ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD for 11.30.2015

Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The U.S economic calendar is heavy at the start of the new month, with several important reports due this week, NFP for November employment numbers (Friday). An increase of 200k is forecast, with a steady 5.0% unemployment rate. Those should be more than strong enough to support expectations for rate liftoff. Other market moving data includes the ADP number (Wednesday), expected to show private payrolls rising 190k. ISMs are due, with the manufacturing index (Tuesday) expected to edge up to 50.5 from 50.1. The services index (Thursday) is projected to slip to 57.5 from 59.1, though still reflecting solid growth in the sector. Fed Chair Yellen speaks on monetary policy (Wednesday, Thursday), Yellen will also address the Economic Club of Washington (Wednesday), and then she testifies before the JEC (Thursday). Her speech should reiterate that a rate hike is likely appropriate this year.

Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) highlights a busy week for Canadian data. Analysts expect no change to the current 0.50% policy setting, alongside a repeat of the bank’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook. The economic data calendar has November employment (Friday), expected to fall 10.0k after the 44.4k surge in October. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.0%, matching the 7.0% in October. Real GDP (Tuesday) is seen rebounding to a 2.3% growth pace in Q3 (q/q, saar) after contracting 0.5% in Q2. But September GDP (Tuesday) is seen flat following the 0.1% gain in August. The trade deficit (Friday) is anticipated to improve to a -C$1.5 bln in October from the -C$1.7 bln shortfall in September. Productivity (Friday) should rise 0.2% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% decline in Q2 as rising hours are outpaced by the expected retu rn to GDP growth. The current account deficit (Monday) is projected to narrow to -C$14.5 bln in Q3 from -C$17.4 bln in Q2. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is expected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 54.0 in November from 53.1 in October.

Europe: The immediate focus is on the ECB meeting (Thursday), with markets looking to Draghi again. There remains the likely scenario for a cut in the deposit rate. Data releases this week , German HICP (Monday) , the overall Eurozone CPI reading (Wednesday) is seen at 0.3% y/y (median same), up from 0.1% y/y. Headline rates, as well as core inflation, have been trending higher, though that hasn’t stopped Draghi and Constancio from reviving talk about deflation risks in the Eurozone.

UK: This week’s calendar features the BoE lending data for October (Monday). The Markit PMI surveys will be released too, starting with the manufacturing sector survey (Tuesday), followed by construction PMI (Wednesday) and services PMI (Friday).

Japan: Preliminary October industrial production (Monday)is seen falling 0.5% m/m, versus the 1.1% gains seen in September. October retail sales (Monday) are expected up 0.5% y/y from the prior 1.7% gain for large retailers, and down 0.5% from -0.2% overall. October housing starts (Monday) are seen up 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, while October construction orders (Monday) are also due. The Q3 MoF capex survey (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 1.0% y/y from the previous 5.6% rise. November Markit/JMMA PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 52.8 from 52.4. November consumer confidence (Friday) likely advanced to 41.6 from 41.5.

China: PMI reports (Tuesday) are on tap. The official CFLP November manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.5 from 49.8. The Caixin/Markit PMI outcome is seen at 48.2 from 48.3, while the services PMI is forecast to rise to 53.0 from 52.0.

Australia: The AUD calendar is highlighted by the RBA’s meeting (Tuesday). Analyst expect no change to the current 2.00% rate setting, but economic data has been disappointing of late so the risk is skewed towards another 25 basis point rate cut. The economic data calendar is busy. GDP (Wednesday) is expected to improve to a 0.5% growth rate in Q3 (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q2. The current account (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to a -C$17.0 bln deficit from -C$19.0 bln in Q2. Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in October following the 2.2% gain in September. The trade deficit (Thursday) is seen worsening to -A$2.8 bln in October from -A$2.3 bln in September. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to raise 0.3% m/m in October following the 0.4% gain in September. The TD-MI inflation gauge is expected to raise 0.1% m/m in November after the flat reading in October.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Dovish BoE speak could break a key GBPUSD support

Dovish BoE speak could break a key GBPUSD support

GBPUSD, Daily

The GBP has under-performed this week after BoE governor Carney said that the low interest rate environment is likely to remain for some time, while his colleague Haldane said that inflation risks were “skewed materially to the downside.” This Dovish BoE speak is seen as a driver for the GBP weakness, as it suggest that the BoE will wait till after the U.S. Fed and ECB rate moves to take effect before making any move. Technically, the GBP has further downside potential towards the 1.4960′s with room for a deeper mover lower near the 1.4890’s-60.

