GBPJPY & Cable Hit Target 2 – Sterling Sags

2016-09-19_16-03-31

GBPJPY, Daily              

Sterling suffered on Friday from reports on Bloomberg that the UK finance minister (Philip Hammond) is ready to accept the fact that the UK may have to give up single-market membership in the European Union to achieve the immigration restrictions voters  demanded in the Brexit vote.  Cable closed the day and week down 1.8 percent and GBPJPY slumped from north of 135.00 to close under 133.00.

The slip in sterling has helped both our SHORT GBP trades reach Target 2 – GBYJPY (132.80) and GBPUSD (1.3070) for a net gain on both trades of over 600 pips.

2016-09-19_16-58-32

Today the USD has traded softer and corrected some of its outperformance from Friday, Market conditions have been thin with Tokyo markets absent and with market participants largely on the sidelines ahead of the Fed and BoJ policy decisions this week. USDJPY ebbed back under 102.00, breached Friday’s low on route to a four-session low at 101.69. EURUSD traded in a narrow orbit of 1.1150. Cable recouped some of the sharp losses seen on Friday, lifting above 1.3080, well over half a big figure up on the day.

However, the close of the day and week below the psychological 1.3000 level is definitely one to watch. Next break lower would be the August low of 1.2860, the post Brexit low of 1.2780 and then 1.2500.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY looking to go lower

2016-09-09_11-57-04

GBPJPY, Daily              

The GBPJPY has been in a steady uptrend from the August 16 low (below 130.00) to the September 2 high (138.72). That now looks to be fading, following three days of falls followed by a reprieve yesterday.  The pair remained below the 23.6 Fib level from the pre Brexit high and although still above the 20 DMA and with positive SAR a SHORT trade was triggered at 136.18. Target 1 is 134.50 and Target 2 132.80. Support at the 50 DMA and psychological 135.00 level will provide resistance to the move lower. The current 14 Day ATR is 1.435.

The UK trade deficit narrowed in July data, with the balance ebbing to a GBP 4.5 bln deficit from GBP 5.6 bln in June. The goods deficit fell to GBP 11.8 bln from GBP 12.4. The Official for National Statistics doesn’t attribute the narrowing in the deficit to post-Brexit vote fall in the pound, which by its trade-weighted calculation of the sterling Exchange Rate Index fell 6.6% in July versus the average level in June and by 15.0% versus July 2015. The stats office highlights studies on the impact of sterling weakness on trade, showing that the sharp declines in the pound in 2008/9 led to import price rising more than export prices, for instance, suggesting that there is no guarantee that a weaker currency will translate into improved net export performance in the UK economy.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Sterling registering record levels – GBPJPY

2016-07-05_16-35-47

GBPJPY, Weekly           

A second UK property fund stopped redemptions, with Aviva Investments earlier halting retail investors from cutting out of its UK Property Trust, citing “extraordinary market circumstances.” This follows the lead of Standard Life, which yesterday blocked retail investor redemptions from its commercial property fund. Both funds said they lack liquid holdings to cover withdrawal demands. The fear is that more will follow, and that these funds will in turn be forced to sell property. Welcome to post-Brexit Britain. BoE Governor Carney earlier said that the central bank has “a clear plan” to keep the banking system operating and that the central bank is “rapidly putting its main elements into place,” emphatically adding that “it is working.” Carney conceded that the BoE will not “fully and immediately” be able to offset market and economic volatility..

Sterling continues to weaken: cable breaches 1.3100 (losing 1.5% today and recording new 31 year lows) and EURGBP breaks 0.8500 gaining 1.7%. The heaviest fall, as the markets move to significant risk off thanks to continued Brexit uncertainty, is GBPJPY losing over 2.3% today.

GBPJPY can trade lower still from these levels (134.00), the next Support is at 131.50, 128.50 and 125.60. However, as we move lower these targets become more difficult to achieve. Momentum is to the downside and although technically oversold, never underestimate the power of fear and greed.

Always trade with strict risk management and remember that your capital is your single most important financial trading asset.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Retail Sales Stronger – Sterling weaker

2016-06-16_12-30-33

GBPJPY, H4        

Post-UK data gains in the pound were reigned in as the stellar retail sales report for May, which was replete with big up revisions in April data, were offset by a new Brexit poll from Ipso Mori putting the Vote Leave campaign six points in the lead. Seven of the last eight polls have put Leave ahead.

UK retail sales, meanwhile, came in much stronger than expected in official data for May, rising 0.9% m/m and by 6.0%y/y from upwardly revised April figures of +1.9% m/m (originally 1.3%) and +5.2% (originally 4.3%). The median forecasts had been for just 0.1% m/m and 3.7% y/y growth. The data kicks into touch the idea that the run-in to the Brexit vote would have impeded retail activity. Cable, after some oscillations, is presently near the midpoint of the day’s range, at 1.4165 which has itself remained within yesterday’s range. GBPJPY remains south of 148.00 and EURGBP north of 0.7950.  Risk remains to the downside given the real chance for the UK voting to leave the EU at next Thursday’s referendum.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY Target 1 hit, USDJPY awaiting Daily close

2016-06-13_10-41-48

GBPJPY, Daily        

The third week of June has got off to a very volatile start as markets rush to risk averse safe havens. The JPY, CHF, Gold and Government Bonds continue their appeal as money flows from Equities, (Japans Nikkei 225 closed down 3.51% today), Oil and the GBP.

USDJPY traded has low as 105.74, before recovering the 106.00 handle today.  The Daily support at 106.25 has been broken this morning and a close today below this level today will trigger a SHORT position with a Target 1 of 105.50.  

