Author: Forex Analysis

EURUSD attempts to rally from support

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-06_09-36-54

EURAUD, 60 min

US Employment for April is out later and should reveal a 210k (median 208k) headline for the month following larger increases of 215k in March and 245k in February. Initial claims improved dramatically during April which could help lift the headline but consumer confidence measures and ADP were subdued.

Two days ago while EURUSD was still trading at 1.1490 I wrote that “the 1.1532 to 1.1570 should be a challenge for the bulls and this Sell Area has potential to turn the pair down again. We will follow the price action to see if market supplies us with sell signals. Should this happen my target one is at 1.1480 and target two at 1.1410.”

The pair rallied almost to my sell area but turned lower 4 pips below it. Market then moved down to hit both of the targets and is now reacting higher from a support created by the April 20th and 21st highs.

After moving considerably lower in last three days it seems that EURUSD is now likely to retrace some of the move which might provide us with entries on the short side after a rally. In the event that the rally I’m anticipating takes price all the way up to my sell aera I will be looking for sell signals between 1.1453 and 1.1474 with T1 at 1.1409 – 1.1425 bracket and T2 at 1.1360 – 1.1377 range.

Remember to manage the risks adequately and avoid highly geared positions when the US Non-Farm Payrolls are published. If you don’t know how to manage your risks professionally we recommend you attend our educational and interactive webinars.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro News & Events for 05.06.2016

Forex Analysis
2016-05-06_08-39-04

FX News Today

RBA cut its forecast for inflation: The RBA has cut its forecast for underlying inflation in 2016 to 1-2% from 2-3% in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The Bank’s forecasts for growth and the labour market were little changed from the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Further rate cuts look likely this year amid increased risk that inflation expectations remain persistently lower for longer than the Bank currently expects. The 3-year yield fell to a record low 1.567% after the Statement. AUD-USD fell 0.8% to 0.7400 from 0.7460 as the Australian dollar lost value against the U.S. dollar following the release of the Statement. The 0.7450 level had been a strong support area during March and April.

EMU: What Investment Weakness? Eurozone Q1 GDP numbers may have surprised on the upside, but growth projections continue to be revised down. Global risk factors aside, weakness in core countries and the apparent lack of investment have been largely blamed for the modest growth performance as well as the ECB’s latest round of easing measures. But while Draghi’s policy of easy money has managed to give equipment investment a strong boost, governments are still not delivering on either structural reforms or budget consolidation and their over-reliance on the central bank’s cheap funds will come back to haunt the Eurozone

Lots of Fedspeak: Fed’s Lockhart said he’s on the fence currently regarding a June rate hike, in a CNBC interview. And he said the Fed should keep the rate hike option open. It’s too early to tell much about Q2 GDP. He does believe the Brexit vote could be a consideration for policymakers. Fed governor Kaplan also concurred with the latter sentiment, in comments on Bloomberg Radio. He added he’d like to see more job market improvement, along with evidence of firming inflation. SF Fed’s Williams on CNBC said he’s optimistic on growth and believes that “residual seasonality” in Q1 GDP understates the health of the economy and views the jobs mandate as largely met, while inflation is rebounding. Finally, StL Fed’s Bullard reiterated June is a live meeting and added that options are open. The open question is whether the data will justify a hike.

Japan PM Abe is continuing his tour of Europe: Urging cooperation against undesirable volatile FX moves, where “appropriate action” will be taken as needed given the impact on Japan’s trade-reliant firms. He argues for coordination on the global economy, along with flexible fiscal policy and avoiding over reliance on monetary tools. Ahead of the G7 meetings he says that there is agreement with leaders of UK, France and Germany that FX stability and not rapid FX moves are desirable after recent rapid and speculative trade, though Japan isn’t attempting to influence FX moves on a permanent basis. Clearly Japan is feeling the pinch of the strong yen and it is undermining their reflation goals. USDJPY remains over 107 and is currently trading at 107.20.

