Signals Articles

USDCAD Soars on Poor Canadian Data

Forex Analysis
2016-09-23_15-58-38

USDCAD, Daily              

Two key Canadian data points both miss expectations data. Canada retail sales slipped 0.1% in July, contrary to expectations (median +0.2%) and following the 0.1% dip in June. The ex-autos sales aggregate dipped 0.1% in July, also not as expected (median +0.4%) after the revised 0.6% tumble in June (was -0.8%). Excluding gasoline prices, retail sales values grew 0.2% in July. Moreover, falling prices in general were a key driver during July for total sales values, as total sales volumes expanded 0.3% m/m in July. The improvement in actual sales (as opposed to the dollar value of those sales) is consistent with a projection for a 0.2% m/m gain in July GDP after the 0.6% surge in June. The separate real Q3 GDP measure is on track for a 3.2% rebound following the 1.6% drop in Q2.

Also Canadian CPI slowed to a 1.1% y/y rate in August, which was much slower than anticipated (median +1.4%) after expanding at a 1.3% clip in July. Total CPI fell 0.2% m/m in August (median +0.1%) following the matching 0.2% drop in July. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure slowed to a 1.8% y/y pace in August (median +2.1%) from the 2.1% y/y growth rate in July. The core CPI was flat in August, matching the flat reading in July.

USDCAD spiked up to 1.3140 highs from 1.3035 following the cooler Canada CPI and softer retail sales outcome. Firmed oil prices weighed on the pairing, though the weaker data more than unwound those CAD gains.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPCAD Hits Target 1 as Oil moves up

Forex Analysis
2016-09-22_14-52-09

GBPCAD, Daily              

The pound has settled following its recent two-week period of underperformance. The Fed’s less hawkish than anticipated guidance has given Cable a prop but the rally in the Oil price has helped the CAD tick up and the GBPCAD SHORT trade to reach Target 1 (1.7022). This 180 pip gain from the entry on Tuesday (September 20) takes the net gain for the four GBP positions to 954 pips this month.

The oil price has been a major mover in the last few days and again today it is up another 1%, reflecting in part the generally weaker dollar and in part by the risk-on vibe that the Fed’s less hawkish than expected stance generated. The Brent future benchmark (UK Oil) is presently showing a 0.9% gain, at $47.24 and the WTI (USOil) at $45.89. This takes the week-on-week gain to 1.4% while month-on-month, oil prices are still down by 5.4%, reflecting bigger-picture markets concerns of the supply glut lasting into 2017. Next weeks meetings at the 15th International Energy Forum (IEF15) in Algiers may involve formal rather than informal talks between OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Bloomberg reported that the cartel is looking to cut crude supplies by 1 million barrels a day to re-balance markets and stabilize prices.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Fed helped cable to turn a corner ?

Forex Analysis
2016-09-22_10-27-46

GBPUSD, Daily              

The pound has settled following its recent two-week period of underperformance. The Fed’s less hawkish than anticipated guidance has given Cable a prop. Cable logged a five-week low at 1.2945 ahead of the Fed’s announcement yesterday before vaulting over 1.3050, but sterling is still down by an average 1.8% versus the G3 currencies on a week-on-week comparison. The pound is also down by an average 19.9% versus the G3 currencies on a year-on-year basis.

Cable resistance is at 1.3154-55 and 1.3189-90, levels which encompass a triple head of three-week trend resistance and the 20- and 50-day moving averages and the Parabolic SAR remains negative. Declining business investment in the face of protracted Brexit uncertainties suggests that sterling will remain biased lower into quarter four and 2017. However, in the shorter term daily candle the Tweezer Bottom on Tuesday (September 20) suggest some further strength against the longer term down trend. Should the 1.3070 level be breached and broken on the Daily candle then Target 1 at 1.3150 is a possibility along with a run back to Target 2 at 1.3300 once resistance at 1.3190-1.3200 area is overcome.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Gold looking Bullish again

Forex Analysis
2016-09-22_11-22-38

XAUUSD, Daily              

Gold hit a two week high yesterday (September 21) following the FED rate announcement, and closed at 1335.18. Technically it broke up through and closed above the 20 DMA and the 50 DMA on the Daily chart. Although one strong candle does not an autumn move make, it was significant as it also closed above the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level from the July high of 1374.89 and the August low of 1304.52.

