FX News Today

The U.S. calendar is busy today ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. Weekly jobless claims are a day early due to Thursday’s holiday, and are expected to rise to 285k from 271k.

European calendar quiet today, with Italian orders, retail sales, U.K. BBA lending.

Crude Oil has made two week highs of $43.40, as geopolitics are seen as the market mover following Turkey’s downing of a Russian military jet. Also providing support to price is the slightly softer dollar, also a rationale for traders to close short positions ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving break.

U.S. reports yesterday revealed an expected Q3 GDP growth boost to 2.1% from 1.5%. Personal income revisions for both Q2 and Q3 saw a sharp raise in the savings rate, as will be reinforced in today’s monthly income report. The higher savings rate could be seen as evidence of greater household caution, though it also leaves room for a stronger consumption path into 2016.

The Fed discount rate minutes showed 9 District banks voted to hike the rate at its October 26 meeting. That’s one more than at the prior meeting on September 15, as the Boston Fed joined the ranks of those voting for a 25 bp increase in the primary credit rate to 1.0%. The number of District banks voting for an increase has been on the rise all year; in January 9 banks had voted to maintain a steady rate. Directors generally noted positive economic conditions, and those arguing for a tightening saw improving conditions in the labor market which should help boost inflation. This adds to the speculation that the FOMC will vote to lift rates at its December 15th, 16th policy meeting.

The U.K. CBI survey showed a much lower than expected reported sales reading for November, which dropped to 7 from 19 in the previous month. At the same time BoE members sounded dovish, with Chief Economist Haldane saying in his annual report that the balance of risks to growth and inflation outlooks is skewed materially to the downside, more so than reflected in the November inflation report. BoE’s Carney warned that the low interest rate environment is likely to remain for some time to come and BoE’s Forbes said the bank probably won’t have to implement further easing, and that the next rate move is probably more likely to be a hike.

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Durable Goods Orders (Oct): October durable orders are seen rebounding 0.5% after the 1.2% September drop. Analyst forecast October personal income to increase 0.4%, from September’s weak 0.1% rise, while PCE is seen up 0.4% as well, from the 0.1% increase previously.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly jobless claims are a day early due to Thursday’s holiday, and are expected to rise to 285k from 271k.

• USD New Home Sales: October new home sales are expected to bounce 2.6% to 480k from the prior 11.5% drop to 468k. The September FHFA home price index is forecast at 225.4 from 224.9.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

EURUSD is slightly firmer today, after printing a new seven month low of 1.0592 yesterday. The market will now focus on the up- coming data releases out of Europe, while the U.S. has economic data to be released later today.

Commodity prices largely stabilized, with oil prices picked up in overnight trade. The oil market has been choppy after Saudi Arabia said it was ready to work with other OPEC members to stabilize the market.

German Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q, as expected. The breakdown, which was released for the first time, was pretty much as expected with strong domestic demand helping to compensate for a negative contribution from net exports. Consumption is holding up the economy, but also boosting import growth, although the sharp rise in government consumption of 1.3% q/q was a bit of a surprise. The data confirms pronounced investment weakness over the summer, with machinery and equipment investment down -0.8% q/q and construction investment down -0.3% q/q. Not really a picture of balanced growth, even if for once this recovery is not export led, but consumption led.

German Nov Ifo, the stronger than expected PMI readings for Germany yesterday coupled with the improvement in the ZEW and the rise in Eurozone consumer confidence all back our forecasts for a slight rise in the German Ifo Business Climate index to 108.3 (med 108.1), versus 108.2 in October. The improved numbers, as well as vocal resistance against additional QE measures make it unlikely that the central bank will expand its asset purchase program next week, but in our view won’t prevent another cut in the deposit rate, especially as even some of the hawks seem to agree that the zero lower bound has moved since the ECB first introduced negative rates.

