Macro Events & News for 02.16.2016

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Stock markets continued to move higher in Asia, but with gains moderating after yesterday’s rally. The Nikkei is up 0.2% and the Hang Seng 1.23% on the day. US and UK stock futures are also higher. Risk appetite is reviving and Draghi’s remarks yesterday that the ECB is “ready to do its part” to boost the Eurozone are helping. Elsewhere RBA minutes left the door open to further easing. Oil prices are moving higher and the front end Nymex future is trading above USD 30 per barrel. The calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to fall into negative territory at -0.5%, down from 10.2% in January. The UK has inflation numbers, which are likely to remain benign. In Germany the ECB’s OMT program is once again under the scrutiny of Germany’s top court, who has to deliver its final verdict, after the European top court effectively backed the program.

The RBA Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent. In considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent domestic data had, on balance, been positive and judged that there were reasonable prospects for growth to increase gradually over the forecast period while maintaining inflation close to target. Employment growth over 2015 had been stronger than earlier expected and the starting point for the forecast for the unemployment rate was around ½ percentage point lower. Inflation continued to be relatively low, with underlying measures of inflation at about 2 per cent over 2015. Growth in labour costs also remained quite subdued. Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting. Over the period ahead, new information would enable the Board to assess whether the recent improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether recent financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand.

ECB’s Deaghi said that the central bank “is ready to do its part” and will “review, and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March.” He said much will depend on the “size and persistence of the fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round effects on wages and prices.” He argued that in light of recent financial turmoil “we will analyse the state of transmission of our monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular banks.” Draghi gave away nothing new, leaving the door firmly open to more action but taking a cautious line ahead of tomorrow’s hearing of the OMT (outright monetary transactions) program before the German Constitutional Court (which could still throw a spanner in the works). He did, however, note “increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy” and “intensified” turbulence in financial markets.” Draghi has been speaking before a European Parliament Committee.

 Main Macro Events Today

  • UK Inflation numbers are due today. The January Core consumer price index (YoY) is expected to come in at 1.3%, slightly below December figure of 1.4% while the headline inflation number (including food and energy) is expected to move up one tenth from 0.2%.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today. We expect ZEW to fall into negative territory, thus highlighting that pessimists now outnumber optimists. We are looking for a sharp drop to -0.5% from 10.2 in January, a decline that will only add to mounting growth concerns.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Economic Week Ahead for 02.15.2016

