FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The recovery in stock markets didn’t last long and markets headed south again in Asia overnight, with U.S. and U.K. stock futures also under pressure. Fed and BoJ kept policy on hold and while this was largely expected, there were some lingering hopes that at least the BoJ would add further stimulus but with the statement maybe a tad less dovish than expected, the Yen strengthened and Japanese equities sold off, with the Nikkei down -2.98%. The Hang Seng is down -2.20%. The focus now shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today. Again no changes are expected, but with Brexit risks looming the tone of the statements will be watched carefully. Event risks continue to overshadow data releases, which today include U.K. retail sales and the final reading of Eurozone May HICP numbers.

The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged: The Fed again did not define a “balance of risks” and didn’t give any clear indication of the timing of the next hike, though it still expects two more this year. “Growth in economic activity appears to have picked up,” said the statement, but the “pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed.” This contradiction was the opposite in the previous statement, though it also noted that household spending has improved and the drag from net exports has lessened, while business investment has been soft. The Fed again indicated that inflation is running below target. There was no dissent this time from Esther George, (long time hawk), compounding the more dovish interpretation. Likewise, the dot-plot was significantly lowered, growth outlook trimmed and inflation outlook tweaked just slightly higher despite the rebound in energy prices. FOMC forecast revisions released with the policy statement show surprisingly large downward revisions in the official GDP forecasts for 2016, followed by downward bumps across the forecast horizon, leaving a distribution of 2016 Fed estimates that lie almost entirely below our own 2.2% forecast.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board continues to gauge the economic impact of their unpopular negative-rate policy ahead of an election next month. With the uncertain outlook for global markets also giving reason for pause, the BOJ held its key interest rate at minus 0.1 percent and kept the annual target for expanding the monetary base at 80 trillion yen ($764 billion). Dollar and GBP weakness and yen strength continued following the announcement USDJPY traded as low at 104.04 and GBPJPY as low as the 147.30.

US data reports: Revealed a welcome June Empire State bounce to 6.0 that reversed the May plunge to -9.0, though industrial production underperformed in May with a 0.4% drop led by a 7.0% drop in the vehicle assembly rate to an 11.4 mln clip. The vehicle sector pullback explains May weakness in other payroll and sentiment data, and a likely vehicle sector rebound into the shifting summer retooling period should support a June factory sector bounce as seen with Empire State. We also saw a 0.4% May PPI rise with a firm 0.3% core price increase, as US inflation measures continue to document both a rebound in commodity prices and a firm 2016 core price path.

Main Macro Events Today

• Swiss National Bank  The official view from SNB remains that prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability.  Rates are currently -0.75% and no change is expected.  Prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability.  The SNB’s baseline scenario assumes that economic conditions for the Swiss banking sector improve. Economic growth picks up moderately in the euro area, but unemployment remains high in many member states. In the US, growth remains robust. Growth in China slows further and some major emerging markets remain in recession. In Switzerland, the recovery continues and unemployment begins to decline slowly after peaking in the second half of 2016.

 

•  UK Interest  Rate decision  No change expected UK rates with a week to the UK Referendum on membership of the EU. CPI has been under pressure and there is a very low probability of interest rate hikes before 1Q 2017.  The press conference is always of interest.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

Stock markets started to stabilise overnight, as the Yen weakened and helped exporters to bounce back ahead of today’s Fed decision. The BoJ is due to follow and some speculation of further central bank action has also underpinned the first improvement in Topix and Nikkei in five days. Chinese reversed early losses and jumped higher, sparking speculation that state-backed funds may be supporting the market, after MSCI Inc. refused to add China’s domestic equities to the benchmarks indexes. U.S. stock futures are still in the red ahead of the Fed, but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher. Oil prices are down, with the front end Nymex future trading below USD 48 per barrel. Nervousness remains ahead of the round of central bank decisions this week and next week’s Brexit referendum. The events will likely overshadow the data calendar once again, which has U.K. labour market data and European trade numbers.

