Free Forex Signals for 10.08.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The FX markets have been relatively quiet and global equity markets trading mixed over the last 24 hours. U.S. and European markets were up yesterday, while Asian markets traded mostly lower in overnight trading in the wake of a week long holiday in China. Commodity prices have been correcting after yesterday’s price rally, this has seen the AUD and other commodity dependent currencies getting whipped as commodity prices adjust to the possibility of a further delay in the U.S. Fed rate hike.

The EURUSD is trading higher in European trading having now cleared the 1.1280 resistance level, as the IMF said that the U.S. Fed should wait for more signs to raise rates, with IMF’s Vinals saying that “wage and price pressures don’t justify a Fed rate rise and that waiting a couple of months is less risky than a premature lift-off.” The IMF also said that ECB policies are gaining traction while also warning that deleveraging in China will require great care and that it sees a “heightened” chance of global asset-market disruption.

For the moment, EURUSD daily traders will focus on whether today’s resistance (1.1280) in European session price break will hold and close above (1.1280), or if it will leave a less meaningful shadow for the day and close below (1.1280). EURUSD bulls will prefer to see a clean close on price above 1.1280 in order to keep alive any attempt to carry the pair towards the 1.1460 next key resistance level. I would also like to point out again that current price is still holding well above the daily 10,50 SMA bull cross event that accrued in mid August. This bullish moving average double crossover observation technically adds to support the case for EURUSD long holders, at least in the short term.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR traded sharply higher in European trade as a technical upward break of the 1.1280 recent resistance area has been penetrated. The EUR has been moving upward even through recent German and France economic data have been on the weak side with a dive in German exports and an unsuspected dip in French business sentiment.

The AUD trades lower as expectations of continued weak growth in China and the rest of Asia point to softer growth in Australia. The CHF is higher across the board against the majors as the CHF is still the best risk off place in the market. The USD and the GBP are mostly softer ahead of the U.S. FOMC minutes and the BoE Governors speech later today.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Trade Balance: German trade surplus narrowed as exports fell. Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 19.5 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports dropped 5.2% m/m, after a 2.2% m/m rise in July. The fact that imports also dropped a strong 3.1% m/m, suggests that like in manufacturing data, the timing of the school holidays in the different German states may have distorted the numbers somewhat, but the fact that the drop in exports far outstrips the decline in imports and is in fact the strongest declines since the recession days of 2009 is worrying and ties in with other data showing a slowdown in activity. Exports were still up 6.6% y/y in the first eight months of the year, however, and the accumulated trade surplus widened to EUR 163.9 bln from EUR 136.0 bln in the first eight months of 2013.

• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: It is widely expected that the Bank of England will keep policy on hold; the focus today will be on the minutes.

• CAD Housing Starts: Starts are expected to slow to a 205k unit rate in September (median 204.0k) from the 216.9k pace in August. A pull-back in multiple starts after the 19.5% surge in August is expected to slow total starts in September. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. Expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity.

• USD FOMC Minutes: From Sept 16-17 meeting that a big focus given surprise rate lift-off delay. So far, the markets view that conditions for hike are approaching, but not there yet.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.06.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price failed to close above the key 1.1280 area during the previous day’s sessions; however, the prevailing trend is that the pair continues to remain without clear direction. Buyers appear to be emerging sporadically around current price levels and are offering some short term support. The pair does retain the potential to create a lower top from the August high price (1.1713) just below the 1.1460 area; for this to play out we would like to see at least a daily close above 1.13. On the downside there remains the risk of a price breakdown should we see a clean break below the 1.1090’s.

The global stock market rally continued in Asia, hopes that weak data means global monetary policy will remain accommodative for longer and that the ECB will extend its QE program that will provide support to the stock markets. In Australia, the RBA maintained its 2.00% cash rate as expected, the BoJ started its 2-day policy meeting and the BoE will follow today. ECB president Draghi will speak this evening.

UK house prices show signs of cooling, with the September Halifax index showing a 0.9% m/m decline. The market has been in a mini-boom since the general election in May, underpinned by a record level of employment and rising real wages, along with under-supply of residential properties.