Main Macro Events Today

• The German Ifo index: Beat expectations and jumped to 109 from 108.2 in the previous month. Expectations had been for a broadly steady number, but with both current conditions and future expectations indices moving up, the overall index rose to the highest level since June last year. The diffusion index, shows optimists outnumber pessimists in all sectors, although most notably is the rebound in manufacturing confidence, which belies the weak orders data, concerns about slowing growth in emerging markets and the emission scandal. Bund futures actually moved higher going into the data and took a while to come off highs after the release, but the strong round of confidence data backs our view that a widening of the ECB’s asset purchase program at the current juncture is unlikely, although another cut in the deposit rate further into negative territory remains on the cards.

• USD GDP: Analyst expect that Q3 GDP to be revised up to 2.1% from 1.5% in the first report, following 3.9% growth in Q2. Forecast risk: downward, given the huge inventory boost that might be absorbed via price assumptions. Market risk: downward, as a weaker report could delay the Fed rate hike. Inventories are expected to be revised up by $28 bln. Net exports should be revised down by $2 bln. Construction spending should be revised down by $1 bln. Consumption spending should be revised down by $1 bln.

• USD Consumer Confidence: November Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 98.5 from 97.6. This compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: upward, given the increase in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike time-lines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

ECB Heading for 20 bp Deposit Rate Cut: The ECB is heading for additional stimulus measures in December, with governing council members clearly pushing for further easing as Draghi and Praet once again raise the specter of deflation fears even as core inflation is moving higher. But while officials are not tiring of highlighting that the ECB cannot be the only player supporting growth, it seems pretty clear that central bankers are having their eye more on equity markets than the traditional long term inflation indicators the Bundesbank focused on. Boosting growth and keeping markets happy has become the centre focus and despite the fact that a move further into negative territory will put additional pressure on insurers and banks, a deposit rate cut in December, and likely a sizeable one is coming into focus.

Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart said he’s comfortable raising rates assuming there’s no marked downturn in the economic outlook, but the path after lift-off may be “slow and halting” as the Fed attempts to find a potentially lower equilibrium. He said the criterion for lift-off has been met on the labor front, while inflation is expected to pick up amid little evidence of disinflation. He’s encouraged that the economy is growing at a moderate pace despite weak energy and export sectors. The rate complex has largely already bought into a December hike and is discounting this via curve flattening, though Lockhart is seen as the fourth most credible at the Fed, according to the WSJ survey, just behind Yellen, Fischer and Dudley

Fed funds futures continue to point to a 25 bp hike in December with close to 70% probability in the wake of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and along with recent Fedspeak and data. At this point it might take something extra ordinary to again delay a move, though we won’t put it past the markets to try via a tightening tantrum heading into the December 15-16 policy meeting. The futures market is also pricing in a shallow trajectory of hikes over the first half of 2016, with the implied March contract trading at 0.37% and July at 0.56%. The Fed has indicated it won’t follow the predictable 25 bp hikes seen during Greenspan’s tenure, but we don’t look for any outsized rate boosts in the early goings. Note that hawks take over the voting rotation in 2016 with Bullard, George, and Mester coming on board.

US leading indicators bounced 0.6% to 124.1 in October after falling 0.1% to 123.3 (August was revised slightly lower to 123.4 from 123.5). The index has risen in 6 of the 10 months to date and is above 124.0 for the first time since April 2006. Nine of the 10 components made positive contributions, led by the yield curve (0.22%), stocks (0.16%) and building permits (0.12%).

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Draghi’s Speech: marketsexpect clues on the next month’s ECB meeting and to get Draghi’s view on how recent terrorist attack in Paris will impact on confidence in Europe.

• Canada Retail Sales Preview: We expect retail sales, due today, to fall 0.1% m/m in September (median +0.2%) after the 0.5% gain in August. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen falling 0.4% m/m (median same at -0.4%) versus the flat reading in August, as a 7.9% plunge in gasoline prices drives both measures lower.

• Canada CPI Preview: We expect CPI to slow to a 0.9% y/y pace in October following the 1.0% y/y growth rate in September as lower gasoline prices again exert a drag. Core CPI is projected to grow at 2.1% y/y in October, matching the 2.1% in September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.