Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: It will be a busy week ahead in the US and upcoming data could have significant implications for the Fed and the policy outlook. The March jobs report highlights and expectations points to a 200k rise, with a steady 4.9% unemployment rate. The economic calendar kicks off with personal income report (Monday), seen rising a mild 0.1% in February vs 0.5% in January; PCE prices may sink 0.2% on the month. The advance trade deficit may hold steady near -$62.6 bln in February, while NAR pending home sales are expected to rise to 106.5 in February from 106.0 and the Dallas Fed index may rebound to -20 for March from -31.8. The Case-Shiller report on home price index (Tuesday) may tick down to 182.9 in January from 182.8. Also, consumer confidence is forecast to rise to 93.0 in March (median 93.7) vs 92.2, despite headwinds from market and energy price volatility. MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey set to rise 180k in March (median 190k) vs 214k. EIA energy inventories rose sharply with API last week and will be closely monitored again after denting crude oil. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated to rise 13k to 278k, while Chicago PMI may bounce to 49.0 in March (median 49.5) vs 47.6. In addition to the jobs report (Friday), construction spending is seen flat in February, final Michigan sentiment is due for March, ISM may nudge up to 50.0 in March (median 50.6) vs 49.5 and auto sales are on tap over the course of the session.

• Canada:  January GDP report (Thursday) takes top billing this week, with growth expected to expand 0.2% in January compared to December, extending the run of monthly gains to four straight. GDP grew 0.2% in December after an 0.3% gain in November and 0.1% rise in October. A firm showing for January GDP would put real Q1 GDP on track. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is seen dipping 0.1% m/m in February on a not seasonally adjusted basis following the 0.5% bounce in January. The raw materials price index is projected to fall 0.5% on a not seasonally adjusted basis after the 0.4% decline in January. January average weekly earnings (Thursday) are anticipated to gain 0.3% m/m following the 0.9% surge in December. The earnings figures are part of the establishment survey, which also contains an employment estimate. Employment grew 36.1k in December after the 13.0k rise in November. The much more timely labour force survey saw a 2.3k drop in February and 5.7k dip in January after the 22.8k gain in December, suggestive of a dip in the establishment survey’s employment measure during January.

• Europe: This week’s data releases focus on preliminary inflation numbers for March. The German HICP rate (Wednesday) is expected to rise to -0.1% y/y (median same) from -0.2% y/y, and an increase in the French HICP rate (Thursday) to 0.0% y/y (med same) from -0.1% y/y, which should see the overall Eurozone number (Thursday), rising to -0.1% y/y (med same) from -0.2%. Core inflation is also expected to tick marginally higher. The calendar also has the last key confidence numbers for March – the EU Commission’s ESI Economic Sentiment Indicator (Wednesday), which after the better than expected PMI and IFO readings is seen rising to 103.9 (med 103.5) from 103.8. PMI readings still continue to point to modest expansion in overall Eurozone economic activity and this is also underpinning labour markets, although the pace of the decline is starting to wane. For now though the improving trend continues and we expect a renewed dip in the German (sa) jobless number of -3K (med -5K) in March, which should leave the jobless rate steady at a very low 6.2%. The overall Eurozone rate for February meanwhile is seen falling to 10.2% (med same) from 10.3%.

• UK: This week brings March Gfk consumer sentiment (Wednesday), the third and final estimate of Q4 GDP (Thursday), Q4 current account data (Thursday), monthly BoE lending data (also Thursday), and the March Markit manufacturing PMI survey (Friday). Consumer sentiment is expected to ebb to -1 from 0 (median same), reflecting a recent ebb in economic momentum and sudden rise in Brexit risk. Q4 GDP is expected to come in unrevised at 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y (median same). February lending data is expected to show mortgage approvals dip to 73.5k from 74.6k, and consumer lending dipping to GBP 1.3 bln after a strong GBP 1.6 bln reading in the month prior. The manufacturing PMI release is expected at 51.2, which would signal a steadying in activity after the sharp drop in a 50.8 cycle low in the month before.

• CHINA:  February leading indicators are due during the week.

• JAPAN: Most of the data comes on Tuesday, with February unemployment expected steady at 3.2%.  February personal income is due, along with February PCE, which likely fell 2.0% y/y as compared to January’s -3.1% reading. February retail sales are forecast to have risen 1.5% y/y from the prior 0.9% increase for large retailers, and up 0.3% from -0.1% for total sales. Wednesday brings preliminary February industrial production, where we expect a 5.0% y/y drop, versus the 3.7% gain in January. February housing starts (Thursday) are penciled in at -3.0% y/y from the 0.2% January increase. February construction orders are also due Thursday. On Friday, the March Tankan index is estimated to have slipped to 8 from 12 for large manufacturers, and 23 from 25 for large non-manufacturers.

