Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The November services data, along with trade and sentiment data will headline a thin economic slate. The nonmanufacturing ISM (Monday) is projected to rise to 55.5 after falling 2.3 points to 54.8 in October. The Markit services PMI is also slated (Monday). The October international trade report (Tuesday) is seen posting a wider $42.4 bln deficit. The December preliminary consumer sentiment release (Friday) should show an increase to 94.5 after popping up to 93.8 in November, further reflecting Trump enthusiasm. Productivity growth (Tuesday) is forecast to be unchanged at a 3.1% pace, while unit labor costs hold at 0.3%. The October JOLTS data(Wednesday) would typically be important, as it’s a Yellen favorite, but with the Fed a done deal next week, it will be overlooked. The quarterly QSS release (Thursday) will be of some importance for the GDP outlook as it’s an update on the service sector. Other data this week includes the Fed’s November Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) (Monday), October factory orders (Tuesday), October consumer credit (Wednesday), initial jobless claims (Thursday), and October wholesale trade. Fedspeak will be compressed to Monday this week heading into the Fed’s blackout window for the December 14 FOMC decision. On Saturday, NY Fed dove Dudley confined his remarks to regulation. He will be back up again on Monday discussing the macroeconomic outlook. Chicago Fed dove Evans will speak on the current economic outlook and policy. St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard will discuss the economy and policy as well.

Canada: the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the focus. No change in the current 0.50% rate setting is expected but a tempering of the easing bias is possible. Projections are also for no change in rates through next year. Data is headlined by the October trade report (Tuesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.0 bln from -C$4.1 bln. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is projected to be nearly steady at 60.0 in November from 59.7 in October. Housing starts (Thursday) are seen slipping to 190.0k in November from 192.9k in October. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to decline 1.0% in October after tumbling 7.0% in September. Capacity utilization (Thursday) is projected to rebound to 81.5% in Q3 as the economy recovered, following the plunge to 80.0% in Q2 that was driven by the Alberta-wildfire-related pull-back in GDP. Capacity utilization was 81.4% in Q1. The October new housing price index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in October after the matching 0.2% increase in September

Europe: The ECB is the focus this week. The Bank not only has to deal with the immediate fallout from the Italian referendum, but most importantly, it will be deciding on the future of the QE program, which currently runs out in March. News sources suggested that many on the Committee favor another 6-month extension at current levels. The calendar will play a secondary role, although German manufacturing order numbers (Tuesday) will be interesting and are likely to be watched closely by central bankers.  Similarly, industrial production for October (Wednesday) is expected to rebound 0.9% m/m after falling -1.8% m/m in September. Data broadly in line with expectations would confirm what confidence indicators already suggested, that growth is likely to pick up again in the last quarter of the year. The same holds for Eurozone October retail sales (Monday), which are seen at 0.8% m/m.

The November Services PMI (Monday) is likely to be confirmed at 55.0. And, against these up-to-date numbers, the third release of Eurozone Q3 GDP (Tuesday) will be rather backward looking. The data calendar also has German trade numbers (Friday) and French production data Friday).

UK: Sterling closed out last week on strong footing with an average 0.6% advance versus the G3 currencies on the day and an average gain of 1.6% on the week. The calendar includes an expected ruling by the Supreme Court onThursday on the government’s challenge to the issue of whether it has to put the decision to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before parliament. Data include the November services PMI (Monday), which is expected to ebb to a headline reading of 54.2) after October’s 54.5. Like the manufacturing and construction PMIs have already shown, the November PMI should reveal a spike in cost pressures as the consequence of sterling’s weakness post-Brexit vote start to bite. Production data for October is also up (Wednesday), where we see scope for a rebound in the industrial output figure, to +0.2% m/m after September’s 0.4% m/m contraction. Trade data and various house price indicators are also out, none of which is expected to move markets.

China: The November trade surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to $45.0 bln from $49.1 bln in October.Friday brings November CPI and PPI, where the former is seen warming to 2.3% y/y from 2.1%, and the latter expected at 2.5% y/y from 1.2%.

Japan: The October current account surplus (Thursday) is seen narrowing to JPY 1,600.0 bln from 1,821.0 bln in September. November bank loan data are also due Thursday. The Q4 MoF business outlook survey (Friday) is expected to fall to 2.0 from 2.9 in November.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight. No change to the current 1.50% rate setting is the expected outcome. The bank cut rates in May and August to counter a firming AUD. The slate of economic data is highlighted by Q3 GDP (Wednesday), projected to expand 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q2. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen at -A$14.5 bln after the -A$15.5 bln shortfall in Q2. The trade deficit (Thursday) is anticipated at -A$1.0 bln in October from -A$1.2 bln in September. Housing finance (Friday) is seen falling 1.0% in October after the 1.6% run-up in September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

FBI’s Comey dropped a bombshell on the markets late Friday as he announced the agency would be reviving the Clinton email probe after learning, via a separate investigation, of the existence of apparently “pertinent” messages on a PC owned by Anthony Weiner (estranged husband of Clinton advisor Huma Abedin). In his letter, Comey reportedly told key members of Congress that his agency should take “appropriate investigative steps.” Wall Street dropped on the news, though a bounce in Biotech and Pharma shares (on the hot seat under Clinton) helped the Dow recover toward unchanged levels. The Mexican peso, the de facto election barometer, was the main casualty of the news, plunging 1.4% before closing 0.9% lower. Concurrently, bond yields closed modestly lower on short covering and risk aversion. This heightened uncertainty will make for an extraordinary run up to the November 8 election.