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Employment (NFP): US Employment for April is out later and should reveal a 210k (median 208k) headline for the month following larger increases of 215k in March and 245k in February. Initial claims improved dramatically during April which could help lift the headline but consumer confidence measures and ADP were subdued.
  • Canada Employment: We expect a 10.0k rise in April employment, due Friday, after the 40.6k surge in March. The risk is the downside for April, as goods sector jobs could remain soft while the service sector could see a more modest gain (or pull-back.) The unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in March after moving to 7.3% in February. We expect the rate to nudge to 7.2% in April. Hours worked are seen rising 0.2% m/m in April after the flat reading in March.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Initial Jobless Claims Surge

Forex Analysis
2016-05-05_16-07-46

EURUSD, 240    

U.S. initial jobless claims surged 17k to 274k in the week ended April 30, the highest level in five weeks. The 17k U.S. initial claims pop to 274k in the final week of April extended the 9k rise to 257k from a 42-year low of 248k in the April BLS survey week, as claims nearly return to the 276k recent peak in the week of Good Friday. Despite the sharp rise, the extremely tight mid-month readings signal upside risk for our 210k April payroll estimate.  The claims roller-coaster ride since late-March, with high readings then and now with a deep trough in between, is likely due at least partly to the difficulties of seasonal adjustment with this year’s early Easter. Note that non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) claims fell 2k alongside the 17k seasonally adjusted (SA) rise. Claims averaged a lean 259k in April despite the late-month climb, versus higher recent averages of a still-lean 265k in March, 261k in February, 282k in January and 277k in December. The 248k April BLS survey week reading undershot recent already-tight BLS readings of 259k in March, 260k in February, 291k in January and 275k in both November and December.

EURUSD remains rather unmoved by the data,  with support around the 1.1400 level and resistance at 1.1470-1.1480. All eyes now on tomorrows Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Services PMI – Another weak number

Forex Analysis
2016-05-05_11-59-27

GBPUSD, Daily    

UK Services PMI growth the weakest in over three years: This is a full set of three big misses in the three PMI surveys for April. The headline services number fell to 52.3, the lowest level since February 2013, and well off both the median for 53.5 and the 53.7 reading in the previous month. The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dove to a contractionary 49.2 reading, the weakest level seen since February 2013, and the construction PMI fell to its weakest level since June 2013. The composite PMI worked out at 51.9, down from 53.6 in March. Markit estimates that the UK GDP fell to just 0.1% q/q growth in the three months to April, down from 0.4% growth in Q1. Markit notes that the early timing of Easter this may have affected the service sector, but also notes that “April also saw an increase in the number of companies reporting that uncertainty about the EU referendum caused customers to hold back on purchases,” which is exacerbating already shaky demand amid fiscal tightening and global uncertainties.

Technically, GBPUSD has come off its 2016 highs, with support at 1.4418 and 1.4283 (50 DMA) and resistance at the recent 2016 high at 1.4667 and 1.4700.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US oil production at lowest levels since September 2014

Forex Analysis
oil

Crude Oil, 240 min

Crude oil rallied over 4% after reversing at 43.22 in yesterday’s trading. Recent news article from Reuters associates the move higher with a huge wildfire in Canada’s oil sands area while fighting in Libya threatens the North African output. Traders said that WTI prices were driven up by uncontrolled wildfires in Canada that disrupted oil production in the province of Alberta. This morning Kuwait News Agency reports that US oil production drops to lowest level since Sept 2014, sinking by more than 100k barrels a day in the week up to April 29th.

Last three month’s rally has taken the price of crude oil (US Oil) to levels it tried to find support in January – March 2015 period. Price has trended higher strongly in the daily timeframe with some lack of momentum creeping in lately. However, as long as price trends higher it makes sense to look for opportunities in the direction of the trend. Yesterday’s trading created a narrow range candle which at a support indicates that prices are likely to move higher but there’s another narrow range candle (a Doji) created on April 29th which could mean prices are likely to range a while before it’s able to break into new highs.

