FOREX News Today

European Outlook: A jump in oil prices following yesterday’s OPEC deal on output cuts and a stronger than expected manufacturing PMI reading out of China underpinned broad gains on Asian stock markets overnight. The front end WTI  future cleared the USD 50 per barrel mark, but while the oil price induced rally already helped European markets to post gains Wednesday, it seems to be running out of steam with U.S. stock futures down on the day in tandem with U.K. stock futures. Concerns about a new wave of global protectionism seems to be adding to concerns. The rise in oil prices should keep upward pressure on yields, although if equities head south again, we could see futures regaining some of yesterday’s losses. Italian markets will remain in focus as the referendum on constitutional reforms draws nearer. The European calendar has the final reading for the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment numbers and the U.K. manufacturing PMI for November.

US Reports Yesterday: Very solid personal income, ADP, and Chicago PMI figures that further document accelerating activity. For income, we saw a firm 0.6% October rise, with a lean 0.3% consumption increase but with the expected 0.1% “real” gain thanks to a lean 0.2% PCE chain price rise. We saw skewing of Q3 income and consumption strength toward September that lifted the entry to Q4, beyond the expected upward income revisions in Q2 and Q3, and Q3 consumption boosts. We lifted our consumption estimates, though we still peg Q4 GDP growth at 1.8%. A 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate for private payrolls with a 190k total payroll increase, though we saw a big 28k downward October ADP revision to 119k from 147k that left a downside gap to the 142k private payroll increase in that month. We saw a November Chicago PMI surge to a 22-month high of 57.6 to leave a robust level as producer sentiment extends its uptrend. We expect a 190k rise in November payrolls tomorrow.

Canada’s Growth Ticks Up: Canada’s 3.5% GDP rebound in Q3 was accompanied by the anticipated bounce back in energy production, but was joined by acceleration in the pace of consumption spending, a surge in investment on non-residential structures and a positive contribution from inventories. A 0.3% gain in September GDP left a strong hand-off to Q4. The reports also imparted a mildly positive tilt to the outlook for 2016 and 2017 growth, adding to the case for no change from the Bank of Canada at the December announcement.

Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Mester said the “devil will be in the details” in terms of fiscal, trade and immigration policies of the next administration with respect to inflation and employment, but raising rates would be a prudent step for the Fed as postponing hikes for too long would raise risks of recession and financial instability. She feels the Fed meanwhile “is not behind the curve.” Mester has been a hawkish dissenter against policy status quo and has been arguing for pre-emptive rate hikes for a while, so this won’t come as a surprise. Fed Governor Powell;communications should downplay the timing of rate moves, he said in prepared remarks at an “Understanding Fedspeak” event. Focusing on the potential timing of changes can lead to confusion. Rather, communications should emphasize the uncertainty over forecasts. On the dot plot, he noted that while changes in the plot might reveal changes in views on the policy path, it’s not a useful predictor of near term rate action. In conclusion, he said policymakers communicate a lot more these days; some of the comments are designed to express the consensus, while some is designed to show the diversity of views.

Main Macro Events Today                

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI  – The October ISM is expected to rise to 52.5 from 51.9 in October. Forecast risk: upward, given strong components in early month sentiment. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines. The ISM has shown a recent high of 59.9 in February ’11 and a low of 33.1 in December of 2008.

• Canada 3Q GDP – Real Q3 GDP is expected to rebound 3.4% in the report due today after the 1.6% drop in Q2. A bounce-back in real net exports is seen driving the pick-up. Consumption growth is seen slowing, while M&E investment should manage another small gain. Inventories are the usual wildcard, projected to modestly subtract from GDP. Meanwhile, September GDP by industry is seen up 0.1% m/m, leaving a tepid hand-off to Q4. Moreover, the Q3 surge will be driven by a return to production and activity in the Forth McMurray region after the wildfire temporarily halted production in Q2.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese markets fluctuating and closed with slight gains after the BoJ left rates unchanged, but lowered the inflation outlook. The Hang Seng is outperforming and mainland Chinese markets are also underpinned, after the official manufacturing PMI improved. The ASX underperformed as AUD strengthened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future is just above USD 47 per barrel and clearly down from recent highs, amid the lack of an OPEC output deal. In Europe trade is likely to be quieter than usual, with a public holiday in some European countries, including parts of Germany. This will delay the release of final EMU manufacturing PMI numbers until tomorrow, while Switzerland and the U.K. will publish manufacturing PMI data today.

