Free Forex Analysis for 06.09.2015

June 9, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 06.09.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD moved to a five day high (on a closing basis) at 1.1345 this morning bringing last Thursday’s peak at 1.1379 back into scope, with the May-15 peak at 1.1466 just behind. A run of encouraging data, and perky May inflation data, out of the Eurozone has enabled to the euro to hold ground against the dollar, despite the rekindled Fed tightening narrative following the strong May US payrolls report. The forex market is also taking a sanguine view of Greece’s continuing standoff with its creditors at bailout negotiations. There were fresh reports that the European Commission is trying to look into ways to get Greece some alternative funding that doesn’t require a positive bailout review, but even Juncker is increasingly exasperated with Greece’s hostility towards creditors and their offers. As Greece will have to negotiate further funding beyond the remaining monies from the current bailout, the hard line stance taken by Tsipras and Co is a gamble with Greece obviously banking on the fact that foreign ministers and heads of state, as well as the G7 will eventually value Greece’s strategic position in the south-east of Europe and its importance as a Nato partner more than the fact that continuing Eurozone membership will cost taxpayers elsewhere in the Eurozone dearly, and that without solving the country’s underlying problems.

According to ECB’s Liikanen QE could be extended, beyond September 2016 if needed. We have heard this before, but in the current climate it may go some way to dampen the rise in yields although the official commitment to bond buying it counterbalanced somewhat by the central bank’s very relaxed attitude to the rise in long term yields. Bund futures, which fell into negative territory, are slightly up again on the day, but off opening highs.

EURUSD moved on Friday pretty well according to my script. I said in Friday’s report that the pair was approaching an intraday resistance at 1.1285 and that EURUSD is not likely to rise much higher but will react lower and remain weak. I also said that I don’t expect the pair to move to 1.1006 support today. The pair turned lower from 1.1280, remained weak and moved to the south after NFP figures came out with a big surprise. And price never moved to 1.1006 that day.

Now we’ve seen a rally back into the same resistance area that turned the pair lower Thursday last week. The picture is less clear than on Friday as price has reacted lower from the resistance but has since found buyers at the same region that resisted moves higher on Friday. If prices keeps on making lower timeframe higher lows over the next two to three hours it is likely that buyers try to challenges the daily resistance levels again. Should this fail and price move lower from here the next intraday support would be at 1.1178 after which there are no clear support levels before intraday support before 1.1133. The pivotal daily low from Friday is at 1.1050. This range could be target for intraday shorts. However, if price create a lower daily high at current levels it is more likely that serious buyers are looking to buy EURUSD long between 1.0887 and 1.1006. Daily support and resistance levels are 1.1049, 1.1006 and 1.1324, 1.1380.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

USD, JPY and EUR strength has been the overall theme for this morning but now we are seeing some change with EUR performance getting a bit more mixed and GBP weakening. AUD has been weak while NZDJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY have been among the weakest performers in individual pairs while EURAUD and EURNZD have been strong. NZDJPY is still trading sideways at a daily support and lower Bollinger Bands (20) while AUDJPY is edging closer to pivotal daily candles and the lower end of consolidation range. EURAUD is continuing the uptrend that got boosted when Eurozone core CPI was reported well above expectations at 0.9%.

Main Macro Events Today

Chinese CPI and PPI were released today. CPI fell 0.2% in May from April, below the forecast median of 0.0%, rising 1.2% vs a year-ago May compared to a 1.3% median and 1.5% in April. Food CPI rose 1.6% in May vs a year-ago, while non-food CPI grew 1.0%. PPI sank 4.6% vs year-ago levels, below -4.5% median forecasts, but same as April levels. Overall, this still points to price declines, especially on the producer side, amid ongoing signs of overcapacity and economic slowing.
Eurozone GDP: there was no variation in the actual figures from expectations. Eurozone GDP was expected the second reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP to confirm growth rates of 0.4% q/q and 1.0% y/y respectively. This left the focus on the breakdown but without a major revision, however, the numbers are too backward looking to change the overall outlook for growth and monetary policy.
Swiss CPI for May dipped to a new cycle low of -1.2% y/y, meeting the median forecast and down from April’s -1.1%. The sharp drop into deflation in recent months is largely a consequence of the franc’s 15%-plus appreciation in January when the SNB abandoned its cap. This is troubling to Swiss policymakers, though they will be consoled by last week’s appreciation in EUR-CHF to 10-weeks above 1.0500.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

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Free Forex Analysis for 06.04.2015

