GBPUSD Update, Pound Remains a Sell into Strength Play

GBPUSD Update, Pound Remains a Sell into Strength Play

GBPUSD, Daily

The GBPUSD pair continued to grind lower at the start of the week after remarks from BoE MPC Martin Weale, highlighting that “the factors pushing down inflation have become a bit more prolonged”. Price has since recovered from the early sell-off and is currently trading higher for the day. The fundamental outlook, in my view, supports that the GBP will continue to weaken vs the USD for some time to come and that traders should be ready to resell the pair on bounces.

Technically, the GBPUSD remains within a bearish channel over the mid term. I would be on alert for entering new short sales during periods of strength with any price bounce off the current levels (1.4920) to stop near the 1.5110 area, provided that price fails to break below the 1.4860 zone. Otherwise, my short term GBPUSD view supports sell positions near the 1.4955-1.50 area for a 1.4813 target.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD for 12.21.2015

Economic week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

This is a shortened trade week since Friday is a Bank Holiday for the major Central banks with U.S. and European markets closed on Friday.

Europe: The European economic calendar will remain light as we head into the end of the year and with the lack of E.U. data we would expect for the EURUSD pair to trade within a range in the wake of the risk events from the U.S. Fed and the ECB are now out of the way. German markets will already be closing down for Christmas Eve on Thursday and all markets will be closed for Christmas Day Friday. The calendar is quiet, with only German and Eurozone consumer confidence numbers of note (Monday, Tuesday, respectively), which are expected to remain for the most part stable. The final reading of French Q3 GDP (Wednesday). French consumer spending also on (Wednesday) is expected to rebound from the marked dip in October and rise 0.6% m/m in November.

United States: The U.S. will still have several more economic data releases until the end of the year, starting with the Chicago Fed National Activity index (Monday), this will be followed by the third update on Q3 GDP (Tuesday) forecast to be revised down to 1.8% from 2.1% originally and 3.9% in Q2. FHFA home prices may tick up to 227.0 in October from 226.5, while existing home sales may run 0.7% higher to a 5.40 mln unit pace in November. The Richmond Fed index is set to rise to -1 in December vs -3 previously. The MBA mortgage application report is due (Wednesday) and could be impacted by the advent of the Fed decision midweek. Durable goods orders are expected to retreat 1.5% in November (median -0.7%) after a 3.0% gain in October, while personal income and spending may rise 0.3% in November. Final Michigan sentiment should be nudged up to 92.0 in December from 91.8 initially and new home sales are forecast to rise 2.0% in November to a 505k unit pace from 495k. Initial jobless claims may tick up 1k (Thursday) to a 272k level.

Canada: A holiday shortened week will be highlighted by October GDP (Wednesday) , Retail sales also (Wednesday) are expected to show an 0.8% m/m gain in October following the 0.5% drop in September while the ex-autos aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after a 0.5% decline. Average weekly earnings (Tuesday) are seen rising 0.3% m/m in October after the 1.0% surge in September. Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz will deliver a presentation on the global economy and Canadian monetary policy at the Canada’s Finance Ministers meeting in Ottawa on Sunday and Monday (Dec 20 and 21). The next top tier event from the bank is a speech from Governor Poloz on January 7th.

United Kingdom: The markets are anticipating that the UK’s version of rate liftoff will be around six months after the U.S., with a hike seen in the middle of 2016. This week the U.K. has on tab the; CBI distributive sales survey for December (Monday) where analyst expect a solid rebound to a +20 reading in headline realized sales (median +21), up from +7 in November. Growth in real household incomes, despite recent abatement in nominal growth, has been underpinning consumption. Analyst anticipate the December reading of the Gfk consumer confidence survey (Tuesday) to come in unchanged at +1 (median same). Monthly government borrowing data are also due (also Tuesday), as is the final release of Q3 GDP (Wednesday), which analyst expect to remain unchanged at 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y. Q3 current account data (also due Wednesday) is expected to reveal a deficit of GBP 21.5 bln, mostly reflecting the UK’s trade deficit and net negative investment returns.

Switzerland: The Swiss calendar is light, featuring trade data (Tuesday) the December KOF leading indicator (Wednesday), both of which should highlight that the Swiss economy continues to manage well in the face of Eurozone uncertainties and a strong franc.

