GBPJPY & Cable Hit Target 2 – Sterling Sags

September 19, 2016 Forex Analysis

GBPJPY, Daily

Sterling suffered on Friday from reports on Bloomberg that the UK finance minister (Philip Hammond) is ready to accept the fact that the UK may have to give up single-market membership in the European Union to achieve the immigration restrictions voters demanded in the Brexit vote. Cable closed the day and week down 1.8 percent and GBPJPY slumped from north of 135.00 to close under 133.00.

The slip in sterling has helped both our SHORT GBP trades reach Target 2 – GBYJPY (132.80) and GBPUSD (1.3070) for a net gain on both trades of over 600 pips.

2016-09-19_16-58-32

Today the USD has traded softer and corrected some of its outperformance from Friday, Market conditions have been thin with Tokyo markets absent and with market participants largely on the sidelines ahead of the Fed and BoJ policy decisions this week. USDJPY ebbed back under 102.00, breached Friday’s low on route to a four-session low at 101.69. EURUSD traded in a narrow orbit of 1.1150. Cable recouped some of the sharp losses seen on Friday, lifting above 1.3080, well over half a big figure up on the day.

However, the close of the day and week below the psychological 1.3000 level is definitely one to watch. Next break lower would be the August low of 1.2860, the post Brexit low of 1.2780 and then 1.2500.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

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The Economic Week Ahead for 09.19.2016

September 19, 2016 Forex Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with the focus on the FOMC and BoJ. And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. With some policymakers starting to doubt the effectiveness of the low and negative rate structures, there’s increased uncertainty over just what will be announced, with the BoJ having perhaps the biggest opportunity to surprise with either its decisions on rates or QE purchases.

United States: The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) dominates the landscape. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment. Indeed, Fed funds futures are suggesting a very low probability of less than 15%. A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. The September NAHB homebuilder survey leads off (Monday) and is expected to hold steady at 60. August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected falling to a 1.193 mln pace, after two consecutive monthly gains. Existing home sales (Thursday) should bounce 1.7% to a 5.480 mln. Weekly jobless claims, the August leaders index, the July FHFA home price index, and the KC Fed manufacturing survey are also due Thursday, with the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing report on Friday.

Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however, it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday.

Canada: CPI and retails sales highlight the week’s slate of economic data, which also includes wholesale trade. Total CPI (Friday) is seen expanding at a 1.4% and The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is projected to moderate to 2.0%. Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise 0.3% with the the ex-autos retail aggregate is expected to gain 0.6%. Wholesale shipments (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.2% in July. Bank of Canada governor Poloz speaks Tuesday in Quebec City, with a press conference to follow.

Europe: This week’s data calendar is the timely set of confidence indicators in the form of preliminary September PMI readings (Friday). Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5 and an uptick in the services reading to 52.9, and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8. Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.

UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September (Thursday), where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Wednesday), as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday. The pound finished the day with a 1.8% loss to the dollar and with an average decline of 1.4% against the G3 currencies.

China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week.

Japan: is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday, and again on Thursday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, bookending the two-day BoJ meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday). The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The August trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 250.0 bln from the revised 513.6 bln in July. The July all-industry index (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% m/m versus the June 1.0% increase.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting (Tuesday), when policymakers held rates steady at 1.50% and shifted to a more balanced policy bias (from a tilt toward further easing). There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due (Tuesday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Free Forex Trading Signals For 09.19.2016

September 19, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        96.40—-95.70    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
EUR/USD     1.1200—-1.1110 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GBP/USD     1.3080—-1.2920    Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/CHF     0.9850—-0.9770 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/JPY      102.65—-101.95 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Buttom
AUD/USD     0.7520—-0.7460 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3260—-1.3150 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GOLD 1316.00—1304.00   Sell at the Top,       Stop Loss 7 $, Target at the Buttom
Silver   19.00—18.60 Sell at the Top,       Stop Loss 0.20 $, Target at the Buttom
Oil   44.30—43.30     Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.50 $, Target at the Top

Keywords:Forex Trading Signals,Forex Trading Strategy,Forex Trading System,Free Forex Analysis,Forex Forecast
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Copper – In every trade there is a lesson

September 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

Copper, Daily

Following the Commodity Webinar I posted a LONG position on Copper on September 7 and suggested that it was time for copper to catch a bid …… “the strong close yesterday (a 7 day high and strong body on the candle together with a break above the seven day range) triggered a LONG trade at 2.0874. Target 1 is 2.1150 which coincides with the 20 DMA and 23.6 Fib level and Target 2 is 2.1450. The current 14 day ATR is 0.200. This trade is very much against the long term monthly down trend and bear market in Copper that has been in place for some six years.”