The BoJ left policy unchanged following the conclusion of its latest policy meeting, as had been widely expected. This left the interest rate at -0.1% and QQE unchanged at Y80 tln per year. The central bank also pushed back, once again, the time when it expects inflation to reach the 2% target, now projecting this to happen “around fiscal 2018.” Previously the BoJ had forecast inflation returning to target by the end of fiscal 2017, which ends in March 2018. The ellusive target was first introduced in 2013. Headline core CPI fell to -0.5% y/y in October, while the so-called “core-core” CPI figure was flat y/y, a three-year low and highlighting sluggish consumer demand. The central bank also trimmed its inflation forecasts today, now seeing core CPI at 1.5% in 2017 versus 1.7% previously. On the economy, the BoJ said that the economy would continue to expand moderately, but noted that households haven’t been spending increased income and that the risks to the outlook were skewed to the downside.

FX Update: The Aussie dollar was the standout performing, rallying on the RBA’s decision to leave policy unchanged. AUD-USD and AUD-JPY are registering the biggest movement out of the currencies we track, showing respective gains of 0.7% and 0.8% into the London interbank open. Australia’s weak core inflation data had fed some speculation that the RBA might have opted to make a third rate cut of the year. But the antipodean central bank stood pat and Governor Lowe’s statement was upbeat in outlook, noting that “over the next year, the economy is forecast to grow at close to its potential rate before gradually strengthening” with inflation “expected to pick up gradually over the next two years.” AUDUSD clocked a six-day high at 0.7688 while AUDJPY broke into three-month high terrain. Stronger than expected October manufacturing PMI surveys out of China, with the Caixin version reaching its best level since August 2011, also lifted the Aussie. Elsewhere, currencies generally saw narrow ranges. Cable consolidated gains seen into the London close yesterday, holding around 1.2220-30. EURUSD continued to narrowly orbit the 1.0950 level. USDJPY popped moderately higher after the expected decision by the BoJ to leave policy unchanged with the central bank lowering CPI forecasts and yet again pushing back the time it expects the 2% target to be reached.

US Data reports: Mixed. We saw a moderate 0.3% September personal income gain, but with a solid 0.5% consumption rise, alongside divergent October swings for the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed that left both measures below prior estimates. We saw a Chicago PMI drop to a 5-month low of 50.6 from 54.2, and a rise for the Dallas Fed to a still-negative -1.5 in October from -3.7. We saw an ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed drop to 49.6 from 51.2 in October and 50.7 in September.

Carney to stay and extra 12 months: BoE’s Carney will stay on another year, taking his term beyond the expected Article 50 process in order to help secure an orderly transition. This followed a meeting yesterday with PM May,  the UK Finance Minister Hammond says he’s “very pleased” to hear that Carney intends to stay until the end of June 2019.

Main Macro Events Today                

• US manufacturing ISM – The October ISM should reveal a headline increase to 51.7 from 51.5 in September and 49.4 in August. Already released measures of sentiment for October have revealed headline declines. More broadly we expect sentiment to improve in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures climbing to 51 after two months at 50 as inventory headwinds dissipate and the mining sector rebounds.

• Canada GDP – Expectations are for a 0.2% rise in September GDP.  The modest gain would follow the back to back surges in August (+0.5%) and July (+0.6%), as the economy, or more specifically oil sands production in the Fort McMurray region, rebounded from the wildfires that shuttered production in May (when GDP fell 0.6%). The energy sector saw continued growth in September, as export volumes grew and higher volumes boosted manufacturing production.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed broadly lower, as investors remain focused on the earnings season, with Canon Inc. the biggest drag on the index. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, following on from losses yesterday. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI (USOil) futures remains firmly below USD 50 per barrel, as U.S. East and Gulf coast stockpiles rose and the country’s production picked up. In Europe Deutsche Bank reports earnings today and the calendar has U.K. Q3 GDP growth data, which is expected to show a sharp deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.3%. The Eurozone has M3 money supply growth and Italian consumer and business confidence data. Elsewhere Norges Bank is expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 0.50%. Core European bond futures declined in tandem with stock markets yesterday, as the focus remains on the U.S. rate outlook and the U.S. Presidential Election.

