Dow Jones approaching weekly resistance

Dow Jones approaching weekly resistance

Dow Jones (USA30), Weekly

Following Chair Yellen’s more Dovish comments and the relatively bullish jobs report the USD continues to weaken and the US stock markets continued to rally. From the February lows the S&P500 (SPX500) has rallied 11% (from 1818 to 2020) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA30) has performed even better adding 2230 points from 15,590 to 17,820 a gain of over 14%. The Surging Yen this week has caused some selling off  in the equity markets but where do we go from here and is there any more upside potential in this rally?

Fundamentally, there is a lot of negativity around, US corporate profits are down, the last earnings season was poor and anticipation is for worse to come in the reporting season starting this week.  Also, many US stocks are trading on very high multiples. Sentiment too is uncertain, as there are continuing questions over the Chinese economy and the state of their Banks in particular, while the Oil market remains highly over supplied with weak global demand. This week we have had the risk-off rally as the Japanese yen (JPY) appreciated as much as 3.5% and the USDJPY fell to under 108, all this and a very uncertain US election ahead.

With a very mixed news and sentiment picture what do the charts tell us? Technically, for now the rally is still intact and has some support, however, there are signs that all the negative sentiment and what some see as a divided FED are beginning to take hold of the equity markets.

Our preference is for SHORT positions with the Target 1 at 15,950 from our entry levels around the 17,900 – 18,330 level and Target 2 at 15,300. The earnings season which starts today is anticipated to be poor and the market has already priced this in so any good news could likely rally the Dow from here. However, the downside is looking to prevail.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD hit both targets!

GBPUSD hit both targets!

GBPUSD, 240 min

I suggested in my GBPUSD analysis at the end of March that we should look for shorts as the pair created a daily shooting star candle and fell outside the rising channel.  My trade idea was to look for sell signals inside sell area between 1.4395 and 1.4445 with target 1 at 1.4174-1.4214 and Target 2 at 1.4033-1.4085. The pair rallied to my sell area yesterday and produced a sell signal on the same day.

In my update I mentioned that the USD could be strong after the solid jobs report while the GBP is likely to remain weak due to Brexit concerns. I also said that the probabilities of GBPUSD hitting the target 2 are still there but as the pair is now near to the lower end of the range we might see some volatility before the target can be hit. The trade idea worked exactly the way I suggested. It’s pretty neat, when it happens as there obviously are also those trades that don’t go to the plan. Now both targets have been hit and depending on the strategy applied this trade idea produced between 150 to 350 pips.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY – A Tail of 2 Targets

GBPJPY – A Tail of 2 Targets

GBPJPY, Daily
On Wednesday I posted my thoughts on the divergence between the sentiment towards the GBP and JPY. This along with the technicals from the charts suggested more downside for the pair. This duly ensued as the pair traded lower and then retraced up to my entry over 155.00. The overnight and early morning move yesterday was very substantial and my initial (T1) 80 pip target 154.20 was achieved over night. Target 2, a further 80 pips at 153.40 followed quickly in the European morning session.

This move was much more aggressive than I imagined, but this can happen as momentum builds and both my targets were achieved within 24 hours. A net gain of 160 pips, interesting.

Trends, be they in sentiment, chart patterns or fundamentals have a self-sustaining momentum and will run until they exhaust the energy that started them. Markets also over react and the huge surge we have had in the JPY this week will inevitably cool, as we are seeing this morning, before the trend is re-established (probable) or runs out of energy completely (less probable).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Strong Canadian Jobs Data helps CAD

Strong Canadian Jobs Data helps CAD

CADJPY, Daily  

Canada employment surged 40.6k in March (median 12.5k) after the 2.3k dip in February. Full time employment jumped 35.3k in March after the 51.8k drop in February. Part time employment edged 5.3k higher in March on the heels of a 49.5k jump in February. By sector, growth was in the service sector where 74.7k jobs were created, led by a 24.9k rise in health care and social assistance and a 17.7k gain in accommodation and food after those sectors saw large job declines in February. Goods sector employment fell 34.1k in March, knocked lower by a 31.8k plunge in manufacturing, a 5.5k drop in construction and a relatively sedate 2.1k dip in natural resource jobs. The unemployment rate pulled back to 7.1% in March from 7.3% in February. The participation rate was 65.9 in March, matching the 65.9 in February. This is a mostly solid report overall, which is supportive of the expected constructive growth outlook from the BoC next week, although the tumble in manufacturing, and declines in construction and resource jobs will underpin a still cautious tone from the Bank.

