Free Forex Signals for 09.04.2015

EURUSD, Daily

Draghi’s suggestion that ECB could extend the QE program dropped EURUSD below the rising trendline and the 1.1154 support. Price found support from a pivotal high at 1.1093 which coincides with 50 day SMA. Indications as a whole are mixed as the nearest support is relatively near at a daily pivot candle (1.1018 – 1.1093). This range sent the market strongly higher on August 19^th which suggests that the level now holds some psychological value for the euro bulls but at the same time the sideways move and a new pivotal low at 1.1154 are very near. It has already proven to be a challenge for those with long bias today. The US Non-Farm Payroll figures are released today at 12:30 GMT. In case we see strong deviation from analyst expectations price is likely to fluctuate beyond the nearest resistance levels (1.1018 and 1.1154). Today’s NFP number is the last one before the next FOMC meeting and is seen as an important indicator for the Fed when it considers the timing of  their first rate hike. Other support and resistance levels: 1.0932 and 1.1334.

German July manufacturing orders dropped 1.4% m/m, a much weaker than expected number. At the same time, June was revised down to 1.8% m/m from 2.0% m/m reported initially and the annual rate came in at -0.6%, versus 7.0% y/y in June. Annual rates over the summer can be volatile, due to the different timing of school holidays throughout the states, but still, the fall into negative territory highlights that while growth seems to have held up over the summer, downside risks to the economy have increased. The data will further fuel rate cut hopes and backs to the renewed jump in Bund futures at the start of the session.

ECB Increases Room to Maneuver: As expected, the ECB left monetary policy unchanged at the August council meeting. But Draghi was tricky, boosting bond as well as stock markets and bringing the EUR down with a technical tweak to the issue limits of QE purchases. In itself that doesn’t change the policy stance, but rather ensures that the central bank doesn’t run into supply constraints in its attempt to see through the current program.

US Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow was revised up to 1.5% from 1.3% previously following personal consumption and auto sales updates. According to the regional Fed: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 3, up from 1.3 percent on September 1. The nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ticked up from 2.6 percent to 2.7 percent following yesterday afternoon’s release on August motor vehicle sales from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

US ISM non-manufacturing index dipped to 59.0 in August after exploding to 60.3 in July (which was the highest print since August 2005). It’s still the 3rd highest print on record however, though declines were broad-based. The business activity index slipped to 63.9 from 64.9. However, the employment index dropped to 56.0 from 59.6 previously. New orders fell to 63.4 from 63.8. New export orders dropped to 52.0 versus 56.5. Prices paid declined to 50.8 from 53.7.

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JPY has been strong across the board today. It is a logical continuation to the risk aversion move that started when the global stocks followed S&P 500 lower. JPY has been especially strong against AUD over the last three weeks. This has driven AUDJPY to a weekly support at 83.57. EURJPY made a lower high before dropping lower and is now approaching a weekly support at 131.87. CADJPY has also been weak and broken lower. The former pivotal support at 91.74 now limits the moves higher. GBPJPY is getting near to major support levels in the region of 179.30.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• US Non-Farm Payrolls: August employment data should reveal a 215k (median 220k) headline that matches July’s 215k gain. The report will be closely scrutinized as the recent market volatility and weakness in China have renewed the debate about whether the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting. The volatile month weighed on producer sentiment measures for the month and consumer confidence was depressed as well lending adding downside risk to the release.
• Canada Employment numbers are expected to fall 5.0k in August (median -2.5k) after the 6.6k rise in July. Canada has yet to put together back to back gains this year. So far, we have seen an oscillating pattern of gains (Jan, Mar, July) followed by declines (Feb, Apr, June). Will August be different? We are betting not, hence we see a modest decline. An as-expected dip would not alter the key take away from the labour market this year — job growth may be modest but it is enough to keep the unemployment rate at 6.8% (with the help from a falling participation rate).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.03.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is trading near the upper weekly Bollinger Bands (20) after peaking higher last week. The move reached a high of 1.1714 and was reversed at a pivotal low from November 2005. This rejection brought the pair down to a level that resisted price moved higher in the beginning of August. This level also coincides with a rising trendline suggesting there is currently more potential in the upside while the immediate downside potential is limited. This view is supported by the Stochastics Oscillator (7,3,3) being oversold and starting to creep higher. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1156 and 1.1369. The 1369 resistance is a daily high from Aug 27^th and a pivotal candle low.