The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

  • United States: economic data will resume after today’s Presidents Day holiday, starting with the Empire State index (Tuesday) forecast rebound to -12.0 in February (median -10.0) from -19.4 in January. The NAHB housing market index is also set to tick up to 61 in February from 60, while the Treasury International Capital (TIC) flow release is due late in the session. The MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) is on tap and headline PPI should come in tame at -0.1% (median -0.2%) vs -0.2%, or +0.1% for core vs +0.2%. Housing starts are expected to increase 1.8% to a 1,170k unit pace in January, while permits may rise to 1,210k. Industrial production is forecast to be flat for January (median 0.3%) vs -0.4% in December, while capacity use may dip to 76.4% (median 76.6%) from 76.5%. FOMC minutes to the January meeting (Wednesday) aren’t likely to get the usual scrutiny they would otherwise receive, primarily since Chair Yellen’s testimony last week provided a more up-to-date dovish outline of Fed thinking. The Philly Fed index is set to remain damp (Thursday) at -3.0 in February (median -2.8) vs -3.5, while initial jobless claims may tick up 5k to 274k and leading indicators rise 0.2% (median -0.2%) vs -0.2. CPI rounds out the week on its lonesome (Friday), set to sink 0.1% headline and rise 0.1% core. Fedspeakers pile up starting this week (Tuesday) with Philly Fed’s Harker will discuss the economic outlook at the University of Delaware. Minneapolis Fed president Kashkari will analyze the lessons of the financial crisis at a Brookings event. Note, Kashkari was instrumental in implementing the TARP program while at the Treasury Department during the crisis, which could make this speech especially informative. Boston Fed dove Rosengren will mull the economic outlook as well. St. Louis Fed dove Bullard (Wednesday) will discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook at a Fed forecast dinner. SF Fed dove Williams will take a look at the economic outlook (Thursday) at a town hall meeting in L.A. Wrapping it all up will be Cleveland Fed hawk Mester (Friday), who will mull the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center.
  • Canada: a holiday-truncated calendar has a steady schedule of key economic reports. Markets are closed today for Family Day. Manufacturing (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.5% m/m in December after the 1.0% bounce in November. Wholesale shipments (Thursday) are seen growing 0.2% m/m in December after the 1.8% rise in November. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to fall 1.0% m/m in December after the 1.7% surge in November. Sales excluding the autos aggregate are projected to fall 0.7% following the 1.1% gain in November. Total CPI (Friday) is expected to pick-up to a 1.7% y/y rate in January from the 1.6% clip in December. The BoC’s core CPI is seen growing at a 1.9% y/y pace in January, matching the 1.9% in December. Existing home sale for January are due on Tuesday. There is nothing from the BoC this week. 
  • Europe: ECB’s Draghi speaks today. Market volatility has increased, with large swings in peripheral stock and bond markets reminding the ECB that especially peripherals remain vulnerable and that Draghi’s promise has not solved the Eurozone’s fundamental problems. Draghi will have to pull quite a rabbit out of his hat in March and will have a first chance to try and placate investors on Monday, when he speaks at a European Parliament Committee. Data releases this week are unlikely to take any pressure off the ECB. The focus is on German ZEW Investor Sentiment (Tuesday), which we expect to fall into negative territory, thus highlighting that pessimists now outnumber optimists. We are looking for a sharp drop to -0.5% from 10.2 in January, a decline that will only add to mounting growth concerns. Similarly Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Friday) is seen falling further into negative territory at -6.5, despite the fact that at least so far the labour market continues to improve and reflecting mainly concerns about the general economic outlook. The Eurozone also has trade data today and BoP and Current Account data on Thursday, both for December. With Q4 GDP numbers already released the numbers are too backward looking to change the outlook and will bring mainly background information. German releases producer price inflation for January and France has the final reading of January inflation numbers, which are not expected to hold any surprise. 
  • United Kingdom: The calendar this week brings January inflation data (Tuesday), labour market numbers covering December and January (Wednesday), and retail sales (Thursday). Monthly government borrowing numbers are also (Friday). Last week brought unambiguously weak UK production data, while we expect this week’s releases to be a mixed bag, with unemployment expected to hit a new cycle low of 5.0%, retail sales expected to be perky, but inflation likely to remain benign, which, along with the backdrop of global market turmoil, should leave the BoE a no-hike-for-the-foreseeable policy standing. Markets have now priced out any chance of the BoE hiking rates before next year following last week’s publication of the BoE’s quarterly Inflation Report, which detailed lower growth and inflation projections.
  • China: In China, the markets reopen after the week long holidays and will have a lot of catching up to do. As for data, January Trade Balance numbers came in at $63.3B (previous $60.9B). January CPI and PPI (Thursday) are forecast at 1.7% y/y from 1.6%, and -5.5% y/y from -5.9%, respectively.
  • Japan: the December tertiary industry index (today) improved slightly to -0.6% in December (November: -0.9%). Revised December industrial production deteriorated further to -1.9 YoY from the previous number of -1.6%, while Q4 1st preliminary GDP (Tuesday) is forecast at -2.0%, from the previous 1.0%. December machine orders are seen rebounding 3.0% m/m, from the 14.4% fall previously. A JPY 500 bln deficit is expected for the January trade report (Thursday). The December all-industry index (Friday) is penciled in at -0.5% m/m from -1.0% previously.
  • Australia: calendar is highlighted by the January employment report (Thursday), expected to show a 5.0k gain in jobs following the 1.0k dip in December. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8% in January, identical to the 5.8% in December. The minutes to the RBA’s February meeting will be released on Tuesday. The bank held rates steady at 2.00%, as expected, but opened the door wide to another rate cut if needed to support domestic demand. Assistant Governor (Financial System) Malcolm Edey speaks to the Australian Shareholders Association (ASA) Investor Forum in Sydney (Thursday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 02.05.2016

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Cleveland Fed hawk Mester saw “a little more downside risk” to the U.S. economy than when the Fed hiked in December in remarks earlier after the NY close, though when pressed about the market sell-off in January, she said “you can read too much into volatility.” That makes it 4 out of 5 Fedspeakers this week mulling greater downside risk, which will help keep the dollar on the defensive. Between NIRP in Japan and easy money promises from the ECB and now a unanimous BoE in favor of steady policy it appears the FX wars are in full swing. USDJPY is near session and one month lows of 116.60 after completely erasing the rate cut surge to 121.68 on Jan-29.

