EURUSD, Daily       

Bundesbank cuts growth and inflation forecast, sees balanced risks. After the ECB published its updated set of staff projections yesterday, the Bundesbank released its projections for Germany, which were taking into account in the ECB calculations. The working day adjusted forecast for GDP was cut to 1.6% this year from 1.7% previously and the projection for 2017 was cut to 1.6% from 1.9%. 2018 growth is seen at 1.7%. At the same time, the inflation projections were cut to 0.2% this year and 1.5% next year from 1.1% and 2.0% previously. Sharp downward revisions with the Bundesbank blaming oil price variations and seeing balanced risks, but with inflation seen at just 1.7% in 2018, this means headline rates will remain below the 2% upper limit for price stability for a lengthy period.

Eurozone services PMI revised up to 53.3 from 53.1 and the composite revised up to 53.1 from 52.9. This means the services reading improved slightly over the month, and the composite now shows an acceleration on the overall pace of activity, compared to a slight deceleration suggested by the initial numbers. National data was mixed, and especially the fact that the Italian services PMI fell back into contraction territory at just 49.8 and the overall composite Italian PMI is barely holding above the boom-bust line at 50.8 is worrying. Bund futures recovered earlier losses on the weak Italian numbers and as the French readings were revised down, but are off highs as German and Eurozone numbers were revised higher. Uncertainty remains high but the mixed data will add to the disappointment over the ECB’s failure to announce new measures.

All quite on the forex front as markets hunker down ahead of the U.S. employment report showstopper, to which the possibility, or not, of a Fed rate hike on June 15 hinges. The G3 currencies are on the day so far showing less than a net 0.15% net change against one another. EURUSD has been locked in the mid 1.11s and USDJPY has taken root around 109.00, having recovered from the 18-day low at 108.49 that was seen during the Tokyo session.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, H1     

US Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.8%. This rise was from 0.5% but undershot our estimates thanks to the lack of an expected boost in consumption and a big downward bump in intellectual property investment, alongside a slightly smaller than expected $8.7 bln inventory boost. We saw the expected moderate hike in construction and a slight trimming in equipment spending, alongside a surprising $5.6 bln net export boost, leaving a small hike in final sales growth to 1.0% from 0.9%. We’ll keep our Q2 GDP growth estimate at 2.0% until we can review Monday’s income report. The Q1 GDP data still depict an economy suffering from weak global growth, a surging dollar, and falling oil prices that are disrupting the export and petro sectors and contributing to the inventory overbuild. We have business fixed investment declines as companies right-size costs to diminished nominal revenue in the face of price weakness and consumption restraint from cautious households. We expect diminishing global, petro, and inventory headwinds in Q2 as GDP growth bounces. EURUSD rallied a little to1.1172 on the release only to fall back to 1.1152, all eyes now on Mrs Yellen and her conversation with Professor Mankiw.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, H1     

US new home sales surged 16.6% to a 619k annual rate in April, wow, the highest since January 2008, after a 1.3% drop in March to 531k (revised from 511k). February’s 519k was bumped to 538k for a net 44k upward revision. The months’ supply dropped to 4.7 from 5.5 (revised from 5.8). Regionally, sales were up in 3 of the 4 regions covered, paced by strength in the South and West, with the Midwest posting the only decline on the month. The median sales price bounced 7.8% to $321,100 from a revised $297,900 (was $288,000). That’s up 9.7% y/y. The strength in this report is a big surprise and should leave Treasury yields pressured higher. The dollar rallied marginally to session highs following the strong new home sales data. EURUSD edged under 1.1150 from 1.1165, as USD-JPY topped 109.90 from near 109.80.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, H1     

The Eurozone continues to confuse with mixed data this morning; The flash Markit Eurozone PMI hit a 16-month low of 52.9 in the May composite reading of the manufacturing and services surveys. This was slightly down on the 53.0 reading for April, and contrasts the median forecast for an improvement to 53.3. Markit says that the indicator points to Q2 GDP growth of 0.3%, would be an slowdown from Q1’s 0.5%. From among the components of the survey, the rate of new work in fell to the lowest level in 17 months, while the confidence reading for the services sector fell to a 10-month low.

Meanwhile Germany the area’s largest and most economy Flash PMI data for May beat expectations, with the composite of the manufacturing and services surveys rising to a 54.7 in the headline reading, up from 53.6 in April and exceeding the Bloomberg median for a more modest rise to 53.9. Markit advises caution, however, as “there was evidence that some companies raised activity levels in order to process backlogged work, rather than as a result of rising new business,” also noting a slowing pace of improvement in new orders.

Technically, it looks like 1.1200 beckons with a lot of volatility around this significant round number. The Daily has 100 DMA at 1.1160 and 200 DMA below 1.1120. The 1 Hour chart appears a little range bound in a tight 35 pip range between 1.1230 – 1.1195. The generally weak EUR data has not helped the buyers this morning.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US CPI popped up by 0.4% in April with the core rate up 0.2%, in line with expectations. There were no revisions to prior data where March posted gains of 0.1% for both the headline and the ex-food and energy component. The annual headline pace rose to 1.1% from 0.9% y/y in March, with the core slowing slightly to 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y; it’s a 6th straight month with a 2 handle. Energy prices were up 3.4% after the 0.9% March gain broke a string of 3 straight monthly declines. Transportation jumped 1.6%. Housing costs were up 0.2%. Food/beverage costs edged up 0.2%. Medical care was 0.3% higher. Commodities rose 0.6%. Apparel slid 0.3%.

