FOREX News Today

US Data Reports: Revealed weak August data for existing home sales and leading indicators, but a tight initial claims report for the BLS survey week of September that left mixed signals that were positive on net, with aid from a 0.5% July rise in the FHFA home price index. The 0.9% August existing home sales drop to a 5.33 mln rate left a Q3 trimming of Q2 gains, though the median price decline to $240,200 was largely seasonal and left that figure close to the $247,600 all-time high in June. The 0.2% August leading indicators drop tracked estimates, with weakness that reflects declines in the factory sensitive sectors. Most importantly, an 8k initial claims drop to 252k in the BLS survey week left that measure just above the 42-year low of 248k in mid-April, as claims tighten into the end of Q3 to signal upside risk for the 170k September nonfarm payroll estimate.

U.S. VIX equity volatility slumped 10%: It fell below 12.0 after the Fed on Wednesday and that’s put the VIX within a hair of 11.65 September lows compared to highs of 20.51 earlier in the month when the ECB held rates pat rather than easing again as expected (nothing to see here, no correlation). Year lows of 11.02 appear to be within reach, while life lows of 8.2 lie below as the markets continue to disbelieve the “cry wolf” hawkish Fedspeak, though 3 dissenters would suggest the Fed is very close to a second hike. Should the pendulum swing back again, that could put the 26.72 Brexit high back on the radar. Meanwhile, after bottoming at 2,119.1 in September, the S&P 500 looks poised to take another stab at 2,193.81 life highs set on August 15, barring a swing in the polls ahead of November elections.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down (Nikkei closed -0.32%) . Australia’s ASX outperformed, as mining and energy stocks and especially gold led the way. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are also slightly in the red and oil prices are down from highs of over USD 46 per barrel. Consolidation after yesterday/s celebration of the Fed’s steady hand policy, seems to be the order of the day, but while European stocks are likely to see some correction investors seem to be breathing more easily now. The 10-year Bund future already moved off highs in after hour trade yesterday and yields, which dropped sharply in Europe yesterday, are likely to pick up somewhat. The European calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for September, which we expect to stabilise after the mixed August numbers. The final reading for French Q2 GDP meanwhile is not expected to hold any surprise.

FX Update: The dollar has firmer back some following yesterday’s underperformance as the fizz of the post-FOMC risk-on theme abated. EURUSD has ebbed back to the 1.1200 area after peaking yesterday at an eight-day at 1.1257, and Cable has breached below yesterday’s low in making 1.3030. The yen also recouped from weakness, with the currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market performance. USDJPY clocked a two-session high at 101.24 earlier in Tokyo, and has since ebbed back to the 100.90 area. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also softer. Commodity and emerging market currencies have also given back some of the gains seen in the wake of the FOMC announcement. Not much near-term downside potential in the dollar as market participants will, like the Fed, be data dependent in forming their commitment.

Main Macro Events Today        

• Eurozone PMI – After the mixed August numbers, expectations are for a stabilization in September with only a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5, from 51.7 in the previous month, which should partly be compensated by the expected uptick in the services reading to 52.9 from 52.8 and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8, versus 52.9 in August.

• Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales – July Retail Sales are expected to pick up from -0.1% reading in June to 0.1% (MoM) whilst CPI YoY for August is also expected to tick up to 1.4% from 1.3%. The MoM figure should rise to 0.1% for August from -0.2% in July.

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

The FOMC: No change and no surprise the result was a bit of a tangled web of contradictions. The Fed said the case for a rate hike had strengthened, though policymakers for the “time being” decided to hold off and allow the economy “some room to run.” Yet there were three dissents (Mester, George and Rosengren) in favour of an immediate hike, indicating acrimony beneath the surface as on the other side three members see the possibility of no rate increase this year. The Fed’s own economic and policy projections were mostly downgraded, seemingly at odds with their hair-trigger outlook. Amidst the contradictions, the Fed has maintained that it is not politically motivated, which could ruffle more than a few feathers in the event of a hike as soon as November. In her press conference MRs Yellen maintained that all meetings were “live” and the move to keep interest rates on hold “does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy” but was due to a slow uptake of labour-market slack and inflation below the 2% target. CMEGroup’s federal funds futures now shows a 60% chance of a rate rise in December.