Reserve Bank of Australia said low inflation may provide scope for easier policy, not surprisingly repeating a key line from Governor Stevens’ statement earlier this week that accompanied the lack of change in the 2.00% rate setting. The growth and inflation projections in the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy were not substantially different from the previous statement released last November. Underlying inflation is expected to remain low over the forecast period. They note that the recent improvement in the labour market was not expected in November, and could be providing information about the economy not apparent in the national GDP figures. Or the recent strength in the labour market will be followed by a pull-back. Meanwhile, China’s growth outlook is pegged as a sizable source of uncertainty for Australia’s outlook. The AUD is adjusting to lower commodity prices, with the weaker currency benefiting export related industries. Separately, retail sales were flat in December after a 0.4% m/m gain in November, undershooting expectations. Sales volumes grew 0.6% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q3.

US same store sales dipped 0.5% y/y in January, according to Johnson Redbook, after a 0.9% y/y December gain. Apparel paced the weakness with a 3.0% y/y decline, followed by miscellaneous (-2.0% y/y) and drugs (-1.4% y/y), probably on promotions and price declines. Same store sales excluding drugs were down 0.3% y/y. Discounters outperformed with a 0.7% annual gain, while clubs were unchanged. All stores posted a 1.5% y/y gain last month, versus 2.6% y/y in December. This is another manifestation of the slowdown in momentum over the turn of the year. January retail sales will be reported a week from Friday and we’re projecting a 0.1% headline gain, and a flat ex-auto reading.

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Employment: January employment is out today and we expect the headline to reveal a 200k (median 198k) increase for the month. This is below the 292k December increase and the headline faces downside risk from a weaker claims path and deteriorating producer sentiment.
  • Canada Employment: We expect employment to rise 10.0k in January (median 5.0k) after the 22.8k gain in December. Of course, momentum was lacking in the economy going into the new year (unless you were an auto dealer), which could restrain job creation. An as-expected gain would be welcome news given what should be a stall out in GDP growth during Q4, but the report is unlikely to significantly alter the views of those calling for a near term rate cut.
  • Canada Ivey PMI: The Ivey PMI is expected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 51.0 in January from 49.9 in December. The Ivey PMI saw a three month trailing average of 55.5 in December from 56.8 in November. The 3-month average has been falling since the 58.8 in June of 2015, but remains comfortably inside expansionary territory, consistent with a rebound in GDP during the first half of 2016 depressed in January.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 02.04.2016

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Wednesday Trade was Pips Galore for FX Traders!

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to multi month lows in the wake of disappointing U.S. ISM data, although the ADP employment data was not all that bad. However, the weak ISM report was enough to overwhelm the USD longs.

The EURUSD finally broke out of its multi week trading range and jumped +200 pips to close above 1.1100 for the first time since August 2015 . The EURUSD market has been looking for an excuse to annoy Mario Draghi at the ECB and take the EUR higher, and yesterday’s sluggish U.S. economic data was the kind of catalyst that the market has been looking for.

Oil prices rallied up $3 to close at $32.70 up nearly 7% for the day. The sharp move in oil price helped to support commodity related currencies with the CAD surging gains against the USD which pushed the USDCAD lower by over +260 pips to close near the 1.3780’s and the AUD moving higher by +130 pips.

The GBP broke to the upside and climbed 200+ pips during Wednesday trade, ahead of today’s “BoE’s Super Thursday” with the inflation report to be published alongside the minutes and the policy announcement.

Today’s European calendar has ECB economic bulletin, ECB speech from Draghi. The U.S. calendar has weekly jobless claims, prelim Q4 productivity, and factory orders. While the Canadian calendar quiet, employment, trade and Ivey PMI all due Tomorrow.

Main Macro Events Today

EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech: Draghi sends dovish signal. Speaking at a conference in Frankfurt the ECB head said monetary policy can’t be relaxed about the series of supply shocks, adding that Euro-area challenges are no reason for ECB inaction and that adopting a wait and see attitude would carry risks and that “the risks of acting too late outweigh the risks of acting too early”.

GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: BoE expected to keep policy on hold, focus on minutes and inflation report.

• USD U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 268k (median 280k) in the week-ended January 30.

• USD Prelim Non-farm Productivity: Q4 nonfarm productivity should be -3.5% in the first release from 2.2% in Q3.

• USD Factory Goods: December factory orders are expected to decline 3.0% with inventories up 0.3%. Forecast risk: downward, given the weaker top line durable inventory numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact the path of rate hikes.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 02.02.2016

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

The latest U.S. economic reports are suggesting a risk that U.S. 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may drop to a negative level, after weakness in construction spending and weakness in personal income were reveled in the latest batch of U.S. data. The USD pulled back slightly with stock markets closing slightly lower following China’s lead, and as oil prices gave back some recent gains.

