Weak Gold Reacted Lower As China Bought Less Gold Than Expected

July 20, 2015 Forex Analysis

Gold, Weekly

Gold traded slightly below a major support level at 1130.40 on Friday and then moved even lower in Globex session at 2:30 am London time this morning. Price of Gold is down by 1.58% at the time of writing after Gold futures market was hit hard when it was at its weakest. Gold was trading at 1125 at the time when suddenly trading volumes increased by over 100% relative to average volumes over the past few hours. This aggressive selling during the hours when the market is at its thinnest took Gold down to a next major support level at 1080.

I warned about Gold’s long term weakness in my two previous reports. In June 8^th report I pointed out that price action in Gold since the US Dollar index (DXY) started topping has not supported the Relative Strength idea. A market that has true relative strength bounces sharply higher when factors constraining its move higher are removed. This never happened in Gold even though the restraining factor of DXY strength was removed for a while. In my June 22^nd report I pointed out several bearish indications in the long term technical picture: lower highs, a lower pointing 50 period SMA together with downward sloping trend channel and the fact that lack of momentum is indicating lack of serious long interest in this market.

This morning’s move took Gold down to a historical support from 2010 and very close to the lower end of the price channel. This bounced the price sharply higher while nearest resistance level is relatively close at 1130.40. The 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 1135.60 coincides with this resistance. The next resistance area is approx. at 1142.

Gold, Daily

News that China has been much more moderate buyer in gold than it was thought to be contributed to the fall. For the first time in six years China unveiled how much gold it had accumulated since 2009. While markets had assumed that the Chinese government had been buying gold at a rate of approximately 40 tonnes per month the real number was just slightly above 8 tonnes. This added to the bearishness as one big buyer was much less active than was suggested by the analysts.

After trending lower in a regression channel the price of gold has now made an extended move to the downside. The levels near the long term channel bottom attracted some serious buying as gold has rallied over three percent from today’s low. The nearest significant resistance level is at 1130.40 while next resistance is at 1146. The 1130.40 resistance coincides with the channel low. The 1080 level at today’s low is obviously the nearest support level in the daily time frame.

Gold, 240 min

As price has moved so quickly lower there isn’t much to comment in terms of technical analysis. Also, the four hour picture is not significantly different from the daily chart. Price has rallied from a support and is now trading close to the mid-range of the previous candle. The lower 2 stdv Bollinger Band has limited the move higher and the price of gold has reacted slightly lower from the band over the last two hours. The nearest 4h resistance level is at 1129.60 while the support level is at 1080.

Conclusion

The long term weakness that was visible in price action has now materialized in a form of a sharp move lower through weekly support levels at 1130 and 1141.70. These broken supports together with a former daily support at 1146 are now a likely resistance area. Long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold but in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report. Obviously price move can turn inside this range and not at the exact levels but the principle stays the same: we should see price action based confirmation before considering short positions.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

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Free Forex Analysis for 07.20.2015

July 20, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 07.20.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, despite bearish momentum signals by stochastic oscillator analysis and a “Dow Pattern” down trend observation within the daily chart, may look to bounce off the May 27th low (1.0819) level to seek a lower top, ideally, around the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s. Short term traders may look into selling at any strength around the mentioned lower tops with targets into the 1.0750’s.

The EUR economic calendar started out this week with steady German June PPI inflation data; German inflation fell -1.4& y/y with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices dropped 4.1% m/m. Last week, the EUR faced several important thresholds in terms of the ECB policy meeting and some resolutions regarding Greece. This week, we have a relatively light economic calendar so traders should expect to see lower volatility levels from last week with price action firmly in control of the technical traders.

The dollar is firm against gold and the AUD in overnight Asian trade, although, the AUD has since recovered off today’s lows. This USD strength is set to resume from Friday trade as in-line CPI and better housing starts, numbers give support to the USD.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading lower against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• German Jun PPI inflation: was steady at -1.4% y/y, with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices declined 4.1% m/m, after rising 2.4% m/m in May. Energy prices dropped 4.4% y/y and remain the dominating factor behind the sharp decline in prices over the year.