• AUSTRALIA: Economic data is lacking in top tier releases, although private sector credit for February (Thursday) is scheduled.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: economic data will resume after today’s Presidents Day holiday, starting with the Empire State index (Tuesday) forecast rebound to -12.0 in February (median -10.0) from -19.4 in January. The NAHB housing market index is also set to tick up to 61 in February from 60, while the Treasury International Capital (TIC) flow release is due late in the session. The MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) is on tap and headline PPI should come in tame at -0.1% (median -0.2%) vs -0.2%, or +0.1% for core vs +0.2%. Housing starts are expected to increase 1.8% to a 1,170k unit pace in January, while permits may rise to 1,210k. Industrial production is forecast to be flat for January (median 0.3%) vs -0.4% in December, while capacity use may dip to 76.4% (median 76.6%) from 76.5%. FOMC minutes to the January meeting (Wednesday) aren’t likely to get the usual scrutiny they would otherwise receive, primarily since Chair Yellen’s testimony last week provided a more up-to-date dovish outline of Fed thinking. The Philly Fed index is set to remain damp (Thursday) at -3.0 in February (median -2.8) vs -3.5, while initial jobless claims may tick up 5k to 274k and leading indicators rise 0.2% (median -0.2%) vs -0.2. CPI rounds out the week on its lonesome (Friday), set to sink 0.1% headline and rise 0.1% core. Fedspeakers pile up starting this week (Tuesday) with Philly Fed’s Harker will discuss the economic outlook at the University of Delaware. Minneapolis Fed president Kashkari will analyze the lessons of the financial crisis at a Brookings event. Note, Kashkari was instrumental in implementing the TARP program while at the Treasury Department during the crisis, which could make this speech especially informative. Boston Fed dove Rosengren will mull the economic outlook as well. St. Louis Fed dove Bullard (Wednesday) will discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook at a Fed forecast dinner. SF Fed dove Williams will take a look at the economic outlook (Thursday) at a town hall meeting in L.A. Wrapping it all up will be Cleveland Fed hawk Mester (Friday), who will mull the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center.

• Canada: a holiday-truncated calendar has a steady schedule of key economic reports. Markets are closed today for Family Day. Manufacturing (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.5% m/m in December after the 1.0% bounce in November. Wholesale shipments (Thursday) are seen growing 0.2% m/m in December after the 1.8% rise in November. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to fall 1.0% m/m in December after the 1.7% surge in November. Sales excluding the autos aggregate are projected to fall 0.7% following the 1.1% gain in November. Total CPI (Friday) is expected to pick-up to a 1.7% y/y rate in January from the 1.6% clip in December. The BoC’s core CPI is seen growing at a 1.9% y/y pace in January, matching the 1.9% in December. Existing home sale for January are due on Tuesday. There is nothing from the BoC this week. 

• Europe: ECB’s Draghi speaks today. Market volatility has increased, with large swings in peripheral stock and bond markets reminding the ECB that especially peripherals remain vulnerable and that Draghi’s promise has not solved the Eurozone’s fundamental problems. Draghi will have to pull quite a rabbit out of his hat in March and will have a first chance to try and placate investors on Monday, when he speaks at a European Parliament Committee. Data releases this week are unlikely to take any pressure off the ECB. The focus is on German ZEW Investor Sentiment (Tuesday), which we expect to fall into negative territory, thus highlighting that pessimists now outnumber optimists. We are looking for a sharp drop to -0.5% from 10.2 in January, a decline that will only add to mounting growth concerns. Similarly Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Friday) is seen falling further into negative territory at -6.5, despite the fact that at least so far the labour market continues to improve and reflecting mainly concerns about the general economic outlook. The Eurozone also has trade data today and BoP and Current Account data on Thursday, both for December. With Q4 GDP numbers already released the numbers are too backward looking to change the outlook and will bring mainly background information. German releases producer price inflation for January and France has the final reading of January inflation numbers, which are not expected to hold any surprise. 

• United Kingdom: The calendar this week brings January inflation data (Tuesday), labour market numbers covering December and January (Wednesday), and retail sales (Thursday). Monthly government borrowing numbers are also (Friday). Last week brought unambiguously weak UK production data, while we expect this week’s releases to be a mixed bag, with unemployment expected to hit a new cycle low of 5.0%, retail sales expected to be perky, but inflation likely to remain benign, which, along with the backdrop of global market turmoil, should leave the BoE a no-hike-for-the-foreseeable policy standing. Markets have now priced out any chance of the BoE hiking rates before next year following last week’s publication of the BoE’s quarterly Inflation Report, which detailed lower growth and inflation projections.

• China: In China, the markets reopen after the week long holidays and will have a lot of catching up to do. As for data, January Trade Balance numbers came in at $63.3B (previous $60.9B). January CPI and PPI (Thursday) are forecast at 1.7% y/y from 1.6%, and -5.5% y/y from -5.9%, respectively.

• Japan: the December tertiary industry index (today) improved slightly to -0.6% in December (November: -0.9%). Revised December industrial production deteriorated further to -1.9 YoY from the previous number of -1.6%, while Q4 1st preliminary GDP (Tuesday) is forecast at -2.0%, from the previous 1.0%. December machine orders are seen rebounding 3.0% m/m, from the 14.4% fall previously. A JPY 500 bln deficit is expected for the January trade report (Thursday). The December all-industry index (Friday) is penciled in at -0.5% m/m from -1.0% previously.