United States: The FOMC (Tuesday, Wednesday) will be a point of interest for the markets this week, but not quite the center of attention it usually is. The pick-up in Advance Q3 GDP to 2.9% helped clear the way for a hike in December, and implied futures were suggesting about a 75-80% probability — the November 1, 2 FOMC was never really in the running due to the election. Other data this week will have more relevance for how the markets set up for the December policy decision. Remember, the onus is on the data to keep the Fed sidelined at year end. Personal income (Monday) and PCE. Chicago PMI and  Dallas Fed index (Tuesday) and construction spending. MBA mortgage applications are on tap (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey set to increase 160k in October. Q3 productivity (Thursday) along with. Initial jobless claims, ISM services and factory goods orders.  The employment report will highlight on Friday, with October nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by 174k vs 156k in September, with a 160k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick back down to 4.9% from 5.0% in September. The workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a second month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.

The Q3 earnings announcements continue this week. So far, most of the S&P companies which have announced have beaten estimates.  This week includes Electronic Arts, Pfizer, Alibaba, Allergan, Facebook, Fitbit, Time Warner, Kraft Heinz, Adidas, Liberty Global, Starbucks and BMW.

Canada: A heavy slate of economic data this week: The industrial product price index (Monday), GDP (Tuesday), Employment (Friday) is projected to fall 15.0k in October, but after the stunning 67.2k surge in September. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0%. The trade deficit also (Friday) is expected to narrow to -C$1.8 bln in September from -C$1.9 bln in August, as Canada’s trade position continues to gradually improve. The October RBC manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and October Ivey PMI (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Preliminary Eurozone Q3 GDP numbers and October inflation data will be in focus this week, which together with the final readings for October PMI surveys, will add to the data mix that could prove decisive for the ECB December decision on future QE purchases. Preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) meanwhile is seen accelerating to 0.5% y/y.The data calendar also has unemployment numbers from Germany for October, (Wednesday). Eurozone September unemployment (Thursday) is seen steady at 10.2%. German retail sales and French production data are also on the slate.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time since September (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will at the same time release the latest Quarterly Inflation Report with updated growth and inflation projections. While last week brought some good news, including the solid Q3 GDP report and news that Nissan will remain committed to its manufacturing operations in Brexit-bound Britain, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. S&P affirmed its AA credit rating for the UK late on Friday, although the agency maintained its negative outlook and warned that Brexit “presents a significant risk to the UK’s track record of strong economic performance, and to its large financial sector in particular.” The UK data calendar is also busy this week. Monthly BoE lending data (Monday) should see lending stabilize. The October PMI surveys highlight. The manufacturing PMI release (Tuesday), the construction PMI (Wednesday) and the services PMI (Thursday). Outcomes in-line with expectations would affirm that the economy is continuing to expand in early Q4.

China: The only reports are the services and manufacturing PMI measures (both Tuesday).

Japan: The BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) will be anxiously awaited amid policy uncertainties. While Governor Kuroda and Company are not expected to reveal any changes to the QE program, the markets will be watching for any shift to the Bank’s timeline for hitting its inflation goal of 2%. Data wise September preliminary industrial production, Retail sales , housing starts, construction orders and auto sales are all published  (Monday). The Nikkei/Markit October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 48.0 from 48.2 previously. October consumer confidence (Wednesday) is forecast at 42.5 from 43.0 previously, while October services PMI is due Friday. The markets are closed for a holiday Thursday.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% setting for the policy rate. Building approvals (Wednesday), the trade deficit (Thursday), Retail sales (Friday) and finally the October Melbourne Institute inflation index (Monday) is also scheduled for release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Several major events are on the horizon, including monetary policy decisions from the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE, not to mention the U.S. presidential election, now less than three weeks away. Uncertainties over monetary policy, the political landscape, as well as the economic and inflation outlooks have largely restrained global markets in recent weeks. However, stocks and bonds have been buoyed of late by expectations that central banks will maintain their uber-stimulative policies, signs that 2H growth is accelerating, albeit modestly, and that inflationary pressures might be surfacing.

Data takes a backseat this week with a number of Tier one reports, but none that are crucial for near term direction or for the FOMC decision next week. The Advance GDP report for Q3 headlines (Friday). Employment costs for Q3 are also due (Friday) Both of these reports are old news, however, and should have little impact. Also October ISM (Monday) and services (Wednesday) numbers and  October consumer confidence (Tuesday). The final October consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan survey (Friday), New home sales for September (Wednesday) also August home price reports (Tuesday) from Case-Shiller and the FHFA, along with the September pending home sales index. Durable orders for September (Thursday), finally of note is the advance trade report for September due (Wednesday). Fedspeak: starts to lighten up ahead of the November 1, 2 FOMC. This week there is the usual mix of hawks and doves; Monday sees – Dudley (dove), Bullard (turning hawkish) , Evans (Dove) and Powell (centrist). Lockhart (hawkish) speaks Tuesday.     

The Q3 earnings announcements peak this week with about 1/3 of the Dow and 1/3 of the S&P reporting, including the two biggest stars Apple (Tuesday) and Alphabet (Thursday). Through the earnings season so far, 7 of the 11 S&P sectors have recorded profit growth, while earnings have beaten expectations by nearly 7%.

Canada: The final piece of the August GDP is released Monday along with the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appearing at the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.

Europe: With the ECB’s decision on the future of the QE program postponed until December, the focus returns to data releases and this will be a busy week. The most important numbers currently are business confidence indicators, manufacturing PMI (Monday). The German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday) French Business Confidence (Tuesday) are all expected to rise slightly which should leave the European Commission’s overall ESI Economic Confidence (Friday) little changed at 105. All those are pretty much in line with the ECB’s central scenario of a gradual recovery with ongoing risks to the downside. GDP numbers are also due this week, along wityh HCIP numbers.

UK: The focus remains on the Brexit process, not least of which is the constitutional crisis that the referendum has instigated. The UK’s calendar this week features the CBI surveys on industrial trends (Monday) and distributive trades (Thursday), along with the first estimate of Q3 GDP (Wednesday). Given Brexit uncertainties, sterling markets will likely be more sensitive to any unexpected weakness in data rather than any unexpected strength.