FOMC began its meeting and announces its policy stance this afternoon at 14:00 ET. While a hike today is off the table, the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward. Outside of the weak May employment report, most pieces of data have been consistent with GDP growth of 2.6% this quarter. Price pressures have also been on the rise. And these factors support expectations that the FOMC will look to normalize further, and perhaps as soon as July, as is out view, as well as the Median estimate from last week’s Survey. The Fed’s dot plot is likely to again show 2 tightenings this year, though the median rate might be revised slightly lower. We also expect Fed Chair Yellen will be cautiously optimistic on the economy in her press conference, while still acknowledging the downside risks, as she did in her June 6 speech.

Canada Household Leverage Remains Near Record High: Canada’s household leverage remained elevated in Q1, as the ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income slipped ever so slightly to 165.3% from a record high 165.4% in Q4. The historically elevated debt to income ratio continues to highlight a prominent risk associated with the current policy setting. However, the Bank of Canada’s focus is growth and inflation, so rising leverage amid the current ultra accommodative rate environment will continue to be taken in stride by policymakers.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was lifted to 2.8% in Q2 from 2.5% previously in the wake of the gain in May retail sales: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on June 14, up from 2.5 percent on June 9. After this morning’s retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.5 percent to 3.9 percent. The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 17.”

Yesterday’s US reports revealed the expected May strength in retail sales and surprisingly large trade prices increases, though we also saw restrained business inventory gains that lowered our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.1% from 1.2%, versus the 0.8% prior reported pace. For retail sales, we saw only small prior revisions that had no net impact on our GDP forecasts, with expected May gains for gasoline station and auto dealer sales. For trade prices, we saw big increases in oil import and food export prices, but also big core price gains, and with boosts in prior import price gains that trimmed the skewing of recent trade price strength toward exports.

Main Macro Events Today

• Canada Manufacturing: We expect manufacturing shipments, due Wednesday, to grow 1.0% in April (median same at +1.0%) after the 0.9% m/m drop in March and 4.0% plunge in February. A 1.5% gain in export values after the 4.1% drop in March and 6.8% plunge in February provides a compelling reason to forecast a gain in manufacturing shipment values during April.

• US NY Fed “Empire State” Index: June producer sentiment kicks off with the release of the Empire State Index on Wednesday. We expect the headline to climb to -1.0 (median -4.0) after a tumble to -9.0 in May from 9.6 in April. Producer sentiment as settled back near recent lows with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures hitting 49 again in May after a spike to 53 in March and subsequent dip to 51 in April.

• US Industrial Production: May industrial production is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.2% (median unchanged) headline decline following a 0.7% increase in April and a 0.9% decrease in March. Capacity utilization should fall to 75.2% (median 75.3%) from 75.4% in April. Factory and mining employment both declined in the May employment report which could indicate downside risk for the release.

• US FOMC: We expect no rate hike today but the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward.

• Bank of Canada: Governor Poloz speech.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets remain under pressure, with most Asian markets down and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also heading south. Risk aversion continues to dominate amid heightened uncertainty ahead of this week’s round of central bank meetings and next week’s Brexit referendum. The focus has shifted to the wider fallout for the EU and Eurozone spreads are widening sharply amid concerns that a U.K. exit from the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The European calendar focuses on inflation data, with U.K. CPI expected to nudge higher to 0.4% y/y from 0.3% y/y in April. Italy and Spain release final May inflation data, and the Eurozone has production numbers for April.

Brexit Polls push a volatile sterling: Three polls yesterday had the Leave camp ahead and the UK largest circulation newspaper (The Sun) openly came out in favour of a Brexit vote. The FT poll of polls now has Remain on 45% Leave on 47% and Undecided at 9%. Seven of the last ten polls have given the Leave camp the lead. UK government gilts have surged on the uncertainty as sterling falls. GBPUSD is trading below  1.4160, GBPJPY is below 150.00 and EURGBP has rallied as high as 0.7880.

