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Macro Events and News for 01.22.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events and News

FX News Today

Euro weakness and commodity currency strength has been the central theme in forex markets in the wake of the ECB’s dovish guidance yesterday. The biggest mover has been the Russian rouble, which is up 3% against the dollar, and by more than this versus the euro as a 4%-plus rebound in oil prices sparked a rebound from record lows. EURAUD, EURNZD and EURCAD are also down notably today. AUDUSD climbed back above 0.7000 for the first time in eight days. EURUSD has remained above yesterday’s post-ECB low at 1.0777, but has remained heavy, giving back most of the rebound gains to 1.0900 in unraveling to the low 1.08s. The yen has mostly traded lower, except in the case against the euro, as its safe haven premium unwound. Japanese stock markets led Asian markets higher, closing 5.88% for the better — its second biggest one-day gain in the last five years, according to Bloomberg.

Draghi gave markets what they wanted, a clear hint that the ECB may extend easing measures further in March when the QE program will be reviewed again and Draghi highlighted that this move towards an easing bias, was adopted unanimously, which means it is also backed by Bundesbank President Weidmann. Draghi said in the introductory statement that the downside risks that emerged since the start of the year mean that there is the “need to review and possibly reconsider” the policy stance in March, when the next set of forecasts are available. In the Q&A session he was keen to highlight this part of the statement, which confirms that Draghi’s message to markets is that the ECB can and will do more if necessary. The question is what the ECB can still do – and Draghi didn’t go into detail when quizzed about that, just reiterated again that the ECB is willing to use all “instruments available”. So we could see a further QE extension and in particular an extension to other papers, as the pool of eligible assets is limited under the current structure of QE.

BoC Outlook: Rate cut bets that were unfulfilled have been moved ahead to March and April, according to Bloomberg, which cities futures pricing in roughly 50% odds for a cut by April. The  spotlights the contrast between the Bank’s optimism and the increasingly weaker domestic growth outlook. To review, the BoC’s lack of cut day before yesterday was accompanied by a still constructive growth outlook. Granted, 2016 GDP was slashed to 1.4% from 2.0%, but the return to full capacity growth was only delayed to the end of 2017 from 2017. We see a 1.3% growth rate in 2016, but downside risks abound.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • EMU PMI:We are looking for broadly stable PMI readings in January, with the Eurozone manufacturing reading seen steady at 53.2 (med same) and the services reading to 54.1 (med 54.2). Even German ZEW investor confidence, which naturally is much more sensitive for market moves, came in somewhat better than expected and French national business sentiment yesterday also showed a slight improvement. With Draghi sending the ECB on course for further moves in March, even a better than expected PMI reading may have limited impact, although it would underpin the recovery in stock markets.
  • Canada CPI Preview: We expect CPI to expand at a 1.8% y/y pace in December (median +1.7%), accelerating from the 1.4% rate in November. CPI is seen falling 0.3% month comparable basis in December after slipping 0.1% in November. Gas prices fell 5.0% in December compared to November, which is expected to weigh on month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen falling 0.2% m/m in December after the 0.3% drop in November.
  •  US Existing Home Sales Preview: December existing home sales data is out Friday and should reveal a 11.3% headline increase to a 5.300 mln (median 5.120 mln) pace following the 10.5% drop to 4.760 mln in November.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS AND NEWS for 01.21.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events and News

FX News Today

The risk roller-coaster resumed in Asia where shares snapped back after Wall Street cut savage Wednesday losses into the close, with Japan’s Nikkei up 1.5% and Hong Kong Hang Seng +1.3%. China’s Shanghai Comp opened over 1.4% lower before rebounding 0.6% into the green after the PBoC injected a heavy dose of 110 bln yuan via 7-day reverse repos and 290 bln via 28-day reverse repos in the largest open market operation in 3-years. Commodities bounced back with crude oil back over $28 bbl, while copper and other industrial metals strengthened. The yen gave up some of its new-found strength as the dollar rose above 117.00 to highs of 117.47, while gold retreated below $1,100.

The 0.111% December US CPI drop with a lean 0.127% core price increase undershot estimates despite the expected 2.4% energy price slip and 0.2% food price decline thanks to a 0.2% apparel price drop that marked a fourth consecutive decline, a 0.1% new vehicle price dip, and a lean 0.1% medical care service price rise.