Japan: October all-industry index (Monday), which is expected to rebound 0.5% m/m from the -0.2% outcome in September. Activity slows until the end of the week with the minutes to the November 18, 19th BoJ meeting (Thursday). Friday’s slate is heavy. November national CPI is seen steady at 0.3% y/y on an overall basis, and accelerating to 0.1% y/y clip from the prior -0.1% on a core basis. December headline Tokyo CPI is expected to slow to unchanged y/y from 0.2% previously, while core should be steady at unchanged y/y. November unemployment is forecast steady at 3.1%, with the job offers/seekers ratio holding at 1.24. November personal income likely dipped to 2.0% y/y from 2.6%, while PCE is seen contracting further to -2.5% y/y from -2.4% in October. November services PPI should ease to 0.1% y/y from 0.5%.

• Australia: The AUD calendar is empty this week, and remains without of top tier data until the first week of January. Markets will be closed in Australia on Friday for the Christmas holiday, with many remaining shut through Monday. The RBA takes its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the New Year.

• New Zealand: The NZD calendar has November trade (Wednesday), expected to reveal an improvement in the trade deficit to -NZ$800 mln from the -NZ$963 mln deficit in October. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week following the well-anticipated 25 basis point cut earlier this month that left the official cash rate at 2.50%. The bank’s next meeting is on January 28th, and we project no change in the current policy setting.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Macro Events & News for 12.18.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

The big news in overnight trade revolves around the Bank of Japan. In a sign of some serious desperation, the BoJ has announced that it will start buying more Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) and extend the duration of the bonds it buys in its QQE program. The central bank also noted that it will start accepting foreign currency bonds and housing mortgage loans as collateral. The announcement sparked volatility in Japanese markets; before the BoJ announcement the Nikkei 225 was trading lower, however rallied higher on the news to end strongly up 2.7%. At the same time, the USDJPY spiked to around 100 pips to a 123.55 peak before tumbling to a 121.70 low.

European data calendar is pretty empty today; on tap we have the Eurozone current account. The EURUSD fell close to the two week lows of 1.0802, falling from session highs of 1.0913.

The excitement of the Fed rate hike has been absorbed, and the USD is now trading modestly lower against most other currencies, however, remains stronger for the week.

U.S. equities closed the session near lows after the earlier drop with the price of crude oil.

Later today watch for some price action around the CAD upon the release of the Canadian Core CPI.

Main Macro Events Today

JPY Monetary Policy Statement: The Bank of Japan kept its Monetary Base on hold; however a new program was announced which will see the BoJ purchasing additional ETF’s.

CAD Canada Wholesale: Analyst expect wholesale shipments, due today, to rise 0.5% in October (median after the 0.1% dip in September. This report is typically overlooked, but an as expected bounce would be supportive of a rebound in October GDP. Analyst expect GDP to rise 0.2% in October after the 0.5% plunge in September.

• Canada CPI: CPI, due today, is expected to expand at a 1.4% y/y pace in November (median +1.5%), accelerating from the 1.0% rates in September and August. CPI is seen flat on a month comparable basis in November (median +0.1%) after rising 0.1% in October. Gas prices fell 1.5% in November compared to October, which is expected to weigh on month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen falling 0.1% m/m in November after the 0.2% and 0.3% gains seen in August, September and October. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in November (median +2.3%) following the 2.1% growth clips in August, September and October. The expected core CPI figure would, of course, leave the measure above the BoC’s 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions. Hence, the November report will not threaten the Bank’s dovishly constructive tone or the view that ongoing accommodative policy is required to bring the economy back to full capacity growth.

USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD Update, Aussie Remains Vulnerable

AUDUSD Update, Aussie Remains Vulnerable

AUDUSD, Daily

AUDUSD remains under pressure as the AUD remains vulnerable to the global commodities prices and the high demand for the U.S. Dollar, in the wake of the recent U.S. interest rate hike. Technically, I have been calling for the AUDUSD to drop in my recent reports. Since price has made a clean break of the 0.7080 key support; this has opened up the prospects for a long term downtrend to take shape for a medium term price target near the 0.7070’s

Dec 17 AUDUSD SRL

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 12.17.2015

Free Forex Signals for 12.17.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

The USD is trading stronger across the board after the U.S. Fed’s 25 basis point rate hike, Janet Yellen said the Fed’s rate hike is a sign that the economy is on the path of sustainable improvement.

Global stock markets are trading higher, the S&P 500 closed 1.5% , while in Asia Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up with a gain of 1.6%, at the time of writing EU markets are all trading higher.