China: No data releases this week.

Japan: September services PPI (Wednesday), CPI , September Unemployment , Personal Income and PCE all due this week. Already released are Trade balance and PMI manufacturing which ticked up to 51.7 from 50.4 last time.

Australia: The calendar will provide a comprehensive picture of the Q3 inflation backdrop, with CPI (Wednesday), PPI (Friday) and trade prices (Thursday) due this week.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with the focus on the FOMC and BoJ. And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. With some policymakers starting to doubt the effectiveness of the low and negative rate structures, there’s increased uncertainty over just what will be announced, with the BoJ having perhaps the biggest opportunity to surprise with either its decisions on rates or QE purchases.

United States:  The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) dominates the landscape. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment. Indeed, Fed funds futures are suggesting a very low probability of less than 15%. A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. The September NAHB homebuilder survey leads off (Monday) and is expected to hold steady at 60. August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected falling to a 1.193 mln pace, after two consecutive monthly gains. Existing home sales (Thursday) should bounce 1.7% to a 5.480 mln. Weekly jobless claims, the August leaders index, the July FHFA home price index, and the KC Fed manufacturing survey are also due Thursday, with the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing report on Friday.

Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however,  it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday.

Canada: CPI and retails sales highlight the week’s slate of economic data, which also includes wholesale trade. Total CPI (Friday) is seen expanding at a 1.4% and The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is projected to moderate to 2.0%. Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise 0.3% with the the ex-autos retail aggregate is expected to gain 0.6%. Wholesale shipments (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.2% in July. Bank of Canada governor Poloz speaks Tuesday in Quebec City, with a press conference to follow.

Europe: This week’s data calendar is the timely set of confidence indicators in the form of preliminary September PMI readings (Friday). Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5 and an uptick in the services reading to 52.9, and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8. Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.

UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September (Thursday), where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Wednesday), as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday. The pound finished the day with a 1.8% loss to the dollar and with an average decline of 1.4% against the G3 currencies.

China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week.

Japan: is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday, and again on Thursday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, bookending the two-day BoJ meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday). The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The August trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 250.0 bln from the revised 513.6 bln in July. The July all-industry index (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% m/m versus the June 1.0% increase.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting (Tuesday), when policymakers held rates steady at 1.50% and shifted to a more balanced policy bias (from a tilt toward further easing). There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due (Tuesday).

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States:  This week’s U.S. calendar includes several interesting releases that could have some bearing on the Fed’s decision on September 21. The Treasury budget deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to ease to -$98.0 bln in August from -$112.8 bln in July,. The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due (Wednesday), along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices -0.1% in August, while there may be an EIA inventory correction from huge storm-related draws last week that bolstered crude oil above $47 bbl before the boom went bust Friday. On tap next is August retail sales (Thursday), forecast to rise 0.2%  or 0.3% ex-auto, with a downward bias given weak auto sales and mixed employment. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.0 in September  vs 2.0, whereas the Empire State may rise to -1.0 in September vs -4.2. Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to 270k), with August industrial production to shrink 0.5% vs 0.7% and capacity use dipping to 75.5% from 75.9%. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0.1% in July  vs 0.2%. August CPI is seen rising 0.1% headline (Friday) and 0.2% core, while September Michigan sentiment (preliminary) rises to 90.5 from 89.8 in August.

Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in shipment values during July following the 0.8% gain in June. The August existing home sales report (Thursday) and the August Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) also feature. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins (Wednesday) will present a lecture at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

Europe: After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release (Tuesday) closely. We are looking for an improvement to 3.0 from 0.5 in the previous month, which would mean the number of those optimistic about the outlook continued to rise. The rest of the week’s data calendar focuses mostly on final inflation readings for August, with the German HICP (Tuesday) expected to be confirmed at 0.3%, the Spanish (Tuesday) at -0.3%, the French (Wednesday) at 0.4% y/y and the Italian (Wednesday) at -0.3% y/y, which should leave the overall Eurozone number on Thursday unrevised from the preliminary reading at 0.2% y/y. Even core inflation at 0.8% y/y remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. ECB President Draghi speaks at an award ceremony on Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement.

UK: The BoE meets on policy (announcing Thursday) for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s policy bazooka.  Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers (Tuesday), employment figures covering July and August (Wednesday), and official August retail sales (Thursday). We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0.7% y/y from 0.6% in July, and the core CPI reading to 1.4% form 1.3%, with the effects of post-Brexit vote weakness in sterling starting to impact. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, as is the more timely claimant count rate, at 2.2%.  Retail sales are seen dipping 0.2% m/m in August, correcting after the strong a July, when sales rose 1.4% m/m.

China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively due Monday, followed by August industrial production (Tuesday), which is expected to inch up to 6.1% y/y from 6.0% previously. August retail sales (Tuesday) are penciled in at 10.1% y/y from 10.2%. August fixed investment (Tuesday) is seen slowing to a 7.8% y/y clip from 8.1%.

Japan: The Q3 MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected to reveal deterioration to -13.0 from -11.1 in Q2. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.0% y/y.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. Assistant Governor, Economics, Kent delivers a speech at the Bloomberg Breakfast Address (Tuesday). Head of Payments Policy Department, Tony Richards, speaks at the 26th Annual Credit Law Conference (Wednesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle takes the podium in London at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference (Wednesday). August employment (Thursday) is expected to improve 20.0k after the 26.2k rise in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7% in August, identical to the 5.7% seen in July.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

August U.S. nonfarm payroll report disappointed on multiple levels after the 151k headline increase came in below last week’s 180k median, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% versus expectations for a dip to 4.8%. Moreover, the workweek and earnings underperformed too, though the boost in the labor force was actually encouraging. Nevertheless, there was little net shake up in Fed policy expectations versus last week and December remains the odds-on favorite over September for the next move this year.