• Australia: calendar is highlighted by the January employment report (Thursday), expected to show a 5.0k gain in jobs following the 1.0k dip in December. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8% in January, identical to the 5.8% in December. The minutes to the RBA’s February meeting will be released on Tuesday. The bank held rates steady at 2.00%, as expected, but opened the door wide to another rate cut if needed to support domestic demand. Assistant Governor (Financial System) Malcolm Edey speaks to the Australian Shareholders Association (ASA) Investor Forum in Sydney (Thursday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• Europe: Markets are returning from the holiday period to a very full data calendar this week. The calendar starts with the final readings of Eurozone December PMI, with the manufacturing number (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 53.1, and the services reading (Wednesday) at 53.9, which should leave the composite at 54.0. Data continues to point to ongoing expansion, not just across both sectors, but in all four major Eurozone economies, with France continuing to trail behind. The Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Thursday) also remains at high levels and the December number is seen little changed at a robust 106.0 (median same), down from 106.1 in the previous month.

• United States: The main event this week is the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report due out on Friday. The U.S. economic calendar in the first week of 2016 is rather full and starts off with the Markit manufacturing PMI (Monday), along with December ISM forecast to tick up to 49.5 (median 49.0) from 48.6 previously, while construction spending is set to increase 0.5% for November (median 0.5%) vs 1.0%. Vehicle sales roll out (Tuesday) and are expected to edge up 0.3% to an 18.1 mln unit pace for December. Mid-week (Wednesday) MBA mortgage applications after the holiday break last week, followed by the ADP employment survey seen rising 190k in December vs 217k. The trade deficit is forecast relatively steady at -$44 bln in November, with ISM Non-Manufacturing index set to rise marginally to 56.0 in December from 55.9 and factory goods order seen unchanged in November vs +1.4%. EIA energy inventories are also on tap. Initial jobless claims provide the last clue (Thursday) ahead of payrolls, forecast to rise 3k to 270k. Also out after payrolls (Friday) are the wholesale trade and consumer credit.

• Canada: The Canadian calendar is very busy next this week, with November IPPI, November Trade, December Ivey PMI and December employment and a speech from Governor Poloz. Employment (Friday) is the top report this week, with jobs expected to improve 10.0k in December after the 35.7k drop in November. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.1%. The trade report (Wednesday) takes nearly equal billing with employment this week, and analyst expect a narrowing in the deficit to -C$2.6 bln in November from -C$2 .8 bln in October. The key will be exports, which fell 1.8% m/m in October to the disadvantage of the BoC outlook for export driven growth. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is seen falling 0.3% m/m in November after the 0.5% drop in October. The Ivey PMI (Thursday) is projected to drop to a seasonally adjusted 55.0 in December from 63.6 in November, in a largely seasonal swing as Ivey continues to refine the seasonal adjustment process. Building permits (Friday) are expected to fall 2.0% m/m in November after the 9.1% surge in October.

• Japan: The December auto sales are due Tuesday, followed by November preliminary leading and coincident indices on Friday, which are seen down 0.5% m/m from up 1.8% for the former, and down 0.7% m/m from up1.5% for the latter.

• China: December Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Monday) dropped from 48.9 to 48.2 December services PMI (Wednesday) is forecast at 51.0 from 51.2. The December trade surplus (Friday) is expected to narrow to $50 bln from $54.1 bln in November. December CPI and PPI (Saturday) are penciled in at 1.6% y/y from 1.5%, and -5.7% y/y from -5.9%, respectively.

• Australia: The trade deficit (Thursday) is seen improving to -A$3.0 bln in November from -A$3.3 bln in October. Building approvals (Thursday) are expected to drop 3.5% m/m in November after the 3.9% bounce in October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to expand 0.5% m/m in November, matching the gain in October. The RBA takes its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the New Year. As expected data this week would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting.

• United Kingdom: The December version of the Markit manufacturing PMI survey and the BoE’s monthly report on lending activity (both Monday). The manufacturing report is expected to inch higher, to a 53.0 headline reading (median 52.8) after the 52.7 outcome in November. The sector has been the weak link in the UK’s economic recovery, reflected by the low 50s PMI readings that indicate modest expansion. The BoE lending report should see consumer credit come in at a near base trend reading of 1.3 bln (median same) and mortgage approvals rise to 70.0 (median 69.8) from 69.6. The December construction and services PMI (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively) are expected at 56.0 and 55.6, up from 55.7 in the case of the former and up from 55.9 in the case of the latter. November trade data rounds out the week (Friday ), which is expected to show the goods deficit shrink to GBP 10.b bln and the overall deficit drop to GBP 2.7 bln.

• Switzerland: The Swiss calendar this week features December data on manufacturing (Monday), labor (Friday) and inflation (also Friday). The SVME manufacturing PMI is expected to lift back above 50.1 (median same) from 49.7. The unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 3.4%. Headline CPI is expected to lift to -1.2% (median same) from -1.4%. Further rises in CPI are likely once the base effect impact of last January’s sudden appreciation of the franc (when the SNB abandoned its peg against the euro) roll out of y/y data.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

Trading volumes should remain in holiday trading mode for Boxing Day (U.K. Bank Holiday today), and New Year’s market closures on Friday.

