Sterling Strong – Awaiting CPI data

GBPUSD, Daily      

Sterling has rallied strongly on news that the latest Brexit poll by ORB shows 55% wanting to remain in the EU and just 40% wanting to leave. Ladbrokes now giving 75% odds for UK to remain in the EU, up from 71% this time yesterday. The poll was reported in the Daily Telegraph newspaper, with the The Guardian newspaper publishing a separate  ICM poll showing the Remain camp 8% ahead of the Leave. GBPUSD continued to rally is currently trading over 1.4500 at new weekly highs at 1.4515.

Interestingly,  the Daily candle found support at the 50 DMA yesterday at 1.4340, with the 20 DMA higher at 1.4475.

UK CPI data is published at 08:30 GMT and expectations are for unchanged data at 0.5% year on year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

US Consumer Sentiment – A Big Beat

2016-05-13_17-20-15

GBPUSD, Daily    

US preliminary May consumer sentiment jumped 6.8 points to 95.8, much stronger than expected, after dipping 2 points to 89.0 in April. It is the highest since last June, and recently has been high as 98.1, reached in January 2015 (which was the best in over a decade). The current conditions index rose to 108.6 from 106.7. The expectations index climbed almost 10 points to 87.5 from 77.6, and is the biggest increase since 2006. The 12-month inflation gauge slid to 2.5% from 2.8%, while the 5-year index sped up slightly to 2.6% from 2.5%.

The Michigan sentiment bounce to a 95.8 eleven-month high reversed a four-month string of declines to 89.0 in April from 92.6 in December, as the index rises well above the 87.2 ten-month low in September but below the 98.1 cycle-high in January of 2015 that marked the strongest reading since January of 2004. The pattern of upward revisions in “final” Michigan sentiment reports has dissipated, given boosts in just four of the last ten months, and an average revision in 2016 of zero. We saw prior average boosts of 0.4 in 2015, 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. We will assume a 95.8 “final” print for May. For other May measures, the IBD/TIPP index rose to 48.7 from 46.3, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index slipped to 41.7 in the second week of May from 42.0 in the prior week and a 43.0 average in April, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. We expect a consumer confidence rise to 95.0 from 94.2 in April but a higher 96.1 in March, versus a 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015.

More positive news for the USD today, USDIndex rallies to a two week high at 94.7 and GBPUSD falls to three week low at 1.4361.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBP – Choppy after data and press conference

2016-05-12_15-30-35

GBPUSD, 1 hr     

Sterling saw choppy price action following the BoE’s triple serving of Announcement, Minutes and Inflation Report, partly reflecting difficulties markets have in digesting the sheer quantity of information (up until this year all three of these were released separately, spaced by one-week intervals). The pound initially dipped against both the dollar and euro as news of lowered growth projections (Q2 growth now seen at +0.3% q/q from +0.5% in February) and raised Brexit warnings hit the headlines. The currency subsequently more than recovered these losses, and both Cable and EUR-GBP are presently sitting at near unchanged levels relative to their respective bids seen just ahead of the announcement.

The BoE left inflation forecasts near unchanged and maintained that the next policy move would likely be a tightening. It also emphasized that economic and financial indicators are likely to be less informative than usual due to Brexit uncertainties. It seems that both sterling markets and the BoE are in a wait-and-see mode. Much will depend on the evoluation of polling outcomes as the Jun-23 referendum draws nearer. The FT Brexit poll tracker currently has 46% for “Remain” and 43% for “Leave,” while Ladbroke betting odds show 71% for the UK to remain in the EU.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK GDP Up 0.3% – In line with expectations

2016-05-11_17-17-29

GBPUSD, H1   

The NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) confirmed its GDP estimate for the UK at 0.3% for the three months to April. This was in line with expectations, with the previous figure upgraded to 0.4% from 0.3%.

The UK continues to grow but it’s stumbling along, the Brexit  debate and the global outlook continues to hang over growth prospects.  This is no surprise and ammunition for both sides in the EU referendum debate.

Following the poor production data earlier today sterling came under pressure but has recovered, GDPUSD currently trades at 1.4440 whilst the EURGBP is now over the 0.7900 level.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Production Falls

2016-05-11_11-57-13

GBPUSD, H1   

U.K. industrial production rose 0.3% m/m in March, in line with forecast, but a tad below consensus, with the narrower manufacturing figure missing expectations and rising just 0.1% m/m, after a -0.9% m/m contraction in the previous month. Overall production was down -0.2% y/y, the first annual drop since December, while the decline in manufacturing accelerated to -1.9% y/y from -1.6% y/y in February. This was the biggest annual fall since 2013. The earlier timing of Easter this year may have distorted numbers somewhat, which the much weaker than expected French and German data yesterday already suggested, but shutdowns in the steel industry due to global overcapacity also added to pressure. The ONS meanwhile said that the figures do not point to any revision of the GDP estimate for Q1, partly due to back-revisions to the broader measure of industrial output, which now show output up 0.1% y/y in February, compared to a -0.5% y/y drop reported initially.