United States:  The U.S. economic calendar will be brief this week following the long Labor Day weekend, resuming (Tuesday) with ISM Non-Manufacturing, expected to hold steady at 55.5 in August. The MBA mortgage market survey and JOLTS are up next (Wednesday), though neither will be of much consequence to the September FOMC. Initial jobless claims are forecast to ease another 3k to 260k for the September 3 week (Thursday), while consumer credit is set to rise $15.0 bln iln July vs $12.3 bln in June. Wholesale trade data rounds out the meager schedule (Friday) with sales likely to rise 0.2% and inventories seen unchanged for July. Fedspeak resumes with SF Fed dove Williams (Tuesday) set to discuss the economic outlook before the Hayek Group. KC Fed hawk George and Richmond Fed hawk Lacker will testify before the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday) from 10 ET. Boston Fed dove Rosengren will take part in a Chamber Breakfast and Economic Forecast session (Friday). Dallas Fed moderate Kaplan will also participate in a Q&A session.

Canada: The economic data calendar is busy, Wednesday to Friday, following Labor Day today . The employment report (Friday) takes top billing, with jobs expected to improve 20.0k in August after the 31.2k drop in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 7.0%, up from the 6.9% reading in July. The August Ivey PMI (Wednesday) is expected to improve to 58.0 from 57.0 in July. Capacity utilization (Thursday) is expected to fall to 80.0% in Q2 from 81.4% in Q1. Building permits (Thursday) are seen rising 2.0% in July after the 5.5% drop in June. The new home price index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m in July following the 0.1% gain in June. Housing starts (Friday) are seen slowing to 195.0k in August from 198.4k in July. The BOC has a rate announcement and press conference (Wednesday) with no change to the current 0.5% expected. Deputy Governor Lane has a presentation (Thursday).

Europe: The ECB will kick off this month’s round of major central bank meetings on Thursday. For Draghi the key question is whether the mixed data releases and the still low inflation numbers justify further action or mainly mean that the ECB won’t follow the Fed in its path to a policy normalisation. The data calendar has German manufacturing orders, which will be watched carefully after the marked drop in German manufacturing sentiment. The production number meanwhile is still likely to be impacted by the decline in orders seen in the proceeding months. EMU Services PMI, (Monday) is likely to be confirmed at a still robust 53.1. Tuesday, sees the final reading of Q2 GDP for the Eurozone, with the overall quarterly growth rate expected to be confirmed at 0.3%.

UK: There are several things to note about the UK. The first is that the economy has and is rebounding from the disruptive influences of the initial shock of the Brexit vote in late June, driven by the consumer sector and sharpened competitiveness from the 12%-plus decline in sterling. But the country is in a post-Brexit vote and pre-exit negotiations limbo, which is impeding business planning and investment. PM May last week repeated her “Brexit means Brexit,” which suggests the UK is destined for a “hard” EU exit, but yesterday she said queried the points-based migration plan so favoured by many Brexit voters and many in her own cabinet.

Services PMI (Monday) the August survey is expected to show a headline of 50.0 after July’s dive to 47.4. Production data for July is also up this week (Wednesday), which we expect will reveal declines of 0.1% and 0.3% in the respective industrial and manufacturing output readings. The August RICS house price index and July trade data are also up (Thursday and Friday, respectively). Last week’s August manufacturing PMI report portended a narrowing in the deficit, with manufacturers having reported increased export orders.

China: The August services PMI (Today) rose to 52.1 (a little above expectations) from 51.7, while the August trade surplus (Thursday) should narrow to $47.0 bln from $52.3 bln in July. August CPI and PPI (Friday) are penciled in at 1.8% y/y, unchanged from July, and -1.0% from -1.7%, respectively.

Japan: August services PMI (Today) fell to 49.6 from 50.4 in July.  Thursday there is the second look at Q2 GDP, which we expect will be unchanged at up 0.2% q/q.  The July current account surplus (Thursday) is seen widening to JPY 1,900.0 bln from 974.4 bln previously. August bank loan data are also set for a Thursday release. The July tertiary index (Friday) should rise 0.5% m/m as compared to June’s 0.8% increase. BoJ Governor Kuroda spoke at the at the G20 earlier today and was rather negative on the prospects of further monetary policy easing.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) is expected to hold rates steady at 1.50% after the widely expected 25 basis point cut that was delivered in August. Q2 GDP (Wednesday) is expected to moderate to an 0.4% growth rate (q/q, sa) after the 1.1% gain in Q2. The trade report (Thursday) is projected to reveal a -A3.0 bln  deficit in July after the -A$3.2 bln shortfall in June. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen at -A$22.0 in Q2 after Q1’s -A$20.0 bln in red ink. Housing finance (Friday) is expected to fall 1.0% m/m in July after the 1.2% gain in June. The Melbourne Institute Experimental Inflation Gauge (Today) rose to 1.2% from 1.0% and and ANZ job ads (Today) also rose to 1.8% from -0.8% previously. RBA Deputy Governor Lowe gives welcome and introductory remarks at an international conference in Sydney (Thursday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States:  The case for an increase in the funds rate “has strengthened,” said Fed Chair Yellen in her Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which for her was a relatively hawkish statement. That phrase only went halfway toward suggesting a tightening was in the cards near term, however, since she immediately turned to the worn “data dependency” caveat and cautioned of a still uncertain economic outlook. But, it was comments from Fed VC Fischer that excited the bears as he noted the pivotal nature of the August jobs report for the Fed outlook. Just as the advent of Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech paralyzed the markets for days, so too could the upcoming August nonfarm payroll release (Friday). Though the jobs report is a critical factor in the FOMC’s policy calculus, we doubt the Committee can credibly act as soon as September while inflation, the other half of the Fed’s mandate, is still running below target and isn’t showing convincing signs of moving higher toward the 2% target yet. Expectations area for a 185k headline increase, close to the 3-month average of 190k, might not make a clear case for a September rate hike. That would leave the onus on the other statistics, including the unemployment rate, which we see falling to 4.8% from 4.9% in July. Average hourly earnings would also be scrutinized, with our 0.2% estimate falling just shy of July’s 0.3% gain.