The ECB is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, leaving the focus on the updated set of staff projections and the press conference. With growth forecasts overshadowed by concerns about China and lower than expected oil prices keeping headline inflation down, both growth and CPI forecasts are likely to be scaled back. In the base scenario the central bank is pretty much expected to remain on hold into next year, and Draghi will highlight the heightened risks to growth and highlight that the ECB stands ready to act should these risks materialise. Lower than expected inflation meanwhile is almost entirely due to lower oil prices and core inflation is rising, in tandem with money supply growth and a stabilisation in loan growth. If Draghi follows Constancio’s argument that the central bank needs to see through short term volatility caused by energy prices markets are likely to register disappointment, especially as some will be betting on a surprise move already today. So the EUR may rise again.

The IMF is warning the Fed not to tighten policy in a note to policymakers ahead of the weekend’s G20 gathering in Ankara. The Fund argued that the Fed should “remain data-dependent” and not take hasty action “with little evidence of meaningful wage and price pressures so far.” The IMF also calls on the ECB to extend QE, and for the BoJ to stand ready to do the same with its QQE program. The Fund is concerned about low inflation in major economies, arguing that “monetary policy must stay accommodative to prevent real interest rates from rising prematurely,” and also stressed that risks to the global economy have risen.

As central bankers ponder their next policy moves, Bank of International Settlements and IMF take very different views of persistent monetary policy accommodation and the fact that markets continue to rely on central banks. The IMF once again called on the Fed to refrain from hikes and the ECB to expand QE, while the BIS in its latest annual report called on policy makers to shift the view from short term stimulus to longer term growth measures to boost sustainable growth. Even ECB vice president Constancio said recently that monetary policy can only support not create growth and we tend to agree. Furthermore, as the BIS highlighted “signs of growing financial imbalances around the globe highlight the risks of accommodative monetary policies”. Adverse reactions even to the possibility of not so much monetary tightening but a reduction of the still very substantial degree of monetary accommodation highlight the challenges central banks will face when trying to return to more normal conditions. In this situation additional easing may only exacerbate the problem especially as low inflation is more than ever a function of oil prices, rather than the sign of broad based deflation risks, at least for Europe.

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Worries over Chinese economic growth are once again proving too hard for the buyers of AUD. The pair is down against all the competitors while the metals markets are down as well. AUDUSD is trading near a huge bottoming formation from year 2008 but at the moment there are no signs of this helping to support price. NZD has been rallying against the AUD today. According to newstalkzb.co.nz the price of milk powder rallied by over 12% a couple of days ago. This translated into AUDNZD dropping lower from a resistance level near the upper daily Bollinger Bands (20). The pair is now trading near a potential support in sideways range. EURAUD is trading above January 2015 highs but just below a resistance created in May 2008. That explains the strong reaction lower from 1.6340.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

 

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone Jul retail sales rose 0.4% m/m, less than we expected, but with June revised up to -0.2% m/m from -0.6% m/m reported initially, the three months trend rate still picked up to 0.4% from 0.3% in the three months to June. The annual rate meanwhile jumped to 2.7% from 1.7% in June. The data confirms that consumption trends continue to support growth in Q3, which ties in with improving labour market and the rise in real disposable income also thanks to the low inflation environment.
• Canada Trade Balance: We expect a widening in the trade deficit to -C$1.0 bln in July (median -C$1.1 bln) from -C$0.5 bln in June. The key for the report will be exports, for which we have penciled in for a 0.3% m/m gain in July after the 6.3% surge in June. A mix of factors were present in July, as oil prices tumbled and the Canadian dollar depreciated. At any rate, further growth in exports would offer key support to the BoC’s constructive outlook for second half growth, especially in the wake of the 0.5% bounce in June GDP.
• US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 29th and should reveal an increase to a 278k (median 272k) headline from 271k in the week of August 22nd. Claims are poised to average 272k, steady from July when potential auto retooling distortions were at play. We expect August employment to reveal a 215k headline with the unemployment rate ticking down to 5.2% from 5.3% in July.
• US Non-Manufacturing ISM: Service sector producer sentiment is out today to finish off the August sentiment measures. We expect a decline to 58.0 (median 58.2) from 60.3 in July. Other sentiment measures for the month were much weaker and the ISM declined to 51.1 from 52.7. Overall, we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to drop to 51 after holding at 53 in both July and June.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 09.01.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The global stock market selloff continued in overnight trade in Asia, with the Nikkei dropping off another 3.84%. The USD traded mostly weaker; oil prices have fallen back off the recent high price near $54.3, and now trades just below $53 after rallying strongly over the three previous sessions. The USD weakness may be linked to the new declines in Chinese and global stock markets, this global selloff has investors and traders rethinking the timing of when the U.S. Fed will tighten rates. This uncertainty regarding the timing of a U.S. rate hike is fueling the current downward pressure on the USD. Markets will remain volatile until the markets see clearer signs from the U.S. Fed.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the immediate short term remains to be contained within the Aug 7th – Aug 12th upward slopping price channel. Now that the price has clearly bounced off the 1.12’s key, support current price potential is set to test the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. However, any break below 1.12 could open up a 1.11 target. A hypothetical trade set up could be to resell near the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s for a 1.11 target.

