FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, (Nikkei closed flat at 16, 925) U.S. stock futures little changed and U.K. futures slightly higher. Oil prices meanwhile have lifted off lows, but remain firmly below USD 44 per barrel having traded to $43.02 yesterday. Investors are looking ahead to key U.S. jobs data during the European afternoon session, which are hoped to shed some light on the timing of a possible rate hike, although our forecast for a 185k headline increase (median (189k), close to the 3-month average of 190k, might not make a clear case for a September rate hike. The European calendar has Eurozone PPI data for July, as well as the U.K. August Construction PPI, Spanish unemployment numbers and the final reading of Italian Q2 GDP.

US Data Reports: The U.S. ISM drop to a 7-month low of 49.4 from 52.6 in July and a 16-month high of 53.2 in June reversed much of the 8-month climb from the 48.0 expansion-low in December. The ISM sits well below the 59.9 cycle-high in February of 2011, as all the sentiment measures have remained depressed since the oil price plunge starting in Q3 of 2014. U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.0 in the final August reading, versus July’s 52.9, and from the August preliminary print of 52.1. It was at 53.0 a year ago. New orders declined to 52.7 from July’s 54.2, reflecting a slower pace of growth. That led to a weaker pace of hiring, and resulted in a drop in employment to the lowest level since April.

Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Lorretta Mester said the low level of rates is not an effective solution to problems in the labor market, noting that she didn’t share the convictions of protestors at Jackson Hole last week who lobbied for the Fed to resolve racial income and employment gaps through extending low rate policy. She views these as “longer-run issues.” Otherwise, she made no other references to policy timing. She also said the US is basically at full employment and the case for gradual rate increases is pretty compelling, though the Fed is not behind the curve. She also supports including “confidence bands” around the Fed’s forecasts. Note she is a voter this year and there is nothing particularly new or changed in her view.

Waiting for Draghi: The summer is coming to an end and the ECB will have the questionable honour of kicking off this month’s round of central bank meetings. For Draghi the key question is whether the mixed data releases and the still low inflation numbers justify further action or mainly mean that the ECB won’t follow the Fed in its path to a policy normalisation. Unfortunately, the impact of currency moves on the growth and inflation outlook, which in turn also hinge on central bank decisions both in the U.S. and the U.K. will make it difficult for Draghi, who won’t have the benefit of hindsight and has to make his bid ahead of Yellen and Carney.

Main Macro Events Today        

• UK Construction PMI – 08:30 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 46.6 from 45.9.

• US NonFarm Payrolls – 12:30 GMT – Bloomberg, CNBC, and Thomson Reuters Surveys have a consensus for 180k news jobs – There are very wide estimates this month ranging from +125k from PNC Financial to +255k from Societe Generale. The Unemployment Rate is expected to fall to 4.8% and the Average Hourly Earnings is also expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.3%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: European stock futures are higher, following on from a mixed session in Asia, where Japanese bourses managed to move higher in tandem with the Hang Seng after improvements in Japan and China manufacturing PMIs. Mainland Chinese bourses meanwhile were in the red. The U.S. jobs report tomorrow is moving into focus and investors and central bankers look to data for clues on the timing of a possible Fed hike. The ECB meanwhile seems eager to prevent any build up of easing speculation ahead of next week’s meeting and Draghi is still remarkably stumm as the block out period for central bank comments starts. Today’s European calendar focuses on PMI readings, which in the case of the final Eurozone reading is not expected to hold major surprises, while the U.K. number is hoped to lift slightly from the post Brexit slump in July.

Oil & Gold: Commodities under pressure – WTI crude has traded under the $45/bbl mark for the first time since August 15, touching $44.49 lows, as the combination of higher U.S. inventories, and a firm dollar continue to weigh. Bigger picture, an OPEC production freeze is not expected at the September meeting in Algiers, despite recent comments from Iraq’s oil minister, who said he would support a freeze. Loggerheads between Saudi and Iran, who has insisted on bringing its production back to pre-sanction levels, will likely result in no agreement to cap output. Gold dropped to new two-month lows of $1,304.10 from near $1,316.00, on a reported large sale (nominal $4 bln-plus), rumored to be linked to the cutting of a large long position. This may have been the result of the in-line ADP jobs data, and ahead of Friday’s official employment report. A solid NFP outcome on Friday will up the odds for a September Fed rate hike, which would likely weigh heavily on gold prices.

