Author: Forex Analysis

Macro Events & News for 05.11.2016

Forex Analysis
2016-05-11_08-52-45

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: The global uptick in stock markets continued overnight in Asia although gains in Japan, China and Australia are more muted and the Hang Seng is down, as are U.S. and U.K. stock futures. Oil prices are also slightly lower with the front end WTI future trading in a narrow range below USD 45 per barrel. Investors in Japan will have to weigh the stronger yen, against the wealth of earnings reports this week. In Europe, Vivendi, E.ON and Deutsche Post report results, the UK releases industrial production data and there is ECB speak from Nowotny as well as a German Schatz sale.

Mixed Japanese data: Japan’s leading index decreased less-than-expected in March but to the lowest level in forty months, preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed earlier. The leading index that reflects the future economic activity, fell to 98.4 in March from 98.9 in February. Expectations were for the index to drop to 96.4. The latest reading was the weakest since November 2012, when it marked 97.6. At the same time, the coincident index that indicates the current economic activity rose to 111.2 in March from 110.7 in the preceding month.

The U.S. wholesale report: Revealed the first rise in both sales and inventories in six months, and with a larger sales than inventory rise that allowed modest downward pressure on the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio after the steep spike to a 1.37 expansion-high in January. Sales rose 0.7% in March while inventories rose 0.1%, and the I/S ratio sustained the February downtick to 1.36. We still expect a boost in Q1 GDP growth to 0.9% from 0.5%, but with a $2 bln boost in wholesale inventories that accompanies a $6 bln boost in factory inventories, alongside a $1 bln hike in equipment spending and $3 bln boosts in both construction and consumption. We still expect 2.0% GDP growth in Q2 with a $13 bln inventory subtraction that leaves a $56 inventory accumulation rate, after a $9.5 (was $17.5) bln subtraction in Q1, as the rate of inventory accumulation slowly drops back to a sustainable rate in the $40 bln area. For monthly forecasts, we expect a 0.3% March business inventory rise after a 0.1% February drop. Today’s 0.1% March rise for wholesale inventories accompanies a 0.2% bounce for factories and an assumed 0.6% retail inventory rise.

Canadian oil-sands fires: The oil production facilities are 90% unscathed and expected to restart within days, possibly weeks. A report by Bloomberg quotes Steve Williams, chief executive officer of Canada’s largest energy company, Suncor Energy: “Mines and drilling projects north of Fort McMurray are already bringing back some of the roughly 1 million barrels a day of supply that was curbed, Facilities south of the energy hub may take longer”.

Main Macro Events Today

  • UK Manufacturing Production: (08:30 GMT) A year on year decrease to -1.9% from -1.85% is expected, following a weak q1. The month on month figure is expected to rise to 0.4% from -1.1% last time.
  • US Crude Oil Inventories: (15:30 GMT) Following last week’s surge to 2.8 million barrels, inventories are expected to show a big drawdown following the Canadian wildfires with only 0.1 million barrels.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Inventories and JOLTS – Both positive

Forex Analysis
2016-05-10_17-48-32

USDIndex, H4    

US JOLTS report showed job openings increased 149k to 5,757k in April after edging up 4k to 5,608k in March (revised up from 5,445k). The rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% (revised from 3.7%). But, hirings dropped 218k to 5,292k after the 285k March rebound to 5,510k (revised from 5,422k). The hire rate slipped to 3.7% from 3.8%. Quitters increased 25k to 2,980k following a 104k increase to 2,955k previously (revised from 2,950k). The rate was unchanged at 2.1%. Fed Chair Yellen is a big fan of the JOLTS report, and especially the quit component.

U.S. wholesale sales jumped 0.7% in March, while inventories rose 0.1%. These are the first increases in sales and inventories since September. The 0.2% February decline in sales was not revised, but February inventories were bumped down to -0.6% from -0.5%. Strength in sales was in petroleum thanks to the surge in oil prices. Excluding petroleum, sales dipped 0.2%. The rise in inventories was supported by drugs and autos. The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.36, holding just off the cycle high of 1.37 from January — the steep spike in the ratio from the 1.20 level from July 2014 is typically only seen in recessions.

Two relatively good pieces of news for the US economy, although the FX markets rather unmoved on the news. The USDIndex remains around 94.00,  USDJPY north of 109.00 and EURUSD south of 1.1400.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDZAR : Looking Bullish breaks key levels

Forex Analysis
2016-05-10_11-31-00

USDZAR, Daily    

The USD has had a positive start to May appreciating (in some cases significantly) against its major trading partners in Europe and Asia. It is up against all the seven majors EUR, JPY, GBP CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD.  Our Traders Board feature shows this very well and allows you to monitor the relative strength of the majors in real time and for the last five trading days. The image below shows the performance of the USD over the last five days. It’s a feature that is well worth making part of your trading day.