June 4, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 06.04.2015

EURUSD, Daily

ADP reported that private payrolls in the US rose 201k in May versus a revised 165k April increase (was 169k). The goods producing sector added 9k, while the service sector jobs rose 192. Construction jobs were up 27k, but manufacturing fell 5k. Financial sector payrolls increased 12k. Professional and business services payrolls were up 28k. Trade and transports added 56k. Headline data are a little better than expected and support forecasts for about a 220k nonfarm payroll gain as our Survey Median projects. Payrolls face upside risk from tight claims and heightened consumer confidence in the face of lower gasoline prices, though downside risk from factory sentiment weakness. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 55.7 in May, weaker than expected, from April’s 57.8. And it is the lowest since April 2014. Declines were broad-based, although index levels still remain relatively high. Fed’s Beige Book reiterated the economy continued to expand, with most Districts characterizing the pace as moderate to modest pace. Maybe not surprisingly given its exposure to the energy sector recession, the Dallas Fed reported slightly slower growth. Most Districts also noted an uptick in consumer spending with outlooks on the future rather positive. Manufacturing activity held steady or increased in most districts while oil and gas activity continued to decline in most areas. Employment was up slightly, as were wages. Prices were stable or ticked up, though some manufacturers reported lower input prices. There isn’t robust support in the report for policymakers to be on the verge of hiking rates.

The ECB left interest rates unchanged at and re-affirmed its commitment to the full implementation of QE despite the fact that inflation projections for this year were revised up. Any tapering of the ECB’s bond purchase schedule still is a way off and any help from the ECB for Greece is tied to a deal with its creditors. The ECB president Mario Draghi said that with low levels of interest rates we should get used to periods of higher market volatility. Draghi also agreed that a long period of low interest rates can cause problems, but added that that shouldn’t necessarily prompt the ECB to change policy. He said the central bank is unanimous in its view to see through short term market trends and keep policy steady and added that recovery is on track, but there has been some loss of momentum. According to Draghi the recovery is developing in line with the ECB’s projections, but the slight loss of momentum is mainly due to countries outside of the Eurozone and trade developments.

The Greek PM Tsipras rejected creditor offer after talks with Juncker and Dijsselbloem. He said “the realistic proposals on the table are the proposals of the Greek government”, adding that “ideas like cutting benefits for low-income pensioners, or raising the VAT rate for electricity by 10% points, can’t be a basis for discussion”. At the same time, he suggested the Commission was more favourable to Greece’s proposals than other creditors. The Commission meanwhile said in a statement that “intense work” will continue and that “progress was made in the understanding of each other’s positions on the basis of various proposals”. So we are not really any closer to an agreement, although Tsipras told reporters not to worry when asked about IMF repayment tomorrow.

EURUSD strength continued yesterday after a pullback to 38.2% Fibonacci level. The 1.1120 intraday support was penetrated so momentarily that it held on closing basis even in 15 min chart. The stops below that support were taken out but then price closed above the support before shooting higher. At the time of writing the pair is trading above 1.1238 intraday support but the upside is getting limited and the risk of downside volatility has grown significantly. As the pair is trading close to a major resistance level market participants are likely to take money off the table and decrease the bids. This makes EURUSD vulnerable. Stochastics is signalling the pair is overbought and the nearest significant daily resistance is at 1.1324 while the next important daily support is as far as 1.1006

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

What goes up, must come down. This certainly applies to AUDUSD this morning. After surge higher and hitting a resistance yesterday AUDUSD created a shooting star candle and is now moving lower. AUD is weak against all the major currencies with AUDJPY being the weakest. At the same time JPY, following BoJ governor Kuroda’s speech, has seen some strength. USD and GBP show some strength while EUR performance is mixed. GBPAUD created a daily hammer candle yesterday and has moved above the yesterday’s high 1.9765. AUDJPY is bearish after breaking below yesterday’s low at 96.25.