Should the market create a range it could trace back to the recent lows. I’m therefore looking for long entry signals inside my Buy Area at $43.20 – $44.00 with Target 1 at $45.00 – $45.50 and Target 2 at $46 – $46.70. The area between $45.20 and $46.20 could be a challenge for the bulls and therefore cause intra-day volatility. However the trend is higher in the daily timeframe and should support the buyers’ efforts in the long run. This means that those looking for swing trades might want to look for moves to a Target 3 in $50 – $51 range.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro News & Events for 05.05.2016

Forex Analysis
2016-05-05_08-51-22

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global sell off on stock markets continued in Asia overnight, with global growth concerns lingering after mixed U.S. data yesterday were followed by a dip in China’s Caixin Services PMI (more below). Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia were closed. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher, so it looks like another early attempt at stabilisation, although we have been there yesterday and stock markets still headed south in the end. Bund futures managed to claw back losses in after hour trade and could post some early gains, but yesterday’s rise in yields and widening of spreads highlights that the Eurozone still remains vulnerable to jitters in confidence. The European calendar has the UK Services PMI for April, which is expected to rise to 54.2 (med 54.1) from 53.7 in the previous month. The UK also has Halifax house price data, while the Eurozone data calendar is empty, leaving the focus on the ECB’s latest economic bulletin and ongoing Greek bailout review talks.

 China Caixin Services PMI Falls: The index fell to 51.8 for April from 52.2 in March but is still growing with new business growing the most this year and business expectations remained unchanged. Expectations were for an increase to 52.6 the figures have been received as disappointing overall. “Expansion in the services sector helped offset some of the impact caused by flagging manufacturing. Overall, however, the economy still faces relatively strong downward pressure,” He Fan, chief economist of Caixin, said in a note. “The government needs to keep implementing moderate stimulus to prevent a hard landing of the economy.” The slowing in the headline index may add to market nervousness over growth.

Australian data releases beat forecasts. Retail sales rose 0.4% m/m in March, up from 0.1% the month prior and above the median forecast for a 0.3% rise. The trade deficit deflated to -A$2.2 bln in March from February’s -A$3.0 bln (revised from -A$3.4 bln), and below the median expectation for a deficit of -A$2.9 bln. New homes sales lifted by 8.9% m/m in March, more than reversing the 5.3% drop seen in February, according to Housing Industry Association data. The data is prompting upward revisions to Q1 GDP estimates and has sparked a rally in the Aussie dollar, which is presently up by just over 0.6% versus the US buck.

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Initial jobless claims: Initial claims data for the week of April 23rd is out today and is expected to show a headline increase to 263k from 257 last week and 248k, forty year low, prior to that. Claims for the month are poised to average 254k from 264k in March and 261k in February.
  • UK Services PMI:  Expectations are for a slight fall to 53.5 from 53.7 in April, following the surprise March low of 52.7.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US ADP Payrolls only 156K

Forex Analysis
EURUSD update

US ADP reported payrolls disappointed. The number came in at 156k in April, while analyst consensus expected almost 200k new jobs to be reported today. The service sector contributed 166k, but the goods producing sector saw an 11k decline. Construction employment was up 14k, while manufacturing fell 13k. Jobs in financial and accounting firms increased 4k. Professional, business services added 27k, with trade, transportation, and utility employment up 25k.

As a response to the employment numbers EURUSD moved higher initially but then sellers overcame the buyers. Price rallied almost to 1.1530 before turning lower and retracing back below the levels seen before the ADP publication.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURUSD finding support at April 4th high

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-04_14-22-18

EURUSD, 60 min

EURUSD created a bearish shooting star candle in yesterday’s trading. The day was rather volatile with the pair running up by X% and then closing below the opening price and near the session lows. Today we’ve seen some sideways action which is typical after market moves significantly on the day before. EURUSD has also found support from the proximity of April 4th high at 1.1465. Today’s low at the time of writing has been 1.1469. Market participants are also waiting for the US employment numbers for April from ADP which are due to be released at 12:15 GMT. No major change is expected to March numbers.