US Earnings – the busiest day : Earnings will remain the focal point again today with several more heavy hitters on tap. The calendar features Alphabet, Amazon, Twitter, Amgen, Baidu, Dow Chemical, Dr Pepper Snapple, Ford Motor, Aetna, Blackstone, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Brunswick, ConocoPhillips, Celgene, Raytheon, Expedia, Choice Hotels, Colgate-Palmolive, VW, Deckers, Hanesbrands, HealthSouth, LinkedIn, MGM Resorts, Nokia, Samsung Electronics, SolarCity, and Stanley Black & Decker.

US Data reports: Revealed big upside September surprises in the advance indicator report for the trade deficit and inventories alongside a 3.1% September new home sales rise that unfortunately followed big downward revisions over the prior three months that trimmed the summer sales spike. The trade and inventory surprises lifted Q3 GDP growth estimates sharply to 3.3% from 2.5%, though there were reductions in Q4 GDP growth to 2.0% from 2.5% as the expected Q4 inventory bounce was “pulled forward” into September. Expectations are now for a September drop in the goods and services trade gap to $36.5 bln from $40.7 bln in August. Also a 0.2% September business inventory increase that incorporates yesterday’s gains of 0.2% for wholesalers and 0.3% for retailers, alongside an assumed 0.1% factory inventory rise.

Germany’s Schaeuble: U.K. can’t have Brexit “A La Carte”. Nothing really new there, with the German finance minister repeating again that single market membership requires the acceptance of the EU’s four freedoms. He also said that the EU can’t show much flexibility, which confirms again that boths sides are heading for a hard Brexit scenario and Schaeuble’s hope that the economic damage for the EU and the U.K should be kept to a minimum, may be hard to achieve.

Main Macro Events Today                

• UK Prelim GDP –  The first post Brexit quarterly reading. So far cable has pivoted around 1.2200, since the flash crash on October 7^th. Announcement watched eagerly in Downing Street and at the BOE. Expectations are for a q/q figure of 0.3%. Last time 0.5% and the subsequently revised up to 0.7%.

• US Core Durable Goods – September figure is seen as edging up 0.2%, after August’s revised 0.1% increase.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japan a notable outperforming (closing up  and indices holding on to modest gains as the Yen continued to decline against the Dollar. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south as oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading below USD 50 per barrel, which has been hitting energy producers. Investors continue to watch earnings reports. ECB’s Draghi once again defended the ECB’s policy in a speech in Germany yesterday evening, while once again calling for support from the fiscal side. Nothing new there that would change the policy outlook.

German GfK consumer confidence: Dropped to 9.7 in November, from 10.0 in October. There is no breakdown for the November projections but the fall back was unexpected and disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected Ifo and PMI readings this week. The breakdown for October showed a marked improvement in business cycle expectations, which jumped to 13.0 from 6.8, the highest reading since June, which suggests that the Brexit shock was short lived. Despite this income expectations declined sharply as did the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save also slumped amid the low interest rate environment. Mixed messages then and at least in Germany it seems Draghi’s policy of easy money is not lifting consumption.

Australian CPI: The Australian dollar rallied following an above-forecast headline in Australian Q3 CPI, which rose 0.7% q/q, above the median expectation for a 0.5% rise. Most expect this should keep the RBA, which had cited concerns about disinflation as prime reasons for cutting rates in May and August this year, from any temptation to cut rates at its policy meeting next week. Core inflation painted a more benign picture, remaining unchanged at 1.5% y/y. AUDUSD lifted to a one-week high at 0.7708, which was a gain of just over 1%, before settling around 0.7690.

US Data reports: Revealed a larger than expected consumer confidence drop to 98.6 in October from a 103.5 (was 104.1) September figure that now sits marginally below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015, alongside a Richmond Fed rise to -4.0 from -8.0 in September and a 3-year low of -11.0 August. We also saw big gains in two August home price indicators of 0.4% for Case-Shiller and 0.7% for the FHFA. The ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rose to 51.5 from 50.8 in September and a 43-month low of 49.7 in August, as we’re seeing a renewed uptrend in producer sentiment with the bounce in oil prices and a recovery in mining and factory output as the big six-quarter inventory headwind reverses course. Confidence faces a headwind from the November elections, though we have an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce after a three-quarter string of lean 1% growth rates through Q2.