• United States: The U.S. economic calendar this week includes the Advance November trade report on goods (Tuesday), which will provide key insight for the trade report that’s out on January 6. Analyst are forecasting a widening in the deficit to -$607 bln, from -$58.4 bln previously. Exports are forecast remaining weak given the slowdown in global activity in and the strength in the USD .Consumer confidence for December (Tuesday) is seen jumping to 94.0 after sliding 8.7 points to 90.4 in November, with the latter the weakest print since September 2014. The December Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (Monday) is estimated falling back to -8.0 from -4.9, reflecti ng the ongoing oil recession. The index has been in negative territory for 11 straight months. On the other hand, the December Chicago PMI (Thursday) should bounce back to 51.0 after diving 7.5 points to 48.7 in November. The October Case Shiller home price index (Tuesday) is forecast falling back to 182.4 from 182.9. It’s been on a rising trend since the start of the year. Weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and November pending home sales report (Wednesday) round out the short holiday week. The first trading week of 2016 will be lively with the December jobs report, various ISMs, and vehicle sales. But with the Fed out of the way and no additional rate action anticipated until March at the earliest, the data won’t impact as usual. There are no Fed speakers this week. The next Fed meeting is not until January 26, 27. The FOMC is widely expected to pause to monitor the effects of its December hike.

• Canada: The calendar is uneventful for the final week of 2015, with nothing on the economic data scheduled and a blank schedule for the Bank of Canada. Markets are closed on Monday (Dec 28) for boxing day and also shut on Friday for New Year’s Day. The next top tier event from the Bank of Canada is a speech from Governor Poloz on January 7th. Moreover, the calendar is very busy next week, with November IPPI, November Trade, December Ivey PMI and December employment scheduled for release.

• Japan: November industrial production (Monday) is expected unchanged at 1.4% y/y. November retail sales (Monday) are seen up 2.5% y/y from the 2.9% October outcome for large retailers, and up 1.5% y/y from 1.8% in total.

• China: November leading indicators are due early in the week. The official manufacturing PMI is slated for Friday. It’s been in contractionary territory below 50 since August, highlighting the slowing in the sector.

• Europe: Trade will be shortened in another holiday week with Germany already effectively closing down on New Year’s eve on Thursday. The only data release of note is Eurozone M3, which long since has been demoted in the ECB’s monetary policy setting considerations. Analyst are looking for a slight deceleration in the annual rate to 5.1% y/y (med same) from 5.3% y/y, but the focus will once again be on the counterparts and credit growth. This seems to be slowly picking up and in many cases, weak lending growth to companies is as much a matter of a lack of demand than a reflection of credit constraints. Even in Germany, where companies are experiencing the least problems obtaining credit, demand has been low, as the manufacturing sector is happy to use existing capacity to fulfill orders, rather than embarking on ambitious investment projects. The calendar also has Italian producer price inflation for November and an Italian bond sale on Wednesday, but trading is likely to be very quiet between the holidays.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

This is a shortened trade week since Friday is a Bank Holiday for the major Central banks with U.S. and European markets closed on Friday.

• Europe: The European economic calendar will remain light as we head into the end of the year and with the lack of E.U. data we would expect for the EURUSD pair to trade within a range in the wake of the risk events from the U.S. Fed and the ECB are now out of the way. German markets will already be closing down for Christmas Eve on Thursday and all markets will be closed for Christmas Day Friday. The calendar is quiet, with only German and Eurozone consumer confidence numbers of note (Monday, Tuesday, respectively), which are expected to remain for the most part stable. The final reading of French Q3 GDP (Wednesday). French consumer spending also on (Wednesday) is expected to rebound from the marked dip in October and rise 0.6% m/m in November.

• United States: The U.S. will still have several more economic data releases until the end of the year, starting with the Chicago Fed National Activity index (Monday), this will be followed by the third update on Q3 GDP (Tuesday) forecast to be revised down to 1.8% from 2.1% originally and 3.9% in Q2. FHFA home prices may tick up to 227.0 in October from 226.5, while existing home sales may run 0.7% higher to a 5.40 mln unit pace in November. The Richmond Fed index is set to rise to -1 in December vs -3 previously. The MBA mortgage application report is due (Wednesday) and could be impacted by the advent of the Fed decision midweek. Durable goods orders are expected to retreat 1.5% in November (median -0.7%) after a 3.0% gain in October, while personal income and spending may rise 0.3% in November. Final Michigan sentiment should be nudged up to 92.0 in December from 91.8 initially and new home sales are forecast to rise 2.0% in November to a 505k unit pace from 495k. Initial jobless claims may tick up 1k (Thursday) to a 272k level.

• Canada: A holiday shortened week will be highlighted by October GDP (Wednesday) , Retail sales also (Wednesday) are expected to show an 0.8% m/m gain in October following the 0.5% drop in September while the ex-autos aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after a 0.5% decline. Average weekly earnings (Tuesday) are seen rising 0.3% m/m in October after the 1.0% surge in September. Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz will deliver a presentation on the global economy and Canadian monetary policy at the Canada’s Finance Ministers meeting in Ottawa on Sunday and Monday (Dec 20 and 21). The next top tier event from the bank is a speech from Governor Poloz on January 7th.

