Free Forex Signals for 10.15.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily price is currently testing the upper end of my predicted price path range (1.1090 – 1.1460). Ideally, a solid close above the 260 period SMA (1 year moving average) could indicate a possible trend reversal on the EURUSD. The next major daily resistance is now at 1.1560, however there still remains the possibility of a failed upward break that could shift the control back to the short sellers for a retest of the 1.1340′s , 1.1280′s and the 1.1090′s in extension. From a technical standpoint the EURUSD continues to look overextended, the technical trader should be reminded that just because the stochastic oscillator is in overextended territory that does not indicate an immediate fall in price, on the contrary, it is not uncommon that in a strong uptrend that an oscillator could remain overextended while price continues to advanced. My conclusion for short term traders is to add long positions on dips for targets between the 1.1460’s and 1.1560’s.

In the event that the ECB can not meet its inflation objective, the European Central Bank may make a move to extend QE, according to the Bank of Spain deputy governor Restoy.

Crude overnight hit near $45.90, down from yesterday’s $46.91 peak , crude moved lower after the close on Wednesday, as the API reported a huge 9.3 mln bbl weekly stock build, the largest in six-months. Some of the inventory rise was attributed to falling refinery operating rates, as API reported a 5 mln bbl fall in gasoline supplies for the latest week.

Stock markets have been moving higher as weak economic data continues to hit the news wires, with U.S. negative data on ex-auto retail sales and PPI, a deterioration of Japanese manufactures, and the unexpected dip in Australian employment all giving some relief for stock investors since it adds to the possibility of a delay in a U.S. interest rate raise, while increasing the risk that the ECB will proceed with additional QE in order to boast the Eurozone.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR fell following the mix of data, which revealed a 40-plus year low in jobless claims, a slightly hotter core CPI reading, and an improvement, though less than expected in the Empire State index headline.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Employment Change: Australian employment had an unexpected dip coming in at -5.1k while it was expected to come in at 7.2k.

• USD Consumer price Index: CPI sank 0.2% in Sep, in line with median -0.2%; core +0.2%, above med 0.1%. There were no revisions to August which posted a 0.1% headline decline, with the core rate edging up 0.1%. On an annual basis, the headline index was unchanged versus 0.2% y/y, while the ex-food and energy component rose to a 1.9% y/y from 1.8% y/y. Energy prices skidded another 4.7% following a 2.0% decline in August. Transportation costs dropped 2.3% from -1.3%. Food/beverage prices edged up 0.4% from 0.2%. Services costs rose 0.2% from 0.1%. Housing were up 0.3% from 0.2%. Apparel slipped 0.3%, reversing the 0.3% gain in August. Commodities were down 0.8% from -0.4%. Tobacco prices declined 0.1% following a 0.5% gain in August.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims fell 7k to 255k in the week ended October 10, matching the lowest since 1973.from a revised 262k in the prior week (was 263k). That brought the 4-week moving average to 265.0k from 267.25k (revised from 267.50k). Continuing claims fell 50k to 2,158k in the October 3 week, versus a revised 2,208k (was 2,204k), the lowest since December, 1973.

• USD Empire State Index: NY Empire State index rebounded to -11.36 in Oct, below median -8.0 vs -14.7.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.14.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily price has been in a momentum driven mode since clearing to the upside the previous resistance now turned support (1.1280) level. This upward momentum on price has been done on the back of mostly disappointing Eurozone data; however, the market has interpreted last week’s release of the U.S. Feds FOMC meeting minutes as a reason to sell off the USD, therefore, proving short term support for the EUR. Moving forward, stochastic oscillator analysis is starting to look overextended, indicating that momentum may start to slow. Price is also nearing the 260 period (1 year) SMA leaving me with the technical view that the EURUSD remains at risk for a fall towards the 1.1280′s, unless we see a clean break above the 1.1460′s that could open up the way for the 1.1530′s.