• CAD Wholesale Sales: for May are forecasted to come in at 0.5%, median -0.2% down from last 1.9% on the back of weaker commodity prices.

• USD Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks: is due to speak about the importance of financial reform.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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DOWNTRENDING AUDCAD HAS RALLIED TO RESISTANCE AREA

July 17, 2015 Forex Analysis

AUDCAD, Weekly

AUDCAD has been moving lower in a wide trend channel after failing to penetrate at parity in the beginning of the year. Downtrend is clearly taking place as we have lower highs and lower lows but at the same time we need to acknowledge that this movement is taking place close to a longer term range low. AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend before breaking below the long term range bottom. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

This week the pair has rallied strongly from lower Bollinger Bands and a support area near 0.9331. AUDCAD is now approaching top of downward sloping price channel which suggests that the short term upside is getting limited. This area also coincides with a weekly resistance level at 0.9664 and a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.9648. This resistance also lines up with a level that used to support price on closing basis in February this year. The nearest weekly support level is at the latest low at 0.9376 while the next significant weekly support level is at 0.9331.

AUDCAD, Daily

Price has been rallying higher for four consecutive days and is currently trading at July 1^st. pivotal candle low. Several technical factors coincide around the current price level: channel top, upper Bollinger Bands and a pivot high from July 1^st. These factors together suggest that price could turn lower from here. Additionally, Stochastics Oscillator is trading above the overbought threshold adding to the indication that this down trending market is quite overbought and therefore vulnerable at the current levels.

Price action today shows some signs of weakness as the pair is trading near opening price after a rally higher was rejected. However, it is still too early make conclusions based on today’s candle as trading action over the rest of the day is likely to change the form of this price bar significantly.

The next significant daily support level coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9515 while the nearest significant daily resistance level is at 0.9664.

AUDCAD, 240 min

The pair built a small base between July 6^th and 14^th and has since rallied almost the distance equivalent to the base width. The pair is at the time of writing AUDCAD is still finding support from a minor support level at 0.9584 and tries to rally higher. However, Stochastics is overbought and shows signs of slowing momentum as it is very close to moving below its signal line.

Conclusion

AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend rather than breaking below the long term range low. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

However, as long as we have a down trending market at a resistance, it makes sense to look for shorting opportunities. In short term, the pair is trading at resistance while still inside a downward trend channel. This suggests a move lower from current levels is more likely than a breakout from the channel. Look for momentum reversal signals between 0.9594 and 0.9664. If short trade signals take place and are successful then my targets are T1: 0.9515 and T2: 0.9475.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Free Forex Analysis for 07.17.2015

July 17, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 07.17.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is now trading at the lower end of the daily chart downtrend channel after breaking below the key 1.0920’s levels earlier this week. The short term outlook still remains bearish even after a failed attack on the 1.0840’s 2nd target extension during yesterday’s trading session. At the time of writing, price seems to be bouncing off the lower Bollinger band; ideally, I would like to see a lower top around the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s before initiating any new short sales. Traders should expect to see some choppy trading during the next bounce before any resumption of any attack on the 1.0840’s, if these levels are cleared, the next leg lower should leave price to hang around the 1.0750’s.

The ECB and the markets would like to move past Greece; focus was on the ECB policy meeting yesterday which, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged. Reporters, however, did not feel that it was time to move past Greece with the ECB press conference dominated by questions regarding Greece. The good news for Greece is that the European Central bank lifted the ELA assistance for Greek banks, removing any immediate fears that Greek Banks would not have any funds for depositors to withdraw. What still remains unclear for the Greeks is how long exchange controls will remain in place.

The dollar was firm during most of the N.Y. session on Thursday, although, the greenback did trade a bit softer upon the release of the Philly Fed index. For Friday trading, expect some USD price action upon the release of the USD Building Permits, CPI and later Uom Consumer Sentiment reports.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD.