RBNZ: Also no change and suggested a decline in the NZD is needed, monetary policy to remain accommodative and “further easing will be required”. Weak global growth and low rates continues to put upward pressure on NZD and makes it difficult for the RBNZ to reach its 2% inflation target. Strong domestic growth supported by high levels of migration (which is also keeping earnings growth down) tourism and construction. House price inflation remains “excessive”.  Outlook for the key Dairy season remains “uncertain”. NZDUSD rose to 0.7370 before falling back to 0.7330.

FX Update: USDJPY extended into one-month low territory under 100.10 as markets digest yesterday’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions and guidance of yesterday. To recap, the BoJ overhauled its policy framework, introducing “QQE with yield curve control” and an “inflation-overshooting commitment,” but the main policy rate and the -0.1% rate on selected reserves, and other policy variables, were left unchanged — there was no actually increase in stimulus. As for the Fed, while saying the case for tightening had increased, leaving the door open to a hike by year-end, the pace of tightening envisaged in 2017 was reduced relative to guidance given in June. USDJPY has duly reacted with a downward shift. The August-16 low at 99.54 provides the next downside target, and below here is the post-Brexit vote low at 98.98. Japanese policymakers won’t be liking the appreciation of the yen, so we can expect more rhetorical warnings, but it will hard for them to justify actual interventions while yield differentials are moving in favour of further USDJPY declines. Outside the case of USDJPY, the dollar is broadly lower, showing about an average 0.3% decline versus the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar currently. GBPUSD formed a tweezer bottom on last night’s daily candle.

European Outlook: Asian stocks rallied (Japan was closed for a holiday), following on from gains on Wall Street after the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday. The FOMC said the case for a hike “has strengthened”, but decided to stay put for the time being, FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher, but U.S. stock futures are already in the red again. Bund futures managed to recover losses in after hour trade and in the wake of the Fed decision and could see some early gains, after yesterday’s sell off, although stock moves and the realization that neither BoJ nor ECB are eager to delve further into negative interest rate territory, should keep a lid on gains. Gilts are likely to continue to outperform as the BoE keeps the door open to another cut. Oil prices are higher, with the front end WTI future currently trading at USD 45.77 per barrel. The European calendar starts to pick up with French national business confidence numbers, the U.K’s CBI industrial Trends survey and preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers in the afternoon. The ECB releases its latest economic bulletin, although the articles have already been published in advance this week so there shouldn’t be big surprises.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Initial Jobless claims –  Initial claims data for the week of September 17 is out later and should show the headline holding at 260k (median 262k), steady from last week and just above 259k in the week of September 3. Claims look poised to average 260k in September from 262k in August and 260k in July. Expectations for  nonfarm payrolls to be up 170k in September with the unemployment rate steady from 4.9%.

• Draghi and Carney speeches –  Both central bank heads are due to speak later today. First up is President Draghi at 13:00 GMT at the ESRB in Frankfurt and later Governor Carney (17:00 GMT) in Berlin.

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

The BoJ: Announced a policy framework overhaul, which it called “QQE with yield curve control.” It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. The BoJ said the scale of the QQE program remained on hold, and that overall asset purchases would remain “more or less in line with the current pace,” although the maturity target has been abolished. The timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target has been set, quite simply, as “the earliest possible time.” Aside from detailing the new framework, the BoJ also provided an assessment of the failure to have pushed CPI to 2%, blaming “exogenous factors,” including the fall in oil prices, sluggish global demand and financial market volatility. On the economy, the BoJ said recovery “is likely to remain slow.” The yen dove nearly 1% as markets digested the new framework see below.

FX Update: USDJPY is registering a near 1% gain as the London interbank take to their desks. After initially dipping as the BoJ refrain from extending its NIRP policy, the pair rallied as the yen fell across-the-board as markets digested an overhaul in the BoJ’s policy framework. It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. USD-JPY clocked an eight-day high at 102.78. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also vaulted higher. Whether the new framework will general sustained yen weakness remains to be seen. Spill over dollar strength following the BoJ’s announcement drove EUR-USD to a three-week low at 1.1123.

