UK Pre Brexit Deficit Widens

July 8, 2016 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD, Weekly

UK trade deficit widened to GBP 2.3 bln in May data, out from the GBP 1.3 bln deficit since in May last year. The goods deficit widened by GBP 500 mln to GBP 9.9 bln, with exports falling by GBP 2.1 bln while imports declining by GBP 1.6 bln. That was the biggest goods deficit for the month of May on record, according to the ONS stats office. The services surplus rose to GBP 7.6 bln.

The impact of the recent sharp decline in the pound will be mixed to negative, benefitting exporters but also pushing up costs of imported components for many. The UK imports far more goods than it exports. Goods such as cars will become more expensive to the UK consumer, with 85% of demand is met by imported cars while domestic manufacturers rely heavily on imported parts. The trade deficit has acted a drag on UK economic growth, which fell to 0.4% in the first three months of this year, but a far more significant impact comes from the poor performance of the UK’s foreign investments.

The pound is trading softer in London trade, with Cable having ebbed to the low 1.2900s and EURGBP having lifted above 0.8570. Signs of weakening UK business and consumer sentiment, and an ebb in economic activity are keeping a lid on the pound. A survey of UK consumer confidence by Gfk, conducted after the Brexit vote (between June-30 to July-5), dove to -9 from -1, which is the sharpest drop in the data series since 1994. Think tank NIESR said yesterday that it estimates UK GDP went negative in June after stagnating in May. Footfall on high street shops is down and car sales and property market transactions are also down. There are bright spots, with exporters such as Burberry, a high-end fashion retailer, likely to benefit from the weaker pound, while a trade deal with India may happen within a year (a deal between the EU and India has been held for years by the former’s concerns about wine and car trade). But it’s unlikely the good-news stories will offset the probability that the UK ends up with a net-worse trade deal with the EU, given the terms the UK wants. The reason the pound is trading nearly 12-14% lower is because markets are discounting a shock to the UK economy’s terms of trade.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDNZD & GBPJPY both hit Target 1

July 8, 2016 Forex Analysis

AUDNZD, Daily

On Monday I looked ahead for a falling AUDNZD rate as news data and momentum continued to weigh on the pair. I wrote “A clear, breach and break of 1.0450 level on the Daily time frame will generate a SELL position with Target 1 1.0340 and Target 2 at 1.0173”.

In a highly volatile week my entry at 1.0450 was triggered on Tuesday (July 5th) and Target 1 at 1.0340 was reached this morning (July 8^th). The Kiwi has had a strong week and continues today, Target 2 at 1.0173 remains the next level.

The GBPJPY post from Tuesday suggested that at 133.00 the pair could easily fall to 131.50 which it duly did in the following hours. As pressure on sterling continues and the flight to quality and safe havens rolls on Target 2 at 128.5 and 125.60 are still in play. As I stated on Tuesday “as we move lower these targets become more difficult to achieve, however, momentum is to the downside and although technically oversold, never underestimate the power of fear and greed”.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

USDCAD Hit Target 1

July 8, 2016 Forex Analysis

USDCAD, 240 min

I wrote on USDCAD yesterday saying that it had created a daily shooting star in Wednesday’s trading and said that I expected the pair to break below the support. The idea was to look for sell signals after rallies if price breaks below 1.2940.My targets were: 1.2905 (T1) and 1.2860 (T2). The pair broke below the support and provided a sell signal near 1.2940 as it rallied back to the level. This lead the market lower well beyond my target one and all the way to 1.2876 before it rallied massively on the back of EIA oil reserve report causing the price of WTI crude to drop by over three dollars from $48 to $44.90. The report rekindled bearish supply-demand imbalance concerns. Crude is now trading just below the $45.60 – $45.80 area that used to support price and is worth keeping an eye on. Oil looks technically bearish with next minor support in crude is at $44.76 while the next daily support area can be found at $42.50 – $43.00. This should support USDCAD and provide further push higher in the pair.