German jobless numbers fell 7K in August, slightly more than expected and leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless rate steady at a low 6.4%. Official numbers still look good, but the improvement on the labour market is levelling off as the market is increasingly tight.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.0%, as widely expected and ignoring recent market turmoil in Chinese stock markets. The AUD is seen as adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices and further depreciation seems likely; however, the RBA is now cautious about adjusting rates lower because of the strong Australian property market.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The USD is softer across the board as declines in Chinese and global stock markets and the associated risk-off sentiment has served to erode Fed tightening expectations, which weighed on the USD.

The AUD is weaker post-RBA statement gains amid a backdrop of declining Asian and global stock markets.

The EUR and the GBP are mostly trading mixed as the EU commission maintains a 1.5% growth forecast, , and UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Manufacturing PMI: August manufacturing PMI revised down to 52.3 from 52.4 reported initially, which means the overall reading fell slightly from the 52.4 reported for July, despite the sharp jump in the German reading. Confidence indicators overall still held up in August, but the downward revision ties in with contraction in China and is likely to herald further weakness in coming months as demand falls off with slowing growth in emerging markets and uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed at 51.5 in August, down from July’s 51.9 reading and below the median forecast for 52.0. The August dip brings the PMI indicator to within a whisker of June’s two-year low of 51.4. The strong trade-weighted value of sterling has been curtailing the export-sensitive sector.

• CAD Gross Domestic Product: GDP is seen falling 1.0% in Q2 (q/q,) after the 0.6% drop in Q1. But the expected 0.2% gain in June GDP would end a five month run of monthly GDP declines and support Bank expectations that the economy will recover in 2H.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: August ISM will be released later today and should reveal a headline decline to 52.5 (median 52.7) from 52.7 in July. Other measures of producer sentiment have been volatile for the month with big drops in the Empire State, and Richmond and Dallas Fed’s. The Philly Fed did manage to climb higher to 8.3 from 5.7 last month. Despite this the balance of risk for tomorrow’s release is to the downside and we expect the broader ISM-adjusted average for the month to fall to 52 after holding at 53 in both July and June.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.31.2015

EURUSD, Daily

Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28% decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets.

Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts don’t price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central bank’s inflation forecasts at Thursday’s council meeting.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12’s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12’s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12’s with support levels seen near the low 1.11’s – 1.1150’s.

Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank “centers of influence members” since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U.S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that “there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further,” while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said he’s less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in “quite solid mode of expansion.”

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2% y/y in July slowing from 0.4% in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6% q/q for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1% y/y, after it had fallen 0.9% in June.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1% (median same) from 0.2%, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursday’s central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.28.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD hit a low near the key 1.12 support level on Thursday , I previously posted “I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.” This I posted when the EURUSD was trading around 1.1311. At the moment, the euro is likely to continue its bounce off the key support as buyers emerged to support price. The risk for short sellers is that the latest bounce could extend out towards the 1.14’s – 15’s. However, traders should be on alert for any price drop below the 1.12’s as this move may raise fears for a return towards the low 1.11’s to mid 1.1150’s.

