FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian shares were very mixed with the Japanese Nikkei 225 leading the way closing down -1.43% (237.25) at 16, 383 as the YEN strengthened; USDJPY to 104.41. Conversely the Hang Seng and mainland China posted robust gains. Oil also continued its weakness and added to losses, bottoming so far at $43.09, down 2.3%, or $1.10/bbl and below the 100 DMA. The EIA reported gasoline inventories well above average levels for this time of year, while overall U.S. crude stockpiles are near record highs as well. Baker-Hughes has reported an increase in functioning U.S. oil wells in seven of the past eight reporting weeks, weighing on crude prices, as U.S. production may again be in the process of ramping up production. Gold also weakened to the key 1320 level

Mixed messages from Japan: late yesterday there was expectation that the stimulus package expected on Friday was going to be significant; Japan stimulus package will double planned spending to JPY6 tln, according to sources citing the Nikkei News. The Nikkei website is also featuring a story that the Japanese government will make $1.88 bln in low-interest dollar funding available to domestic banks for overseas investment projects involving Japanese companies. Then later today Mr Aso the Finance Minister clearly stated that policy measures were the responsibility of the BOJ and that no decision had been taken on the size of the stimulus package. The USDJPY gyrated from over 105.90 to the current low of 104.40.

US Market Reports: U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index surged to -1.3 in July, much better than expected, after inching up to -18.3 in June from -20.8 in May. It’s the highest reading since December 2014. The index was as low as -34.6 in January, which was the worst since the -37.5 in April 2009 and compares to the record low of 59.5 in February 2009. The region has been hit hard by the oil sector recession, but this report and other measures suggest the stability in oil is helping the region recover, albeit slowly. Meanwhile, the components were mixed. The July employment index improved to -2.6 from June’s post-recession low of -11.5, but remains in negative (contractionary) territory, where it’s been all year. Wages faltered to 10.5 from 21.6. New orders rose to -8.0 from -14.2. Prices paid fell to 7.6 from 12.6, with prices received at -5.7 from -5.2. The 6-month outlook index climbed to 18.4 from 2.6, with employment at 18.8 from 12.2.

UK Business confidence falls steeply: A sharp dive in UK business confidence seen in the July UK CBI industrial trends survey, with the optimism component falling to a reading of -47 from -5 at the previous measure in April. This was the sharpest drop in business spirits since the dog days of 2009. The headline total orders figure fell to -4 from -1, while export orders dove to -22 from -14. The CBI said that there are signs of improving exports in light of the 10%-plus decline in the pound over the last month, but conceded that “it’s clear that a cloud of uncertainty is hovering over industry, post-Brexit. We see this in weak expectations for new orders, a sharp fall in optimism and a scaling back of investment plans.” Sterling took a knock on the report, though has so far remained well within the range seen on Friday in the cases against the G3 currencies.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Consumer Confidence – 98.0 last time expectations are for a fall to 95.7 today. The US consumer confidence key feel good factor for market sentiment and one factor little impacted by the Brexit effect.

• US New Home Sales – Expectations are for a rise to 557,000 from 551,000 last time a rise of 1.1% from a fall of -6.0% last time. A steady rise and another key factor in the health of the US economy.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly lower, led by a more than 1% decline in Japanese bourses, after BoJ’s Kuroda dampened hopes for “helicopter money”, saying that there is currently “no need and possibility for helicopter money”. The reaction highlights how much markets are still relying on stimulus hopes and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south, pointing to opening losses on European markets, which would give Bund and Gilt futures the chance to recover from yesterday’s dip. Bunds underperformed yesterday as Draghi re-affirmed the wait and see stance and today’s PMI readings from Europe and the U.K. will be watched carefully amid signs of a growing split between financial market and real sector assessments of the impact of the Brexit impact. The ECB also publishes the results of its survey of professional forecasters.

ECB Wait and See Until September: The ECB didn’t spring any major surprise today, with Draghi effectively confirming the central bank’s wait and see stance at least for now. Uncertainty has clearly risen but so far seems to affect financial markets much more than the real sector and central bankers – not just in the Eurozone – want to have more time to assess the real impact of the Brexit vote. An overreaction now may lay the ground for difficult corrections now, but at the same time Draghi left the door to a policy review in September wide open and was eager to stress that the central bank is not just willing, but also able to act again if necessary. The ECB did the expected today and left policy unchanged. The Brexit referendum turned out to be not quite the Lehman moment many had feared and after the initial turbulence stock markets have settled down again and the DAX is back above the psychologically important 10000 mark, while Eurozone spreads have stabilised. And while central banks on both sides of the channel stepped in to ensure that there were no liquidity shortages, especially at the ECB the prevailing feeling seems to be that more time is needed to assess the longer term implications of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU.

