Free Forex Trading Signals 05.17.2016

May 17, 2016 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Trading Signals 05.17.2016

#UDSX       94.80—-94.30     Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips,    Target at the Top
EUR/USD     1.1360—-1.1280 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Buttom
GBP/USD     1.4460—-1.4300 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Buttom
USD/CHF     0.9810—-0.9730 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
USD/JPY      109.50—-108.20 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
AUD/USD     0.7340—-0.7230 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 30 pips,    Target at the Buttom
USD/CAD     1.3000—-1.2830 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
GOLD      1284.00—1266.00 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 6 $,           Target at the Buttom
Silver     17.50—17.00     Buy at the buttom,   Stop Loss 0.20 $,      Target at the Top
Oil          48.40—46.60     Sell at the Top,      Stop Loss 0.60 $,    Target at the Buttom

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USDZAR – Hits Target 1 & remains interesting

May 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

USDZAR, Daily

Last Tuesday (May 10^th) I posted “The USDZAR broke some key levels yesterday and looks to be in a bullish up move:

Last week it rallied to the 23.6 Fib level and the psychological round number at 15.0000.
It finally closed above 15.0000 yesterday having reached the level in the three previous trading sessions but was unable to breach the level. So we have had a fairly typical, reach, breach and broken pattern.
Yesterday’s close (15.1650) was also at a key level, which had previously been support, during February and March, and had turned to resistance for April. A close today over this level indicates strength for this pair.

I will be looking for Target 1 area around 15.5000 – 15.5380 and Target 2 around 16.0000 – 16.3000”

At the time the pair was trading at 15.2322 it closed the day below the important 15.1650 level and traded as low as 14.8883 on Thursday. However, following the strong US retail sales and sentiment data on Friday the pair rallied into the close and earlier today the trade reached its Target 1 for a net gain of over 300 pips.

Today’s US calendar is fairly uneventful. The May Empire State report headlines. We expect a dip to 7.0 after surging about 9 points to 9.6 in April. The May NAHB housing market index is seen improving to 59 from 58.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

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AUDUSD – Target 2 Hit after US data Friday

May 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD, H4

On May 6^th I posted “Technically we now have Daily support and downside Target 1 at 0.7330 – the 50% Fib level, which also coincides with the Weekly retracement levels. Further down we have 200 DMA, support and Target 2 at 0.7260.”

This trade has now achieved both Target 1 and Target 2 within the week following the strong US data on Friday for a net gain of 110 pips. The AUD is heavily influenced by data from China and the weak news over the weekend has pushed the AUDUSD below the 200 DMA and 0.7260 again, only to recover to 0.7290 this morning.

Chinese retail sales and industrial production underperformed in April with annual sales sliding to a 10.1% y/y pace last month, versus 10.5% y/y in March. Slippage was relatively broad-based, with autos tumbling to a 5.1% y/y rate, less than half of the 12.3% y/y from March. Petroleum declined to -3.8% y/y from 0.3% y/y. Industrial production dropped to a 6.0% y/y clip compared to 6.8% y/y thanks to weakness in mining, high energy consumption, and seasonal factors. Renewed signs of slowing in these key indicators could revive the markets’ fears over the economy that dominated at the start of the year, especially as authorities have been aggressively adding to stimulus measures.

Having achieved both T1 and T2 this trade is now closed, however, the pair remains bearish and the Monthly chart shows support at 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

The Economic Week Ahead for 05.16.2016

May 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: It’s a busy and important week of data and events, April CPI (Tuesday) could be the key variable for near-term market direction as it is a crucial input for the policy outlook. Inflation has been one of the major disappointments for Committee members. We’re forecasting a 0.4% climb in April, after a 0.1% March gain, with the core doubling up with a 0.2% increase from the prior 0.1%. The May NAHB housing market index (Monday), seen improving to 59 from 58 over the prior 3 months. April housing starts (Tuesday) should rise to 1.120 mln from 1.089 mln, continuing the choppy monthly pattern. Building permits should increase too, not having posted a gain since November. Existing home sales for April (Friday) are forecast rising to a 5.40 mln clip, extending the 5.1% rebound to 5.330 mln in March. Industrial production release (Tuesday) which should post a 0.2% rebound after tumbling 0.6% in March, with capacity utilization rising to 74.9% from 74.8%. The Empire State index (Monday) is expected to dip to 7.0 in May after surging nearly 9 points to 9.6 in April, but this would be only the 3rd positive number (expansionary territory) since last July. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should bounce to 5.0 in April after dropping back below zero to -1.6 in March. The FOMC minutes to the April 26, 27 (Wednesday) policy meeting will be interesting, though they will be dated following the data reports earlier this month on employment, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing, as well as Fedspeak.

