AUDUSD, Daily              

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are outperforming so far today, showing respective gains of 0.6% and 0.8% against the USD. (See our Traders Board for details) Fitch’s AA rating for long-term New Zealand sovereign debt helped the Kiwi dollar higher, while gains in commodity prices have also been supportive for both the antipodean currencies. Expectations for a 25 bp rate cut by the RBNZ at its review tomorrow have been fully baked in. Yield differentials are also strongly in their favour relative to core developed-world benchmarks, which, in the case of Australia was given sharpened relevance by last week’s RBA Statement on Monday Policy which noted that CPI was expected to pick up “gradually to around 2% by the end of the forecast period,” signalling that the central bank may be done with easing following quarter-point cuts last week and in May.

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the last daily close at 23:59:59 server time.

Technically, the AUDUSD remains in a strong up trend since it broke and held the 20 DMA (August 2), which offers a support area 0.7620-0.7590. The near two week rise from the 23.6 Fibonacci level and psychological 0.7450 level could lead to a re trace to 0.7690 before Target 1 at 0.7840 and Target 2 at 0.8000.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD, Daily

The RBA Meeting Minutes from from the June 7th policy review were published today. Minutes contained no indication of further rate cuts which has kept a positive momentum going in the AUD. It has gained today against the USD, EUR and CAD while it has lost ground to against JPY and NZD. In May the central bank cut rates lower to 1.75 (a record low) in a surprise move and signalled at the time that inflation was expected to remain subdued for some time. Lower AUD has helped the economy and supported the labour market. Unemployment has dropped from 6.25 to 5.75 in the first quarter. At first the rate cut produced further depreciation in the currency but it was soon reversed and AUDUSD has rallied over 4% since the low at the end of May. At the time of writing AUDUSD is trading above the levels it was at the time of the May 7th rate cut. Traders seem to be bidding the pair higher on the back of the belief that the RBA has reached the end of the easing cycle. This however could change if the currency appreciated significantly from the current levels and started to impact the employment numbers.

Technically AUDUSD has created a bullish higher low (at 0.7285) in the daily picture and is currently challenging the high at 0.7504 created in the beginning of June. This level coincides with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level but the preceding higher low together with the strong economic picture and the recent RBA communication suggests that the market is more likely to push through this resistance. The next significant resistance area after 0.7504 is at 0.7574 – 0.7600 while the nearest daily support is at 0.7410. The nearest intraday support area can be found at 0.7435 – 0.7465. I’m looking for buy signals inside the support area. My targets are as follows: T1 is at 0.7500 and T2 at 0.7570. Alternatively, if price breaks above the resistance without a retracement to support then I’m applying the strategy our traders know from the Live Analysis Webinars. Should that be the case, the 0.7570 becomes the T1 while T2 would then be at 0.7605.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD, H4     

The Aussie outperformed today after data showed exports made a 1.1 percentage point contribution to Q1 GDP, up from a zero contribution in the previous quarter and above the consensus view for a 0.7 percentage point outcome. This sent economists scurrying to upgrade GDP forecasts ahead of tomorrow’s release of growth data for the March quarter. AUDUSD was showing a 0.9% gain 0.7245, having logged an eight-day peak at 0.7250. Elsewhere, USDJPY has settled in the low 111s, below yesterday’s one-month peak at 111.40. Japanese data were encouraging today, with April industrial production unexpectedly rising 0.3% m/m, despite the activity-affecting earthquakes that struck in that month. Household spending also declined less than expected. The data supports the view that the Japanese economy will continue on a slow-growth plane; but with deflation threating the consensus for the BoJ to expand monetary policy by July is likely to remain a strong-conviction view. With the Fed on course for a second rate hike, I remain bullish of USDJPY (Target 2 111.90 still in play), especially as Chinese stock markets having posted their longest winning streak since 2012. EURUSD rose to a two-session peak at 1.1154 amid a bout of dollar selling, since drifting back around the 1.1130 area.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD, H4      

On May 6^th I posted “Technically we now have Daily support and downside Target 1 at 0.7330 – the 50% Fib level, which also coincides with the Weekly retracement levels.  Further down we have 200 DMA, support and Target 2 at 0.7260.”

This trade has now achieved both Target 1 and Target 2 within the week following the strong US data on Friday for a net gain of 110 pips. The AUD is heavily influenced by data from China and the weak news over the weekend has pushed the AUDUSD below the 200 DMA and 0.7260 again, only to recover to 0.7290 this morning.