The AUD rose on the RBA’s refrain from cutting interest rates, which saw AUD-USD lift to a fresh two-week peak. The USD, EUR and the JPY held in relatively narrow ranges. German manufacturing orders fell 1.8% m/m in August data. This data supports the view that the ECB might be headed for an expansion in its QE program, and this may pressure the EUR over the longer term.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The AUD is rallying on the RBA’s refrain from cutting interest rates today. There had been a minority view anticipating an easing given the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Aside from the central bank’s inaction, there was a lack of clear policy guidance in its statement, which maintained the line on the currency as “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices,” a clause that’s been used for three consecutive months now.

The USD is slightly weaker after the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell in September, the EUR is trading mostly higher in the wake of higher retail sales , however we are expecting EUR price action later today when the ECB President makes his speech.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Trade Balance: Australian trade data for August showed an unexpected widening in the deficit, to A$ 3.095 bln from A$ 2.4 bln. A combo of a weaker currency and lower commodity prices drove the deterioration in the deficit. The deficit data, and a souring in sentiment on Europe stock bourses, have taken the upside out for the Aussie dollar.

• USD Trade Balance: August trade data is out later today and it’s expected to see an 18.2% expansion in the deficit to a -$49.5 bln (median -$43.0 bln) headline from -$41.9 bln in July and a recent low of -$38.5 bln in February. Exports are expected to decline 2.2% on the month following a 0.4% increase in July and imports are expected to climb 1.6% following a 1.1% decline in July. A new release on advance trade figures has recently started being released and the data for August point toward an expected widening in the trade gap.

• CAD Trade Balance : It is expected that the deficit, due Today, to worsen to -C$1.0 bln in August (median -C$1.1 bln) from the -C$0.6 bln shortfall in July. We could see a 0.6% m/m gain in exports after the 2.3% gain in July. A weaker CAD and improvement stateside in industries that matter are supportive of underlying export growth. However, the plunge in oil prices during August looms large and could knock total export values lower relative to July. Imports are expected to rise 1.5% m/m in August following the 1.7% rise in July.

• EUR ECB President Speech: With market expectations of an extension of the QE program mounting anything but very dovish comments from Draghi this evening will be a disappointment for markets.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.05.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD daily chart bull cross of the 10, 50 SMA moving average is proving to be a reliable indicator, as short term price action is holding above the 6 week lows since the cross was spotted. Short term bullish price momentum is expected to be maintained since price seems to be bouncing off the bottom end of the 1.1090 – 1.1460 expected trading range. Short term long position holders should be on alert for profit taking around the September 18th high (1.1460), while short traders should watch for a break below 1.1090 that could open up the way towards the 1.0920’s.

Growth worries will leave Fed, BoE on hold, while there is now an increase risk of European Central Bank and Bank of Japan stimulus after the September jobs data was a disappointment across the board. Data showed only a 142k payroll rise after 59k in downward revisions, a 0.2% hours-worked drop with a workweek downtick to 34.5, and a 13k payroll drop in the bellwether goods sector led by mining and factories that translated to a 1.0% hours-worked plunge. Hourly earnings were flat. The U.S. labor force dropped to a 5.05% new cycle-low, while the labor force participation rate plunged to a 62.4% 38-year low.

China is on a holiday through Wednesday and Australia is closed today for Labor Day.

The magnitude of slowing in the global economy is the biggest uncertainty facing investors and central banks at the moment. The disappointing U.S. jobs data, on the back of the FOMC’s decision to delay liftoff, decreases investor confidence. The upside is that consumer spending and record U.S. auto sales give a better picture of the U.S. economy. Investors will now focus on the upcoming data out this week for further short term direction.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The USD is weaker across the board and sold off immediately on the disappointing U.S. jobs report. The impact on the Fed rate-hike decision is more uncertainty and markets will increase in volatility with a growing feeling that the Fed has miscalculated.

The GBP is trading lower as the U.K. economy continues to look a little softer and expectations are that the BoE will not tighten monetary policy prior to a move by the Fed. The PMI fell slightly to 51.5 in September from 51.6 in August, which was revised up from 51.5. The reading has been running above 50 for thirty straight months. The pace of growth seen in the second and third quarters of this year have been weaker than seen earlier in the current growth sequence.