Canada: Data reports are sparse, but important for the outlook. Manufacturing (Tuesday) is expected to plunge 2.0% in March after the 3.0% drop in February. Wholesale shipments (Thursday) are seen falling 0.5% in March after the 2.2% tumble in February. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to fall 0.3% in March after the 0.4% gain in February. The ex-auto sales aggregate is projected to decline 0.2% after an 0.2% rise. CPI (Friday) is projected to gain 0.5% m/m in April after the 0.6% rise in March. April existing home sales are due on Monday, and we expect annual sales growth to slow to a 10.0% rate from the 12.2% pace in March. The Bank of Canada’s twice yearly Review is published Monday.

Europe: Monday is a public holiday in many parts of Europe and the data calendar only starts in earnest on Tuesday with Eurozone trade numbers for March, which will be followed by current account data on Wednesday. Both should show solid surpluses. Final Eurozone CPI data for April, (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at -0.2%. The central bank minutes for the ECB’s April meeting (Thursday).

UK: The calendar brings April inflation data (Tuesday), April CPI is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. Monthly labour reports covering March and April (Wednesday), and April retail sales (Thursday). The BoE’s warnings of Brexit consequences last week (in its quarterly Inflation Report) went down like a balloon full of euro coins with “Leave” supporters, but sterling markets remained none too perturbed.

China: China released retail sales and industrial production over the weekend, and both disappointed, which could revive fears over the economy.

Japan: April PPI (Monday) is expected to inch up to -3.6% from -3.8%. Revised March industrial production (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 3.6%, while on Wednesday 1st preliminary Q1 GDP is forecast to have risen 0.5% q/q from the prior -1.1% outcome. March machine orders (Thursday) should be down 1.0% versus the 9.2% drop in February. Also, the March all-industry index (Thursday) is expected to bounce 0.1% m/m from -1.2% previously.

Australia: The minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting (Tuesday) could be an interesting read given the surprise decision to cut rates 0.25% to 1.75%. “Unexpectedly low” inflation data in Q1 was the trigger. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle speaks (Wednesday) on “Developments in Global FX Markets and Challenges in Currency Internationalisation from an Australian Perspective.” Employment (Thursday) is expected to gain 5.0k in April after the 26.1k rise in March. The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 5.8% from 5.7% in March. The wage cost index (Wednesday) is expected to grow 0.4% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q4.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals 05.16.2016

May 16, 2016 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Trading Signals 05.16.2016

#UDSX       94.95—-94.25     Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips,    Target at the Top
EUR/USD     1.1350—-1.1260 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Buttom
GBP/USD     1.4430—-1.4320 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Buttom
USD/CHF     0.9780—-0.9710 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
USD/JPY      109.20—-108.20 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
AUD/USD     0.7310—-0.7230 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 30 pips,    Target at the Buttom
USD/CAD     1.3000—-1.2900 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips,    Target at the Top
GOLD      1279.00—1265.00 Sell at the Top, Stop Loss 5 $,           Target at the Buttom
Silver     17.25—16.85     Sell at the Top,        Stop Loss 0.15 $,      Target at the Buttom
Oil          46.50—45.70     Sell at the Top,      Stop Loss 0.50 $,    Target at the Buttom

Keywords:Forex Trading Signals,Forex Trading Strategy,Forex Trading System,Free Forex Analysis,

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US Consumer Sentiment – A Big Beat

May 13, 2016 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD, Daily

US preliminary May consumer sentiment jumped 6.8 points to 95.8, much stronger than expected, after dipping 2 points to 89.0 in April. It is the highest since last June, and recently has been high as 98.1, reached in January 2015 (which was the best in over a decade). The current conditions index rose to 108.6 from 106.7. The expectations index climbed almost 10 points to 87.5 from 77.6, and is the biggest increase since 2006. The 12-month inflation gauge slid to 2.5% from 2.8%, while the 5-year index sped up slightly to 2.6% from 2.5%.