On Tuesday, we saw that the German ZEW investor expectations drop was much more pronounced than anticipated, with optimists only marginally outnumbering pessimists now. The index has been falling steadily since March and the decline in investor sentiment clearly reflects growing concerns about the health of the global economy and the impact of slowing growth in emerging market economies on advanced countries. The expectations index for the U.S. dropped sharply in October, and the reading for the Eurozone also declined. The German ZEW decline was not a total surprise in the wake of the VW emission scandal, the refugee crisis and, of course, uncertainty about the global growth outlook.

Global stock markets were weaker on Tuesday, as disappointing trade news from China continues to influence investor sentiment, and signs of disinflation from Europe. Also, profit taking on U.S. markets added to the selling pressure after the Dow Jones posted a 7-week high last week.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

AUD has been correcting lower in the wake of a 2 week advance, AUDUSD buyers have emerge around the 0.72 area and a potential 10,50 SMA bull cross may be forming on the daily. The NZD has been trading higher as the New Zealand economy continues to grow, supported by strong home sales. The USD is still softer as markets continue to add pressure for USD buyers with the impact of a delayed rate hike fresh on traders mind, as well as disappointing retail sales data.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Claimant Count Change: UK unemployment unexpectedly dipped to a new cycle low of 5.4% in the official ILO figure for August. This is below the BoE’s 5.5% NAIRU marker, which is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, below which the central bank expects inflation pressures to build. Other parts of the labour report showed the claimant count rising by 4.6k in September, which is worse than expected as the median forecast was for a 2.5k decline. The claimant count rate remained at cycle lows of 2.3%. Wage data was perky, though within expectations. The with-bonus figure rose 3.0% y/y in the three months to August, up from 2.9% previously. This is a strong rate of real improvement in households spending power, given that CPI is at -0.1% y/y, and the BoE will be monitoring this closely with unemployment now south of 5.5%.

• EUR Eurozone Industrial Production: Eurozone industrial production dropped 0.5% m/m in August, in line with median expectations and indications from national data last week. The annual rate dropped to 0.9% y/y from 1.7% y/y in the previous month. Confidence indicators continue to suggest ongoing expansion, but also a slowdown in growth momentum, and even if the broadening of developments is encouraging, the knock to the German economy from the emission scandal and the slowdown in emerging economies is also raising concerns about the outlook and adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB.

• USD Retail Sales: U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in September, and fell 0.3% ex-autos. The disappointing data will add to expectations of no Fed rate hike in 2015. The 0.2% headline August gain was bumped down to unchanged, though July’s 0.7% was bumped up to 0.8%. The 0.1% ex-auto gain from August was revised lower to -0.1%. Sales excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials edged up 0.1% after a 0.2% increase in August (revised down from 0.5%). Motor vehicles and parts climbed 1.7% last month. Gas station sales fell 3.2%. Small declines were registered in electronics, building materials, food, general merchandise and non-store retailers. Clothing rose 0.9%, as did sporting goods, with furniture prices up 0.6%. Health care costs were unchanged.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.13.2015

EURUSD, Daily

With markets trading in quiet mode yesterday because of the bank Holiday’s in the U.S., Canada and Japan traders should expect to see price action pick up as traders get back to work after the extended weekend.

EURUSD daily still remains contained within the 1.1460 (Top) 1.1090 (Bottom) range, with current price now trading comfortability above the key support (1.1280) with the pair not showing any signs of leaving a new lower top from the 1.17 August high. I see upside potential in the immediate short term to be limited to around the 1.1440 – 1.1460 levels, before selling pressure emerges, however, since bullish price momentum still remains present there remains the risk for sellers of a price extension towards the 1.15 – 1.1530′s.

Asian stock markets are mostly lower in overnight trade as weaker than expected trade data out of China put pressure on commodities and overall market sentiment. The drop in Chinese imports added to the fall in oil prices yesterday. U.K. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected.

