USDJPY, Daily               

The U.S. durables report revealed lean September orders ex-transportation with a small drop in transportation orders and a big drop for defense, alongside divergent equipment data with shipments gains that lifted Q3 prospects slightly, but with orders weakness that slightly trimmed Q4. We also saw firm shipments data and lean inventories that left no impact on  3.3% Q3 GDP forecast. Expectations are for a 2.6% (was 2.9%) contraction rate for real equipment spending in tomorrow’s GDP report, after a 2.9% rate of decline in Q2. Also expect an $11 (was $12) bln Q3 inventory addition that leaves a $2 bln accumulation rate, following five prior consecutive inventory subtractions that culminated with a $9.5 bln liquidation rate in Q2 that was the first drop since 2011.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell 3k to 258k in the week ended October 22 from a revised 261k previously (was 260k). That brought the 4-week moving average up to 253.0k from 252.0k (revised from 251.75k). Continuing claims declined 15k to 2,039k in the week ended October 15 versus the prior 4k rise to 2,054k (revised from 2,057k). The BLS said there were no special factors affecting claims last week.

The USD reacted positively to this as USDJPY hit a three month high at 104.88, EURUSD 1.0918 and Cable continues to pivot around 1.2200 at 1.2215. Gold dipped too and trades under USD 1270.00.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, Daily               

The U.S. durables report revealed lean September orders ex-transportation with a small drop in transportation orders and a big drop for defense, alongside divergent equipment data with shipments gains that lifted Q3 prospects slightly, but with orders weakness that slightly trimmed Q4. We also saw firm shipments data and lean inventories that left no impact on  3.3% Q3 GDP forecast. Expectations are for a 2.6% (was 2.9%) contraction rate for real equipment spending in tomorrow’s GDP report, after a 2.9% rate of decline in Q2. Also expect an $11 (was $12) bln Q3 inventory addition that leaves a $2 bln accumulation rate, following five prior consecutive inventory subtractions that culminated with a $9.5 bln liquidation rate in Q2 that was the first drop since 2011.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell 3k to 258k in the week ended October 22 from a revised 261k previously (was 260k). That brought the 4-week moving average up to 253.0k from 252.0k (revised from 251.75k). Continuing claims declined 15k to 2,039k in the week ended October 15 versus the prior 4k rise to 2,054k (revised from 2,057k). The BLS said there were no special factors affecting claims last week.

The USD reacted positively to this as USDJPY hit a three month high at 104.88, EURUSD 1.0918 and Cable continues to pivot around 1.2200 at 1.2215. Gold dipped too and trades under USD 1270.00.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, 240 min

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Abenomics mandate got a boost today from the Upper House elections and yesterday’s visit to the BoJ by Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke. These events stirred up expectations for an aggressive expansion in monetary policy. These expectations were rewarded as Reuters now reports that Japanese PM Abe said on Monday that he will instruct Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara on Tuesday to start work on compiling a fiscal stimulus package, but did not mention how much the size of spending will be. Another factor is the recovery in risk appetite in global markets aided by the surprisingly quick selection of a new PM, and expectations for the BoE to cut rates on Thursday. This backdrop has eroded yen safe haven premium and given sterling a boost, the latter logging one-week highs versus both the dollar and euro.

The above news has driven USDJPY to test levels above a resistance at 103.40. These levels weren’t sustained however and the pair dropped below the resistance. There is however, a minor support at 102.88 which has been attracting buyers this morning this suggests that the pair will try to challenge today’s high of 103.62 again. The next intraday support can be found at 102.40. If the pair fails to close the current 4h candle above 103.30 a bearish shooting star will be created. The candle closes at 09:00 am GMT. This would be a bearish sign and could bring USDJPY lower to test the 102.40 support. Whether the market then could react lower towards the 50 period SMA that coincides with 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level would need to be analysed after we’ve seen how it trades after possibly touching 102.40 support.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

USDJPY, Daily         

The Japanese Yen

The fallout on Friday from a Brexit vote would reverberate around all financial markets, from Commodities to Stocks to Bonds and of course Currencies.  There would be winners and loser’s huge volatility and certain uncertainty. The vote is far too close to call but my view remains (no pun intended) that the UK population, with 10-11% of the electorate still undecided, will decide its “better the devil you know” and vote to Remain in the EU.

