FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly higher, with Hong Kong stocks reversing declines after Chinese data which showed better than expected new loan growth in the second quarter and a slightly better overall growth number. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are lower, however, and Bund and Gilt futures will have a chance to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. The BoE’s decision to leave rates steady for now may have been somewhat of a disappointment, but the MPC all but announced further easing for August, so there is room for a correction in yields. The European calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation for June, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.1% y/y. The headline rate is finally out of negative territory again, but still far below the ECB’s target and still leaving the central bank sufficient room to act again if necessary.

Strong Chinese Data: China’s GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, slightly better than expected, matching the 6.7% pace in Q1. Separately, retail sales grew at a 10.6% y/y pace in June from the 10.0% clip in May. Industrial production improved to a 6.2% y/y pace in June from 6.0%. Overall, China’s growth rate stabilized in Q2, contrary to fears the economy would see a pronounced slowdown.  All three key data points were ahead of expectations and has dampened expectations that further stimulus will be required. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, USDJPY spiked over 106, and AUDUSD moved up to 0.7675 before declining to 0.7630.

US Data Reports: All beat estimates with a firm round of June PPI gains and another tight initial claims reading through the July 4th holiday, hence confirming both the resilience in U.S. inflation and the tight labor market conditions signaled by the last round of payroll data with a likely July boost from this year’s diminished auto retooling effect. For PPI, we saw a 0.5% June headline rise with a 0.8% surge on the old SA basis, with a firm 0.4% core price rise. For claims, we expect a 6k drop in next week’s July BLS survey week reading back to the 248k cycle-low, following two consecutive tight readings of 254k that leave a lean 254k average thus far on the month.

Fedspeak: Esther George (Kansas City) current level of rates is too low and faster wage growth suggests the labor market is returning to normal, said the hawkish voter. That said, she will be looking at the impact of Brexit, which will be around for a while, along with the flight to quality when assessing any impact on the U.S. economy, seen likely to be modest. This should not come as a surprise, given her past dissents against accommodative policy. Atlanta Fed’s Dennis Lockhart endorsed a “cautious and patient” approach as appropriate given the uncertainty around Brexit and low inflation. Though “not a Lehman moment,” Brexit could weigh on business investment and create an income headwind for years to come, though he sees little immediate impact on the U.S. Lockhart still forecasts 2% U.S. growth and “very brisk” consumer spending. He sees the Fed meeting its policy objectives on inflation and employment in 2017, while already near full employment. Overall this is in line with his centrist reputation, as caution is balanced by optimism. No rush to hike, then, but perhaps he would be on board by year-end.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Retail Sales – June retail sales data is out on Friday and is expected to show that retail sales remained unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month while sales ex-autos rose 0.3% (median 0.4%). Figures for May had headline retail sales up 0.5% with ex-autos up 0.4%. There is downside risk to the release from weaker vehicle sales for the month and continued sluggish growth in chain store sales.

• US CPI – June CPI is out today and we expect to see a 0.3% headline (median 0.3%) with the core up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows May figures that had the headline up 0.2% and the core up 0.2% as well. The June PPI was up 0.5% on the month while export prices rose by 0.8% and import prices by 0.2%.

• BOE Carney Speech – Speaking in Toronto about climate change and the financial markets.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses continuing to benefit from stimulus hopes, while mainland China saw profit taking amid concerns that the market is overbought. Hang Seng and ASX 200 posted modest gains and U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher. Oil prices are higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 46 per barrel. The focus in Europe will be on the BoE today, which is expected to cut rates by 25 bp today along with dovish guidance, as the bank is eying the fallout from the Brexit vote. The U.K. RICS house price balance, dropped to 10 from 19 highlighting that house prices will be one are that will feel the sting. The European calendar is pretty empty otherwise.