US Data Reports: Today’s U.S. reports revealed a July headline Philly Fed drop to -2.9, but with big component gains for all but prices that left a stronger than expected report, alongside a 1k drop in initial claims to 253k in the BLS survey week that leaves a tight path for claims through the auto retooling period. The mix suggests upside risk for our 180k July payroll estimate. We also saw a 1.1% June existing home sales rise to a 5.57 mln new cycle-high that left a 9.9% four-month sales bounce though the important spring months, alongside a 16.8% four-month median price rise to a new all-time high of $247,700, and a 0.3% June leading indicators bounce that leaves a big Q2 climb in this gauge alongside the assumed bounce in GDP growth to 2.7% in Q2 from 1.1% in Q1.

US VIX equity volatility vaulted nearly 9% higher to the 12.79 highs as stocks finally caved in and declined after successive gains of late. Intel slumped over 4% and risk aversion popped up after the terror arrests in Brazil. That saw the yen, gold and Treasuries catch a bid at the expense of stocks and help reverse the VIX, which hit a trend low of 11.40 yesterday, just ahead of year lows of 10.88. The VIX 200-day moving average back up near 17.34 may provide a handy near-term target for those who don’t believe complacency is a great hedge ahead of partisanship and electioneering this fall. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has stalled under its 2,175 all-time high after surging from Brexit lows of 1,991 on June 27, with its 200-day m.a. way down at 2,036.3.

Main Macro Events Today

• Euro Area, UK and US all publish  PMI Today’s release of preliminary PMI readings marks the first major real sector survey since the Brexit vote and expectations are for a marked dip in confidence. We are looking for a decline in the manufacturing reading to 52.2 (med 52.0) and a dip in the services number to 52.3 (med same) from 52.8. There is some chance of an upside surprise after French national confidence numbers yesterday unexpectedly improved and Draghi also highlighted yesterday that there seems to be a marked disparity between financial sector assessments of the Brexit vote and economist estimates and real sector views.

• CAD Retail Sales & CPI  We expect today’s CPI release to reveal a 0.2% m/m gain in June CPI (median +0.1%)on a not seasonally adjusted basis following the 0.4% increase in May as higher gasoline prices provide another boost. CPI is projected to expand at a 1.5% y/y growth rate in June (median +1.3%), matching the 1.5% pace in May. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI index (CPI-X) is anticipated to slip 0.1% m/m in June, in line with the moves seen in recent months of June, after the 0.3% gain in May. The CPI-X should slow to a 2.0% y/y pace in June (median same at +0.2%) from 2.1%. In last week’s announcement, the BoC judged that risks to the inflation profile are balanced. This report will not challenge that view.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher overnight, as Yen weakened and as Japan’s Abe is reportedly considering stimulus worth 20 trillion yen, almost double the previous plan, after the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU. U.K. stock futures meanwhile are heading south and U.S. stock futures are also mostly in the red. Mixed leads then for European markets, which will likely be cautious ahead of the ECB meeting today. We expect Draghi to stick to the wait and see stance for now, even if the changed growth and inflation outlook may force the ECB to tweak the QE program again in September, when the next set of forecasts are due. The calendar has French business confidence as well as production data and U.K. retail sales.

RBA Expected to Ease Policy in August: The Reserve Bank of Australia left the door wide open for another rate cut in August if the Q2 CPI report reveals tepid price gains or another quarter of outright price declines. Recall that a drop in Q1 CPI triggered an unexpected rate cut in May. With the pace of GDP growth expected to moderate in Q2 while the global growth outlook remains uncertain, evidence of persistent disinflationary pressures should trigger another rate cut.

