Draghi’s speech and EURCAD


EURCAD, 240 min

Draghi’s speech is scheduled for today and starts at 10 am GMT while the ECB interest rate decision is due tomorrow. Draghi is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged at tomorrow’s council meeting. Indeed, with officials stressing that helicopter money may be an interesting academic idea but is not under serious consideration and the ECB focused on implementing the measures already announced the central bank is seen on hold for an extended period. With growth slowing down in core countries and the Brexit referendum adding to uncertainties, hopes of further action down the line remain, even if helicopter money may be too much of a leap. For now though the ECB remains on hold and at the moment September seems the earliest for a serious policy review.

Event’s such as speeches from central bankers have a potential to move the currency markets as much as the discussions between heads of oil producing states can move the crude oil and related currencies. With Draghi’s speech coming up and oil being volatile I am focusing on EURCAD, an FX pair that could be impacted by both. The pair is trading at the lower Bollinger Bands in weekly, daily and 4h charts has driven Stochastics to the oversold territory in Weekly and 4h timeframes. This together with Draghi’s speech coming up later on today creates a chance for this market to rally higher. The nearest 4h resistance level at 1.4482 coincides with 23.6% Fib-level and EURCAD breaks above it could rally up to my sell area at 1.4609 – 1.4680, an area that coincides with the 4h Bollinger bands and the area between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

I’m looking for sell signals in EURCAD inside my sell area between 1.4623 – 1.4680 with Target 1 at 1.4350 – 1.4400 and Target 2 at 1.4200 – 1.4242. Please remember to manage your risks and only trade these trade ideas if your analysis agrees with them. If you don’t know how to manage your trading risks professionally you are welcome join to my free webinars to learn more.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

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