US Data Reports: Fed Beige Book reiterated the economy grew at a “modest” pace over the last six weeks (ending July 1), in line with expectations. The report, prepared by the St Louis Fed, had a slightly more upbeat tone versus recent Beige Books and was generally positive across broad areas of the economy. Consumer spending was generally positive, as was reported in June. However, there are some signs of softening. Labor market conditions remained stable, with employment growth modestly while wage pressures remained modest to moderate. Manufacturing was mixed but generally improved. Real estate continued to strengthen. The natural resources and energy sectors continued weak, however, damping the overall outlook. Price pressures remained slight. Though a tad more optimistic than recent reports, it won’t bring the FOMC off the sidelines at the July 26, 27 policy meeting.

Fedspeak: Kaplan is optimistic on the economy, expecting growth of about 2% after the disappointing 1.1% pace from Q1. Consumer spending should be solid this year, he added. Much of the recent erosion in the labor market he attributes to demographics, with part of it cyclical too. The participation rate is likely to decline further to below 61%, which creates headwinds for GDP, and suggested the only way to bounce back is through immigration. He looks for demand and supply in the oil market to get back into balance in Q1 2017, with prices continuing to firm. He added that the FOMC is very sensitive to the strength of the dollar. Kaplan becomes an FOMC next year.

Main Macro Events Today        

• BOE Rate Announcement Our view matches the strong consensus view for the Old Lady to cut the repo rate by 25bp, which would take it to a record low of 0.25%. This would be the first change in the repo rate since March 2009 and would more than likely be accompanied by dovish guidance, leaving the door open to further cuts and to a restart of the QE programme. The BoE will continue to make cash available for liquidity injections into the banking system.

•  US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of July 9 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 265k (median 265k) after a big dip to 254k in the week of July 2nd. Overall, we expect claims to average 262k in July from 265k in June with nonfarm payrolls adding 180k in July after a 287k bounce in June.

• U.S. PPI June PPI is also out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline increase with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This follows stronger figures in May which had the headline up 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. June trade price data has already been released and had import prices up 0.2% for the month with export prices up 0.8%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery continued in Asia overnight, (Nikkei 225 closed up +0.84% at 16,231) but U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south, suggesting that it is starting to run out of steam. Oil prices are off highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 46 per barrel, Eased uncertainty about the U.K. as the domestic situation seems more settled and preparations for exit talks can start sooner than previously expected, coupled with hopes of further global stimulus is helping to underpin sentiment, but as GDP bounces back Gilt futures and FTSE 100 have been underperforming, even as the more domestically oriented FTSE 250 is doing better. The European data calendar as final June inflation data from France, Spain and Italy, which should hold any surprises. Eurozone production data for May meanwhile is set to show a sizeable contraction, thus confirming again that overall growth slowed down in the second quarter of the year. Events include the BoE’s credit condition survey, as the MPC starts its two day meeting, with tomorrow’s announcement expected to bring a 25 bp rate cut.

US Data Reports: U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings dropped 345k in May to 5,500k, after rising 175k to 5,845k in April (revised from 5,788k). That left the rate at 3.7% from 3.9%. Hirings also declined 49k to 5,036k, a third consecutive monthly drop (hirings have fallen in four of the five months this year). The rate was steady at 3.5%. Quitters also dipped 14k to 2,895k after the 39k decline in April to 2,909k (revised from 2,912k) and the 7k slip in March. The rate was unchanged at 2.0%. The data are old, especially in light of the recent gyrations in employment. The data seem consistent with some of the weakening trend in the job market this year, though it’s not clear if that is more a function of the economy being near full employment, or an indication of a slowing in the overall economy. Note that Yellen is a fan of the quit rate, and looks for increases in that statistic to suggest a strengthening labor market. So the declines there in recent months may be another reason for her increasingly cautious outlook.

Discount Rate Hike preferred: Six Fed banks favored a discount rate hike by 25 basis points the Fed’s discount rate minutes revealed, with the vote taking place just ahead of the last meeting where rates were held steady following the May jobs miss and Brexit anticipation. A quartet of four had already requested a hike previously, including the KC, Richmond, Cleveland and SF Feds, and they were joined by Boston and St. Louis. The rationale: “expected strengthening in economic activity and their expectations for inflation to gradually move toward the 2% objective.” This shouldn’t come as a surprise to the bond market, which is already on a bearish tear anyway.