US housing starts declined 2.5% to 1.149 mln in December following the 10.1% jump in November to 1.179 mln (revised from 1.173 mln), while October’ pace was boosted to 1.071 mln from 1.062 mln. On an annual basis starts are up 6.4% y/y versus 17.1% y/y previously. Single family starts declined 3.3%. Multifamily starts slid 1.0%. Building permits fell 3.9% to 1.232 mln from a revised 1.282 mln (was 1.289 mln). Housing completions bounced 5.6% after two months of declines. The headline starts figure is disappointing, which won’t help investors’ shaky mindset.

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady and maintains constructive Outlook: The Bank of Canada held rates steady at 0.50%, maintaining their constructive view on domestic growth as the ongoing adjustment to lower oil and commodity prices is facilitated by already implemented rate cuts and the decent in the loonie. The outlook for global and domestic growth was cautiously upbeat. Our base case remains for no change in rates through year end, although a continuation of rock-bottom oil prices will keep the conversation skewed toward the possibility of another reduction as soon as March.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • ECB: Draghi likely to take wait and see stance for now,in line with other central banks. Even the doves at the ECB seem to think it is too early to react to the rout in global markets and that one needs to wait if current trends continue or if things settle down again. But even if the ECB is likely to stay on hold for now, Draghi will be very eager to keep the door wide open to additional measures later on and the tone of the press conference will almost certainly be more dovish than in December. The sharp drop in oil prices in particular will be a focus, but also the fact that Eurozone spreads are widening sharply again in line with the pickup in risk aversion, which highlights that the risk of a renewed flaring up of the Eurozone debt crisis has not been banned yet. March will be the next date to focus on as that will bring the updated set of staff projections. 
  • US Philadelphia Fed Index: January Philly Fed is expected to improve to -7.0 (median -5.5) from -10.2 in December and -5.7 in November. This compares to the already releasedEmpire State index which plunged to -19.4 in January from -6.2 in December. Overall, we expect producer sentiment to trend sideways in January with and ISM-adjusted average of all major measures holding at 50 where it has remained since September. 
  • US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of January 16th are out today and are expected to show a decline to a 269k (median 272k) headline from 284k in the week prior. There is some downside risk to the release as post-holiday layoffs occur. January claims look poised to average 271k for the month, down from 277k in December.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 01.20.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

U.S. oil in Asian trade fell to its lowest since September 2003, below $28 a barrel. Crude Oil prices continue to drop as oversupply is seen as a driver for the recent low prices.

Asian stock markets fell sharply overnight, led by hefty 3.71% declines in the Nikkei 225 and a 3.82% drop in the Hang Seng Index. This followed a new selling phase in oil markets.

The JPY has continued to gain strength and has been a currency over performer in recent trade as the fight to safety trade resumes in the wake of the troubled equity markets. At the time of writing, the JPY is trading higher against the USD by 1.14%.

Today, the economic calendar has some key data from the U.S. and Canada, US CPI, and the BoC rates decision are due later today. For the US, the CPI is expected to improve to 0.8% and for Canada, a rate cut is now partially priced in and the potential for the CAD to strengthen if BoC fails to deliver a rate cut remains an upside risk.

European markets are waiting for tomorrow’s ECB meeting; however, the European central bank is widely expected to keep policy unchanged. Traders will look to hear if Draghi delivers a dovish press conference that will keep the door open to further easing.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German PPI inflation: Rose to -2.3% y/y in December, from -2.5% y/y in the previous month. This was in line with analyst forecast. The headline rate remains firmly in negative territory and even the ex-energy rate is negative at -0.6% y/y although slightly higher than the -0.7% y/y rate in November. All in all though no sign of a turnaround, especially as oil prices slumped since the end of last year and the data will only add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB for additional easing measures, even if Draghi is likely to take a wait and see stance for now.

• USD U.S. CPI: December CPI data is out today and analyst expect the headline to remain unchanged (median unchanged) with the core measure up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective November figures of unchanged for the headline and 0.2% for the core. The continuation of declines in oil prices has weighed on recent price measures and will likely continue to do so in the CPI release.

• CAD Canada Wholesale: Analyst expect wholesale shipments, due today, to rise 0.5% in November, breaking the string of monthly declines from July to October. Moreover, as gain for wholesale shipments and manufacturing shipments would be supportive of a bounce in November GDP following the flat reading in October and the 0.5% plunge in September.