The CAD jumped immediately after the US employment numbers were released. The much smaller than expected numbers spooked the markets because the widely anticipated Fed rate hike now looks as though it will have to wait well into next year.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Services PMI: unexpectedly dove to a 29-moth low of 53.3 in the headline reading of the September survey. Total business activity and new business growth both came in at 29-month lows. Outstanding business activity consequently grew at only a fractional rate, and the long-term outlook fell to its weakest reading since August 2014. Input prices jumped, due to salary pressures, though output prices rose only slightly while overall price pressures remained weak by historical standards. The only bright spot was employment growth, with job creation the best since June.

• USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM-NMI is expected to fall to 58.0 from 59.0 in August. The July spike set a new post-recession high. Forecast risk: downward, given weakness in earlier month releases. Market risk: downward, as a run of weak data could impact rate hike time-lines. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.02.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD short-term trend remains flat and range bound with a price recovery towards the 1.1460 area looking unlikely as long as price remains below the 1.1280 level. Yesterday’s U.S. report revealed a disappointing September ISM drop and a downward bump in the construction spending though the three months ending in August was not enough to push the EURUSD to close above the lower end of the 1.12’s (61.8%). Potential trade setups for the short term are to enter short positions near 1.1280 for a 1.0930-1.0920 target; alternatively, on a clean break of 1.13, long positions could be opened for a 1.1460 initial target.

The European calendar yesterday was focused on manufacturing PMI readings. The overall Eurozone September manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 52.0, in line with the preliminary reading and down from 52.3 in the previous month. France is returning to growth and only Greece is in contraction territory, although, even the Greek manufacturing PMI has started to pick up again. So, pretty much a confirmation of what the ECB sees – ongoing growth, but with reduced momentum, even if the recovery is broadening somewhat.

The UK manufacturing PMI was slightly higher than expected at 51.5, which is only marginally down from August’s 51.6. The sector continues to expand, although it is holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4.

Bank of Japan sees little immediate need for adding stimulus according to Bloomberg headlines.

Fed Williams repeated his rate hike call for “sometime later this year” in his speech from Salt Lake City. The news shouldn’t sway the markets much ahead of today’s payrolls report.

NYMEX crude has fallen back to $45.20 lows, after peaking at $47.08 earlier. The move comes as the National Hurricane center shifts the path of the hurricane further East, and away from energy infrastructure on the northeastern coast.

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The JPY is weaker as Japan’s Tankan survey of business sentiment this week found the index for large manufacturers to be slightly worse than expected. A pattern that has been persisting since mid-August with periodic bouts of demand for the safe haven of the yen having been interspersed with bouts of relative calm. In the background are expectations for the BoJ to expand its QQE program at its Oct-30 policy meeting.

The EUR has drifted modestly lower, to the 1.1160 area after failing to hold gains above 1.1200 on several attempts over the last day.

The GBP is mostly stronger as the U.K. construction PMI rose to 59.9 in the headline of the September survey, up from the 57.3 reading of the August survey and above the 57.5 median forecast. Residential construction rose at the quickest pace in a year, and job creation lifted to its best level in three months.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR ECB Draghi’s Speech: Draghi is taking a “wait and see stance” and with core inflation actually trending higher, labour markets stabilizing, wage growth picking up and credit conditions also improving it is not hard to see why.

• USD Nonfarm payrolls: September nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205k, with a 195k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 5.1% last month.

• USD Factory Orders: August factory orders are expected to fall 1.5% with inventories down 0.1%.Forecast risk: downward, given the weaker top-line durable goods numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timing.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.01.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to lack direction within the daily chart and it is beginning to appear that a trading range may be forming between the 1.1460 and 1.1090 levels over the short term. This period of lackluster price action should remain as the market waits for the U.S. jobs data due out on Friday. Traders should look towards commodity prices for any signs of a bottoming which may contradict data that still points to slower global growth. The likelihood of a stronger USD and weaker EUR should remain as the main trend into the year end as fallout from the European automotive industry and the likelihood of further ECM QE increases.

