Signals Articles

US New Home Sales Surge 16.6%

Forex Analysis
2016-05-24_17-19-38

EURUSD, H1     

US new home sales surged 16.6% to a 619k annual rate in April, wow, the highest since January 2008, after a 1.3% drop in March to 531k (revised from 511k). February’s 519k was bumped to 538k for a net 44k upward revision. The months’ supply dropped to 4.7 from 5.5 (revised from 5.8). Regionally, sales were up in 3 of the 4 regions covered, paced by strength in the South and West, with the Midwest posting the only decline on the month. The median sales price bounced 7.8% to $321,100 from a revised $297,900 (was $288,000). That’s up 9.7% y/y. The strength in this report is a big surprise and should leave Treasury yields pressured higher. The dollar rallied marginally to session highs following the strong new home sales data. EURUSD edged under 1.1150 from 1.1165, as USD-JPY topped 109.90 from near 109.80.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP Triggered & German ZEW Declines

Forex Analysis
2016-05-24_15-49-18

EURGBP,  H1     

German ZEW sentiment survey fell to a 6.4 reading from 11.2 in the previous month. The median had been for a rise to 11.7. The rekindling of Fed rate hike expectations as soon as next month, along with Brexit concerns, with the UK’s vote on EU membership now only a month away, have weighed on the index. The current situations component painted a starkly different picture, leaping to a 53.1 reading from 47.7 in the previous month. ZEW noted that despite the strong growth of the Germany economy, “uncertainties regarding developments such as a possible Brexit currently inhibit a more optimistic outlook.” German Q1 GDP, was confirmed at +0.7% q/q,. A Brexit poll by ORB showed a jump in those favouring “Remain” to 55% versus 42% for “Leave,” which has propelled sterling back above 1.4500 against the dollar. UK bookmaker Ladbrokes is now giving 81% odds for the Brits to vote for remaining in the EU at the Jun-23 referendum, up from 79% yesterday and 71% that were being given at the beginning of last week.

I wrote last week (May 19) “The EURGBP looks to have a downside Target 1 0.7530 – 0.7500 and the 200 DMA, further down 0.7420 is a Weekly support and 61.8 FIB, and  finally  0.7330 is the 2016 low.  The big move in the pair yesterday was three times the normal daily range. It broke through the March and February lows around 0.7720-0.7700 and closed exactly on the 38.2 Fibonacci level and outside the lower Bollinger band.  Following such a large move my entry would be triggered on a retracement to the 0.7720 – 0.7770 area”.  So we are now SHORT EURGBP.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Manufacturing output at six year low

Forex Analysis
2016-05-23_16-56-44

USDJPY,  H1     

U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.5 in flash print for May, the lowest since September 2009. The index fell to 50.8 in April from 51.5 in March. It was 54.0 a year ago. The index hit a high of 57.9 in August 2014 and has generally been on a downward trajectory ever since. New orders declined versus April and are expanding at the slowest rate since December 2015, in large part thanks to weakness from foreign demand. But, input prices rose for a second straight month, though inflation remained moderate overall and was running at a slower overall pace than the series average. The squeeze on US manufacturing continues with a strengthening USD, insipid global demand and the FED looking to hike interest rates, it’s not getting any easier. USDJPY trading above day lows at 109.40 but off the 110 handle by some way today.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Mixed EUR data undermines the common currency

Forex Analysis
2016-05-23_12-53-54

EURUSD, H1     

The Eurozone continues to confuse with mixed data this morning; The flash Markit Eurozone PMI hit a 16-month low of 52.9 in the May composite reading of the manufacturing and services surveys. This was slightly down on the 53.0 reading for April, and contrasts the median forecast for an improvement to 53.3. Markit says that the indicator points to Q2 GDP growth of 0.3%, would be an slowdown from Q1’s 0.5%. From among the components of the survey, the rate of new work in fell to the lowest level in 17 months, while the confidence reading for the services sector fell to a 10-month low.