BoC’s Poloz said it is unclear if the bank will cut its forecast in October, responding to a question in his recently started Q&A with the press. He noted that the export gain in July provides some reassurance, but also said weakness in export data is unexplained. Keeping his constructive tone intact, he said he expects a large recovery in the level of non-commodity exports. As for the downward shift in inflation risks, he explained that the output gap and exports are behind the downward tilt. But the output gap is the biggest factor in lower inflation outlook he said. Responding to a question on housing, he said a slowdown in one housing market is rarely contagious. As for the renewal of the 2% inflation targeting mandate that is due in upcoming weeks, he said it is the Finance Department’s decision to make. It is a pretty high bar for changing the target, but it is not impossible, the Governor said. And repeating his previous view, he said the adjustment to the oil shock will take several years.

European Outlook: Japanese stocks jumped higher leading broad gains on other European markets after the Bank of Japan decided not to cut interest rates further. The reaction shows that markets and especially banks were weary of a further deepening of negative rates, which banks and insurers in particular are struggling to cope with. The Bank said it is shifting to a greater focus on the shape of the yield curve saying that it will increase bond purchases “more of less in line with the current pace” of 80 trillion yen per year. It also kept the door open to another rate cut. The Yen was under pressure after the decision, which underpinned the outperformance of Japanese stock markets. U.S. and U.K. futures are also higher ahead of the Fed decision, which is likely to see policy unchanged leaving the focus on the forward guidance. Oil prices are also higher, although the front end WTI future is down from earlier highs of over USD 45 per barrel at currently USD 44.89. European markets will look ahead to the Fed decision, but the local calendar also has U.K. public finance data. ECB’s Praet meanwhile stressed again this morning that the central bank will maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation.

Main Macro Events Today        

• FOMC Outlook –  The two day FOMC meeting started yesterday with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively later today. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.

•  RBNZ – Expectations are for no change in the base rate from its current 2.00% level, still by far the the highest in the G10 countries.

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with some bourses swinging between gains and losses, as traders hold back ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and BoJ announcements. The Nikkei closed down -0.16%. The bullish sentiment on European stock markets yesterday that was underpinned by hopes that the BoJ could add some stimulus and a pick up in oil prices, already fizzled out in the later U.S. session as the oil prices dipped again and with the front end WTI futures falling further today and threatening to fall below USD 43 per barrel, risk appetite has faded. U.S. stock futures are posting slight gains, but the FTSE 100 is down, suggesting that European markets are poised for a correction in catch up trade. The European calendar is virtually empty.

RBA Minutes: “Rising AUD would complicate rebalancing of the economy”, following slow down on mining investment. The decline in the AUD since 2013 has “continued to support traded sector of economy”. Cost pressures and wage growth set to remain low and little change expected in unemployment in coming months.  “Economy growing in line with potential” and current stance on policy “consistent with growth and inflation targets”.  Looks like its neutral for  longer and same tone as other “data dependent” central banks. AUDUSD 0.7540 and capped by the 20 DMA.

German PPI: the German PPI for August missed expectations coming in at -0.1% (0.0% expected). Slightly softer than hoped and not good news for ECB. EURUSD remains in tight overnight range pivoting around 1.1170.

U.S. NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index jumped to 65 in September: This was up 6 points from 59 in August (revised down from 60 previously). It’s the highest since last October, which was also a 65 print, and was 61 a year ago. The 2016 range has been from 58 to 65, and over the past ten years has ranged from 65 to 34  over the past decade. The future sales index also rose to 71 from 66. The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 48 from 44. All four regions posted gains, led by the West which soared to 82 from 68.

FX Update: All quiet on the forex front, with the main currency pairings having posted ultra narrow ranges as market participants remain on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions. Consensus expectations are the Fed will refrain from easing,  while there are some expectations that the BoJ to trim its -0.1% reserve deposit rate further into negative territory while skewing QQE purchases toward the shorter and middle parts of the maturity spectrum to facilitate curve steepening, with the aim of mitigating the negative effects the program has had on financial intermediation. 60% of respondents to a Reuters expected the BoJ to move this week, though there was some discord among those anticipating action in the extent of what the central bank will do. With the costs and benefits of the three-year old QQE program fading, many expect a shift in policy focus to interest rates and NIRP. How markets react is a tough call, though we think the risks for USD-JPY are to the downside. Past BoJ easing measures in the Abenomics era have generally failed to weaken the yen, and the central bank would have to be aggressive if it wants a weaker currency.