Main Macro Events Today                

• US Flash Services PMI  – Expectations are for a slight uptick to 52.4 from a positively revised 52.3 last time.

• US New Home Sales –  New home sales are expected to decrease 1.5% to a 600k unit pace in September from 609k in August. Forecast risk: upward, given the higher NAHB for the month. Market risk: downward, as a run of weak data could impact the path of further rate hikes.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, as the positive confidence indicators out of Europe and the U.S. yesterday were overshadowed by weak GDP numbers from South Korea, which weighed on most markets. Topix and Nikkei outperformed, with a weaker Yen underpinning exporters. U.S. and U.K stock futures are also moving higher, oil prices are little changed, and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 50.51 per barrel. After the strong round of PMI readings for the Eurozone yesterday markets will be looking for upside surprises in the German Ifo and French business confidence data, which would keep pressure on Bund futures and continue to underpin Eurozone stocks. The FTSE 100 meanwhile seems set to recover some of yesterday’s losses as the Pound drops against USD and EUR, although Gilt futures should continue to outperform Bunds as strong confidence data fuels ECB tapering speculation.

BoC’s Poloz “Wait and See approach to rate cuts”:  saying that the bank’s “…best plan right now, we think, is to wait for the next 18 months or so.” A two track economy makes monetary policy more difficult, as it is challenging to speed up fast growing parts to offset the slower growing parts, he explained. He said the bank has to “weigh the risk of waiting longer against what are the costs associated with doing something more immediate.” He acknowledged that more easing would put the bank “very close to using unconventional tools. And that’s of course not a decision we take lightly.” As for last week, those uncertainties prevented a rate cut. The comments came in response to questions in his ongoing Q&A with the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. His comments appear to squash the prospects for a near term rate cut, which seemed to ramp up significantly with his dovish remarks following the announcement. The loonie firmed, as USDCAD backtracked from nearly 1.3400 to 1.3286 following his comments. Overnight the pair recouped the 1.3300 handle and currently trades at 1.3335.

US Data Reports: US flash Markit PMI jumped 1.7 points to 53.2 in October, after falling 0.5 points to 51.5 in September from 52.0 in August. This is the highest since last October’s 54.1 print. New orders rose to 54.7 from 51.1, though the employment component declined. The better than expected headline is consistent with expectations for a pick up in activity in Q4.

Fedspeak: Chicago Fed dove Evans was true to his leanings – the near-term growth outlook is relatively good, and the labor market improvement is solid. And though those should support higher inflation projections, he remains worried that inflation is still too low while the outlook is uncertain. That’s been his concern for some time, and he continues to stress the need for the Fed to show a commitment to its 2% inflation target. The FOMC should undershoot its employment projection, and overshoot on its inflation goal. Evans is not a voter this year, but he does vote in 2017, along with Harker, Kaplan and Kashkari. Fed’s Bullard reiterated one 25 bp rate hike is likely, though he gave no timing. He thinks that should be sufficient for now and expects the low rate environment to be the norm for the next several years. But he acknowledged that the St Louis Fed’s rate forecast is flatter than those of others on the Committee. That’s pretty much the market’s assessment, where implied Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 67% chance for one 25 bp rate increase in December, with the move not fully priced in until 2018.

Main Macro Events Today                

• German Ifo Business Climate – Expected to tick up slightly to 109.6 from 109.5 last time. A survey of 7,000 German businesses that has a strong track record of correlation to the German and wider Euro area economy. Other figures relate to current business Assessment and Expectations.

• US Consumer Confidence – September Consumer Confidence is expected to decrease to 101.0 from 104.1.This compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the drop in the Michigan headline. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.

• Carney & Draghi  Speeches – The BOE Governor is up first at 14:30 in front of the House of Lords Economic Affairs committee around 14.30 GMT. He’s there to answer questions on “The economic consequences of the vote to leave the EU and the BOE’s response”. This will be one to keep an eye on as we might see Carney walking that fine line between politics and being an independent central bank.  The ECB President is scheduled at 15:30 for a lecture on stability, equity and monetary policy to the German DIW Economic Institute.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.