Today’s mixed European PMI readings will give ECB policy makers something to argue about at the next council meeting, especially as downside risks are picking up in light of developments in the global economy and the fallout from the emission scandal for European automakers. The current mixed readings are clearly showing up in the EUR as price has yet to choose a direction with trader’s undecided on which side of the trade to take.

The global stock market rebound is still continuing for now, despite a dip in Japan’s Tankan index, and stabilization in China’s manufacturing PMI at contraction levels. The USD has been trading firmer against the EUR and GBP over the last 5 trading days on the back of a strong Wall Street close and follow-up gain in Asian stock markets. The AUD and CAD, meanwhile, rallied to one-week highs versus the USD, while the NZD hit a two-week peak.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors as the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggests a slight slowdown in overall growth dynamics, but a more balanced picture across the Eurozone.

The GBP is trading mixed after the UK manufacturing PMI came in fractionally above market forecast.

The CHF is sharply lower in the wake of an unexpected dip in the Swiss SVME manufacturing PMI.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI is fractionally above forecast at 51.5 in September data. The survey this month indicates stabilization in the sector at moderate expansion, holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4, which was seen in June. Sterling has traded modestly higher in the wake of the data.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 270k (median 270k) in the week-ended September 26. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,213k for the week-ended September 19. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause.

• USD Manufacturing ISM: The September ISM is expected to rise to 52.0 from 51.1 in August. Forecast risk: upward, given strong component data in the early month reports. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.25.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The 1.1261 resistance was violated briefly yesterday but the sellers overcame the buyers pretty quickly and the 4h chart created a bearish pin bar with a close below the 1.1261 resistance. Since then the price has been moving lower creating a daily shooting star. This together with Yellen’s promise to raise rates by the end of the year 2015 suggests further dollar strength and euro weakness. However, in the daily picture EURUSD is still range bound and it’s therefore likely that the potential moves lower are gradual at first as the market needs to work its way through the support levels. Price is trading now at the lower Bollinger Bands and near historical support with Stochastics trying to tick higher in the oversold levels. The nearest support range is at 1.1017 – 1.1087 while the first daily resistance is at 1.1296, the yesterday’s high.

Fed Chair Yellen expects a rate increase this year, saying that “Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate that achieving these conditions will likely entail an increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter.” Of course, she gave herself ample wiggle room, saying “But if the economy surprises us, our judgments on appropriate policy will change.”Also, she cautioned that the Fed “…cannot be certain about the pace at which the headwinds still restraining the domestic economy will continue to fade.” So, a bit more certainty on the Fed path, but with plenty of space to delay rate liftoff if the Fed judges the economy is not ready. As for the economy, she said it is “no longer far away from full employment” on balance. “In contrast,” she noted, “inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s objectives over the past several years, and over the past 12 months it has been essentially zero.” Inflation expectations remain well anchored, she said, while temporary effects (declining energy and non-energy import prices) are the main cause of weak inflation.

Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow model dipped to 1.4%compared to its 1.5% estimate a week ago coinciding with the FOMC decision. As the regional Fed noted: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.4 percent on September 24, down slightly from 1.5 percent on September 17. The decline occurred on Monday when the model’s forecast for third-quarter real residential investment growth fell in response to the existing home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.” That’s still some distance from the average Blue Chip forecast near 2.5% (down from 3.2% in late July) and compared to our own 3.0% estimate.

The 5.7% August U.S. new home sales surge to a 552k rate extended the July bounce to a 522k (was 507k) pace from an oddly weak 466k (was 481k) seven-month low of in June. New home sales are outperforming pending and existing home sales while undershooting the various construction aggregates. New home sales have risen 104% from the 273k record-low in February of 2011, alongside smaller cyclical climbs of 45% for pending home sales and 54% for existing home sales from lows in 2010. We saw larger cyclical climbs of 136% for housing starts and 128% for permits from lows in 2009, and 126% for new home construction from a low in 2011. Median prices rose by 0.5% to $292,700, though the y/y gain fell to to 0.3% in August from 3.8% (was 2.0%) in July, while new home inventories rose by the same 0.5% to a 216k five-year high, following downward prior revisions.

