Signals Articles

USDJPY – rallies to target and one month high

Forex Analysis
2016-05-30_10-35-34

USDJPY, H4     

USDJPY rallied to a one-month peak of 111.32, partly reflecting broader dollar gains and partly broader yen weakness.  This hit my target from Thursday of 110.60 for a net gain of 55.7 pips. “The recovery this morning (May 26), back again over 110.00, suggests that it was a big seller of the JPY (probably in Asia) and they were filled over night and that last Friday’s 110.60 area is again in reach. The risk reward on the trade this morning is acceptable, yesterday the target was too close to justify the trade”.   

The gains in the U.S. currency reflect the rekindling of expectations in Fed tightening expectations; while, despite this, generally firmer stock markets in Asia have encouraged yen selling. The consensus view is that the BoJ will also expand monetary policy by July. The Apr-25 peak at 111.89 provides the next upside waypoint (Target 2) for USDJPY. Japanese retail sales data today fell 0.8% y/y in April after -1.0% in March. This was slightly above the median forecast for a 1.2% y/y contraction. While EURJPY rose to 10-day highs EURUSD ebbed to an 11-week low of 1.1098. The Mar-16 low at 1.1057 provides the next downside focal point. AUD-USD dipped to a six-day low, nearing three-month lows, while the NZDUSD traded into two-month low terrain.  

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Q1 GDP GROWTH REVISED UP TO 0.8%

Forex Analysis
2016-05-27_16-12-04

EURUSD, H1     

US Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.8%. This rise was from 0.5% but undershot our estimates thanks to the lack of an expected boost in consumption and a big downward bump in intellectual property investment, alongside a slightly smaller than expected $8.7 bln inventory boost. We saw the expected moderate hike in construction and a slight trimming in equipment spending, alongside a surprising $5.6 bln net export boost, leaving a small hike in final sales growth to 1.0% from 0.9%. We’ll keep our Q2 GDP growth estimate at 2.0% until we can review Monday’s income report. The Q1 GDP data still depict an economy suffering from weak global growth, a surging dollar, and falling oil prices that are disrupting the export and petro sectors and contributing to the inventory overbuild. We have business fixed investment declines as companies right-size costs to diminished nominal revenue in the face of price weakness and consumption restraint from cautious households. We expect diminishing global, petro, and inventory headwinds in Q2 as GDP growth bounces. EURUSD rallied a little to1.1172 on the release only to fall back to 1.1152, all eyes now on Mrs Yellen and her conversation with Professor Mankiw.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Q1 GDP REVISED LOWER TO 2.0% FROM 2.1%

Forex Analysis
2016-05-26_14-18-53

GBPUSD, H1     

UK Q1 GDP was revised lower:  The UK’s GDP during the first quarter of 2016 was revised lower to 2.0% y/y from 2.1% in the preliminary estimate, disappointing the median forecast for an unchanged 2.1% reading. The q/q figure remained at 0.4%, as originally estimated, matching the median forecast. Services rose by 0.6% q/q while industrial production declined by 0.4% and construction by 1.0% q/q . In other data out of the UK, BBA mortgage approvals fell to 40.1k in April, down from 45.1k and well off the median forecast for a more modest decline to 44.7k. The outcome is also the lowest since March last year. The sharp rise in transaction taxes for investment properties, which was implemented in April, along with the Brexit issue (Remainers have been arguing that leaving the EU will hit house prices), are getting the blame. Sterling took a tumble in the wake of the data releases, putting Cable at an intraday low of 1.4677 after earlier logging a three-week high at 1.4739.  A close above 1.4700 on the daily time frame would be very interesting for the BULLS.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

USDJPY – WILD OVERNIGHT SWING AND NOW LONG

Forex Analysis
2016-05-26_11-35-41

USDJPY, H4     

Yesterday (May 25) I posted a news report on the US Markit Services PMI being a little softer than expected but that the USD had shrugged that news off and appeared to be comfortably above the 110 level. It also looked that sentiment was taking the USD higher over the coming hours as the US stock markets had had a great Tuesday and Wednesday was looking to support the USD too. The chart I posted was the USDJPY, H4 below, support around the109.77 level and Fridays high at 110.60 area.

2016-05-25_16-59-18

Today (May 26)  it was interesting to see such a rapid spike and move down overnight with nothing or little to explain it – see the TOP chart above. The recovery this morning, back again over 110.00, suggests that it was a big seller of the JPY (probably in Asia) and they were filled over night and that last Friday’s 110.60 area is again in reach. The risk reward on the trade today is acceptable, yesterday the target was too close to justify the entry.

However, a break and breach below 109.20 would suggest more YEN strength into next week as confirmed by the Daily chart below.

2016-05-26_13-02-37

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US MARKIT SERVICES PMI SOFTER THAN EXPECTED

Forex Analysis
2016-05-25_16-59-18

USDJPY, H4     

US Markit reported its flash services PMI stumbled to 51.2 in May after increasing to 52.8 in April from 51.3 in March. The index has been correcting from the February drop to 49.7, but this slowing in activity is a bit of a disappointment. It was 56.2 a year ago. Employment slid to 51.8 from 53.1 from 54.0 in March, and is the lowest print since December 2014. Prices charged did rise, however, to the highest since November 2015. The flash composite index dropped to 50.8 from last month’s 52.4 and compares to 51.3 in March. The employment component softened to 51.7 from 52.6, and is the lowest since April 2014. But as with the services index, the price component rose and hit its highest since July 2015. USDJPY has peaked at 110.41, within sight of Friday’s 110.61three-week high. Support has come from a second session of risk-on conditions, with Wall Street set to add to Tuesday’s sharp gains. Improved odds for a June Fed rate hike has been dollar friendly more broadly, even with these softer than expected Markit numbers.       

