FX News Today
The EURUSD pair dropped nearly 240 pips yesterday while EU stock markets jumped on the comments from the ECB president Mario Draghi that the European Central Bank is “committed to further easing”. Traders took this comment as a clue that the ECB is not happy with having a strong currency in the current Eurozone economic environment. The EURUSD Asia session reached a low at 1.1072. EURJPY dropped into a multi-week low, and the EURGBP has broken its 100-day moving average at 0.7213, trading on the downside side of this average for the first time since late summer. Since it is now clear that the ECB is fearful of a stronger EUR, the EUR is likely to stay under general pressure. However, the EURUSD price may bounce a bit before any test of 1.1000 round number.
The ECB’S comments yesterday sparked a rally on stock markets that continued in both Asia and U.S. stock markets. Further gains in Europe stock markets looks likely as the ECB prepares for additional easing measures.
Main Macro Events Today
• EUR Market PMI: French, German Composite PMIs surprise on the upside. France reported a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI to 50.7 from 50.6 and a rise in the services reading to 52.3 from 51.9. Germany meanwhile saw a slight decline in the manufacturing number to 51.6 from 52.3, but a jump in the services reading to 55.2 from 54.2. The latter left the composite at 54.5 up from 54.1 in September. In France the composite improved to 52.3 from 51.9, indicating acceleration in overall economic activity against expectations for declines in both countries.
• CAD Consumer Price Index: It’s expected CPI to expand at a 1.2% y/y pace in September, a slowdown from the 1.3% y/y clip in July and August. CPI is seen as flat on a month comparable basis in September after the identical flat reading in August. Gas prices plunged 7.5% in September compared to August, which is expected to weigh on month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.3% in September, a bit stronger than the usual 0.2% gain seen during the month as currency weakness provides and extra boost. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in September following the 2.1% clip in August. The expected core CPI figure would, of course, leave the measure at the BoC’s 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions.
• USD Market Manufacturing PMI: Consensus calls for a 52.8 number vs the previous 53.1. The macro data continues to face headwinds from an inventory overhang and a petro-sector recession, even though housing, the labor market, and real consumer spending continue to improve.
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
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