US Market Reports: U.S. equities extended gains to fresh highs in the wake of the latest earnings surprises from Morgan Stanley and Microsoft, gathering steam again after their initial pullback from opening gains. Some risk barometers are switching to overdrive, with USD-JPY marked session highs of 106.80 and the VIX equity volatility index down 3.2% to 11.59 (11.40 lows) with an eye on year lows of 10.88 on August of last year. Risk proxy gold, has also traded down to $1,313 overnight and is struggling to clear $1,320.

Reuters poll: 60% probability of recession in UK over the coming year as a consequence of the activity-disrupting uncertainty thrown up by the vote to leave the EU. The median view is for 0.0% GDP in Q3 and -0.1% in Q4. For 2016 as a whole, growth is seen at 1.4%, down from 1.9% at the previous (pre-Brexit) survey, and for 2017 growth is seen at 0.6%, hacked from 2.1% previously. The BoE is expected to cut the repo rate to 0.25% at the August MPC meeting, down from 0.50%, with a minority expecting a cut to zero. The consensus view is for the repo rate to then remain unchanged at 0.25% until the end of 2018 (at the previous poll in early June the view was for the repo rate to be at 1.25% by the end of 2018). The Old Lady is also expected to dust off the QE program next month, which has been on hold since 2012, and expand bond purchases by another GBP 80 bln, adding to the GBP 375 bln already bought.

Main Macro Events Today        

• ECB Preview  The ECB is likely to maintain the wait and see stance at today’s council meeting, although Draghi is likely to keep the door to further measures wide open. The Brexit vote wasn’t quite the Lehman moment some had feared, but there will be long term implications for the growth and inflation outlook though is clear but for now the ECB is likely to keep its powder dry as the BoE already did at its July meeting. For Draghi the next important date is the September set of updated forecasts and staff projections, which are likely to bring downward revision to growth projections and we expect the ECB to make some changes to its monetary policy then, although it is unlikely to be more than some tweaking of the QE program. Rate Announcement – 11:45 GMT  Press Conference 45 minutes later at 12:30.

• UK Retail Sales  Expectations are for a fall to -0.6% from 1.0% for Retails sales ex- fuel. (MoM). YoY sales are expected to drop to 5% from 6%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan underperforming and closing down for the first time in seven days, as the strengthening Yen weighed on exporters and markets take a breather after recent gains. U.S. stock futures are also down, but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, as a weaker currency increases appetite from foreign investors. The ECB will likely follow the BoE’s example and take a wait and see stance for now at tomorrow’s meeting but falling yields may force the central bank to tweak the QE program again in September. Today’s calendar has German PPI at the start of the session, as well as U.K. labour market data for June, which will give a picture of the momentum in jobs markets ahead of the referendum. The Eurozone has BoP and current account data as well as consumer confidence in the afternoon.

IMF cut its global growth estimate to 3.1% in 2016 from 3.2% previously, in its quarterly World Economic Outlook update, on the back of Brexit uncertainties and fallout. It also lowered its 2017 forecast to 3.4% from 3.5%. Before Brexit, the Fund had planned on boosting its estimates. Growth could be as soft as 2.8% under a severe Brexit scenario. The Fund maintained its forecasts for 2.2% U.S. growth, and 1.6% for the Euro area. China was bumped up to 6.6% from 6.5%. Japan was knocked to 0.3% from 0.5% due to the firmer yen.

IMF trimmed its UK growth forecast: 2016 to 1.7% and 1.3% for 2017, nearly one percentage point below its previous projection but still much more optimistic than most. The IMF is assuming “limited” repercussions from exiting the EU, specifically that the UK will strike up a Norway-like deal, which grants unfettered access to the single market but at the price of maintaining open borders and payment of EU fees, but without any influence. Given what we know about the stance of the UK government and what Leave voters voted for, it has to be said that this looks unlikely at the moment, although it’s conceivable there could be backtracking as the economic consequences of the prevailing uncertainty (recession by divestiture) become more apparent. The European Commission, by contrast, revised its UK GDP forecast to -0.3% y/y for this year, and this in a “mild” Brexit scenario, and to -0.9% y/y next year, and -2.6% y/y in the case of a “severe” Brexit scenario.

US Market Reports: A lean data calendar may have contributed to a brief hiccup on rates Tuesday, but it wasn’t sustained as stocks drifted lower from recent historical highs. On the one hand, housing starts surged 4.8% in June, but on the other hand, this was from downwardly revised levels on May and April. The IMF cut global growth forecasts, which curbed enthusiasm for stocks on the margin, while nerves began to fray in Europe and Turkey again. WSJ Fedwatcher Hilsenrath continued to view September as the most likely month for the next Fed hike, though such a move as early as next week remains out of the question.