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US New Home Sales Surge 16.6%

Forex Analysis
2016-05-24_17-19-38

EURUSD, H1     

US new home sales surged 16.6% to a 619k annual rate in April, wow, the highest since January 2008, after a 1.3% drop in March to 531k (revised from 511k). February’s 519k was bumped to 538k for a net 44k upward revision. The months’ supply dropped to 4.7 from 5.5 (revised from 5.8). Regionally, sales were up in 3 of the 4 regions covered, paced by strength in the South and West, with the Midwest posting the only decline on the month. The median sales price bounced 7.8% to $321,100 from a revised $297,900 (was $288,000). That’s up 9.7% y/y. The strength in this report is a big surprise and should leave Treasury yields pressured higher. The dollar rallied marginally to session highs following the strong new home sales data. EURUSD edged under 1.1150 from 1.1165, as USD-JPY topped 109.90 from near 109.80.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP Triggered & German ZEW Declines

Forex Analysis
2016-05-24_15-49-18

EURGBP,  H1     

German ZEW sentiment survey fell to a 6.4 reading from 11.2 in the previous month. The median had been for a rise to 11.7. The rekindling of Fed rate hike expectations as soon as next month, along with Brexit concerns, with the UK’s vote on EU membership now only a month away, have weighed on the index. The current situations component painted a starkly different picture, leaping to a 53.1 reading from 47.7 in the previous month. ZEW noted that despite the strong growth of the Germany economy, “uncertainties regarding developments such as a possible Brexit currently inhibit a more optimistic outlook.” German Q1 GDP, was confirmed at +0.7% q/q,. A Brexit poll by ORB showed a jump in those favouring “Remain” to 55% versus 42% for “Leave,” which has propelled sterling back above 1.4500 against the dollar. UK bookmaker Ladbrokes is now giving 81% odds for the Brits to vote for remaining in the EU at the Jun-23 referendum, up from 79% yesterday and 71% that were being given at the beginning of last week.

I wrote last week (May 19) “The EURGBP looks to have a downside Target 1 0.7530 – 0.7500 and the 200 DMA, further down 0.7420 is a Weekly support and 61.8 FIB, and  finally  0.7330 is the 2016 low.  The big move in the pair yesterday was three times the normal daily range. It broke through the March and February lows around 0.7720-0.7700 and closed exactly on the 38.2 Fibonacci level and outside the lower Bollinger band.  Following such a large move my entry would be triggered on a retracement to the 0.7720 – 0.7770 area”.  So we are now SHORT EURGBP.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Manufacturing output at six year low

Forex Analysis
2016-05-23_16-56-44

USDJPY,  H1     

U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.5 in flash print for May, the lowest since September 2009. The index fell to 50.8 in April from 51.5 in March. It was 54.0 a year ago. The index hit a high of 57.9 in August 2014 and has generally been on a downward trajectory ever since. New orders declined versus April and are expanding at the slowest rate since December 2015, in large part thanks to weakness from foreign demand. But, input prices rose for a second straight month, though inflation remained moderate overall and was running at a slower overall pace than the series average. The squeeze on US manufacturing continues with a strengthening USD, insipid global demand and the FED looking to hike interest rates, it’s not getting any easier. USDJPY trading above day lows at 109.40 but off the 110 handle by some way today.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Mixed EUR data undermines the common currency

Forex Analysis
2016-05-23_12-53-54

EURUSD, H1     

The Eurozone continues to confuse with mixed data this morning; The flash Markit Eurozone PMI hit a 16-month low of 52.9 in the May composite reading of the manufacturing and services surveys. This was slightly down on the 53.0 reading for April, and contrasts the median forecast for an improvement to 53.3. Markit says that the indicator points to Q2 GDP growth of 0.3%, would be an slowdown from Q1’s 0.5%. From among the components of the survey, the rate of new work in fell to the lowest level in 17 months, while the confidence reading for the services sector fell to a 10-month low.

Meanwhile Germany the area’s largest and most economy Flash PMI data for May beat expectations, with the composite of the manufacturing and services surveys rising to a 54.7 in the headline reading, up from 53.6 in April and exceeding the Bloomberg median for a more modest rise to 53.9. Markit advises caution, however, as “there was evidence that some companies raised activity levels in order to process backlogged work, rather than as a result of rising new business,” also noting a slowing pace of improvement in new orders.

Technically, it looks like 1.1200 beckons with a lot of volatility around this significant round number. The Daily has 100 DMA at 1.1160 and 200 DMA below 1.1120. The 1 Hour chart appears a little range bound in a tight 35 pip range between 1.1230 – 1.1195. The generally weak EUR data has not helped the buyers this morning.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Canadian Inflation Ticks up

Forex Analysis
2016-05-20_16-02-14

USDCAD, H1      

Canada’s CPI accelerated to a 1.7% y/y pace in April, as expected (median +1.7%) from the 1.3% y/y pace in March. CPI rose 0.3% on a month comparable basis in April (median +0.4%) after the 0.6% bounce in March. The BoC’s core CPI index gained 0.2% m/m in April after the stunning 0.7% gain in March. Annual core CPI growth expanded at a 2.2% y/y rate in April, faster than anticipated (median +2.1%) after running at a 2.1% clip in March. The acceleration in core CPI leaves the measure at the fastest annual pace since the 2.4% clip in July of 2015.

USDCAD rallied from 1.3090 lows to 1.3117 following the Canadian data, which revealed weaker than expected retail sales, and a slightly cooler headline CPI print. WTI crude prices continue to move away from their trend highs, now at session lows of $48.39, also USDCAD supportive. The pair has had a strong week and is showing no particular signs of giving much back, it opened the week at 1.2932.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.