Fedspeak: Bullard: QE gives the Fed some “ammunition” in the event of another downturn, while his new view on rates is closer to what the market is pricing, with low probability of a rate increase. On productivity, he said the poor education system was not to blame in the 1990s, nor today, which could be at its root a demographic shift as older experienced workers retire. The labor force participation rate is continuing to fall for this reason as well. He said that yield curve flattening is not a sign of slowing growth but more likely a flight to safety after the Brexit vote, said the St. Louis Fed president. Talk of further U.S. stimulus is wrong and Fed calls for a better growth (fiscal) policy have been falling on deaf ears. He forecasts continued slowing in job growth in coming months as a normal development, while the ultimate impact of Brexit on the U.S. may be close to nil. Bullard continues to align himself more closely with swings in market sentiment.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Import & Export Prices  June trade price data is out today and should show import prices up 0.6% (median 0.5%) on the month while export prices grow by 0.3%. This compares to May figures which had import prices up 1.4% and export prices up 1.1%. After a long run of negative figures over the winter the rebound in oil prices is now helping to lift headlines.

• BOC Outlook  We expect no change in the policy rate, with the current 0.50% setting seen as unaltered in today’s announcement. Recent economic data suggest the Bank could inject more caution in its cautiously optimistic outlook. But lofty June housing starts were a timely reminder that the Bank did highlight housing in the May announcement. A repeat of that announcement’s emphasis on strong regional divergences in housing performance would contrast with a more cautious outlook on growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the robust U.S. jobs report for June suggests growth south of the border is chugging along, supportive of the Bank’s scenario for improving domestic growth in the second half.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets in Japan continued to rally, and the Yen weakened as Abe’s election victory cleared the way for more “Abenomics”. Gains in other Asian markets were more modest and while U.S. stock futures are moving higher, FTSE 100 futures are in the red, despite the fact that the BoE is expected to cut rates once again on Thursday. The U.K. may have a new Prime Minister by tomorrow evening and Theresa May, poised to take over from Cameron, could start exit talks earlier than previously thought. So far she hasn’t taken a soft approach and refused to rule out the deportation of EU citizens already working and living in the U.K., which will not go down well in the city. EU finance ministers will meet today and after the Eurogroup yesterday backed the Commission’s recommendations for fines on Spain and Portugal budget overshoots, this is likely to be approved by the Ecofin today. The issue of Italy’s plans to recapitalize Italian banks without bail-ins remains open. The data calendar has German final June inflation at the start of the session, more inflation data from Sweden and Portugal and Irish GDP numbers for Q1. Nothing that would change key central bank outlooks for now. The BoE releases the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee, which was held on June 28, that is after the referendum and may attract more attention than usual if there are more warnings on the possible fallout.

US Data Reports: The stock market got another free pass from prospects of fresh stimulus in Japan following the landslide election of Abe, as investors hoped to collect $200 in “helicopter” money, not go directly to jail or at least get some free parking near historic highs. News that Japan machinery orders plunged and former Fed chief Bernanke was paying a visit to BoJ buddies fueled that speculation and related asset rebalancing. This took some starch out of bonds, gold and the yen, while WTI crude also eased 1%, back under $45. S&P 500, hit fresh record highs at 2,143, The NASDAQ cleared 5,000, and the Dow marked a session high 18,283.

Brexit Aftermath: The uncertainty surrounding the new UK Prime Minister evaporated yesterday as Theresa May became the only candidate, following the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom. David Cameron will tender his resignation to the Queen on Wednesday after chairing his last Cabinet meeting today. Brexit means Brexit, May has said. The GBP and the FTSE both rallied yesterday with some of the uncertainty over the government, post-Brexit, now out of the way. GBPUSD currently trades significantly north of 1.3000 at 1.3074.