Commodity prices are mostly weaker after the U.S. Fed opened the door for future rate hikes. WTI Crude Oil is down around 1.15%, while Gold is trading nearly 1% lower on the day at the time of writing.

The Norwegian central bank left the key deposit rate steady at 0.75%, but said rate may be reduced in the first half of next year.

Draghi is keeping the door open for additional easing, the ECB is ready to use all tools if necessary, the editorial of the European central bank’s Economic Bulletin brought few surprises and was once again a close repeat of Draghi’s central message from the last press conference. It said the “governing council will closely monitor the evolution in the outlook for price stability and, if warranted is willing and able to act by using all the instruments available within its mandate in order to maintain an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation”.

The Chinese Yuan weakens for 10 day’s in a row, this has helped support local stocks , as the weaker currency will underpin exports. The People’s Bank of China is likely to continue its effort to stabilize the Yuan against a basket of currencies and will look for a gradual depreciation against the USD, after the Fed’s move. Exports remain weak and fell for a fifth months in November as global demand remains tepid. As China remains on course for ongoing monetary accommodation, while the Fed has started the tightening cycle, the differences in policy stances will underpin further Yuan weakness.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR German Info Business Climate: The German Ifo business climate disappointed, with the headline reading unexpectedly falling to 108.7 against expectations for a steady reading of 109.0. The breakdown showed that the dip was due to a decline in the current conditions indicator, which fell to 112.8 from 113.4. The more forward looking expectations index remained steady at 104.7, after rising in the previous three months. The diffusion index, which gives the balance of positive and negative answers, fell back to 10.4 from 10.9 as confidence in the construction industry declined in tandem with whole sale and retail confidence. Still optimists continue to outnumber pessimists in all sectors and the stable expectations reading means the number is not as negative as the headline reading suggests, especially as numbers remain at high levels.

GBP U.K. November retail sales: reported much stronger than expected, with sales up 1.7% m/m, against analyst median forecast for a rise of 0.6% m/m. The annual rate jumped to 5.0% y/y and October data were revised higher to 4.2% y/y from 3.8% y/y reported initially. More signs that the U.K. recovery remains on track, which will keep the implicit tightening bias at the BoE in place, although the bank clearly is in no rush to follow the Fed, as wage growth and inflation remains low.

USD U.S. Current Account: Current account data for Q3 is out Today and should show a headline decrease to -$122 bln (median -$120 bln) from $109.7 bln in Q2 and -$118.3 bln in Q1. As a percentage of GDP this would represent a -2.7% figure which compares to -2.4% in Q3 and -2.7% in Q1. The Q3 trade deficit was -$9.6 bln from a $6.6 bln surplus in Q2.

USD U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index: December Philly Fed is out today and should have the headline rising to 3.0 (median 1.5) from 1.9 in November. The already released December Empire State Index posted an increase to -4.6 from -10.7. More broadly, analyst expect producer sentiment to trend sideways in December with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures remaining steady at 50 for a fourth month since first reaching that figure in September.

USD U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of December 12 are out Thursday and should reveal a decline to 280k (median 273k) from 282k in the week of December 5 and 269k in the week before that. Claims are continuing to strike firm levels and analyst expect December data to extend the 270k average set by the headline in November. Accompanying this, analyst expect to see a 200k non-farm payroll headline in December that just slightly undershoots the 211k headline from November.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

2016 – FINALLY, THE RETURN TO NORMALIZATION, I’LL BUY THE USD ON DIPS!

2016 – Finally, The Return to Normalization, I’ll Buy the USD on Dips!

Finally, after almost 10 years, the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle higher interest rates after nearly a decade of financial crisis emergency life support by the Fed.

Key Points:

  • The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday;
  • This was followed by a statement that said more rate hikes are on the way;
  • Rate increases will be at a “gradual pace”;
  • The Fed will remain “data Dependent”.

The above key points give me enough support to buy US dollars on weakness, provided the data stream does not fall off a Cliff.

What do USD traders do from here?

The trading strategy, as we move forward the post rate hike, in my opinion, is to keep an eye on the U.S. economic data stream (Economic Calendar) and as long as the data is relatively positive, buy the USD on weakness.