The downside move could be interrupted provided the key 1.5025 support holds, meaning it could support a potential price bounce for a lower top below 1.5335. The current strategy calls for selling into any signs of strength for an initial 1.4960 target, with stops near 1.5335.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO NEWS & EVENTS for 11.27.2015

Macro News & Events

FX News Today

U.S. calendar empty today, bond and stock markets will close early.

FX markets are mostly quite over the last 24 hours , with the dollar up slightly versus the EUR and GBP, and 0.1% down on the yen.

The Shanghai Composite closed 5.5% lower its worst daily decline since August. Other markets in the Asia region fared better, though most were down. The catalyst behind the sell-off in China was news that a number of brokerages are being investigated for alleged violation of securities regulations.

Data out of Japan today were mixed, and didn’t have a big impact on markets. Headline CPI 0.3% y/y in October, but the core figure was -0.1%, and household spending dove 2.4% last month, adding to a 0.4% decline in September. Japanese unemployment fell to a 20-year low of 3.1% in October, down from 3.4%, but this was down to a shrinking labour force. The most-recent survey by Reuters found nearly all respondents expecting the BoJ to expand monetary policy at its January meeting, and today’s data shouldn’t change this picture much.

NYMEX crude has drifted lower, in line with broader commodity retreat. A 961k bbl rise in crude stocks. Analyst had been expecting a 1.0 mln bbl increase. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 mln bbls actually rose 2.5 mln bbls, while distillate stocks were up 1.0 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 0.5 mln bbl fall. Refinery usage rose to 92.0% from 90.3%.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR German Import Price Index: fell to -4.1% y/y in October, from -4.0% y/y in the previous month. Expectations had been for a slight rise and the fall back will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB ahead of next week’s council meeting, especially excluding energy the annual rate dropped to 0.3% y/y from 0.7% y/y, as basic goods prices drop -2.1% y/y. Annual rates for capital goods as well as consumer goods remained steady with the latter at 2.1% y/y, highlighting that energy and basic goods prices remain the main drag on the headline rate.

UK house price inflation: has come off a bit according to November data from Nationwide, which reports prices rose by 3.7% y/y, down from 3.9% y/y in October. The Bloomberg market median had been for a 4.2% rise. Price increases have oscillated between 3% and 4% y/y over the past six months, which have been “broadly consistent” with earnings, by the estimates of Nationwide, though the lender still points to a “dearth” of supply. Strong BBA mortgage approvals data this week suggests that the demand side of the equation will remain strong in the months ahead.

EUR Consumer Confidence: Italian consumer confidence jumped to a 20-year high of 118.4 in November, from 117.0 in the previous month. The much stronger than expected reading backs the unexpected improvement in preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence released last week and ties in with the upside surprises in PMI and Ifo readings, which in turn suggest that today’s ESI is also likely to come in higher than anticipated. Not much there to back the arguments of the doves at the ECB, but with Draghi and Co reviving deflation fears, this won’t prevent the central bank from further action next week. French consumer spending dropped -0.7% m/m in October, a much sharper than anticipated decline that brought the annual rate down to 2.1% y/y from 2.6% y/y in September. These are numbers from before the Paris attacks, which together with the mixed French PMI readings this month highlight that the second largest Eurozone economy remains subject to downside risks.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Free Forex Analysis for 11.26.2015

Free Forex Signals for 11.26.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

The GBP has come under pressure; the pound has underperformed against the majors after a dovish BoE speech is helping to drag the GBP lower. BoE governor, Carney said that the low interest rate environment is likely to remain for some time, while his colleague, Haldane said that inflation risks were “skewed materially to the downside.”