US VIX equity volatility surged sharply since Friday considering the relatively mild drops in the S&P500 since then, indicative of heightened sensitivity to downside price action in stocks. The VIX had traded below 13.0 earlier in June to 2-month lows, but surged above 15.0 Friday to clear 17.0. Monday it gapped out above 18.0 to open at 18.24 and closed at the day high of 20.97 (up 23.14% on the day). Certainly it appears that hedging against downside risks via the VIX has proven popular with several major macro fund managers talking down stocks and up gold. That may be especially true after the June peak at 2,120 stopped just shy of all-time highs of 2,134 before touching a low of 2,085 today, while the 200-day m.a. is well south at 2,015. Brexit risks near-term, domestic terror acts and polarizing November elections further out, not to mention global growth risks, remain gusty headwinds for stock investors.

Fed Policy Outlook: No change in policy is expected from the FOMC two day meeting which starts later today, and the market has largely priced out much chance for a hike this year, according to Fed funds futures, which are also benefiting from flight to quality trades. The soft jobs report and lack of a hint from Yellen of an imminent policy shift indicate the FOMC will remain sidelined this week. Brexit uncertainties and fears of financial market instability should the U.K. vote for Brexit next week, along with weaker growth out of Japan and Asia have seen the futures push out a possible tightening until early 2017. The implied February future suggests a 50-50 bet on a 25 bp hike. We’re still expecting two hikes, with the FOMC acknowledging as much in its forecasts on Wednesday, though we note the Fed is running out of time if it wants to effect such action at a regularly slated meeting, since after Wednesday, there will be only four more, with the November 1, 2 dates seemingly out of the running given the elections.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK CPI Inflation in Britain is expected to have sped up slightly in May, but overall price pressures remain significantly subdued as both external and internal factors continue to weigh on consumer price growth. The annual rate of UK inflation is expected to have picked up to 0.4% in May, after slipping to 0.3% a month before, mostly on the back of an earlier Easter this year compared with the previous year. Core inflation, which strips out volatile prices of food and energy, is also seen edging up to 1.3% from 1.2% measured a month before.

• US Retail Sales US May retail sales data is out today should reveal a 0.6% (median 0.3%) headline increase with a 0.6% (median 0.3%) increase for the ex-autos figure as well. This follows April figures of 1.3% for the headline and 0.8% for ex-autos. The increase in May vehicle sales and our expectations for further gains in gasoline prices should help lift the headline

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets declined in holiday thinned trade, following on losses on Wall Street and Europe yesterday. China and Taiwan were closed for a holiday. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down. Oil prices retreated, putting pressure on commodity companies and investors are holding back ahead of Chinese data releases over the weekend and the Fed meeting next week. More support then for core European bond futures, with 10-year Gilt and Bund yields already touching new record lows yesterday. Comments from ECB’s Jazbec, who confirmed the central bank’s wait and see stance, saying there is no need for new stimulus at the moment, may keep a lid on Bunds, however. The calendar has final German inflation data and French production numbers as well as Norway CPI data.

Japan tertiary Industry activity: A surprise rise in the level of services purchased by businesses for June to 1.4% near double expectations of 0.7%. The may figure was also revised higher to -0.5% from -0.7% April was -0.1%. USDJPY traded higher and is currently north of 107.00.

Brexit Would Undermine Europe’s Reform Prospects: The Brexit referendum on June 23 and the Spanish election on June 26 could well turn out to be decisive for the future of the EU, but also the monetary union. If the U.K. decides to leave and protest parties win the day in Spain, the chances of any real structural reforms in Europe will get ever more remote. At the same time a U.K. exit would set a dangerous precedent and play into the hands of protest parties in Germany, which are already calling for Germany’s exit from the Eurozone.

US Reports: revealed upside wholesale trade surprises and a tight round of claims figures that raised GDP prospects for both Q1 and Q2, and lifted our June payroll estimate to 210k from 200k. June payrolls will benefit from a reversal of May’s Verizon and weather distortions. We raised our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%, after a boost in Q1 GDP growth to 1.2% from 0.8%. We saw firm April wholesale inventory and sales data after a March inventory boost that left a second month of increases and a third month of stronger sales than inventories. For claims, we saw a 4k drop to a lean 264k that left a five-week string of declines that unwound elevated May levels.