Main Macro Events Today

Bank of Japan Governor’s Speech: GovernorKuroda said in a speech that some emerging economies worry that the Fed’s proposed rate hikes, which are seen kicking off later this year, may complicate the their policy management by triggering a massive outflow of capital from their markets back to the United States. The BOJ expanded its massive stimulus last October to prevent the oil rout, and a subsequent slowdown in inflation, from delaying a sustained halt on deflation. Inflation expectations are “obviously” one of the most important channels in which unconventional monetary policy, such as quantitative easing, reflates growth.
Band of England’s Interest Rate Decision is due to today but analyst consensus expects the rate will stay at 0.5%. According to the BoE minutes to the April MPC meeting showed unanimous votes to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% and the QE total at GBP 375 bln, as expected.
US initial jobless claims are expected to be 285k (median 280k) in the week-ended May 30. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,200k for the week-ended May 23. Forecast risk: downward, as there is risk of rebound after recent large declines. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could further delay rate hike expectations.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

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Free Forex Analysis for 06.03.2015

June 3, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 06.03.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The dollar got clobbered in New York session yesterday. The move was led by EURUSD’s fast rise to highs over 1.1190, after opening near 1.1000. Stop loss buying was a key driver of the euro’s rally, with buyers surging in on the break of 1.1010, and again at 1.1100. The move started yesterday as the core CPI figure showed the European inflation jumped to almost 1% and exceeded expectations. I had been looking for EURUSD to turn higher from the support but the strength of the move was surprising. This helped the pair hitting my target level and moving beyond it yesterday.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed a modest underperformance for the factory goods figures for April, but a firm round of vehicle sales figures thus far for May. For the factory report, the equipment and orders data were modestly disappointing. In yesterday’s speech Fed’s Brainard underlined Fed’s approach to be data dependent and was slightly dovish. She said a range of labour market indicators will be watched closely, including wage growth and part-time employment in judging whether the economy is fully healed. This is consistent with her earlier dovish slant and appears to echo the view embraced by Yellen and others that the absolute level of the unemployment rate is not the Fed’s sole consideration in terms of the employment mandate.

Greece will not make IMF repayment if there is no prospect of deal. According to reports on Twitter the parliamentary spokesman of Tsipras’ Syriza coalition said Greece will not make the June IMF payment if there is no prospect of a deal with lenders. Both sides yesterday laid down their own proposals for an agreement, but reports suggest German PM Merkel is not optimistic of a deal before the start of the G7 meeting on Sunday and the first of Greece’s four IMF payments is due on June 5, although the IMF apparently may accept a bundling of repayments and a joint settlement later in the month.

Last Friday (May 29^th) I wrote that if there is no strong decline today the weekly candle is will create a bullish pin bar. In this context the 50 day SMA is a minor resistance and we should see price moving higher next week. This move took place after some consolidation and was then powered by stronger than expected inflation numbers from Eurozone. Now EURUSD has moved above the previous week’s high but also to a level that used to act as a support in May. The higher timeframe picture usually dominates the smaller one and with weekly being so bullish I still expect market will work its way higher over the next two weeks and head towards the upper weekly 20 period Bollinger Bands (currently at 1.1440 and 1.1570). On daily and intraday level it is usual that there is some consolidation after such a strong move higher. We’ve seen this since the pair made the high of 1.1194 yesterday evening. If the pair attracts buyers above 1.1120 (trading now at 1.1131) it is likely that the recent highs will be challenged today. The nearest resistance levels are at 1.1208 and 1.1324 while the nearest daily support level is at 1.1006.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

AUD has been performing well against all the major currencies after the GDP improved so much from the Q4 2014 and yesterday’s rate decision. AUDUSD has now hit a historical resistance level at 0.7800 which has slowed it down and the pair corrected lower. NZD is still weak across the board while especially AUD has moved over 50 basis points against it. We are seeing some GBP weakness across the board with exception of GBP rising slightly against NZD and EUR strength this morning has turned into a mixed performance. The USD is down and JPY’s performance is mixed. At the time of writing AUDNZD is about to challenge the May 12^th high at 1.0895 while AUDJPY is nearing May 14^th high at 97.30. GBPUSD closed yesterday above previous day’s high and created therefore a short terms bullish signal while EURCAD closed above 1.3754 resistance level yesterday.

