Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: The U.S. economic calendar on tap this week includes, housing reports, inflation, Empire , Philly Fed updates, and the FOMC minutes from the October 27-28 meeting that may add confusion to the outlook for a December tightening. The Empire State index today is forecast to rebound to -7.0 in November (median -6.0) from -11.4 in October. This will be followed (Tuesday) by CPI seen rising a tame 0.1% for both headline and core (median 0.2% for both). Industrial production is projected to be unchanged in October (median 0.1%), while capacity use slows to 77.4% and the NAHB housing market index may hold steady at 64 in November. The MBA mortgage market index (Wednesday) is due, along with October housing starts forecast to sink 2.2% to a 1,180k unit pace following the 6.5% jump in September, while permits are seen rising to 1,140k from 1,105k. The week wraps up (Thursday) with initial jobless claims set to sink 9k to 267k, while the Philly Fed index may bounce to 0.0 in November from -4.5 and October leading indicators are expected to rise 0.1% (median 0.4%) vs -0.2 %.

• Canada: A full calendar this week, with manufacturing, wholesale and retail shipments due alongside CPI. Manufacturing shipments (Monday) are expected to rise 0.5% m/m in September after the 1.5% drop in August. Wholesale shipments (Thursday) are seen expanding 0.3% m/m in September following the 0.1% dip in August. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.3% m/m in September after the 0.5% gain in August, while the ex-autos sales aggregate dips 0.1% m/m versus the flat reading in August. CPI is expected to slow to a 0.9% y/y pace in October following the 1.0% y/y growth rate in September as lower gasoline prices exert a drag. Core CPI is projected to nudge lower to 2.0% y/y in October from 2.1% in September. Existing home sales for October are due Monday.

• Europe: The focus will be, in fact, on the wealth of ECB speak this week, with central bankers gathering for a conference in Frankfurt. Draghi, Coeure and Constancio, among others, will have plenty of opportunity to prep the markets for the December policy review. The minutes of the October ECB meeting meanwhile will give a flavour of the arguments from both doves and hawks at the central bank. The final reading of Eurozone October inflation data will be scrutinized. Analyst expect the headline CPI to be confirmed at 0.0% y/y, with core at 1.0% y/y. German ZEW investor sentiment may improve slightly to 5.0 (median 6.1) from 1.9. The flash reading of Eurozone November Consumer Confidence – Flash is also expected to show a slight improvement but to a still negative -7.6 (median -7.7) from -7.7 in the previous month other data releases this week include Eurozone current account and balance of payment numbers, as well as German PPI.

• UK: Inflation data for October (Tuesday) highlights the week ahead for the U.K., though it is not likely to be a game changer, with an unchanged -0.1% y/y expected (median same) in the headline CPI, and an unchanged 1.0% y/y outcome in core CPI. Official retail sales for October are also due (Thursday), which is expected to decline 0.5% m/m (median -0.4%) following the outsized 1.9% m/m gain in September. This would leave the y/y figure rising 4.2% y/y, down from the +6.5% figure seen in the month prior. The November CBI industrial trends survey (also Thursday) is expected to show a rebound from unexpected weakness in October. Month government borrowing data are also released (Friday).

• Japan: The October trade balance (Thursday) is expected to reveal a widening of the deficit to JPY 200 bln, as compared to the September JPY 115.8 bln shortfall. The BoJ also meets on Thursday, and is expected to leave policy unchanged.

• China: The calendar is thin with just October leading indicators (Friday).

• Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the minutes to the RBA’s November 3rd meeting (Tuesday). Assistant Governor (Economic) Kent speaks at USB’s Australasia Conference in Sydney (Tuesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks at the Bloomberg Summit (Wednesday). The Q3 wage price index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% gain in Q2.

• New Zealand: Q3 retail sales, expected to rise a price adjusted 1.5% (q/q, sa) after the 0.1% gain in Q2. Q3 PPI inputs and outputs are due Thursday. There is nothing from the RBNZ’s this week.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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