products remains in positive territory. Lower than expected import price inflation will gradual feed through to headline CPI numbers and therefore add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB, with the updated set of staff projections in December likely to bring another adjustment in inflation projections and delivering Draghi the justification for additional easing.

Australia Core CPI was below projections, putting perhaps some pressure on the RBA to ease again. CPI increased 0.5% in Q3. Australia CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y rate, matching the 1.5% y/y rate in Q2. CPI grew at a 1.3% y/y clip in Q1. Total CPI has run below 2.0% since Q4 of 2014, which was a 1.7% rate. The trimmed mean CPI slowed to a 2.1% y/y pace from a 2.2% y/y pace in Q2 and a 2.3% rate in Q1. The weighted median CPI expanded at a 2.2% y/y rate in Q3 after the 2.4% y/y clip in Q2 and the 2.5% clip in Q1.

Japan retail sales fell 0.2% y/y in Sep, September retail sales fell 0.2% y/y after rising 0.8% y/y in August. On the month sales edged up 0.7% versus unchanged previously. Large retailer sales slowed slightly to a 1.7% y/y pace from August’s 1.8%. (28-Oct). Household spending, or PCE rebounded 2.9% y/y in August after falling 0.2% y/y in July, and versus -2.0% y/y in June. (Aug 28). Consumer Confidence (SA) fell to 40.3 in July from 41.7 in June and 41.4 in May. (Aug 10).

Bank of Japan to Expand Stimulus, Slowing inflation growth alongside and a mixed domestic growth backdrop provide the Bank of Japan with the backing to expand already ample policy accommodation. The rate cut by China’s central bank and dovish guidance from the European Central Bank have stacked the deck in favor of further easing measures from the Bank of Japan, as we expect them to pursue a more is better approach to policy.

FOMC likely to hold firm with minimal changes to outlook, The FOMC meets today and tomorrow and there is virtually no chance for any changes in policy. But the policy statement will be scrutinized for any indications that December will be the start of the tightening process. It’s still the case that only the employment mandate is being met, while inflation is still lagging. But weakness in recent real sector data, including today’s September durables report, along with renewed erosion in commodity prices, and the firmer dollar, argue against accelerating growth and don’t suggest inflationary pressures will be on the rise anytime soon. Look for the Fed to modify its language, perhaps shifting its characterization on the economy from moderate to modest. It’s likely to downshift slightly its view on the labor market after say it’s “continued to improve” in the September statement. On inflation the Fed can reiterate it’s running below forecast, while market based measures have moved lower too. These factors put the FOMC in a difficult spot credibility-wise, especially those policymakers who are anxious to tighten now, as data are leaning to the contrary. Policymakers can’t be encouraged by the Q slowdown abroad either, and the more accommodative postures from the ECB, PBoC, and probably the BoJ, keep the Fed in a bind too.

Main Macro Events Today

USD Goods Trade Balance: The trade deficit has narrowed sharply since recent-highs early in 2012, and hovered close to levels seen in 2009 before the recent string of widening deficits that peaked in April. The September trade deficit is expected to contract 2.7% to -$47.0 bln after expanding 15.6% to -$48.3 bln in August. Exports in September are expected to decline 0.2% while imports show a 0.7% decrease on the month. The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to -$109.7 bln in Q2 from the -$118.3 bln deficit in Q1. Its expected for the deficit to be -$102 bln in Q3.

USD FOMC Statement: Few expect any move from the Fed this year, let alone in the off-month of October.

NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement: the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Shadow Board is sending the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) ahead of its Official Cash Rate (OCR) review today . The Board, comprised of nine economists and business leaders, is calling for RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler to leave the OCR at 2.75%. Wheeler has cut the OCR by 25 basis points on three occasions this year, indicating in his September Monetary Policy Statement, “Some further easing in the OCR seems likely”. NZIER senior economist Christina Leung recognizes that while inflation is very subdued at 0.4%, the economy will receive a boost.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD Analysis for 10.27.2015

EURUSD Update

 

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD failed to hold above its weekly uptrend line on a clean break below the 1.11 resistance. Now that the 6 month uptrend-line has been lost, we need to see if the 1.0990 low, as seen last week, will be retested before price makes an attempt towards 1.11 and possible 1.1170 in a return move. Momentum analysis remains towards the downside, although, I would expect to see some short term buying interest if the Stochastic can create a bull cross near the Stch.Os. 20 line. My multi-day conclusion on EURUSD price action is for a retest of Friday’s low (1.0996) before a return move towards 1.11 –1.1170.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 10.27.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Greek bailout payment delayed, Greece is once again behind in the implementation of the agreed reforms and so far only 14 of the 48 “milestones” have been implemented. A delay of the reform plan and the payout likely also means a delay in the reform of the banking and finance system, including the recapitalization of banks.

Commodities were on the defensive, but the CAD was range bound near 1.3160 since the open. The lack of price action came as oil prices were steady near $43.5 – $44.00 and as the risk backdrop remains quiet.

Gold been relatively steady, following last week’s dollar rally inspired sell-off. Gold traded near the two-week low under of $1,160/ounce on Friday, and currently trades at $1165. Copper meanwhile, topped out at $2.381/lb earlier, and have since fallen back to $2.351, with softer U.S. home sales data weighing. Copper remains up on the session.