Main Macro Events Today

• Canadian Employment We expect employment, to rise 5.0k in May after the 2.1k drop in April. May was a challenging month for Canada’s economy, with wild fires forcing the evacuation of Fort McMurray and shuttering oil sand production in the regions. Statistics Canada has not let on how these evacuations will be treated. Will they count the evacuated workers as not employed or will they just be excluded from the tally? Our projection assumes they will be excluded from the survey. If they are included in the survey, we could see a hefty decline. Unemployment is seen steady at 7.1%.

• University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment The Preliminary release is expected to fall to 94.1 from 94.7 last month (which itself has revised down from 95.8). The April figure was 89.0. The IBD/TIPP Poll for the month fell to 48.2 from 48.7 but we except the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort measure to average a higher 42.7 in June.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with Japan underperforming as the Yen strengthened ahead of BoJ and Fed meetings. Weaker than expected machinery orders added to pressure. Chinese CPI was much weaker than expected and PPI better than expected adding to the raft of very mixed news. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south despite ongoing advance in oil prices, with the front end WTI future rising further above USD 51 per barrel. Released overnight the RICS U.K. house price balanced dropped more than expected and fell back to 19% in May, while April was revised down to 39.% from 41%. French non-farm payrolls were revised higher to show a rise of 0.3% q/q in Q1. Still to come, Germany and the U.K. release trade data but the focus will likely be on Draghi’s speech at the economic forum in Brussels.

RBNZ maintained the OCR at 2.25%, but maintained scope for further easing if economic data suggest the need. Governor Wheeler said, “Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” The move was anticipated, however, some analysts were suggesting a cut could be possible. The NZD soared on the news to a one year high with the NZDUSD currently trading at 0.7135.  Governor Whelers view on further easing later this year remains consistent and in line with many in the market including ourselves.

Bank of Korea cut rates by 25 bps to 1.25%, upending expectations for another steady 1.50% setting. The surprise cut was driven by concerns the government’s efforts to restructure indebted firms is weighing on the broader economy. A worsening outlook for the economic growth suggested that a rate cut would happen in the near term. The government’s plans to create a fund to facilitate corporate restructuring appears to have prompted them to add stimulus now as opposed to later as they sought to offset any negative impacts such as lost jobs or reduced investment.

US JOLTS report showed job openings rose 118k in April to 5,788k, matching the prior record high set in July 2015, after rising 62k to 5,670k in March (revised down from 5,757k). The rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% (revised from 3.9%). But, the rest of the report wasn’t great. Hirings continued to slip, falling 198k to 5,092k after dropping 220k to 5,290k (revised from 5,292k). Also, the hire rate declined to 3.5% from 3.7%. Quitters dipped 36k to 2,912k after sliding 7k to 2,948k in March (revised from 2,980k). The rate fell to 2.0% from 2.1%. This report’s importance (it was created by and is a favorite of Yellen) for the June FOMC was minimized by the May employment release.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB President Draghi Speaks Due to speak at the Brussels Economic Forum. Always one to watch, following last week’s press conference and yesterday’s initial corporate bond purchases expect more of the same “steady we go”.

• US Initial Jobs claims Following the hiatus caused by the NFP on Friday, expect this week’s initial jobless numbers to followed more closely than usual.  276k expected, median 270K.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese markets moving higher and oil producers gaining as oil prices moved higher, with the front end Nymex future trading above USD 50 per barrel. Chinese trade data showed imports beating estimates and saw the CSI move off earlier lows. US and UK stock futures are lower though, so overall positive leads for European bond markets, which moved higher yesterday, despite broad gains in equities. Gilt and FTSE 100 underperformed as Sterling bounced back from Monday’s drop. The European calendar has Swiss inflation data and UK production numbers. The ECB will start its corporate bond purchase program today, although officials this week indicated that buying may not amount to much.