The ECB President Mario Draghi has kept the course that the ECB is prepared to use all available resources to keep the Eurozone on track, while he presented the ECB’s annual report yesterday. The markets seem to be testing the creditability of the ECB President as the EUR continues to hold ground.

The European calendar has German and Eurozone labour market data, Eurozone producer price inflation, the U.K. Construction PMI and Swiss retail sales on tab this morning.

The JPY is seeing some renewed strength as markets shift back into the risk-off mode, which is being led by oil price declines. Falling Oil prices, along with ongoing concerns about slowing economic activity in China, has weighed on most stock markets.

The commodity currencies are under some pressure again, as both the AUD and CAD, showing slight declines versus the USD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged at 2.00% during its policy review, but governor Stevens said that while policy will remain data and event driven, “continued low inflation may provide scope for easier policy.” This comment is seen adding to pressure on the AUD in earlier trade today.

The U.S. economic calendar is rather thin today. January auto sales are expected to continue on their solid, near record pace. Weekly chain store sales figures and the February IBD/TIPP economic optimism index are also due. The Fed hawk George will speak on the economy from Kansas City.

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Australian Interest Rate Decision: Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 2.00%, as expected. Governor Stevens was largely constructive on domestic growth, saying that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened in 2015 while employment growth pick-up even while measured GDP was below average. Inflation is expected to remain low over the next year or two. Accommodative policy is appropriate, he said, given these conditions. Low rates are supporting demand, but regulatory measures are working to contain risks in the housing market, he assured. On the exchange rate, he said it “has continued its adjustment to the evolving economic outlook.” The board decided that prospects for continued economic growth were “reasonable,” with inflation close to target. Hence, monetary policy was held steady. Policy remains, not surprisingly, data and event driven as the bank will follow new information to see if the improvement in the job market is sustainable and if “recent financial turbulence portends weaker global and domestic demand.” Notably, Stevens said that “continued low inflation may provide scope for easier policy” should that be needed to support demand.

EUR German Unemployment Data: Confidence indicators may have come off highs, but remain in expansion territory and Markit said companies are sitting on a large amount of unfulfilled orders, which should keep production and employment growth going against global headwinds at least for now. The labor market is improving not just in Germany and the overall Eurozone Dec unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.4% from 10.5%.

USD U.S. Auto Sales: U.S. light vehicle sales in January are expected to edge up 0.5% to 17.3 mln from 17.2 mln in December. Forecast risk: downward, as there is a chance of a correction after summer and fall strength. Market risk: downward, as weakness could impact the path of rate hikes.

U.S. equities will be in the spotlight today with the corporate earnings calendar reporting from ADT, AMG, Ally Financial, Archer Daniels Midland, Baxter Int’l, BP, Chipotle, CIT, Dow Chemical, Edwards Lifesciences, Emerson Electric, Exxon Mobil, Ferrari, Imperial Oil, Pentair, Pfizer, Sirius, UBS, UPS, and Yahoo!