The USD trades mostly higher; the economic numbers for the US have continued to be positive and are assumed to be supporting USD buyer interest. Home sales are up, consumer confidence is up and durable and durable goods orders don’t look bad.

The JPY has performed better than other G10 currencies. The USDJPY pair post a 9 day low at 122.25, The course of BoJ policy is somewhat unclear, but there is a good chance that it will make a further monetary expansion. The BoJ next meets on policy on Dec-18, after the December meetings of the ECB and Fed.

The AUDUSD is lower across the board, after a drop off in Private Capital Expenditure q/q at -9.2% vs -2.8% expected and -4.4% previously, pointing to a slowdown in economic conditions as businesses are not expanding their capital base.

 

NOV 26 GBPJPY V2
GBPJPY, Daily

Price made a downward penetration of the upwards sloping trend line, starting on 2nd of October. However, Stochastic found below 20 levels indicates that price may move further upward. Current price is holding above it’s current daily 50 SMA with price seen as consolidating around the 185 area, the failure to build a new base near the 185 levels may signal that recent highs at 188.80 may have been the daily top of the market leaving open the possibility for a return towards 183.88.

Nov 26 GBPJPY SRL

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD AT 7 MONTH LOW ON ECB EASING SPECULATION

EURUSD at 7 Month Low on ECB Easing Speculation

EURUSD, Daily (Updated)

EURUSD touched fresh 7-month lows of 1.0565, before rallying back over 1.0600, with pre-holiday short covering in play. The EUR, though, is still a bearish market, and with the inevitable interest differential widening becoming more apparent, the USD will continue to grind higher against the EUR over time, until we see a shift in the ECB policy. The next EURUSD downside target (S2) in at 1.0520, representing the April low. Continued downward pressure on the EUR is also supported by speculation of further ECB easing as early as next week’s ECB meeting, following a Reuters report saying central bankers are discussing two tiered charges on banks’ deposits and further bond buying.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

MACRO NEWS & EVENTS for 11.26.2015

Macro News & Events

FX News Today

The U.S. markets are closed today, and the U.S., calendar is empty until next week.

Speculation of further easing from the ECB next week should keep pressure on the EUR, the EUR is down against Yen and USD. The European calendar today focuses on Eurozone M3 numbers.

Stock markets continue to recover, as gains in commodity producers and carmakers drive European stocks up.

Base metal prices are higher today, in the wake of a Bloomberg report highlighting that China may investigate “malicious” short selling of iron ore at local metal exchanges. Copper prices had been trading at six-year lows earlier in the week. Oil prices are showing a decline currently, reversing some of rally seen over the previous three days.

BoE governor Carney, said that the low interest rate environment is likely to remain for some time. The GBPUSD now trades below 1.5100, and near the lowest point seen in the last 17 days.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR M3 Money Supply: Eurozone M3 money supply growth accelerated to 5.3% y/y in October, from 4.9% y/y in the previous month. Expectations had been for a steady annual rate, so the data were higher than expected. Loan growth meanwhile accelerated with household loans rising 1.2%, vs 1.1% in the previous month, and business loans up 0.6%, versus 0.1% in September. Strong data.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 11.25.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

The U.S. calendar is busy today ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. Weekly jobless claims are a day early due to Thursday’s holiday, and are expected to rise to 285k from 271k.

European calendar quiet today, with Italian orders, retail sales, U.K. BBA lending.

Crude Oil has made two week highs of $43.40, as geopolitics are seen as the market mover following Turkey’s downing of a Russian military jet. Also providing support to price is the slightly softer dollar, also a rationale for traders to close short positions ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving break.

U.S. reports yesterday revealed an expected Q3 GDP growth boost to 2.1% from 1.5%. Personal income revisions for both Q2 and Q3 saw a sharp raise in the savings rate, as will be reinforced in today’s monthly income report. The higher savings rate could be seen as evidence of greater household caution, though it also leaves room for a stronger consumption path into 2016.