Even though the USDCAD is trading now near the upper daily Bollinger Bands the two higher highs in the daily chart from July 4^th and yesterday (together with price of oil being bearish) are indicating the price has upside momentum and could mean that the pair pushes higher towards the June 27^th highs at 1.3120. The nearest minor support can be found around 1.3000 (next at 1.2985) while nearest minor resistance levels in USDCAD is at 1.3020 while 1.3395 – 1.3108 is a more significant resistance area. July 6^th high at 1.3056 is another level to pay attention to. Today’s NFP announcement could bring volatility and should the number deviate strongly from expectations then supports and resistances are more likely to be broken with higher volatility.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

German Trade Data worse than expected

July 8, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, Daily

Germany posted a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of EUR 22.1 bln in May, down from EUR 24.1 bln in the previous month, as exports dropped -1.8% m/m, after rising just 0.1% m/m in April. Imports rose a modest 0.1% m/m after falling -0.3% m/m in the previous month. The three months accumulated trend rate still improved thanks to the strong April number, but the fall back in exports, coupled with weak production and orders data for May confirms concerns about a marked slowdown in growth in the second quarter of the year. Hopes were for a rebound in the second half, but the Brexit referendum will also hit Germany and the Eurozone as a whole so that the overall growth outlook is looking bleaker for the whole of Europe now.

Moody’s have also cut UK and Eurozone growth prospects due to the shock to confidence following the Brexit vote for both areas and the political contagion that could spread.

UK GDP

2016 – down to 1.5% from 1.8%
2017 – down significantly to 1.2% from 2.1%

Eurozone GDP

2016 – down to 1.5% from 1.7%
2017 – down to 1.3% from 1.6%

EURUSD remains range bound prior to the NFP later today around the 1.1075 – 1.1100 zone.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 07.08.2016

July 8, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly lower, following on from a weak close on Wall Street as a slump in oil prices in the wake of the EIA inventory report hit confidence. Prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 46 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures signal further pressure on equity markets. This should see Bund and Gilt futures recover some of yesterday’s losses going into today’s U.S. jobs report where we expect a bounce in payroll growth to between 160k and 210K (median 178K). Brexit and Italian bank problems remain the focus in Europe. U.K. consumer confidence plunged sharply following the Brexit referendum, according to GfK data, which saw the core index plunging to -90 in a survey conducted June 30-July 5, from -1 ahead of the referendum. Still to come Germany and the U.K. publish trade data for May and France has production numbers.

US Data Reports: Signaled a tightening labor market as we approach today’s jobs report where we expect a bounce in payroll growth. We saw a 16k initial claims drop to a lean 254k in the first week of July that sits barely above the 42-year low of 248k from the April BLS survey week, and we expect a similarly lean July BLS survey week reading after an assumed bounce next week to 265k, given our read of the auto retooling distortions. We also saw a firm 172k June ADP rise, even though these figures didn’t benefit from the 35k Verizon strike reversal that will lift payrolls, and the as-reported ADP figures have run 18k per month weaker than private payrolls since 2012.

Brexit Aftermath: Think tank NIESR said UK GDP went negative in June after stagnating in May, though a strong April carried an overall estimated growth of +0.6% in Q2. The group stated that “when April drops out of the three-month calculation we should see a quick deterioration of growth, especially if the estimated contraction in June persists or accelerates in July or beyond.” All the signs suggest that activity is diminishing at an accelerated rate since the June 23 referendum. Timely surveys by YouGov CEBR found both business and consumer confidence have dropped sharply since the Brexit vote. There have been bright spots, however, with exporters such as Burberry, a high-end fashion retailer, likely to benefit from the weaker pound, while a trade deal with India may happen within a year (a deal between the EU and India has been held for years by the former’s concerns about wine and car trade). The good news stories so far don’t look likely to offset the possibility that the UK ends up with a net worse trade deal with the EU.