• Canada Manufacturing: Analyst expect shipments, due today, to rise 0.7% in November after the 1.1% drop in October. A 0.4% gain in export values provides a compelling reason to forecast a move higher in November manufacturing shipments. Notably, the gain in exports followed three straight declines (Sep, Oct, Nov) that correspond with the downtrend in manufacturing shipments.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS AND NEWS for 01.19.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events and News

FX News Today

The yen is weaker amid improved risk appetite, while commodity currencies have firmed. This comes with oil and most other commodity prices gaining over 1% in the Asia session, and with stock markets rebounding, led by 3%-plus advances in the main China indexes. AUDJPY, which is the currency cross most correlative with China market sentiment, is up by 1.3% after Chinese YoY GDP numbers weren’t worse than expected. The AUD, meanwhile, is showing a 0.6% gain, and the CAD a 0.7% rise, against the USD. A further whittling in the yen’s safe haven premium has seen USDJPY climbed over 0.5% to the upper 117s. The EUR is mixed, down versus the USD but up versus the JPY.

China growth was weakest in 25 years, as shown by the latest GDP figures. The Q4 growth disappointed slightly (1.6% instead of 1.7% consensus expectation) and was down by 0.2% from the previous quarter. The year on year GDP change was in line with the expectations at 6.8% but was 0.1% slower than the previous figure.  Chinese government’s transition from infrastructure spending and export oriented economy to a consumer spending oriented economy hasn’t happened as quickly as was expected. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all slowed in December but the overall growth in the Chinese economy is still encouraging.

German Dec HICP was confirmed at 0.2% y/y, the national CPI rate at 0.3% y/y, weaker than originally expected, but in line with preliminary data. National prices were down -0.1% m/m, driven by a 14.5% m/m drop in oil prices and a -4.4% m/m decline in petrol prices. Oil still continues to drive overall inflation trends then and excluding household energy and petrol, the headline rate would have been 1.1% y/y. Still this is down from 1.3% y/y in the previous month and 1.4% y/y in October, which will back the arguments of the doves at the ECB, which already pushed for more easing measures in December against German resistance. The current market rout and the drop in oil prices since then, which lead to even more pressure on Draghi to top up the measures already announced in December.

Main Macro Events Today

  • German ZEW:The January set of confidence readings are likely to reflect the deterioration in global sentiment this year, especially ZEW Investor Confidence, which is seen falling to 9.0 (med 8.5) from 16.1 in December. Together with the ongoing rout on global stock markets and the pressure on oil prices, the numbers will likely see Draghi delivering a dovish press conference on Thursday, even if it seems the ECB will follow the BoE’s example and defer a final judgement of the impact of lower oil prices and slowing growth in China, to the next update of official forecasts and projections, which for the ECB is in March.
  • BoE Governor Speech: Market participants are expecting the governor Carney to shed light on the Bank of England’s future monetary policy. We expect the BoE to hike interest rates by 25bp in Q2 2016, which would take the repo rate to 0.75%. This would be the first policy change since March 2009, and the first tightening since July 2007.
  • US NAHB housing market index: is out today and forecast to rise to 62 in January from 61.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Economic Week Ahead for 01.18.2016