One day to go now and the polls continue to point to a too-close-to-call outcome. The FT’s poll tracker is showing Leave with 45% support and Remain with 44% support, with the former gaining one percentage point at the latest update. UK bookmaker Ladbrokes continues to show an implied probability of the UK remaining in the EU of 76%, unchanged from yesterday and showing a much more confident view than polls would suggest on the idea that the status quo option in referendums tends to have the advantage. While the possible market reactions on Friday are clinically polarized — the one being a sterling and euro risk-on trade and the other being a sterling and euro negative risk-on trade — there is also a likelihood of protracted uncertainty if the Remain side win by only a narrow margin. This would embolden Brexiters, embittered after the loss, to carry on the fight. This could in turn maintain longer-term uncertainties for sterling markets.

All that said the greatest beneficiary of a Brexit is the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and GOLD. Of the three the YEN would appreciate furthest even with BOJ intervention.  USDJPY 101.90 – 100.90 remains a possible intervention zone prior to the key psychological 100.00. Further down 98.20 and even 95.00 are not unrealistic. In an uncertain post Brexit world risk off would prevail for some considerable time.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, Daily        

The USDJPY Daily trade I identified on Monday (June 13^th) was triggered on the close of the Daily candle that night with the Target 1 realised yesterday (June 15) for a 75 pip gain. This was prior to the huge move we have seen following the FOMC and BOJ announcements and press conferences overnight where we now see the pair sub 104.00 (another 150 pips further down).

It is also a reminder to “trade what you see and not what you think”. One of the many mind games that lead to successful trading is to not worry about  “what might have been” or how many pips you would have made if you’d “just left the trade on that little bit longer”.  That nagging little inner voice will ultimately detract from your success. The comfort of trading from completed candles and completing analysis before the event is that you set your entries and targets and let the market come to you. You do not need to “chase” trades or go “trade hunting.”

 

Trading on the Daily timeframe allows for Target and Entry levels to be set without the “noise” of the intra-day moves, and although I have “missed” the larger moves trading this way, the benefit is that you do not enter a market too soon and you can trade with much less stress. Patience is a skill that all successful traders practice very time they open a trade.

The strength of the yen and weakness of sterling has also seen the GBPJPY 148.80 Monthly support I identified on Monday to be breached this morning, a 100+ pip move. Next down levels remain 145.15 and the 2013 low of 140.20.  Brexit and its implications continue to dominate markets and with polling day less than a week away uncertainty continues to rise as quickly as the YEN and the price of GOLD.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, Daily        

USDJPY, had been heading south all day on yen outperformance, logging a one-month low at 106.25. Japanese core machinery orders dove 11.0% m/m in April, well off the median for a 2.3% drop and the biggest monthly dive in almost two years. The data had little bearing on the yen, however, which has been buoyed by a risk-off backdrop. Sharp losses were seen in EUR-JPY, which fell into 39-month terrain. USDJPY has since recovered a little on the publication of US initial jobless claims and currently trades at 106.60.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 4 fell 4k to 264k, following an unchanged dip to 268k (revised from 267k) for the week of May 28. It’s the lowest level since April 23, and leaves the 4-week moving average at 269.5k versus 277k (revised from 276.75k). Continuing claims dropped 77k to 2,095k for the May 28 week after rising 12k to 2,172. The BLS said there were no special factors impacting claims last week.