Following a positive start last week the traded was closed on Monday (September 12) as it spiked down intra-day to just below the floor of the recent congestion zone, only to close the day positively at 2.1011. Subsequently, following good industrial news from China on Wednesday it has gone on to hit both Target 1 and Target 2 for what would have been a net gain of 576. Instead I had a net loss of 210.

The moral of this one is to always double check your positions; if I had doubled checked the Risk Reward ratio the trade would have remained open. Another entry in the trading journal and another reminder that the market is always right and the market will do what it will do.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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NZDUSD – Trendline Support and Tweezer Bottom

September 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

NZDUSD, Daily

The NZD has had a great 2016 so far and continues to look strong against the AUD and USD. The NZDUSD traded as low as 0.6328 back in January and since has rallied to its recent high on September 7 at 0.7484, a move of some 18%. The inevitable profit taking that was triggered by the Tweezer Top on September 8 and the subsequent move down to some long term support and Tweezer Bottom, tweaked my interest yesterday for a move to the LONG side. The support area around the confluence of the 50 DMA, 38.2 Fibonacci level and the long term monthly channel suggest evidence of further upside potential. The break and hold of the 20 DMA on yesterday’s weak US data confirmed the entry at 0.7280. Target 1, a little over the 14 Day ATR is at 0.7370 and Target 2 close to the recent high at 0.7450.

The Parabolic SAR remains negative as the pair trade below 0.7300 and any break of the 50 DMA and 38.2 Fibonacci level could move the pair lower. However, the RBNZ are expected to cut interest rates again before the year end following their 25 basis point cut (from 2.25% to 2.00%) in the Official Cash Rate last month. Governor Wheeler said at the time “…further policy easing may be required to ensure that inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” As the FED is widely expected to remain unmoved on rates next week the fundamentals remain positive for the Kiwi.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Macro Events & News for 09.16.2016

September 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China moved higher following on from gains on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. BoE and SNB may have left policy on hold yesterday, but at least the BoE kept the door open to another rate cut and the first rise on Japanese markets in 8 days will also have to do with position in Japan ahead of a long weekend and next week’s Fed and BoJ announcements. Japan is closed for a national holiday Monday and trading volumes were already lower than usual today. Indeed, U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red and already signal an end to yesterday’s move higher. Oil prices are also down on the day and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 43.55. Today’s European calendar is very quiet, with only French wages, Italian trade and Eurozone labour cost data.

FX Update: The dollar majors are near net unchanged after a quiet pre-Europe session in Asia. China, Honk Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia have all been closed for public holidays today, while Japan will be off on Monday. The holidays and the proximity of next week’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions have been keeping participants on the sidelines. There was some movement, most notably USD-JPY, which logged a three-day low at 101.73 before recouping back above 102.00. The pair has been trading sensitively to relative expectations of Fed and BoJ policy into next week’s dual policy meetings of the two. A flood of weak data out of the U.S. yesterday, including sub-forecast readings in retail sales and industrial output, and flat PPI, saw prospects for a Fed rate hike next week whittle further (down to a 49.7% probability on Thursday, from 58.5% a week earlier, according to Bloomberg), which saw the 2-year T-note yield fall nearly 3 bp to 0.73%. Elsewhere, EUR-USD continued to ply a narrow range in the mid 1.12s. AUD-USD inched out a three-day high of 0.7527, reflecting both recent outperformance in the domestic stock market and rising yields.

US Data Deluge: Yesterday’s US reports proved disappointing overall, led by weak August retail sales figures after modest downward revisions that trimmed our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% from 2.5%, though we still assume is a Q2 growth boost to 1.5% from 1.1%. The July business inventory data were stronger than expected and initial claims remained tight in the Labor Day week at 260k, hence providing some good news on the day, and the mining data within the August industrial production report revealed a fourth consecutive monthly rise that suggests a bottom for that embattled sector, despite the 0.4% headline IP drop. Yet, the Empire State and Philly Fed reports were weaker than expected which suggests that the inventory headwind continues with gusto, and we saw weakness in the August PPI report. A narrowing in the Q2 current account defict rounded out a massive data-blast that largely negated any chance of a policy tightening at next week’s FOMC meeting.

BoE and SNB on Hold: BoE to Buy Overseas Corporate Bonds and no real surprises from BoE and SNB. Both central banks keeping policy on hold. Unlike Draghi, the BoE may have sounded somewhat less pessimistic about the U.K.’s growth outlook post Brexit, but it still left the door open to another rate cut, depending on data. At the same time, the new corporate bond purchase program has yet to start and this week’s publication on the list of eligible assets has caused some stir, as it also includes overseas companies as long as they make a “material contribution to the U.K. economy.”