Canada’s Ivey PMI improved: It registered 51.7 in June up from 49.4 in May. The prices index fell to 59.7 in June from 63.1. The pull-back in May left the Ivey at the weakest level of the year, and was below the most recent foray into contractionary (sub-50) territory in December of 2015 that saw the index fall to 49.9. The decline in May was not shocking given the Fort McMurray fires during the month, and the concerns about the outlook for the region and the impact of stopped oil production on the national economy. The move back above 50 in June is consistent with some improvement in activity during the month as a whole, although wildfire disruptions persisted early in the month.

Main Macro Events Today

US Nonfarm payrolls June employment data is out today and could reveal a possible 210k (median 178k) headline after last months disappointing 38k and only 123k in April. We expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.7% for a second month. The balance of risk is firmly to the upside.

Japan’s policy Troika The MoF, FSA and BoJ will meet today to discuss the financial markets post-Brexit and concurrent strength of the yen that could relegate Japan’s economy back into recession, according to a Reuters report. Former Fed Chairman Bernanke will be meeting next week with PM Abe and BoJ’s Kuroda, no doubt to discuss helicopter maintenance and NIRP: “The meetings underscore the concern government officials have about damage that the recent market rout, triggered by the Brexit vote, could inflict on Japan’s fragile economic recovery. The last time they met was on June 25, shortly after Britain voted to leave the European Union, a decision that jolted financial markets and boosted investors’ demand for the safe-haven yen JPY. Bernanke is expected to discuss Brexit and the BOJ’s negative interest rate policy with Abe and Kuroda, the official said. The BOJ governor has repeatedly denied that the BOJ would adopt such a policy (helicopter money), however, saying it is as an ‘impossible’ option under current law separating the government’s role in fiscal policy from the BOJ’s in monetary policy.”

Canada Employment We expect employment, also due today, to rise 10.0k in June after the 13.8k gain in May. May saw a strong boost from Census hiring (public admin +19.4k), which should unwind in June. And the wildfires persisted into June, which could trim resource and related jobs. But the May report had a surprisingly firm tone even when the temporary factors are accounted for, suggesting the job market was resilient, which could have carried into June. We expect the unemployment rate to tick higher to 7.0% in June from 6.9% in April that came on the heels of back to back 7.1% readings in March and April. Hours worked are expected to nudge 0.1% higher (m/m) in June after the 0.2% gain in May.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 07.07.2016

July 7, 2016 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Trading Signals For 07.07.2016

#UDSX        96.60—-95.80    Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 30 pips
EUR/USD     1.1140—-1.1020      Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 40 pips
GBP/USD     1.3000—-1.2800    Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 40 pips
USD/CHF     0.9790—-0.9720    Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 30 pips
USD/JPY      102.05—-100.55    Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 40 pips
AUD/USD     0.7555—-0.7445    Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 40 pips
USD/CAD     1.3050—-1.2920 Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 40 pips
GOLD 1375.00—1353.00   Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 10 $,     Target at the Buttom
Silver   20.40—19.70 Sell at the Top,     Stop Loss 0.30 $,       Target at the Buttom
Oil       48.70—46.00 Buy at the Buttom,    Sell at the Top,            Stop Loss 0.50 $

Keywords:Forex Trading Signals,Forex Trading Strategy,Forex Trading System,Free Forex Analysis,Forex Forecast

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Central Banks Squeezing Sovereign Debt

July 7, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, H4

Central banks are squeezing sovereign debt according to a WSJ article, “A buying spree by central banks is reducing the availability of government debt for other buyers and intensifying the bidding wars that break out when investors get jittery, driving prices higher and yields lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a record low Wednesday. The squeeze could get worse if central banks in Japan and Europe decide, as expected, to step up their stimulus efforts following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. The world is running out of positive-yielding safe-haven bonds, among those feeling the worst pinch are pension funds and life insurance firms in Japan, Europe and the U.S. Those investors now face tougher competition for the high-grade, long-term bonds they need to match their long-term liabilities.” Even central banks are having trouble finding needed bonds as yield curves turn deeply negative, with nearly half of German bonds ineligible for repurchase below the ECB’s -0.4% depo rate.