Forex Analysis
The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

  • United States: After the holiday break today (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day), the U.S. economic calendar may offer only limited last-minute insight for the Fed ahead of its policy decision the following week. Not that the markets care, having already priced the Fed out of the picture near-term following the resumption of Asian influenza in the oil and equity markets. The NAHB housing market index is forecast to rise to 62 in January from 61 (Tuesday), while CPI is expected to be a tame at unchanged headline and 0.2% core (Wednesday) and housing starts should rise 0.4% to a 1,178k pace in December. The Philly Fed index may rebound to -7.0 in January (median -5.5) vs -10.2 and initial jobless claims are forecast (Thursday) to sink 15k to 269k for the January 16 week. Existing home sales may snap back 11.3% to a 5.3 mln pace in January relative the 10.5% plunge in December (Friday), with the leading indicators is set to dip 0.1% in December from 0.4%.
  • Canada: Economic data features manufacturing and wholesale trade (Wednesday). Those reports will be lost in the glare cast by the BoC announcement later that same day, but will provide another round of clues on how Canada’s economy performed in Q4. We expect a 0.7% gain in manufacturing shipments and a 0.5% rise in wholesale shipments, which would be suggestive of some growth in the total economy after the disappointing stall-out in October GDP. The week ends with CPI and retail sales (Friday). CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.8% y/y pace in December from the 1.4% clip in November, but the pick-up is due to a more difficult annual comparison. CPI is seen falling 0.3% m/m in December, driven by falling gasoline prices. Core CPI is expected to pick-up slightly to a 2.1% y/y clip in December from 2.0% in November, although the index is expected to show a 0.3% m/m drop that is in line with seasonal trends. Retail sales are projected to rise another 0.1% in November after an identical anemic gain in October, with the ex-autos aggregate seen up 0.3% after the flat reading in October. 
  • Europe: Data releases during the week will only fuel the fears of the doves. Final December inflation readings are likely to confirm the German HICP rate (Tuesday) at just 0.2% y/y and the overall EMU HICP number (Thursday) at the same level. Core inflation remains higher at 0.9% y/y, but even this is still far away from the 2% upper limit for price stability and against expectations for an uptick in the headline rate at the end of last year. 
  • United Kingdom: A busy data week looms, which arrives with sterling underperforming and Gilts outperforming as markets push back BoE tightening expectations. We expect data this week will side with this theme, which will includes December inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labour market data, covering November and December (Wednesday), retail sales for December and monthly government borrowing numbers (Friday). We forecast headline CPI at 0.1% y/y in December (median same), unchanged from November. Core CPI is also expected unchanged, at 1.2% y/y (median same). Ebb in economic momentum, renewed energy price declines, and abating wage growth suggests the inflation outlook will remain a benign one for now. Labour data has us expecting an unchanged reading in the official ILO unemployment rate of 5.2% in November (median same). The December claimant count rate is seen rising by 2.9k, down from 3.9k in the previous month. Of particular interest will be average household income, as this is a metric being closely monitored by the BoE. We expect to see a further whittling in wages, to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% and to 1.8% y/y from 2.0% in the ex-bonus reading in data covering the three months to November. We anticipate retail sales to have fallen by 0.2% m/m in December (median -0.3%). The annual comparison is expected at +4.4% after 5.5% growth in the previous month.
  • China: In China, Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is seen at a 6.5% growth rate, slower than Q3’s 6.9% clip, and disappointing the government’s 7.0% projected pace. With all the recent concerns over growth, this data point will have potential to move global markets. The remaining releases all are due on Tuesday December industrial output will be important for the general outlook and expectations are for a 6.1% y/y growth rate, versus the 6.2% seen in November. December retail sales are penciled in at 11.1% y/y from the prior 11.2%, while December fixed investment likely inched down to 10.1% y/y from 10.2% in November. December foreign direct investment is seen sliding to 1.0% y/y from the previous 1.9% pace.
  • Australia: Australia’s calendar lacks nourishing top tier data this week, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) drought continues. However, some second tier economic reports are on the slate: the TD-MI inflation gauge (Monday) and November HIA new home sales (Thursday) may be of some interest. The RBA remains on its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the New Year. As expected data this week would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting.
  • Japan: In Japan, revised November industrial production (Monday) is expected unchanged at -1.0%. The November tertiary index (Monday) is forecast to have fallen 0.7% m/m, after rising 0.9% in October. On Thursday, the November all-industry index is expected at 0.5% m/m from the 1.0% increase seen in October.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 01.15.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Bullard: four rate hikes may still be about right after the strong US jobs number, though inflation remains uncertain. He said that neither the markets nor the Fed are thinking about a January hike, while more information is needed before making a call on March. He would be more inclined to put weight on inflation if expectations continue to decline, though he still thinks the economy is set to grow 2.5-3.0% this year. Bullard doesn’t think the Fed needs to “re-litigate” China concerns, since the country should still grow around 6%. He does see some pick-up in wages beyond inflation and productivity as an indication that the labor market is tight. He doesn’t believe that oil prices need to stabilize before a second Fed hike, though still-weak oil would weigh on the committee’s deliberations. This has a more hawkish overtone relative to his earlier dovish remarks on oil and inflation risks.