Main Macro Events Today        

• UK Earnings and Jobs Numbers  – 08:30 GMT  – UK Average earnings including Bonus are expected to rise to 2.3% from 2.0% and Claimant count for June expected to rise by 4,000 from a decline of 400 last month. The unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 5%.

• US Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 GMT – Last week’s  draw down of 2.55 mln barrels was greater than expected and added to pressure on the oil price, this week is also expected to be a draw down but reduced to 2.23 mln barrels.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan outperforming in catch up trade, after yesterday’s holiday. Other markets are left pondering the global outlook and with oil prices also slightly down and the front end WTI future hovering around 45 USD per barrel, markets remain cautious and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south. The European calendar brings the first major post-Brexit survey in the form of German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to fall back sharply. The U.K. has inflation data for June and the ECB publishes the bank lending survey.

RBA Meeting Minutes: There is a possibility of a further rate cut at the August meeting.  Employment growth has “moderated” with further slack in the labour market.  Housing market very mixed and good growth in non-mining business. However, inflation remains a problem as expectations “remained below average”.  The AUDUSD slipped to 0. 7508 and currently trades at 0.7520.  

US Market Reports: Led by tech, U.S. equities caught a shallow bid before stalling out again, after the $32 bln ARM-Softbank merger caught Wall Street’s attention. The NASDAQ Comp is clearly pacing the move with a gain near 0.6%, followed by the S&P 500 at +0.2% and the Dow largely flat. European equities remained mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.3% and the UK FTSE 100 0.4% higher. Within the Dow, Goldman +1.3%, Apple +1.2%, and Microsoft +0.9% were among leaders, while Caterpillar -1.2%, and Merck -0.9% among the deepest decliners. The VIX equity volatility index is essentially flat near 12.70, loitering in a tight 12.59-13.12 session range ahead of year-lows of 10.88. Risk of politics and activism colliding at the RNC convention may keep investors somewhat cautious for now.

US NAHB The homebuilder sentiment index fell 1 point to 59 in July after rising 2 points to 60 in June (which was a 5 month high). The July reading is slightly above the 58 average for 2016. Declines were across the board. The current single family sales index slipped 1 point too to 63, reversing the 1 point increase to 64 previously. The future sales index dropped back 3 points to 66 after surging 4 points to 69 last month (revised from 70). The index of prospective buyer traffic dipped 1 point to 45 following a 2 point rise to 46 (revised from 47). The data are in line with expectations and won’t have much impact on lethargic markets.

Main Macro Events Today        

• German ZEW  Today’s German ZEW investor confidence reading will be the first major post-Brexit survey and we expect the U.K.’s referendum result, which wrong-footed markets, to drop sharply, with negative effects on confidence dampened only by hopes of ongoing or further stimulus measures by central banks. We are looking for a drop in the ZEW to 11 from 19.2 in June and the risk is to the downside, as a positive number still means that optimists outnumber pessimists. The referendum may not have proved to be the Lehman moment for financial markets many feared, but growth forecasts are being revised down across the board and sentiment will be hit by the uncertainty that is likely to characterise the future relationship between the U.K. and the EU for some years to come.

•  US Housing Starts  June housing starts data is out today and should reveal a 0.5% headline increase to a 1,170k (median 1,168k) pace from 1,164k in May. Permits are seen at 1,155k from 1,136k in May and completions should be 1,010k in June from 1,020k in May. The NAHB was firm in June so there is some upside risk to the release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly higher, with Hong Kong stocks reversing declines after Chinese data which showed better than expected new loan growth in the second quarter and a slightly better overall growth number. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are lower, however, and Bund and Gilt futures will have a chance to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. The BoE’s decision to leave rates steady for now may have been somewhat of a disappointment, but the MPC all but announced further easing for August, so there is room for a correction in yields. The European calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation for June, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.1% y/y. The headline rate is finally out of negative territory again, but still far below the ECB’s target and still leaving the central bank sufficient room to act again if necessary.