• United Kingdom: The markets are anticipating that the UK’s version of rate liftoff will be around six months after the U.S., with a hike seen in the middle of 2016. This week the U.K. has on tab the; CBI distributive sales survey for December (Monday) where analyst expect a solid rebound to a +20 reading in headline realized sales (median +21), up from +7 in November. Growth in real household incomes, despite recent abatement in nominal growth, has been underpinning consumption. Analyst anticipate the December reading of the Gfk consumer confidence survey (Tuesday) to come in unchanged at +1 (median same). Monthly government borrowing data are also due (also Tuesday), as is the final release of Q3 GDP (Wednesday), which analyst expect to remain unchanged at 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y. Q3 current account data (also due Wednesday) is expected to reveal a deficit of GBP 21.5 bln, mostly reflecting the UK’s trade deficit and net negative investment returns.

• Switzerland: The Swiss calendar is light, featuring trade data (Tuesday) the December KOF leading indicator (Wednesday), both of which should highlight that the Swiss economy continues to manage well in the face of Eurozone uncertainties and a strong franc.

• Japan: October all-industry index (Monday), which is expected to rebound 0.5% m/m from the -0.2% outcome in September. Activity slows until the end of the week with the minutes to the November 18, 19th BoJ meeting (Thursday). Friday’s slate is heavy. November national CPI is seen steady at 0.3% y/y on an overall basis, and accelerating to 0.1% y/y clip from the prior -0.1% on a core basis. December headline Tokyo CPI is expected to slow to unchanged y/y from 0.2% previously, while core should be steady at unchanged y/y. November unemployment is forecast steady at 3.1%, with the job offers/seekers ratio holding at 1.24. November personal income likely dipped to 2.0% y/y from 2.6%, while PCE is seen contracting further to -2.5% y/y from -2.4% in October. November services PPI should ease to 0.1% y/y from 0.5%.

• Australia: The AUD calendar is empty this week, and remains without of top tier data until the first week of January. Markets will be closed in Australia on Friday for the Christmas holiday, with many remaining shut through Monday. The RBA takes its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the New Year.

• New Zealand: The NZD calendar has November trade (Wednesday), expected to reveal an improvement in the trade deficit to -NZ$800 mln from the -NZ$963 mln deficit in October. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week following the well-anticipated 25 basis point cut earlier this month that left the official cash rate at 2.50%. The bank’s next meeting is on January 28th, and we project no change in the current policy setting.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: The US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday will see activity condensed into the first three days of the week. While the data calendar is highlighted with several important releases, including revised GDP, personal income, consumption, durable orders, housing stats, and consumer confidence, none are crucial enough to materially alter expectations for a Fed rate liftoff. October existing home sales (today) are expected to fall 1.8% to a 5.45 mln unit rate, unwinding some of the 4.7% rebound to 5.550 mln in September following the 5.0% drop to 5.300 mln in August. Q3 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to be revised higher to a 2.1% clip in the second release, from the disappointing 1.5% pace seen in the Advance report. However that is still considerably slower than Q2′s 3.9% rate. Global growth remains a major uncertainty, and especially in Asia. Consumer confidence for November (Tuesday) is seen rising to 98.5 after falling 5 points to 97.6 in October. Personal income and consumption figures for October (Wednesday) should help fine tune Q4 GDP forecast too. We’re forecasting gains of 0.4% for each and the strength from the employment report suggests upside risks. New home sales (Wednesday) are forecast bouncing 2.6% to a 480k pace in October after diving 11.5% in September to 468k. The housing sector remains choppy and generally disappointing. October durable goods orders (Wednesday) should edge up 0.5%, hardly correcting from the cumulative 4.2% decline from August and September, though weakness was mostly led by transportation.

• Canada: Canada’s economic calendar is somewhat thin this week (Friday), with the industrial product price index (IPPI) the only top tier report. We expect October IPPI to fall 0.5% (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September as lower gasoline prices, a firm loonie and weaker commodity prices weigh on industrial prices. The establishment employment survey (Thursday) will provide earnings and employment figures for September. The results are fairly dated, with the timely labour force survey showing a 44.4k surge in October jobs and a dip in the unemployment rate to 7.0% from 7.1%. Nevertheless, the employment figures from the establishment survey are of interest, as is the earnings figure. We expect average weekly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.7% drop in August. Corporate profits for Q3 (Thursday) are also due out from Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson (Tuesday) conducts a presentation at the University of Regina Regina, SK. The appearance, which is part of the Bank’s regional outreach program, is the final scheduled event before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement on December 2. We expect no change to the current 0.50% policy rate or to the growth and inflation outlook presented in October.