Main Macro Events Today        

• BOJ Outlook –  The two day meeting started earlier today and the announcement and press conference are scheduled for 03:00 GMT on Wednesday. There are expectations for a further cut in deposit rate and an expansion of the QE asset purchasing facility. However, in recent days there has also been market chatter that the BOJ may be concerned about the sustainability of its current stimulus programme.

• FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting starts later with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively on Wednesday. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China moved higher following on from gains on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. BoE and SNB may have left policy on hold yesterday, but at least the BoE kept the door open to another rate cut and the first rise on Japanese markets in 8 days will also have to do with position in Japan ahead of a long weekend and next week’s Fed and BoJ announcements. Japan is closed for a national holiday Monday and trading volumes were already lower than usual today. Indeed, U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red and already signal an end to yesterday’s move higher. Oil prices are also down on the day and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 43.55. Today’s European calendar is very quiet, with only French wages, Italian trade and Eurozone labour cost data.

FX Update: The dollar majors are near net unchanged after a quiet pre-Europe session in Asia. China, Honk Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia have all been closed for public holidays today, while Japan will be off on Monday. The holidays and the proximity of next week’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions have been keeping participants on the sidelines. There was some movement, most notably USD-JPY, which logged a three-day low at 101.73 before recouping back above 102.00. The pair has been trading sensitively to relative expectations of Fed and BoJ policy into next week’s dual policy meetings of the two. A flood of weak data out of the U.S. yesterday, including sub-forecast readings in retail sales and industrial output, and flat PPI, saw prospects for a Fed rate hike next week whittle further (down to a 49.7% probability on Thursday, from 58.5% a week earlier, according to Bloomberg), which saw the 2-year T-note yield fall nearly 3 bp to 0.73%. Elsewhere, EUR-USD continued to ply a narrow range in the mid 1.12s. AUD-USD inched out a three-day high of 0.7527, reflecting both recent outperformance in the domestic stock market and rising yields.

US Data Deluge: Yesterday’s US reports proved disappointing overall, led by weak August retail sales figures after modest downward revisions that trimmed our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% from 2.5%, though we still assume is a Q2 growth boost to 1.5% from 1.1%. The July business inventory data were stronger than expected and initial claims remained tight in the Labor Day week at 260k, hence providing some good news on the day, and the mining data within the August industrial production report revealed a fourth consecutive monthly rise that suggests a bottom for that embattled sector, despite the 0.4% headline IP drop. Yet, the Empire State and Philly Fed reports were weaker than expected which suggests that the inventory headwind continues with gusto, and we saw weakness in the August PPI report. A narrowing in the Q2 current account defict rounded out a massive data-blast that largely negated any chance of a policy tightening at next week’s FOMC meeting.

BoE and SNB on Hold: BoE to Buy Overseas Corporate Bonds and no real surprises from BoE and SNB. Both central banks keeping policy on hold. Unlike Draghi, the BoE may have sounded somewhat less pessimistic about the U.K.’s growth outlook post Brexit, but it still left the door open to another rate cut, depending on data. At the same time, the new corporate bond purchase program has yet to start and this week’s publication on the list of eligible assets has caused some stir, as it also includes overseas companies as long as they make a “material contribution to the U.K. economy.”

Main Macro Events Today        

• US CPI – August CPI is out today and expectations are to see a 0.1% (median 0.1%) headline increase with the core up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows July data which had the headline unchanged and the core up 0.1% on the month. The August PPI was released yesterday and featured a flat headline with a 0.1% core increase for the month.

•  US Michigan Consumer Sentiment –  The first release on September Michigan Sentiment is out later and expectations are for the headline to climb to 90.5 (median 90.5) to cap the recent string of declines that had the headline falling to 89.8 in August from 90.0 in July and 93.5 in June. The already released IBD/TIPP Poll for the month fell to 46.7 from 48.4 in August and expectations are that the Consumer Confidence headline to fall to 98.0 from 101.1 in August.

