EURGBP Hits Target 1 & UK Retail Sales Miss

October 20, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURGBP, Daily

The first of my LONG positions on sterling hit Target 1 yesterday, it was only for a minute or two but EURGBP spiked down to 0.8900 for a net gain of 116 pips. At the same time the EURUSD and EURJPY SHORT positions came within a few pips of also hitting target, but have both since retraced. The question is how do I feel about this? To be honest the spike to 0.8900 exactly and so quickly could be regarded as fortunate and the closeness of the other two trades could be unlucky. The trick is to treat all three situations the SAME, all the thinking and analysis is done before the post is put together and the positions are triggered. The EUR trades, having come so close to target, could easily now, with some positive news from Mr Draghi’s press conference reverse and move in the opposite direction. Again the trick is to trust your analysis, trade what you see and NEVER risk too much on one single trade.

UK retail sales disappointed in September, coming in flat m/m from a revised 0.0% reading in August. The median forecast had been for a 0.4% m/m rise. The y/y figure was +4.1%, below the median forecast for 4.8% and down from August’s 6.1% y/y reading. Overall, while sub-forecast the data still paints a picture of a buoyant consumer sector, which has held up much better than many had feared following the Breixt vote. But, darker clouds are appearing on the horizon, with inflation generally seen as likely to shoot to around 3.0% by the end of 2017, which will likely erode household prosperity, along with higher energy prices. Then there is Brexit uncertainty, which has seen many firms putting investment and recruitment “on hold,” according to the EY ITEM’s Autumn report, while BoE bank agents surveys have showed businesses expecting Brexit to have a negative effect on capital spending, hiring and turnover.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmuta Janne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

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Macro Events & News for 10.20.2016

October 20, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, as the Dollar strengthened in the wake of the last U.S. presidential debate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Japanese markets and the most recent rise in oil prices is also helping to underpin investor demand. The front end WTI future has come off highs but is holding comfortably above USD 51 per barrel. In Europe the focus is on the ECB meeting and even if policy is likely to remain on hold today, Draghi will hope to keep his options sufficiently open to avoid a temper tantrum as markets focus on further stimulus beyond the current QE program, which ends in March next year. The European calendar also has U.K. retail sales, BoP and current account data from the Eurozone and Swiss trade data at the start of the session.

BOC Rate Decision: Governor Poloz said they actively discussed adding more monetary stimulus before deciding to leave the policy rate unchanged. He said the Governing Council “actively discussed the possibility of adding more monetary stimulus at this time, in order to return to the economy to full capacity.” Yet, they “identified a number of uncertainties in the current framework that are serving to widen the zone of balance within our risk-management framework.” Those uncertainties include “the macroeconomic effects of the new mortgage rates, the likely path of our exports; the impact of the federal government’s fiscal measures…and the effects on business confidence of the U.S. election.” The revelation that they “actively discussed” the possibility of adding more stimulus is not exactly a surprise. Given where the domestic and global economy currently sit, expectations are that this will continued to be discussed but with the same result (no change in rates) to be the same.

Poor Australian Labour Data: The number of jobs fell last month by 9,800, expectations were for an increase of 15,200, also the previous month was revised down to a fall of 8,600 from a fall of 3,900. Fulltime employment for September showed a dramatic fall of 53,000 and August was revised down to 10,500 from 11,500. AUD/USD dropped from around 0.7725 to under 0.7700, spent a few minutes chopping in a small range before slipping further and its under 0.7665 currently. Just as doubts were raised after big employment gains in the past, doubts were raised on big employment losses on today’s figures, the -53K for full time jobs in the month result in particular was greeted with questions.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed moderate (and non-voter) Kaplan sees inflation firming while GDP growth for 2016 will likely average 1.75%, sufficient to drive down unemployment and take some slack out of the labor force. He sees political uncertainty likely affecting capital spending, but once the election is out of the way focus needs to shift to entitlement reform and infrastructure spending. Kaplan also notes that the Fed needs to be “humble” about the limits of monetary policy. Fed’s Potter says the Fed should be prepared to sell MBS, in comments at a Minneapolis Fed conference. Potter is head of the Fed’s Markets Group, so he has a lot of authority behind his words. Though “current FOMC guidance states that the sale of agency MBS is not anticipated…it is prudent for the Desk to be prepared for a wide variety of scenarios, including sales or the need to purchase additional agency MBS.” The large size and structure of the agency MBS market makes it a “desirable choice for conduction operations of the magnitude necessary t have a meaningful impact on financial and macroeconomic conditions.” However, the Fed’s experience with selling MBS is much more limited than purchasing agency paper, he noted. The Fed’s portfolio and possible manipulations of such has been in the news lately, especially after a “twist” operation was broached by Boston Fed’s Rosengren last week.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate Announcement & Press Conference – Even if the ECB more likely to postpone any major decisions until December Draghi will be facing a difficult balancing act at today’s press conference, especially since a Reuters reported suggested that the planned tweaks to the asset purchase program designed to address looming supply shortages could already be discussed this week. At the same time, the question is whether the ECB will extend the QE program beyond March next year, when the current schedule of EUR 80 bln purchases per month is set to end. With growth indicators suggesting ongoing economic expansion and inflation starting to move higher, the ECB clearly is reluctant to add even more stimulus to an already very expansionary policy but the doves at the council will press for a follow up program with the end result likely a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. It will depend on Draghi’s delivery whether this will spook markets as the dreaded “tapering” or whether he can sell it as the further expansion of monetary policy it actually is. For now Draghi will be keeping all his options open and try to deliver a statement that keeps markets guessing and hoping and thus avoids a temper tantrum.