The BoE did the expected and kept monetary policy on hold at the January meeting. The voting pattern, which saw a broad majority of 8 in favour of keeping rates steady, with one dissenter, was also as expected. The statement and especially the minutes show, however, that uncertainty is rising. Growth projections as well as near term inflation projections seem to have been revised down already and the doubts concerning the medium to long term inflation forecasts seem to be on the rise as well. The February Inflation Report is likely to bring more clarity.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed big December trade price drops with yet another round of surprisingly big export price declines, and a 7k (seasonally adjusted) initial claims pop that masked a hefty 99k (not seasonally adjusted) increase. The renewed trade price plunge predictably reflects historic declines in energy prices, sharp gains in the value of the dollar, a global growth slowdown, an inventory overhang that is depressing prices, and a shifting supply-demand dynamic in the global petroleum industry that has wacked the factory sector. The initial claims rise likely reflects the ongoing difficulties of seasonal adjustment, though claims have clearly trended higher since early December to remove some of the upside risk that claims have routinely provided for the job growth outlook. We peg January payroll growth at 200k.

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Retail Sales: December retail sales will be released today and should show a 0.1% (median 0.1%) headline increase with the ex-autos component up 0.3% (median 0.3%). This follows November figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.4% for ex-autos. The report faces divergent forces from firm construction data and chain store sales but the slowdown in auto sales and continued declines in gasoline prices will likely weigh.
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on January Michigan Sentiment is expected to show an increase in the headline to 92.8 (median 93.0) from 92.6 in December’s final release. The already released IBD/TIPP poll for January improved slightly with an uptick to 7.3 from 47.2 in December. Gasoline prices continued to decline in December and the first half of this month which could help lift the headline.
  • US Industrial Production: December industrial production is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median -0.3%) decline for the month. This would be the fourth month of consecutive declines, following drops of 0.6% in November, 0.4% in October and 0.1% in September. The December employment report revealed another month of weak data in the mining sector which will likely continue to weigh as oil prices continue to decline. We expect the capacity utilization rate to fall to 76.7% from 77.0% in November.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 01.14.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

German GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% in 2015, from 1.6% in 2014 and in line with expectations. On a working day adjusted basis though, growth slowed to 1.5% from 1.6%, so despite the improvement in the headline number the German economy didn’t quite escape the slowdown in world growth, but both numbers are clear above the long term average of 1.3%. The German statistical office said that growth was relatively broad based across the manufacturing and construction as well as the services sectors. Overall then a solid number, although even in Germany structural issues remain and this year the refugee influx will put a strain on the economy.

ECB lowers Greek ELA ceiling to EUR 72 blnfrom EUR 75.8 bln. The Greek central bank said in a statement that the ECB did not object to lowering the ceiling by EUR 3.8 bln, which reflects an improvement of the liquidity situation of Greek banks amid a reduction of uncertainty and the stabilisation of private sector deposit flows, as well as the progress achieved in the recapitalisation process of Greek banks”.

Fed Beige Book: “mostly positive” was the outlook on future economic growth in the District reports for the January 26-27 FOMC meeting, seeming to supplant the “modest to moderate” mantra that had been in place for more than a year. Labor markets were seen to have tightened further, in four districts along with “flat to moderate” wage pressures, half reporting higher wage pressures for more skilled workers and those positions in short supply. Manufacturing remained weakened, with the declines in commodities/oil, the stronger dollar, and slipping global demand remaining headwinds for most districts (energy sector hurt in particular). Consumer spending was moderate, though credit conditions generally improved, along with growth in loan demand. The Book was prepared by the Philly Fed with data collected before January 4, which wouldn’t include the December payrolls print.

Chicago Fed dove Evans said he pays attention to international developments and how they impact the U.S. economy, noting he will monitor the effects of the decline in China’s growth. We thought he might take this global path on the economic outlook and monetary policy, given his dovish credentials. In addition, he says that the Fed is about as transparent as it can be.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • Bank of England interest rate decision: The BoE policy announcement is widely expected to see the bank leave policy unchanged. We expect the vote also to remain unchanged from last month, with 8-1 in favour of leaving the repo rate at its historic low of 0.5%. Come March, it’ll be seven years that the rate has been at this level and we don’t expect a tightening until later in the year. Last week’s December PMI survey data were sympathetic to the view that the BoE is likely to tighten policy later and it will be interesting to see in the minutes in how far the most recent bout of risk aversion and the slump in oil prices have rattled policy makers.
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: markets wait for Draghi’s views on economic and monetary developments.
  • US Jobless Claims:S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 272k (median 270k) in the week-ended January 9. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,200k for the week-ended January 2. Forecast risk: downward, as layoffs from holiday hiring could boost claims. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikes.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 01.12.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Oil prices are pushing 12-year lows, trading below $31 bbl at the time of writing, as concerns about the global economy push traders into risk-off mode.

