Strong GDP numbers support ECB’s stancev

Chart_16-06-07_12-32-52

Eurozone Q1 GDP was revised up to 0.6% q/q from 0.5% q/q reported initially, and Q4 last year was also revised higher to 0.4% q/q from 0.3% q/q. This means the trajectory is better than initially thought, which backs the ECB view that the recovery remains on track, even if Q1 data have to be taken with a pinch of salt and are likely to be followed by a relatively weak number for Q2.

The breakdown showed that private consumption growth accelerated strongly to 0.6% q/q from 0.3% in Q4 and was the biggest single contributor to the strong quarterly growth rate, which may partly be due to the Easter Effect. Fixed gross investment growth slowed, but still contributed 0.2% points, and government consumption a further 0.1% points, while net exports detracted 0.1% points. Again strong numbers, that will back the ECB’s wait and see stance, even if confidence indicators point to a slowdown ahead.

EURUSD has been reacting favorably to the numbers while the fact that Fed Chair Yellen didn’t put any specific date on the rate hike pressures the USD. Price has been moving higher from a support at 1.1360 and is now at minor resistance at 1.1380. The next significant resistance lies at 1.1445 while some minor resistance exits at 1.1404 – 1.1415.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP Update: Target 1 hit today

Chart_16-06-07_11-24-32

EURGBP, Daily

I wrote yesterday that EUR had rallied strongly against USD and GBP after the stunningly low employment numbers from the US on Friday. I mentioned that as a result EURGBP moved to levels that might not be sustainable. Technical picture was also deteriorating with EURUSD struggling at 1.1355 resistance and EURGBP trading near levels that turned it lower in the beginning of May. Also, the 4h candle was about to create a bearish shooting star candle. Based on these factors I took a view that the price is probably turning lower. EURGBP dropped eventually as GBP rallied on the back of some trading algorithms gone haywire and the pair hit my Target 1 at 0.7776 – 0.7800. According to the method I teach in the webinars gained approximately 4:1 reward to risk was gained.

The pair has now rallied strongly since hitting my first target and is currently reacting lower from an area below a minor resistance level at 0.7834. It is not unusual to see a second leg down after an initial price move lower in volatile market conditions. This move could take the price near to the levels it found support earlier today. The 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level (drawn from the May low to the latest high) is near a 0.7754 support that could prove the be a challenge to the bears if the price moves to these levels. In the daily chart we have bearish pin bar from yesterday’s trading which supports the idea of price moving lower first before it can recover. I would like to meet you in the free webinars that we run on weekly basis. We all should take time to learn more about trading and make sure we know what to do before committing serious money to it. If you would like to become better and more confident trader, feel free to join us! I look forward to meeting you there.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY Retraces to target

2016-06-07_10-01-14

GBPJPY, Daily        

Following the big gaps on the GBP pairs yesterday  after the surprise lead for the Leave group in the UK EU Referendum, I wrote that GBPJPY “Technically sterling is looking oversold, and should retrace from here. I expect some retracement from this current oversold level (153.30 at the time) to the 156.00 – 157.000 area”.

Thanks in part to more polls, Sterling rallied on new Brexit polls, which indicate a swing back of support for the Remain-in-the-EU campaign, the retrace was completed with 24 hours for a net gain of over 200 pips.

Two new polls, a YouGov survey for the Times and an ORB telephone poll for the Telegraph, showed the Remain camp in the lead, reversing yesterday’s polls that showed the opposite. Cable spiked over 1.5% to an eight-day peak of 1.4662 before ebbing back to the low 1.45s, still up over 50 pips from yesterday’s closing level. The mix of the Brexit polls and the thin market for sterling in Asia caused the whippy price action.