Other key data releases this week include July income and consumption (Monday) which will help fine tune the Q2 GDP outlook. The August ADP private payroll survey (Wednesday) should see a 175k increase. The ISM manufacturing index (Thursday) and revised Q2 productivity and unit labor costs will also be important, along with vehicle sales.  The ISM is seen slipping to 52.0 in August. That’s a very sluggish pace. Q2 productivity should be revised lower to -0.7% from -0.5% in the preliminary read. That won’t be good news for the Fed. Unit labor costs should bounce 4.2% however, nearly doubling the advance 2.2% print, and versus -0.2% in Q1. July international trade (Friday) will help solidify Q2 and Q3 GDP outlooks. Domestic vehicle sales are expected to decline after a healthy July growth. More secondary reports includes August consumer confidence (Tuesday), the August Dallas Fed (Monday) and August Chicago PMI (Wednesday), June Case Shiller house price index (Tuesday), July pending home sales, July construction spending (Thursday), and July factory orders (Friday).

Canada: Q2 GDP report (Wednesday) is expected to reveal a 1.8% drop in real Q2 GDP following the 2.4% gain in Q1 real GDP. The separate June GDP by industry report (Wednesday) is projected to show a 0.2% m/m gain after the 0.6% plunge in May. The July trade report (Friday) will be of considerable interest. Another gain in exports (we see +1.5%) would be supportive of the Q3 GDP rebound scenario. We expect the trade deficit to improve to -C$3.3 bln in July from the record -C$3.6 bln in June. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is projected to fall 0.5% m/m in July. Labor productivity (Friday) is expected to pull-back 0.4% in Q2 after the 0.4% gain in Q1. The RBC manufacturing PMI for August is due Thursday.

Europe: This week’s data releases could play a decisive role in policy decisions, (next ECB meeting September 8^th) with the ESI economic sentiment indicator completing the August survey round and preliminary August inflation data featuring high on the agenda. So far, confidence indicators have been very mixed.

August ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) to 104.4  from 104.6 in July, also, the final August EMU Manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected to be confirmed at 51.8. At the same time, inflation is creeping higher. We expect preliminary August German HICP (Tuesday) to move up to 0.5%, Italy’s index (Tuesday) is seen improving to -0.1%, with the Spanish reading (Tuesday) at -0.3 %  while the French reading (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.4% y/y. These results should accelerate the overall August Eurozone headline HICP rate (Wednesday) to 0.3% y/y, up from 0.2% y/y in July. However, that’s still considerably below the ECB’s target of nearly 2%. Even core inflation, while higher, is still at low levels historically, and is giving Draghi room to maneuver.

The labor market is slowly improving and we see the leading German jobless number for August (Wednesday) unchanged over the month. The overall Eurozone reading for July (Wednesday) is expected to drop to 10.0% from 10.1%.

UK: This week’s calendar brings the August PMI surveys for the manufacturing and construction sectors (due Thursday and Friday, respectively), in addition to the monthly lending data form the BoE, coving July (due Tuesday). We expect the manufacturing PMI to lift to a reading of 49.0, up from 48.2 in July. Weakness in the pound should have bolstered export competitiveness in the sector. The construction PMI is also expected to recover a tad from July weakness, seen rising to a headline reading of 46.3  after 45.9 in July.

China: Caixin/Markit August manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected to dip to 50.0 from the flash 50.6 print, though that would be a measurable improvement from June’s 48.6. It’s been below the 50 expansion/contraction level since March 2015. The official CFLP PMI is penciled in slipping to 49.8 from 49.9.

Japan: July unemployment (Tuesday), expected unchanged at 3.1%, July personal income (Tuesday), along with July PCE, which is forecast falling 2.0% y/y, not quite as bad as the -2.2% June outcome, though it will give the BoJ angst. Additionally, July total retail sales are expected to contract at a 1.0% y/y clip from a revised -1.3%, while sales at large retailers are expected to rebound 0.5% y/y from the prior -1.5%. First 10-day August trade data are also due. Preliminary July industrial production (Wednesday) is seen slowing to a 1.0% y/y rate from the 2.3% June increase, while July housing starts (Wednesday) should improve to up 5.0% y/y from -2.5% in June. July constriction orders are on deck Wednesday as well. The Q2 MoF capex survey (Thursday) is forecast to rise 5.0% y/y from Q1’s 4.2% reading. The final August Markit/Nikkei PMI is projected to improve slightly to 49.4 from 49.3 in July (though it’s slightly below the preliminary August print of 49.6. It’s been in contractionary territory since March. July auto sales are due Thursday, with August consumer confidence on Friday, which is seen improving to 41.6 from 41.3.

Australia: The calendar has building approvals (Tuesday), expected to rise 1.0% in July after the 2.9% drop in June. Retail sales (Thursday) are seen expanding 0.2% in July after the 0.1% rise in June. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) speaks to an FX conference in Singapore via a video link on Wednesday.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

The resumption of global stimulus measures last week, thanks to the aggressive combined measures from the BoE, which were hot on the heels of BoJ accommodation the week prior, stood at odds with the firm July U.S. payrolls report that brought forward risk of a Fed hike this year. The July employment data significantly beat most expectations, and were in sharp contrast to the big U.S. GDP miss for Q2.

