Signals Articles

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slumps

Forex Analysis
2016-06-03_17-07-08

EURUSD, Daily       

U.S. ISM non manufacturing index dropped 2.8 points to 52.9 in May after rising 1.2 points to 55.7 in April. This is the lowest since February 2014. The index was 55.9 a year ago. The business activity index fell to 55.1 from 58.8. The employment component plunged to 49.7 from 53.0, matching the lowest since February 2014. New orders fell to 54.2 from 59.9. New export orders tumbled to 49.0 from 56.5. Prices paid was one of the few components posting a gain, rising to 55.6 from 53.4. Another disappointing report.

The dollar extended lower following the factory orders and services ISM results, where the former missed slightly and the latter missed significantly. EURUSD has rallied to 1.1348, matching the May 17 peak, as USDJPY fell to 106.77, levels last seen on May 6.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Weakest NFP in more than five years

Forex Analysis
2016-06-03_15-48-09

USDJPY, Daily       

US nonfarm payrolls increased only 38k in May following a 123k increase in April (revised down from 160k) and a 186k jump in March (revised from 208k), for a net -59k revision. The gain last month was the smallest since September 2010. But, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% from 5.0%, the lowest since November 2007. The labor force plunged 458k after April’s 362k drop, while household employment bounced 26k from -316k. The labor force participation rate slid to 62.6% versus 62.8% previously. Earnings were up 0.2% compared to the prior 0.4% gain (revised from 0.3%). The workweek was flat at 34.4 (April was nudged down from 34.5). Private payrolls increased 25k, with the goods producing sector seeing a 36k drop, while construction fell 15k, with manufacturing down 10k. Service sector jobs increased 61k, led by a 67k jump in education/health. Government added 13k. Though the data is very noisy, in part due to the Verizon strike, it will be difficult for the FOMC to make a tightening case with these numbers.

The dollar fell sharply following the big NFP miss, which came in at roughly 1/4 of expectations. Earnings and average workweek data were in-line with forecasts. EURUSD rallied over 100 points to 1.1270 from 1.1160, as USDJPY collapsed to nearly one-month lows of 107.79 from 108.85. Equity futures have turned marginal gains into moderate losses, while yields moved significantly lower.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

European services PMI very mixed

Forex Analysis
2016-06-03_14-26-41

EURUSD, Daily       

Bundesbank cuts growth and inflation forecast, sees balanced risks. After the ECB published its updated set of staff projections yesterday, the Bundesbank released its projections for Germany, which were taking into account in the ECB calculations. The working day adjusted forecast for GDP was cut to 1.6% this year from 1.7% previously and the projection for 2017 was cut to 1.6% from 1.9%. 2018 growth is seen at 1.7%. At the same time, the inflation projections were cut to 0.2% this year and 1.5% next year from 1.1% and 2.0% previously. Sharp downward revisions with the Bundesbank blaming oil price variations and seeing balanced risks, but with inflation seen at just 1.7% in 2018, this means headline rates will remain below the 2% upper limit for price stability for a lengthy period.

Eurozone services PMI revised up to 53.3 from 53.1 and the composite revised up to 53.1 from 52.9. This means the services reading improved slightly over the month, and the composite now shows an acceleration on the overall pace of activity, compared to a slight deceleration suggested by the initial numbers. National data was mixed, and especially the fact that the Italian services PMI fell back into contraction territory at just 49.8 and the overall composite Italian PMI is barely holding above the boom-bust line at 50.8 is worrying. Bund futures recovered earlier losses on the weak Italian numbers and as the French readings were revised down, but are off highs as German and Eurozone numbers were revised higher. Uncertainty remains high but the mixed data will add to the disappointment over the ECB’s failure to announce new measures.