The Daily chart has support at 106.25 which we touched earlier today and 105.50. Resistance for the pair sits at 107.90 and 109.20.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, Daily       

US nonfarm payrolls increased only 38k in May following a 123k increase in April (revised down from 160k) and a 186k jump in March (revised from 208k), for a net -59k revision. The gain last month was the smallest since September 2010. But, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% from 5.0%, the lowest since November 2007. The labor force plunged 458k after April’s 362k drop, while household employment bounced 26k from -316k. The labor force participation rate slid to 62.6% versus 62.8% previously. Earnings were up 0.2% compared to the prior 0.4% gain (revised from 0.3%). The workweek was flat at 34.4 (April was nudged down from 34.5). Private payrolls increased 25k, with the goods producing sector seeing a 36k drop, while construction fell 15k, with manufacturing down 10k. Service sector jobs increased 61k, led by a 67k jump in education/health. Government added 13k. Though the data is very noisy, in part due to the Verizon strike, it will be difficult for the FOMC to make a tightening case with these numbers.

The dollar fell sharply following the big NFP miss, which came in at roughly 1/4 of expectations. Earnings and average workweek data were in-line with forecasts. EURUSD rallied over 100 points to 1.1270 from 1.1160, as USDJPY collapsed to nearly one-month lows of 107.79 from 108.85. Equity futures have turned marginal gains into moderate losses, while yields moved significantly lower.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, H4     

USDJPY rallied to a one-month peak of 111.32, partly reflecting broader dollar gains and partly broader yen weakness.  This hit my target from Thursday of 110.60 for a net gain of 55.7 pips. “The recovery this morning (May 26), back again over 110.00, suggests that it was a big seller of the JPY (probably in Asia) and they were filled over night and that last Friday’s 110.60 area is again in reach. The risk reward on the trade this morning is acceptable, yesterday the target was too close to justify the trade”.   

The gains in the U.S. currency reflect the rekindling of expectations in Fed tightening expectations; while, despite this, generally firmer stock markets in Asia have encouraged yen selling. The consensus view is that the BoJ will also expand monetary policy by July. The Apr-25 peak at 111.89 provides the next upside waypoint (Target 2) for USDJPY. Japanese retail sales data today fell 0.8% y/y in April after -1.0% in March. This was slightly above the median forecast for a 1.2% y/y contraction. While EURJPY rose to 10-day highs EURUSD ebbed to an 11-week low of 1.1098. The Mar-16 low at 1.1057 provides the next downside focal point. AUD-USD dipped to a six-day low, nearing three-month lows, while the NZDUSD traded into two-month low terrain.  

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, H4     

Yesterday (May 25) I posted a news report on the US Markit Services PMI being a little softer than expected but that the USD had shrugged that news off and appeared to be comfortably above the 110 level. It also looked that sentiment was taking the USD higher over the coming hours as the US stock markets had had a great Tuesday and Wednesday was looking to support the USD too. The chart I posted was the USDJPY, H4 below, support around the109.77 level and Fridays high at 110.60 area.

Today (May 26)  it was interesting to see such a rapid spike and move down overnight with nothing or little to explain it – see the TOP chart above. The recovery this morning, back again over 110.00, suggests that it was a big seller of the JPY (probably in Asia) and they were filled over night and that last Friday’s 110.60 area is again in reach. The risk reward on the trade today is acceptable, yesterday the target was too close to justify the entry.

However, a break and breach below 109.20 would suggest more YEN strength into next week as confirmed by the Daily chart below.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY, H4     

US Markit reported its flash services PMI stumbled to 51.2 in May after increasing to 52.8 in April from 51.3 in March. The index has been correcting from the February drop to 49.7, but this slowing in activity is a bit of a disappointment. It was 56.2 a year ago. Employment slid to 51.8 from 53.1 from 54.0 in March, and is the lowest print since December 2014. Prices charged did rise, however, to the highest since November 2015. The flash composite index dropped to 50.8 from last month’s 52.4 and compares to 51.3 in March. The employment component softened to 51.7 from 52.6, and is the lowest since April 2014. But as with the services index, the price component rose and hit its highest since July 2015. USDJPY has peaked at 110.41, within sight of Friday’s 110.61three-week high. Support has come from a second session of risk-on conditions, with Wall Street set to add to Tuesday’s sharp gains. Improved odds for a June Fed rate hike has been dollar friendly more broadly, even with these softer than expected Markit numbers.