The higher time frame Monthly chart remains bullish, whilst the Weekly chart is neutral and has support around 1315 and resistance at 1350. The Parabolic SAR remains negative and I expect some profit taking and a retracement from current levels, however a close above 1325 remains positive, following all the central bank announcements this week.  Additionally,  late September tends to be a strong time of the year for gold as the Asian wedding season starts in earnest.  An entry at 1333.40 was triggered with Target 1 at the psychological 1350.00, north of the Bollinger band and the 61.8 Fib level at 1348.00 and Target 2 below the July high at 1366.00.

The 1315-1310 zone should provide longer term support and below that 1304 and 1300.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP Hits Target 2 – Sterling Suffering

Forex Analysis
2016-09-21_17-18-47

EURGBP, Daily              

The third of the GBP short positions that had been initiated earlier in the month also hit Target 2 yesterday (September 20).  The EURGBP LONG entry at 0.8460 from September 12 spiked to Target 2 (0.8624) yesterday as the woes continued for sterling.  These three trades have netted in excess of 770 pips.

Meanwhile, an interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal suggests what the Fed signals today will be more important than the headline policy decision. According to a WSJ report, especially in the summary of economic projections and the press conference. The WSJ takes a look at 5 areas specifically: 1) A December Signal? 2) The Path Forward? 3) What’s the Risk? 4) Where’s Full Employment? and 5) Dissents? These are mostly self-explanatory, but highlight whether Yellen and Co. will give a more concrete signal about December, how they will characterize the rate path (dots), if they reassess the balance of risk, how they define full employment, wage trends and explain low inflation, and will they keep everyone on board in doing so? This is a good framework for considering the aftermath of the decision.

The USD currently trades at EURUSD 1.1142, USDJPY 100.76 and GBPUSD 1.2960 before the announcement and the following press conference.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURAUD Rolled over to Target 1

Forex Analysis
2016-09-21_12-40-34

EURAUD, Daily              

Yesterday I wrote “The EURAUD rallied strongly from the August low below 1.4450 to a high at 1.5065 last Thursday (September 14). The high was capped for three days by the 200 DMA, and the subsequent fall broke the 20 DMA yesterday. This three candle down move and break and hold of the 20 DMA on the Daily timeframe, triggered a SHORT position at 1.4820, with Target 1 at 1.4700 and Target 2 at 1.4580.

The strong down move continued yesterday. Target 1 at the psychological 1.4700, and the 50 DMA were breached earlier today for a gain of 120 pips.  If the pair close today below the 1.4700 level and the Parabolic SAR remains positive then further downside to Target 2 (1.4580) is possible.  Today would be the 5th strong down day following the rejection of the 200 DMA on September 15, so some relief in the down move could be expected, the short term stochastics are over sold.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURAUD Rolling over after rejecting 200DMA

Forex Analysis
2016-09-20_12-33-53

EURAUD, Daily              

As global markets await the thoughts of the BoJ and the FOMC tomorrow (Wednesday) another currency pair appear to be rolling over and returning to their longer term downtrend.

The EURAUD rallied strongly from the August low below 1.4450 to a high at 1.5065 last Thursday (September 14). The high was capped for three days by the 200 DMA, and the subsequent fall broke the 20 DMA yesterday. This three candle down move and break and hold of the 20 DMA on the Daily timeframe, triggered a SHORT position at 1.4820, with Target 1 at 1.4700 and Target 2 at 1.4580.