The World Bank made a sizeable 0.5% cut on its 2016 global growth forecast from January estimation of 2,9% to 2.4%. The cut was made due to persistently low commodity prices, slow demand in advanced economies, weak trade and declining capital flows. Emerging market countries that live from commodity exports have found it hard to adapt to lower prices for oil, metals, and other commodities. According to the bank these economies are accounting for half of the downward revision.  The World Bank expects emerging economies to grow at a meager 0.4 percent pace in 2016, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the January outlook.  Low commodity prices help the commodity-importing emerging market countries that are doing better. However, the benefits of lower prices on energy and other goods have been slow to show up. The World Bank now expects growth in commodity-importing countries will reach 5.8% which represent a downgrade of 0.1% from the January forecast.

Canada’s Ivey PMI fell to 49.4 in May from 53.1 in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, undershooting forecasts for a decline that would have left the index above 50.0 (median was 52.0). The pull-back leaves the Ivey at the weakest level of the year, and is below the most recent foray into contractionary (sub-50) territory in December of 2015 that saw the index fall to 49.9. But while the magnitude of the decline in May was unexpected, it was not shocking given the Fort McMurray fires during the month, and the concerns about the outlook for the region and the impact of stopped oil production on the national economy. Notably, the unadjusted Ivey PMI rose to 58.4 in May from 50.6 in April, revealing the typical move in this series between April and May. However, the index was well below the not seasonally adjusted 65.2 seen last May.

US consumer credit rose $13.4 bln in April following the $28.4 bln March surge (revised from $29.7 bln). Nonrevolving credit continued to pace the strength, posting an $11.8 bln increase versus the prior $17.9 bln jump (revised from $18.6 bln). Revolving credit was up $1.6 versus $11.1 bln (revised from $10.4 bln).

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Industrial Production: The YoY Industrial Production numbers for April are released today and are expected to come in slightly worse than in previous month (-0.4% vs. -0.2). Industrial production in the UK has been contracting since the cycle high in December 2013.

• Canada Housing Starts: We expect housing starts, due today, to slow modestly to a 190.0k unit rate in May from 191.5k in April, as starts continue to unwind from the 219.4k year high rate in February.

• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to ease rates further. The Governor Wheeler said in a policy note that further easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles the middle of the target range. He has also expressed his wish for a lower dollar.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

UK retail numbers rebounded. According to the Confederation of British Industry’s monthly retail sales rebounded to +7 on CBI’s index. This was in line with expectations in a Reuters poll and up from -13 in April. April number was the lowest reading since the beginning of 2012. At the same time expectations for June fell to -5, the weakest month-ahead reading since mid-2013. According to the CBI orders placed with suppliers fell at the fastest pace since March 2009.

RBA remained put. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the rates at record low levels at 1.75% as it sees sustainable growth in the economy. The bank regards the current policy consistent with the economic situation. The decision was widely expected but still AUD rallied against all the major counterparts except CAD. While Australian dollar lost 0.1% against CAD it gained 2% against JPY. In the light of this wording from the central bank it appears that further rate cuts aren’t likely. However, should the economic conditions worsen RBA surely will consider further rate cuts.

The UK “Remain” campaign that supports the idea of staying in the European Union has a narrow one-point lead over the “Leave” campaign, according to a YouGov poll for the Times posted Monday. According to the latest YouGov poll 43% of respondents intend to vote to keep Britain in the EU, while 42% support an exit vote in the referendum. Britons will vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc.

Chair Yellen didn’t provide any fresh insight on the timing of the next rate hike, leaving the door open for action over the next several months. Fed Chair Yellen reiterated gradual funds rate hikes are likely appropriate if conditions met, including labor market strengthening and rising inflation. Giving a nod to Friday’s employment report, she warned “one should never attach too much significance to any single monthly report.” Nevertheless, it’s still an important indicator and the Fed needs to monitor the conditions carefully, she added. Generally she noted that overall labor market developments have been quite positive, though she also cited several negatives, including high unemployment rates among various minority groups. Elsewhere, she believes foreign financial and economic conditions have stabilized. That she sees positives outweighing the negatives, the FOMC will remain on course for more normalization this year, and we still see July very much on the table. Fed takes its mandate and objectives from Congress, she said, in answering a question on whether the FOMC’s primary concern is GDP growth and the unemployment rate over the next few quarters, relative to the degree the Fed looks at the negative effects of low rates (including risk taking behavior). She also stressed the Fed not only looks at the near term, but at the medium and longer terms as well.