2016-06-13_10-52-03 

Last week we took 200+ pips on the GBPJPY as it rebounded up from 154.30 which we identified on Monday (June 6th). On Friday  this level was  breached and broken and triggered a sell on at the close at 152.43. Target 1 at the recent low of 151.78 (again identified Monday 6th)  this has been completed this morning for a net gain of 65 pips. The pair continue to look weak and has traded as low as 150.08 today. The Monthly support is at 148.80, 145.15 and 140.20 from 2013 and is likely to be tested with a Brexit vote or indeed a  very close vote in the UK EU Referendum next week .

Trading on the Daily time frame allows for Target and Entry levels to be set without the “noise” of the intra-day moves, and although we have “missed” the larger moves trading this way, the benefit is that you do not enter a market too soon.  Patience is a skill that all successful traders practice every time they open a trade.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY Retraces to target

2016-06-07_10-01-14

GBPJPY, Daily        

Following the big gaps on the GBP pairs yesterday  after the surprise lead for the Leave group in the UK EU Referendum, I wrote that GBPJPY “Technically sterling is looking oversold, and should retrace from here. I expect some retracement from this current oversold level (153.30 at the time) to the 156.00 – 157.000 area”.

Thanks in part to more polls, Sterling rallied on new Brexit polls, which indicate a swing back of support for the Remain-in-the-EU campaign, the retrace was completed with 24 hours for a net gain of over 200 pips.

Two new polls, a YouGov survey for the Times and an ORB telephone poll for the Telegraph, showed the Remain camp in the lead, reversing yesterday’s polls that showed the opposite. Cable spiked over 1.5% to an eight-day peak of 1.4662 before ebbing back to the low 1.45s, still up over 50 pips from yesterday’s closing level. The mix of the Brexit polls and the thin market for sterling in Asia caused the whippy price action.

The Daily support remains at 154.30 and this level needs to be breached and broken before any further down action, on the upside 160.60 and 162.00 will provide resistance.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBP Opens the week very weak

2016-06-06_10-26-35

GBPJPY, Daily        

Big gaps on the GBP pairs this morning as two new polls shows the “Leave “ camp moving into the lead. 17 days to polling  day and a poll by YouGov for ITV’s “Good Morning Britain” has the leave camp on 45% and Remain on 41%.  A poll by TNS has the Leave camp with a 2% lead on 43% and Remain on 41%. 16% of respondents polled by TNS were Undecided.

Ladbrokes now has a Brexit at 30.7% up from 28.5% June 1.

The GBP fell on the news in Asian trading and has fallen further as the European session opens. Sterling is currently 0.7880 against the EUR, GBPUSD touched 1.4351 before covering to 1.4400 and GBPJPY broke 153.00 before recovering to 154.32.

Technically sterling is looking oversold, and should retrace from here. The GBPJPY pair could test the April and Fibonacci low of 151.80, and further down the Monthly time frame support is at 148.80.  The Daily support of 154.30 needs to be breached and broken before this next leg down.  I expect some retracement from this current oversold level to the 156.00 – 157.000 area.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY – A Tail of 2 Targets

GBPJPY – A Tail of 2 Targets

GBPJPY, Daily
On Wednesday I posted my thoughts on the divergence between the sentiment towards the GBP and JPY. This along with the technicals from the charts suggested more downside for the pair. This duly ensued as the pair traded lower and then retraced up to my entry over 155.00. The overnight and early morning move yesterday was very substantial and my initial (T1) 80 pip target 154.20 was achieved over night. Target 2, a further 80 pips at 153.40 followed quickly in the European morning session.

This move was much more aggressive than I imagined, but this can happen as momentum builds and both my targets were achieved within 24 hours. A net gain of 160 pips, interesting.

Trends, be they in sentiment, chart patterns or fundamentals have a self-sustaining momentum and will run until they exhaust the energy that started them. Markets also over react and the huge surge we have had in the JPY this week will inevitably cool, as we are seeing this morning, before the trend is re-established (probable) or runs out of energy completely (less probable).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

 GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

GBPJPY, 4 Hour

Yesterday I wrote about the GBPJPY pair on the 4 hour chart and concluded that a SHORT trade with “An initial target around 161.20 (20Day Moving Average), 161.00 and further out to 160.60  from current 161.85 levels. A recent high of 162.50 areas provides a stop area”

Although the pair achieved my two target areas I was stopped out (the daily high being only a couple of pips above my stop area.)

So I had a losing trade, that went on to hit both my targets. As a trader this happens and we simply have to add to our Trading Journal and learn from it. Always analyse your trades – both winners and losers.

Trading really is a mind game and accepting a loss is probabaly the most important aspect of that mind game. I learnt many years ago that winning and losing trades are always simply “interesting”. Losing trades happen and will continue to happen, however, with the correct risk and money management you always stay in the game and have funds to take the next opportunity that comes along.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY, Rising 5 Wave Sequence?

GBPJPY, Rising 5 Wave Sequence?

GBPJPY, 4 Hour

Within the GBPJPY 4 hour chart I am spotting the potential development of a basic Elliott Wave 5 wave sequence.  See (1), (3) and the possible (5?) impulse waves, with the corrective waves being (2) and the possible (4?).

My strategy for this trade consists of two trades broken down in two parts. Trade 1 of part 1 is to short the pair till price is within my “Go Long Zone” (see above chart) 1st target , at that point I will reverse my short trade into a long position (trade 2 of part 2) for a 2nd target within the “Target Zone “ as indicated in the above chart.

Jan 29 GBPJPY SRL

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.