USDJPY given back some gains, the pair has gained considerable ground since last week, as the dovish ECB and the aggressive PBoC combined to rally the dollar broadly. With the China rate cut having many market players up the BoJ’s ante to add to QE this week, USD-JPY gains may well hold.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. Gross Domestic Product: U.K. GDP numbers for Q3, with the quarterly growth rate expected to slow to 0.6% (med same) from 0.7%.

• USD Durable Goods Orders: September durable goods data is out today and should reveal a 0.8% (median -1.0%) decline for orders on the month with shipments unchanged and inventories growing by 0.1%. This compares to respective August figures of -2.3% for orders, -0.2% for shipments and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with analyst forecast would leave the I/S ratio for the month at 1.66 from 1.65 in both August and July.

• USD Consumer Confidence: October Consumer Confidence is out today and should reveal a 104.0 (median 102.8) headline, up from 103.0 in September and 101.3 in August. Other confidence measures have improved in October with Michigan Sentiment rising to 92.1 from 87.2 and the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 47.3 from 42.0.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD for 10.26.2015

Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday. No changes are expected at this week’s FOMC meeting, especially after China’s rate cut and further QE comments from the ECB last week. The markets are not pricing in much chance for hike until perhaps after March. If Fed policymakers were worried about growth and prices at last month’s meeting, they can not be encouraged by the recent downbeat developments about global growth. The firming in the dollar will only make it more difficult for the FED Committee to be confident in meeting its price mandate anytime soon too, which likely rules out action at the December meeting. Economic data this week will show an economy that continues to expand, but at a slower pace in Q3 as the Advance Q3 GDP release is seen slowing to a 1.7% pace from the 3.9% growth rate in Q2. Another weak durable orders report is projected: September orders are seen falling 1.0% after the 2.3% drop in August. The ECI will accelerate to a 0.6% growth rate in Q3, according to the survey median, from the 0.2% gain in Q2.

Europe: A heavy data week in the Eurozone that will focus on October confidence readings and preliminary inflation numbers. PMI readings came in better than expected, which means there is some room for upside surprises. French and Italian PPI, German import prices, German retail sales, French consumer spending and Italian business confidence. The German Ifo Business Climate (Monday) is seen falling to 108.1 (median 107.8) from 108.5, led by a drop in the current conditions indicator following the slump in orders. Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence (Thursday) meanwhile is expected to ease slightly to 105.3 (median 105.1) from 105.6 following the mixed leads from better than expected PMI reading and the marked drop in the preliminary consumer confidence figure. The latter is likely to be followed by another decline in German GfK Consumer Confidence to 9.4 (median same) from 9.6.

• United Kingdom: This weeks U.K. data brings the October CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), the first estimate of Q3 GDP (Tuesday), the monthly batch of BoE lending data (Thursday), the CBI distributive sales survey (also Thursday), and, finally, the October Gfk consumer confidence survey (Friday). The main market focus will be clearer picture of moderate growth in Q3, strong mortgage lending and rising lending to businesses, along with an uptick in consumer confidence. It is also anticipate that the CBI surveys will show some moderation, correcting in the case of the sales sector poll following a very strong number in September.

• Japan: Japan month end data could set up the for the BoJ to consider its next QQE stimulus on Friday, following the ECB and PBoC rate cuts. Bank of Japan data this week includes, retail sales, personal income and consumption, and employment data. September services PPI (Tuesday) is expected to ease to 0.6% y/y from 0.7%. September retail sales (Wednesday) are forecast to fall to 1.0% y/y from the prior 1.8% for large retailers, and dip to 0.5% y/y from 0.8% for total retail sales. The balance of the calendar comes on Friday, and includes September national CPI, expected to fall to -0.1% y/y from 0.2% on a headline basis, and to -0.3% y/y from -0.1% on a core basis. October Tokyo CPI is seen unchanged at -0.1% y/y for headline, and unchanged at -0.2% for the core reading. September unemployment is seen steady at 3.4%, as is the job offers/seekers ratio at 1.23. September personal income is forecast at 1.0% y/y from 2.2% previously, with PCE expected to fall to 1.0% y/y from 2.9% in August. September housing starts are penciled in at a 4.0% y/y rise, from 8.8% in August. September construction orders are also due. The BoJ meets Friday, and following China’s lead last week, it’s expected that the Bank to increase its prior JPY 80 tln QE efforts to JPY 100 tln, taking the monetary base target to JPY 345 tln from JPY 325 tln.

• China: China’s calendar is light, with just September leading indicators set for Thursday.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar of economic data this week. The Q3 CPI (Tuesday) is seen expanding at a 0.6% pace (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% growth rate in Q2. The Q3 PPI (Thursday) is expected to gain 0.2% (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% gain in Q2. Trade prices (Wednesday) are expected to reveal a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) for Q3 import prices and a 0.8% increase in import prices. There are no speakers from the RBA this week. The RBA meets on November 3, and its expected no change to the current 2.00% policy setting.

• New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the RBNZ announcement (Thursday). It is a close call between no change and a cut, but its expected a 25 basis point reduction to 2.50% as the bank continues to lean against strong external headwinds. The trade deficit (Wednesday) is projected to narrow to -NZ$1.000 bln in September from -NZ$1.035 bln in August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.