US Data Reports: Revealed an August Chicago PMI drop to 51.5 from 55.8 in July and a 17-month high of 56.8 in June, as these numbers unwind the mid-year auto-retooling boost, while ADP posted a firm 177k August rise after a big July boost to 194k from 179k. For producer sentiment, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 51 from 52 in July but a lower 50 in May and June. The ADP gain signals slight upside risk for our 185k August payroll estimate, given the 20k downside bias in as-reported ADP, alongside upside risk from tight claims and producer sentiment, but downside auto sector risk as sales drop to the 17.2 mln area in August after the July pop to a 17.8 mln rate.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari wants to see core inflation rise and needs more data before considering a rate hike, speaking on DJ News. Sounds like the moderate regional Fed president is still on the dovish side of the fence, though he’s not a voter in this rotation. These comments came from a video interview in which he reiterated calls for too-big-to-fail reforms and said monetary policy is a blunt tool, but offered little else on rate hike timing per se.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Manufacturing ISM  August ISM is out today and is expected to decline slightly to 52.0 (median 52.0) from 52.6 in July and 53.2 in June. Already released measures of producer sentiment for August have been weaker so one to watch at 14:00 GMT.

• US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 27 is out Thursday and should reveal a headline increase to 269k (median 264k) from 261k in the week prior and 262k before that. More broadly, we expect claims to set a higher average in August at 263k from 260k in July. This supports our nonfarm payrolls forecast which we currently have at 185k with a 4.8% unemployment rate for August.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, the Japanese Nikkei 225 close up 0.97% at 16,887, with banks and oil producers leading gains. The Hang Seng is little changed and the ASX down, but mainland Chinese markets are moving higher. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are little changed and FTSE 100 futures are heading south. Oil prices are little changed on the day after the front end WTI future fell below USD 47 per barrel Tuesday amid firm U.S. confidence data as Fed’s Fischer repeated that rate hikes will be data dependent and that the economy is close to full employment. The European calendar has more August inflation data, with the overall Eurozone number now seen steady at 0.2% y/y, after weaker than expected German data yesterday. German unemployment is also seen steady in August, while the July Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.0% from 10.1%.

The USD takes centre stage: The dollar has held firm while the yen has continued to underperform. USDJPY rose for a fourth straight session, this time making a one-month high of 103.22. Yesterday the pair broke and closed above the 50-day moving average at 102.69, which now reverts as support. Most yen crosses have followed, with EURJPY also making a one-month peak, and AUDJPY a two-week high. The weaker yen has been tonic for Japanese stock markets. Increased odds for a September rate hike by the Fed, juxtaposed to the likelihood of further easing by the BoJ at its September 20th-21st policy meeting, have been underpinning USDJPY, which we expect to remain the case in the coming weeks, although Friday’s U.S. jobs report will be a key determiner. EURUSD, meanwhile, has remained heavy in the mid 1.11s, though holding above yesterday’s three-week low at 1.1132. Cable has also remained heavy, on net, with a bounce after an above-forecast reading of the August Gfk UK consumer confidence survey failing to sustain. At -7, this is the second lowest in over two years, while the UK Lloyds business confidence survey fell to a near five-year low of 16 in August, down from 29 in July.

US Data Reports: The U.S. consumer confidence pop to an 11-month high of 101.1 reversed the July drop to 96.7  from 97.4 to leave the measure still-below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015. Despite today’s consumer confidence upswing, the full array of confidence indicators continues to trend sideways in 2016. The Michigan sentiment index fell to 89.8 from 90.0, versus a 98.1 cycle-high last January. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 48.4 in August from 45.5 in July but a similar 48.2 in June, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has risen slightly to a 43.6 average thus far in August from a 43.4 average in both June and July, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. Confidence faces an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce in the second half of 2016 as the inventory unwind and petro-hit to factories diminishes. Yet, confidence faces a political headwind from the highly negative and unsettling tone of the U.S. election campaigns.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer may be out on a hawkish limb on his own, speculates a Bloomberg article that is in line with the muted market reaction to his words overnight compared to the reaction in which he hijacked the Jackson Hole calm following Yellen’s speech Friday. Others such as Bullard and Lockhart have been more circumspect on the “hike or two” front this year, leading some analysts to wonder if Fischer is more of an outlier rather than a shadow Chairman. In January he concluded that four hikes this year were probable, which obviously has yet to be met. Of course, the August payrolls report could be the swing factor for or against a September hike, by Fischer’s own admission.  The next round of Fedspeak will be from doves Rosengren and Evans, who will take part in a closed panel discussion from China ahead of the US open Wednesday, while moderate Kashkari talks about the role of the Fed board. This could slow the USD rise ahead of ADP’s today and NFP data on Friday.