Main Macro Events Today

• Euro Area GDP: Eurozone Gross Domestic Product numbers are out today and are expected to come in unchanged from the previous numbers. The QoQ GDP change is expected to come in at 0.5% and YoY at 1.5%.

• US Non-Farm Productivity: The report on the US Non-Farm productivity for the first quarter 2016 is due today and is expected to improve from -1.0 to -0.6. Over the recent years productivity has improved towards the year end after a decline in the first half of the year.

• Canada Ivey PMI: A slight decline is expected in Canada May Ivey Purchasing Managers Index. The numbers are expected to ease from 53.1 in April to 52 in May.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed among the dollar majors and other currency pairings as markets hunker down into the release of the May U.S. jobs report today. The yen has remained firm with USDJPY edging out an 18-day low of 108.49, surpassing yesterday’s low by only 3 pips. The yen has been trading firm since Wednesday’s announcement by Japanese PM Abe’s of “bold economic measures” later in the year, along with a bigger delay than anticipated in the planned sales tax hike (to at least 2019), which seemed to suggest a shift in policy toward fiscal and away from monetary. Elsewhere, EURUSD has seen barely more than a 15 pip range centred around 1.1150, settling after yesterday’s short-lived foray above 1.1200. The U.S. employment report will arrive today with recent data having failed to ignite expectations for a Fed rate hike as soon as June 15. We’re forecasting a 190k increase in nonfarm payrolls, but note risk is to the downside (the median forecast is for a 150k headline). Hourly earnings and average workweek components will be watched closely as they’re also key to the FOMC’s decision, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 4.9% from 5.0%. Unless we see an outcome near to our forecast, or above, the dollar will likely take a tumble.

European Outlook: Bund and Gilt futures managed robust gains yesterday, as Draghi left the door open for further easing, although the lack of further measures in the pipeline left stock markets little changed at the end of the day. FTSE 100 stock futures are slightly higher, and Asian equity markets also managed slight gains, but U.S. stock futures are down and trading remains cautious ahead of U.S. jobs data. Today’s European calendar has final Eurozone Services PMIs and the first reading of the U.K. Services PMI as well as Eurozone retail sales, but it is the Brexit referendum that is starting to cast a big shadow over markets and keeps investors cautious. Oil prices are also little changed, with the front end WTI future holding slightly above USD 49 per barrel.

ECB – Nothing New in the Pipeline: The ECB not only maintained interest rates today, but also implicitly confirmed that it is putting all its hopes on the measures already announced, but yet to be implemented, and that nothing new is in the pipeline. True, the door to additional measures stays open and especially the Brexit referendum remains a near term, but also medium term risk that could spark turmoil and put a strain not just on financial markets, also the European Union and ultimately EMU. Still, in the central scenario the ECB seems done, with the ball firmly in the court of governments now, to push on with the structural reforms necessary to complement the accommodative monetary policy.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan: raising rates in June or July is getting to the point where it makes sense, said the moderate non-voter, who noted that inflation picked up in the past 3-months and GDP is seen near 2% this year. He sees room for the labor force participation rate to improve, but notes we’re “pretty darn close” to full employment. Kaplan expects the labor force participation rate to fall in the next 10-years to 61%, however, due to demographics. Overall, this is relatively hawkish, though not out of line with recent Fedspeak.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Employment data NFP May employment data is out today and should reveal a 190k (median 155k) headline which would follow 160k in April and 208k in March. We expect the unemployment rate to tick down to the prior cycle low of 4.9% (median 4.9%) from 5.0% in April and March. There is downside risk to the release from the higher initial claims average for the month and the drop in producer sentiment.

• US Non-manufacturing ISM The May ISM-NMI is also out today to close out the May producer sentiment releases. We expect a headline decline to 55.0 (median 55.3) from 55.7 last month and 54.5 in March. Most other measures of producer sentiment declined for the month so there is some downside risk to the release as we discuss in our May 23 commentary but the ISM managed to increase to 51.3 from 50.8 in April.

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