Meanwhile Germany the area’s largest and most economy Flash PMI data for May beat expectations, with the composite of the manufacturing and services surveys rising to a 54.7 in the headline reading, up from 53.6 in April and exceeding the Bloomberg median for a more modest rise to 53.9. Markit advises caution, however, as “there was evidence that some companies raised activity levels in order to process backlogged work, rather than as a result of rising new business,” also noting a slowing pace of improvement in new orders.

Technically, it looks like 1.1200 beckons with a lot of volatility around this significant round number. The Daily has 100 DMA at 1.1160 and 200 DMA below 1.1120. The 1 Hour chart appears a little range bound in a tight 35 pip range between 1.1230 – 1.1195. The generally weak EUR data has not helped the buyers this morning.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Canadian Inflation Ticks up

Forex Analysis
2016-05-20_16-02-14

USDCAD, H1      

Canada’s CPI accelerated to a 1.7% y/y pace in April, as expected (median +1.7%) from the 1.3% y/y pace in March. CPI rose 0.3% on a month comparable basis in April (median +0.4%) after the 0.6% bounce in March. The BoC’s core CPI index gained 0.2% m/m in April after the stunning 0.7% gain in March. Annual core CPI growth expanded at a 2.2% y/y rate in April, faster than anticipated (median +2.1%) after running at a 2.1% clip in March. The acceleration in core CPI leaves the measure at the fastest annual pace since the 2.4% clip in July of 2015.

USDCAD rallied from 1.3090 lows to 1.3117 following the Canadian data, which revealed weaker than expected retail sales, and a slightly cooler headline CPI print. WTI crude prices continue to move away from their trend highs, now at session lows of $48.39, also USDCAD supportive. The pair has had a strong week and is showing no particular signs of giving much back, it opened the week at 1.2932.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Strong UK Retail sales = More GBP strength

Forex Analysis
2016-05-19_13-39-55

EURGBP, Daily      

Sterling has lifted on the surge in UK retail sales in April data released earlier. Cable rallied to a 16-day peak of 1.4663, and EURGBP fell to its lowest level since Feb-4, of 0.7649, with subsequent bounces so far being curtailed by fresh selling. Retail sales surged 4.3% y/y versus the median forecast for a 2.5% rise, with the m/m comparison lifting by 1.3%. March data were revised higher too, to -0.5% m/m from -1.3%, and to +3.0% y/y from +2.7%. The data tallies with yesterday’s labour market report showing a new record high level of employment and a hotter than expected +2.0% y/y rise in average household income (ex-bonuses). The data also mitigates concerns that Brexit uncertainties might have been affecting consumer-sector activity.

All very interesting and we could have reached a Tipping Point in the referendum debate too.  I am bullish sterling from here anticipating that Brits will vote to remain in the EU at the Jun-23 referendum.  This will start to be priced into GBP over the coming weeks, (there are five weeks left until polling day). GBPUSD broke through 146.00 yesterday and a break over 147.00 would be needed  for more GBP strength, however, with a June / July FED hike now looking probable instead of possible the better trade looks like the EURGBP.

The EURGBP looks to have a downside Target 1 0.7530 – 0.7500 and the 200 DMA, further down 0.7420 is a Weekly support and 61.8 FIB, and finally  0.7330 is the 2016 low.

The big move in the pair yesterday was three times the normal daily range. It broke through the March and February lows around 0.7720-0.7700 and closed exactly on the 38.2 Fibonacci level and outside the lower Bollinger band.  Following such a large move my entry would be triggered on a retracement to the 0.7720 – 0.7770 area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

UK Labour Data Positive – Sterling Lower

Forex Analysis
2016-05-18_12-08-46

GBPUSD, H1      

UK labour data showed an unexpected rise in pay, Average household income (excluding bonuses) lifting to a +2.0% y/y rate in the three months to March, up from 1.8% at the last measure. The bonus-included figure remained unchanged at +2.1% y/y. Unemployment for March remained unchanged at the cycle low of 5.1%, while the April claimant count dipped by 2.4k and the claimant rate remained unchanged at 2.1%. The pound very briefly rallied on the data in a knee-jerk reaction to the BoE-watched pay headline, but quickly turned lower.  GBPUSD currently trading at day lows of 1.4410, with the One Hour chart  having broken below some key moving averages and outside the lower Bollinger band.

