NZDUSD, Daily              

The NZD has had a great 2016 so far and continues to look strong against the AUD and USD. The NZDUSD traded as low as 0.6328 back in January and since has rallied to its recent high on September 7 at 0.7484, a move of some 18%.  The inevitable profit taking that was triggered by the Tweezer Top on September 8 and the subsequent move down to some long term support and Tweezer Bottom, tweaked my interest yesterday for a move to the LONG side.  The support area around the confluence of the 50 DMA, 38.2 Fibonacci level and the long term monthly channel suggest evidence of further upside potential.  The break and hold of the 20 DMA on yesterday’s weak US data confirmed the entry at 0.7280. Target 1, a little over the 14 Day ATR is at 0.7370 and Target 2 close to the recent high at 0.7450.

The Parabolic SAR remains negative as the pair trade below 0.7300 and any break of the 50 DMA and 38.2 Fibonacci level could move the pair lower. However, the RBNZ are expected to cut interest rates again before the year end following their 25 basis point cut (from 2.25% to 2.00%) in the Official Cash Rate last month. Governor Wheeler said at the time “…further policy easing may be required to ensure that inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” As the FED is widely expected to remain unmoved on rates next week the fundamentals remain positive for the Kiwi.

Chief Market Analyst

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NZDUSD, 5 min

I posted earlier today a brief intraday analysis in Facebook saying that I was seeing support in NZDUSD at 0.7080-0.7090 and that there’s an attempt to take the pair higher. My Targets were as follows: T1 at 0.7110 and T2 at 0.7150.

Price retraced to my support area quite a few times but eventually broke out and had a healthy run to my Target 1 at 0.7110. If you want to lear about trading and analysis, our free webinars are just the right place for you. Join now by clicking the link below. I really look forward to seeing you there!

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

NZDUSD, Daily

NZDUSD rallied strongly after the RBNZ didn’t cut the rates after the governor Wheeler had been suggesting there might be a need for further easing. He said, “Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” This took the pair beyond the 0.7054 resistance which is now likely to act as a support.

In in the daily picture NZDUSD is trading outside the upper Bollinger Bands and near a channel high which has already meant that the buyers find it difficult to take the pair higher. It has resulted in a shooting star candle in the daily timeframe and a potential roll over of the Stochastics oscillator. These are bearish signs and could lead to price drifting lower towards the 0.7054 support. However, the 0.7054 support is relatively near and is likely to put off the shorts at the current levels. This should lead the market to rally attempts from the supports.  The intraday support and resistance levels are at 0.7080 – 0.7090 and 0.7140 – 0.7150 while daily support and resistance levels are at 0.7054 and 0.7148.

I posted earlier today a brief intraday analysis in Facebook with long targets at 0.7110 and 0.7150. Price has since rallied almost to my T1 but retraced then back into the support with the upside momentum fading. Just at the time of writing there’s been some buying coming in (current price at 0.7096) with price creating higher lows in small time frame charts. If the support holds and NZDUSD moves to my T2 at 0.7050 the probabilities of market breaking higher will increase.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

NZDUSD, 240min

On Wednesday (April 20)  I wrote “The appreciation of the NZDUSD has been significant over the last few days and I can see some weakness if the 0.7000 level fails to hold. The 240 min chart shows the retrace from the upper Bollinger band overnight and a Target 1 area of 0.69500 (20 DMA) and possibly to Target 2 at 0.69038 (50 DMA)”

The 0.7000 did indeed fail to hold and the pair subsequently retraced to Target 1 and Target 2 for a net gain of 96.7 pips. The energy of the retrace has been as strong as the leg up so the potential reversal LONG trade was not triggered as the candle closed below the lower range of my potential buy zone.

Interestingly, ( I do use that word a lot) the longer term DAILY uptrend remains intact as the 20 DMA seems to be providing support and the pair remain in the upper half of the Bollinger band, let’s see how we finish today and the week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important financial aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

NZDUSD, 240min

The NZDUSD rallied strongly yesterday initially through the 0.70000 level and then higher to 0 .7050 area on the release of strong GDT data. GDT is the Global Dairy Trade auction of nine key dairy products. It’s very important for the NZ economy as rising diary product commodity prices is good for the countries trade balance and  export income.

Prices rose 3.8% in the latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction after a 2.1% gain previously. Although markets had been expecting prices to advance at the latest auction, the gain triggered a further advance for the New Zealand currency ahead of a key interest rate decision next week. After prices declined in the first four auctions of 2016, there have been gains in three of the last four releases which will provide some relief over short-term prospects for the industry. Despite the recent recovery, prices remain around 15% lower than the recent peak in September 2015 and over 50% lower than the prices prevailing in early 2014.

The appreciation of the NZD has been significant over the last few days and I can see some weakness if the 0.7000 level fails to hold. The 240 min chart shows the retrace from the upper Bollinger Band overnight and a Target 1 area of 0.6950 (20 DMA) and possibly to Target 2 at 0.6938 (50 DMA).

Alternatively, the higher time frames have strong weekly support and I would look to go LONG (reversal of my SHORT trade) between 0.6965 and 0.6936 with a Target 1 0.7050 and Target 2 0.72025.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.