Trade safe friends.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

How Tonight’s U.S. Fed Rate Decision Will Affect You

How Tonight’s U.S. Fed Rate Decision Will Affect You

The effects of today’s U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision will be felt far and wide across the global financial markets. It is expected that for the first time in 9 years, the U.S. Fed will open the door for gradual interest rate increases. If we see the start of a Fed rate liftoff cycle today, the immediate focus will be on when the next rate hike will come. We expect that the Fed will try to tone down the event with some points of cautiousness regarding the health of the U.S. economy. However traders see it, we all have to adjust to a world of higher U.S. borrowing cost.

Traders will now have to adjust expectations of a stronger U.S. dollar world. Once the door is kicked open and the Fed begins the next interest rate cycle, the effects will reach all market participants, from traders to small homeowners. The fact that this event will affect all those who borrow in USD means that commodity prices such as Oil will also continue to be heavily affecting those who are not market traders. Stock markets will also be affected; since in the sort term, the rate hike will be viewed as a boost of confidence which may propel an already robust stock market even higher.

As a broker, we are expecting that our client trading volumes will increase, as our clients will seek out new market opportunities as a result of the changing market conditions created by this historic moment given that the U.S. starts to move past the era of cheap money and into a new ear of growth and prosperity.

I wish all traders good luck and successful trading as we move forward and into the New Year.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Analysis for 12.16.2015

Free Forex Signals for 12.16.2015

Today’s Currency Movers

Over the last five trading days and ahead of the build-up towards the U.S. Interest Rate decision, money is seen flowing into the USD. The U.S. buck has held firmer against the JPY, AUD, GBP, CAD, EUR, NZD and the CHF amid the backdrop of strong global stock markets and the fact that the U.S. Fed is widely expected to start the rate lift-off today.

The GBP suffers losses across the board as the latest data from the United Kingdom indicates that the BoE will not make a move to hike the GBP cost of borrowing until possibly 2017. Also, the fact that the BoE worries about a possible rate rise by the Fed today, will put upward pressure on GBP. For the moment, the market will be pricing in an evidentially BoE rate hike after the Fed opens the door first.

The AUD has underperformed since Australia remains vulnerable to the weakness in the global commodities markets.

Dec 16 GBPUSD

 

GBPUSD, Daily (Updated)

The GBP has been trading lower in the initial wake of last week’s December BoE meeting which showed the Monetary Policy Committee was focusing on the recent decline in nominal pay growth, which was taken by markets as a dovish shift in the BoE’s thinking, in turn reducing expectations for BoE rate rift-off anytime soon.

Technically, I remain bearish on GBP against the USD in the current macro environment with my technical short term price targets for the GBPUSD at 1.4955 (S1) with a possible test of the April 20th lows near 1.4890 (S2).

Dec 16 gbpusd srl

Dec 16. AUDUSD

 

AUDUSD Daily, (Updated)

The minutes to the RBA’s early-December policy review reaffirmed the view that the central bank is increasingly comfortable with the economic prognosis. Notably the RBA dropped “members judged that monetary policy needed to be accommodative,” although it maintained that the inflation outlook “may afford some scope for a further easing of monetary policy” if needed.

Technically, the AUDUSD is at risk of further medium-term losses, Monday’s drop has so far failed to hold, a price bounce from .716 could leave a lower top near the .7230′s ahead of a breakdown towards .7070 area.

Dec 16 AUDUSD srl

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 12.16.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Today’s main event is the long awaited U.S. Interest Rate Decision. My view is that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates today. I believe that the Fed understands that if they fail to hike today, the U.S. Fed’s credibility will most certainly be challenged. Let’s not forget that the U.S. Fed has been holding the markets hostage for many months, thereby creating a large amount of uncertainty in the markets with constant talk about the pending interest rate adjustment higher, only to disappoint the markets with no action during the previous meetings. Today’s “potential” rate hike will open the door, in my opinion, for further rate hikes over the coming year. Most professional traders are very aware of this fact and have already been adjusting positions accordingly.

In overnight stock market trading and ahead of today’s important U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, global stock markets surged higher, with solid gains in Asian, Europe and Wall Street yesterday. The “pending” increase in U.S. Dollar borrowing cost is viewed by the stock markets as a net positive that the economy is healthy and that growth will continue to follow despite the higher cost of borrowing.

So far today, the USD has consolidated yesterday’s gains, after core CPI data out of the U.S. provided a final conformation of market expectations for the Fed to deliver a long-awaited rate hike later today.