GBP is strong against the JPY, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• US Housing Starts: June housing starts are out Friday and should show a 5.7% increase for the headline to a 1,095k (median 1,108k) following a big gyration in April-May that saw starts shoot up to 1,165k in April before dropping back to 1,036k in May. Accompanying the report we expect permits to slow to 1,105k from 1,250k in May and completions to slow 1,105k from 1,034.

• US CPI: June CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures but we have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.

• Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due Friday, to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in June (median same at +1.0%) following the 0.9% y/y rate in May. CPI is seen rising 0.3% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.6% bounce in May. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen dipping 0.1%, similar to the action seen in past months of June. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in June (median 2.2%), identical to the 2.2% clip in May. Core CPI saw a 2.3% y/y rate in April and a blistering 2.4% rate of increase in March.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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S&P 500 IN POTENTIAL TURNAROUND AREA

July 16, 2015 Forex Analysis

S&P 500, Weekly

Yesterday Fed Chair Yellen largely mirrored the recent FOMC statement and her own speech last week expressing cautious optimism about the expected rebound in U.S. growth, amid frustration about the continued low level of inflation. She cited global risks to this mostly healthy appraisal, and reiterated that it is not the lift-off but the policy path and pace of tightening that really matters. She expects a gradual tightening pace that still keeps policy accommodative.

Yellen’s speech didn’t move the markets that much yesterday. In fact, Nasdaq Composite (-0.12%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and S&P 500 (-0.07%) finished the day almost unchanged but slightly in the red. Financial sector, up by 0.84%, was rising strongly while Utilities gained 0.49% in absolute terms. Technology remained unchanged after hitting a resistance level the day before. Semiconductor sector ended the day down by 0.50% after a period of weakness. Even though semiconductor sector etf (SMH) is now at support and could therefore have a technical rally, the preceding weakness in semiconductor stocks is not a sign of a healthy market. Weakness in the technology sector etf (XLK) suggests the same. S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) has since yesterday’s close moved to the resistance area (2111.50 – 2134) I pointed out in my previous report.

S&P 500, Daily

Yesterday investors reacted positively after Bank of America (+3.21%), PNC (+0.84%) and US Bancorp (+3.76%) reported earnings. While US Bancorp’s earnings were in line with expectations the others exceeded them. Big US companies reporting today include ADV Micro Device, Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Ebay Inc., Goldman Sachs and Google.

ES has now advanced to the 2111.25 resistance level as expected. Market is overbought as per Stochastics Oscillator, while RSI and MFI are still below their overbought thresholds. ES is trading at descending trendline and close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands. Therefore, market is near to a potential turn around level but based on the recent price action it seems likely that it will push further in to the resistance area. Support and resistance levels: 2078 and 2134.

S&P 500, 240 min

ES has been trading higher as expected but is now at resistance. The width of the short term bottom indicates that the market will move to a bit higher. Resistance at 2122 coincides with the projection and is a pivotal high June 22^nd. Stochastics has diverged from price indicating that momentum is slowing down and potential turning point is getting close. The next important support level is at 2078, while the weekly high from May at 2134 is the most important resistance level after 2122. In very short term, the nearest supporting pivotal level is at 2107.75 (short red line).

Conclusion

Yellen’s determination to raise rates is not supportive for the stock market that has been used to easy and cheap money. This together with the fact that US stock market is trading at very high levels with high valuations means that market participants aren’t eager to take the stocks into new highs. Price rallied over the last two days but now it’s trading at resistance. Area between 2111.50 and 2134 is an important weekly resistance. Market is likely counter substantial supply inside this range. This should bring ES back down to 2073 – 2080 range.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Free Forex Analysis for 07.16.2015

July 16, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 07.16.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD managed to clear the 1.0920’s lower short term 1st target after failing to hold above the key 1.0960’s levels. According to my daily chart observations, looking back over the past six weeks, a down trend is being observed. This downtrend observation is supported by the fact that price is printing a series of new lower consecutive tops and lower bottoms over the last six weeks. Technically, the EURUSD remains soft, and after the clean break of the 1.0920’s, EURUSD short traders should keep an eye on the 1.0840’s as the next relevant target. EURUSD long traders will be watching the 1.0950’s -60’s areas for any potential price bounce upward penetration to leave a new lower top around the 1.1030’s-70.