Strong Chinese Data: China’s GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, slightly better than expected, matching the 6.7% pace in Q1. Separately, retail sales grew at a 10.6% y/y pace in June from the 10.0% clip in May. Industrial production improved to a 6.2% y/y pace in June from 6.0%. Overall, China’s growth rate stabilized in Q2, contrary to fears the economy would see a pronounced slowdown.  All three key data points were ahead of expectations and has dampened expectations that further stimulus will be required. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, USDJPY spiked over 106, and AUDUSD moved up to 0.7675 before declining to 0.7630.

US Data Reports: All beat estimates with a firm round of June PPI gains and another tight initial claims reading through the July 4th holiday, hence confirming both the resilience in U.S. inflation and the tight labor market conditions signaled by the last round of payroll data with a likely July boost from this year’s diminished auto retooling effect. For PPI, we saw a 0.5% June headline rise with a 0.8% surge on the old SA basis, with a firm 0.4% core price rise. For claims, we expect a 6k drop in next week’s July BLS survey week reading back to the 248k cycle-low, following two consecutive tight readings of 254k that leave a lean 254k average thus far on the month.

Fedspeak: Esther George (Kansas City) current level of rates is too low and faster wage growth suggests the labor market is returning to normal, said the hawkish voter. That said, she will be looking at the impact of Brexit, which will be around for a while, along with the flight to quality when assessing any impact on the U.S. economy, seen likely to be modest. This should not come as a surprise, given her past dissents against accommodative policy. Atlanta Fed’s Dennis Lockhart endorsed a “cautious and patient” approach as appropriate given the uncertainty around Brexit and low inflation. Though “not a Lehman moment,” Brexit could weigh on business investment and create an income headwind for years to come, though he sees little immediate impact on the U.S. Lockhart still forecasts 2% U.S. growth and “very brisk” consumer spending. He sees the Fed meeting its policy objectives on inflation and employment in 2017, while already near full employment. Overall this is in line with his centrist reputation, as caution is balanced by optimism. No rush to hike, then, but perhaps he would be on board by year-end.

 

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Retail Sales – June retail sales data is out on Friday and is expected to show that retail sales remained unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month while sales ex-autos rose 0.3% (median 0.4%). Figures for May had headline retail sales up 0.5% with ex-autos up 0.4%. There is downside risk to the release from weaker vehicle sales for the month and continued sluggish growth in chain store sales.

• US CPI – June CPI is out today and we expect to see a 0.3% headline (median 0.3%) with the core up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows May figures that had the headline up 0.2% and the core up 0.2% as well. The June PPI was up 0.5% on the month while export prices rose by 0.8% and import prices by 0.2%.

• BOE Carney Speech – Speaking in Toronto about climate change and the financial markets.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses continuing to benefit from stimulus hopes, while mainland China saw profit taking amid concerns that the market is overbought. Hang Seng and ASX 200 posted modest gains and U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher. Oil prices are higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 46 per barrel. The focus in Europe will be on the BoE today, which is expected to cut rates by 25 bp today along with dovish guidance, as the bank is eying the fallout from the Brexit vote. The U.K. RICS house price balance, dropped to 10 from 19 highlighting that house prices will be one are that will feel the sting. The European calendar is pretty empty otherwise.

US Data Reports: Fed Beige Book reiterated the economy grew at a “modest” pace over the last six weeks (ending July 1), in line with expectations. The report, prepared by the St Louis Fed, had a slightly more upbeat tone versus recent Beige Books and was generally positive across broad areas of the economy. Consumer spending was generally positive, as was reported in June. However, there are some signs of softening. Labor market conditions remained stable, with employment growth modestly while wage pressures remained modest to moderate. Manufacturing was mixed but generally improved. Real estate continued to strengthen. The natural resources and energy sectors continued weak, however, damping the overall outlook. Price pressures remained slight. Though a tad more optimistic than recent reports, it won’t bring the FOMC off the sidelines at the July 26, 27 policy meeting.

Fedspeak: Kaplan is optimistic on the economy, expecting growth of about 2% after the disappointing 1.1% pace from Q1. Consumer spending should be solid this year, he added. Much of the recent erosion in the labor market he attributes to demographics, with part of it cyclical too. The participation rate is likely to decline further to below 61%, which creates headwinds for GDP, and suggested the only way to bounce back is through immigration. He looks for demand and supply in the oil market to get back into balance in Q1 2017, with prices continuing to firm. He added that the FOMC is very sensitive to the strength of the dollar. Kaplan becomes an FOMC next year.