The Canadian dollar is the biggest mover and shaker today, showing just over a 1% gain against the USD and just over a 1.5% advance on the JPY. The CAD’s gain has been fuelled by the strong Canadian employment report and strong rise in oil prices today, while the yen has ebbed amid an improvement in risk appetite and on the view that the recent surge in the currency raises the odds for the BoJ extending NIRP at its April 27th-28th meeting while shifting the MoF toward hitting the forex intervention button. The  CAD-JPY cross had lost 6.5% in just over a week, so was perhaps due a rebound.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD – The “Fog of Uncertainty”

GBPUSD – The “Fog of Uncertainty”

GBPUSD, Daily  

Today’s worse than expected production and trade data which shows the industrial and manufacturing sector to be in more of a funk than thought. Cable has given back most of the gains seen during an earlier run higher to 1.4141, retreating back under 1.4090.

UK industrial output unexpectedly fell by 0.3% m/m and 0.5% y/y, down from the 0.2% and 0.1% respective growth rates of January. The median forecasts had been for a 0.1% m/m rise and a 0.0% y/y outcome. Manufacturing data were even worse, contracting 1.1% m/m, while the February trade report showed the visible goods deficit to be GBP 12.0 bln after an upwardly revised January deficit of GBP 12.2 bln. It’s been no secret that the production sector has been the weak spot of the UK’s economy, and more timely survey evidence suggests this is a worsening trend. The risk of Brexit is a factor at play. A survey published by Deloitte this week found that a “fog of uncertainty has descended on the corporate sector” as a consequence of uncertainty about EU membership.

The negative data adds to the already negative sentiment and although the Brexit premium is priced in the one thing that markets HATE more than anything else is uncertainty.

Sub 1.4000 looks probable, however there is support around Thursday’s close of 1.4050. 1.3900 and 1.3860 remain key downside targets in the longer term. Short term we have 1.4050 proving support on the 4 hour and Daily chart. The previous support at 1.1410 appears to have broken down earlier this week.

Preference remains for more SHORT positions below 1.4105-1.4112 level with T1 back to 1.4050 and T2 1.3962. On the upside the pair will need to break 1.4200 and 1.4260 for long positions to be considered.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Final Eurozone PMI – Below Expectations

Final Eurozone PMI – Below Expectations

 

EURJPY, 4 Hour,  

Eurozone final services PMI revised down to 53.1 from 54.0 reported initially and versus 53.3 in February. The composite was revised up to 53.1 from 53.0 reported initially on the back of the stronger manufacturing number, but this still leaves the index down from 53.7 in the previous month. So the improvement in confidence that the PMI suggested for the end of the first quarter looks shakier than thought and the country breakdown highlights that even the big four are drifting apart again, with the weakness mainly felt at the core. France in particular continues to underperform amid the lack of structural reforms.

EURJPY continued its decline from Fridays high to the psychological 125.50 level and the 4 Hour 200 Day MA. The JPY has been particularly strong over night as risk off takes hold. There was also a meeting convened between the BOJ, the Japanese finance ministry and the financial regulator, following the meeting Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga said FX levels were being watched with “a sense of urgency”.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPUSD hit Target 1 after the NFP report

 GBPUSD hit Target 1 after the NFP report

GBPUSD hit Target 1 after the NFP report

GBPUSD, 240 min

I suggested in my GBPUSD analysis yesterday that we should look for shorts as the pair created a daily shooting star candle and fell outside the rising channel.  My trade idea was to look for sell signals inside sell area between 1.4395 and 1.4445 with target 1 at 1.4174-1.4214 and Target 2 at 1.4033-1.4085.