• Europe: Preliminary November PMI readings (today) kicked off the week and the French PMI’s disappointed with the manufacturing reading managed to carve out a slight gain – to 50.8 from 50.6, but the services reading dropped sharply to 51.3 from 52.7, which saw the composite falling to 51.3 from 52.6 in October. The German PMI’s came in better than expectations and above the previous month’s figures: services 55.6 vs. median of 54.3, manufacturing 52.6 vs. median of 56 and composite 54.9 vs. median of 54. The German Ifo Business Climate index (Tuesday) is seen little changed at expected 108.3 (med 108.1), versus 108.2 in October. France and Italy also release November confidence data and the week ends with the release of the European Commission’s ESI Economic Confidence reading on Friday, where we look for a marginal improvement to 106.0 (median same) from 105.9 in October. The preliminary consumer confidence reading already surprised on the upside, but again, in the current climate, even better than expected numbers are unlikely to change Draghi’s course and weaker readings will only add to the doves’ arguments. The second release of German Q3 GDP is expected to confirm the 0.3% q/q growth rate reported with the initial release, leaving the focus on the breakdown, which will almost certainly show that for once German growth is boosted by consumption and domestic demand rather than net exports. Indeed, across the Eurozone, consumers are propping up the economy and despite the ECB’s deflation warnings, there is no sign that purchases are being postponed in anticipation of price cuts, on the contrary.

• United Kingdom: The latest CBI distributive sales survey (Tuesday), BBA mortgage approvals (Wednesday), and Gfk consumer confidence and the second estimate for Q3 GDP (both Friday). We forecast the CBI retail survey showing an improvement in the headline realized sales balance for November, to +24 (median +25) from October’s +19 reading. Strong rises in real average household incomes and record levels of employment have and should continue to underpin the sector. BBA mortgage approvals for October should recover some of the unexpected dip seen in September data, to 44.5. We expect a reading of 45.5, which would still be short of the cycle peak seen in August, at 46.7. As for the Gfk consumer confidence survey, we anticipate an unchanged reading of +2 (median same). The second estimate Q3 GDP report is widely expected to show +0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y growth, unchanged from the preliminary readings.

• China: no data releases this week.

• Australia: RBA Governor Stevens (Tuesday) speaks at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks at the FX Week Europe conference in London (Wednesday). Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the Q3 private capital expenditures survey (Thursday), expected to reveal a repeat 4.0% drop (q/q, sa) after the 4.0% pull-back in Q2 as ongoing uncertainty over Australia’s growth prospects maintains caution on the part of firms.

• Japan: Japanese markets are closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving Day. The release schedule gets underway Wednesday with October services PPI, expected to dip to a 0.5% y/y pace versus the 0.6% outcome previously. Revised September leading and coincident indices (Wednesday) are seen unchanged from preliminary readings of -2.1% m/m and -0.3% m/m, respectively. CPI data (Friday) should show the October national headline inching up to a 0.1% y/y pace versus unchanged. The core reading is expected to fall to -0.2% y/y from the prior -0.1% outcome. November Tokyo headline is forecast unchanged at 0.1% y/y, with core seen steady at -0.2% y/y. October unemployment (Friday) will likely reveal an unchanged 3.4% rate, while the job offers/seekers ratio is seen steady at 1.24.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: The U.S. economic calendar on tap this week includes, housing reports, inflation, Empire , Philly Fed updates, and the FOMC minutes from the October 27-28 meeting that may add confusion to the outlook for a December tightening. The Empire State index today is forecast to rebound to -7.0 in November (median -6.0) from -11.4 in October. This will be followed (Tuesday) by CPI seen rising a tame 0.1% for both headline and core (median 0.2% for both). Industrial production is projected to be unchanged in October (median 0.1%), while capacity use slows to 77.4% and the NAHB housing market index may hold steady at 64 in November. The MBA mortgage market index (Wednesday) is due, along with October housing starts forecast to sink 2.2% to a 1,180k unit pace following the 6.5% jump in September, while permits are seen rising to 1,140k from 1,105k. The week wraps up (Thursday) with initial jobless claims set to sink 9k to 267k, while the Philly Fed index may bounce to 0.0 in November from -4.5 and October leading indicators are expected to rise 0.1% (median 0.4%) vs -0.2 %.

• Canada: A full calendar this week, with manufacturing, wholesale and retail shipments due alongside CPI. Manufacturing shipments (Monday) are expected to rise 0.5% m/m in September after the 1.5% drop in August. Wholesale shipments (Thursday) are seen expanding 0.3% m/m in September following the 0.1% dip in August. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.3% m/m in September after the 0.5% gain in August, while the ex-autos sales aggregate dips 0.1% m/m versus the flat reading in August. CPI is expected to slow to a 0.9% y/y pace in October following the 1.0% y/y growth rate in September as lower gasoline prices exert a drag. Core CPI is projected to nudge lower to 2.0% y/y in October from 2.1% in September. Existing home sales for October are due Monday.

• Europe: The focus will be, in fact, on the wealth of ECB speak this week, with central bankers gathering for a conference in Frankfurt. Draghi, Coeure and Constancio, among others, will have plenty of opportunity to prep the markets for the December policy review. The minutes of the October ECB meeting meanwhile will give a flavour of the arguments from both doves and hawks at the central bank. The final reading of Eurozone October inflation data will be scrutinized. Analyst expect the headline CPI to be confirmed at 0.0% y/y, with core at 1.0% y/y. German ZEW investor sentiment may improve slightly to 5.0 (median 6.1) from 1.9. The flash reading of Eurozone November Consumer Confidence – Flash is also expected to show a slight improvement but to a still negative -7.6 (median -7.7) from -7.7 in the previous month other data releases this week include Eurozone current account and balance of payment numbers, as well as German PPI.