Main Macro Events Today

Australian GDP grew at a 0.9% pace in Q1 (q/q, sa), much better than expected after the 0.5% gain in Q4. GDP slowed slightly to a 2.3% y/y pace in Q1 from a revised 2.4% clip in Q4 (was +2.5%). The near doubling of the quarterly comparable growth rate is encouraging news given the global cross currents (notably the energy price drop) in Q1, consistent with the expected positive lift to the economy from the RBA’s easing efforts this year. The firm Q1 GDP print trims the chances for further easing this year, consistent with our view that the Bank will maintain rates at the current record low 2.0% policy setting well into next year. AUD-USD jumped to 0.7800 in the wake of the data from 0.7700.
ECB Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: The ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged at the June council meeting, with the announcement today, rather than on the usual Thursday slot. The focus in the press conference will be on comments on Greece and whether the ECB is willing to maintain Greek bank’s lifeline in the form of extended ELA assistance. Draghi may also be quizzed again on demands to lift the ceiling for Greek T-bills and on the possibility of raising the haircut on Greece colletaral, as well as the central bank’s stance in the case Greece defaults on one of its IMF repayments. The forecast revisions may contain an upward move to inflation projections amid signs that the combined impact of stabilising oil prices and a weaker EUR is pushing up annual rates quicker than initially thought. At the same time money supply growth has accelerated sharply. This will likely prompt another re-affirmation to markets that the ECB remains fully committed to the implementation of the QE program to prevent market expectations of policy tapering this year.
US ADP Employment Change for May is forecasted to come in at 200 000. This would mean a healthy correction from April’s figure of 169 000.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

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Free Forex Analysis for 06.02.2015

June 2, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 06.02.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD managed to lift back above 1.0900 after skirting to a 1.0891 low on Monday following above-forecast US data. EURJPY is also trading just off three-week highs, and most other euro crosses are holding firm. A step-up in top-level political pressure at key Eurozone leaders to come up with a bailout deal that would be acceptable to the Greek government has given the euro an underpinning. On the dollar side, the rekindled Fed tightening theme got a minor boost yesterday with above-forecast May PMI and construction spending data. The US ISM May rose to 52.8 and lifted the measure above the 51.5 two-year low in April and May, following a slightly higher 52.9 in February and a lofty 57.9 recent-high in October. The ISM rise included component gains in all but shipments, which implies some abatement of headwinds from the oil-price hit to mining and the inventory overhang, the winter port strike and weather factors that have all impacted the various sentiment surveys since November.

EURUSD moved pretty much as expected yesterday. Market rallied higher from an intraday support level but then turned lower from levels fairly close to 4h 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band. The same intraday support in the region of 1.0904 held again yesterday and the pair is at the time of writing reacting lower after challenging a resistance just above yesterday’s high. If EURUSD can’t push above Friday’s high we are likely to see further consolidation and corrections before price is ready to move higher. The nearest daily support levels are at 1.0887 and 1.0820 while resistance levels are at 1.1006 and 1.1062. Should we get corrections closer that low it’d make sense to look for buy signs of stabilization and signals close to yesterday’s low at 1.0887.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

While USDJPY moved momentarily above 125 for the first time since 2002 it is the AUD that is roaring ahead strongest at the time of writing. Following the RBA’s decision to hold the rates at 2% AUD has been up strongly against everything else with AUDUSD and GBPAUD leading the pack (AUDUSD up and GBPAUD down). AUDUSD has moved above previous two daily highs and has just hit a resistance at 0.7690, while GBPAUD has rolled over and broken a daily uptrend. EUR has attracted money with the exception of EURAUD that is moving lower from a resistance that caused some weakness in the pair already yesterday. GBP has been weak across the board.

Main Macro Events Today

Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 2.00%, matching widespread expectations. Governor Stevens’ statement says the economy continues to grow, but at a below average rate. Hence, the economy is seen operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet, keeping the Bank’s dovish tone intact. The proverbial door remains, not surprisingly, open to further rate cuts following last month’s reduction.
German Unemployment Change came in at -6k. Unemployment rate in Germany is already very low. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was left unchanged at a very low 6.4% (median same). This is helping to boost domestic demand, but also increases the risk of overshooting inflation going ahead and the ECB may be forced to lift its inflation projections this week.
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Core) is expected to pick up slightly to 0.7%.In April Eurozone Core inflation remained at 0.6% y/y. Developments confirmed that negative headline inflation rates were mainly due to energy prices and that there always was only ever a very small risk of a deflationary spiral, but the ECB nevertheless credits its QE program with the pick up in inflation expectations.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 06.01.2015

June 1, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 06.01.2015

EURUSD, Daily

The Q1 GDP growth figure from last Friday wasn’t quite as weak as the median suggested, falling “only” 0.7%. But, the composition of that report, along with recent data, doesn’t indicate Q2 is likely to bounce sharply. Also, it’s still not clear how much of this sluggishness can be blamed on “transitory” factors. Nevertheless, a Fed rate hike in September is still in the cards, as indicated by the Median forecast. Fedspeak of late, even from the doves, has suggested policymakers want to start the normalization process. But will that be possible as soon as next quarter? The FOMC will need to see stronger data over the next couple of months to make lift-off credible.