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down. The Hang Seng surged after China allowed insurance companies to invest in Hong Kong’s stock markets via an exchange link with Shanghai. But Chinese CPI figures missed expectations at only 1.3%.   Japanese markets also managed slight gains, after yesterday’s dip, amid ongoing hopes that the BoJ will buy exchange-traded funds, although a stronger Yen and the North Korea nuclear test limited gains. U.S. and U.K. stock futures meanwhile are in the red and oil prices are down on the day, although the front end WTI future is still holding above USD 47 per barrel. Bund and Gilt futures headed south yesterday after Draghi not only left rates on hold, but also failed to deliver a particularly dovish press conference, which added to the raft of positive U.K. releases and dampened hopes of further central bank action in Europe, although the FTSE and Eurozone peripheral stock markets still managed to close with gains. Bund futures already managed to more slightly up from lows in after hour trade, but with markets still digesting Draghi market moves may be limited ahead of the weekend. The European calendar has trade data from Germany (see below) and the U.K., which is unlikely to change the overall outlook much. The U.K. also has Construction output and the BoE inflation expectations survey. Eurozone finance ministers meet in Bratislava with Greece high on the agenda.

German trade surplus narrows as exports slip. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 19.4 bln in July, down from EUR 21.4 bln in the previous month, with the decline reflecting a -2.4% m/m drop in exports that far outstripped to -0.7% m/m decline in imports. Data over the summer can be volatile, as school holidays in the states are staggered and the timing changes each year, which makes adjusting for seasonal variations difficult, as the timing of the holidays in the industrial centres can impact data. Still taken together with the dip in confidence numbers the data will add to concern that the manufacturing sector in particular is feeling the impact from the Brexit scenario and the stronger EUR.

Draghi Takes Off Dovish Hat – For Now: The ECB not only left policy on hold, but Draghi also refrained from an overtly dovish press conference. The central bank head left the door to further easing open, but it seems nothing is in the pipeline or has been discussed, aside from measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the QE program, which will have to face the question of how to get around the fact that at least in some countries the ECB will be running into supply constraints. Meanwhile the message to politicians to get their act together and implement urgently necessary growth enhancing structural reforms are getting louder. The euro has seen little follow through activity following the ECB’s announcement yesterday. The common currency was trading at modestly lower levels against the dollar in early European trade versus levels prevailing ahead of yesterday’s announcement, but firmer against the yen and the sterling.

Main Macro Events Today        

• UK Consumer Inflation Expectations & Trade Balance –  Last time the UK Consumer inflation expectations figure was 2%, little change is expected today (no pun intended).  The UK Trade balance is expected to improve from -12.4 billion GBP to -11.4 billion GBP.

• CAD Employment Change – No change is expected in the Unemployment Rate (6.9%) with a net increase in employment of 16,000.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down (Nikkei closed below 17,000 down 0.32%) The Hang Seng is managing slight gains and mainland Chinese markets are narrowly mixed as volumes remain subdued amid official pressure on government backed funds to keep volatility down and limit sell offs. In Japan markets are assessing the prospects for further easing after better than expected GDP numbers. U.S. stock futures are higher after a narrowly mixed closed yesterday and FTSE 100 futures are also moving up. European stock markets already managed gains yesterday, led by Eurozone peripherals as markets hope for further easing from Draghi following weak German data this week. Eurozone yields fell going into the meeting and Bund futures are likely to remain supported ahead of Draghi, although the event risk is yet another disappointment if the ECB focuses mainly on dovish rhetoric and doesn’t rock the boat with extensive easing measures. Oil prices are higher and the front end WTI future is trading above USD 46 per barrel. Already released, the U.K. RICS house price balance came in much higher than anticipated and French non-farm payrolls were confirmed at 0.2%. The data calendar still has German labour cost data for Q2 ahead of tomorrow’s trade numbers.

BOE Governor Carney:  The BOE action helped to reduce recession risk. The BoE governor said the U.K. recession risk has receded due to BoE actions, which clearly is a defence of the central bank’s easing package from August, but could also be seen as a sign that the additional rate cut that most MPC members still felt might be necessary back in August may not be necessary. Especially after this months round of better than expected confidence data. Still, Carney stressed that the BoE still has options for further easing if necessary, including another rate hike. Meanwhile, BoE officials sounded pretty unanimous in their rejection of Helicopter money, with Carney saying that he personally has ruled out helicopter money, Cunliffe saying it is “outside” his thinking and Vlieghe adding that such a step would not be a decision to the MPC as its a fiscal operation.  However, quote of the day was Carney being “absolutely serene” about comments made by the central bank in the build-up to the Brexit vote. Cable closed the day at 1.3436 and currently trades down at 1.3330.