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD for 02.01.2016

The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

  • United States: The economic calendar will be customary drumbeat to the January employment report, where nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are expected to increase by 200k (median 200k), with a 190k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 4.9% (median 5.0%) from 5.0%, which could cause a stir if realized. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from November, while hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.3% which would leave a 2.3% y/y rise and hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.3% decrease last month. On balance an as-expected report would leave the Fed’s jobs pillar in sturdy shape, but while “global economic and financial developments” continue to vex them, from a tactical standpoint risk is that disappointment on the the jobs front would feed market fears about slowing global growth. Also on tap this week is December personal income (Today), forecast to rise 0.3% (median 0.2%), while PCE is seen unchanged (median 0.1%) and core PCE prices up just 0.1%. Markit PMI manufacturing is also due, along with January ISM set to tick up to 48.5 (median 48.0) vs 48.2 and construction spending is expected to snap back 0.6% in December from -0.4% previously. There’s just lonely vehicle sales (Tuesday), projected to rise 1.6% to 17.5 mln units in January. MBA mortgage data returns (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey, seen rising 190k in January vs 257k in December. Markit PMI services is also on tap, along with ISM Non-Manufacturing set to hold static at 55.3 in January. Preliminary Q4 productivity may slump to 2.5% (median -1.8%) compared to +2.2% in Q3 (Thursday), driving unit labor costs up sharply to 5.7% from 1.8%. That leaves factory goods orders set to skid -3.0% in December (-2.7% median) vs -0.2%.
  • Canada: economic data is concentrated on the final day of the work week: Friday will see the release of January employment, December trade and the Ivey PMI for January. The employment report is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in January employment after the 22.8k rise in December. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.1%, matching the rate in December. The trade balance is expected to narrow to -C$1.6 bln in December from -C$2.0 bln in November. Exports are seen rising 0.5% m/m in December after the 0.4% gain in November. Imports are expected to fall 0.3% m/m in December after the 0.7% drop in November. The Ivey PMI is projected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 51.0 in January from 49.9 in December. Results that match expectations across these reports, notably for employment and trade, would underpin the BoC’s decision to hold rates steady last month. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week, with BoC Deputy Governor Lane’s speech on February 8th the next appearance from a bank official. 
  • Europe: The data calendar this week should not challenge the rate outlook substantially. Confidence indicators have been coming off, but still remain at relatively high levels and the final readings of Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs for January are unlikely to hold real surprises, with the manufacturing reading (today) expected to be confirmed at 52.3 and the services reading (Wednesday) at 53.5, leaving the composite at 53.6 (medians same), down from recent levels, but still pointing to ongoing robust expansion. German manufacturing orders (Friday) meanwhile are expected to correct -0.7% m/m (median -0.5%) from the strong 1.5% m/m rise in December. Markit said companies are sitting on a large amount of unfulfilled orders, which should keep production and employment growth going even against global headwinds. The German sa jobless number (Tuesday) is seen falling 9K, leaving the sa jobless rate unchanged at a very low 6.3% (medians same). The labour market is improving not just in Germany and the overall Eurozone December unemployment rate (Tuesday) is expected to fall to 10.4% from 10.5%. The Eurozone data calendar also has retail sales and producer price inflation for December as well as Italian preliminary HICP rates for January. Supply comes from Spain, France and Germany, with the latter auctioning 5-year Bobls on Wednesday. Apart from Draghi’s presentation on Monday ECBspeak comes from Constancio and Knot among others and the ECB’s economic bulletin is due Thursday. 
  • United Kingdom: The January manufacturing PMI survey (today) gets the ball rolling. We expect an ebb to a 51.6 reading (median 51.8) from December’s 51.9. This would fit the picture painted by the CBI’s industrial trends survey for the same month, reaffirming the weak-link status of the manufacturing sector in the UK economy. The construction PMI (Tuesday) is seen dipping to 57.5 (median same) from 57.8, and the services PMI (Wednesday) has us expecting a 55.4 outcome (median 55.2), slightly off the 55.5 reading of the previous month. This would leave the composite PMI at 55.0, down from 55.3. December lending data from the BoE has us anticipating a capping out in mortgage approvals to 69.6k, down from 70.4k in November. Unsecured consumer lending, and non-finance business lending will also interest.
  • China: China’s manufacturing sentiment remained contractionary in January, as expected. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 from 49.7 in December. The erosion leaves the lowest reading since the official survey fell below 50.0 in August of 2015. The privately complied Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI improved to a still weak 48.4 from 48.2 in December. The Caixin/Markit survey has been below 50.0 since February of 2015, seeing a record low of 47.2 in September of last year. The Caixin/Market January services PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 50.1 from 50.2. India’s RBI meets on Tuesday, and is expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%. South Korea December trade surplus (today) is seen narrowing to KRW 6.0 bln from 7.2 bln in November, while January CPI (Tuesday) is expected to cool to 1.1% y/y from 1.3% previously.
  • Japan: can be expected to get a lift in sentiment following the BoJ’s shocker move on Friday, though any improvement will not be evident in this week’s light calendar. Final Markit manufacturing PMI (today) sank to 52.3, down from December’s 52.6 and the lowest in three months, but still, at least, indicating growth. Services PMI (Wednesday) will be also of interest. The January flash manufacturing index dipped to 52.4 from 52.6 in December, while the services index slid to 51.5 from 51.6. January consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 42.5 from 42.7, while on Friday, preliminary December leading and coincident indices are due. BoJ Governor Kuroda’s speech (Wednesday) will be closely followed after last week’s action.
  • Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the RBA meeting (Tuesday). The Bank left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and we expect no change in the rate setting this week. The bank releases the Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday), which will include updated growth and inflation projections. As for economic data, the December trade deficit (Wednesday) is seen at -A$2.5 bln compared to the -A$2.9 bln shortfall in November. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to bounce 5.0% m/m in December after the 12.7% drop in November. Retail sales (Friday) are seen expanding 02.% m/m in December after the 0.4% gain in November.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 01.29.2016

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

German retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m in December. November was revised up to 0.4% m/m from 0.2% m/m reported initially. Official retail sales numbers are volatile and subject to frequent and sharp revisions and only cover less than 50% of consumption, so the negative number is not necessarily a sign of falling consumption. On the contrary, consumer confidence remains higher, the labour market is robust and low oil prices are freeing up real disposable income, which will keep consumption and domestic demand supported.