• UK: Inflation data for October (Tuesday) highlights the week ahead for the U.K., though it is not likely to be a game changer, with an unchanged -0.1% y/y expected (median same) in the headline CPI, and an unchanged 1.0% y/y outcome in core CPI. Official retail sales for October are also due (Thursday), which is expected to decline 0.5% m/m (median -0.4%) following the outsized 1.9% m/m gain in September. This would leave the y/y figure rising 4.2% y/y, down from the +6.5% figure seen in the month prior. The November CBI industrial trends survey (also Thursday) is expected to show a rebound from unexpected weakness in October. Month government borrowing data are also released (Friday).

• Japan: The October trade balance (Thursday) is expected to reveal a widening of the deficit to JPY 200 bln, as compared to the September JPY 115.8 bln shortfall. The BoJ also meets on Thursday, and is expected to leave policy unchanged.

• China: The calendar is thin with just October leading indicators (Friday).

• Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the minutes to the RBA’s November 3rd meeting (Tuesday). Assistant Governor (Economic) Kent speaks at USB’s Australasia Conference in Sydney (Tuesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks at the Bloomberg Summit (Wednesday). The Q3 wage price index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% gain in Q2.

• New Zealand: Q3 retail sales, expected to rise a price adjusted 1.5% (q/q, sa) after the 0.1% gain in Q2. Q3 PPI inputs and outputs are due Thursday. There is nothing from the RBNZ’s this week.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: There are several crucial economic reports this week, including nonfarm payrolls, vehicle sales, ISMs, and trade. The October employment report due out on Friday will be the week’s main event. The unemployment rate is forecast dipping to 5.0% from 5.1% previously, another multi-decade low. Also of importance is October ISM manufacturing figures on Monday and the services data on Wednesday. The manufacturing index is estimated edging up to 50.5 from 50.2 in September, though that’s just barely in expansionary territory. The non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to 57.0 from 56.9 as solid growth is seen accelerating a bit. Vehicle sales on Tuesday are expected to inch lower, however, after strong sales through the summer. Trade figures for September on Wednesday should show sharp narrowing in the deficit to a -$41.5 bln gap, from -$48.3 bln in August, given the drop in the goods deficit posted last week. Q3 productivity on Thursday is seen at unchanged for the preliminary report, from the 3.3% Q2 pace. Unit labor costs should rebound to a 2.5% rate in Q3, versus Q2′s -1.4%. Other data include October ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, construction spending for September also on Monday, September factory orders on Tuesday, and September consumer credit to be released on Friday.

• Canada: Key reports this week from Canada, with September trade and October employment on the schedule. The September trade balance on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -C$1.9 bln in from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in August. Employment on Friday is expected to improve 10.0k in October after the 12.1k gain in September. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.1% in October, matching the 7.1% rate seen in September. The Ivey PMI on Thursday is projected to improve to 55.0 in October from the seasonally adjusted 53.7 in September. Building permits on Friday are anticipated to grow 1.0% in September after the 3.7% drop in August. The RBC manufacturing PMI for October is due Monday. Results in line with analyst estimates, especially on trade and employment, would be supportive of the Bank of Canada’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook as detailed in the October Monetary Policy Report.

• Japan: The October Markit/JMMA PMI on Monday is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2. Auto sales are also on tap. The markets are closed Tuesday for the Culture Day holiday. The calendar does not pick up again until late in the week with the BoJ minutes to the October 6, 7 meeting on Thursday. Preliminary September leading and coincident indices on Friday should show the former down 1.3% m/m from the prior -1.5% reading, while the latter is expected to come in at -0.7% m/m from -0.9% in August. In addition, eyes will be peeled for news on a rumored Japanese government special stimulus budget, which made the rounds last Friday following the BoJ’s inaction on the QE front.

• China: The Caixin/Markit series released today improved slightly to 48.3 from 47.2. October services PMI out on Wednesday is likely to improve to 50.7 from 50.5.

• Australia: The calendar for Australia features the RBA on Tuesday, which is expected to maintain the current 2.00% policy setting, although the slowing in core CPI during Q3 revealed last week opened the door to a possible rate cut. As for economic data, the trade deficit on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -A$3.0 bln in September from -A$3.1 bln in August. Retail sales on Wednesday are seen rising 0.3% in September after the 0.4% gain in August. Building approvals on Monday expanded 2.2% in September after the 6.9% drop in August. The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy due out on Friday will update the bank’s growth and inflation projections.

• New Zealand: The calendar features the Q3 employment report on Wednesday. It’s expected for HLFS employment to rise 0.5% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% gain in Q2. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 6.0% in Q3 from 5.9% in Q2.