Main Macro Events Today        

• BOE Rate Announcement Our view matches the strong consensus view for the Old Lady to cut the repo rate by 25bp, which would take it to a record low of 0.25%. This would be the first change in the repo rate since March 2009 and would more than likely be accompanied by dovish guidance, leaving the door open to further cuts and to a restart of the QE programme. The BoE will continue to make cash available for liquidity injections into the banking system.

•  US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of July 9 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 265k (median 265k) after a big dip to 254k in the week of July 2nd. Overall, we expect claims to average 262k in July from 265k in June with nonfarm payrolls adding 180k in July after a 287k bounce in June.

• U.S. PPI June PPI is also out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline increase with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This follows stronger figures in May which had the headline up 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. June trade price data has already been released and had import prices up 0.2% for the month with export prices up 0.8%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery continued in Asia overnight, (Nikkei 225 closed up +0.84% at 16,231) but U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south, suggesting that it is starting to run out of steam. Oil prices are off highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 46 per barrel, Eased uncertainty about the U.K. as the domestic situation seems more settled and preparations for exit talks can start sooner than previously expected, coupled with hopes of further global stimulus is helping to underpin sentiment, but as GDP bounces back Gilt futures and FTSE 100 have been underperforming, even as the more domestically oriented FTSE 250 is doing better. The European data calendar as final June inflation data from France, Spain and Italy, which should hold any surprises. Eurozone production data for May meanwhile is set to show a sizeable contraction, thus confirming again that overall growth slowed down in the second quarter of the year. Events include the BoE’s credit condition survey, as the MPC starts its two day meeting, with tomorrow’s announcement expected to bring a 25 bp rate cut.

US Data Reports: U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings dropped 345k in May to 5,500k, after rising 175k to 5,845k in April (revised from 5,788k). That left the rate at 3.7% from 3.9%. Hirings also declined 49k to 5,036k, a third consecutive monthly drop (hirings have fallen in four of the five months this year). The rate was steady at 3.5%. Quitters also dipped 14k to 2,895k after the 39k decline in April to 2,909k (revised from 2,912k) and the 7k slip in March. The rate was unchanged at 2.0%. The data are old, especially in light of the recent gyrations in employment. The data seem consistent with some of the weakening trend in the job market this year, though it’s not clear if that is more a function of the economy being near full employment, or an indication of a slowing in the overall economy. Note that Yellen is a fan of the quit rate, and looks for increases in that statistic to suggest a strengthening labor market. So the declines there in recent months may be another reason for her increasingly cautious outlook.

Discount Rate Hike preferred: Six Fed banks favored a discount rate hike by 25 basis points the Fed’s discount rate minutes revealed, with the vote taking place just ahead of the last meeting where rates were held steady following the May jobs miss and Brexit anticipation. A quartet of four had already requested a hike previously, including the KC, Richmond, Cleveland and SF Feds, and they were joined by Boston and St. Louis. The rationale: “expected strengthening in economic activity and their expectations for inflation to gradually move toward the 2% objective.” This shouldn’t come as a surprise to the bond market, which is already on a bearish tear anyway.

Fedspeak: Bullard: QE gives the Fed some “ammunition” in the event of another downturn, while his new view on rates is closer to what the market is pricing, with low probability of a rate increase. On productivity, he said the poor education system was not to blame in the 1990s, nor today, which could be at its root a demographic shift as older experienced workers retire. The labor force participation rate is continuing to fall for this reason as well. He said that yield curve flattening is not a sign of slowing growth but more likely a flight to safety after the Brexit vote, said the St. Louis Fed president. Talk of further U.S. stimulus is wrong and Fed calls for a better growth (fiscal) policy have been falling on deaf ears. He forecasts continued slowing in job growth in coming months as a normal development, while the ultimate impact of Brexit on the U.S. may be close to nil. Bullard continues to align himself more closely with swings in market sentiment.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Import & Export Prices  June trade price data is out today and should show import prices up 0.6% (median 0.5%) on the month while export prices grow by 0.3%. This compares to May figures which had import prices up 1.4% and export prices up 1.1%. After a long run of negative figures over the winter the rebound in oil prices is now helping to lift headlines.