United States: The economic calendar resumes with one of the missing links in the recovery: preliminary Q2 productivity (Tuesday), which is expected to rise 0.6%. Also on tap are the NFIB small business optimism index and wholesale trade. MBA mortgage market data could be impacted (Wednesday) by the yield jump following July payrolls, while JOLTS job openings and EIA energy inventories are due, along with the Treasury budget gap forecast to widen to -$129 bln in July. Import prices are set to sink 0.5% in July (Thursday); export prices may remain unchanged.  Initial jobless claims are forecast to drop 4k back to 265k for the week ended August 5. The highlight comes late in the week with the release of July retail sales (Friday), expected to rise 0.4%.  Of interest will be any potential impact from Amazon’s “Prime Day,” which may have given sales a kicker. Price data will be important too as low inflation has been a stubborn factor keeping the FOMC sidelined. On this count, PPI is set to slip 0.1% in July. Preliminary Michigan sentiment for August is set to rise to 91.0, with business inventories rising 0.2%. There is no scheduled Fedspeak this week.

Canada: The calendar features a number of housing releases, the most prominent being July housing starts. We expect starts (Tuesday) to slow to a 210.0k rate in July from the 218.3k clip in June. Building permits values (Monday) are seen growing 1.0% in June after the 1.9% drop in May. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to grow 0.4% m/m in June after the 0.7% bounce in May. The Teranet/National HPI for July will be released on Friday. The Bank of Canada is again silent this week. There is nothing on the Bank’s event calendar until the September 7 rate announcement, when we expect no change in the current 0.50% rate setting and a repeat of the cautiously optimistic growth outlook seen in July.

Europe: Eurozone confidence indicators may have come in better than expected and have shown no sign that the Brexit referendum has seriously undermined confidence in the region and backs the ECB’s wait-and-see stance. However, the aggressive move by the BOE last week puts the ECB back into focus and raises the possibility of more tweaking of the QE programme.

German industrial production is seen rebounding just 0.3% m/m in June, after falling -1.3% m/m in May, based on the weak orders number already released. Equally, Eurozone industrial production is seen rising 0.3% m/m after falling -1.2% m/m in May. However, June production numbers will be overshadowed by German and Italy preliminary Q2 GDP readings and the second and detailed Q2 GDP number for the Eurozone. We see German Q2 GDP growth slowing to 0.3%, Italian GDP is seen slipping to a 0.1% and after the slowdown in French growth already reported, the overall Eurozone GDP number is expected to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q – half the Q! figure. The calendar also contains final July inflation data, with German HICP expected to be confirmed at 0.4% y/y, the French reading at 0.4% y/y and the Italian number at -0.1% y/y. Headline rates are creeping higher, also thanks to base effects from oil prices, but readings are still sufficiently below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability to leave Draghi room to manoeuvre in September.

UK: Sterling finished last week at a 25-day closing low versus the dollar and, with the minutes to the MPC meeting on Thursday having noted that “a majority of members expected to support a further cut in the bank rate … at one of the MPC’s forthcoming meetings,” more losses seem likely. UK data this week features July RBC retail sales (Tuesday), seen at -0.7% y/y, June production data (also Tuesday), which will be too-Brexit vote tainted to interest much, and June trade data (Thursday).

China: July trade data (Monday) was expected to narrow, actually increased to  $52.31 bln from $48.1 bln previously. July foreign direct investment (Monday or Tuesday) is expected to tumble to 4.0% y/y from 9.7% in June. July CPI and PPI (Tuesday) are forecast at a 1.8% y/y pace from June’s 1.9% for the former, and -2.1% y/y from -2.6% for the latter. July loan growth data are due during the week, along with new yuan loans, which are seen falling to CNY 1,000.0 bln from 1,380.0 bln. Friday brings July industrial output, which likely dipped to 6.1% y/y from 6.2% in June. July retail sales (Friday) are estimated to have slipped to a 10.4% y/y clip from 10.6%, while July fixed investment is forecast to have slipped to 8.8% y/y from 9.0% previously.

Japan: The July bank loan and money supply figures are due Tuesday, followed with June machine orders (Wednesday), which are expected to rise 2.0% m/m from the prior -1.4% reading. July PPI (Wednesday) is forecast to show some marginal slowing in the contraction rate to -4.1% y/y from -4.2% in June. The June tertiary industry index (Wednesday) should improve to 0.1% m/m from -0.7% in May. Japan will be closed Thursday for Mountain Day holiday. Friday’s slate is empty.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted by Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens (Wednesday), who addresses the Anika Foundation Luncheon in Sydney. June housing finance (Wednesday) is seen rising 2.0% m/m after the 1.0% drop in May. ANZ job ads   expected to improve to  0.2% m/m in July after the 0.5% gain in June, actually fell by -0.8%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

The BoE and RBA are widely expected to cut rates further this week to 0.25% and 1.50% respectively, after the ECB and Fed held steady last month at 0.00% and 0.50%. However, some fatigue may be starting to show after the BoJ fell short on its expected stimulus last week and called for an examination of the effectiveness of its policy actions.

United States: Markets will be choppy this week, especially coming off of month-end gains that left bonds and stocks near record highs. The July employment report (Friday) will be the week’s data highlight. We expect a 180k increase after jumping 287k in June, just above the 172k six-month average, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.8%. The July report has lost much of its importance for the immediate Fed outlook after the disappointing GDP release on Friday largely took a September 20, 21 FOMC rate hike off the table. Along with jobs, data includes the ISM manufacturing index (Monday), projected falling 1.3 points to 52.0 and non-manufacturing data (Wednesday) seen falling 1 point to 55.5 after jumping 3.6 points to 56.5 in June. June personal income and consumption (Tuesday) will help fine-tune Q2 GDP estimates. A 0.3% increase is forecast for income and spending. Also due this week are June construction spending (Monday), July ADP private payrolls (Wednesday), and June international trade (Friday).

