Free Forex Signals for 07.07.2015

EURUSD, Daily

After a smaller than previous gap opening EURUSD rallied to a resistance at Friday’s close and turned lower as the buyers failed to challenge the sellers at the resistance. Trading Greek related politics is difficult, if not impossible and that leaves us with technicals. Technically EURUSD is inside a potential support area but still relatively close to a weekly low from two weeks ago (1.1130) and is now trading outside the upward trend channel. This and the lower high in mid-June suggest that the pair might come lower this week. Current trading takes place just above a support (1.0948) but there isn’t much upside momentum and the nearest resistance at 1.1032 isrelatively close. This should dampen the bulls’ readiness to bid the prices higher. This could lead to sideways trading today. Daily support and resistance levels: 1.0930 and 1.1135.

European markets in general are holding their breath ahead of today’s Eurogroup and EU leaders meetings. Bund and Gilt yields continue to decline as stocks remain under pressure, although losses on FTSE and DAX remain limited so far and peripheral Eurozone 10-year yields outside of Greece came off yesterday’s highs. Officials stress that they want to keep Greece in the Eurozone, but also that that still requires firm reform commitments from Greece. So all eyes are once again on Tsipras and his new Finance Minister.

The latter may represent more of a change in style than substance, however, and it remains unclear what proposals both will bring to Brussels. What is clear is that with the ECB tightening the pressure by raising the haircut on Greek collateral substantially today’s round of meetings really represent Greece’s last chance to prevent default and Grexit.

Greece’s last chance to come to an agreementand avoid bankruptcy is a quick deal or at least the firm progress of one at today’s Eurogroup meeting that will be followed by an EU summit in the evening. Hollande and Merkel stressed again yesterday that time is running out and the ECB tightened the pressure on banks by raising the haircut on Greek collateral – reportedly to 45%. Banks will remain closed today and tomorrow, but without a deal it will be almost impossible to open them again quickly and the government will likely face troubles at tomorrow’s T-bill auction. Grexit will almost become inevitable. If there is a deal, ECB’s Nowotny suggested that the ECB could provide bridge financing. So once again all hinges on Greece’s proposals and its willingness to compromise.

ECB also lifted haircut on Greek collateral, while maintaining ELA assistance to Greek banks for now. The decision will increase pressure on Greece ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting and EU summit. It will also put local banks in a difficult position ahead of Wednesday’s T-Bill sale. The Greek government has been relying on rolling over T-bills to keep afloat, with Greek banks and institutions the only takers. With the fresh increase on the haircut, it will be increasingly costly for Greek banks to hold Greek government debt.

US June ISM services index edged up to 56.0 from May’s 55.7 as per yesterday’s release. However the 57.8 in April is still the highest of the year, while the 58.8 in November was cycle high since November 2005. However, components were mixed. The employment index fell to 52.7 from 55.3. New orders rose to 58.3 from 57.9, while new export orders declined to 52.0 from 55.0. Prices paid slid to 53.0 from 55.9.  Also, US Markit services PMI fell to 54.8 in the final June print versus May’s 56.2 (and 54.8 June preliminary). It’s the lowest since January’s 54.2 and reflects continued slowing in the expansion. A year ago the reading was 61.0. Employment slid to 54.1 versus 55.5 in May, though the expansion in the job sector has persisted for 64 straight months. The composite index dropped to 54.6 from 56.0 in May (and 54.6 for the June preliminary). It is also the lowest since January.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance 

We’ve seen USD and JPY strength today together with some movement in favour of  CHF which suggests that there is a tendency to look for a safe haven. This is understandable with Greek drama continuing and global stock markets being weak, especially the Chinese stocks. EUR has been slightly weak almost across the board but has taken a hammering against the USD and JPY. With GBP and AUD the the storyline is very similar.

 

Main Macro Events Today

• German industrial production unchanged over the month in May, with April revised down to 0.6% m/m from 0.9% m/m reported initially. The annual rate jumped to 2.1% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month. Yesterday’s orders number also showed a sharp uptick over the year, but confidence indicators already suggest that the momentum is running out of steam. At the same time the tight German labour market has led to a wave of industrial actions and sizeable wage gains. This year consumption may be able to sustain ongoing growth, but the likely loss of competitiveness could well lead to German underperformance in coming years.
• UK industrial production unexpectedly rose by 0.4% m/m (median -0.2%) in May after 0.3% growth in April (revised from 0.4%). The y/y figure registered 2.1% growth (median 1.6%), up from 1.2% in the previous month. A solid 7.3% rise in oil and gas production was behind the strength. The narrower manufacturing outlook data, which is more reflective of economic trends, disappointed, unexpectedly falling 0.6% m/m (Bloomberg median +0.1%), worsening from April’s -0.6% m/m figure. The y/y figure was +1.0% y/y (Bloomberg median 1.8%) after 0.1% in April (revised down from 0.2%). Sterling initially spiked on the strong industrial headline, but has since dropped to net lower levels against both the dollar and euro as markets disgust the weak manufacturing output data.
• US Trade Balance: The May trade deficit is expected to narrow 5.8% to -$38.5 bln after narrowing 19.2% to -$40.9 bln in April. Exports in May are expected to grow 1.0% while imports show a -0.2% decrease on the month. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed oil prices could impact imports. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data would push back rate hike assumptions.
• US Consumer Credit: The May consumer credit report is out on today and should reveal a $18 bln (median $18.5 bln) increase for the month following a $20.5 bln increase in April and a $21.3 bln gain in March. Over the past year the headline has averaged $18.2 bln, about in line with our forecast.
• EU Extraordinary Summit

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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