Signals Articles

Final Eurozone PMI – Below Expectations

Forex Analysis
Final Eurozone PMI – Below Expectations

 

EURJPY, 4 Hour,  

Eurozone final services PMI revised down to 53.1 from 54.0 reported initially and versus 53.3 in February. The composite was revised up to 53.1 from 53.0 reported initially on the back of the stronger manufacturing number, but this still leaves the index down from 53.7 in the previous month. So the improvement in confidence that the PMI suggested for the end of the first quarter looks shakier than thought and the country breakdown highlights that even the big four are drifting apart again, with the weakness mainly felt at the core. France in particular continues to underperform amid the lack of structural reforms.

EURJPY continued its decline from Fridays high to the psychological 125.50 level and the 4 Hour 200 Day MA. The JPY has been particularly strong over night as risk off takes hold. There was also a meeting convened between the BOJ, the Japanese finance ministry and the financial regulator, following the meeting Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga said FX levels were being watched with “a sense of urgency”.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD hit Target 1 after the NFP report

Forex Analysis

 GBPUSD hit Target 1 after the NFP report

GBPUSD hit Target 1 after the NFP report

GBPUSD, 240 min

I suggested in my GBPUSD analysis yesterday that we should look for shorts as the pair created a daily shooting star candle and fell outside the rising channel.  My trade idea was to look for sell signals inside sell area between 1.4395 and 1.4445 with target 1 at 1.4174-1.4214 and Target 2 at 1.4033-1.4085.

The pair rallied to my sell area yesterday and produced a sell signal. If you don’t know these signals and how to manage the risks in these trades please join me to my free webinars. Even though GBPUSD was already falling today’s US Job report finished the business by pushing the pair down to my target 1 area.

This trade produced over 160 pips from the entry signal to the target 1 for those that decided to close their positions in this target area. The second target area is additional 100+ pips lower from the current levels. The USD could be strong after this solid jobs report while the GBP is likely to remain weak due to Brexit concerns. Therefore the probabilities of GBPUSD hitting the target 2 are still there but as the pair is now near to the lower end of the range we might see some volatility before the target can be hit.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Non-Farm Payrolls increased 215k

Forex Analysis

 US Non-Farm Payrolls increased 215k

US Non-Farm Payrolls increased 215k

EURUSD, 60 min

US nonfarm payrolls increased 215k in March after a revised 245k in February gain (was 242k) and a 168k rise in January (revised from 172k), for a net -1k revision. The Q1 average gain was 209k versus the 223k average for the 2015. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.0%versus 4.9% as household employment increased 246k versus the 530k February jump, with the labor market up another 396k following the prior 555k surge.

The labor force participation rate rose to 63.0% versus 62.9%. Earnings bounced 0.3% versus the 0.1% dip previously. The work week was unchanged at 34.4. Private payrolls rose 195k, though jobs in the goods producing sector fell 4k, with manufacturing down 29k, while construction up 37k. The service sector added 199k jobs, helped by a 51k rise in trade/transport. Government added 20k. This is a pretty solid jobs report.

EURUSD is trading near the upper end of the trading range and close to October 2015 highs. At the time of writing the pair has not yet reacted strongly. The nearest support level is at 1.1377 while the nearest resistance is at 1.1495. The 4h chart is about to create a bearish shooting star candle if it closes below 1.1413. The indication is EURUSD bearish and suggests that the pair is getting ready to correct to lower levels.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURJPY hits targets both short and long side

Forex Analysis

 EURJPY hits targets both short and long side

EURJPY hits targets both short and long side

EURJPY, 240 min

March 14th I published an analysis on EURJPY suggesting that the pair would provide opportunities on both short and long sides. Price was about to roll over from the daily Bollinger bands and move to my buy area. As the pair was trading at 126.26 at the time of writing I suggested we could take a short between 126.50 and 126.80. Price rallied to 126.70 and faced heavy selling. This resulted in my 125.45 target being hit on March 15th. The long trade idea was to look for buy signals at or inside the area with Target 1 is at 126.60 – 127.60 and Target 2 at 128.00 – 128.60.

Now the long side target 1 has been hit also and EURJPY is attempting to crawl towards the target 2. The daily chart shows some loss of momentum at the upper daily Bollinger Bands and Stochastics possibly rolling over from the overbought zone. However, the weekly picture looks still promising which means that it could push higher after a pullback. The nearest important support level is at 126.60 a previous resistance that coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

Forex Analysis

 GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

GBPJPY, 4 Hour

Yesterday I wrote about the GBPJPY pair on the 4 hour chart and concluded that a SHORT trade with “An initial target around 161.20 (20Day Moving Average), 161.00 and further out to 160.60  from current 161.85 levels. A recent high of 162.50 areas provides a stop area”

Although the pair achieved my two target areas I was stopped out (the daily high being only a couple of pips above my stop area.)

So I had a losing trade, that went on to hit both my targets. As a trader this happens and we simply have to add to our Trading Journal and learn from it. Always analyse your trades – both winners and losers.