Chinese retail sales and industrial production underperformed in April with annual sales sliding to a 10.1% y/y pace last month, versus 10.5% y/y in March. Slippage was relatively broad-based, with autos tumbling to a 5.1% y/y rate, less than half of the 12.3% y/y from March. Petroleum declined to -3.8% y/y from 0.3% y/y. Industrial production dropped to a 6.0% y/y clip compared to 6.8% y/y thanks to weakness in mining, high energy consumption, and seasonal factors. Renewed signs of slowing in these key indicators could revive the markets’ fears over the economy that dominated at the start of the year, especially as authorities have been aggressively adding to stimulus measures.

Having achieved both T1 and T2 this trade is now closed, however, the pair remains bearish and the Monthly chart shows support at 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD, Daily    

On Friday (May 6^th) I identified a low risk, high probability trade based on both the fundamental news and a coincidence of technical indicators. The RBA had cut interest rates on Tuesday May 3^rd and then had also cut Inflation expectations for 2016 on Thursday May 5^th.  The initial Target 1 (0.7330) saw a confluence of the Daily and Weekly Fibonacci levels, together with a key psychological area that was likely to be tested.

Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the Australian federal election (the 54 day campaign started today for the July 2^nd election) is likely to hang over the AUD.

The USD strengthened in the Asian session and has gained ground in the European session today as USDJPY trades north of 108.00 and EURUSD falls to nine-day lows at 1.1380.

Further down we have 200 DMA, support and Target 2 at 0.7260.  The Monthly chart turned down during April and shows support at 0.7050 and then 0.7000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD, Daily    

The RBA cut its forecast for underlying inflation in 2016 to 1-2% from 2-3% in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The Bank’s forecasts for growth and the labour market were little changed from the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Further rate cuts look likely this year amid increased risk that inflation expectations remain persistently lower for longer than the Bank currently expects. AUDUSD fell 0.8% to 0.7400 from 0.7460 as the Australian dollar lost value against the U.S. dollar following the release of the Statement.

I last updated the AUDUSD pair April 27th before the RBA meeting last week and the rate cut and last night’s reduction in the inflation target. My headline then was  “Australia Where  has the inflation gone?” yesterday’s announcement  cemented my thoughts. I also suggested that the 0.7450 level was a key support level; this was robustly and significantly broken in the last 24 hours.

Technically we now have Daily support and downside Target 1 at 0.7330 – the 50% Fib level, which also coincides with the Weekly retracement levels.  Further down we have 200 DMA, support and Target 2 at 0.7260.  The monthly chart turned down during April and shows support at 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUD/USD, Daily    

The Aussie dollar dove on CPI data:  Australian inflation tumbled to 1.3% y/y in March from 1.7% in the previous month, with the q/q figure unexpectedly turning negative for the first time since 2008, falling to -0.2%. The Aussie is nursing over  1.5% loss to the USD and is down by 1.7% versus the yen, which registers the biggest movement out of the currencies we track. The data has catalyzed speculation that the RBA will be forced to consider at rate cut at its May-3 policy meeting. AUD-USD clocked a nine-day low at 0.7623.

Technically, the 23.6 Fib level and Psychological 0.7600 area has held so far today, 0.7510 has 50 DMA and lower Bollinger band and the longer term daily support and 38.2 Fib sit at 0.7450. Upside resistance at the round numbers 0.7700 and 0.7800.

All eyes on the FOMC today, BOJ tomorrow and the RBA next Tuesday (May 3^rd), an extremely interesting few days ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDAUD, Daily

I first posted March 23^rd on the strengthening Australian dollar as commodity prices recovered from their early year nadir and the negative sentiment (for now) over China began to wane. The news flow from Australia continues to be received in a positive light and the good jobs data last week helped the pair get very close to Target 2, before finally closing above it yesterday.

This trade is a good example of the cycles within cycles that occur on the currency markets and that patience is one of the key assets of a successful trader. The trade reversed for 2 days before recovering and hitting Target 1 (0.7690 +110 pips) within the following 4 days.

The extended target at Target 2 (0.7730 +150 pips) was more interesting.  The pair did not have the energy on this initial attempt at the psychological 0.7700 to hold above this level. It then reversed for another 5 days, but again finding support at another round number, this time 0.7500.  The rally in the pair from April 8^th posting higher highs and lower lows allowed it to finally close over 0.7700 on Friday, yesterday’s large volatility allowed Target 2 to be achieved.

Although the rally in this pair may have further to run Target 1 and Target 2 have been accomplished and this trade is now closed.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.