The Daily support remains at 154.30 and this level needs to be breached and broken before any further down action, on the upside 160.60 and 162.00 will provide resistance.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP rolling over from resistance

EURGBP1

EURGBP, 60 min

EUR rallied strongly against USD and GBP after the stunningly low employment numbers from the US. This took EURGBP to levels that might not be sustainable. While EURUSD is struggling with 1.1355 resistance EURGBP is trading near levels that turned it lower in the beginning of May. The resistance area between 0.7894 and 0.7920 turned out to be a challenge for the bulls after the pair had moved higher by more than 3% in 5 days. Daily Stochastics oscillator is about to give a bearish signal and price itself is rolling over in the 60 min time frame. If the current 4h candle closes (< 60 min to go) below 0.7885 a bearish shooting star candle is created. This adds to my view that price is probably turning lower.

I’m looking for sell signals inside my Sell Area between 0.7870 and 0.7900 while my Target 1 for the this trade is at 0.7776 – 0.7800 bracket and my Target 2 at 0.7690 – 0.7720. If you don’t know how to trade I strongly advise you to join our educational webinars before attempting to utilize our analysis or trade on your own.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBP Opens the week very weak

2016-06-06_10-26-35

GBPJPY, Daily        

Big gaps on the GBP pairs this morning as two new polls shows the “Leave “ camp moving into the lead. 17 days to polling  day and a poll by YouGov for ITV’s “Good Morning Britain” has the leave camp on 45% and Remain on 41%.  A poll by TNS has the Leave camp with a 2% lead on 43% and Remain on 41%. 16% of respondents polled by TNS were Undecided.

Ladbrokes now has a Brexit at 30.7% up from 28.5% June 1.

The GBP fell on the news in Asian trading and has fallen further as the European session opens. Sterling is currently 0.7880 against the EUR, GBPUSD touched 1.4351 before covering to 1.4400 and GBPJPY broke 153.00 before recovering to 154.32.

Technically sterling is looking oversold, and should retrace from here. The GBPJPY pair could test the April and Fibonacci low of 151.80, and further down the Monthly time frame support is at 148.80.  The Daily support of 154.30 needs to be breached and broken before this next leg down.  I expect some retracement from this current oversold level to the 156.00 – 157.000 area.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slumps

2016-06-03_17-07-08

EURUSD, Daily       

U.S. ISM non manufacturing index dropped 2.8 points to 52.9 in May after rising 1.2 points to 55.7 in April. This is the lowest since February 2014. The index was 55.9 a year ago. The business activity index fell to 55.1 from 58.8. The employment component plunged to 49.7 from 53.0, matching the lowest since February 2014. New orders fell to 54.2 from 59.9. New export orders tumbled to 49.0 from 56.5. Prices paid was one of the few components posting a gain, rising to 55.6 from 53.4. Another disappointing report.

The dollar extended lower following the factory orders and services ISM results, where the former missed slightly and the latter missed significantly. EURUSD has rallied to 1.1348, matching the May 17 peak, as USDJPY fell to 106.77, levels last seen on May 6.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Weakest NFP in more than five years

2016-06-03_15-48-09

USDJPY, Daily       

US nonfarm payrolls increased only 38k in May following a 123k increase in April (revised down from 160k) and a 186k jump in March (revised from 208k), for a net -59k revision. The gain last month was the smallest since September 2010. But, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% from 5.0%, the lowest since November 2007. The labor force plunged 458k after April’s 362k drop, while household employment bounced 26k from -316k. The labor force participation rate slid to 62.6% versus 62.8% previously. Earnings were up 0.2% compared to the prior 0.4% gain (revised from 0.3%). The workweek was flat at 34.4 (April was nudged down from 34.5). Private payrolls increased 25k, with the goods producing sector seeing a 36k drop, while construction fell 15k, with manufacturing down 10k. Service sector jobs increased 61k, led by a 67k jump in education/health. Government added 13k. Though the data is very noisy, in part due to the Verizon strike, it will be difficult for the FOMC to make a tightening case with these numbers.