Main Macro Events Today        

• Canadian GDP  Real Q2 GDP, is expected to fall 1.8% after the 2.4% increase in Q1. The temporary halt to oil sands production and the impact on related services that was due to the Fort McMurray wildfire will factor in the Q2 GDP fall. Also, real exports plunged 19.9%, suggestive of a big drag from net exports. Real GDP is expected to rebound 4.0% in Q3 as shuttered production comes back on-line and rebuilding commences in the region.

• Eurozone HICP After yesterday’s weaker than expected German HICP number we have lowered our forecast for the overall Eurozone rate to 0.2% y/y, which would leave it unchanged from July. The Spanish HICP rate rose markedly, to -0.3% y/y from -0.7% y/y, but the Belgian headline rate also ticked lower and the French reading, due early today, is also seen unchanged. Inflation rates are only very gradually moving higher and remain firmly below the ECB’s definition of price stability. With confidence indicators showing that especially the manufacturing sector is waking up to the risks of the Brexit scenario and the impact of drop of the Pound against the EUR, the data will add to the arguments of the doves ahead of the September ECB meeting.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets recovered from yesterday’s drop and are posting broad gains, following on from a positive close on Wall Street and ahead of earnings data from Chinese banks. Japanese markets underperformed after yesterday’s rally and indices have closed flat (Nikkei 16,725) having swung between gains and losses despite a weaker Yen, as data showed retail sales and household spending declined. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while the FTSE 100 future is down on the day after yesterday’s holiday and following losses on other European markets yesterday. Oil prices are slightly higher with the front end WTI future holding slightly above USD 47 per barrel. The calendar is heating up today, with the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator, (see below) as well as preliminary Aug inflation data from Spain and Germany. The U.K. has BoE lending data and money supply figures.

The Yen still in focus:. Chief Japanese cabinet secretary Suga “says government watching markets closely and ready to respond appropriately”. The government is ready to take decisive steps against excessive fx moves. Government and the BOJ “as one” in defeating deflation. Reiterated the BOJ’s independence and confident that Abenomics will exert positive effects and that Japans banks will benefit  in the long term. Markets are not convinced USDJPY struggling to hold rally over 102.10 following comments. Earlier data releases that although better than expected (unemployment at 21 year low of 3.0%) household spending is still very weak and  disappointed.  Even more stimulus to be expected which may be enough to flip USDJPY into buy the dip mode, from sell the rally seen for the past couple of weeks.

US Data Reports: Fed funds futures rallied a yesterday after crashing lower on Friday’s Fedspeak. The concurrent dip in implied rates is suggesting second thoughts about the likelihood of a September rate hike. The Sep contract now reflects about a 36% chance for a 25 bp hike next month, down from 42% at the close. Dec is still showing about a 59.9% risk for a tightening by the end of the year. Mondays PCE price data helped assuage fears for Fed action next month, as the inflation rate continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, there are potential headwinds to the August jobs report, especially from the auto sector, and a tame report would also lessen the potential for an imminent hike. We still believe December is the better bet.

Main Macro Events Today        

• Eurozone ESI  So far, confidence indicators have been very mixed. The German ZEW recovered and preliminary PMIs came in higher than anticipated. But the latter also showed that the manufacturing sector is feeling the sting from the Brexit fallout and the stronger EUR and the German Ifo slumped. Against that that background there are expectations that there will be a slip in the August ESI economic confidence indicator to 104.4 from 104.6 in July, although that would still be a fairly robust level and like the PMIs still signals ongoing expansion.