The Michigan sentiment bounce to a 95.8 eleven-month high reversed a four-month string of declines to 89.0 in April from 92.6 in December, as the index rises well above the 87.2 ten-month low in September but below the 98.1 cycle-high in January of 2015 that marked the strongest reading since January of 2004. The pattern of upward revisions in “final” Michigan sentiment reports has dissipated, given boosts in just four of the last ten months, and an average revision in 2016 of zero. We saw prior average boosts of 0.4 in 2015, 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. We will assume a 95.8 “final” print for May. For other May measures, the IBD/TIPP index rose to 48.7 from 46.3, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index slipped to 41.7 in the second week of May from 42.0 in the prior week and a 43.0 average in April, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. We expect a consumer confidence rise to 95.0 from 94.2 in April but a higher 96.1 in March, versus a 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015.

More positive news for the USD today, USDIndex rallies to a two week high at 94.7 and GBPUSD falls to three week low at 1.4361.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

US Retail Sales beats estimates, PPI inline

May 13, 2016 Forex Analysis

USDJPY, H1

US retail sales jumped 1.3% in April, and were up 0.8% excluding autos, much better than expected following a 0.3% headline decline in March, with the ex-auto component revised up to 0.4% from 0.2%. Excluding autos, gas, and building materials, sales climbed 0.8% versus a 0.1% gain previously (revised from flat). Auto sales bounced 3.2% to erase the 3.2% drop previously. Gasoline station sales increased 2.2% with back-to-back gains unwinding the 5.2% February decline. Non-store retailers increased 2.1%. Miscellaneous sales were up 1.5%. Clothing sales rebounded 1.0%. Health and personal care continued to post strong gains for a 3rd straight month, up 0.9% versus 1.3% previously.

US April final demand PPI increased 0.2% with the core up 0.1%, following March declines of 0.1% for both. On an annual basis, producer prices were flat (0.0%) versus -0.1% y/y previously, with the ex-food and energy component expanding 0.9% y/y after the 1.0% y/y gain in March. Inflation in the goods sector grew 0.2% in April after an identical 0.2% gain in March, with energy up 0.2% from 1.8% previously. Food prices fell -0.3% after the -0.9% decline in March. Inflation in the services sector rose 0.1% after an 0.2% decline.

Two good pieces of news for the US economy, (particularly the retail figure). The USD and US stock market futures both up

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Euro area Q1 GDP revised down

May 13, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, H1

Eurozone Q1 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q reported initially. Still a solid acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q4 last year, but it seems stronger than expected German growth failed to compensate for the modest acceleration in Italy, the weaker than expected number in Portugal and the ongoing contraction in Greece. In any case, while the earlier timing of Easter may have helped Q1 growth along, indicators already point to a slowdown ahead and the balance of risks going ahead remains firmly tilted to the downside. For now the ECB is on hold and focused on implementing the measures already announced, but at the same time officials are keeping the door to further easing wide open.

Although a revision downwards it was a relatively good figure, with only Greece and Latvia not growing, EURUSD ticked up to the 1.1350 area, but down from yesterdays 1.1400 this morning.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

GBPCAD – Looking Bearish as Oil grinds higher

May 13, 2016 Forex Analysis

GBPCAD, Daily

The BoE left inflation forecasts near unchanged and maintained that the next policy move would likely be a tightening. It also emphasized that economic and financial indicators are likely to be less informative than usual due to Brexit uncertainties. It seems that both sterling markets and the BoE are in a wait-and-see mode. Much will depend on the evoluation of polling outcomes as the Jun-23 referendum draws nearer. The FT Brexit poll tracker currently has 46% for “Remain” and 43% for “Leave,” while Ladbroke betting odds show 71% for the UK to remain in the EU.