Two positive US data points add to the NFP melting pot for tomorrow:

US initial jobless claims fell 16k to 254k in the July 2 week, more than unwinding the 12k bounce to 270k in the last week of June (revised from 268k). The 4-week moving average dipped to 264.75k from 267.25k (revised fro 266.75k). Continuing claims dropped 44k to 2,124k, from a revised 29k increase to 2,168k (revised from 2,120k). The BLS said no special factors impacted, however 6 states did estimate claims. And there are usually some difficulties in seasonal adjusting around holidays too. The claims data continue to suggest a healthy employment report for June.

The 172k June ADP rise nearly matched our estimate, though it undershot our 200k private nonfarm payroll estimate with a 210k total payroll gain, after a slight trimming in the 168k May ADP rise to 168k (was 173k) that narrowed the gap to the 38k private payroll rise in that month. We had expected an undershoot given the impact of strikes and weather on the BLS data that doesn’t impact ADP. The “as reported” ADP figures have run 18k/month weaker than private payrolls since the October 2012 methodology change. Yet, we’ve seen recent ADP overshoots of 148k in May, 26k in April and 33k in March, after undershoots of as much as 122k in four of the prior five months. The ADP as-reported average absolute error since the Moody’s methodology change is 50k, versus a 45k average absolute error over this period for the survey median.

EURUSD moved down marginally to 1.1070, GBPUSD gave up the 130.00 handle and USDJPY moved north of 101.10.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

NFP Friday: Are we in for another surprise!

July 7, 2016 Forex Analysis

Tomorrow Friday 8^th July is one of the most important days in July from traders’ perspective. Both institutional and retail traders alike globally are focussing on the US June Non-Farm Payroll report (at 12:30 pm GMT) after the May payroll growth number came in surprisingly low at 38.000 jobs (73.000 when adjusted for Verizon strike). Now the question is whether this number was an outlier or a real indication of the US jobs market slowing down significantly.

We assume that it is likely that the June number was an outlier. As the three month average before the horrendous May reading was 181.000 analyst expectations for the July number range from 160.000 to 210.000 we believe the June payroll increase to be in between these forecasts. The consensus is expecting 178.000 new jobs. The ADP employment number published today (172.000) indicates that this number isn’t probably too far from the actual release tomorrow. However, the NFP number has surprised from time to time as we know.

If the actual number deviates strongly from the expectations market volatility usually increases and could create trading opportunities or even an intraday trend after the initial and often unpredictable see sawing settles down. We do not recommend holding geared positions into the event or taking geared positions during the initial volatility that arises from the announcement. However, we are looking for trading signals 20 to 30 minutes after the announcement. We will keep you updated via the analysis.hotforex.com analysis page and my Facebook page (HotForex Janne Muta) with some live commentary on the results and market action.

Come and join us tomorrow around 12:30 pm GMT. If the number differs strongly from analyst expectation tomorrow could be an interesting and exciting day!

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Daily Shooting Star in USDCAD

July 7, 2016 Forex Analysis

USDCAD, 240 min

USDCAD created a daily shooting in yesterday’s trading and is now trading at support at 1.2943. The pair is trading between 4h moving averages (30 and 50 SMA). The 15 min chart shows a series of lower high values in the high values over the last two hours. Only one of the recent candles at the time of writing has tried to challenge this pattern. This suggests that market is not trying turn higher from this support. Nearest resistance is at 1.2940 (next at 1.2930) while the nearest support is at 1.2940 (next at 1.2930).