The ECB seems to have some concerns about the re-opening of the Greek banks. ECB’s Dombret said in a speech that “it must be made sure that there is enough available liquidity, should depositors want to withdraw more money after the opening of the recapitalized bank”. Dombret also questioned if the Greek major banks are capable of surviving in the long term.

Fed Chair Yellen during yesterday’s testimony to congress gave an upbeat view regarding the US economy; however, she did not confirm or deny a September rate hike. Yellen did reiterate that tightening will likely happen sometime in 2015. The markets took this as a clue that it’s still Dollar time.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies. This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD. AUD is strong against the NZD, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Capacity Utilization June stood at 78.4% against 78.2% in May. The economy has improved, but still has a way to go.
• CAD Bank of Canada cut its key rate to 0.5% from 0.75% on July 15 in the hope of giving the economy a boost. Also, CAD Manufacturing sales in May were up 0.1% after having fallen 2.2% in April.
• GBP Unemployment increased to 5.6% in the three months to May, the lowest since April-June 2008. At the same time, wages grew at the fastest pace in more than five years.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

THE NEW CURRENCY MOVERS CHARTS TOOL NOW AVAILABLE IN TRADERS’ BOARD

July 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

The New Traders’ Board Page And Currency Movers Charts Tool

An all new Traders’ Board page is now public at Hotforex.com. We launched a new tool called Currency Movers Charts to serve You better. It displays both overnight and five day percentage changes in the major currencies against the other majors. Now you can, with just a glance, see how money is flowing between different currencies in Forex markets. With this tool you can identify the currency that’s currently attracting money at and over the last five days’ period while Currency Movers Charts also reveals which currency money is flowing out from.

EURNZD, 240 min

At the time of writing EUR is attracting money from other currencies while NZD and JPY have been losing some. The strongest performer intraday is EURNZD. In longer term picture the pair is trading at historical resistance created by a pivot in early 2014. Momentum is slowing down and should lead to a reversal. In intraday timeframe however the pair has rallied from a 4h support level and is currently trading just below a 50 period SMA but is moving higher from the downsloping trend channel top. The pair has some space above before it hits resistance at the previous day’s high at 1.6535.

AUDJPY, 240 min

AUDJPY is also interesting as it was the best performer earlier this morning. Over the last few days the pair has risen to a gap caused by the Greek drama couple of weeks ago. This could lead to a correction lower but because the pair is trading relatively close to 2015 weekly lows the downside is likely to be limited. Additionally, last week’s candle was a pinbar suggesting institutional buying between 89.00 and 91.20. Therefore, retracements back to 90.40 – 90.80 could provide us with low risk entries to this market. Look for momentum reversal signals to confirm the idea.

Five Day % Change

Another way of using Currency Movers Charts is identify strongly moving currencies over a period of time . GBP has been strong over the last five days with the biggest gains against the JPY. At the same time JPY has been the currency that has lost most against the other currencies over the same period. This indicates that market psychology has changed and participants have been moving away from safe havens into more riskier assets. This gives us insights on how markets feel about the future and how market participants have been positioning themselves.