The USD traded weaker in quiet Monday trading with fresh losses against the EUR, AUD and NZD, while the JPY is still flat. The general weakness in the USD is a continuation of selling seen in the wake of last week’s release of the FOMC minutes, which have seen the odds for a Fed rate hike expectations shifted towards year end or even further out.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The USD over the last 5 day trading sessions has been to the downside sparked by the latest release of the FOMC meeting minutes which have seen the odds for a Fed rate lift-off by year-end lengthen. The GBP is lower across the board in the wake of lower trade balance that fell in August to GBP-3.27 billion from GBP-4.4 billion in July while the forecast was for a GBP 2.5 billion deficit. The AUD has been outperforming as higher commodity prices and hopes of more prolonged stays of ultra-accommodative monetary policy at the Fed and BoE give AUD buyers reason to support price.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German HICP: Was confirmed at -0.2% y/y, national CPI at 0.0% y/y, as expected. The breakdown, which was released for the first time, confirmed that lower energy prices are the main reason behind the negative headline rate. Prices for heating oil were down 27.9% y/y in September and petrol prices dropped 13.8% y/y. Excluding both household energy and petrol the annual rate stood at 1.1% y/y, still below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability but far above the headline rate and the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very small, which means the ECB won’t need to react to the drop in headline inflation numbers, even if they keep easing speculation alive.

• GBP Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell by 0.1%, compared to no change (0.0%) in the year to August 2015. A smaller than usual rise in clothing prices and falling motor fuel prices were the main contributors to the fall in the rate. The rate of inflation has been at or around 0.0% for most of 2015.

• EUR German ZEW Survey: Investor sentiment fell more than expected to 1.9 from 12.1. Market sentiment is swinging between concerns about the global growth outlook and hopes that monetary stimulus will remain in place for longer than previously thought and that this will prevent a substantial deceleration in growth.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.09.2015

 

EURUSD, Daily

There was no surprise in the FOMC minutes from the mid-September meeting with “several members” worried that downside risk to growth and inflation have increased due to uncertainties about the global economy. The fact that the FOMC members are downbeat adds to the odds that the FED will delay to at least year end. The U.S. Dow Jones finished with a solid higher close in the wake of the FOMC minutes, while Asian stock markets have rallied across in overnight trading, and most commodity prices are gaining. Crude Oil is trading above $50 for the first time since late July, and may aid support to commodity linked currencies.

Previous EURUSD price action closed just below the key resistance (1.1280), leaving a shadow on the daily. However, the EUR bulls seem to be gaining control of the market this morning as price has taken out yesterday’s high (1.1327) and now looks set to continue a push higher with short term bullish momentum now in play. EURUSD bulls should remain cautious of the failed upward break of the one year moving average August high near the 1.17’s, which supports that the longer term trend on the EUR remains to the downside.

EURUSD daily traders should understand that the pair still lacks direction over the very short term and price seems to be attempting to trace out a trading range between the 1.1090 – 1.1460 range.

The Bank of England left policy unchanged as expected; however, the meeting minutes sounded more to the side of holding current policy for an extended period as the BoE pointed out downside risks, all suggesting that the BoE is in no hurry to raise rates.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR is trading higher against the majors in the wake of positive French production numbers, which normally is not a EUR mover, but today catches a USD bearish market following yesterday’s publication of the Fed’s minutes to its most recent policy meeting. The USD, JPY and the GBP are all suffering losses as commodity currencies trade stronger fueled by a general risk on investor sentiment after the FOMC minutes indicated an increased in the odds that the FED will delay any upward move in interest rates. The AUD , CAD and NZD are all benefiting from the stronger commodity markets and the fact that US Crude Oil is trading at its highest levels not seen since late July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Italian Industrial Production: dropped -0.5% m/m in August, after 1.1% m/m in July. The work day adjusted y/y rate fell back to 1.0% from 2.8% and output actually stagnated in the three months to August, which will raise renewed concerns about the health of the Italian economy.

• EUR French Industrial Production: better than expected with manufacturing up 2.2% m/m and overall production 1.6% m/m. July data were revised down, but the numbers are nevertheless encouraging. The positive numbers tie in with the improvement in French PMI readings recently and confirm that the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone has finally reached France.