The 4h Stochastics are oversold indicating that the market could rally before breaking lower. However, this would need to be confirmed by the price action. With the daily shooting star candle created in yesterday’s trading I’m preparing for this market to break lower rather than rallying higher first. If price breaks below 1.2940, I looking for sell signals after rallies with targets as follows: 1.2905 (T1) and 1.2860 (T2). Should the market however rally higher first I would be looking for sell signals at 1.3017 – 1.3030 sell area. If this was the case my targets are higher as follows: 1.2975 (T1) and 1.2340 (T2).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 07.07.2016

July 7, 2016 Forex Analysis

FORX News Today

European Outlook: Wall Street managed to close higher, Asian markets are mixed, with Japan still under pressure, but Hang Seng and ASX 200 moving higher, despite S&P cutting Australia’s credit rating. FTSE 100 futures are also up and the DAX seem to be set for opening losses, with positive leads from Wall Street helping European markets to finally bottom out. Brexit will remain a major risk factor though not just for the U.K. and the Eurozone is also struggling to cope with the fallout as Italy’s banking sector remains in focus. The European calendar has May production data from the U.K., which will be too backward looking to change the outlook. Switzerland has June inflation data, expected to fall to -0.5% y/y from -0.4% y/y.

FOMC Minutes: Almost all officials saw increased uncertainty due to the “surprisingly weak” May jobs report, though there were mixed views on what the data were implying. The minutes showed some thought the slowing understated the pace of job growth, while some worried it might signal a broader slowdown. Many were reluctant to change their overall outlook materially on that one data release. Officials also thought it was prudent to wait for the outcome of the UK referendum, while there was some concern noted over China’s FX policy. Some members argued against delaying a rate hike, which was the eventual outcome of course, and doubted whether conditions would improve sufficiently to warrant a hike. Indeed, a “couple of members” wanted more evidence that economic growth was “strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand and that inflation was moving closer to 2%.” Others argued against waiting too long to hike rates again. The minutes continue to underscore the increasingly cautious stance of the FOMC.

Brexit Aftermath: Another THREE property funds suspend redemptions; this follows the big three of M&G, Standard Life and Avia earlier in the week, a clear trend in danger of snowballing. The whole UK commercial property fund sector worth 25bln GBP is grinding to a halt. This will have potential ripples through to further foreign capital withdrawals and other sectors of the property market. Additionally footfall in UK shops is down, there has been a sharp drop in both business and consumer confidence (as gauged by post-June 23 surveys by YouGov CEBR), house prices look to be coming under pressure, and there are signs of significant slowing in automobile sales. It has become clear that the UK “independence” will likely come at a cost of a permanent downward shock to its terms of trade as the EU has made it quite clear that the UK won’t be able to have unfettered access to the single market on the terms it seeks. On the external front, bank shares have been hit hard across Europe and there are particularly concerns about the Italian banks. Politically, the EU itself may be facing an existential threat. Against this backdrop, sterling is trading nearly 14% below the highs seen on June 23, and the FTSE 250 (which is a better gauge on the UK economy than the FTSE 100) is down 9.7% while Gilt yields are at record lows. More of the same looks likely.

German production slump points to weak Q2. German production slumped -1.3% m/m in May. Much more than anticipated and led by sharp declines in capital goods and durable consumer goods production. Both were strong in April, so this is somewhat of a correction, but nevertheless, the sharp slump, coupled with the fact that manufacturing orders also decline in May suggests weakness ahead. .hat growth slowed down in the second quarter was widely expected, but hopes were for a rebound in the second half of the year and while confidence indicators seemed to back this view, the Brexit fallout may mean that may not materialise as uncertainty about the outlook will mean caution and reduced investment, also in the Eurozone.

Main Macro Events Today

US Weekly Claims US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of July 2 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 270k (median 270k) from 268k last week. Claims should set a 267k average in July from 276k in May and 259k in April. As we move through auto retooling season claims are typically more volatile and we expect this to continue to be the case despite an apparent shift towards an earlier start to auto retooling.

Canada Ivey PMI We expect the Ivey, due today, to improve to 51.0 in June from 49.4 in May. The pull-back in May left the Ivey at the weakest level of the year, and was below the most recent foray into contractionary (sub-50) territory in December of 2015 that saw the index fall to 49.9. But while the magnitude of the decline in May was unexpected, it was not shocking given the Fort McMurray fires during the month, and the concerns about the outlook for the region and the impact of stopped oil production on the national economy.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”