• BOC Outlook  We expect no change in the policy rate, with the current 0.50% setting seen as unaltered in today’s announcement. Recent economic data suggest the Bank could inject more caution in its cautiously optimistic outlook. But lofty June housing starts were a timely reminder that the Bank did highlight housing in the May announcement. A repeat of that announcement’s emphasis on strong regional divergences in housing performance would contrast with a more cautious outlook on growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the robust U.S. jobs report for June suggests growth south of the border is chugging along, supportive of the Bank’s scenario for improving domestic growth in the second half.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets in Japan continued to rally, and the Yen weakened as Abe’s election victory cleared the way for more “Abenomics”. Gains in other Asian markets were more modest and while U.S. stock futures are moving higher, FTSE 100 futures are in the red, despite the fact that the BoE is expected to cut rates once again on Thursday. The U.K. may have a new Prime Minister by tomorrow evening and Theresa May, poised to take over from Cameron, could start exit talks earlier than previously thought. So far she hasn’t taken a soft approach and refused to rule out the deportation of EU citizens already working and living in the U.K., which will not go down well in the city. EU finance ministers will meet today and after the Eurogroup yesterday backed the Commission’s recommendations for fines on Spain and Portugal budget overshoots, this is likely to be approved by the Ecofin today. The issue of Italy’s plans to recapitalize Italian banks without bail-ins remains open. The data calendar has German final June inflation at the start of the session, more inflation data from Sweden and Portugal and Irish GDP numbers for Q1. Nothing that would change key central bank outlooks for now. The BoE releases the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee, which was held on June 28, that is after the referendum and may attract more attention than usual if there are more warnings on the possible fallout.

US Data Reports: The stock market got another free pass from prospects of fresh stimulus in Japan following the landslide election of Abe, as investors hoped to collect $200 in “helicopter” money, not go directly to jail or at least get some free parking near historic highs. News that Japan machinery orders plunged and former Fed chief Bernanke was paying a visit to BoJ buddies fueled that speculation and related asset rebalancing. This took some starch out of bonds, gold and the yen, while WTI crude also eased 1%, back under $45. S&P 500, hit fresh record highs at 2,143, The NASDAQ cleared 5,000, and the Dow marked a session high 18,283.

Brexit Aftermath: The uncertainty surrounding the new UK Prime Minister evaporated yesterday as Theresa May became the only candidate, following the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom. David Cameron will tender his resignation to the Queen on Wednesday after chairing his last Cabinet meeting today. Brexit means Brexit, May has said. The GBP and the FTSE both rallied yesterday with some of the uncertainty over the government, post-Brexit, now out of the way. GBPUSD currently trades significantly north of 1.3000 at 1.3074.

Fedspeak: The Fed’s Esther George welcomed the good news from Friday’s jobs report and said it shows the resilience of the economy. She said consumers are continuing to spend, while household confidence is up. However, business investment has been relatively weak, though it’s been holding up ok outside of the energy and manufacturing sectors. She added that the strong dollar and weaker global growth may hurt exports. Keeping rates too low carries risks, reminded the long-time Fed hawk (and 2016 voter), and said the current level of Fed policy is too soft, in her opinion. There are limits to what monetary policy can achieve, but it’s getting closer to achieving its goals. Core inflation has been firming and the pace of job creation has been noteworthy. But demand for middle-skilled workers has dropped sharply and the recovery has not been evenly spread across the workforce. She thinks that gradual rate increase will help the FOMC achieve its goals. Though she’s one of the more hawkish on the FOMC, her comments don’t suggest she’ll push for a rate hike as soon as the July 26, 27 FOMC meeting due to Brexit fallout, but she is likely to argue for a hike at the September 20, 21 meeting if the markets are stable and Brexit fears have diminished.

Main Macro Events Today        

• BOE Governor Carney Speaks –  Testifies before the Treasury Select Committee about the Bank of England Financial Stability Report. Unlikely to reveal anything particularly new ahead of Thursdays MPC meeting announcement.