US JOLTS: The report showed job openings surged 228k to 5,871k in July, a new record high, following June’s 129 rebound to 5,643k (revised up from 5,624k). The rate edged up too, to 3.9% from 3.8%. Hirings increased 55k to 5,227k after the prior 125k jump to 5,227k (revised higher from 5,131k). The hire rate was steady at 3.6%. Quitters inched up 1k to 2,980k following the 37k June rise to 2,980k (revised up from 2,909k). The rate was unchanged at 2.1% (June revised up 2.0%). Fed Chair Yellen is a fan of the JOLTS report, and in particular the quit numbers, and though this report was better than expected, it is too backward looking to have much effect on the September rate decision, especially in the face of weaker, more contemporaneous numbers.

Fedspeak: Hawkish Richmond Fed’s Lacker argues for a September hike for which the “case is strong,” he said in House testimony. He noted that the Fed needs to make up ground on interest rates. This follows like-minded remarks from hawkish dissenter George of the KC Fed earlier, who also testified and said that the US is at or near full employment. It would be a surprise if either didn’t reiterate their hawkish views.

Main Macro Events Today        

• ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference  –  11:45 GMT & from 12:30 GMT – Not an easy meeting for the ECB, with mixed confidence indicators since the Brexit referendum, ongoing uncertainty about the future relationship between the U.K. and the EU, but also the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed rate path. This week’s round of disappointing German data will have been too late for the updated set of staff projections, but will only add to the arguments of the doves. At the same time, however, the ECB doesn’t have many options left if it doesn’t want to rock the boat. So for now the most likely scenario is dovish talk from Draghi and at the very best an extension of the time frame for QE maybe coupled with some minor tweaks to the QE program, including a possible removal of the deposit rate as the lower limit for purchases, which would help to address the increasing shortage of bonds, but at the same time push short term rates even lower. What is certain is that Draghi and Co will once again highlight the need for structural reforms and help from politicians in the struggle to boost Eurozone growth. Officials have been trying to limit expectations ahead of today’s meeting, but yields still fell and stocks moved higher in anticipation of further easing, so the event risk is a correction on both bond and stock markets, at least initially.

• US Jobless Claims – 12:30 GMT – Initial Claims are expected to rise a little to 265K from 263k and Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2.153 million from 2.159 million.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with the ASX a notable exception as the Aussie strengthened following Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates steady. Oil prices are higher on the day and the front end WTI future climbed further above USD 45 per barrel, but gains are capped by concerns that stocks indices may be approaching overbought levels. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, despite the fact that U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected with the like-for-like reading down -0.9% y/y, against expectations for another marked rise. German factory orders disappointed and previous month revised down (see below) – EURUSD overnight lows 1.1140 currently 1.1150. The Eurozone also has the detailed reading of Q2 GDP, and elsewhere Switzerland releases Q2 GDP and August inflation data.

FX Summary: The dollar and euro traded softer against most other currencies, with markets taking Friday’s payrolls report as lowering the odds for the Fed to hike rates at its FOMC meeting later this month, while data left prospects for unchanged policy with dovish guidance at the ECB’s meeting this week. USD-JPY declined by over 0.5% to the 103s and EUR-JPY fell by 0.7%. Cable popped higher on the back of a record month-to-month rebound in the UK’s August services PMI, but gains failed to sustain as such an outcome had been well flagged by the stellar rebounds already seen in last week’s construction and manufacturing PMI reports. USD-CAD extended Friday’s post-U.S. jobs losses, with the Canadian dollar rallying concomitantly with oil prices. News that Russia and Saudi Arabia had signed an agreement to set up a “working group” to think of ways to curtail crude market volatility boosted crude. (see below)

Oil Update: Oil prices sprang higher on news of a Saudi-Russia agreement, signed on the sidelines of the G20 meetings, to set up a “working group” to discuss ideas about how to minimise market volatility. WTI crude was up nearly 5% at the $46.50 intraday peak, overnight it traded to $44.75 before recovering to $45.30.  A lack of specifics about how output might be restricted apparently led to the rally fizzing out, and prices retreating. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Falih, said that that Iranian production has now reached pre-sanctions levels, suggesting that there is scope for Tehran to agree to a production freeze.  The global supply glut remains and there will have to be some significant compromise in Algiers if the $50 is to be recovered.