The pair rallied to my sell area yesterday and produced a sell signal. If you don’t know these signals and how to manage the risks in these trades please join me to my free webinars. Even though GBPUSD was already falling today’s US Job report finished the business by pushing the pair down to my target 1 area.

This trade produced over 160 pips from the entry signal to the target 1 for those that decided to close their positions in this target area. The second target area is additional 100+ pips lower from the current levels. The USD could be strong after this solid jobs report while the GBP is likely to remain weak due to Brexit concerns. Therefore the probabilities of GBPUSD hitting the target 2 are still there but as the pair is now near to the lower end of the range we might see some volatility before the target can be hit.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Non-Farm Payrolls increased 215k

 US Non-Farm Payrolls increased 215k

US Non-Farm Payrolls increased 215k

EURUSD, 60 min

US nonfarm payrolls increased 215k in March after a revised 245k in February gain (was 242k) and a 168k rise in January (revised from 172k), for a net -1k revision. The Q1 average gain was 209k versus the 223k average for the 2015. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.0%versus 4.9% as household employment increased 246k versus the 530k February jump, with the labor market up another 396k following the prior 555k surge.

The labor force participation rate rose to 63.0% versus 62.9%. Earnings bounced 0.3% versus the 0.1% dip previously. The work week was unchanged at 34.4. Private payrolls rose 195k, though jobs in the goods producing sector fell 4k, with manufacturing down 29k, while construction up 37k. The service sector added 199k jobs, helped by a 51k rise in trade/transport. Government added 20k. This is a pretty solid jobs report.

EURUSD is trading near the upper end of the trading range and close to October 2015 highs. At the time of writing the pair has not yet reacted strongly. The nearest support level is at 1.1377 while the nearest resistance is at 1.1495. The 4h chart is about to create a bearish shooting star candle if it closes below 1.1413. The indication is EURUSD bearish and suggests that the pair is getting ready to correct to lower levels.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURJPY hits targets both short and long side

 EURJPY hits targets both short and long side

EURJPY hits targets both short and long side

EURJPY, 240 min

March 14th I published an analysis on EURJPY suggesting that the pair would provide opportunities on both short and long sides. Price was about to roll over from the daily Bollinger bands and move to my buy area. As the pair was trading at 126.26 at the time of writing I suggested we could take a short between 126.50 and 126.80. Price rallied to 126.70 and faced heavy selling. This resulted in my 125.45 target being hit on March 15th. The long trade idea was to look for buy signals at or inside the area with Target 1 is at 126.60 – 127.60 and Target 2 at 128.00 – 128.60.

Now the long side target 1 has been hit also and EURJPY is attempting to crawl towards the target 2. The daily chart shows some loss of momentum at the upper daily Bollinger Bands and Stochastics possibly rolling over from the overbought zone. However, the weekly picture looks still promising which means that it could push higher after a pullback. The nearest important support level is at 126.60 a previous resistance that coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

 GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

GBPJPY – “That’s Interesting”

GBPJPY, 4 Hour

Yesterday I wrote about the GBPJPY pair on the 4 hour chart and concluded that a SHORT trade with “An initial target around 161.20 (20Day Moving Average), 161.00 and further out to 160.60  from current 161.85 levels. A recent high of 162.50 areas provides a stop area”

Although the pair achieved my two target areas I was stopped out (the daily high being only a couple of pips above my stop area.)

So I had a losing trade, that went on to hit both my targets. As a trader this happens and we simply have to add to our Trading Journal and learn from it. Always analyse your trades – both winners and losers.

Trading really is a mind game and accepting a loss is probabaly the most important aspect of that mind game. I learnt many years ago that winning and losing trades are always simply “interesting”. Losing trades happen and will continue to happen, however, with the correct risk and money management you always stay in the game and have funds to take the next opportunity that comes along.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.