• German Aug HICP Inflation in the Eurozone is creeping higher and expectations for preliminary August German HICP to move up to 0.5% y/y from 0.4% y/y in July. However, headline rates, but also core inflation remain considerably below the ECB’s target of below but close to 2% and while the numbers at such don’t argue for further easing, they leave Draghi room to maneuver especially as the appreciation of the EUR against the Pound will add to downward pressures going ahead.

• US Consumer Confidence  August consumer confidence is out today and should reveal a slight headline decline to 97.0 from 97.3 in July and 97.4 in June. Other measures of confidence have been mixed so far in August with Michigan Sentiment falling to 89.8 from 90.0 in July but with an IBD/TIPP Poll increase to 48.4 from 45.5 in July.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets are mixed, with Japan closed for a holiday. Chinese markets and Hang Seng are posting modest gains, led by banks and insurers, as investors hope upcoming data will show that China’s economy is recovering. Markets were struggling for direction though, as the focus remains on central bank action. U.S. stock futures are higher, U.K. futures are little changed, while the front end WTI future is slightly down on the day at USD 41.52, after falling yesterday after a big EIA gas draw and crude build. Also overnight Reuters have reported that Kuwait has cut prices to key Asian customers. Most European markets closed in the red yesterday with the FTSE 100 outperforming after the BoE’s latest reverse auction was fully covered. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance fell to 5% in July, while June was revised down to 15% from 16%. Still to come are final inflation numbers for July from France and Italy as well as Swedish inflation data.

RBNZ Governor Wheeler: The Bank acted as expected and the statement and press conference were rather dovish. The NZD is “ defying the Banks expectations” The market is pricing in further easing in policy (more rate cuts) before the end of the year (November most likely).  The NZDUSD rallied on the announcement to break 0.7330 before returning to 0.7250 levels, again defying expectations. The RBNZ is still the most attractive for yield at 2.00%, the USD is weakening and the worries over China continue to ease.

The BoE still in focus: Yesterdays reverse auction may have been fully covered, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t any supply constraints as today’s maturities were shorter than at yesterday’s auction. The BoE bought Gilts dated 2023 to 2030, Tuesday the focus was on durations of 15 years and more and that is where the BoE will likely continue to struggle, as demand at the very long end is high and not just fuelled by investors struggling to find some opportunities for returns, but mainly by insurers and pension funds, who have to hold on to the longer dated papers due to regulatory constraints. So a real test will come at next week’s auction for the Gilts of 15 years and more. Still, Monday’s good auction result, as well as yesterday’s result shows that while the BoE may struggle at the very long end, it still has sufficient supply in shorter dated Gilts to cover its QE program – at least for now and European yields are up from recent0 intraday lows, although the 10-year Gilt is still set to close at another record low. GBPUSD struggles with 1.3000.

US Data Reports: US JOLTS report showed job openings rose 110k to 5,624k in June, rebounding from a revised 331k drop to 5,514k (was 5,500k). That saw the JOLT rate rise to 3.8% from 3.7%. Hirings increased 84k to 5,131k after falling 38k to 5,047k (revised up from 5,036k). The hire rate also increased to 3.6% from 3.5%. Quitters declined, however, falling 33k to 2,909k from after a 33k increase to 2,942k (revised from 2,895k). The quit rate was unchanged at 2.0%. The quit numbers are a favorite of Fed Chair Yellen, so the drop is disappointing, but it’s only one month’s report. The overall data are generally consistent with the improving trends in the labor market, but are old news, however, and shouldn’t have much impact on the markets.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US Import and Export Prices –  July trade price data is out today and is expected to show import prices down 0.6% on the month while export prices remain unchanged. This follows respective June figures of 0.2% for imports and 0.8% for exports. The plunge in oil prices over the winter helped keep these measures in negative territory before the spring rebound allowed increases. However, oil prices eased in July which could pose downside risk to the release.

•  US Initial Job Claims – There were 269,000 new job claims last week; expectations vary between a rise to 272,000 and a fall to 265,000 this week. One to watch for at 12:30 GMT.    