Main Macro Events Today

US CPI – August CPI is out today and expectations are to see a 0.1% (median 0.1%) headline increase with the core up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows July data which had the headline unchanged and the core up 0.1% on the month. The August PPI was released yesterday and featured a flat headline with a 0.1% core increase for the month.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on September Michigan Sentiment is out later and expectations are for the headline to climb to 90.5 (median 90.5) to cap the recent string of declines that had the headline falling to 89.8 in August from 90.0 in July and 93.5 in June. The already released IBD/TIPP Poll for the month fell to 46.7 from 48.4 in August and expectations are that the Consumer Confidence headline to fall to 98.0 from 101.1 in August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 09.16.2016

September 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        95.55—-95.05 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 25 pips, Target at the Buttom
EUR/USD     1.1280—-1.1210 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
GBP/USD     1.3285—-1.3185 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CHF     0.9755—-0.9685 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/JPY      102.70—-101.80    Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
AUD/USD     0.7570—-0.7470 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3210—-1.3070   Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GOLD 1326.00—1308.00 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 8 $, Target at the Top
Silver   19.20—18.80 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.20 $, Target at the Top
Oil   44.80—43.20 Sell at the Top,       Stop Loss 0.50 $,       Target at the Buttom

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EURGBP Hits Target 1 and BOE – No change

September 15, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURGBP, Daily

On Monday (September 12^th) I wrote “The EURGBP created a Hammer candle low on Tuesday (September 6) at 0.8332 from the recent high (August 12) at 0.8723. Two strong up days last week, through the 23.6 Fibonacci level and a touch of the 50 DMA and 38.2 Fib level spiked my interest on Friday. A close above the 0.8360 level on the Daily candle would generate a LONG position from here. Target 1 would be 0.8540 and Target 2 0.8624”

The trade hit Target 1 yesterday (September 14) for an 80 pip gain; this was the third of the three SHORT GBP positions to complete this week for a net gain of 375 pips.

The BOE,as widely anticipated made no change. Sterling is down by an average 0.3% on the day versus the G3 currencies, although off intraday lows. Despite the less pessimistic tone of the MPC minutes relative to August, policymakers stuck to forecasts for economic slowdown. The minutes noted that “a majority of members expect to support a further cut … at one of the MPC’s forthcoming meetings during the course of this year” — if, that is, the outlook at the November forecast round “is judged to be broadly consistent” with the August Inflation Report projections. The BoE are likely to remain on hold into 2017, seeing some sustainability in the recent economic revival and with the MPC likely to wait for the detailing of expected fiscal stimulus measures at the government’s mid-government budget review on November 23. Further out, there is risk of further easing measures, anticipating that the eventual commencement of exit negotiations with the EU will sharpen concerns about the near- to medium-term success of project Brexit.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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US Data Deluge – Weaker than expected

September 15, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, H4

U.S. August retail sales fell 0.3%, while ex-autos slid 0.1%. The unchanged reading in July was bumped up to 0.1% but June’s 0.8% was nudged down to 0.7%, for a wash. The 0.3% drop for the July ex-auto figure was revised lower to -0.4%, the 0.9% June figure revised to 0.8%. Sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials was flat from -0.1%. Motor vehicles and parts sales declined 0.9% after a 1.7% July jump (revised from 1.1%). Gas station sales fell 0.8%. Building materials dropped 1.4%, while furniture declined 0.7%. Miscellaneous sales crashed 2.4%. Health and personal care dipped 0.1%. Sporting goods slid another 1.4%. Non-store retailers saw a 0.3% slide. Electronics inched up 0.1%.

Today’s U.S. sentiment reports were weaker than expected, thanks to component weakness underlying the divergent headline moves. We saw a Philly Fed pop to a 19-month high of 12.8 in September from 2.0 in August and -2.9 in July that left a big rise from the 3-year low of -10.2 last December. Yet, component weakness after an already-weak August performance left an ISM-adjusted drop to 44.9 from 47.2 in August and 51.3 in July, hence leaving only a modest rise from the 44.1 expansion-low in April. The Empire State headline rose to -1.99 after falling to -4.21 in August from 0.55 in July and 6.01 in June, but the component data for that report were also weak, and the ISM-adjusted measure fell to an 8-month low of 45.1 from 50.2 in August, 48.8 in July and 50.0 in June. We saw expansion-lows in January of -19.37 for the headline and 43.4 for the ISM-adjusted measure. For later month-surveys, we expect a Richmond Fed rise to -2.0 from -11.0, a Dallas Fed bounce to -2.0 from -6.2, a Chicago PMI rise to 53.5 from 51.4, an ISM rise to 50.0 from 49.4, and an ISM-NMI rise to 53.5 from 51.4, versus a 53.1 two-year low in May. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to fall to the 49 expansion-low seen in January and February and previously in October of 2012, from the 50 average in August, and previously in May and June. We saw a 12-month high of 52 in July that was also seen in March.