Trading really is a mind game and accepting a loss is probabaly the most important aspect of that mind game. I learnt many years ago that winning and losing trades are always simply “interesting”. Losing trades happen and will continue to happen, however, with the correct risk and money management you always stay in the game and have funds to take the next opportunity that comes along.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Eurozone CPI – In line with expectations

Forex Analysis

 Eurozone CPI – In line with expectations

Eurozone CPI – In line with expectations

EURUSD, Daily  

Eurozone March HICP inflation: -0.1% y/y. This was in line with median expectations and up from -0.2% y/y in the previous month. We had been looking for a slightly higher number after yesterday’s 0.3% point jump in the German HICP rate but national data from France and Spain earlier already suggested that steady rates elsewhere would prevent a more pronounced uptick in the overall number. Indeed Italian HICP, published at the same time as the EMU number, actually showed the headline rate falling even further into negative territory. The gap between Eurozone countries is widening again, which is not making the ECB’s task any easier. With the headline rate stuck in negative territory, markets will likely continue to speculate about Draghi’s next steps, although the fact that core inflation actually rose to 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y in February highlights that energy prices, where were down 8.7% y/y in March, remain the main driving factor behind the negative rate.

The dollar extended Yellen-inspired declines against the euro, which was the chief benefactor of the dynamic, while ebbing back toward lows versus other currencies. This put EUR-USD at a 1.1383 peak after breaching the February high, trading at levels last seen in October.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD Weak after daily shooting star

Forex Analysis

 GBPUSD Weak after daily shooting star

GBPUSD Weak after daily shooting star

GBPUSD, 240 min

GBPUSD created a daily shooting star candle yesterday and fell outside the rising channel in today’s trading.  The pair is about to create a four hour shooting star candle which suggests that the sellers are rejecting the rally attempts to the area above 1.4400. In the daily chart the Stochastics is getting overbought while the weekly resistance level at 1.4500 is relatively close.

I am therefore looking for sell signals inside the above sell area between 1.4395 and 1.4445. Target 1 for successful short entries is at 1.4174-1.4214 and Target 2 at 1.4033-1.4085. Please, remember to apply risk appropriate management measures and come to our webinars to learn more should feel the need for further education.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD-German Inflation Ticks Up

Forex Analysis

 EURUSD-German Inflation Ticks Up

German Inflation Ticks Up

 

EURUSD, daily

The German HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices – (used for European purposes and different to German CPI figures) inflation rose to 0.1% y/y in March. This was more than expected and lifted the headline rate back into positive territory, after the -0.1% y/y rate in February. Belgian numbers, released earlier also moved higher and the data is likely to set the stage for a rebound in the overall Eurozone headline rate this month, with base effects playing a role. For now this should at least limit speculation about further action from Draghi and the use of helicopter money, especially after Coeure suggested that the latter is an interesting academic option and favourite of the press, but not actively considered as a policy tool at the moment.

The EURUSD remains north of the psychological 1.1300 at 1.1315 today with the month high 1.1346 providing resistance further out. Support is provided by the the 10 and 20 Day Moving Averages at 1.1236 and 1.1154 respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management and remember that your capital is the single most important financial aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Crude weak after a weekly shooting star?

Forex Analysis

 Crude weak after a weekly shooting star?

Crude weak after a weekly shooting star?

Crude Oil, Daily

Dallas Fed moderate-hawk Kaplan sees oil supply balanced with demand by mid-2017 and thinks there could be under supply by 2018-2019, though he is of course talking the book of the oil weathy region of Texas. Wall street Journal reports today that banks are worried about the growing pile of debt taken on by European oil companies making little or no profits, and that means money to finance new drilling and other projects is drying up. Several oil companies said they expect their ability to tap credit lines to be diminished after loan reviews.

While the Fed officials and banks view the markets from a longer term perspective we focus on near term opportunities that are created by market fluctuations. Three days ago the price of WTI crude fell below the rising regression channel it had been in since the mid-February this year. This happened after oil hit the upper Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart and created a bearish pin bar (a shooting star). This is a sign that institutions have been taking money off the table and suggests that we might see a correction in the price of crude. Crude oil is now oversold as per Stochastics (7, 3, 3) and near 23.6% Fibonacci level but could but could be a sell should it first rally higher from here.

I am therefore looking for sell signals between $40.17 and $40.80 with Target 1 at $34.47 – $38.85 area and Target 2 at $34.00 – $35.90. Please, remember to apply the entry and risk management principles I’m teaching in the webinars. Join me to free webinars if you want to learn more.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD hits Target and GBPJPY Looks Overbought

Forex Analysis

 AUDUSD hits Target and GBPJPY Looks Overbought

AUDUSD hits Target and GBPJPY Looks Overbought

AUDUSD hits target & GBPJPY looking over bought

Following Mrs Yellen’s dovish comments last night and the subsequent commodity rally and pressure on the USD, our March 23 AUDUSD trade achieved its Daily target, (+102 pips).

However, following the sharp run up over night and this morning and it looks like some of the commodity currencies are getting a little toppy, especially the AUD and CAD.

Another currency pair that has a good run on the 240 min. chart is the GBPJPY, this maybe looking for a retrace before more possible upside. An initial target around 161.20 (20Day Moving Average), 161.00 and further out to 160.60  from current 161.85 levels. A recent high of 162.50 areas provides a stop area and a risk reward of around 1.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.