French prel Q4 GDP decelerated to 0.2% q/q from 0.3% q/q in the previous quarter, in line with expectations. The annual rate came in a tad higher than expected at 1.3% y/y. The French economy continues to be hampered by structural issues and survey indicators show that the Eurozone’s second largest economy will continue to underperform.

Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduces negative interest rates. The BoJ said it will apply a rate of negative 0.1% to excess reserves that financial institutions place at the central bank with effect from February 16. The BoJ will apply a three tier system to accounts with a positive, zero, or negative interest rate on each tier. The bank’s asset purchase program was left unchanged and the BoJ did not set a lower limits on yields of bonds purchased, which means even longer dated maturities may follow short rates into negative territory. The bias remains dovish. The BoJ said the Japanese economy has recovered mostly, with underlying inflation moving higher but stressed that recently “global financial markets have been volatile against the backdrop of the further decline in crude prices and uncertainty such as over future developments in emerging and commodity exporting economies, particularly the Chinese economy”. “For these reasons, there is an increasing risk that an improvement in the business confidence of Japanese firms and conversion of the deflationary mindset might be delayed and that the underlying trend in inflation might be negatively effective”.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • EU Consumer Price Index: The headline figure is out today and is expected to come in at 0.4%, a 0.2% change from the previous number.
  • US GDP: The first release on Q4 GDP should reveal a 1.0% (median 0.8%) headline which would follow 2.0% in Q3 and 3.9% in Q2. We expect a $40 bln inventory subtraction coupled with a flat rate in fixed investment spending to hold down the headline. Consumption spending is expected to slow as well, although less dramatically to a 1.9% clip from 3.0% in Q3.
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The second release on January Michigan Sentiment is out today and should reveal a 93.5 (median 93.1) headline following 93.3 in the first release and 92.6 in December. Other confidence measures have improved for the month with the IBD/TIPP poll ticking up to 47.3 from 47.2 and consumer confidence rising to 98.1 from 96.3. Apart from this, Michigan Sentiment displays a tendency towards upward revisions in the second release.
  • US Chicago PMI: January Chicago PMI is out on Friday and is expected at 44.0 from 42.9 in December and 48.7 in November. Already released measures of January producer sentiment have weakened and the remaining releases look poised to remain depressed in January. We now expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to fall to a cycle-low 49 after holding at 50 since September.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 01.28.2016

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

FOMC obviously left the funds rate range unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%. It downgraded the outlook on growth and inflation slightly, tacitly acknowledging the various risks that have cropped up since the last meeting. But the statement wasn’t necessarily as dovish as the markets had hoped. The statement did repeat that global economic and financial developments are being closely monitored. The labor market continues to improve though net exports and inventory investment slowed. Of note, the Fed dropped the phrase that it is “reasonably confident” that inflation will reach the 2% target over the medium term. And it left out the balance of risks. The tone of the statement did not take a March hike off the table (that wasn’t really going to be the case) and it gives policymakers leeway to hike again in March. The vote was a unanimous 10-0.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.50%, matching widespread expectations. However, they took a dovish tact, saying “Some further policy easing may be required over the coming year to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range.” The evolution of the economic data is key, with the bank concluding “We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” Recall that in December, when the rate was cut 25 bps, Wheeler was more balanced, saying the bank’s inflation objective could accomplished at the current (2.50% ) rate setting, while also assuring the bank will reduce rates further if needed. As for the New Zealand dollar, he opines that “A further depreciation in the exchange rate is appropriate given the ongoing weakness in export prices.”

Possible Russian coordination with OPEC was discussed at a meeting with Russian oil companies, according to a Reuters report citing the Russian Energy Ministry, which was related to unfavorable oil prices. There were similar noises yesterday about Iraq and Russia, but this seems to be adding amplitude to the oil rebound now and helping putting a bid in equities and dollar-yen.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • German Prel Jan HICP is seen rising to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y, mainly due to base effects. This is likely to be mirrored by a similar rise to 0.4% y/y in the overall Eurozone number tomorrow. Still very low levels and far below the ECB’s definition of price stability.
  • EMU ESI: We had been looking for a modest decline in the European Commission’s ESI Economic Sentiment reading for the Eurozone to 106.6 (med 106.5) from 106.8, but after the weaker than expected Ifo earlier in the week and the weak Italian business confidence numbers yesterday the risk clearly is to the downside.
  • UK Domestic Product: the UK GDP numbers are out today and are expected to come in at 0.5% (previous 0.4%) QoQ and 1.9% (previous 2.1%) YoY.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims: are expected to be 280k in the week-ended January 23. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,195k for the week-ended January 16.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 01.27.2016

Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Australia Q4 CPI came in a little hotter than expected, rising to 0.4% q/q, above the median forecast for 0.3%. This contrasted last week’s NZ inflation for the same period, which under shoot expectations in falling to 0.1% q/q, propelling AUDNZD to a seven-week peak at 1.0870. The CNY remained steady, while Chinese December data showed industrial profits contracting in December while consumer sentiment ticked up. Moody’s said that Beijing’s policy support in the pursuit of growth in 2016 will have a credit-negative effect of postponing deleveraging and the reduction of excess capacity.

German Feb GfK consumer confidence steady at 9.4, better than expected with Bloomberg consensus predicting a slight decline in the headline number. The full breakdown, available only until January, showed a further improvement in economic expectations to 4.2 rom 2.9 in the previous month, and a marked rise in the willingness to buy, despite a dip in income expectations. This is likely related to a renewed decline in the willingness to save, which is hardly a surprise considering the low interest rate environment. With the government trying to urge consumers to build up private pension portfolios, this can also have negative long term consequences, however, even if for now the numbers suggest ongoing support from consumption to domestic demand and overall growth. Price expectations remain firmly in negative territory, but are unchanged from the previous month.

China industrial profits sank 2.3% y/y for the Jan-Dec period according to China’s Statistics Bureau, while December industrial profits fell 4.7% y/y due to high costs and tight liquidity curbing companies’ production and operations. Though interest rate cuts had a positive effect in reducing companies’ operating costs, weak demand caused slow growth in production and sales in 2015. That contrasted 3.3% growth in 2014. This is about par for the course after GDP growth slowed to 6.9% last year.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: the oil inventories are expected to have decreased to 3.452 M from 3.979M. Yesterday The Wall Street Journal reported that Petroleum Institute data showed crude oil inventory had a larger than usual weekly build. This contradicts the consensus expectation.
  • US New Home Sales: December new home sales are out Wednesday and should reveal a 2.0% headline increase to a 500k (median 505k) pace after the 4.3% November climb to 490k. Other housing measures have been mixed for the month with starts easing to 1,149k from 1,179k in November and existing home sales climbing 5.460 mln from 4.760 mln.
  • The FOMC meeting: FOMC began its meeting yesterday, and will release its policy decision today at 14:00 ET. The Fed won’t announce another rate hike after last month’s liftoff. And there’s unlikely to be any explicit forward guidance in terms of the March meeting. It will be important, though, to gauge the tone of the policy statement for clues on the timing of the next move. We doubt the Committee will follow the more dovish lead from the ECB, BoJ, and BoE. However, the poor start to 2016 for equities and commodities, the downward revisions to global growth, and the likely delay in inflation reaching the 2% inflation target could give weigh on the confidence of the more dovish policymakers.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD for 01.25.2016