• USD Wholesale Inventories: August wholesale trade data is out later today and should reveal a 0.3% (median unchanged) decline for sales while inventories remain unchanged for the month. This would follow respective July figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories.

• CAD Bank of Canada Business Outlook: due out later today, is expected to improve to 10.0 in Q3 from 8.0 in Q2 and a multi-year low 4.0 in Q1. An expected rebound in Q3 GDP following the declines in Q1 and Q2 is expected to lift sentiment.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.08.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The FX markets have been relatively quiet and global equity markets trading mixed over the last 24 hours. U.S. and European markets were up yesterday, while Asian markets traded mostly lower in overnight trading in the wake of a week long holiday in China. Commodity prices have been correcting after yesterday’s price rally, this has seen the AUD and other commodity dependent currencies getting whipped as commodity prices adjust to the possibility of a further delay in the U.S. Fed rate hike.

The EURUSD is trading higher in European trading having now cleared the 1.1280 resistance level, as the IMF said that the U.S. Fed should wait for more signs to raise rates, with IMF’s Vinals saying that “wage and price pressures don’t justify a Fed rate rise and that waiting a couple of months is less risky than a premature lift-off.” The IMF also said that ECB policies are gaining traction while also warning that deleveraging in China will require great care and that it sees a “heightened” chance of global asset-market disruption.

For the moment, EURUSD daily traders will focus on whether today’s resistance (1.1280) in European session price break will hold and close above (1.1280), or if it will leave a less meaningful shadow for the day and close below (1.1280). EURUSD bulls will prefer to see a clean close on price above 1.1280 in order to keep alive any attempt to carry the pair towards the 1.1460 next key resistance level. I would also like to point out again that current price is still holding well above the daily 10,50 SMA bull cross event that accrued in mid August. This bullish moving average double crossover observation technically adds to support the case for EURUSD long holders, at least in the short term.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR traded sharply higher in European trade as a technical upward break of the 1.1280 recent resistance area has been penetrated. The EUR has been moving upward even through recent German and France economic data have been on the weak side with a dive in German exports and an unsuspected dip in French business sentiment.

The AUD trades lower as expectations of continued weak growth in China and the rest of Asia point to softer growth in Australia. The CHF is higher across the board against the majors as the CHF is still the best risk off place in the market. The USD and the GBP are mostly softer ahead of the U.S. FOMC minutes and the BoE Governors speech later today.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Trade Balance: German trade surplus narrowed as exports fell. Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 19.5 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports dropped 5.2% m/m, after a 2.2% m/m rise in July. The fact that imports also dropped a strong 3.1% m/m, suggests that like in manufacturing data, the timing of the school holidays in the different German states may have distorted the numbers somewhat, but the fact that the drop in exports far outstrips the decline in imports and is in fact the strongest declines since the recession days of 2009 is worrying and ties in with other data showing a slowdown in activity. Exports were still up 6.6% y/y in the first eight months of the year, however, and the accumulated trade surplus widened to EUR 163.9 bln from EUR 136.0 bln in the first eight months of 2013.

• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: It is widely expected that the Bank of England will keep policy on hold; the focus today will be on the minutes.

• CAD Housing Starts: Starts are expected to slow to a 205k unit rate in September (median 204.0k) from the 216.9k pace in August. A pull-back in multiple starts after the 19.5% surge in August is expected to slow total starts in September. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. Expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity.

• USD FOMC Minutes: From Sept 16-17 meeting that a big focus given surprise rate lift-off delay. So far, the markets view that conditions for hike are approaching, but not there yet.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.06.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price failed to close above the key 1.1280 area during the previous day’s sessions; however, the prevailing trend is that the pair continues to remain without clear direction. Buyers appear to be emerging sporadically around current price levels and are offering some short term support. The pair does retain the potential to create a lower top from the August high price (1.1713) just below the 1.1460 area; for this to play out we would like to see at least a daily close above 1.13. On the downside there remains the risk of a price breakdown should we see a clean break below the 1.1090’s.

