The Economic Week Ahead for 10.31.2016


Main Macro Events This Week

FBI’s Comey dropped a bombshell on the markets late Friday as he announced the agency would be reviving the Clinton email probe after learning, via a separate investigation, of the existence of apparently “pertinent” messages on a PC owned by Anthony Weiner (estranged husband of Clinton advisor Huma Abedin). In his letter, Comey reportedly told key members of Congress that his agency should take “appropriate investigative steps.” Wall Street dropped on the news, though a bounce in Biotech and Pharma shares (on the hot seat under Clinton) helped the Dow recover toward unchanged levels. The Mexican peso, the de facto election barometer, was the main casualty of the news, plunging 1.4% before closing 0.9% lower. Concurrently, bond yields closed modestly lower on short covering and risk aversion. This heightened uncertainty will make for an extraordinary run up to the November 8 election.

United States: The FOMC (Tuesday, Wednesday) will be a point of interest for the markets this week, but not quite the center of attention it usually is. The pick-up in Advance Q3 GDP to 2.9% helped clear the way for a hike in December, and implied futures were suggesting about a 75-80% probability — the November 1, 2 FOMC was never really in the running due to the election. Other data this week will have more relevance for how the markets set up for the December policy decision. Remember, the onus is on the data to keep the Fed sidelined at year end. Personal income (Monday) and PCE. Chicago PMI and  Dallas Fed index (Tuesday) and construction spending. MBA mortgage applications are on tap (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey set to increase 160k in October. Q3 productivity (Thursday) along with. Initial jobless claims, ISM services and factory goods orders.  The employment report will highlight on Friday, with October nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by 174k vs 156k in September, with a 160k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick back down to 4.9% from 5.0% in September. The workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a second month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.

The Q3 earnings announcements continue this week. So far, most of the S&P companies which have announced have beaten estimates.  This week includes Electronic Arts, Pfizer, Alibaba, Allergan, Facebook, Fitbit, Time Warner, Kraft Heinz, Adidas, Liberty Global, Starbucks and BMW.

Canada: A heavy slate of economic data this week: The industrial product price index (Monday), GDP (Tuesday), Employment (Friday) is projected to fall 15.0k in October, but after the stunning 67.2k surge in September. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0%. The trade deficit also (Friday) is expected to narrow to -C$1.8 bln in September from -C$1.9 bln in August, as Canada’s trade position continues to gradually improve. The October RBC manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and October Ivey PMI (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Preliminary Eurozone Q3 GDP numbers and October inflation data will be in focus this week, which together with the final readings for October PMI surveys, will add to the data mix that could prove decisive for the ECB December decision on future QE purchases. Preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) meanwhile is seen accelerating to 0.5% y/y.The data calendar also has unemployment numbers from Germany for October, (Wednesday). Eurozone September unemployment (Thursday) is seen steady at 10.2%. German retail sales and French production data are also on the slate.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time since September (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will at the same time release the latest Quarterly Inflation Report with updated growth and inflation projections. While last week brought some good news, including the solid Q3 GDP report and news that Nissan will remain committed to its manufacturing operations in Brexit-bound Britain, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. S&P affirmed its AA credit rating for the UK late on Friday, although the agency maintained its negative outlook and warned that Brexit “presents a significant risk to the UK’s track record of strong economic performance, and to its large financial sector in particular.” The UK data calendar is also busy this week. Monthly BoE lending data (Monday) should see lending stabilize. The October PMI surveys highlight. The manufacturing PMI release (Tuesday), the construction PMI (Wednesday) and the services PMI (Thursday). Outcomes in-line with expectations would affirm that the economy is continuing to expand in early Q4.

China: The only reports are the services and manufacturing PMI measures (both Tuesday).

Japan: The BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) will be anxiously awaited amid policy uncertainties. While Governor Kuroda and Company are not expected to reveal any changes to the QE program, the markets will be watching for any shift to the Bank’s timeline for hitting its inflation goal of 2%. Data wise September preliminary industrial production, Retail sales , housing starts, construction orders and auto sales are all published  (Monday). The Nikkei/Markit October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 48.0 from 48.2 previously. October consumer confidence (Wednesday) is forecast at 42.5 from 43.0 previously, while October services PMI is due Friday. The markets are closed for a holiday Thursday.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% setting for the policy rate. Building approvals (Wednesday), the trade deficit (Thursday), Retail sales (Friday) and finally the October Melbourne Institute inflation index (Monday) is also scheduled for release.



Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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