The dollar fell sharply following the big NFP miss, which came in at roughly 1/4 of expectations. Earnings and average workweek data were in-line with forecasts. EURUSD rallied over 100 points to 1.1270 from 1.1160, as USDJPY collapsed to nearly one-month lows of 107.79 from 108.85. Equity futures have turned marginal gains into moderate losses, while yields moved significantly lower.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

European services PMI very mixed

2016-06-03_14-26-41

EURUSD, Daily       

Bundesbank cuts growth and inflation forecast, sees balanced risks. After the ECB published its updated set of staff projections yesterday, the Bundesbank released its projections for Germany, which were taking into account in the ECB calculations. The working day adjusted forecast for GDP was cut to 1.6% this year from 1.7% previously and the projection for 2017 was cut to 1.6% from 1.9%. 2018 growth is seen at 1.7%. At the same time, the inflation projections were cut to 0.2% this year and 1.5% next year from 1.1% and 2.0% previously. Sharp downward revisions with the Bundesbank blaming oil price variations and seeing balanced risks, but with inflation seen at just 1.7% in 2018, this means headline rates will remain below the 2% upper limit for price stability for a lengthy period.

Eurozone services PMI revised up to 53.3 from 53.1 and the composite revised up to 53.1 from 52.9. This means the services reading improved slightly over the month, and the composite now shows an acceleration on the overall pace of activity, compared to a slight deceleration suggested by the initial numbers. National data was mixed, and especially the fact that the Italian services PMI fell back into contraction territory at just 49.8 and the overall composite Italian PMI is barely holding above the boom-bust line at 50.8 is worrying. Bund futures recovered earlier losses on the weak Italian numbers and as the French readings were revised down, but are off highs as German and Eurozone numbers were revised higher. Uncertainty remains high but the mixed data will add to the disappointment over the ECB’s failure to announce new measures.

All quite on the forex front as markets hunker down ahead of the U.S. employment report showstopper, to which the possibility, or not, of a Fed rate hike on June 15 hinges. The G3 currencies are on the day so far showing less than a net 0.15% net change against one another. EURUSD has been locked in the mid 1.11s and USDJPY has taken root around 109.00, having recovered from the 18-day low at 108.49 that was seen during the Tokyo session.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Construction PMI adds to GBP gloom

2016-06-02_12-12-47

GBPUSD, H4       

UK Markit construction PMI unexpectedly fell to 51.2, a near three-year low and contrary to the median forecast for an unchanged 52.0 reading. The survey also revealed the first drop in new orders since April 2013, although job hiring hit a four-month high. Markit reported that businesses noted a general slowdown in market conditions and delays to client decision making ahead of the EU referendum, though 51% of respondents expect a rise in output over the next 12 months and only 14% expecting a fall. Yesterday’s manufacturing PMI surpassed expectations in rising to 50.1 in May from April’s cycle low of 49.2, but the survey nevertheless highlighted that higher uncertainty stemming from weaker economic growth and the Brexit issue is taking a toll on investment spending. The services survey will be release tomorrow.

GBPUSD has recovered from yesterday’s sub 1.4400 level a little this morning to trade at 1.4435. Brexit continues to loom with three weeks to polling day the FT poll of poll has 46% Stay, 43% Leave and the Undecided at a substantial 12%.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

AUD Outperforms following positive export data

2016-05-31_10-34-02

AUDUSD, H4     

The Aussie outperformed today after data showed exports made a 1.1 percentage point contribution to Q1 GDP, up from a zero contribution in the previous quarter and above the consensus view for a 0.7 percentage point outcome. This sent economists scurrying to upgrade GDP forecasts ahead of tomorrow’s release of growth data for the March quarter. AUDUSD was showing a 0.9% gain 0.7245, having logged an eight-day peak at 0.7250. Elsewhere, USDJPY has settled in the low 111s, below yesterday’s one-month peak at 111.40. Japanese data were encouraging today, with April industrial production unexpectedly rising 0.3% m/m, despite the activity-affecting earthquakes that struck in that month. Household spending also declined less than expected. The data supports the view that the Japanese economy will continue on a slow-growth plane; but with deflation threating the consensus for the BoJ to expand monetary policy by July is likely to remain a strong-conviction view. With the Fed on course for a second rate hike, I remain bullish of USDJPY (Target 2 111.90 still in play), especially as Chinese stock markets having posted their longest winning streak since 2012. EURUSD rose to a two-session peak at 1.1154 amid a bout of dollar selling, since drifting back around the 1.1130 area.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.