The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

  • United States: There are a number of important indicators due, including housing figures, PMIs, durables, and trade. But the Advance Q4 GDP print (Friday) may be the most interesting amid global worries over a worldwide slowing in growth. We are forecasting slippage to a 1.3% pace (median 0.8%), from Q2’s 2.0%, with erosion in consumption, fixed investment, and an inventory drawdown weighing. The November Case-Shiller and the FHFA home price indexes are slated for Tuesday, along with January consumer confidence and the Markit services PMI. New home sales for December (Wednesday) are forecast rising to 0.500 mln. The usually volatile durable goods report (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.5% following the unchanged November print. Also on Thursday are weekly initial jobless claims and December pending home sales. Along with GDP on Friday, there’s the report on Advance trade in goods, Q4 ECI, the January Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.
  • Canada: In Canada, the economic calendar moves to the slow lane this week after last week’s thrill ride of dueling projections for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) announcement and the full slate of November growth data and the December CPI. We receive the final word on November’s total growth performance, with November GDP (Friday) seen expanding 0.3% after the flat reading in October. The industrial product price index (Friday) should reveal a 0.5% drop (m/m, nsa) in December after the 0.2% drop in November, as weaker energy and commodity prices weigh. Further deprecation in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar could provide a boost to the IPPI however, and is the main upside risk to our projection. Meanwhile, the IPPI is expected to post a 0.9% y/y rate of increase in December after the 0.2% drop in November. A difficult comparison with a sharply lower December of 2014 index level is to blame. The report will not challenge the BoC’s view that the underlying inflation backdrop remains tame as the economy operates below potential output. The January CFIB Business Barometer small and medium business outlook survey is due (Thursday), which will provide an early look at conditions in the new year. The Bank of Canada takes a breather from events this week. Nothing is on the docket until February 8, when Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech in Montreal. 
  • Europe: Data releases this week will bring more economic sentiment data as well as preliminary January inflation numbers. The latter should show an uptick in headline rates, but even if the overall Eurozone HICP number will rise to 0.4% y/y (med same) as expected, it would still remain at very low levels and far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. The overall EMU CPI number on Friday will be preceded by preliminary German HICP on Thursday, seen also rising to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y and preliminary French readings (Friday), expected to show a rise in the headline rate to 0.5% y/y from 0.3% y/y. We were looking for a dip in the German Ifo Business Climate reading (today) to 108.5 from 108.7 but the actual figure was even weaker and came in at 107.3. We also expect to see a decline in the ESI Economic Sentiment (Thursday) to 106.6 (med 106.5) from 106.8. Inflation projections may be revised down, but interestingly, so far growth projections have been left largely untouched, highlighting that it is the falling oil prices that is having the largest impact on price developments once again. Finally German GfK consumer confidence is seen falling to 9.3 from 9.4. With the focus firmly on future world growth GDP readings for Q4 2015 should not change the ECB’s stance significantly, but preliminary French and Spanish data on Friday will still attract some attention and we are looking for growth rates of 0.2% q/q and 0.8% q/q respectively. Data releases also include Eurozone M3 numbers on Friday, French consumption, Italian orders and business confidence, German retail sales and import price inflation. 
  • United Kingdom: The calendar this week features the January CBI surveys, for industrial trends (today) and distributive sales (Friday), the first estimate of Q4 GDP (Thursday), and the January Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday). The data are collectively likely to fit the later-rather-then-sooner view with regard to the BoE’s course to rate lift-off after a near seven-year hiatus. We expect the CBI’s industrial trends survey to dip to -10 (median same) in the headline total orders balance, down from -7 previously. The CBI’s sales survey has us anticipating an +18 outcome in the headline realized sales balance, slightly off the +19 outcome seen in the prior month. We expect Q4 GDP to lift to 0.5% q/q (median same) from 0.4% in Q3, and Gfk sentiment to dip to 1 from 2.
  • China: China’s calendar is virtually empty, with just leading indicators that are due on Thursday.
  • Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by CPI (Wednesday), expected to slow to a 0.2% pace in Q4 (q/q, sa) from the 0.5% rate of expansion in Q3. CPI is seen running at a 1.5% y/y pace in Q4, matching the growth rate in Q3. Core inflation measures are seen as slowing slightly: The trimmed mean is expected to slow to a 2.0% pace in Q4 from 2.1% in Q3 while the weighted median is projected at a 2.1% y/y pace in Q4 from 2.2% in Q3. Trade prices are also due (Thursday), with import prices expected to fall 1.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 1.4% gain in Q3. Export prices are projected to tumble 3.0% in Q4 after the flat reading in Q3. The RBA is on the final week of its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the new year. The modest slowing projected in total and core CPI measures for Q4 would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting.
  • Japan: The BoJ meeting highlights Japan’s busy calendar. While we expect the Bank will remain in “wait and see mode” until March at the earliest, the slowing in its giant neighbor and the disinflationary effects of weaker oil prices and a stronger yen, could accelerate further easing moves. And this week’s data will be important for policymaker deliberations. The calendar kicks off with the December trade report, that showed country’s exports fell by 8% in December. November revised leading and coincident indices were also published today, both declining slightly from the previous number. December services PPI (Tuesday) is seen slipping to a 0.1% y/y rate from 0.2% in November. December total retail sales (Thursday) are forecast to have rebounded 0.1% y/y from a revised 1.1% drop in November, while large retailer sales are seen up 0.1% y/y from the prior revised dive of 1.6%. The remainder of the calendar is due Friday. December national CPI is expected to slow slightly to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% on an overall basis, and remain steady at 0.1% y/y on a core basis. January Tokyo CPI is seen unchanged y/y overall, matching the December outcome, and up 0.1% y/y on a core basis, also unchanged from the previous month. December unemployment should remain flat at 3.3%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is also seen steady at 1.25. December personal income is due, as is December PCE, with the latter expected to improve slightly to -2.6% y/y from November’s -2.9% reading. Preliminary December industrial production is penciled in at -0.5% y/y from -0.9%, while December housing starts are seen easing to 0.7% y/y from 1.7%. December construction orders are also on the docket.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.