SNB Plays The Waiting Game: The SNB confirmed its monetary policy stance at last week’s meeting and there was no major surprise in the statement. The central bank’s main scenario, as reflected also in yesterday’s quarterly bulletin, remains for a continuation of the moderate recovery in the global economy and a stabilisation in Swiss growth.

 

Currency Movers Charts   

In yesterday’s report we discussed the declined in UK Sterling and pointed out that GBPUSD is at levels that could attract buyers. This is what happened and today, while EUR is down the GBP is up. Due to euro weakness Sterling has risen most against the EUR but there are other interesting GBP pairs too. GBPJPY formed a bullish pin bar yesterday and is enjoying good upside momentum today. The nearest resistance level is at 186. GBPCHFbehaved very similarly and is up today after forming a bullish pin bar yesterday. The nearest resistance is at 1.5100.

I said in yesterday’s analysis that AUDUSD is approaching daily Bollinger bands and support which indicates that it is time to close the shorts opened after the shooting stars were formed. The pair touched the 1.5 sd band yesterday and has been reacting higher since. Today AUDJPY is moving higher after the AUDUSD found support yesterday and Japan’s inflation report adds to what we view as strong pressure for further easing measures. This argues for AUDJPY to move higher. The next resistance is at 85.88.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan’s core CPI fell 0.1% y/y in August after the flat (0.0%) reading in July. Core CPI rose at a 0.1% y/y pace in June and May. The core grew at a 0.3% y/y clip in April. We saw a 2.2% y/y rate in March, with dramatic slowing in annual growth since April due to the April 2014 tax hike. Total CPI grew at a 0.2% y/y pace in August, matching July after the 0.4% y/y rate in June. The global price backdrop continues to run contrary to the BoJ’s efforts to boost prices, as imported energy products produce a powerful drag on the core CPI (excludes fresh food but includes energy). This report adds to what we view as strong pressure for further easing measures, although we remain unconvinced of the effectiveness of ultra-accommodative policy on Japan’s economy.

• US GDP: The third release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be unrevised at 3.7% (median 3.7%) from the second release and 0.6% in Q1. Revisions should be mostly offsetting. We expect consumption to be revised up by $8 bln, construction up by $5 bln and net exports up by $2 bln. For downward revisions we expect intellectual property to be revised down by $4 bln and inventories to be revised down by $9 bln.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The second release on September Michigan Sentimentshould reveal an 87.0 (median 87.0) headline which would be revised up from 85.7 in the first release but still down from 91.9 in August. The current conditions index declined to 100.3 from 105.1 in the first release and the expectations index dropped to 76.4 from 83.4 in August. There has been a relatively consistent tendency for upward revisions in the second release over the past two years and this should lend some upside risk to the release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.24.2015

EURUSD, Daily

Draghi disappointed and wasn’t as dovish as expected. This helped the EURUSD rally. This morning the pair has been fighting the 1.1214 resistance today and even formed a 4h pin bar at the level but has now pushed itself through the level. The last week’s low at 1.1214 caused the resistance. As the pair is trading near the lower end of the weekly price range and encouraged by the turnaround at the support yesterday traders were able to push the price higher. Nearest support range is at 1.1017 – 1.1087 while the first resistances are at 1.1261 and then 1.1388. The pair will face 4h Bollinger bands and the 50 period SMA at the same levels with the 1.1261 resistance.

Elsewhere EURCHF has reinstalled itself in the mid-1.09s after ECB’s Draghi didn’t produce the dovish sound-bites that many had expected at his testimony before the European parliament yesterday. The Swiss economy minister Schneider-Ammann also said yesterday that “we travel in the direction of purchasing power parity,” and that “his journey is not yet finished, as purchasing power remains significantly above 1.20 Swiss francs per euro.”

The SNB’s announcement of unchanged policy last Thursday, and a renewed pledge to intervene in the currency market if needed, had little impact. The central bank continues to class the franc as being “significantly overvalued,” though it has had some success in undermining the franc’s status as a safe haven, with deeply negative deposit rates having caused a steady drip feed of yield-searching Swiss fund outflows. The franc is trading some 6% lower than levels seen a couple of months ago.