The Fed discount rate minutes showed 9 District banks voted to hike the rate at its October 26 meeting. That’s one more than at the prior meeting on September 15, as the Boston Fed joined the ranks of those voting for a 25 bp increase in the primary credit rate to 1.0%. The number of District banks voting for an increase has been on the rise all year; in January 9 banks had voted to maintain a steady rate. Directors generally noted positive economic conditions, and those arguing for a tightening saw improving conditions in the labor market which should help boost inflation. This adds to the speculation that the FOMC will vote to lift rates at its December 15th, 16th policy meeting.

The U.K. CBI survey showed a much lower than expected reported sales reading for November, which dropped to 7 from 19 in the previous month. At the same time BoE members sounded dovish, with Chief Economist Haldane saying in his annual report that the balance of risks to growth and inflation outlooks is skewed materially to the downside, more so than reflected in the November inflation report. BoE’s Carney warned that the low interest rate environment is likely to remain for some time to come and BoE’s Forbes said the bank probably won’t have to implement further easing, and that the next rate move is probably more likely to be a hike.

Main Macro Events Today

USD Durable Goods Orders (Oct): October durable orders are seen rebounding 0.5% after the 1.2% September drop. Analyst forecast October personal income to increase 0.4%, from September’s weak 0.1% rise, while PCE is seen up 0.4% as well, from the 0.1% increase previously.

USD Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly jobless claims are a day early due to Thursday’s holiday, and are expected to rise to 285k from 271k.

USD New Home Sales: October new home sales are expected to bounce 2.6% to 480k from the prior 11.5% drop to 468k. The September FHFA home price index is forecast at 225.4 from 224.9.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 11.24.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

EURUSD is slightly firmer today, after printing a new seven month low of 1.0592 yesterday. The market will now focus on the up- coming data releases out of Europe, while the U.S. has economic data to be released later today.

Commodity prices largely stabilized, with oil prices picked up in overnight trade. The oil market has been choppy after Saudi Arabia said it was ready to work with other OPEC members to stabilize the market.

German Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q, as expected. The breakdown, which was released for the first time, was pretty much as expected with strong domestic demand helping to compensate for a negative contribution from net exports. Consumption is holding up the economy, but also boosting import growth, although the sharp rise in government consumption of 1.3% q/q was a bit of a surprise. The data confirms pronounced investment weakness over the summer, with machinery and equipment investment down -0.8% q/q and construction investment down -0.3% q/q. Not really a picture of balanced growth, even if for once this recovery is not export led, but consumption led.

German Nov Ifo, the stronger than expected PMI readings for Germany yesterday coupled with the improvement in the ZEW and the rise in Eurozone consumer confidence all back our forecasts for a slight rise in the German Ifo Business Climate index to 108.3 (med 108.1), versus 108.2 in October. The improved numbers, as well as vocal resistance against additional QE measures make it unlikely that the central bank will expand its asset purchase program next week, but in our view won’t prevent another cut in the deposit rate, especially as even some of the hawks seem to agree that the zero lower bound has moved since the ECB first introduced negative rates.

Main Macro Events Today

The German Ifo index: Beat expectations and jumped to 109 from 108.2 in the previous month. Expectations had been for a broadly steady number, but with both current conditions and future expectations indices moving up, the overall index rose to the highest level since June last year. The diffusion index, shows optimists outnumber pessimists in all sectors, although most notably is the rebound in manufacturing confidence, which belies the weak orders data, concerns about slowing growth in emerging markets and the emission scandal. Bund futures actually moved higher going into the data and took a while to come off highs after the release, but the strong round of confidence data backs our view that a widening of the ECB’s asset purchase program at the current juncture is unlikely, although another cut in the deposit rate further into negative territory remains on the cards.

USD GDP: Analyst expect that Q3 GDP to be revised up to 2.1% from 1.5% in the first report, following 3.9% growth in Q2. Forecast risk: downward, given the huge inventory boost that might be absorbed via price assumptions. Market risk: downward, as a weaker report could delay the Fed rate hike. Inventories are expected to be revised up by $28 bln. Net exports should be revised down by $2 bln. Construction spending should be revised down by $1 bln. Consumption spending should be revised down by $1 bln.