German July manufacturing orders rose 0.2%: This was less than hoped and even with June revised marginally higher to -0.3% m/m from -0.4% m/m, the annual rate remained stuck in negative territory. Still, the -0.7% y/y reading is a clear improvement from the -3.0% y/y in the previous month, although looking at the dip in the manufacturing PMI, and the sharp downward revision to the German services PMI growth projections going ahead will have to be revised again and the weaker orders data will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB. Interestingly though, the breakdown showed a marked rebound in foreign orders inflow, which suggests Brexit and the weaker Pound are not to blame. Domestic orders meanwhile dropped -3.0%.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Non-Manufacturing PMI – 14:00 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 55.7 from 55.5. Last July’s spike to 59.6 set a new post-recession high. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed. The August Philly Fed index rose to 2.0 from -2.9, but the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 47.2 from 51.3.

•  NZD GDT Price Index – The fortnightly Global Dairy Trade Index is published and with a strong recovery last time to 12.7% sparking a rally in the NZD, today’s data will be followed closely.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, (Nikkei closed flat at 16, 925) U.S. stock futures little changed and U.K. futures slightly higher. Oil prices meanwhile have lifted off lows, but remain firmly below USD 44 per barrel having traded to $43.02 yesterday. Investors are looking ahead to key U.S. jobs data during the European afternoon session, which are hoped to shed some light on the timing of a possible rate hike, although our forecast for a 185k headline increase (median (189k), close to the 3-month average of 190k, might not make a clear case for a September rate hike. The European calendar has Eurozone PPI data for July, as well as the U.K. August Construction PPI, Spanish unemployment numbers and the final reading of Italian Q2 GDP.

US Data Reports: The U.S. ISM drop to a 7-month low of 49.4 from 52.6 in July and a 16-month high of 53.2 in June reversed much of the 8-month climb from the 48.0 expansion-low in December. The ISM sits well below the 59.9 cycle-high in February of 2011, as all the sentiment measures have remained depressed since the oil price plunge starting in Q3 of 2014. U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.0 in the final August reading, versus July’s 52.9, and from the August preliminary print of 52.1. It was at 53.0 a year ago. New orders declined to 52.7 from July’s 54.2, reflecting a slower pace of growth. That led to a weaker pace of hiring, and resulted in a drop in employment to the lowest level since April.

Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Lorretta Mester said the low level of rates is not an effective solution to problems in the labor market, noting that she didn’t share the convictions of protestors at Jackson Hole last week who lobbied for the Fed to resolve racial income and employment gaps through extending low rate policy. She views these as “longer-run issues.” Otherwise, she made no other references to policy timing. She also said the US is basically at full employment and the case for gradual rate increases is pretty compelling, though the Fed is not behind the curve. She also supports including “confidence bands” around the Fed’s forecasts. Note she is a voter this year and there is nothing particularly new or changed in her view.

Waiting for Draghi: The summer is coming to an end and the ECB will have the questionable honour of kicking off this month’s round of central bank meetings. For Draghi the key question is whether the mixed data releases and the still low inflation numbers justify further action or mainly mean that the ECB won’t follow the Fed in its path to a policy normalisation. Unfortunately, the impact of currency moves on the growth and inflation outlook, which in turn also hinge on central bank decisions both in the U.S. and the U.K. will make it difficult for Draghi, who won’t have the benefit of hindsight and has to make his bid ahead of Yellen and Carney.

Main Macro Events Today        

• UK Construction PMI – 08:30 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 46.6 from 45.9.

• US NonFarm Payrolls – 12:30 GMT – Bloomberg, CNBC, and Thomson Reuters Surveys have a consensus for 180k news jobs – There are very wide estimates this month ranging from +125k from PNC Financial to +255k from Societe Generale. The Unemployment Rate is expected to fall to 4.8% and the Average Hourly Earnings is also expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.3%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.