According to reports, the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras is in talks with Merkel and Hollande. With the end of May deadline gone Mr Tsipras once again hopes to bypass the negotiations with the Brussels group and puts his hopes on talks with Merkel and Hollande. The three had a reportedly “constructive” telephone conversation yesterday and Merkel and Hollande are set to meet today. Tsipras meanwhile blamed the lack of progress on the “absurd” proposals by certain institutions, which ignore recent democratic decisions in Greece. In an article for France’s Le Monde, he said that the plans for the pension system are not suitable for a civilized country while warning that it would be a bit mistake to think that finding a solution was just a Greek issue and that it is important for the whole of Europe. Not comments that signal a softening of the Greek stance.

EURUSD moved below Friday’s low this morning and is currently trading inside the daily pivot candle from May 27^th and inside the Bollinger Bands with Stochastics pointing higher. Last week’s doji candle suggests that buyers are prepared to buy not so far from the current levels. At the time of writing the pair is trading higher intraday support level 1.0904 and lower 4h Bollinger bands. This could lead to a rally but now that the pair has moved below Friday’s low there are resistance levels ahead. Therefore such rallies could be short lived and price is likely to be range bound today between Friday’s high of 1.1006 and last week’s low of 1.0820. The nearest daily time frame support and resistance levels are at 1.0820 and 1.0965. The 50% Fibonacci level and 50 day SMA coincide at the latter level.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Today’s movers in terms of currency pairs are EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDCHF that have all moved considerably from Friday’s close. EURJPY is correcting lower from a resistance and is at the time of writing trading slightly below Friday’s low. GBPJPY has corrected to a support created by a sideways range from mid-May while AUDCHF is moving higher after the pair closed down over the last four trading days. The main themes today have been weakness in almost all currencies against JPY and USD. We’ve also seen EUR weakness across the board while GBP has been weak against everything else but CHF and EUR. USD is currently strong against EUR, GBP and CHF.

Main Macro Events Today

China’s PMI figures improved modestly from April, but don’t suggest much pick up. The official manufacturing index edged up to 50.2, from 50.1 in both March and April, after the gauge had dipped below the 50 threshold in January and February. The PBoC has been fairly active in easing policy in recent months to try to help boost growth.
Eurozone May manufacturing PMI wasrevised down to 52.3 from 52.3 reported initially. The country breakdown was mixed, with Italian and Spanish readings coming in much higher than anticipated, and the French reading revised up, although the latter remained in contraction territory. The German PMI was the big disappointment, with a downward revision to 51.1, from 51.4 reported initially, which means the drop from the 52.1 April reading was even more pronounced than expected.
UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 52, slightly under the consensus expectation of 52.5. The PMI report showed that strong domestic demand is being offset by weak export performance, which has largely been a consequence of sterling’s strength against the euro. In April Markit PMI unexpectedly dove to 51.9 from 54.0 in March, itself revised from 54.4. This marked the slowest rate of expansion since November.
US Manufacturing ISM is expected to rise to 52.0 from 51.5 in April and March. Forecast risk: downward, given new order weakness in early month releases. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 05.29.2015

May 29, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 05.29.2015

EURUSD, Daily

According to yesterday’s release US Initial jobless claims rose 7k to 282k (median 271k) for the week-ended May 23 from 275k (was 274k). Continuing claims rose to 2,222 from 2,211k for the week-ended May 16. This is near levels last seen in 2006. This weeks spike and the recent volatility is likely due to seasonal factors surrounding the Easter holiday.

The Preliminary annualized Gross Domestic Product data out today is expected to be revised to -0.9% from 0.2% in the release, following 2.2% growth in Q4. This report will give us more give more insights regarding US economy and its improvement. Greece continues to hang over the Eurozone, with wider market sentiment and hopes for a deal by the end of the month quickly fading. Yesterday’s deal-no deal comments by Greece and its creditors were more extreme than usual. It seems Tsipras was forced to express reassuring and optimistic comments to prevent panic and further deposit outflows ahead of the upcoming pension and wage payments. However, these statements are in conflict with creditor officials, highlighting that Greece is increasingly desperate for a quick deal since the extra time is over.