German Ifo business confidence unexpectedly improved in September, driven, not by an improvement in the current conditions reading but a rise in the expectations number, the first since July. The current conditions index actually dipped. Overall readings remain at high levels and the diffusion index showed that optimists now outnumber pessimists across all sectors. The breakdown also reveals that sentiment remains driven by consumption and retail trade, with low unemployment, sizeable wage gains and low inflation boosting real disposable income.

German consumer confidence drops sharply. The Gfk consumer confidence reading for October fell to 9.6 from 9.9 in the previous month. The much weaker than expected number adds to concerns about the outlook, although the overall reading remains at a very high level in a long term comparison. The breakdown, which is available until September, shows a sharp decline in overall business expectations, which also depressed income expectations and the willingness to buy.

French Sep business confidence held steady at 100 in September, but manufacturing confidence improved on a marked rise in the own company production outlook to 14 from 8 in the previous month. The better than expected numbers tie in with the improvement in France’s PMI readings, released yesterday, which suggested a move back into expansion territory for both services and manufacturing sectors. Still, today’s survey also showed the reading for overall order-books falling further into negative territory, despite the fact that foreign order books remained stable.

 

Currency Movers Charts  

Over the last five days GBP has lost a lot of ground against all the other competitors except AUD which has been the weakest of the lot. This has brought the GBPUSD to levels that could attract buyers. It is trading at weekly Bollinger bands and at a daily pivotal candle but the nearest resistance level is fairly close at 1.5330 while the nearest support level is at 1.5162. Other GBP pairs are also near support levels: GBPCAD bounced yesterday and formed a daily pin bar and GBPNZD has fallen to 4h Bollinger Bands and has pivotal support nearby.

AUDUSD is approaching daily Bollinger bands and support which indicates that it is time to close the shorts opened after the shooting stars were formed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of September 19th should reveal an increase to 270k (median 271k) after a prior dip to 264k from 275k. Claims are continuing to strike a lean path as we head into fall and September looks poised to average 272k from 275k in August and 272k in July. This supports our forecast for further strength in September employment where we expect a 205k nonfarm payroll headline with the unemployment rate steady at 5.1%. 
• US New Home Sales: August new home sales should reveal a 5.4% headline increase to a 515k (median 515k) pace in August following a 507k clip in July and a 481k pace in June. Major housing measures have eased in August with both existing home sales and starts dropping back from firm summer readings. However, sentiment remains strong and the NAHB climbed to 61 in August from 60 in July. 
• US Durable Goods: August durable goods data is expected to show a 3.0% (median -0.5%) decline for orders with shipments down 0.5% and inventories up 0.2%. This follows respective July figures of 2.2% for orders, 1.0% for shipments and -0.1% for inventories. August saw a general slowing in other transport and industrial measures with industrial production down 0.4% for the month, Boeing orders falling to 52 from 101 and the ISM declining to 51.1 from 52.7. 
• Fed Chair Yellen’s upcoming speech is keeping the markets nervous, though we doubt she’ll change her tune or give any new policy clues. The FOMC has already lost some credibility by not hiking rates last week while citing concerns over China, global growth, and low inflation, and back tracking would further erode market trust. She should leave the door open for a rate hike next month, or in December by reiterating all meetings are in play, and stating the Committee is monitoring data and financial conditions. The Fed’s Lockhart speaks again shortly and is expected to repeat prior comments.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.22.2015

EURUSD, 240 min

In the last Currency Movers report I pointed out several technical factors that should cause the bulls to be cautious. And they sure did! EURUSD tumbled down from the 1.1463 resistance identified in the report. Today the pair is trading above 1.1151 support level we identified in the chart in September 18^th analysis. Today’s low has been 1.1153. Stochastics is now getting oversold while price is trading near lower Bollinger Bands and the 50 day SMA. We have a pin bar in the 240 min chart as buyers are trying to step in but there has been no follow through. The resistance at 1.1210 has been holding them back.  This suggests price should move further into support and closer to the 50 day SMA before it can attempt a turnaround. As the pair is at support it is likely that the weakness is soon overdone and we’ll first see a slowdown in the rate of decline and then a counter-move to the down move that took place over the last two days. If this takes place the 1.1280 looks like a realistic target for the move after which I’m expecting further decline. Significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1093 and 1.1280.