GBPAUD, Weekly

GBP strength has been very evident lately but the GBPAUD has had a real bull run. The pair has been rising for 11 consecutive weeks. The fact that this has taken the pair to a historical resistance at 2.0948 and regression channel high gives us a reason to look for reversal signals as the pair might have moved too far and is getting close to a point were it will correct lower. Look for signs of momentum reversal in daily time frame. Weekly high from February (at 2.0028) is a likely long term target for shorts after the sell signals appear.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 07.15.2015

July 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 07.15.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD trades within a tight range over the last 24 hours; the 1.1050’s and 1.0960’s seem to be the key break out levels. A breach above the 1.1050’s will open up a daily chart lower top target around 1.1120’s – 60’s. Any move below the 1.0960’s could lead the pair lower towards the 1.0920’s with the possibility of even 1.0840’s as reasonable targets for traders who are considering EURUSD short positions.

Yesterday’s EURUSD trading managed to trade higher near the 1.1085 level after the weak U.S. retail sales data; the key driver for the pair still remains to be the outcome over the Greek saga, since finding a resolution between the Greek creditors remains illusive. As long as no real progress is seen regarding Greece, more downward pressure on the EUR looks likely. Something that may be on the minds of some EUR traders is whether the ECB will make a move to intervene in the FX market to support the EUR? My view is that this is something that can’t be ruled out, however, the fact that the ECB is still at an early stage with regards to QE programs can only support the potential downside price action for the EURUSD. The likelihood of any ECB intervention is highly unlikely; however, stranger things have happened in the past.

It is expected that the ECB will keep policy unchanged for this week’s interest rate announcement on Thursday, while the ECB continues to call on Eurozone members to implement reforms. It is expected that the ECB will remain on hold for the rest of the year, while the ongoing commitment to implementing QE continues. The unknown risk to the market is that should contagion happen because of the Greek crisis, any sudden ECB measures, as a response, could lead to market adjustments that may not already be priced in.

The latest release of the U.S. FOMC minutes showed a cautiously positive outlook, but concerns over Greece and a China slowdown does not guarantee that the U.S. fed will make any upward moves for interest rates in September.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies. This morning EUR is trading higher against the other majors. Commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD. AUD is struggling to trade above 0.7496 July 10th high while GBPJPY battles for continued upward momentum. Across the board money seems to be supporting the USD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Business confidence in Australia improved in June, as its index came in with a score of +10. That’s up from the upwardly revised +8 in May (originally +7), and it also marks the highest reading since September 2013.

• USD Retail sales fell by 0.3% in June. The drop in sales came following a 1.0% in May, which was downwardly revised compared to the 1.2% jump originally reported. On a y/y basis retail sales in June were up by 1.4%, reflecting a notable deceleration from the 2.3% annual growth seen in May.

• GBP CPI remained unchanged y/y, in contrast to a 0.2% increase in. Output prices decreased 1.5% y/y in June following a 1.6% drop in May. Prior to July 2014, there has been no fall in the annual rate since October 2009.Input prices declined sharply by 12.6% y/y in June, bigger than a 12.3% fall in May. On a monthly basis, input prices declined for the second month. Prices slid 1.3% after easing 1.1% in May. House price inflation accelerated to 5.7% in May from 5.5% in April. Month-on-month, average house prices gained 0.9% percent.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

S&P 500 Tries To Rally After Wedge Breakout

July 14, 2015 Forex Analysis

S&P 500, Weekly

US stock market corrected lower as expected and then found support in the region of lower Bollinger Bands and 50 period SMA. This move brought Stochastics to levels where it has turned higher from in the past. Last week’s candle was a rejection candle that suggests institutional buying in area of the lower Bollinger Bands. This week’s move above the last week’s high confirms the idea and suggests higher prices. However, there are resistance levels fairly nearby. The first one was hit yesterday as market closed the gap formed in the end of June. The next resistance level in the weekly picture is the low of a pivotal high from May at 2111.50.

Over the last month US stock market has been favouring safety stocks such as Utilities over the more risky financial stocks. Utilities are up by 1.71% when the baseline is the S&P 500 while the Financials have fared 0.23% worse than index. Other sectors with safe haven status, Consumer Staples and Health Care, are up 3.67% and 2.08% respectively. The indication here is that market participants have been careful and risk averse. This is likely to lead to a faltering of this rally at 2111.50 – 2134.00 resistance area and to a market that is range bound between the aforementioned resistance and the latest pivotal candle.