The rebound on stock markets continued in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp up 1.77% and Japanese markets outperforming. The USD managed to firm up in the wake of renewed optimism about the U.S. economy following yesterday’s revised Q2 GDP, which also helped the U.S. Dow Jones to close up 2.30% on Thursday. Today, the Eurozone stock markets are broadly lower, with Eurozone markets underperforming and the DAX down around 8% for the month. The markets are now hoping that stimulus from central banks may have helped to limit the sell off. Uncertainty about growth and central bank outlooks is adding to market volatility and means the impact of stronger than expected data is unclear.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The AUD is weaker across the board as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. Also, the unrest in China’s stock markets remains the major risk factor for the AUD. The GBP trades lower after a bout of sterling buying in the wake of UK Q2 GDP data, which was unrevised at +0.7% q/q.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP: UK GDP was left unrevised at +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y in second-estimate data, matching expectations. Growth in 2014 was also left unrevised, at 3.0%. The breakdown showed a 3.7% q/q rise in exports versus just a 0.6% q/q increase in imports, while consumer spending eased to +0.7% q/q. Encouragingly, business expenditure rose 2.9% q/q, the biggest rise in 12 months, and by 5.0% y/y.

• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): The second release on Michigan Sentiment is out Today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 93.5 (median 94.0) after a 92.9 headline in the first release that marked a decline from 93.1 in July. The tendency over the past year has been for upward revisions and consumer confidence for the month spiked higher, rising to 101.5 from 91.0 in July. These two factors should lend upside risk to the release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.27.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7% decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro; speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.

European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34% gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08% higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3%. In Europe, most markets are up around 2%, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34% gain – the FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and the Euro Stoxx 2.20%.

Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U.S. and the U.K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook.

Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike “seems less compelling to me” than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly +3.95% in Wednesday trade.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120’s.

The commodity driven currencies; AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous session’s sharp sell off of the GBPUSD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5% (median 3.3%) from 2.3% in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by $17 bln, inventories by $16 bln, consumption by $11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by $2 bln.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.26.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The hope for a rebound in European stock markets didn’t last long, and equities are selling off again, with the DAX down at the market opening and below the 10000 mark. China’s rate cut yesterday by the People’s Bank of China initiated a rebound in Asian equity markets. It seems the realization in Europe is that the underlying problem is due to the fact that emerging markets are slowing down. The Euro Stoxx 600 has dropped 12% in August so far, and is heading for the worst monthly drop since 2008.

The medium term view on the EURUSD, since price has traded through the May tops at the 1.1430’s and then back under to touch below the 1.14 support on Tuesday, indicates that price still remains at risk of a continued retracement. The risk for longs is a re-visit towards the former major resistance 1.12 area where traders should watch for a potential higher low to develop before any attempt to retest the 1.17 recent high.

The USD gets some support as the U.S. consumer confidence rose sharply to 101.5 in August after climbing to 91.0 in June (revised from 90.9). It was 90.3 a year ago. This is the best level since March. The USD is trading mostly higher against the JPY, GBP, AUD and CHF, ahead of today’s Core Durable Goods Orders data.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is weakening across the board as regional stocks rose. The CAD is stronger against all majors as Crude prices firm up.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Durable Goods Orders: July durable goods data is out today and should show orders up 1.0% (median -0.5%) following a 3.4% bounce in June. Markets expect shipments to be up 1.5% from 0.5% in June and inventories to be up 0.6%, the same pace as June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.66 after two months at 1.68. There is some downside risk as Boeing orders fell to 101 in July from 181 in June.

• USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks: Dudley is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.25.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading lower this Tuesday after a nearly +340 pip move with the main cause pointing to Chinese retail investors’ realization that their government is no longer willing to support the Chinese stock markets. Monday’s aggressive global stock market sell-off was amplified by a number of brewing factors, the devaluation of the Yuan, the collapse of commodity prices, and the uncertainty of when Central banks will start to tighten rates.

At the moment, the EURUSD is at risk of a retracement of the 1.1020-1.17 sharp multi up-day move. However, the EURUSD saw serval breaks of resistance that could lead to further positive upward momentum on price. Traders should now be on alert if the former 1.1530 resistance now turned support can hold before initiating new longs, otherwise a possibility dip towards the mid 1.13’s could see buyers remerge to support price for a potential next leg higher move above the 1.1750’s.

The German DAX remains clearly below the 10000 mark and Asian markets were volatile in overnight trade, with the ASX closing higher, but the Nikkei losing nearly 4% again.

Crude Oil touched $37.70 after making it to $39’s following its entry into to the $37‘s. The slide lower comes as traders fear that global stock markets may pick up downward momentum again; the price fall indicates that traders view that global demand for the commodity will weaken as the Chinese economic slowdown takes hold.