The global stock market rally continued in Asia, hopes that weak data means global monetary policy will remain accommodative for longer and that the ECB will extend its QE program that will provide support to the stock markets. In Australia, the RBA maintained its 2.00% cash rate as expected, the BoJ started its 2-day policy meeting and the BoE will follow today. ECB president Draghi will speak this evening.

UK house prices show signs of cooling, with the September Halifax index showing a 0.9% m/m decline. The market has been in a mini-boom since the general election in May, underpinned by a record level of employment and rising real wages, along with under-supply of residential properties.

The AUD rose on the RBA’s refrain from cutting interest rates, which saw AUD-USD lift to a fresh two-week peak. The USD, EUR and the JPY held in relatively narrow ranges. German manufacturing orders fell 1.8% m/m in August data. This data supports the view that the ECB might be headed for an expansion in its QE program, and this may pressure the EUR over the longer term.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The AUD is rallying on the RBA’s refrain from cutting interest rates today. There had been a minority view anticipating an easing given the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Aside from the central bank’s inaction, there was a lack of clear policy guidance in its statement, which maintained the line on the currency as “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices,” a clause that’s been used for three consecutive months now.

The USD is slightly weaker after the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell in September, the EUR is trading mostly higher in the wake of higher retail sales , however we are expecting EUR price action later today when the ECB President makes his speech.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Trade Balance: Australian trade data for August showed an unexpected widening in the deficit, to A$ 3.095 bln from A$ 2.4 bln. A combo of a weaker currency and lower commodity prices drove the deterioration in the deficit. The deficit data, and a souring in sentiment on Europe stock bourses, have taken the upside out for the Aussie dollar.

• USD Trade Balance: August trade data is out later today and it’s expected to see an 18.2% expansion in the deficit to a -$49.5 bln (median -$43.0 bln) headline from -$41.9 bln in July and a recent low of -$38.5 bln in February. Exports are expected to decline 2.2% on the month following a 0.4% increase in July and imports are expected to climb 1.6% following a 1.1% decline in July. A new release on advance trade figures has recently started being released and the data for August point toward an expected widening in the trade gap.

• CAD Trade Balance : It is expected that the deficit, due Today, to worsen to -C$1.0 bln in August (median -C$1.1 bln) from the -C$0.6 bln shortfall in July. We could see a 0.6% m/m gain in exports after the 2.3% gain in July. A weaker CAD and improvement stateside in industries that matter are supportive of underlying export growth. However, the plunge in oil prices during August looms large and could knock total export values lower relative to July. Imports are expected to rise 1.5% m/m in August following the 1.7% rise in July.

• EUR ECB President Speech: With market expectations of an extension of the QE program mounting anything but very dovish comments from Draghi this evening will be a disappointment for markets.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.05.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD daily chart bull cross of the 10, 50 SMA moving average is proving to be a reliable indicator, as short term price action is holding above the 6 week lows since the cross was spotted. Short term bullish price momentum is expected to be maintained since price seems to be bouncing off the bottom end of the 1.1090 – 1.1460 expected trading range. Short term long position holders should be on alert for profit taking around the September 18th high (1.1460), while short traders should watch for a break below 1.1090 that could open up the way towards the 1.0920’s.

Growth worries will leave Fed, BoE on hold, while there is now an increase risk of European Central Bank and Bank of Japan stimulus after the September jobs data was a disappointment across the board. Data showed only a 142k payroll rise after 59k in downward revisions, a 0.2% hours-worked drop with a workweek downtick to 34.5, and a 13k payroll drop in the bellwether goods sector led by mining and factories that translated to a 1.0% hours-worked plunge. Hourly earnings were flat. The U.S. labor force dropped to a 5.05% new cycle-low, while the labor force participation rate plunged to a 62.4% 38-year low.