The Brexit issue continues to dominate the horizon for sterling markets. The latest FT poll of polls has the Remain group on 46% the Leave campaign on 44% and the undecided down to 10%. A little over five weeks to referendum day and the polls continue to be erratic, no wonder GBP keeps finding sellers.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US CPI better than expected at 0.4%

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-05-17_15-48-26

US CPI popped up by 0.4% in April with the core rate up 0.2%, in line with expectations. There were no revisions to prior data where March posted gains of 0.1% for both the headline and the ex-food and energy component. The annual headline pace rose to 1.1% from 0.9% y/y in March, with the core slowing slightly to 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y; it’s a 6th straight month with a 2 handle. Energy prices were up 3.4% after the 0.9% March gain broke a string of 3 straight monthly declines. Transportation jumped 1.6%. Housing costs were up 0.2%. Food/beverage costs edged up 0.2%. Medical care was 0.3% higher. Commodities rose 0.6%. Apparel slid 0.3%.

EURUSD reacted slightly lower as improved inflation data supports the view that the Fed will hike the rates this year. Our view is that there will two rate hikes in the latter half of the year. I’m expecting the first hike will be announced in the June meeting even though the date is near the British EU referendum. The nearest EURUSD support and 4h resistance levels are at 1.1282 and 1.1340.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Sterling Strong – Awaiting CPI data

Forex Analysis

GBPUSD, Daily      

Sterling has rallied strongly on news that the latest Brexit poll by ORB shows 55% wanting to remain in the EU and just 40% wanting to leave. Ladbrokes now giving 75% odds for UK to remain in the EU, up from 71% this time yesterday. The poll was reported in the Daily Telegraph newspaper, with the The Guardian newspaper publishing a separate  ICM poll showing the Remain camp 8% ahead of the Leave. GBPUSD continued to rally is currently trading over 1.4500 at new weekly highs at 1.4515.

Interestingly,  the Daily candle found support at the 50 DMA yesterday at 1.4340, with the 20 DMA higher at 1.4475.

UK CPI data is published at 08:30 GMT and expectations are for unchanged data at 0.5% year on year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

USDZAR – Hits Target 1 & remains interesting

Forex Analysis
2016-05-16_13-44-11

USDZAR, Daily      

Last Tuesday (May 10th) I posted “The USDZAR broke some key levels yesterday and looks to be in a bullish up move:

  • Last week it rallied to the 23.6 Fib level and the psychological round number at 15.0000.
  • It finally closed above 15.0000 yesterday having reached the level in the three previous trading sessions but was unable to breach the level. So we have had a fairly typical, reach, breach and broken pattern.
  • Yesterday’s close (15.1650) was also at a key level, which had previously been support, during February and March, and had turned to resistance for April. A close today over this level indicates strength for this pair.

I will be looking for Target 1 area around 15.5000 – 15.5380 and Target 2 around 16.0000 – 16.3000”

At the time the pair was trading at 15.2322 it closed the day below the important 15.1650 level and traded as low as 14.8883 on Thursday. However, following the strong US retail sales and sentiment data on Friday the pair rallied into the close and earlier today the trade reached its Target 1 for a net gain of over 300 pips.

Today’s US calendar is fairly uneventful. The May Empire State report headlines. We expect a dip to 7.0 after surging about 9 points to 9.6 in April. The May NAHB housing market index is seen improving to 59 from 58.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.