EURUSD reacted slightly lower as improved inflation data supports the view that the Fed will hike the rates this year. Our view is that there will two rate hikes in the latter half of the year. I’m expecting the first hike will be announced in the June meeting even though the date is near the British EU referendum. The nearest EURUSD support and 4h resistance levels are at 1.1282 and 1.1340.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, H1    

Eurozone Q1 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q reported initially. Still a solid acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q4 last year, but it seems stronger than expected German growth failed to compensate for the modest acceleration in Italy, the weaker than expected number in Portugal and the ongoing contraction in Greece. In any case, while the earlier timing of Easter may have helped Q1 growth along, indicators already point to a slowdown ahead and the balance of risks going ahead remains firmly tilted to the downside. For now the ECB is on hold and focused on implementing the measures already announced, but at the same time officials are keeping the door to further easing wide open.

Although a revision downwards it was a relatively good figure, with only Greece and Latvia not growing, EURUSD ticked up to the 1.1350 area, but down from yesterdays 1.1400 this morning.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, 240    

U.S. initial jobless claims surged 17k to 274k in the week ended April 30, the highest level in five weeks. The 17k U.S. initial claims pop to 274k in the final week of April extended the 9k rise to 257k from a 42-year low of 248k in the April BLS survey week, as claims nearly return to the 276k recent peak in the week of Good Friday. Despite the sharp rise, the extremely tight mid-month readings signal upside risk for our 210k April payroll estimate.  The claims roller-coaster ride since late-March, with high readings then and now with a deep trough in between, is likely due at least partly to the difficulties of seasonal adjustment with this year’s early Easter. Note that non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) claims fell 2k alongside the 17k seasonally adjusted (SA) rise. Claims averaged a lean 259k in April despite the late-month climb, versus higher recent averages of a still-lean 265k in March, 261k in February, 282k in January and 277k in December. The 248k April BLS survey week reading undershot recent already-tight BLS readings of 259k in March, 260k in February, 291k in January and 275k in both November and December.

EURUSD remains rather unmoved by the data,  with support around the 1.1400 level and resistance at 1.1470-1.1480. All eyes now on tomorrows Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, 60 min

EURUSD created a bearish shooting star candle in yesterday’s trading. The day was rather volatile with the pair running up by X% and then closing below the opening price and near the session lows. Today we’ve seen some sideways action which is typical after market moves significantly on the day before. EURUSD has also found support from the proximity of April 4^th high at 1.1465. Today’s low at the time of writing has been 1.1469. Market participants are also waiting for the US employment numbers for April from ADP which are due to be released at 12:15 GMT. No major change is expected to March numbers.

In the hourly chart the EURUSD pair can be seen in a descending channel but as mentioned, the 1.1465 support is not that far and has attracted buyers while it has also kept the bears in check. I expect that traders will tread carefully until the ADP number is out even though no major change is expected. I’m seeing resistance at 1.1500 and 1.1511 with the nearest support at 1.1465. The 4h chart has now a doji candle which suggests the downside momentum has faded and the pair could try to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. However, the 1.1532 to 1.1570 should be a challenge for the bulls and this Sell Area has potential to turn the pair down again. We will follow the price action to see if market supplies us with sell signals. Should this happen my target one is at 1.1480 and target two at 1.1410.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, Daily

US Markit manufacturing PMI (final) held steady at 50.8 in April compared to the flash reading (lowest since September 2009), but down from the 51.5 final March print. The final PMI output index also held steady at 50.3 in April vs the flash reading, but down from final March 51.2. The final April employment index settled unchanged vs the flash of 50.2, though down from the 52.2 final March print. Overall, not very compelling, though focus will shift to ISM and construction data shortly.

At the same time US manufacturing ISM fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. The prices index surged to 59.0 in April from 51.5 in March. New orders eroded to 55.8 in April from 58.3 in March. While the pull-back in the total index was slightly more pronounced than anticipated (median was 51.3), the result was largely as-expected.

US construction spending rose 0.3% in March versus consensus forecasts of a 0.5% gain. February data however, was revised sharply higher to up 1.0% to from -0.5%. The small March miss can be attributed to slower housing starts reported for March.

EURUSD reacted higher at first but has since retraced some of its gains. The nearest 4h support and resistance levels are at 1.1481 and 1.1534 with the next support at 1.1465 (coincides with 0.236 retracement) and 1.1398. EURUSD reaction after the data could lead to market testing the nearest supports before finding direction again. This price action is taking place outside the upper daily Bollinger bands which could mean going gets tougher for the bulls. At the same time however, there is support in the weekly charts around 1.1460 (weekly highs) and could mean that Euro bears are careful with their short positioning and leave more room for the bulls to bid prices higher.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD, Daily

US March personal income rose 0.4% while spending increased 0.1%. The 0.1% increase in February income was revised to up 0.2%, while the 0.1% spending rise in January was upped to 0.2%. Income has been up for 12 straight month, and spending has increased 14 consecutive months. The headline chain price index rose 0.1% versus the 0.1% decline in February, and is up 0.8% y/y. The core rate increased 0.1% versus 0.2% previously. Disposable income rose 0.4% versus up 0.1% in February, while the savings rate increased to 5.4% vs 5.1% previously.

EURUSD has been trading higher and is nearing the April highs at 1.1465. This area coincides with the upper Bollinger bands while the up move has lifted the Stochastics almost to overbought territory. Since November 2015 this area has been too much for the Euro bulls and moves into this area have been unsustainable. It remains to be seen what the market reactions will be on this time. Only then we can tell if it’s likely that the markets will take to EURUSD down again. The nearest daily resistance levels are at 1.1465 and 1.1495 while the nearest daily support levels are at 1.1218 and 1.1143.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.