2016-05-10_11-05-17

The two percent plus move against the Asian currencies is also reflected in the emerging market currencies too. One pair that caught my eye today was the South African Rand (USDZAR).

Trading the exotic pairs brings some additional risks and rewards. The lower liquidity and higher spreads means that trades should be carefully constructed and evaluated before executing. As we always emphasize your trading capital is your most important asset and you should always trade with strict risk management rules.  “Trade what you see not what you think”, apply your rules consistently and you can be successful regardless of the asset or time frame you choose to trade.

The USDZAR broke some key levels yesterday and looks to be in a bullish up move:

  • Last week it rallied to the 23.6 Fib level and the psychological round number at 15.0000.
  • It finally closed above 15.0000 yesterday having reached the level in the three previous trading sessions but was unable to breach the level. So we have had a fairly typical, reach, breach and broken pattern.
  •  Yesterday’s close (15.1650) was also at a key level, which had previously been support, during February and March, and had turned to resistance for April. A close today over this level indicates strength for this pair.

I will be looking for Target 1 area around 15.3800 – 15.5000 and Target 2 around 16.0000  – 16.3000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 05.10.2016

Forex Analysis
2016-05-10_09-41-59

 

FOREX News Today

China CPI & PPI: CPI month on month (-0.2%) improved from previous (-0.4%) the year on year figure was a little short of expectations and remained unchanged at 2.3% (expectations were for a slight rise to 2.4%. It eases worries about deflation but the economy remains soft. Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to improve and beat expectations, actual number was -3.4% beating expectations of -3.8% and better than the March figure which was -4.3%.

German Industrial Production & Trade Balance: Worse than expected and was the second consecutive monthly drop. Industrial production was -1.3% from -0.7% last month and significantly weaker than expectations at -0.2%. Conversely the German trade balance exceeded expectations at 23.6bln euro but German exports declined by 0.5% and imports by 4.3% in March 2016 year on year.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari, monetary policy stance is appropriate and there’s room for improvement in the economy, he said, though non-monetary policies are more important than Fed policy to attain full employment. Indeed, he reiterates that monetary policy has its limits and there’s too much focus on near-term interest rate policy than the need for long-term solutions. Sounds like he continues to straddle the fence and would vote with the consensus in June (whatever that is) if he had a vote.

Japan FM Aso: Yesterday talked of potential intervention by the BOJ and that the US does not object to Japans FX policy, however, overnight he has been quoted “We’ve been saying that one-sided rapid currency moves are undesirable. As a result, the dollar is now moving around 108.00”   All very interesting, USDJPY currently  trading at 108.80.         

Main Macro Events Today

  •   US Wholesale Inventories: An improvement to -0.1% from -0.5% is expected.
  • UK Trade Balance: We expect a rise to -11.2bln GBP from -12Bln last month. Brexit remains the dominant factor for the GBP.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Risk on, stocks up and gold down

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-09_16-26-02

Gold, Daily

Gold prices have come off (-0.88%) as money has flowed into equities and markets are in a risk on mode. German Dax is up by 1.49% together with Eurostoxx 50 rising by 1.5%. Elsewhere, Indian CNX Nifty index is up by over 1.7% at the time of writing. The price of gold created a bearish doji candle in the weekly chart last week. In the daily time frame price has created a lower high. Both of these technical factors suggest weakness in the price of gold and increase chances of price moving lower in the coming days. Also, Stochastic oscillator (daily) is pointing lower.

There was a minor support at 1270 – 1272 that gold has now broken. We could see gold move all the way down to between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels where the 30 and 50 period moving averages currently reside. Should gold move to these levels, it’d be near the rising channel low and fairly oversold. I am therefore looking for long entry signals inside my buy area at 1243.80 – 1255.50 range with Target 1 at 1265.50 – 1276 and Target 2 at 1281.80 – 1291.40.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD – Hits Target 1 as USD gains ground

Forex Analysis
2016-05-09_15-14-06

AUDUSD, Daily    

On Friday (May 6th) I identified a low risk, high probability trade based on both the fundamental news and a coincidence of technical indicators. The RBA had cut interest rates on Tuesday May 3rd and then had also cut Inflation expectations for 2016 on Thursday May 5th.  The initial Target 1 (0.7330) saw a confluence of the Daily and Weekly Fibonacci levels, together with a key psychological area that was likely to be tested.

Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the Australian federal election (the 54 day campaign started today for the July 2nd election) is likely to hang over the AUD.

The USD strengthened in the Asian session and has gained ground in the European session today as USDJPY trades north of 108.00 and EURUSD falls to nine-day lows at 1.1380.

Further down we have 200 DMA, support and Target 2 at 0.7260.  The Monthly chart turned down during April and shows support at 0.7050 and then 0.7000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Crude oil hits Target 1 as Canada fires rage

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-09_09-33-18

Crude Oil, 240 min

On May 5th I wrote about wildfires in Canada’s oil producing regions and about US oil production dropping to lowest level since Sept 2014, sinking by more than 100k barrels a day in the week up to April 29th. Based on the fundamentals suggesting less supply and technicals indicating that the prices could move higher I said that I’d be interested in long entry signals inside my buy area at $43.20 – $44.00 with Target 1 at $45.00 – $45.50 and Target 2 at $46 – $46.70.

Crude oil retraced to my buy area on Friday, gave a buy signal and hit target 1 on the same day. Now price has rallied further and has almost touched the target 2. According to Reuters oil producers and refiners braced today for further supply constraints from the wildfires that have shut one half of Canada’s vast oil sands capacity and forced BP and other big oil firms to warn they would not be able to deliver on some contracts.

Price is currently trading near the upper daily Bollinger Bands and the recent highs. Therefore resistance levels of the recent trading range are near but at the same time the price of oil has created two higher reaction lows in the 4h chart. The higher lows increase the probabilities of this market breaking higher.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Economic Week Ahead 05.09.2016

Forex Analysis
The EWA Banner

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The headline job numbers were clearly disappointing, but many of the details, including the workweek and earnings were better than expected. The economic calendar is comparatively lean this week. Updates resume with the wholesale trade report (Tuesday) where sales are projected to climb 0.5% (median 0.3%) and inventories are seen flat in March. Yellen’s favored JOLTS job openings report is also due for some hindsight on payrolls. The MBA and EIA reports (Wednesday) will be followed later by the Treasury budget gap, forecast to widen to $75.0 bln in April (median $112.5 bln) vs -$108 bln in March. Import prices are expected to rise 0.7% in April (median 0.6%) vs 0.2% (Thursday), while export prices rise 0.1% (median unchanged), and initial jobless claims are seen dipping 7k to 267k for the week ended May 7. Retail sales will anchor the week (Friday) and are forecast to rise 0.6% (median 0.8%) vs -0.3% in April, or +0.4% ex-auto, to potentially snap their 2016 losing streak. This will be followed by April PPI, forecast to rise 0.4% (median 0.3%) vs -0.1%; core rising only 0.1% (median 0.1%). Michigan sentiment is seen rising to 90.0 in May vs 89.0 and business inventories may rise 0.3% in March (median 0.2%) vs -0.1%.

Canada: The April housing starts report is the headliner (Monday), and growth in starts is expected to slow to a 195.0k unit rate from the 204.3k clip in March. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to grow 0.2% m/m in March after the identical 0.2% rise in February. The Teranet/National Bank home price index for April will be released Thursday. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will participate in a panel discussion (Wednesday) on the topic of “Paradigm Shift: The Changing Global Bond Market and Implications for Investors.”

Europe:  The ECB remains entrenched in wait and see mode, while the debate about the ECB’s expansionary policy continues in Germany and Greek bailout review talks drag on and once again raise Grexit fears amid concerns about the stability of the Eurozone. Eurozone finance ministers and ECB officials are meeting on Monday to discuss the state of play. German production and trade reports for March will round off the first quarter data releases, ahead of the preliminary GDP number on Friday.  Tuesday sees production data which is expected to be  of -3% m/m, which is in line with consensus and would tie in with the weak orders number from February. The German HICP rate is expected to be confirmed at just -0.3% y/y (corrected from an erroneously released -0.1% reported initially) and French HICP at -0.1% y/y, which would leave the overall Eurozone number at -0.1% y/y. The official take is that headline rates will start to move higher again later in the year and for now the ECB remains firmly on hold.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will conduct its May meeting (Tuesday), where a no-change stance by unanimous vote is all but certain. Last week saw the April UK composite PMI undershoot expectations and fall to three-year lows, with Markit, the survey compiler, confirming that the risk of leaving the EU is affecting business and investment planning. There is a circulating argument in markets that the UK economy will rebound sharply in the event of a vote to remain in the EU at the Jun-23 referendum, but the latest FT poll tracker suggests the issue remains a close call, with 46% favouring Remain and 43% favouring Leave, which compares to respective figures of 47% and 41% that were seen at the start of last week. This, along with the sizable chunk of undecided voters, maintains the Brexit vote as a high-stakes risk event for the UK and sterling, and for the euro itself. UK calendar commences with the Halifax house price report for April (Monday), which is expected to show some cooling. The April BRC retail sales survey follows (Tuesday), where there is downside risk, ahead of March trade data (also Tuesday), expected to show a deficit of GPB 11.2 bln.  March production data (Wednesday) is expected to show an on-the-month rebound following weakness in February. We expect a 0.3% rise in industrial output (median +0.4%) versus the -0.4% February reading. The y/y figure is expected at -0.4%, after -0.5% in February.