The press conference was even more interesting than usual with the normally unflappable Mr Carney seemingly somewhat stressed by the constant referrals to Brexit. He was pushed by the BBC correspondent and he finally (some in the leave camp say it was planned) uttered the “R” word. Recession. In his defence the BoE have two mandates that of fiscal prudence and secondly of transparency. If the UK did tip in to negative growth (and even recession) in the second half of 2016 and he had not expressed the BOE’s view prior to the Referendum, then he (they) would have been accused of poor judgement.

This glut of data surrounding sterling yesterday and the inevitable noise that comes with it lead me to take a closer look at the GBP pairs on yesterdays close. GBPCAD was the pair on the daily chart that looked most interesting:

The Canadian oil sands fires have not damaged production as much as initially thought and the facilities will be back sooner than anticipated, the rally in the oil price keeps grinding higher, for now.

Break of the upper Bollinger band not sustained,
Long tail on Tuesdays candle and break of the 50 DMA at close on Wednesday from overbought levels
Thursday close below the 50 DMA and no direction from associated with volatile Oil price, triggered an entry 1.8562
Daily Oil chart remains bullish positive for CAD
Higher time frame Monthly chart remains bearish
Target 1 – (Daily ATR) – 1.8420 also coincides with 20 DMA.
Target 2 – (Recent low and close to lower Bollinger band) – 1.81300

The recent down trend appears to be weakening so probability of Target 2 lower than normal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 05.13.2016

May 13, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Risk aversion is picking up, with stock markets continuing to head south in Asia, oil prices down and save haven assets rising. The EUR is little changed against the dollar. However, European bond futures failed to get support from rising risk aversion and a broad decline in stock markets yesterday so weak leads won’t necessarily translate into a drop in yields early in the session, especially if German data at the start is hawkish. The data calendar is very busy see below for German figures on GDP and CPI. Italy also has preliminary Q1 GDP and there are final inflation numbers from Spain and Italy as well as French payrolls data.

German GDP and CPI: The German economy gained pace at the start of this year. In the first quarter of 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.7% on the fourth quarter of 2015 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. GDP numbers are stronger than expected, the strong expansion is unlikely to be sustained in the second quarter and the risks to the medium term outlook remain tilted to the downside. Still, for now the numbers back the ECB’s wait and see stance. Consumer prices in Germany fell by 0.1% in April 2016 compared with April 2015. The inflation rate – measured by the consumer price index – thus decreased, following a slight increase in the previous month. A negative rate had last been recorded in January 2015 (–0.3%). Compared with March 2016, the consumer price index fell by 0.4% in April.

BoE Warns Brexit would Lower Growth and Lift Inflation: The BoE once again voted unanimously to keep rates on hold today, as widely expected. The uncertainty ahead of the Brexit referendum on June 23 is now clearly having an impact and the inflation report lowered the expected growth trajectory even though it is based on the assumption that the U.K. will remain in the EU. At the same time the MPC stated very clearly that a a vote to leave the EU would lead to lower growth and higher inflation. The implication for the monetary policy outlook in such a scenario may be ambiguous, but the comments very clearly provide further ammunition to the “remain” camp in the run-up to the referendum.

Fedspeak: George (known hawk) said rates are too low for current conditions, in her speech on “Longer-Term Labor Market Trends, the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.” Boston Fed’s Rosengren warned risk of a hike is bigger than markets think. Cleveland Fed’s Mester (hawk): risks around Fed forecasts shouldn’t paralyze policymakers, and oil prices and the dollar have partly stabilized recently.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales: April retail sales are out on later today and should reveal a 0.6% (median 0.8%) headline with the ex-autos figure up 0.4% (median 0.4%) for the month. This follows March figures which had retail sales down 0.3% and ex-autos up 0.2%. The outlook for the release looks promising as vehicle sales rebounded to a 17.3 mln clip for the month alongside continued strength in construction employment which could help lift building material sales.

US PPI: April PPI is out today and should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.3%) headline with a 0.1% (median 0.1%) core increase for the month. The March headline was -0.1% as was the core and inflation measures had been struggling to post gains alongside the renewed downturn in oil prices that we saw over the winter. Oil prices remain depressed but there was some rebound in April which could help lift the PPI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”