US Data – all relatively positive today


EURUSD, H4            

Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Services PMI and relatively positive and better than expected.

U.S. consumer confidence dipped 0.1 point to 97.3 in July after jumping 5.0 points to 97.4 in June (revised from 98.0). The index was 91.0 last July. The present situations component climbed to 118.3 from 116.6 (revised down from 118.3). The expectations index fell to 83.3 from 84.6 (revised from 84.5). The labor market differential rose to 0.7 from -0.5 (revised from 0.1). The 12-month inflation index slowed to 4.7% from 4.8% (revised from 4.7%). The headline data are better than forecast.

 U.S. new home sales rose 3.5% to 0.592 mln in June, well above expectations (and is the best since February 2008), following an unchanged 0.572 mln print in May (revised up from 0.551 mln). April’s prior 12.3% surge to 0.586 mln was revised down to a 6.5% increase to 0.572 mln. Sales were mixed regionally with gains in the West and Midwest. The months’ supply of homes fell to 4.9 from 5.1 (revised from 5.3). The median sales price jumped 6.2% to $306,700 following a 9.8% drop to $288,800 (revised from $290,400). On an annual basis, prices are up 6.1% y/y following a 0.5% y/y pace.

U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index climbed 20 points to 10 in July after dropping 10 points to -10 in June (revised from -7). Most of the components improved, with upward revisions to several of the June readings. The employment index rallied to 6 from 1 (revised from -1). The workweek bounced to 1 from -7 (revised from -4). Wages dipped to 14 from 15 (revised from 14). New orders surged to 15 from -17 (revised from -14). Prices paid slowed to 0.64% from 1.14% (revised from 1.25%), with prices received at 0.48% from 0.79% (revised from 0.88%). The 6-month index improved to 19 from 11 (revised from 9), with employment at 7 from 2 (revised from -1).

U.S. Markit services PMI fell 0.5 points to 50.9 in the flash July reading, after inching up to 51.4 in June from 51.3 in May. It was at 55.7 a year ago. The numbers indicate the service sector remains in expansion for a 5th straight month, but only marginally, after slipping to 49.7 in February. The employment component rose to 52.6 from 52.4. The composite index edged up 0.3 points to 51.5 versus 51.2 in June and 50.9 in May.

EURUSD continues to meander lower, currently trading at 1.0990 having been as high as 1.1029, buyers appeared around 1.0980 earlier but 1.1000 could not be maintained.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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