• Europe: This week’s reports are unlikely to change the macro outlook fundamentally for the Eurozone . The services index is out on Wednesday. Economic activity continues to expand, and on the whole, confidence readings have surprised on the upside in October, which shows the recovery remains on track. German manufacturing orders on Thursday are also expected to have rebounded in September, after falling sharply in August. German industrial production on tab for Friday is seen up 0.4% m/m , after falling 1.2% m/m in August — the September drop in orders likely will prevent a more pronounced rebound. Eurozone retail sales are also due out on Thursday.

• UK: October editions of PMI survey data, along with September production numbers are on tap. There also is the November BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcing Thursday). An expected uptick in the services index should help stabilize the composite reading. Its expected that the services PMI released on Wednesday to rebound from September’s 29-month low at 53.3, anticipating a 54.4 outcome. The manufacturing PMI today is expected at 51.3 after 51.5 in the previous month. Production data is expected to show a -0.1% m/m dip in the industrial output figure, while the narrower manufacturing number is expected at +0.6% m/m.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday. No changes are expected at this week’s FOMC meeting, especially after China’s rate cut and further QE comments from the ECB last week. The markets are not pricing in much chance for hike until perhaps after March. If Fed policymakers were worried about growth and prices at last month’s meeting, they can not be encouraged by the recent downbeat developments about global growth. The firming in the dollar will only make it more difficult for the FED Committee to be confident in meeting its price mandate anytime soon too, which likely rules out action at the December meeting. Economic data this week will show an economy that continues to expand, but at a slower pace in Q3 as the Advance Q3 GDP release is seen slowing to a 1.7% pace from the 3.9% growth rate in Q2. Another weak durable orders report is projected: September orders are seen falling 1.0% after the 2.3% drop in August. The ECI will accelerate to a 0.6% growth rate in Q3, according to the survey median, from the 0.2% gain in Q2.

• Europe: A heavy data week in the Eurozone that will focus on October confidence readings and preliminary inflation numbers. PMI readings came in better than expected, which means there is some room for upside surprises. French and Italian PPI, German import prices, German retail sales, French consumer spending and Italian business confidence. The German Ifo Business Climate (Monday) is seen falling to 108.1 (median 107.8) from 108.5, led by a drop in the current conditions indicator following the slump in orders. Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence (Thursday) meanwhile is expected to ease slightly to 105.3 (median 105.1) from 105.6 following the mixed leads from better than expected PMI reading and the marked drop in the preliminary consumer confidence figure. The latter is likely to be followed by another decline in German GfK Consumer Confidence to 9.4 (median same) from 9.6.

• United Kingdom: This weeks U.K. data brings the October CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), the first estimate of Q3 GDP (Tuesday), the monthly batch of BoE lending data (Thursday), the CBI distributive sales survey (also Thursday), and, finally, the October Gfk consumer confidence survey (Friday). The main market focus will be clearer picture of moderate growth in Q3, strong mortgage lending and rising lending to businesses, along with an uptick in consumer confidence. It is also anticipate that the CBI surveys will show some moderation, correcting in the case of the sales sector poll following a very strong number in September.

• Japan: Japan month end data could set up the for the BoJ to consider its next QQE stimulus on Friday, following the ECB and PBoC rate cuts. Bank of Japan data this week includes, retail sales, personal income and consumption, and employment data. September services PPI (Tuesday) is expected to ease to 0.6% y/y from 0.7%. September retail sales (Wednesday) are forecast to fall to 1.0% y/y from the prior 1.8% for large retailers, and dip to 0.5% y/y from 0.8% for total retail sales. The balance of the calendar comes on Friday, and includes September national CPI, expected to fall to -0.1% y/y from 0.2% on a headline basis, and to -0.3% y/y from -0.1% on a core basis. October Tokyo CPI is seen unchanged at -0.1% y/y for headline, and unchanged at -0.2% for the core reading. September unemployment is seen steady at 3.4%, as is the job offers/seekers ratio at 1.23. September personal income is forecast at 1.0% y/y from 2.2% previously, with PCE expected to fall to 1.0% y/y from 2.9% in August. September housing starts are penciled in at a 4.0% y/y rise, from 8.8% in August. September construction orders are also due. The BoJ meets Friday, and following China’s lead last week, it’s expected that the Bank to increase its prior JPY 80 tln QE efforts to JPY 100 tln, taking the monetary base target to JPY 345 tln from JPY 325 tln.

• China: China’s calendar is light, with just September leading indicators set for Thursday.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar of economic data this week. The Q3 CPI (Tuesday) is seen expanding at a 0.6% pace (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% growth rate in Q2. The Q3 PPI (Thursday) is expected to gain 0.2% (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% gain in Q2. Trade prices (Wednesday) are expected to reveal a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) for Q3 import prices and a 0.8% increase in import prices. There are no speakers from the RBA this week. The RBA meets on November 3, and its expected no change to the current 2.00% policy setting.

• New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the RBNZ announcement (Thursday). It is a close call between no change and a cut, but its expected a 25 basis point reduction to 2.50% as the bank continues to lean against strong external headwinds. The trade deficit (Wednesday) is projected to narrow to -NZ$1.000 bln in September from -NZ$1.035 bln in August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.