Yesterday the pair moved up to 1.0965 resistance level where the 50-day SMA coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and closed above previous day’s high. Declining tops and bottoms form a downtrend and as we have now seen the expected upside reaction from 1.0848 support (coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the March 13^th low to the May high) the chances have improved that the recent downward trend has reversed. Today’s price action and upside momentum have been subdued. The 1.1093 support at pivot candle high was enough to reverse an intraday down move today but there has not been a decisive move above yesterday’s high. If there is no strong decline today the weekly candle is will create a bullish pin bar. In this context the 50 day SMA is a minor resistance and we should see price moving higher next week. The intraday price action after the US GDP figures today (12:30 GMT) should give us more indications on for things to come.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Today’s intra-day performance shows clearly the NZD weakness against all major currencies with moves extending up to approximately 70 basis points. AUDNZD has moved higher after a hammer candle indicated further upward momentum but has now hit a resistance at early may range low. NZDUSD has dropped below an important weekly support level. JPY is showing some varying strength against all major currencies, with CHFJPY being an exception and NZDJPY moving strongly, down by 75 basis points and at lower Bollinger Bands at the time of writing. GBP has been weak while USD has had a mixed performance.

Main Macro Events Today

US Gross Domestic Product (Q1) is expected to be revised to -0.9% from 0.2% in the release, following 2.2% growth in Q4, expecting to give more insights regarding US economy and its improvement. Forecast risk: downward, given outsized revisions in source data for trade and inventories. Market risk: downward, as a weaker report could impact the already-fragile Fed rate hike timing.
Canada Gross Domestic Product is expected to increase by 0.2% in April at a moderate pace from the previous result that kept the percentage unchanged. The Q1 GDP report may be anti-climactic as anything between +0.5% to -0.5% will roughly match the BoC’s flat estimate. The key to the policy outlook remains, of course, what happens following the oil shock.
US Chicago purchasing managers’ Index is expected to come in at 53. Chicago PMI rose 6.0 points to 52.3 in April, better than expected, after increasing 0.5 points to 46.3 in March as the index continues to correct from the 13.6 point plunge in February to 45.8 (which was the weakest reading since July 2009). Both employment and new orders increased, and inventories declined. Prices paid also fell. The data are consistent with the Fed’s view that some of the weakness in Q1 was due to temporary factors.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Analysis for 05.28.2015

May 28, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 05.28.2015

EURUSD, Daily

EU says that further progress is needed in Greece talks. Yet again Greek officials are suggesting a quick deal with creditors, although today, it admittedly sounded more like this was just what Greek wants rather than a done deal. By contrast, creditors remain pessimistic and an EU spokeswoman said there are still issues that need to be resolved, with further progress needed in talks that will continue in coming days. Varoufakis calls for Greek debt restructuring, while saying that the IMF has a very dark history over the past 20-25 years. A Greek government spokesman meanwhile said the country is not planning to bundle its IMF repayments and aims to have a deal by Sunday. She also said that she is working on a common document with creditors. Creditors meanwhile continue to highlight that there are still considerable differences and Varoufakis’ comments on the IMF highlight that his tone hasn’t softened. This obviously is not helping. Neither are the conflicting messages coming out of Greece and it should be clear by now that only when creditor officials announce that a deal is imminent we can actually believe it. Greek officials seem to equate their hope for a quick deal, with actual progress. At the same time ECB’s Nowotny has commented the wider Eurozone economy by saying that there is no “currency war” in a historical range, but he admitted that the ECBs quantitative easing program has helped the Eurozone economy by weakening the EUR. However, he also warned that widespread negative yields can’t be normal.

We have seen some short term bullish momentum since yesterday in EURUSD and need to now have some follow-through (or more consolidation) to avoid further decline. At the time of writing EURUSD is trading inside yesterday’s pin bar range after it fell back from 1.0950 where it was close to the 50% Fibonacci level and Monday’s low. After yesterday’s reaction higher from support level and a close inside the lower Bollinger band the likelihood of price turning higher has increased. However, I would now like to see price creating a higher low and close above yesterday’s high to further support the reversal indication. This would suggest that price could move through the moving average resistance and to next resistance where previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci levels coincide. EURUSD is now approaching the levels that attracted buyers yesterday. Intraday price action at these levels is of high importance as we are looking for indications on markets’ collective opinion of this potential momentum reversal. Should the current support fail, the next significant daily support level is at 1.0660.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Today’s clear trend is the AUD and NZD weakness. When compared to the USD currencies more or less have had the same percentage change (± 40 basis points) except AUD and NZD that have fallen 122 and 155 basis points respectively against the USD. Apart from the slight USD strength today the Euro and CHF have had some strength against the other currencies while GBP and JPY have had a mixed performance. Again, it’s the AUD and NZD weakness that have moved EURAUD and EURNZD more than other EUR pairs.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Preliminary Q1 GDP came in sub-expectations at +0.3% q/q, half the median forecast and down from the 0.6% growth of Q4. Second estimation was expected at 0.4%, but the actual result was equal to previous 0.3%.
US Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected. The 7k initial claims rise to 282k in the fourth week of May extends the 11k bounce to 275k (was 274k) in the BLS survey, as claims continue to reverse the tightness in the prior three readings that started with a 262k cycle-low at the end of April. Claims are still tight versus pre-May levels however, and are displaying a cyclical downtrend that became obscured in early-April by a temporary spike around the Easter holiday period.
US Pending Home Sales (MoM) is expected to increase by 0.9% in April compared to previous result 1.1% in March. This is a leading indicator of the housing market in the US and the economy as a whole.
Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) is expected to increase by 0.2% in April. An increase is expected after Core CPI improved to a 2.2% y/y pace in March from 2.0% y/y pace in February and 2.2% y/y in January. But the trend deceleration should be worrying policymakers.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Free Forex Analysis for 05.27.2015

