USDJPY, Daily
USDJPY has rallied from 121.85 – 122.08 support identified in one of the recent Live Analysis Webinars. Those attending the webinar had an excellent opportunity pick up a decent gain. Now the pair is trading just below a horizontal resistance at 123.64 and at the upper end of a bullish wedge. The next important resistance level lies at 124.44.
Please, remember that due to US holiday tomorrow, the Non Farm Payroll data is released today and as per usual is likely to increase volatility after release. In general Forex market participants have remained largely noncommittal into the US payrolls report and Sunday’s referendum in Greece.
A big conundrum is that Greek PM Tsipras is seeing the vote as a chance to get a better deal with creditors, but Eurozone officials see it as a vote on Eurozone membership. S&P Ratings is estimating 60% odds of Grexit. Elsewhere, USDJPY lifted to a four-day peak of 123.59, and subsequent dips have remained shallow. AUDUSD logged a three-day low at 0.7598, though the Aussie saw fresh highs against the underperforming NZD, which has been affected by fresh RBNZ rate cut calls from market economists and NZ milk production downgrades. USDCAD logged an 11-week peak at 1.2663.
US Payroll Expectations:
- June nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 230k, with a 210k private payroll gain.
- Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind.
- Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes.
- The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 5.4% from 5.5% in May.
- The workweek is expected to hold at 34.5 for a fourth month.
- Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.1% which would leave a 2.2% y/y rise.
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst
Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.
Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.
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