USD Consumer Confidence: November Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 98.5 from 97.6. This compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: upward, given the increase in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike time-lines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Intraday volatility in oil at support after Saudi comments

Intraday volatility in oil at support after Saudi comments

Crude Oil, Weekly

San Francisco Fed president Williams: said over the weekend that there is a “strong case” for a December rate hike. This sparked a dollar rally and some commodity volatility this morning. Today the Washington Post said that Saudi Arabia’s government is willing to cooperate with other producers to maintain stable prices. Therefore it’s not surprising that Nymex crude has had a mixed trading day today. Crude oil had a gap opening higher (we’ve been talking about Crude being at support!) in start of the futures trading.  Then oil slid lower before bouncing higher again. Commodity currencies underperformed, with USDCAD whipsawing up and down with the oil market.

In the weekly picture crude oil has been forming a vast bullish wedge formation. This price action is taking place near multi-year low that took place in 2009. Current price action is taking place at lower Bollinger Bands and near a 37.75 support from August this year. Stochastics are oversold and the last week’s bar was a narrow range candle with open and closing prices near each other. Such candles signal that supply and demand are in a relative balance. Nearest resistance level is at 42.58 while the nearest support level is at 37.75.

Chart_15-11-23_16-57-37

Crude Oil, Daily

In the latest Live Analysis Webinar we focused on the fact that Crude oil was trading at a pivotal support (37.75 – 40.50) while the USDCAD has been trading near this year’s highs. This combination suggests that both markets are near potential turning points. Today’s opening gap to the upside together with OPEC’s comments supports the view while the bullish pin bar (a hammer) from Friday suggests the same. Stochastics, RSI and Money Flow Index are edging up from oversold levels. Today’s price advance was turned as the pivotal resistance at 42.58 invited sellers to push the price down yet again. Support area: is a pivotal candle support at 37.75 – 40.51 while resistance levels are at 42.58, 45.90 and 48.32.

Chart_15-11-23_16-58-03

Crude Oil, 240 min

The 42.65 proved to be too much for the oil bulls to handle and today’s rally was quickly rejected. The last 4h candle from Friday is bullish but today’s failure to challenge the resistance takes some of its edge away. Price is not trending lower anymore in this timeframe and there is some attempt to change direction from the support.

Conclusion

In the latest Live Analysis Webinar we identified the 37.75 to 40.50 area as potential support and 42.60 as a resistance. These S&R areas have proven to be highly valuable as Crude Oil has been bouncing between the levels. This is a good example of how fundamental information impacts the market and the technical levels as still very valid and valuable. The increased volatility with an opening gap suggest that market participants put two and two together and are looking for a turnaround in oil. However, the sideways move in the weekly chart is fairly near and could cause sideways action between it and the below support range. Saudi comments suggest oil market is near levels where the turnaround can actually take place.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Economic Week Ahead for 11.23.2015