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stocks were mixed, with Hong Kong seeing the highest levels since November last year, amid hopes of a pick up in China’s economy. Nikkei and ASX close down, as did  China’s CSI 300, although other Chinese indices are higher. Oil prices are slightly down on the day and the front end WTI future is holding below USD 43 per barrel, U.K. and U.S. stock futures are down, which on balance points to opening losses in Europe, after broad gains yesterday, as a report from Niesr suggesting economic activity in the U.K. contracted in July with an even chance of a technical recession this year, saw bond futures rising in tandem with stocks on stimulus hopes. Today’s European calendar is pretty quiet, with only French production data as well as inflation numbers from Norway and Portugal.

RBA Stevens: Inflation still the banks major target: Undershooting inflation target with reasonable economic growth might be “least bad” option. Current inflation target regime has flexibility, still useful. Need realism on what monetary policy can do, including pushing up inflation quickly. Hard for monetary policy to revive demand when households so indebted and there is a case for governments to borrow for investment assets that yield economic return. He appears to calling for fiscal stimulus and a slower rates cutting path ahead. AUD continues to rise on comments AUDUSD broke 0.7700 before retracing to 0.7689.

The BoE will make a statement at 8 GMT to explain the shortfall at yesterday’s reverse auction. The Old Lady had attempted to buy GBP 1.17 bln of long-dated Gilts, but only managed to purchase GBP 1.12 bln. Officials have already emphasized that the shortfall was small and occurred in a thin summer market, and Reuters and other media are reporting that The BoE will make a statement at 8 GMT to explain the shortfall at yesterday’s reverse auction. The Old Lady had attempted to buy GBP 1.17 bln of long-dated Gilts, but only managed to purchase GBP 1.12 bln. Officials have already emphasized that the shortfall was small and occurred in a thin summer market, and Reuters and other media are reporting that the central bank is expected to proceed today with the next GBP 1.17 bln tranche of Gilt purchases with 7-15 maturities..the central bank is expected to proceed today with the next GBP 1.17 bln tranche of Gilt purchases with 7-15 maturities.  Low demand not good for GBP.

US Data Reports: US reports revealed robust June wholesale trade figures but a weak Q2 productivity report that was good news on net. For wholesale trade, we saw a 1.9% June sales surge and a firm 0.3% inventory rise after upward May revisions that beat estimates. We still expect a downward Q2 GDP growth revision to 1.0% from 1.2%, but with a $3 bln boost in wholesale inventories that mostly offsets a $4 bln downward factory inventory bump, followed by a 2.6% growth clip in Q3. We saw a surprising 0.5% Q2 productivity contraction rate thanks to firmness in Q2 hours-worked, after revisions back to 2007 that lifted productivity growth in recent years but with hits to productivity, output, and compensation growth in recent quarters.

Main Macro Events Today        

• US JOLTS Job Openings   Expected to rise to 5.52 million from 5.50 million. An important data point as it was created by Governor Yellen whist she was deputy Governor and is close to her heart and one she follows.  JOLTS – (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary).

• RBNZ Rate Decision  21:00 GMT – Widely expected to reduce rates by 25 bps to 2.00%, Policy Statement and Press Conference to follow.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, led by another rise in Japan (+0.69%), where volumes were low, and hopes of BoJ support and the bounce back in oil prices underpinned markets. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also trending higher and the front end WTI future is above highs, but remains above USD 42 per barrel. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected (see more below). This should continue to underpin risk appetite, together with hope of further central bank action not just from the BoE, but also the ECB, which has been put under pressure by the BoE’s bold action. Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bond yields are all at record lows as the ECB heads for a policy review in September. Today’s European calendar still has German trade data as well as U.K. production data for June.

BOE  McCafferty: “Bank rate can be cut further, closer to zero, and quantitative easing can be stepped up” should the UK economic outlook worsen. He believes a more gradual approach should be taken towards monetary policy as information of how the economy has reacted to the June 23 referendum is still very limited. McCafferty has previously opposed raising the target for quantitative easing government bond purchases. Cable broke the key psychological level of 1.3000 on the release of his comments.

Data Reports: Chinese inflation fell to 1.8% from 1.9% last time but better than the expected 1.7%, PPI figures were also a beat coming in at -1.7% from -2.6% last time.

UK July BRC retail sales unexpectedly rose 1.1% y/y in the like-for-like measure, with consumers wallets sharply contrasting to what consumers mouths were saying after the GfK consumer confidence figure for the same month fell by a series record in the wake of the late-June referendum on EU membership. The BRC noted that nothing materially changed for households in the month after the Brexit vote, while summer sales helped entice consumers to spend after a weather-affected 0.5% drop in sales in June. The BRC cautioned that “the big question for retailers is whether that success can be carried forward into full price sales.”

Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 21.6 bln in June, down from EUR 22.1 bln in the previous month, as exports rose a modest 0.3% m/m after falling -1.1% m/m in May, while imports rose 1.1% m/m. June data meant the sa trade surplus widened to EUR 67.8 bln the second quarter of the year from EUR 61.9 bln in the first quarter. This is nominal data of course, which also reflects exchange rate and oil price developments, but nevertheless, the numbers point to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the second quarter, which should help to compensate for the disappointing production drop.

Main Macro Events Today        

US Productivity – The first release on Q2 productivity is out today and should reveal a 0.6% annualized pace for the headline after a -0.6% figure in Q1. Unit labour costs are expected to be 1.4%  from 4.5% in Q1. The first release on Q2 GDP revealed a subdued headline of 1.2% but this was still stronger than the 0.8% pace in Q1.

US Wholesale Trade – June wholesale trade data is also out today and should show a 0.8% increase for headline sales while inventories remain unchanged on the month. This would follow respective May figures of 0.5% for sales and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio ticking down to 1.34 from 1.35 in May and 1.36 in the three months prior to that.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, following the rebound on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is returning as U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains. Positive leads then for European markets head of today’s BoE statement, with the Old Lady widely expected to cut the benchmark rate by 25 bp to a record low of 0.25%. The BoE also releases its updated inflation report, while the ECB publishes the latest economic bulletin. The calendar is quiet otherwise, with only a French bond sale and unemployment data for Greece.

US Data Reports: Yesterday revealed firm July reading for the ISM-NMI and ADP that signal upside risk for Friday’s July jobs report, though we still expect a 180k nonfarm payroll gain. The ISM-NMI slipped to a still-firm 55.5 after a June pop to a 7-month high of 56.5 from a 2-year low of 52.9 in May, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.2, after popping to an 8-month high of 56.3 from a 53.1 two-year low in May. For ADP, we saw a 179k July rise that beat our 170k private payroll estimate with a 180k total payroll increase, and this signals slight upside risk given the downward bias in “as reported” ADP. Yesterday’s vehicle sales figures added to the mix with a 6.7% July surge to a solid 17.8 mln rate, despite mounting growth concerns after last week’s lean GDP data.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Evans said “perhaps 1 rate increase this year is appropriate,” in comments to reporters from Chicago. He wants to make sure that the 2% inflation target is achieved, however, and worries that the risks of not getting there during this cycle could be long-lasting (noting the experience of Japan). He does not believe the 2% goal will be hit until 2018 and thinks it’s worthwhile for the FOMC to wait. The real economy is “doing quite well, especially given all the headwinds.. and uncertainty from abroad,” he added. He projects growth in the 1.0% to 1.75% area this year (we ask, that’s “quite good?”). The natural rate of unemployment is around 4.75%. He doubts the labor market will generate much inflationary pressure. Evans is a long-time dove, but is not a voter this year.

WTI crude: Quickly bounced back to session highs of $41.39 from $39.24 lows, with the rally coming on the back of higher gasoline prices. The much larger than expected draw in RBOB gasoline inventories resulted in that contract rallying overnight. It currently trades at $41.00; the ten day losing streak finally broken.

Main Macro Events Today        

• BOE Preview  – We expect a 25 bp chop of the repo rate, which would dislodge it from 0.5%, where it’s been since March 2009, and put it at a new record low of 0.25%. Other policy measures are possible, though we and most expect the QE program to left in a dormant state, and remain at GBP 375 bln of total of assets accumulated between 2009 and 2012. The BoE has already been injecting liquidity into the banking system. BoE MPC’s Weale, who is by reputation a relatively hawkish member, last week summed up the likely sentiment among fellow Committee members, admitting that the preliminary PMI report for July was “a lot worse than I had thought.”

•  BOE Press Conference –  Mr Carney is normally unflappable and very firm and assertive in the 60 minute press conference.  Todays could be particularly spikey if the Bank is seen not been as assertive as has been widely touted. Mr Carney has mentioned a number of times since the Brexit vote of “necessary adjustments”.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.