The White House said the Treasury is “closely monitoring” global markets and China should continue to pursue reforms, while touting the strength of the U.S. economy. However, it did warn that Congress needs to pass the budget and avoid shutdowns to avoid “self-inflicted wounds”. Merkel of Germany said that a crisis in China won’t last and it will do everything it can to stabilize the situation, while Hollande of France said China will find the right answers to secure its economy.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is lower against the majors after the JPY showed strong gains as a safe haven currency during yesterday’s volatile trading session. The USDJPY bounced nearly 300 points from the lows, as Wall Street pares its losses; USDJPY touched 119.02 highs after collapsing from over 120.00 to nearly 2015 lows of 116.15. The AUD is trading higher as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. The EUR is trading mixed after the German Ifo index rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German IFO Index: rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. This was even stronger than consensus forecast, with markets looking for a correction, although the rebound in German PMIs and strong orders already suggested that the Ifo would hold up. The breakdown confirmed that the improvement was entirely due to a jump in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward looking expectations index fell back slightly to 102.2 from 102.3 in July. The deteriorating growth outlook in China and other emerging markets may not have had an immediate impact on this month’s reading, but will be felt in coming month. Bund futures extended losses on the stronger than expected number, with the September contract now down 90 ticks on the day.

• USD Consumer Confidence : August Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 92.0 from 90.9. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decline in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.24.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The risk-off theme continues in global financial markets as traders re-price the USD in view of the reduced chance that the Fed will begin tightening rates in September. The EURUSD is now trading near multi month highs around 1.15 after accelerating through my 1.1260’s target area; see my August 14 report, current price is starting to look overbought ahead of the 1.1530 resistance level. EURUSD traders should watch if price can hold above the 1.1436 support level before initiating new longs, otherwise a break below the 1.1430’s could open up the possibility for a set-back towards the 1.1216 – 1.1189 levels ahead of an advance on the 1.16’s.

German property prices continue to rise, with prices for apartments rising by around 1.4% m/m. The overall index rose 0.73% m/m and up 5.3% y/y. Low interest rates and a robust labour market are driving up property prices, but while the Bundesbank is keeping a close eye on developments it is not seeing signs of a serious property bubble at the moment, even if prices in key cities are already overvalued.

Asian and emerging market currencies are under pressure, along with commodity related currencies such as the AUD and the CAD as the FOMC minutes showed a Committee divided, the minutes gave no clear signals on the timing of a rate liftoff, however the mention of risks from China, the growth/inflation impacts of a stronger dollar, and a downgraded inflation outlook from the Fed Staff resulted in a downbeat market interpretation. China will remain a focal point as Chinese officials struggle with a slowing economy and falling equity market.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5 day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The AUD is trading lower as the spill-over from the turmoil in China’s stock markets remain a risk factor for the AUD.  The JPY is trading higher as talk of further easing to stimulate growth continues to gain momentum.

The EUR over the last five trading days is stronger as the current sell off in the Chinese stock markets and weak commodity prices may have the market rethinking a US rate move in September.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is due to speak today.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Free Forex Signals for 08.21.2015

EURUSD, Daily

Euro has been a funding currency for carry trades. Market participants have been borrowing in euros at near zero rates and investing in better yielding Asian economies where the rates are higher. Lately however carry traders (in short Euro positions) have been forced to unwind these investments as euro has been trending higher. The latest rally moved EURUSD far outside the upper Bollinger bands. This rally ran into a resistance at 1.1292, a daily low from June 19^th. A move outside daily Bollinger bands and close to a resistance is likely to be reversed and price needs to move lower to find support levels from which to attempt to move higher again. The nearest support area is at 1.1189 -1.1216 but this area is rather high up in the range of the recent uptrend. If the recent momentum continues the this area can provide a level for a new reaction low but should that be violated a more reliable support area for EURUSD is closer to a weekly high of 1.0966 at 1.1018 – 1.1094.

In terms of weekly picture and sideways movement we’ve seen since May this year the pair is getting a bit pricey. This limits the upside potential and should trigger a more careful approach to trading the long side. On the fundamental side Fed’s lack of commitment to raising rates (evident in the latest FOMC minutes) and Chinese slowdown together with increased volatility in emerging markets raises the possibility that EURUSD will keep on appreciating. The CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index has risen from July 17^th low of 17.59 to 28.56 at the time of writing, a rise of 62.36%.