May 27, 2015 Forex Analysis

Free Forex Signals for 05.27.2015

EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s US reports revealed small upside surprises. The durable goods figures for equipment beat estimates modestly despite a 0.5% April headline orders drop, while new home sales rose 6.8% in April to partly reverse a March plunge. The GDP growth outlook remains unchanged at 2.5% in Q2. We saw a May consumer confidence rise to 95.4 that defied declines in all other confidence surveys for the month, and the Richmond Fed index bounced as expected to 1 from -3. Only the Dallas Fed index disappointed, with a drop to a -20.8 six-year low from -16.0 in April. Additionally we had Richmond Fed’s Lacker speaking yesterday. He likes June as a “good time to begin considering raising rates,” suggesting that weak Q1 data is transitory and inflation is firming again after oil rebounds from its slide. Lacker is a known hawk in the FOMC.

EURUSD has recouped the 1.0900 level during Asian trade after leaving a one-month low at 1.0863 yesterday. The pair has fallen some 4% in seven of the last eight trading days after making a three-month peak. I suggested yesterday that the support at 1.0845 could work as a target for intraday trades as 61.8% Fibonacci level coincides with daily highs in April. Market turning higher slightly above this level suggests that others are eyeing the same level. Yesterday’s close was outside the lower 2 stdv Bollinger Band and should today’s close be inside the band probabilities of price rallying higher increase. The next significant resistance area is at 1.1084 to 1.1131.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Apart from movements in CHF the price action in other currencies has been relatively small. Money has been moving into CHF from other major currencies and it is up by 40 to 50 basis points or more against all the other currencies except EUR. CHF has been especially strong against the JPY, up by over 0.75% at the time of writing. Euro’s relative strength against CHF adds to the EUR strength we are seeing against the USD and other majors. There is consistent JPY weakness even though the movements have most of the morning been subdued. An exception to this is CHFJPY. USD performance is a bit mixed after hitting a historical resistance level in DXY. From this point of view it’s interesting that EURUSD is close to a support, USDCAD is trading at resistance and NZDUSD close to a weekly support. Also USDCHF is reacting lower from a combination of historical resistance and upper Bollinger bands together with a 50 day SMA.

Main Macro Events Today

German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun) rose to 10.2 from 10.1. Economic confidence is improving, as is the willingness to buy, despite the fact that income expectations eased slightly. This is a confirmation that the German recovery remains on track.
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75%. It will likely maintain a constructive outlook beyond Q1, expecting return to full capacity around the end of 2016. No change in rates through 2015 is expected.
Japan Retail Trade (YoY) is expected to increase by 5.4% in April. Previous result dropped 9.7% y/y in March from a revised -1.7% y/y in February (was -1.8% y/y previously). Large retailers saw a 13.0% y/y plunge after a 1.3% February gain. However, we have to take into account that sales surged in March 2014 ahead of the April tax hike.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

USDJPY Trading Near March High

May 25, 2015May 27, 2015 Forex Analysis

USDJPY Weekly

USDJPY has been moving side ways since the beginning of December 2014. The deepest correction has the retracement to 38.2% Fibonacci level in mid-December and was followed by another in January that attracted buyers just above the previous low. Since then price has challenged the previous high once and after failing to penetrate the resistance it created a higher low. Now the pair has yet again moved to the upper weekly Bollinger Bands. At the same time we have the US Dollar Index at a level that resisted moves higher in March this year.