Earnings news will remain a key feature for the markets. Just over half of the S&P 500 have reported, and reports have been generally decent, led by Technology on strength in Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft, and eBay. This week’s slate includes Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Time Warner, Tesla, Adidas, Siemens and Viacom.

Canada: Markets are closed Monday for the Civic Holiday. The abbreviated trading week features a deluge of data on Friday. Employment is expected to rise 10.0k in July after the 0.7k dip in June. The unemployment rate is projected to tick higher to 6.9% in July from 6.8% in June. The trade deficit is expected to narrow to -C$2.9 bln in June from -C$3.3 bln in May. Exports are seen turning higher to the tune of a 1.0% gain after the 0.7% drop in May, helped by a presumed pick-up in the volume and price of oil exports. The Ivey PMI is projected to slip to 50.5 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis from 51.7 in June, in what will largely be a typically seasonal swing. Manufacturing PMI for July is also on tap (Tuesday). There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. Indeed, the Bank’s event schedule is empty until the September 7th announcement. We expect no change to the current 0.50% setting for the policy rate

Europe: The summer lull is starting to settle in with the ECB on hold until September and nothing on the data or events calendar this week that will change outlooks substantially. The final round of PMI readings should not hold major surprises and we expect the Eurozone manufacturing reading (Monday) to be confirmed at the preliminary 51.9 print and the services reading (Wednesday) at 52.7.  PMIs continue to point to expansion across both sectors, with the Brexit impact far more limited than feared, at least for now.

Meanwhile, Eurozone producer price inflation (Tuesday) is expected to jump higher and German manufacturing orders (Friday) are expected to post a 0.5% m/m rise after some weak months. The events calendar holds a German 2-year auction (Wednesday) and a French bond sale (Thursday). The ECB’s economic bulletin is also released (Thursday), but is unlikely to be much different from the tone of Draghi’s last press conference.

UK: The BoE takes the spotlight this week, with the MPC conducting its second policy meeting since the UK voted to leave the EU. Having played for time in July, the strong consensus is for the Old Lady to leap to the action stations now. We expect a 25 bp chop of the repo rate, which would dislodge it from 0.5%, where it’s been since March 2009, and put it at a new record low of 0.25%. Other policy measures are possible, though we and most expect the QE program to left in a dormant state, and remain at GBP 375 bln of total of assets accumulated between 2009 and 2012. The BoE has already been injecting liquidity into the banking system.

Despite the worrisome post-Brexit vote survey data, the FTSE 250 equity index last week more than recovered all of the losses seen in the wake of the vote to exit the EU. This reflected the passing of the initial shock of the vote and a well-performing financial system, along with a quick reconstruction of the governing Tory Party, and expectations for big stimulus, both from the BoE, this week, and via a looser fiscal policy. In contrast to the vibe in UK stock markets, the pound remains depressed by about 12% from pre-referendum levels. While a lot has already been priced into the currency with regard to Brexit-related uncertainties, more losses seem likely. Yield differentials between the UK and U.S. are at their widest since 2000 and are foraying into negative territory, while the expected BoE rate cut this week is set to put the UK policy rate below the U.S. policy rate for the first time in decades. The BoE is also wanting to guide the pound lower, which is seen as part of the “necessary” adjustments, in the words of Governor Carney.

UK data this week features the final PMI reports for July (due from Monday to Wednesday), which are expected to affirm the dismal preliminary readings. The flash estimates accounted for 80% of the total respondents. The final composite reading is expected to be confirmed at 47.7, which is consistent with Q3 GDP growth of -0.4% q/q.

China:  News released today – Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI rose unexpectedly to 50.6 from 48.6. The official July CFLP PMI edged down  to 49.9 from 50.0 and  July services PMI rose to 53.9 from 53.7.  There are no no more data releases scheduled for this week.

Japan: July consumer confidence (Tuesday) is seen falling to 41.5 from 41.8. The PMI services index is on tap Wednesday with the June coincident and leading indices due Friday. Markets will be looking for the Japanese government’s detailing of the Y28 tln stimulus package this week, which was likely why the BoJ went easy on the stimulus levers on Friday. The central bank kept the door wide open for a further policy expansion at the September 20th-21st meeting, saying it will then make a “thorough assessment” of policy, which will be the full light of the government’s exact fiscal plans.

Australia:  The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday). CPI did not provide the clear cut signal for a cut this week that analysts or the market had been hoping for, as Q2 CPI rose 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1 that drove the 25 bp May reduction. But annual CPI growth slowed to a 1.0% y/y pace in Q2 from the 1.3% growth rate in Q1, leaving the slowest growth pace since 1999. We think the slowing in the annual growth pace is enough to prompt a rate cut to 1.50% given ongoing concerns about the domestic and global growth outlook and disinflationary pressures. The Bank updates it growth and inflation projections in Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy. Economic data has June retail sales (Thursday), expected to rise 0.2% in June after the 0.2% gain in May. The trade report (Tuesday) is seen revealing a -A$2.3 bln deficit in June following the -A$2.2 bln shortfall in May. Building approvals (Tuesday) are projected to fall 1.0% in June after the 5.2% drop in May.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The economic calendar starts off gradually with the release of the Dallas Fed index (Monday), seen rising to -10.0 in July from -18.3. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices are set to rise to 1.5% to 189.5 in May (Tuesday), followed by Market services flash PMI and consumer confidence, expected to dip to 96.0 in July vs 98.0 in June. Also on tap are new home sales forecast to sink 0.7% to 547k in June from 551k. The MBA mortgage market index is on deck (Wednesday) along with durable goods orders, which are forecast to drop 0.5% in June vs -2.3% in May. NAR pending home sales are seen flat in June, while the EIA oil inventory report could swing oil prices. The trade deficit may sport a -$60.5 gap in June (Thursday), little different from May; initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 262k for the week ending July 23. Advance Q2 GDP is the main headliner (Friday), forecast to rise 2.7% and the Survey Median shows a 2.6% growth rate, more than double the 1.1% pace of Q1. Q2 ECI may tick up 0.4% vs 0.6% in Q1, or 2.2% on a y/y basis, while Chicago PMI is set to drop to 53.0 in July vs 56.8 and Michigan sentiment steadies at 89.5 in July.