Fedspeak: The Fed’s Esther George welcomed the good news from Friday’s jobs report and said it shows the resilience of the economy. She said consumers are continuing to spend, while household confidence is up. However, business investment has been relatively weak, though it’s been holding up ok outside of the energy and manufacturing sectors. She added that the strong dollar and weaker global growth may hurt exports. Keeping rates too low carries risks, reminded the long-time Fed hawk (and 2016 voter), and said the current level of Fed policy is too soft, in her opinion. There are limits to what monetary policy can achieve, but it’s getting closer to achieving its goals. Core inflation has been firming and the pace of job creation has been noteworthy. But demand for middle-skilled workers has dropped sharply and the recovery has not been evenly spread across the workforce. She thinks that gradual rate increase will help the FOMC achieve its goals. Though she’s one of the more hawkish on the FOMC, her comments don’t suggest she’ll push for a rate hike as soon as the July 26, 27 FOMC meeting due to Brexit fallout, but she is likely to argue for a hike at the September 20, 21 meeting if the markets are stable and Brexit fears have diminished.

Main Macro Events Today        

• BOE Governor Carney Speaks –  Testifies before the Treasury Select Committee about the Bank of England Financial Stability Report. Unlikely to reveal anything particularly new ahead of Thursdays MPC meeting announcement.

• JOLTS Job Openings – This data point is a particular favourite FED Chair Mrs. Yellen so will have added interest today in particular following the strong NFP data on Friday. Last month there were 5.79m job openings posted with expectations that his month the number will be slightly lower at 5.74m.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly lower, following on from a weak close on Wall Street as a slump in oil prices in the wake of the EIA inventory report hit confidence. Prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 46 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures signal further pressure on equity markets. This should see Bund and Gilt futures recover some of yesterday’s losses going into today’s U.S. jobs report where we expect a bounce in payroll growth to between 160k and 210K (median 178K).  Brexit and Italian bank problems remain the focus in Europe. U.K. consumer confidence plunged sharply following the Brexit referendum, according to GfK data, which saw the core index plunging to -90 in a survey conducted June 30-July 5, from -1 ahead of the referendum. Still to come Germany and the U.K. publish trade data for May and France has production numbers.

US Data Reports: Signaled a tightening labor market as we approach today’s jobs report where we expect a bounce in payroll growth. We saw a 16k initial claims drop to a lean 254k in the first week of July that sits barely above the 42-year low of 248k from the April BLS survey week, and we expect a similarly lean July BLS survey week reading after an assumed bounce next week to 265k, given our read of the auto retooling distortions. We also saw a firm 172k June ADP rise, even though these figures didn’t benefit from the 35k Verizon strike reversal that will lift payrolls, and the as-reported ADP figures have run 18k per month weaker than private payrolls since 2012.

Brexit Aftermath: Think tank NIESR said UK GDP went negative in June after stagnating in May, though a strong April carried an overall estimated growth of +0.6% in Q2. The group stated that “when April drops out of the three-month calculation we should see a quick deterioration of growth, especially if the estimated contraction in June persists or accelerates in July or beyond.” All the signs suggest that activity is diminishing at an accelerated rate since the June 23 referendum. Timely surveys by YouGov CEBR found both business and consumer confidence have dropped sharply since the Brexit vote. There have been bright spots, however, with exporters such as Burberry, a high-end fashion retailer, likely to benefit from the weaker pound, while a trade deal with India may happen within a year (a deal between the EU and India has been held for years by the former’s concerns about wine and car trade). The good news stories so far don’t look likely to offset the possibility that the UK ends up with a net worse trade deal with the EU.

Canada’s Ivey PMI improved: It registered 51.7 in June up from 49.4 in May. The prices index fell to 59.7 in June from 63.1. The pull-back in May left the Ivey at the weakest level of the year, and was below the most recent foray into contractionary (sub-50) territory in December of 2015 that saw the index fall to 49.9. The decline in May was not shocking given the Fort McMurray fires during the month, and the concerns about the outlook for the region and the impact of stopped oil production on the national economy. The move back above 50 in June is consistent with some improvement in activity during the month as a whole, although wildfire disruptions persisted early in the month.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Nonfarm payrolls   June employment data is out today and could reveal a possible 210k (median 178k) headline after last months disappointing 38k and only 123k in April. We expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.7% for a second month. The balance of risk is firmly to the upside.