All quite on the forex front as markets hunker down ahead of the U.S. employment report showstopper, to which the possibility, or not, of a Fed rate hike on June 15 hinges. The G3 currencies are on the day so far showing less than a net 0.15% net change against one another. EURUSD has been locked in the mid 1.11s and USDJPY has taken root around 109.00, having recovered from the 18-day low at 108.49 that was seen during the Tokyo session.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Construction PMI adds to GBP gloom

Forex Analysis
2016-06-02_12-12-47

GBPUSD, H4       

UK Markit construction PMI unexpectedly fell to 51.2, a near three-year low and contrary to the median forecast for an unchanged 52.0 reading. The survey also revealed the first drop in new orders since April 2013, although job hiring hit a four-month high. Markit reported that businesses noted a general slowdown in market conditions and delays to client decision making ahead of the EU referendum, though 51% of respondents expect a rise in output over the next 12 months and only 14% expecting a fall. Yesterday’s manufacturing PMI surpassed expectations in rising to 50.1 in May from April’s cycle low of 49.2, but the survey nevertheless highlighted that higher uncertainty stemming from weaker economic growth and the Brexit issue is taking a toll on investment spending. The services survey will be release tomorrow.

GBPUSD has recovered from yesterday’s sub 1.4400 level a little this morning to trade at 1.4435. Brexit continues to loom with three weeks to polling day the FT poll of poll has 46% Stay, 43% Leave and the Undecided at a substantial 12%.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUD Outperforms following positive export data

Forex Analysis
2016-05-31_10-34-02

AUDUSD, H4     

The Aussie outperformed today after data showed exports made a 1.1 percentage point contribution to Q1 GDP, up from a zero contribution in the previous quarter and above the consensus view for a 0.7 percentage point outcome. This sent economists scurrying to upgrade GDP forecasts ahead of tomorrow’s release of growth data for the March quarter. AUDUSD was showing a 0.9% gain 0.7245, having logged an eight-day peak at 0.7250. Elsewhere, USDJPY has settled in the low 111s, below yesterday’s one-month peak at 111.40. Japanese data were encouraging today, with April industrial production unexpectedly rising 0.3% m/m, despite the activity-affecting earthquakes that struck in that month. Household spending also declined less than expected. The data supports the view that the Japanese economy will continue on a slow-growth plane; but with deflation threating the consensus for the BoJ to expand monetary policy by July is likely to remain a strong-conviction view. With the Fed on course for a second rate hike, I remain bullish of USDJPY (Target 2 111.90 still in play), especially as Chinese stock markets having posted their longest winning streak since 2012. EURUSD rose to a two-session peak at 1.1154 amid a bout of dollar selling, since drifting back around the 1.1130 area.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY – rallies to target and one month high

Forex Analysis
2016-05-30_10-35-34

USDJPY, H4     

USDJPY rallied to a one-month peak of 111.32, partly reflecting broader dollar gains and partly broader yen weakness.  This hit my target from Thursday of 110.60 for a net gain of 55.7 pips. “The recovery this morning (May 26), back again over 110.00, suggests that it was a big seller of the JPY (probably in Asia) and they were filled over night and that last Friday’s 110.60 area is again in reach. The risk reward on the trade this morning is acceptable, yesterday the target was too close to justify the trade”.   

The gains in the U.S. currency reflect the rekindling of expectations in Fed tightening expectations; while, despite this, generally firmer stock markets in Asia have encouraged yen selling. The consensus view is that the BoJ will also expand monetary policy by July. The Apr-25 peak at 111.89 provides the next upside waypoint (Target 2) for USDJPY. Japanese retail sales data today fell 0.8% y/y in April after -1.0% in March. This was slightly above the median forecast for a 1.2% y/y contraction. While EURJPY rose to 10-day highs EURUSD ebbed to an 11-week low of 1.1098. The Mar-16 low at 1.1057 provides the next downside focal point. AUD-USD dipped to a six-day low, nearing three-month lows, while the NZDUSD traded into two-month low terrain.  