Commodity related currencies are under-performing the USD, with the AUD, NZD, and CAD all under pressure.

The U.S. Dow Jones stock markets closed higher on Monday, suggesting that the recent stock market sell off is starting to stabilize.

The EUR attempted to rally back over 1.0900, however failed to keep gains and fell back into the mid 1.08’s with the EURUSD lacking any meaningful direction without any market moving European economic data.

The economic calendar for today does not have any heavy data release on tap, apart from the GBP Industrial Production and the USD November JOLTS job opening survey.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. November Industrial Production: Analyst expected a rise of 0.1% m/m, actual missed , and came in lower at -0.4%.

• USD Fed’s Stanley Fischer to Speak: No commentary

• EUR ECB speak from Praet and Lautenschlaeger: On January 6, 2016 Praet said the following “the ECB stands ready to take all measures that are necessary to bring inflation to 2%. If you print enough money you will always get inflation. Always”. “But if oil and commodities prices tumble, it is more difficult to allow inflation to rise. If a whole series of such factors occur, you can’t do anything other than somewhat postpone the data on which you seek to reach the higher rate of inflation”. “The emergence of bubbles is a justified concern”.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD 01.11.2016

Forex Analysis
The Economic Week Ahead

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: December retail sales (Friday) will be the week’s key data. A very modest 0.1% clip is forecast, with an ex auto gain of 0.3%, versus November 0.2%, 0.3% respective increases. Industrial production is also due and is seen slipping 0.2% in December after a 0.6% November drop, while capacity utilization slumps to 76.7% from 77.0% previously. The latter was the lowest since January 2014. The January Empire State manufacturing index and preliminary consumer sentiment index are also on tap, and will be some of the freshest indicators on the economy. The Empire State index should be little changed at -4.0 versus December’s -4.6. That would be the 6th straight month in negative (contractionary) territory. Consumer sentiment is forecast edging up to 92.8 from the prior 92.6, but the meltdown in stocks to start the year suggest there’s risk of a measurable decline. December PPI will round out the day and readings of unchanged for the headline and +0.1% for the core are forecast following November’s gains of 0.3% for both the headline and core rates. Other data this week includes the November JOLTS report (Tuesday), the Treasury budget for December (Wednesday), and trade prices (Thursday). The job openings report should reflect the ongoing firmness in the labor market. The Treasury is seen announcing a $4 bln budget deficit for December, compared to a $1.9 bln surplus last year. Import prices are expected to tumble 1.4% in December after the 0.4% November dip as weak oil prices remain a big drag. Export prices should drop 0.5% after the prior 0.6% decline.  And, it’s Q4 earnings season again and damp profit reports or negative outlooks could keep equities on the back foot. Alcoa kicks off today after the market close.

Canada: Canada’s calendar is front loaded this week, with the Bank of Canada’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey and December housing starts due today. The Outlook Survey is expected to show a modest improvement in sentiment, with the future sales growth measure projected to rise 4.0 points to 20.0 in Q4 after bouncing 8.0 points to 16.0 in Q3. Look for an ongoing divergence between firms that are directly or indirectly tied to the recourse sector and those firms that are not. Housing starts are projected to slow to a 200.0k unit rate in December from the 211.9k clip in November. Additional housing figures are out later in the week: The December Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday), the November new housing price index (Thursday) and December existing homes (Friday) are all expected to reveal ongoing regional divergence. Events are lacking from the Bank of Canada until the announcement and Monetary Policy Report on January 20. We expect no change in rates alongside a modest reduction in the growth outlook that leaves the expected gradual recovery in place over 2016 and 2017.

Europe: This week’s data releases won’t change the ECB outlook much. There are a bunch of final inflation numbers from Italy, Spain and first releases from France, Ireland and Portugal, but with overall Eurozone numbers already released these are unlikely to attract too much attention. The same holds for Eurozone trade data and even Eurozone industrial production, which are too backward looking to change the outlook. Germany will release the first estimate of full year 2015 GDP data on Thursday, which we see at 1.7%, up slightly from the 1.6% in 2014. Events include a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday and Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings, with Brexit talks and the refugee crisis still high on the political agenda in Europe.

United Kingdom: The UK data agenda this week is relatively quiet.  Industrial production figures (Tuesday) has us expecting a 0.1% m/m rise in November.  The December BRC retail sales survey (also Tuesday) should be robust. The calendar is highlighted this week by the monthly BoE MPC meeting (Thursday).  We expect the vote to remain unchanged from last month, with 8-1 in favour of leaving the repo rate at its historic low of 0.5%.