S&P 500, Daily

The earnings season has started in the US with some big names publishing their earnings today. Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Co and Yum! Brands are reporting today. The fact that season has just started should mean that we have plenty of volatility ahead in the individual stocks and should the results vary strongly from the expectations volatility would be likely to spill over to index as well.

S&P 500 index e-mini future (ES) has rallied to a spot where several technical factors coincide. The 50 period SMA, price gap and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level all coincide at the current level. Usually a cluster of technical factors at certain level adds to the relevance and importance of the level but with a support nearby this level isn’t likely to attract strong short selling. This is evident by the sideways move we’ve seen today. The next important resistance level is at 2111.25 while the nearest daily support is at 2078 where the base high and 38.2% Fibonacci level roughly coincide.

S&P 500, 240 min

Stochastics, RSI and Money Flow index are all firmly in the overbought territory while price is trading near a level that used to support price at 2099. Nearest support level is at 2075. Width of the short term bottoming formation points to the next resistance level at 2122. Stochastics is overbought and suggests that the advance might slow down before the move can continue. Sideways move in a smaller time frame (e.g. 60 min) would indicate that the move higher will take place.

Conlclusion

Long term picture in S&P 500 index is somewhere between neutral to the slightly bearish. Market is still technically in an uptrend but is showing signs of weakness: bearish wedge and a breakout from the wedge. I still don’t expect ES to move into new highs but rather see it testing the 2111.50 – 2140 resistance area and then moving sideways between the latest pivotal candle and the aforementioned resistance area. My short term ES target for the current rally is at 2110. Trades should be always opened at pullbacks and should there not be any it’s better to wait for one rather than trade at low probability spots. Look for longs at supports and shorts at resistance levels.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 07.14.2015

July 14, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 07.14.2015

EURUSD, Daily EURUSD at current levels does not seem to have a clear trend within my daily chart observations. The pair looks to be heading back to recent lows, after briefly touching the 1.1216 recovery attempt on the back of what the market thought was a positive development on the Greek debt solution. The fact the pair managed to break the physiological 1.10 level may also point to bearish momentum building up, thus raising fears of a further downward price extension past the 1.0920’s and possible opening up the 1.0840’s in the short term. The fact that the Eurogroup still has to secure bridge financing for Greece ,a process that may take up to four weeks, will cast some doubts over the markets if Greece would be able to deliver upcoming repayments to the ECM and the IMF? Uncertainty will prevail for position traders while the market timers will rely on the technical price indicators, as the battle between the buyers and sellers for control of the pair continues. Inside the ECB, Mr. Coene, a representative to the Supervisory Board said “Grexit would not have been a better solution “, “In the first phase , a Grexit would without a doubt be more painful.” However , he did add that the Greek economy would recover more quickly. Looking back at the Argentina bankruptcy, having the ability to print your way out may be easier for the Greek government to bring the economy back on track. Greece staying within the Eurozone is more political than financial , not only for Greek politicians, but also for key forces within the Eurozone. The latest USD data to report on are that U.S. Wholesale inventories increased by 0.8% in May after rising by 0.4% in April. Wholesale sales rose by 0.3% in May after surging up by 1.7% in April. Later on today we have the USD Core Retails Sales due out.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change) The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies. This morning EUR is trading higher while JPY is down again as the need for safe haven dissipates. Other currencies’ performance remains soft against the USD and without strong directional bias. USCAD has rallied to a resistance at 127.98 while GBPJPY battles for continued upward momentum. Across the board money seems to be moving in the CHF indicating traders are moving back into safe haven positions.

Main Macro Events Today

• U.K. CPI dipped to 0.0% in June from +0.1% y/y, the inflation rate still remains above April’s cycle low of -0.1% y/y.
• U.S. Core Retail Sales data out later today forecast calls for a decrease of 0.7% below the previous 1.0% numbers

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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