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Q1 GDP GROWTH REVISED UP TO 0.8%

Forex Analysis
2016-05-27_16-12-04

EURUSD, H1     

US Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.8%. This rise was from 0.5% but undershot our estimates thanks to the lack of an expected boost in consumption and a big downward bump in intellectual property investment, alongside a slightly smaller than expected $8.7 bln inventory boost. We saw the expected moderate hike in construction and a slight trimming in equipment spending, alongside a surprising $5.6 bln net export boost, leaving a small hike in final sales growth to 1.0% from 0.9%. We’ll keep our Q2 GDP growth estimate at 2.0% until we can review Monday’s income report. The Q1 GDP data still depict an economy suffering from weak global growth, a surging dollar, and falling oil prices that are disrupting the export and petro sectors and contributing to the inventory overbuild. We have business fixed investment declines as companies right-size costs to diminished nominal revenue in the face of price weakness and consumption restraint from cautious households. We expect diminishing global, petro, and inventory headwinds in Q2 as GDP growth bounces. EURUSD rallied a little to1.1172 on the release only to fall back to 1.1152, all eyes now on Mrs Yellen and her conversation with Professor Mankiw.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Q1 GDP REVISED LOWER TO 2.0% FROM 2.1%

Forex Analysis
2016-05-26_14-18-53

GBPUSD, H1     

UK Q1 GDP was revised lower:  The UK’s GDP during the first quarter of 2016 was revised lower to 2.0% y/y from 2.1% in the preliminary estimate, disappointing the median forecast for an unchanged 2.1% reading. The q/q figure remained at 0.4%, as originally estimated, matching the median forecast. Services rose by 0.6% q/q while industrial production declined by 0.4% and construction by 1.0% q/q . In other data out of the UK, BBA mortgage approvals fell to 40.1k in April, down from 45.1k and well off the median forecast for a more modest decline to 44.7k. The outcome is also the lowest since March last year. The sharp rise in transaction taxes for investment properties, which was implemented in April, along with the Brexit issue (Remainers have been arguing that leaving the EU will hit house prices), are getting the blame. Sterling took a tumble in the wake of the data releases, putting Cable at an intraday low of 1.4677 after earlier logging a three-week high at 1.4739.  A close above 1.4700 on the daily time frame would be very interesting for the BULLS.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY – WILD OVERNIGHT SWING AND NOW LONG

Forex Analysis
2016-05-26_11-35-41

USDJPY, H4     

Yesterday (May 25) I posted a news report on the US Markit Services PMI being a little softer than expected but that the USD had shrugged that news off and appeared to be comfortably above the 110 level. It also looked that sentiment was taking the USD higher over the coming hours as the US stock markets had had a great Tuesday and Wednesday was looking to support the USD too. The chart I posted was the USDJPY, H4 below, support around the109.77 level and Fridays high at 110.60 area.

2016-05-25_16-59-18

Today (May 26)  it was interesting to see such a rapid spike and move down overnight with nothing or little to explain it – see the TOP chart above. The recovery this morning, back again over 110.00, suggests that it was a big seller of the JPY (probably in Asia) and they were filled over night and that last Friday’s 110.60 area is again in reach. The risk reward on the trade today is acceptable, yesterday the target was too close to justify the entry.

However, a break and breach below 109.20 would suggest more YEN strength into next week as confirmed by the Daily chart below.

2016-05-26_13-02-37

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US MARKIT SERVICES PMI SOFTER THAN EXPECTED

Forex Analysis
2016-05-25_16-59-18

USDJPY, H4     

US Markit reported its flash services PMI stumbled to 51.2 in May after increasing to 52.8 in April from 51.3 in March. The index has been correcting from the February drop to 49.7, but this slowing in activity is a bit of a disappointment. It was 56.2 a year ago. Employment slid to 51.8 from 53.1 from 54.0 in March, and is the lowest print since December 2014. Prices charged did rise, however, to the highest since November 2015. The flash composite index dropped to 50.8 from last month’s 52.4 and compares to 51.3 in March. The employment component softened to 51.7 from 52.6, and is the lowest since April 2014. But as with the services index, the price component rose and hit its highest since July 2015. USDJPY has peaked at 110.41, within sight of Friday’s 110.61three-week high. Support has come from a second session of risk-on conditions, with Wall Street set to add to Tuesday’s sharp gains. Improved odds for a June Fed rate hike has been dollar friendly more broadly, even with these softer than expected Markit numbers.       

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.