China: China’s calendar this week is light. December trade report is due Wednesday, and is expected to reveal a narrowed surplus of $50 bln, as compared to November’s $54.1 bln.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the employment report (Thursday), which is expected to reveal a 30k pull back in December after the 71.4k surge in November that strained the credibility of the report. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.0% in December from 5.8% in November. Housing investment (Friday) is seen falling 1.0% m/m in November after the 0.5% dip in October. ANZ job ads (today) are projected to slip 0.5% in December after the 1.3% bounce in November. The RBA remains on its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar.

Japan: In Japan, the November current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to JPY 1.00 tln from the previous 1,458.4 tln. December bank loans (Tuesday) are expected up 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, while December consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely ticked down to 42.5 from 42.6. November machine orders (Thursday) are forecast to fall 9.0% m/m after a 10.7% gain in October. Finally, December PPI (Thursday) is seen unchanged at -3.6% y/y.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS for 01.08.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

German trade surplus narrowed slightly in November. Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 19.7 bln in November, down from EUR 20.5 bln in the previous month. German industrial production fell -0.3% m/m in November, an unexpected contraction as strong orders inflow in October and November boosted hopes for a rebound in activity.

Lane: ECB can do more if data shows its necessary. New Irish central bank head Lane, who replaced Hononan, said that even after the adjustment of QE in December “its important to say that no door has been closed. If the data flow over the next number of months is that more needs to be done, more can me done. In other words, it’s now becoming a more normalised instrument that every number of months the analysis can be updated and that if more needs to be done, more can be done”.

Chinese markets opened up in a better mood after authorities suspended circuit breakers overnight prior to their reopening, with the Shanghai Comp opening 2.2% higher and the CSI300 some 2.4% firmer, while the onshore yuan initially rallied to 6.5640 compared to 6.5945 lows on Thursday before quickly backpeddling to the 6.5850 area. It may take a while for the PBoC adviser story to sink in, which called for a 10-15% devaluation of the yuan in a single move along with capital controls. Japan’s N-225 is up some 0.7% to start, but its still early in the session and the U.S. payrolls report looms later.

Fed dove Evans believes a very gradual tightening path is prudent and will help ensure the inflation goal is met, in his speech on Managing the Dots on Monetary Policy. Indeed, his forecast is for a slower pace of hikes than the dot-plot than envisions 4 quarter point moves this year. And, he favors additional accommodation should the economy be hit by an unexpected shock. Slower global growth is offsetting the more positive momentum in the U.S. to some extent, and suggests the funds rate may be headed for a “lower resting point” than has historically been the case. He reiterated there’s no predetermined path of tightening, and the “road ahead may need to be modified” based on incoming data. The 5% unemployment rate is near full employment and indicates the Fed has made great progress, but there’s still some slack in the system, leaving the Fed short of its employment mandate. Evans is not a voter this year.

Bank of Canada Outlook: Poloz maintained a constructive view on Canada’s ongoing adjustment to the terms of trade shock that was wrought by the plunge in oil and commodity prices. On oil, he did not seem concerned over the most recent bout of weakness, saying “adjustments have to happen” and there is nothing policy makers can do about the price of oil.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls: December employment is out on Friday and should reveal a 200k (median 201k) headline that follows a 211k addition in November. We expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.0% (median 5.0%) for a third month. The release faces some upside risk from firm ADP readings, a slight bounce in producer sentiment and continued restraint from initial claims
  • US Wholesale Trade: November wholesale trade data is released Friday and should show sales unchanged (median unchanged) on the month with inventories down 0.1%. This follows respective October figures which revealed a flat rate for sales and a 0.1% decline for inventories. The already released November factory goods data had sales up 0.2%, inventories down 0.3% and orders down 0.2%. Data in line with our forecast would leave the November wholesale I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a fourth month.
  • Canada Employment: We expect employment, to rise 10.0k in December after the 35.7k plunge in November. Canada’s job market has been hit by onetime factors in recent months, which makes for a more challenging than usual forecasting task for December. And education payrolls rose just 6.0k in November after the 3.6k dip in October and 51.3k plunge in September that was the largest on record. Perhaps the make-up for September’s loss will happen in December? An as-expected gain would be welcome news given the recent run of disappointing data, consistent with the BoC ongoing patience on growth.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.