China is on a holiday through Wednesday and Australia is closed today for Labor Day.

The magnitude of slowing in the global economy is the biggest uncertainty facing investors and central banks at the moment. The disappointing U.S. jobs data, on the back of the FOMC’s decision to delay liftoff, decreases investor confidence. The upside is that consumer spending and record U.S. auto sales give a better picture of the U.S. economy. Investors will now focus on the upcoming data out this week for further short term direction.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The USD is weaker across the board and sold off immediately on the disappointing U.S. jobs report. The impact on the Fed rate-hike decision is more uncertainty and markets will increase in volatility with a growing feeling that the Fed has miscalculated.

The GBP is trading lower as the U.K. economy continues to look a little softer and expectations are that the BoE will not tighten monetary policy prior to a move by the Fed. The PMI fell slightly to 51.5 in September from 51.6 in August, which was revised up from 51.5. The reading has been running above 50 for thirty straight months. The pace of growth seen in the second and third quarters of this year have been weaker than seen earlier in the current growth sequence.

The CAD jumped immediately after the US employment numbers were released. The much smaller than expected numbers spooked the markets because the widely anticipated Fed rate hike now looks as though it will have to wait well into next year.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Services PMI: unexpectedly dove to a 29-moth low of 53.3 in the headline reading of the September survey. Total business activity and new business growth both came in at 29-month lows. Outstanding business activity consequently grew at only a fractional rate, and the long-term outlook fell to its weakest reading since August 2014. Input prices jumped, due to salary pressures, though output prices rose only slightly while overall price pressures remained weak by historical standards. The only bright spot was employment growth, with job creation the best since June.

• USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM-NMI is expected to fall to 58.0 from 59.0 in August. The July spike set a new post-recession high. Forecast risk: downward, given weakness in earlier month releases. Market risk: downward, as a run of weak data could impact rate hike time-lines. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.02.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD short-term trend remains flat and range bound with a price recovery towards the 1.1460 area looking unlikely as long as price remains below the 1.1280 level. Yesterday’s U.S. report revealed a disappointing September ISM drop and a downward bump in the construction spending though the three months ending in August was not enough to push the EURUSD to close above the lower end of the 1.12’s (61.8%). Potential trade setups for the short term are to enter short positions near 1.1280 for a 1.0930-1.0920 target; alternatively, on a clean break of 1.13, long positions could be opened for a 1.1460 initial target.

The European calendar yesterday was focused on manufacturing PMI readings. The overall Eurozone September manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 52.0, in line with the preliminary reading and down from 52.3 in the previous month. France is returning to growth and only Greece is in contraction territory, although, even the Greek manufacturing PMI has started to pick up again. So, pretty much a confirmation of what the ECB sees – ongoing growth, but with reduced momentum, even if the recovery is broadening somewhat.

The UK manufacturing PMI was slightly higher than expected at 51.5, which is only marginally down from August’s 51.6. The sector continues to expand, although it is holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4.

Bank of Japan sees little immediate need for adding stimulus according to Bloomberg headlines.

Fed Williams repeated his rate hike call for “sometime later this year” in his speech from Salt Lake City. The news shouldn’t sway the markets much ahead of today’s payrolls report.

NYMEX crude has fallen back to $45.20 lows, after peaking at $47.08 earlier. The move comes as the National Hurricane center shifts the path of the hurricane further East, and away from energy infrastructure on the northeastern coast.

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The JPY is weaker as Japan’s Tankan survey of business sentiment this week found the index for large manufacturers to be slightly worse than expected. A pattern that has been persisting since mid-August with periodic bouts of demand for the safe haven of the yen having been interspersed with bouts of relative calm. In the background are expectations for the BoJ to expand its QQE program at its Oct-30 policy meeting.

The EUR has drifted modestly lower, to the 1.1160 area after failing to hold gains above 1.1200 on several attempts over the last day.