The general market mode for today, I would see it as swinging between “risk-on” and “risk-off” as traders jockey for positions, with high volatility especially during the U.S. FOMC Press Conference scheduled for later tonight at 7:30PM GMT. The heavy price action will be around the FOMC Economic Projections, the FOMC Statement followed by the FOMC Press Conference. Traders will have a long night of trading with plenty of action expected. I wish you all good luck on this historic trading day!

Main Macro Events Today

EUR CPI data: the final reading of CPI data for November, which should confirm the headline rate at 0.1% y/y (med same) and core inflation at 0.9% y/y. The decline in oil prices remains the main factor weighing on CPI, although core inflation also eased slightly last month, as the drop in basic goods prices is feeding through the production chain. Still, the ECB already reacted to this by easing policy further and ECB’s Coeure said deflation risks are off the table now with the latest set of measures, so the numbers won’t change the policy outlook.

USD U.S. Industrial Production: November industrial production is out on today and should reveal a 0.2% (median -0.2%) decline which would mark the third strait month of 0.2% drops. Despite the firm November employment report there is some downside risk to industrial production as factory employment declined by 1k and mining employment was down by 11k for the month. We expect capacity utilization at 77.3% (median 77.4%) from 77.5% in October.

USD U.S. Housing Starts: November housing starts are out today and analyst expect a 1,130k (median 1,133k) headline following a 1,060k headline in October which marked an 11.0% decline from September. Analyst expect permits at 1,150k from 1,161k and completions should rise to 1,000k from 965k in October. The warmer weather through November should lend some upside risk to the release despite the slow down in the already released November NAHB which declined to 62 from 65 in October.

USD Interest Rate Decision: FOMC made two key changes in the policy statement that put a Fed hike on the table for today, even as it left rates unchanged in October. Fed removed the comment from the September statement that “recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat” and replaced it with “monitoring” developments. Also said “in determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting” Those two changes reversed the dovishness from the September meeting and ostensibly reduced the concerns over the slowdown in China that Chair Yellen mentioned in her presser Statement somewhat at odds with slowing in recent data, however, but acknowledged job gains had slowed while unemployment rate held steady Inflation continues to run the below the Committee’s long run target.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 12.15.2015

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

The European calendar today will focus on German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation data for November; USD traders will keep on eye on the CPI numbers, while the CAD could see some price action as the BoC Governor Poloz will make a speech later in the evening.

The USD is under some selling pressure ahead of today’s CPI numbers, and the EUR continues its charge higher, however, market volatility should prevail in the up-coming trading days as we move closer to the end of year FOMC highlight meeting on Wednesday. This meeting will set the trading stage for the future of the USD interest rate expectations.

U.S. stock markets finished up +103 points at the start of the week while stock markets in Asia stock ended mostly down; Japan’s Nikkei dropped by more than 1.6%. Oil prices are pulling back slightly after yesterday’s price rally, U.S. Oil is currently trading above the USD 36 per barrel mark in risk on trading.

The theme for the remainder of the week is an increase in market volatility ahead of the Fed rate decision tomorrow, however, its expected for markets to absorb the expected rate hike with ease since this event has had plenty of time to price in. Traders should never the less remain on alert as market’s surprises can never be ruled out.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR German ZEW: ZEW Investor confidence is seen rising slightly to 11.2 (med 17.3) from 10.4 in the previous month, although analyst view the risk is to the downside as the ongoing sell off in commodities has been weighing on stock markets and investor confidence. The prospect of a Fed rate hike meanwhile has been pretty much absorbed by the markets.

U.K. GBP CPI: We expect inflation to tick higher, forecasting the headline CPI rate to lift to 0.1% y/y (median same) from-0.1%, and the core CPI rate to rise to 1.2% (median same) from 1.1%. As the BoE has been foretelling, inflation will start to pick up as the impact of oil-driven price declines from a year ago start to drop out of y/y comparisons. The BoE is forecasting CPI to pick up through 2016, though only moderately, expecting that it will remain below 1.0% into the second half of the year.

USD Consumer Price Index: November CPI is out today and should reveal a 0.1% (median unchanged) headline with a 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. This follows October figures of 0.2% for both the headline and the core. Energy prices have kept inflation measures depressed recently and analyst expect that trend to continue in this release with an anticipated 2% gasoline price decline.

USD Empire State Manufacturing Index: The December Empire State Index is out today to kick off the month’s producer sentiment data. Analyst expect an increase to -8.0 (median -6.0) from -10.7 last month. Sentiment measures have been trending sidewards over the course of the fall with the ISM-adjusted average of all reports holding at 50 since September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.