Yesterday’s dollar-driven decline in EURUSD came at the wake of hawkish remarks from Fed’s Bullard and, to a lesser extent, Lacker. Bullard, presently a non-FOMC voter, said that there is a “powerful case to be made” for rate lift-off. This contrasted with ECB’s Praet, who said in remarks after the European close that the central bank would “forcefully” react should the inflation environment worsen. There is a bearish case to be made for EURUSD despite the Fed’s relatively dovish guidance, as the dollar has yield advantage, particularly at the long end, and with the ECB likely to counter any euro strength with its own dovish guidance.

The September UK CBI industrial trends undershot expectations, unexpectedly dropping to a -7 reading in the headline total orders reading, down form 0 in August, though above July’s cycle low at -10. Export orders dove sharply to -24, down from -6 in August, while the expectations balance fell to a +9 reading, the lowest since October 2013. The strong pound, which is near seven-year highs in trade-weighted terms, is blighting the export performance, which continues to be the weak link in the manufacturing sector.

Praet: ECB would “forcefully react” if inflation objective pushed out further. Praet was careful not to sound too pessimistic about global headwinds, saying that the ECB doesn’t “want to create of course self-fulfilling expectations at the same time by conveying pessimistic messages” and repeated the central bank’s message from the last meeting that it is “too early to draw firm conclusions about the environment, it is too early to tell”, but he also stressed that the ECB doesn’t want to deny “that the situation can be very unfavorable in the European context”. The central bank is hedging its bets while watching global developments, but also forex markets. The currency may well be the decisive factor that could trigger further ECB easing, even if Draghi won’t admit that. Earlier in the day Praet still said that there are some signs that inflation has turned the corner, but the comments confirm that the ECB wants to send a dovish message and Draghi will have a chance to clarify the ECB’s stance at tomorrow’s testimony to the European Parliament.

SF Fed study says market based inflation expectations are poor predictors of future inflation. Remember the FOMC has been distinguishing between market based measures and survey based measures in its recent policy statements, noting that the former had moved lower while the latter had remained stable. The market based measures that were studied were TIPS break evens and inflation swap rates, while the authors looked at 2 types of survey measures, including the Philly Fed’s Survey of Private Forecasters and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, along with methods incorporating “no-change” forecasts based on current CPI values. According to the study published in the current FRBSF Economic Letter, “a simple constant inflation rate corresponding to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target consistently performs best.” Maybe the FOMC shouldn’t worry too much about the softening in the market based measures?

Currency Movers Charts  

Hawkish sentiment from the Fed officials was seen to move USD higher and EUR down after EURUSD turned lower from the level we identified in Friday’s report. This has brought the EUR pairs near support levels today. EURUSD is trading at a pivotal support while EURJPY has declined to daily Bollinger Bands near levels that attracted buyers on September 4^th. EURAUD moved at first closer to a support at 1.5566 (also at Bollinger Bands) but rallied and created a 4h pin bar. EURGBP looks weaker as it is trading below resistance levels but has no clear support before 0.7170.

Safe haven currency JPY has gathered momentum today as global stock markets are down together with commodities such as Copper and Crude Oil. AUDJPY is falling after violating support at 85.82 and forming a shooting star candle three days ago.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Australian House Price Index: The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 4.7% in the June quarter 2015. The index rose 9.8% through the year to the June quarter 2015.

• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing: UK government borrowing surpasses expectations in August data, rising to GBP 12.1 bln in the non-financial figure. The consensus forecast had been for GBP 9.2 bln, while borrowing was up by GBP 1.4 bln on August 2014. The picture looks better in the financial year to date (from April), with borrowing down GBP 4.4 bln over this period. While the deficit has halved under the government’s austerity program, net government debt still remains over 80% of GDP.