GDPUSD unchanged on the data at 1.4418 whilst the EURGBP struggles with 0.7900.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Services PMI – Another weak number

2016-05-05_11-59-27

GBPUSD, Daily    

UK Services PMI growth the weakest in over three years: This is a full set of three big misses in the three PMI surveys for April. The headline services number fell to 52.3, the lowest level since February 2013, and well off both the median for 53.5 and the 53.7 reading in the previous month. The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dove to a contractionary 49.2 reading, the weakest level seen since February 2013, and the construction PMI fell to its weakest level since June 2013. The composite PMI worked out at 51.9, down from 53.6 in March. Markit estimates that the UK GDP fell to just 0.1% q/q growth in the three months to April, down from 0.4% growth in Q1. Markit notes that the early timing of Easter this may have affected the service sector, but also notes that “April also saw an increase in the number of companies reporting that uncertainty about the EU referendum caused customers to hold back on purchases,” which is exacerbating already shaky demand amid fiscal tightening and global uncertainties.

Technically, GBPUSD has come off its 2016 highs, with support at 1.4418 and 1.4283 (50 DMA) and resistance at the recent 2016 high at 1.4667 and 1.4700.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD Analysis for 04.28.2016

GBPUSD T1 hit

GBPUSD 60 min. I wrote earlier today that I was looking for sell signals at my sell area at 1.4598 – 1.4618 with a Target 1 between 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci levels at 1.4530 and 1.4547 as GBPUSD hit a resistance at 1.4619 after it moved outside a descending price channel and as the reaction lower confirmed the market participants’ willingness to sell near the resistance.

The pair rallied to my Sell Area, then turned and has now hit the Target 1 level. 

GBP 240 chart

GBPUSD 240 min. In the 4h chart the pair is still inside a rising channel. Now we have price (in 15 min chart) turning higher again after it found support from my Target 1. The next significant support level is at 1.4473 which coincides with the channel low and 30 period moving average. In addition, the lower Bollinger Bands are in the proximity of this level adding to it’s relevance. The resistance levels are at 1.4639 and 1.4670.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD reacting lower from resistance

GBP

GBPUSD 240 min

The pair hit a resistance at 1.4619 after it moved outside a descending price channel. The reaction lower confirmed the market participants’ willingness to sell near the resistance while Stochastic Oscillator (7,3,3) was edging closer to the overbought level. This could provide us with an intraday move of approximately 50 pips if market rallies a little first.

I am looking for sell signals at my sell area at 1.4598 – 1.4618 with a Target 1 between 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci levels at 1.4530 and 1.4547.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK GDP Slows in first Quarter

2016-04-27_12-05-57

 

GBPUSD, 1hr   

The UK economy grew less during the first quarter of 2016 but in line with expectations. First quarter GDP growth was 0.4% overall. Services output was the star (unsurprisingly) with an increase of 0.6%, however, output in Production fell by 0.4%, Construction output slipped by 0.9% and Agriculture dropped by 0.1%.  Additionally 2015 fourth quarter growth was revised higher to 0.6% from 0.5%.

Although manufacturing remains poor and Brexit remains ever present, for now the figures were received rather positively for sterling. Following an initial sell off earlier; GBPUSD rose to 1.4580 and GBPJPY to 162.20, EURGBP remains rather moribund around 0.7755.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Consumer Confidence – Also Disappoints

2016-04-26_17-03-01

GBPUSD, 1hr   

US Consumer confidence fell to 94.2 in April from 96.1 in March (was 96.2). The miss was more pronounced than expected (95.8). This also followed US Markit services flash PMI rose to 52.1 in April from a 51.3 final reading in March. But the employment index pulled back to 53.0 vs 54.0; the composite PMI rose to 51.7 vs 51.3; and the composite employment index sank to 52.5 vs 53.6, for the lowest reading since October. Overall not that impressive a start for the service sector in Q2, though the asset and FX markets remain focused on supply, oil and central bank meetings for now.

GBPUSD continued its rally from Friday trading to a 12 week high at 1.4635.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.