• Japan’s policy Troika The MoF, FSA and BoJ will meet today to discuss the financial markets post-Brexit and concurrent strength of the yen that could relegate Japan’s economy back into recession, according to a Reuters report. Former Fed Chairman Bernanke will be meeting next week with PM Abe and BoJ’s Kuroda, no doubt to discuss helicopter maintenance and NIRP: “The meetings underscore the concern government officials have about damage that the recent market rout, triggered by the Brexit vote, could inflict on Japan’s fragile economic recovery. The last time they met was on June 25, shortly after Britain voted to leave the European Union, a decision that jolted financial markets and boosted investors’ demand for the safe-haven yen JPY. Bernanke is expected to discuss Brexit and the BOJ’s negative interest rate policy with Abe and Kuroda, the official said. The BOJ governor has repeatedly denied that the BOJ would adopt such a policy (helicopter money), however, saying it is as an ‘impossible’ option under current law separating the government’s role in fiscal policy from the BOJ’s in monetary policy.”

• Canada Employment  We expect employment, also due today, to rise 10.0k in June after the 13.8k gain in May. May saw a strong boost from Census hiring (public admin +19.4k), which should unwind in June. And the wildfires persisted into June, which could trim resource and related jobs. But the May report had a surprisingly firm tone even when the temporary factors are accounted for, suggesting the job market was resilient, which could have carried into June. We expect the unemployment rate to tick higher to 7.0% in June from 6.9% in April that came on the heels of back to back 7.1% readings in March and April. Hours worked are expected to nudge 0.1% higher (m/m) in June after the 0.2% gain in May.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets outside of mainland China headed south, led by a sharp drop in Japanese markets, as the Yen gained on fresh Brexit fears. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future remains below USD 47 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down. More support then for Bund and Gilt futures, with core European yields continuing to head for ever new lows, while peripheral Eurozone markets are under pressure and spreads widen as risk aversion flares up again. Italian banking sector concerns and Spanish and Portuguese budget woes also remain in focus. The calendar today as German orders data at the start of the session, which should rebound from the slump in April, but will be too backward looking to ease growth concerns. Germany sells 2-year Schatz notes and there is ECB speak from Villeroy and Draghi.

German manufacturing orders fail to rise in May. Expectations had been for a rebound from the slump in April, which was only marginally revised higher to -1.9% m/m from -2.0% m/m reported initially. The stagnation over the month left the annual rate down -0.2% y/y and this is data preceding the Brexit referendum, which will only add to growth concerns for the Eurozone’s largest economy.

Brexit Aftermath: A THIRD UK commercial property fund, M&G suspended withdrawals yesterday. This caused worries that there could be a crash in UK commercial property values and therefore impacts on the wider economy. Sterling collapsed again overnight sinking as low as $1.2798 – more than 15% below the levels seen on referendum day – in Asian trading before recovering slightly to $1.2897, down 1%. Against the euro, which is a better proxy of the pound’s trade-weighted value, the loss is 13.5%, while the high-to-low decline against the outperforming yen is 19.5%, a staggering magnitude of movement for a currency pairing in the space of less than 10 trading days. GBPJPY today dove over 1.5% to new 43-month lows, while USDJPY clocked at low at 100.58, since recouping to the low 101.0s but remaining over 0.5% lower. EURUSD fell to one-week lows under 1.1050. Commodity currencies joined sterling in the underperforming lane.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Williams says a 2016 rate hike is appropriate if his forecasts hold, he noted in a Bloomberg interview. Underlying job growth is “still pretty favorable” and he believes Brexit risks are still “relatively modest.” China concerns in late 2015 and early 2016 were more significant. He hasn’t changed his outlook much in the aftermath of the UK vote. The unemployment rate should dip to 4.5% by the end of the year. A lower for longer posture risks a more aggressive tightening path later. He won’t comment on the timing of action, however. He is not a voter this year, and has taken on a decidedly more hawkish tone this year. He was one of the more dovish Fed presidents through most of his tenure. Fed’s Dudley said the U.S. economy is doing ok, on average, a projects 1H growth just below 2%. Investment spending has been weaker than expected. In the early days of Brexit, it’s hard to understand the fallout. It will be significant if it spurs financial contagion. He reiterated the FOMC’s data dependency and will see how things go, and added that the low inflation rate allows policymakers to take a patient approach. His remarks at a roundtable discussion on business conditions aren’t surprising as he maintains his dovish posture.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Draghi Speech – ECB President Draghi is due to speak at the 8^th ECB statistics conference 07:00 GMT

