USOil, Daily               

The crude oil market has continued to surge higher after last week’s deal by the OPEC cartel to cut production. The jury is still out on whether or not OPEC/Russia can implement the agreed production cuts, though as long as the psychologically important $50 level holds, upside focus will continue.

Fundamentally, the 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut agreed within OPEC in Vienna, following failure earlier in the year at Doha and Algiers, could be the tipping point the oil industry has been waiting for.  It is hoped non-OPEC countries will contribute a 600,000 bpd cut (with 300,000 coming from Russia). Russian and OPEC officials are said to be meeting in Moscow 10th December to finalize the agreement.  Agreement is one thing but implementation remains open to question as historically OPEC countries have been very reluctant to stick to their own agreed quotas. Monitoring any agreement remains difficult.

Technically, there is resistance, a strong pivot point and triple high around the $51.85 level on the Daily chart. Today USOil trades north of this level at $52.00 as the USD weakens a little, following a strong run during November and in line NFP figures on Friday.

Over the longer-term the Monthly time frame shows support around the 20 period moving average at $50.50 and an upside Target 1 of $56.00 (38.2 Fibonacci level) and Target 2 $62.00 (50 period moving average) should the $55.00 resistance area be breached.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USOil Daily              

Before I left for holidays I had two open trades, USOil (Buy) and UK100 (Sell). The USOil trade hit Target 2 ($44.55) from my entry at $39.79 and continued all the way to north of $48.50 before turning south again.  The UK100 trade was closed on the rally to 6880 from my entry at 6720 in the middle of July.

Today I have re-entered the USOil trade ($46.25) this time on the short side as the psychological $47.00 level and 61.8 fib level were both breached and broken on yesterdays close. Target 1 at $44.55 is above the 38.2 Fib level and a little over the 2 week ATR. However, it is but below the 50.0 Fib level, 20 and 50 DMA which all currently coalesce around $45.50, so expect some resistance here before the move lower.  Target 2 at $42.25 and sub $40.00 again, cannot be ruled out.

Alternatively, the $45.50 areal could provide support for a move back to the August high of $48.88 and another attempt to break the psychological $50.00. OPEC sees demand for oil increasing during Q3 and Q4 of 2016 and that higher prices will prevail. The International Energy Forum (IEF) meets September 26-28 in Algeria with OPEC member countries due to meet informally during the event.

Today the crude markets have ignored remarks from the Iraqi PM that he supports proposals by OPEC for a production freeze, which is set to be discussed at next month’s meeting. Most energy analysts have been downplaying prospects for a production freeze due to Iran’s ongoing build up of supply following the lifting of sanctions (production still remains well off pre-sanction levels), which has been irksome to Saudi Arabia.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USOil, Daily              

On Friday (August 5) I posted my analysis from overnight and the webinar on Thursday for the Oil market and how we were expecting a bounce and retrace from the significant two week decline.

This morning Target 1 was achieved at $42.25 from our entry at $39.79. Target 2 and the 38.2 Fib retracement remains at $44.15.  There has been some news from OPEC too this morning that has helped the retrace. They announced that they will meet “informally” on the sidelines at the IEF (International Energy Forum) conference in September. Also that they see demand for oil increasing in Q3 and Q4 and that the decline in the Oil price is only temporary and that higher prices should prevail during the rest of 2016.

In the short term $42.00 and $41.80 could now become a support levels with $42.50 the resistance level, then $43.20 and our target 2 over $44.00.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USOil, H1   

Front month US Oil crude spiked up more than $1/bbl to $45.23 from $44.20 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 3.4 mln bbl fall in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 0.5 mln bbl increase. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 0.5 mln bbls actually fell 1.2 mln bbls, while distillate stocks were down 1.6 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 mln bbl fall. Refinery usage fell to 89.1% from 89.7%.

Overall, a very bullish report. USDCAD also fell as expected, having been north of 129.00 today and as high as 1.2935 it is currently trading down at 1.2850.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.