The GBP is mostly stronger as the U.K. construction PMI rose to 59.9 in the headline of the September survey, up from the 57.3 reading of the August survey and above the 57.5 median forecast. Residential construction rose at the quickest pace in a year, and job creation lifted to its best level in three months.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR ECB Draghi’s Speech: Draghi is taking a “wait and see stance” and with core inflation actually trending higher, labour markets stabilizing, wage growth picking up and credit conditions also improving it is not hard to see why.

• USD Nonfarm payrolls: September nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205k, with a 195k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 5.1% last month.

• USD Factory Orders: August factory orders are expected to fall 1.5% with inventories down 0.1%.Forecast risk: downward, given the weaker top-line durable goods numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timing.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 10.01.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to lack direction within the daily chart and it is beginning to appear that a trading range may be forming between the 1.1460 and 1.1090 levels over the short term. This period of lackluster price action should remain as the market waits for the U.S. jobs data due out on Friday. Traders should look towards commodity prices for any signs of a bottoming which may contradict data that still points to slower global growth. The likelihood of a stronger USD and weaker EUR should remain as the main trend into the year end as fallout from the European automotive industry and the likelihood of further ECM QE increases.

Today’s mixed European PMI readings will give ECB policy makers something to argue about at the next council meeting, especially as downside risks are picking up in light of developments in the global economy and the fallout from the emission scandal for European automakers. The current mixed readings are clearly showing up in the EUR as price has yet to choose a direction with trader’s undecided on which side of the trade to take.

The global stock market rebound is still continuing for now, despite a dip in Japan’s Tankan index, and stabilization in China’s manufacturing PMI at contraction levels. The USD has been trading firmer against the EUR and GBP over the last 5 trading days on the back of a strong Wall Street close and follow-up gain in Asian stock markets. The AUD and CAD, meanwhile, rallied to one-week highs versus the USD, while the NZD hit a two-week peak.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors as the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggests a slight slowdown in overall growth dynamics, but a more balanced picture across the Eurozone.

The GBP is trading mixed after the UK manufacturing PMI came in fractionally above market forecast.

The CHF is sharply lower in the wake of an unexpected dip in the Swiss SVME manufacturing PMI.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI is fractionally above forecast at 51.5 in September data. The survey this month indicates stabilization in the sector at moderate expansion, holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4, which was seen in June. Sterling has traded modestly higher in the wake of the data.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 270k (median 270k) in the week-ended September 26. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,213k for the week-ended September 19. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause.

• USD Manufacturing ISM: The September ISM is expected to rise to 52.0 from 51.1 in August. Forecast risk: upward, given strong component data in the early month reports. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.25.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The 1.1261 resistance was violated briefly yesterday but the sellers overcame the buyers pretty quickly and the 4h chart created a bearish pin bar with a close below the 1.1261 resistance. Since then the price has been moving lower creating a daily shooting star. This together with Yellen’s promise to raise rates by the end of the year 2015 suggests further dollar strength and euro weakness. However, in the daily picture EURUSD is still range bound and it’s therefore likely that the potential moves lower are gradual at first as the market needs to work its way through the support levels. Price is trading now at the lower Bollinger Bands and near historical support with Stochastics trying to tick higher in the oversold levels. The nearest support range is at 1.1017 – 1.1087 while the first daily resistance is at 1.1296, the yesterday’s high.

Fed Chair Yellen expects a rate increase this year, saying that “Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate that achieving these conditions will likely entail an increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter.” Of course, she gave herself ample wiggle room, saying “But if the economy surprises us, our judgments on appropriate policy will change.”Also, she cautioned that the Fed “…cannot be certain about the pace at which the headwinds still restraining the domestic economy will continue to fade.” So, a bit more certainty on the Fed path, but with plenty of space to delay rate liftoff if the Fed judges the economy is not ready. As for the economy, she said it is “no longer far away from full employment” on balance. “In contrast,” she noted, “inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s objectives over the past several years, and over the past 12 months it has been essentially zero.” Inflation expectations remain well anchored, she said, while temporary effects (declining energy and non-energy import prices) are the main cause of weak inflation.

Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow model dipped to 1.4%compared to its 1.5% estimate a week ago coinciding with the FOMC decision. As the regional Fed noted: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.4 percent on September 24, down slightly from 1.5 percent on September 17. The decline occurred on Monday when the model’s forecast for third-quarter real residential investment growth fell in response to the existing home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.” That’s still some distance from the average Blue Chip forecast near 2.5% (down from 3.2% in late July) and compared to our own 3.0% estimate.

The 5.7% August U.S. new home sales surge to a 552k rate extended the July bounce to a 522k (was 507k) pace from an oddly weak 466k (was 481k) seven-month low of in June. New home sales are outperforming pending and existing home sales while undershooting the various construction aggregates. New home sales have risen 104% from the 273k record-low in February of 2011, alongside smaller cyclical climbs of 45% for pending home sales and 54% for existing home sales from lows in 2010. We saw larger cyclical climbs of 136% for housing starts and 128% for permits from lows in 2009, and 126% for new home construction from a low in 2011. Median prices rose by 0.5% to $292,700, though the y/y gain fell to to 0.3% in August from 3.8% (was 2.0%) in July, while new home inventories rose by the same 0.5% to a 216k five-year high, following downward prior revisions.

SNB Plays The Waiting Game: The SNB confirmed its monetary policy stance at last week’s meeting and there was no major surprise in the statement. The central bank’s main scenario, as reflected also in yesterday’s quarterly bulletin, remains for a continuation of the moderate recovery in the global economy and a stabilisation in Swiss growth.

 

Currency Movers Charts   

In yesterday’s report we discussed the declined in UK Sterling and pointed out that GBPUSD is at levels that could attract buyers. This is what happened and today, while EUR is down the GBP is up. Due to euro weakness Sterling has risen most against the EUR but there are other interesting GBP pairs too. GBPJPY formed a bullish pin bar yesterday and is enjoying good upside momentum today. The nearest resistance level is at 186. GBPCHFbehaved very similarly and is up today after forming a bullish pin bar yesterday. The nearest resistance is at 1.5100.

I said in yesterday’s analysis that AUDUSD is approaching daily Bollinger bands and support which indicates that it is time to close the shorts opened after the shooting stars were formed. The pair touched the 1.5 sd band yesterday and has been reacting higher since. Today AUDJPY is moving higher after the AUDUSD found support yesterday and Japan’s inflation report adds to what we view as strong pressure for further easing measures. This argues for AUDJPY to move higher. The next resistance is at 85.88.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan’s core CPI fell 0.1% y/y in August after the flat (0.0%) reading in July. Core CPI rose at a 0.1% y/y pace in June and May. The core grew at a 0.3% y/y clip in April. We saw a 2.2% y/y rate in March, with dramatic slowing in annual growth since April due to the April 2014 tax hike. Total CPI grew at a 0.2% y/y pace in August, matching July after the 0.4% y/y rate in June. The global price backdrop continues to run contrary to the BoJ’s efforts to boost prices, as imported energy products produce a powerful drag on the core CPI (excludes fresh food but includes energy). This report adds to what we view as strong pressure for further easing measures, although we remain unconvinced of the effectiveness of ultra-accommodative policy on Japan’s economy.

• US GDP: The third release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be unrevised at 3.7% (median 3.7%) from the second release and 0.6% in Q1. Revisions should be mostly offsetting. We expect consumption to be revised up by $8 bln, construction up by $5 bln and net exports up by $2 bln. For downward revisions we expect intellectual property to be revised down by $4 bln and inventories to be revised down by $9 bln.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The second release on September Michigan Sentimentshould reveal an 87.0 (median 87.0) headline which would be revised up from 85.7 in the first release but still down from 91.9 in August. The current conditions index declined to 100.3 from 105.1 in the first release and the expectations index dropped to 76.4 from 83.4 in August. There has been a relatively consistent tendency for upward revisions in the second release over the past two years and this should lend some upside risk to the release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.