• JOLTS Job Openings – This data point is a particular favourite FED Chair Mrs. Yellen so will have added interest today in particular following the strong NFP data on Friday. Last month there were 5.79m job openings posted with expectations that his month the number will be slightly lower at 5.74m.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly lower, following on from a weak close on Wall Street as a slump in oil prices in the wake of the EIA inventory report hit confidence. Prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 46 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures signal further pressure on equity markets. This should see Bund and Gilt futures recover some of yesterday’s losses going into today’s U.S. jobs report where we expect a bounce in payroll growth to between 160k and 210K (median 178K).  Brexit and Italian bank problems remain the focus in Europe. U.K. consumer confidence plunged sharply following the Brexit referendum, according to GfK data, which saw the core index plunging to -90 in a survey conducted June 30-July 5, from -1 ahead of the referendum. Still to come Germany and the U.K. publish trade data for May and France has production numbers.

US Data Reports: Signaled a tightening labor market as we approach today’s jobs report where we expect a bounce in payroll growth. We saw a 16k initial claims drop to a lean 254k in the first week of July that sits barely above the 42-year low of 248k from the April BLS survey week, and we expect a similarly lean July BLS survey week reading after an assumed bounce next week to 265k, given our read of the auto retooling distortions. We also saw a firm 172k June ADP rise, even though these figures didn’t benefit from the 35k Verizon strike reversal that will lift payrolls, and the as-reported ADP figures have run 18k per month weaker than private payrolls since 2012.

Brexit Aftermath: Think tank NIESR said UK GDP went negative in June after stagnating in May, though a strong April carried an overall estimated growth of +0.6% in Q2. The group stated that “when April drops out of the three-month calculation we should see a quick deterioration of growth, especially if the estimated contraction in June persists or accelerates in July or beyond.” All the signs suggest that activity is diminishing at an accelerated rate since the June 23 referendum. Timely surveys by YouGov CEBR found both business and consumer confidence have dropped sharply since the Brexit vote. There have been bright spots, however, with exporters such as Burberry, a high-end fashion retailer, likely to benefit from the weaker pound, while a trade deal with India may happen within a year (a deal between the EU and India has been held for years by the former’s concerns about wine and car trade). The good news stories so far don’t look likely to offset the possibility that the UK ends up with a net worse trade deal with the EU.

Canada’s Ivey PMI improved: It registered 51.7 in June up from 49.4 in May. The prices index fell to 59.7 in June from 63.1. The pull-back in May left the Ivey at the weakest level of the year, and was below the most recent foray into contractionary (sub-50) territory in December of 2015 that saw the index fall to 49.9. The decline in May was not shocking given the Fort McMurray fires during the month, and the concerns about the outlook for the region and the impact of stopped oil production on the national economy. The move back above 50 in June is consistent with some improvement in activity during the month as a whole, although wildfire disruptions persisted early in the month.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Nonfarm payrolls   June employment data is out today and could reveal a possible 210k (median 178k) headline after last months disappointing 38k and only 123k in April. We expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.7% for a second month. The balance of risk is firmly to the upside.

• Japan’s policy Troika The MoF, FSA and BoJ will meet today to discuss the financial markets post-Brexit and concurrent strength of the yen that could relegate Japan’s economy back into recession, according to a Reuters report. Former Fed Chairman Bernanke will be meeting next week with PM Abe and BoJ’s Kuroda, no doubt to discuss helicopter maintenance and NIRP: “The meetings underscore the concern government officials have about damage that the recent market rout, triggered by the Brexit vote, could inflict on Japan’s fragile economic recovery. The last time they met was on June 25, shortly after Britain voted to leave the European Union, a decision that jolted financial markets and boosted investors’ demand for the safe-haven yen JPY. Bernanke is expected to discuss Brexit and the BOJ’s negative interest rate policy with Abe and Kuroda, the official said. The BOJ governor has repeatedly denied that the BOJ would adopt such a policy (helicopter money), however, saying it is as an ‘impossible’ option under current law separating the government’s role in fiscal policy from the BOJ’s in monetary policy.”

• Canada Employment  We expect employment, also due today, to rise 10.0k in June after the 13.8k gain in May. May saw a strong boost from Census hiring (public admin +19.4k), which should unwind in June. And the wildfires persisted into June, which could trim resource and related jobs. But the May report had a surprisingly firm tone even when the temporary factors are accounted for, suggesting the job market was resilient, which could have carried into June. We expect the unemployment rate to tick higher to 7.0% in June from 6.9% in April that came on the heels of back to back 7.1% readings in March and April. Hours worked are expected to nudge 0.1% higher (m/m) in June after the 0.2% gain in May.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.