USD has been relatively strong against the JPY throughout period it has been correcting against the other currencies and as the weekly lows have been higher with the latest CPI number from States surprising to the upside it could well be that the upper end of this range will eventually give in. At the end of the day it is more likely that the US Fed will hike the rates before the Japanese central bank which could even come up with yet another round of stimulus.

USDJPY Daily

Last week’s rally lifted USDJPY to the upper end of the range that has limited the pair’s movements since the end of the last year. Stochastics is overbought and price is reacting lower after moving above the upper daily Bollinger Band and also very close to the March high. If today’s daily candle closes to current levels or lower price has created a bearish shooting star candle. Stochastics is about to move below its three day moving average and could give a bearish signal should the weakness continue. Nearest support and resistance levels are 120.84 to 120.50 and 122.02.

USDJPY 240 min

The pair fell lower after hitting a historical resistance at 121.68 and has since found support at a minor support level that coincides with a high from Wednesday last week. This lack of upside momentum and a correction lower has eased the overbought condition in this timeframe and brought the oscillators lower. The nearest more significant support area (120.83 – 120.61) is currently near the lower Bollinger Bands and 38.2% Fibonacci level while the next major resistance is at 122.02.

Conclusion

Price is trading close to a longer term resistance and we could see market creating an exhaustion candle (shooting star). Today’s price action however might not be that important as many significant markets have been on holiday. Whenever a market is trading close to a resistance one should be looking for shorting opportunities. This market is trading near its resistance levels and therefore I would only initiate long positions after a correction to a significant support. Due to divergent inflation expectations and relatively strong US economy the dollar yen pair should eventually move higher but as usual a low risk entry would be preferable.Taking advantage of corrections to significant support levels such as the range created by Friday’s low at 120.61 and 1.5 stdv Bollinger Bands at 120.83 would be a preferable strategy to buying close to a resistance. Look for confirming price action at the key levels. If aforementioned support level fails to attract buyers assumptions in this analysis need to be re-evaluated.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Today’s Currency Movers

May 22, 2015May 27, 2015 Forex Analysis

EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s weaker than expected existing home sales in US and a dip in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index supported forecasts for only tepid pick up in Q2 growth after a very weak Q1. The May Philadelphia Fed Survey disappointed. The figure came in at 6.7 instead of 8.0 expected by the analyst consensus. This increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current dovish stance.

EURUSD has been trading in the low-to-mid 1.11s, above Wednesday’s 1.1060 low. There was a lack of substantive progress at the latest summit in Riga between the Greek government and creditors in bailout negotiations. The on-going Grexit uncertainty might have been the reason the euro’s upside has been curtailed, while the May German IFO today should affirm the slowing in growth momentum that was seen in the ZEW and PMI surveys. ECB’s Draghi and BoE’s Carney are set to speak at an ECB conference on central banking in Portugal and today’s European data calendar is unlikely to give markets any reason to cheer. Another speaker worthy of mention is the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking later on today.

The resistance area created by the May 11^th pivotal low has been holding EURUSD back but yesterday’s daily low was higher than the previous day’s low. This with the fact that price has moved higher from today’s open suggests modest bullishness on EURUSD. Daily bar lows also seem to honour a trendline drawn from April low. Stochastics are oversold and the lower Bollinger bands are catching up with the price. US Dollar index is looking weak as it’s trading below the shooting star candle lows from day before yesterday. Nearest support and resistance levels: 1.1052 and 1.1324.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Modest EUR strength and USD and GBP weakness is dominating the Currency Movers charts today. AUD, NZD and JPY performance has been mixed. EURJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD and EURNZD are reacting higher from intraday supports and should EUR make a move today, these pairs are likely to follow.

Main Macro Events Today

German Gross Domestic Product (Q1) growth slowed to 0.3% q/q as expected, a significant decrease from the fourth quarter last year which was 0.7%. Still, taken the two quarters together, the underlying trend is robust. The very strong labour market, the rising wage growth and the boost to real disposable income from lower oil prices reinforced Q1.
US Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to remain unchanged, while the core index, which excludes food and energy products, is expected to rise to 1.7%, 0.1% lower compared to previous year’s result.
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to expand to 1.0% in April, 0.2% lower compared to the previous month. It is seen rising 0.1% on a monthly comparable basis in April after the expansion of 0.7% m/m in March and 0.9% m/m in February.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our TopForex Brokers official website: http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com