• FOMC Minutes –  Minutes of the June 15-16 meeting are due to be published at 18:00 GMT. Jobs growth slowed, but economy was sen to be picking up but inflation still running below target.  The Fed expects economy to warrant gradual increases actual rate path still data dependent. More details from the minutes.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China headed south US and UK stock futures are also down. A stronger Yen weighed on Japanese markets and lower oil prices saw energy companies retreating. The front end WTI future fell below USD 49 per barrel as global growth concerns flare up again. That the U.K’s departure from the EU will hit growth on both sides of the channel is becoming clear and global growth concerns are also flaring up again. Growth indicators are starting to move back in focus and fresh concerns about Italy’s banking system are weighing on the Eurozone, while the political chaos in the U.K. continues. The main players of the “Leave” campaign now have both resigned and both major political parties seem in disarray, which only adds to the confusion about the long term relationship between the U.K. and the rest of the EU.

AUD leaves cash rate unchanged at 1.75%: Keys points from Governor Stevens’s statement include: Global markets have been volatile, but inflation low and likely to remain so. Australian growth set to continue, low interest rates are encouraging domestic demand and a rising AUD could complicate economic adjustments. The impact of Brexit to global economy remains to be seen. Statement viewed as less dovish than expected. Key data will be CPI figures due July 27 to inform their August decision.  Earlier Retail sales were much weaker than expected, the AUDUSD spiked to 0.7543 before falling back to 0.7500 and is currently trading at 0.7520..

UK Business Expectations drops sharply following Brexit:  UK business pessimism doubles in the week following Brexit with 49% of surveyed businesses pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next 12 months compared to 25% pre-Brexit. An index published by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research also fell from 112.6 to 105 in the three days following the referendum.  Cebr Director Scott Corfe commented to Bloomberg. “Not only are businesses feeling much more pessimistic in general about the state of the economy, but their own expectations for domestic sales, exports and investments over the next 12 months have gone off a cliff.” Bloomberg also reported that over 75% of economists that they surveyed expect the UK to slip into recession.

Australian Retail Sales miss: Low 0.2% growth in Retail sales missed expectations of 0.3% and the previous month was revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%. Deflation remains a potential problem and adds weight to the hawks on the RBA wanting to see an interest rate rise. Retail sales topped AUD290 billion last year and the sector is Australia’s second largest employer with 1.25 million workers. John Durkan, managing director of the giant Coles supermarket chain said recently. “I anticipate we’ll be dropping prices over the course of the next 5 years, and I don’t see prices increasing during that period.”

Main Macro Events Today

• BOE Carney Speech   Governor Carney is due to speak and hold a press conference following the publication of the BOE’s Financial Stability Report. The report is published at 09:30 GMT with the press conference following 30 minutes later at 10:00 GMT.

• UK Services PMI  We expect a slight fall to 53.1 from last month’s 53.5 (which was well above expectations at 52.5 and well above the previous month at 52.3. However, the post Brexit effect could have a serious impact on the figure moving forward. Services accounts for close to 80% of UK (and most High Income Countries) GDP so this figure (and the coming months figures) will be watched with great interest.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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