GBPAUD, Daily               

On Friday (October 21)  I posted two short term rebound trades for sterling, GBPCAD and GBPCHF. The GBPCAD went on to target 1 at close on Friday for a net gain of 160 pips. This allowed me to add to the sentiment today with a similar position on GBPAUD.  The GBPAUD was not as positive as the GBPCHF and GBPCAD on Friday, however, the close on Friday confirmed the entry and with GBPCAD reaching target 1 this reduced the exposure to sterling. Last Thursday GBPAUD created a tweezer bottom and short term floor following the September down trend for the pair. Entry was today on a retrace of Fridays close at 1.6020, target 1 is a a little less than the 14 Day ATR and Target 2 around the confluence of Fibonacci levels from the higher time frames downward move and the 20 DMA at 1.6335. The Parabolic SAR also turned positive on Thursday; however, the higher time frames are still in down trends so this position is against the prevailing trend.

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPCAD, Daily               

Yesterday’s (October 20) close saw GBPCAD close at a week’s high following a reversal from below 1.5950 on Monday. Tuesday’s hammer candle and close over 1.6100 suggested that the short term floor may be in, sterling then picked up across most pairs yesterday. A LONG position was opened today at 1.6140 with a short term target 1 at 1.6300 and target 2 at the 23.6 Fibonacci level and 20 DMA at 1.6515. The Parabolic SAR remains negative and the higher timeframes are still in down trends so this position is against the prevailing trend.

There are signs that that the relentless downward momentum and sentiment against sterling may at last be easing, at least in some currency crosses.  GBPCHF formed a tweezer bottom last week and has edged higher over the last six sessions. The break over 1.2100 has been held and yesterday’s hammer candle confirmed a LONG position today at 1.2131.  Target 1 is around the 14 Day ATR at 1.2268 and the 20 DMA, Target 2 is at the 50 DMA and the post Brexit 38.2 Fibonacci level at 1.2570.  This position is against the higher longer term weekly and monthly time frames, so the move up may be limited.

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPCAD, Daily              

The pound has settled following its recent two-week period of underperformance. The Fed’s less hawkish than anticipated guidance has given Cable a prop but the rally in the Oil price has helped the CAD tick up and the GBPCAD SHORT trade to reach Target 1 (1.7022). This 180 pip gain from the entry on Tuesday (September 20) takes the net gain for the four GBP positions to 954 pips this month.

The oil price has been a major mover in the last few days and again today it is up another 1%, reflecting in part the generally weaker dollar and in part by the risk-on vibe that the Fed’s less hawkish than expected stance generated. The Brent future benchmark (UK Oil) is presently showing a 0.9% gain, at $47.24 and the WTI (USOil) at $45.89. This takes the week-on-week gain to 1.4% while month-on-month, oil prices are still down by 5.4%, reflecting bigger-picture markets concerns of the supply glut lasting into 2017. Next weeks meetings at the 15th International Energy Forum (IEF15) in Algiers may involve formal rather than informal talks between OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Bloomberg reported that the cartel is looking to cut crude supplies by 1 million barrels a day to re-balance markets and stabilize prices.

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPCAD, Daily              

The pressure on the pound continued today following some relief yesterday. The GBPUSD (Cable) level at 1.30000 remains a very key area, buyers came in around here yesterday but so far today its GBP being sold short and the pair are currently trading at 1.2970 with worries over upcoming Brexit negotiations beginning to weigh significantly.

The GBPCAD breached and broke the key 20 DMA on Friday following the rejection of the 200 DMA last Wednesday and Thursday. Yesterdays close below the 20 DMA and the turn of the Parabolic SAR on Friday suggested further weakness and a SHORT trade was entered on Mondays close at 1.7202.  The 50 DMA could provide support before a further move lower to Target 1 at 1.7022 and further down to Target 2 at 1.6830.

Weakness in the Oil price is hampering the CAD currently; however, the on-going uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations continue to undermine the pound.

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPCAD, Daily      

The BoE left inflation forecasts near unchanged and maintained that the next policy move would likely be a tightening. It also emphasized that economic and financial indicators are likely to be less informative than usual due to Brexit uncertainties. It seems that both sterling markets and the BoE are in a wait-and-see mode. Much will depend on the evoluation of polling outcomes as the Jun-23 referendum draws nearer. The FT Brexit poll tracker currently has 46% for “Remain” and 43% for “Leave,” while Ladbroke betting odds show 71% for the UK to remain in the EU.

The press conference was even more interesting than usual with the normally unflappable Mr Carney seemingly somewhat stressed by the constant referrals to Brexit. He was pushed by the BBC correspondent and he finally (some in the leave camp say it was planned) uttered the “R” word. Recession. In his defence the BoE have two mandates that of fiscal prudence and secondly of transparency. If the UK did tip in to negative growth (and even recession)  in the second half of 2016 and he had not expressed the BOE’s view prior to the Referendum, then he (they) would have been accused of poor judgement.

This glut of data surrounding sterling yesterday and the inevitable noise that comes with it lead me to take a closer look at the GBP pairs on yesterdays close.  GBPCAD was the pair on the daily chart that looked most interesting:

The Canadian oil sands fires have not damaged production as much as initially thought and  the facilities will be back sooner than anticipated, the rally in the oil price keeps grinding higher, for now.

• Break of the upper Bollinger band not sustained,
• Long tail on Tuesdays candle and break of the 50 DMA at close on Wednesday from overbought levels
• Thursday close below the 50 DMA and no direction from associated with volatile Oil price, triggered an entry 1.8562
• Daily Oil chart remains bullish positive for CAD
• Higher time frame Monthly chart remains bearish
• Target 1 – (Daily ATR) – 1.8420 also coincides with 20 DMA.
• Target 2 – (Recent low and close to lower Bollinger band) – 1.81300

 The recent down trend appears to be weakening so probability of Target 2 lower than normal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.