In the hourly chart the EURUSD pair can be seen in a descending channel but as mentioned, the 1.1465 support is not that far and has attracted buyers while it has also kept the bears in check. I expect that traders will tread carefully until the ADP number is out even though no major change is expected. I’m seeing resistance at 1.1500 and 1.1511 with the nearest support at 1.1465. The 4h chart has now a doji candle which suggests the downside momentum has faded and the pair could try to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. However, the 1.1532 to 1.1570 should be a challenge for the bulls and this Sell Area has potential to turn the pair down again. We will follow the price action to see if market supplies us with sell signals. Should this happen my target one is at 1.1480 and target two at 1.1410.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 05.04.2016

Forex Analysis
2016-05-04_0928

FX News Today

European Council President Donald Tusk called for a deal in Greek debt talks by the end of the month and said more intensive efforts were needed for that to happen. Talks are dragging on over reforms Greece must carry out to complete the review of its third international financial rescue package, as well as on contingency steps that Athens must prepare in case it misses its fiscal targets. (source: Reuters)

Chinese authorities are training their sights on a new set of targets: economists, analysts and business reporters with gloomy views on the country’s economy. Securities regulators, media censors and other government officials have issued verbal warnings to commentators whose public remarks on the economy are out of step with the government’s upbeat statements, according to government officials and commentators with knowledge of the matter. (source: Wall Street Journal)

New Zealand’s jobless rate rose in the first quarter as the nation’s labour force recorded its biggest increase in 12 years and Auckland drove an increase in employment growth. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent in the first quarter, from a revised 5.4 percent three months earlier, Statistics New Zealand said. The labour force increased by 38,000, or 1.5 percent, the largest increase since December 2004.

SF Fed dove Williams expects the Fed to gradually raise rates over the next couple of years and he agreed with the decision not to raise rates yet this year. He is forecasting 2% GDP growth this year, but needs to see inflation pick up or continued progress on the economy to hike in June. He is supposed to be speaking from a panel on systemic risk from Los Angeles later and his remarks are being picked up Bloomberg Radio. He has leaned toward the hawkishly patient side this year and this fits that profile.

BoC Governor Poloz said yesterday in a panel discussion that low interest rates mean less impact from rate moves. International performance divergence causes volatile foreign exchange. The U.S. economy is in a sweet spot for growth. The time it takes before inflation kick in is an open question, he said. The federal budget is expansionary. The Governor is taking part in a panel discussion.

Main Macro Events Today

  • The ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting:  The ECB Governing council will meet today but no monetary policy will discussed in this Non-monetary policy ECB meeting. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced in July last year that the Governing Council meetings dedicated to monetary policy will change to a new six-week cycle, from January 2015. Non-monetary policy meetings will continue to be held at least once a month.
  • US ADP Unemployment change: The unofficial ADP unemployment report for April is due today. No major change is expected with consensus expectation being at 196K while the previous survey reported 200K new jobs.
  • US Non-Manufacturing ISM: The ISM-NMI is out on Wednesday and should hold steady at 54.5 (median 54.1) from last month. The ISM for the month declined to 50.8 from 51.8. Broadly speaking, producer sentiment has eased to still firm levels in April after a surge in March. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to dip back to 51 for April from 53 in March and 49 in both February and January. This could spell some downside risk to the release

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US PMI held steady while ISM numbers fell

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-02_17-41-36

EURUSD, Daily

US Markit manufacturing PMI (final) held steady at 50.8 in April compared to the flash reading (lowest since September 2009), but down from the 51.5 final March print. The final PMI output index also held steady at 50.3 in April vs the flash reading, but down from final March 51.2. The final April employment index settled unchanged vs the flash of 50.2, though down from the 52.2 final March print. Overall, not very compelling, though focus will shift to ISM and construction data shortly.

At the same time US manufacturing ISM fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March. The prices index surged to 59.0 in April from 51.5 in March. New orders eroded to 55.8 in April from 58.3 in March. While the pull-back in the total index was slightly more pronounced than anticipated (median was 51.3), the result was largely as-expected.

US construction spending rose 0.3% in March versus consensus forecasts of a 0.5% gain. February data however, was revised sharply higher to up 1.0% to from -0.5%. The small March miss can be attributed to slower housing starts reported for March.

EURUSD reacted higher at first but has since retraced some of its gains. The nearest 4h support and resistance levels are at 1.1481 and 1.1534 with the next support at 1.1465 (coincides with 0.236 retracement) and 1.1398. EURUSD reaction after the data could lead to market testing the nearest supports before finding direction again. This price action is taking place outside the upper daily Bollinger bands which could mean going gets tougher for the bulls. At the same time however, there is support in the weekly charts around 1.1460 (weekly highs) and could mean that Euro bears are careful with their short positioning and leave more room for the bulls to bid prices higher.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.