All this increases the likelihood that the Fed will start paying attention to the risk of adding more instability to these markets by increasing the rates. However, from a technical point of view, a resistance is a resistance until it has been penetrated. Therefore signs of reversal near weekly highs should be taken seriously and traded appropriately. Major weekly support area will be found between 1.0809 and 1.0996.

Greek elections to bring stability or more chaos? Tsipras decision to resign to pave the way for snap elections was not a total surprise, given the unraveling of Syriza amid the controversy over Greece’s 3rd bailout. It is not clear yet when elections will be held, but a September 20 date, as an official yesterday suggested, would be ahead of the 1st bailout review and debt relief talks which raise some risks. Tsipras may be hoping that the vote will bolster his eroding power base and Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said he hoped the elections will bring more stability and will come early. However, the reforms will hardly bring any real improvement in the short term and could still see anti-austerity forces gaining strength, which has the potential to throw Greece back to where it was earlier in the year, if a new left government doesn’t want to see through the agreed reforms.

German consumers start to worry about growth outlook. The overall projection for consumer confidence in September came in weaker than expected at 9.9, down from 10.1 in August. The August breakdown showed a fresh drop in the reading for the economic outlook to just 16.6 less than half the 38.3 at the peak back in May. Income expectations are also coming off the boil and the willingness to buy is easing, which suggests the strong boost from consumption that has been helping the German economy to recover this year may taper off. This will add to concerns about the impact of the slowdown in China on the German economy.

The July US existing home sales rose 2.0% to a 5.59 mln new cycle-high clip extended the June surge to a 5.48 (was 5.49) mln prior cycle-high to leave an encouraging report overall. We now have cyclical gains of 62% for existing home sales and 44% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 79% for new home sales, 152% for housing starts, and 118% for permits. More generally, the housing recovery lost steam after the Fed’s taper talk and mortgage rate gains of mid-2013, and sales are just 5.3% above the 5.31 mln prior recent-peak in July of 2013 as we approach the presumed start of Fed tightening. Existing home sales fell 3.0% for 2014 overall to a 4.92 mln rate despite the underlying recovery, and we expect an 8% 2015 climb that brings us back to the mid-2013 sales pace. The percentage of all-cash transactions rose to 23% from 22% in June but a higher 24% over the prior three months, versus a much higher 29% last July. The downtrend is a good sign for ongoing repair in the mortgage market.

 

 

Currency Movers Charts   (Click here for Live Charts)

AUD is down again against all the major competitors while a safe haven currency JPY is benefiting from uncertainty that is clearly visible in the global stock markets. S&P 500 ended down over 2% yesterday while German DAX hadn’t a single issue that rose yesterday. Today Shanghai Composite closed down by 4.7% while euro has been benefiting from carry trade unwinds. All this points to more unstable times ahead and is in line with my predictions on global stock markets May this year (tweet: Bull market for stocks is over). This should also translate into added volatility in the currency markets and provide traders with new opportunities.

Today’s moves have driven AUDCHF and AUDJPY at support areas created by the lower daily Bollinger bands while EURAUD is trading near a pivotal weekly high from October last year.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• China’s manufacturing PMI fell to a preliminary 47.1 in August from a final 47.8 in July. The decline was contrary to expectations for some modest improvement and left the lowest reading since March of 2009. The report suggests the weakness evident in China’s economy during July continued in August, ultimately exacerbating the China slowdown fears the have roiled global markets last week and this week.
• Eurozone PMIs stabilise in August, with the manufacturing reading holding steady at 52.4 and the services number rising to 54.3. Better than Bloomberg consensus, with strong German orders data helping to boost the German manufacturing PMI, which compensated for another drop in the French reading.
• Canada Retail Sales: We expect retail sales to rise 0.1% in June (median +0.3%) after the 1.0% bounce in May. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.5% in June (median +0.5%) following the 0.9% gain in May. Gasoline prices rose 6.0% in June according to the CPI, which should boost total and ex-auto sales. We could see a sizable boost, suggesting upside risk to the total and ex-autos sales estimates.
• Canada CPI should expand at a 1.4% y/y pace in July (median same at +1.4%) following the 1.0% y/y rate in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.2% gain in June. Gas prices were essentially flat in July compared to June.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokersofficial website:http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.