• US Housing Price Index: markets expect the Housing Price Index number to come in at 0.4%. Home price index rose 0.2% in June from May’s 0.5%. On an annual basis, prices are up 5.6% y/y.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Free Forex Signals for 09.18.2015

EURUSD, 240 min

In yesterday’s report I drew attention to EURUSD creating a pin bar and a higher low. This indicated further bullishness for euro but the upside was capped by the 1.1328 – 1.1378 resistance area. As expected the pair didn’t move beyond the resistance before the Fed announcement yesterday. The decision to hold the rates at zero propelled EURUSD to the session high of 1.1441. Today Stochastics are in the overbought region while the price is approaching the upper daily Bollinger Bands. In the weekly picture price is inside the upper Bollinger Bands and right below the 50 week SMA. This is a reason for some caution for the euro bulls. The price is approaching the 1.1463 – 1.1520 resistance area after we’ve seen some follow through for yesterday’s upward momentum. The nearest support levels are 1.1374 and 1.1388.

FOMC left rates unchanged, citing concerns over global weakness. The key sentence in the statement was: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.” The Fed again noted weakness in net exports, and the fact that market based inflation measures had moved lower. It’s also “monitoring developments abroad,” while it sees balanced risks on the economy and labor market. The FOMC again indicated it will be appropriate to raise rates when it sees further improvement in the labor market and is “reasonably confident” that inflation will moves back to the 2% target over the medium term. Lacker dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. The Fed did reiterate that the economy is expanding at a moderate rate, housing has improved further, and the underutilization of labor resources has diminished.

Yellen said U.S. monetary policy is directed toward achieving the dual mandates set out by Congress. Of course policy changes have many cross currents, and capital flow implications. The exchange rate is one of a number of channels through which policy works. There are effects on the exchange rate, and yes the Fed needs to take those into account. The risk of a government shutdown played NO role in the Fed’s decision not to hike rates. Yellen said there is rationale for a rate hike now, but noted that financial conditions have tightened to some extent, and the situation abroad has become “more uncertain of late.” She added though, that the she doesn’t want to overplay the impact of overseas developments. She also reiterated that the path of policy is more important than the timing of the first move, and that most members still see a hike this year. The decision won’t depend on any particular data. In answering the first question, she said we can’t expect uncertainty to be fully resolved, but the Fed wanted to take a little more time to assess conditions. She has no recipe for what the FOMC wants to see before tightening. On the possibility for October, all meetings are “live.” So October remains a possibility, and the Fed would call a press conference if needed.

Fed funds futures are on the move higher after the FOMC remained on hold. Though prices in the futures market are still gyrating, the market is currently pricing in a 25 bp hike for December with a little better than 50-50 probability. We suspect improved market stability and less angst over global developments will open the door for an October hike, though still soft inflation should make December a better bet.

Currency Movers Charts   

As the Fed decided not to raise rates the dollar weakness drove other currencies higher. This was especially the case with the commodity price sensitive AUD. Commodities are priced in USD and therefore a lower yielding dollar makes some commodities like Gold more attractive and in general cheaper to buy. This has supported the AUD today.

AUDUSD is trading at a resistance created by 50 day SMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and a historical resistance area between 0.7216 and 0.7276. The pair formed a daily shooting star candle yesterday and is  at the time of the writing challenging the high of the candle. GBPAUD is back to the pin bar it created day before yesterday. This is a level where a historical support coincide with 50 day SMA and the lower Bollinger Bands.

 Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Canadian CPI: We expect CPI to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in August, a slowdown from the 1.3% y/y clip in July. CPI is seen falling 0.2% on a month comparable basis in August after the 0.1% gain in July. Gas prices fell 3.5% in August compared to July, which is expected to drive the decline in month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.2% in August, similar to the action seen in past months of August. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.0% y/y rate in August following the 2.4% clip in July. The expected core CPI figure would, of course, leave the measure at the BoC’s 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions.

• The US CB Leading Indicator:The August index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to grow 0.2%. We expect yields to help support the headline. The six-month annual gain hit 8.8% in July last year, the highest reading since 10.7% seen in April of 2010. The Conference Board’s preferred recession threshold for the LEI is a six-month annualized reading below -3.5% and a six-month diffusion average below 50%. We wouldn’t read much into this index, as the historical swings “line up” with back data due to repeated “best fit” revisions of the index figures rather than a real-time correlation. The Conference Board revises the index in January, given the massive divergence since 2009 between index levels and reported GDP growth.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.