The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

  • United States: The US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday will see activity condensed into the first three days of the week. While the data calendar is highlighted with several important releases, including revised GDP, personal income, consumption, durable orders, housing stats, and consumer confidence, none are crucial enough to materially alter expectations for a Fed rate liftoff. October existing home sales (today) are expected to fall 1.8% to a 5.45 mln unit rate, unwinding some of the 4.7% rebound to 5.550 mln in September following the 5.0% drop to 5.300 mln in August. Q3 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to be revised higher to a 2.1% clip in the second release, from the disappointing 1.5% pace seen in the Advance report. However that is still considerably slower than Q2′s 3.9% rate. Global growth remains a major uncertainty, and especially in Asia. Consumer confidence for November (Tuesday) is seen rising to 98.5 after falling 5 points to 97.6 in October. Personal income and consumption figures for October (Wednesday) should help fine tune Q4 GDP forecast too. We’re forecasting gains of 0.4% for each and the strength from the employment report suggests upside risks. New home sales (Wednesday) are forecast bouncing 2.6% to a 480k pace in October after diving 11.5% in September to 468k. The housing sector remains choppy and generally disappointing. October durable goods orders (Wednesday) should edge up 0.5%, hardly correcting from the cumulative 4.2% decline from August and September, though weakness was mostly led by transportation.
  • Canada: Canada’s economic calendar is somewhat thin this week (Friday), with the industrial product price index (IPPI) the only top tier report. We expect October IPPI to fall 0.5% (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September as lower gasoline prices, a firm loonie and weaker commodity prices weigh on industrial prices. The establishment employment survey (Thursday) will provide earnings and employment figures for September. The results are fairly dated, with the timely labour force survey showing a 44.4k surge in October jobs and a dip in the unemployment rate to 7.0% from 7.1%. Nevertheless, the employment figures from the establishment survey are of interest, as is the earnings figure. We expect average weekly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.7% drop in August. Corporate profits for Q3 (Thursday) are also due out from Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson (Tuesday) conducts a presentation at the University of Regina Regina, SK. The appearance, which is part of the Bank’s regional outreach program, is the final scheduled event before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement on December 2. We expect no change to the current 0.50% policy rate or to the growth and inflation outlook presented in October.
  • Europe: Preliminary November PMI readings (today) kicked off the week and the French PMI’s disappointed with the manufacturing reading managed to carve out a slight gain – to 50.8 from 50.6, but the services reading dropped sharply to 51.3 from 52.7, which saw the composite falling to 51.3 from 52.6 in October. The German PMI’s came in better than expectations and above the previous month’s figures: services 55.6 vs. median of 54.3, manufacturing 52.6 vs. median of 56 and composite 54.9 vs. median of 54. The German Ifo Business Climate index (Tuesday) is seen little changed at expected 108.3 (med 108.1), versus 108.2 in October. France and Italy also release November confidence data and the week ends with the release of the European Commission’s ESI Economic Confidence reading on Friday, where we look for a marginal improvement to 106.0 (median same) from 105.9 in October. The preliminary consumer confidence reading already surprised on the upside, but again, in the current climate, even better than expected numbers are unlikely to change Draghi’s course and weaker readings will only add to the doves’ arguments. The second release of German Q3 GDP is expected to confirm the 0.3% q/q growth rate reported with the initial release, leaving the focus on the breakdown, which will almost certainly show that for once German growth is boosted by consumption and domestic demand rather than net exports. Indeed, across the Eurozone, consumers are propping up the economy and despite the ECB’s deflation warnings, there is no sign that purchases are being postponed in anticipation of price cuts, on the contrary.
  • United Kingdom: The latest CBI distributive sales survey (Tuesday), BBA mortgage approvals (Wednesday), and Gfk consumer confidence and the second estimate for Q3 GDP (both Friday). We forecast the CBI retail survey showing an improvement in the headline realized sales balance for November, to +24 (median +25) from October’s +19 reading. Strong rises in real average household incomes and record levels of employment have and should continue to underpin the sector. BBA mortgage approvals for October should recover some of the unexpected dip seen in September data, to 44.5. We expect a reading of 45.5, which would still be short of the cycle peak seen in August, at 46.7. As for the Gfk consumer confidence survey, we anticipate an unchanged reading of +2 (median same). The second estimate Q3 GDP report is widely expected to show +0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y growth, unchanged from the preliminary readings.
  • China: no data releases this week.
  • Australia: RBA Governor Stevens (Tuesday) speaks at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks at the FX Week Europe conference in London (Wednesday). Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the Q3 private capital expenditures survey (Thursday), expected to reveal a repeat 4.0% drop (q/q, sa) after the 4.0% pull-back in Q2 as ongoing uncertainty over Australia’s growth prospects maintains caution on the part of firms.
  • Japan: Japanese markets are closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving Day. The release schedule gets underway Wednesday with October services PPI, expected to dip to a 0.5% y/y pace versus the 0.6% outcome previously. Revised September leading and coincident indices (Wednesday) are seen unchanged from preliminary readings of -2.1% m/m and -0.3% m/m, respectively. CPI data (Friday) should show the October national headline inching up to a 0.1% y/y pace versus unchanged. The core reading is expected to fall to -0.2% y/y from the prior -0.1% outcome. November Tokyo headline is forecast unchanged at 0.1% y/y, with core seen steady at -0.2% y/y. October unemployment (Friday) will likely reveal an unchanged 3.4% rate, while the job offers/seekers ratio is seen steady at 1.24.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.