The longer term Monthly chart is also trading below its 20 period MA and also has support around the 1.4700 level. The 14 Day ATR is currently around 150 but the Parabolic SAR has yet to revert.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Housing Starts sag too

Forex Analysis
2016-09-20_16-24-42

GBPUSD, Daily              

U.S. housing starts underperformed with a 5.8% August drop after small upward revisions, with a 0.4% permits decline that left a weak report overall, though both measures appear poised for quarterly gains in Q3 with persistent growth in starts under construction. Starts weakness was concentrated in the south, though it was spread across the single and multi-family components. Starts and permits continue to ratchet higher from weak Q4 levels.

The dollar dipped following the housing starts data, which were much worse than expected. EURUSD ticked up 10 points to 1.1186, as USDJPY fell to 101.78 from over 101.85. However, the pound is the day’s loser, showing 0.5% declines versus the dollar and euro and a 0.6% fall versus the yen and trading at or near one-month lows against all of the G3 currencies. It’s all about Brexit, which, after a summer lull of political activity and a run of data showing a better than expected economic rebound from the initial post-vote wobble, is back at the centre of investors’ big-picture concerns. Earlier in the month, for instance, Japan’s foreign minister published a 15-page document warning that Japanese companies in the UK, which have created 440k jobs, would consider moving to the EU if Britain did not retain full access to the single market, avoids customs controls on exports, and continues “passporting” rights that allows UK-based non-EU businesses to trade across the EU. A report from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority today, meanwhile, showed that 5,500 UK-registered firms rely on “passports” to do business in the EU. So far the only guidance from the UK government, which is grappling with the magnitude of task ahead, is that “Brexit means Brexit,” which has done little answer the core question of whether the Britain is heading for a hard exit or a soft exit, the latter being a scenario where full access to the single market remains, but at the likely cost of not taking back full border controls.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPCAD adds to Sterling Weakness

Forex Analysis
2016-09-20_15-16-48

GBPCAD, Daily              

The pressure on the pound continued today following some relief yesterday. The GBPUSD (Cable) level at 1.30000 remains a very key area, buyers came in around here yesterday but so far today its GBP being sold short and the pair are currently trading at 1.2970 with worries over upcoming Brexit negotiations beginning to weigh significantly.

The GBPCAD breached and broke the key 20 DMA on Friday following the rejection of the 200 DMA last Wednesday and Thursday. Yesterdays close below the 20 DMA and the turn of the Parabolic SAR on Friday suggested further weakness and a SHORT trade was entered on Mondays close at 1.7202.  The 50 DMA could provide support before a further move lower to Target 1 at 1.7022 and further down to Target 2 at 1.6830.

Weakness in the Oil price is hampering the CAD currently; however, the on-going uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations continue to undermine the pound.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPJPY & Cable Hit Target 2 – Sterling Sags

Forex Analysis
2016-09-19_16-03-31

GBPJPY, Daily              

Sterling suffered on Friday from reports on Bloomberg that the UK finance minister (Philip Hammond) is ready to accept the fact that the UK may have to give up single-market membership in the European Union to achieve the immigration restrictions voters  demanded in the Brexit vote.  Cable closed the day and week down 1.8 percent and GBPJPY slumped from north of 135.00 to close under 133.00.

The slip in sterling has helped both our SHORT GBP trades reach Target 2 – GBYJPY (132.80) and GBPUSD (1.3070) for a net gain on both trades of over 600 pips.

2016-09-19_16-58-32

Today the USD has traded softer and corrected some of its outperformance from Friday, Market conditions have been thin with Tokyo markets absent and with market participants largely on the sidelines ahead of the Fed and BoJ policy decisions this week. USDJPY ebbed back under 102.00, breached Friday’s low on route to a four-session low at 101.69. EURUSD traded in a narrow orbit of 1.1150. Cable recouped some of the sharp losses seen on Friday, lifting above 1.3080, well over half a big figure up on the day.

However, the close of the day and week below the psychological 1.3000 level is definitely one to watch. Next break lower would be the August low of 1.2860, the post Brexit low of 1.2780 and then 1.2500.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.