FOMC preview: Expected to maintain a steady policy stance at its 2-day meeting. The tone of the statement released Wednesday will be scrutinized for insights on the policy path over the rest of the year. The outlook should be biased to optimistic side give the improved data, which support forecasts for Q2 GDP of about 2.7%, and as the markets have recovered from the initial Brexit gyrations. But it’s not clear whether those factors will change policymaker outlooks, or merely conform to their views. Yellen and others, including the more hawkish members, have shown a strong preference toward caution and that’s not likely to change for now. Yet risk is for a more hawkish statement than expected as the outlook on the labor market is likely to be upgraded versus June’s, which noted some slowing in the improvement. The Fed may start to nuance its verbiage toward more confidence in rising inflation pressures, but that may not be seen yet. We also don’t expect any specific mention of Brexit, though its potential bearish effects could be couched in terms of general “global economic and financial developments,” which the Fed will continue to monitor.

Canada: A thin calendar ends with a flourish this week, as the definitive May GDP report (Friday) will detail the impact of the Fort McMurray wildfire on the national economy. We expect GDP to plunge 0.4% m/m in May after the 0.1% gain in April. The industrial product price index (IPPI), also due Friday, is expected to rise 0.5% (m/m, nsa) in June after the 1.1% surge in May. Average weekly earnings (Thursday) are projected to gain 0.1% m/m in May after the 0.3% drop in April. The CFIB’s Business Barometer for July (Thursday) it improved to 60.0 in June after falling to 58.2 in May from 59.2 in April.

Europe: The data packed week will be somewhat anti-climactic after Draghi confirmed the central bank’s wait and see stance. German Ifo Business Climate index (Today), where we are looking for a dip in the overall reading to 108.2 from 108.7. The European Commission’s ESI Economic Confidence indicator is seen falling back to 104.0 from 104.4. Preliminary Q1 GDP numbers from France,

Spain and for the Eurozone as a whole are expected to show growth of just 0.1% q/q in France, 0.4% q/q in Spain and a slowdown to 0.3% for overall Eurozone GDP as a whole. Overall Eurozone unemployment is seen steady to 10.1% in June, while the more timely German jobless number for July is expected to leave the jobless rate unchanged at a very low 6.1%. Inflation is rising lowly we are looking for a slight rise in German prel HICP inflation to 0.3% y/y in July from 0.2% y/y and a rise to 0.4% y/y from 0.3% y/y in France, which together with an equally slight uptick in the Spanish headline rate should bring the overall Eurozone HICP (Friday) to 0.2% y/y from 0.1% y/y.

UK: The July editions of the CBI industrial trends and distributive sales (a measure of retail and wholesale activity) surveys, along with the July Gfk consumer confidence, will provide the post-Brexit snapshots this week. The Industrial trends survey (Today) is likely to ebb to -6 reading from +2. Distributive sales (Wednesday) is seen falling to +1 in the headline realized sales figure, from +4. The July Gfk consumer confidence (Friday) has us expecting a dive to -6 from -1 in June. The first estimate of Q2 GDP (Wednesday), which we expect at +0.5% q/q and +2.1% y/y. The report will be too Brexit to be of much interest. June BBA mortgage approvals (Tuesday) are seen ebbing to 39.5k from May’s 42.2k, which would continue the unwind seen since April, when a tax hike on investment property transactions was imposed. Monthly BoE lending data for June are also up (Friday).

China:  June leading indicators are due Thursday.

Japan: June services PPI (Tuesday) are seen at up 0.1% y/y from the 0.2% prior increase. The balance of the busy schedule comes on Friday, beginning with CPI data, where national June headline prices are seen falling to -0.5% y/y from -0.4%, and core prices expected down 0.5% from -0.4% in May. Tokyo July CPI is expected unchanged at -0.5% for both overall and core readings. June unemployment is forecast unchanged at 3.2%, while the job offer/seeker ratio is penciled in at 1.37 from 1.36. June personal income is on tap, along with June PCE, which is expected down 0.5% y/y from May’s -1.1% outcome. June industrial production likely rose 0.2% y/y versus the sharp -2.6% reading in May. June retail sales are forecast at -1.7% y/y for large retailers from May’s -2.1%, and -1.5% y/y overall, as compared to the previous -1.9% outcome. June housing starts are seen falling 5.0% y/y from the 9.8% increase in May. June construction orders are also due.

The BoJ announces its policy decision on Friday following its 2-day meeting. We expect a mix of easing measures from both the monetary and fiscal sides of the ledger, which may include infrastructure spending, and expansion of asset purchases, including corporate bonds and ETFs.

Australia: CPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.3% q/q in Q2 after the 0.2% drop in Q1 that triggered the May rate cut to 1.75% from 2.00%. But the annual growth rate should slow to 1.0% in Q2 from 1.3% in Q1, which in our view would strongly suggest another rate cut from the RBA in August. Other inflation data is out this week. Trade prices for Q2 (Thursday) are projected to show a 3.5% gain in import prices (q/q, sa) and a 0.5% dip in export prices. The PPI (Friday) is expected to rise 0.2% (q/q, sa) in Q2 after the 0.2% drop in Q1.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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