China: April CPI and PPI (Tuesday) are forecast at 2.2% y/y from 2.3%, and -4.0% y/y from -4.3%, respectively. April loan growth is penciled in at 14.5% y/y from 14.7%, while new yuan loans are expected to shrink to CNY 800.0 bln from 1,379.0 bln in March.

Japan: Preliminary March leading and coincident indices are due Wednesday, with March current account data (Thursday) which is forecast at a JPY 2,800.0 bln surplus from the 2,434.9 bln previously. April credit data is due Thursday as well, while Friday brings the March tertiary index, which is seen down 0.2% m/m from the prior -0.1% outcome, along with money supply figures.

Australia: Economic data is thin. Housing investment (Wednesday) is expected to fall 1.0% m/m in March following the 1.5% gain in February. ANZ job ads (Monday) are expected to rise 0.1% m/m in April after the 0.2% gain in March. The thin calendar will not provide anything new on the inflation outlook and hence have no impact on the outlook for policy, with is for further rate cuts this year following last week’s surprise 25 basis point easing and dovish reduction in the RBA’s inflation projection for 2016. RBA Governor (Financial System) Edey speaks at the Cards and Payments Australia conference in Melbourne (Thursday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

NFP disappoints, only 160k jobs

Forex Analysis
EURUSD

US non-farm payrolls rose 160k in April with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.0%. The 215k increase in March jobs was revised down to 208k, with February’s 245k now at 233k, for a net 19k downward adjustment. Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% compared to the prior 0.2% gain (revised from 0.3%) with February now unchanged versus the -0.1% previously.

The workweek ticked up to 34.5 from 34.4. Household employment dropped 316k, with the labor force off 362k. The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.8% versus 63.0%. As for other details, private payrolls increased 171k, with modest gains of 1k in construction and 4k in manufacturing, with the goods sector dropping 3k. Jobs in the service sector increased 174k, paced by business services (65k) and education (54k). Government employment declined 9k. The report is on the disappointing side of expectations, but it doesn’t shut the door on a June Fed rate hike.

I wrote earlier that “I will be looking for sell signals between 1.1453 and 1.1474 with T1 at 1.1409 – 1.1425 bracket and T2 at 1.1360 – 1.1377 range.” Market moved slightly above my sell area and then reversed providing an opportunity to sell EURUSD. By the time of writing market has moved to my Target 1.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUDUSD – Bearish on RBA Inflation Forecast

Forex Analysis
2016-05-06_10-19-59

AUDUSD, Daily    

The RBA cut its forecast for underlying inflation in 2016 to 1-2% from 2-3% in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The Bank’s forecasts for growth and the labour market were little changed from the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Further rate cuts look likely this year amid increased risk that inflation expectations remain persistently lower for longer than the Bank currently expects. AUDUSD fell 0.8% to 0.7400 from 0.7460 as the Australian dollar lost value against the U.S. dollar following the release of the Statement.

I last updated the AUDUSD pair April 27th before the RBA meeting last week and the rate cut and last night’s reduction in the inflation target. My headline then was  “Australia Where  has the inflation gone?” yesterday’s announcement  cemented my thoughts. I also suggested that the 0.7450 level was a key support level; this was robustly and significantly broken in the last 24 hours.

Technically we now have Daily support and downside Target 1 at 0.7330 – the 50% Fib level, which also coincides with the Weekly retracement levels.  Further down we have 200 DMA, support and Target 2 at 0.7260.  The monthly chart turned down during April and shows support at 0.7050 and 0.7000.

2016-05-06_12-55-37

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Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


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