Fed funds futures are higher on the back of rather tepid data that further reduced the odds for a Fed tightening next week. The data-dependent FOMC will be hard pressed to make a credible case for a hike given the weakness in August retail sales and industrial production, as well as the poor September sentiment reports (and especially in the component readings) and the subdued inflation readings. With the Fed’s policy decision less than a week away, implied rates are suggesting only about an 18% chance for a rate increase. The probability had risen to over 60% after the hawkish tilt from Fed Chair Yellen and especially VC Fischer back in August at the Jackson Hole central banker meeting, and following a less than dovish ECB stance last Thursday. The recent market volatility can’t give the FOMC much footing either. We’ve thought the December13, 14 FOMC was the better bet all along due to the potential instability from the October 14 money market reform deadline, and the November 8 elections.

EURUSD tracks sideways between 1.1250 – 1.1215, Cable trades both sides of 1.3200 and USDJPY ticks higher to 102.60.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Macro Events & News for 09.15.2016

September 15, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japanese equities remaining under pressure amid a stronger Yen and concerns that a BoJ move further into negative territory would hit earnings. Uncertainty about the global interest rate outlook and volatility in energy prices continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Oil prices are off lows and up from yesterday but the front end Nymex future is still firmly below USD 44 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are moving higher, but U.K. futures are in the red ahead of today’s BoE meeting. The central bank is widely expected to keep policy on hold, but markets will be sensitive to any comments that could signal that the BoE is backing off from the prospect of yet another cut this year. The SNB is also seen on hold as the central bank continues to rely on forex intervention rather than further easing to keep the currency under control, while eying developments in the Eurozone carefully. The economic calendar has U.K. retail sales, as well as the final reading for Eurozone August HICP inflation and EMU trade data.

New Zealand & Australia mixed news: Australia’s August employment data unveiled a big miss to the downside with a fall of 3,900 jobs (seasonally adjusted) against expectations of a rise of 15,000.The breakup of the data was slightly more encouraging at the margins, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) saying that full-time jobs rose 11,500 while part-time jobs fell 15,400.Showing the difficulty in reading the data the unemployment rate dipped to 5.6% from 5.7% previously. That’s a result of the fall in participation rate, the number of people who say they are in the workforce, from 64.9% to 64.7%. Meanwhile, New Zealand Q2 GDP rose 0.9% q/q and Q1 was revised up to 0.9% q/q from 0.7%. USDAUD remains well below 0.7500 at 0.7470 and USDNZD below 0.7300 at 0.7268.

A Global Advisor preview of the Fed and BoJ next week reportedly suggests that there has been little in the U.S. data of late to alter the bias toward a December Fed rate hike. The BoJ is seen targeting lowering 3-5 year rates and reshaping the QQN purchase plan to afford more flexibility in asset purchases, while likely holding off on another rate cut. Meanwhile, equities are renewing gains and yields are rolling lower as some recent volatility in the asset markets cools off.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Rate Announcement – The BoE meets on policy for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s big policy announcement. Market participants will be eager for details of a reduction in the corporate bond buying programme that Governor Carney announced, off the cuff, during a parliamentary testimony last week.

US Retail Sales – August retail sales data is out today and should reveal a flat headline with ex-autos up 0.3% on the month. This follows July data which had the headline unchanged as well and the ex-autos component down 0.3%. Apart from the risks posed by the decline in vehicle sales, we also saw continued tepid growth for chain stores and gasoline prices are seen down for August

SNB Rate Decision – With the ECB on hold and reluctant to add more stimulus, which has underpinned the EUR, and with Swiss growth having surprised on the upside, the central bank is widely expected to keep policy on hold. Officials will keep the door to another rate cut open while they monitor Eurozone growth indicators, which have taken a downturn in August. However, with pension funds and insurance companies already feeling the strain from the negative interest rate environment, and ECB growth forecasts remaining largely unchanged, the SNB will want to keep its powder dry for now and continue to rely on direct intervention to keep the currency under control.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”