US Philly Fed Index – October Philly Fed should reveal a headline dip to 6.3 after the September bounce to 12.8 from 2.0 in August. The Empire State Index for October is already out and declined to -6.8 from -2.0 in September. Broadly, expectations are for producer sentiment to trend sideways in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 50 from August and September.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 10.20.2016

October 20, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        98.05—-97.50 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 20 pips, Target at the Buttom
EUR/USD     1.1025—-1.0945 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
GBP/USD     1.2360—-1.2240 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CHF     0.9920—-0.9860    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
USD/JPY      103.80—-102.70 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
AUD/USD     0.7770—-0.7670    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3180—-1.3050    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GOLD 1280.00—1261.00    Buy at the Buttom,    Stop Loss 7 $,       Target at the Top
Silver   17.80—17.50 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.15 $,       Target at the Top
Oil       53.00—50.80    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.50 $,     Target at the Top

Keywords:Forex Trading Signals,Forex Trading Strategy,Forex Trading System,Free Forex Analysis,Forex Forecast
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UK Labour data helps GBP to eight day high

October 19, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURGBP, Daily

UK labour data was better than expected with September claimant rate rising 0.7k versus the expected 3.0k gain, while the claimant count rate was unchanged at 2.3% from an upwardly revised 2.3% rate in August. The lagging August unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, while average household income in the three months to August came in with a 2.3% y/y rise in both the ex-bonus and with-bonus figures, perkier than the 2.1% median forecast in the case of the ex-bonus number. Inflation, which leapt to a 22-month high of 1.0% in September, is expected to soon exceed income growth and put a squeeze on many households.

GBP perked up on the release and hit eight day highs. Following yesterday’s rebound which was extended on news that the UK government may have to give parliament a vote on the Brexit deal (which is something the government has been against, arguing that referendum is mandate enough). However, the vote was reported to be after negotiations have finished, by which time parliament will be powerless to stop Brexit. The issue is in the High Court now and will likely move to the Supreme Court. This is a shaping up to be a big constitutional issue, if not crisis, for Britain. Parliamentary involvement in drawing up the negotiating position for the EU exit is seen by markets as increasing the odds for a “soft” Brexit rather than the government-favoured “hard” Brexit. Cable logged an overnight low of 1.2256, but with this release it spiked pair north of 1.2300 again. Technically the pound’s downside momentum has waned significantly and we remain Long GBPUSD and Short EURGBP from yesterday’s analysis.

Macro Events & News for 10.19.2016

October 19, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Better earnings reports from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson bolstered Wall Street overnight. European bourses rallied upwards of 1.25% as well, expecting no let up anytime soon of central bank stimulus. Also, U.S. CPI data was a touch light on the core reading, which was likely a positive outcome for stocks too, though it had little impact on Fed rate hike thinking overall. Bonds rallied too, and Treasury yields slipped from earlier highs after the launch Saudi Arabia’s $10-15 bln multi-tranche bond offering. Strong demand for the paper saw hedges easily unwound. The 1.80% level on the 10-year also capped the upside. The dollar stumbled some, leaving USDJPY under 103.90 into the NA close. Stock markets in Asia have followed the NA session and are generally higher. Gold remains in a tight range at USD 1261 and WTI remains north of USD 50.

Chinese Data: Year on Year GDP confirmed at 6.7% with 3Q QoQ also in line at 1.8. Retail sales for September crept up to 10.7% (expectations and previous 10.6%). However, industrial production fell to 6.1% from 6.3% with expectations had been for a slight rise to 6.4%. The details show weaker exports and investments but a growing housing market and rising consumption. New home sales grew by 43.2% in the first nine months of the year (2015 the growth was 18.25) – credit continues to roll in China.

US Data Reports: The September overall-CPI was 0.3% (median 0.3%), while the core index was 0.1% (median 0.2%). Year over year growth accelerated to 1.5% from 1.1% in September, and the core y/y growth rate was 2.2% from 2.3%. Plunging oil prices kept inflation measures depressed through last winter but we are now seeing a rebound. U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index dipped 2 points to 63 in October, as expected, after surging 6 points to 65 in September. The latter was the strongest reading since October 2015 (and for this business cycle). The present single family index fell 2 points too, to 69 following the 6 point jump to 71 previously. The future index rose 1 point to 72 after the 5 point September rise to 71. The index of prospect buyer traffic slipped 1 point to 46 from 47 (revised down from 48).

Germany’s Schaeuble wants ESM to take over as fiscal watch-dog. That the Stability and Growth Pact is not worth much more than the paper it is written on is pretty evident considering that even the ECB is calling on Germany to use “its fiscal room” to boost growth, even though Germany, may be doing better than other countries, but is also facing a debt burden that is far exceeding the 60% originally laid down in the Maastricht Treaty. The European Commission, which is officially charged with overseeing the implementation of the pact and with issuing fines if necessary, has been very lenient amid intense political pressure. Against that background, German Finance Minister Schaeuble is now proposing that the ESM should take over from the politically dominated Commission to take over as fiscal watchdog. Applying the Pact to the latter may help to make the Eurozone more stable, but seems unlikely to meet with much support even though former ECB chief economist Issing warned that current levels of moral hazard are likely to lead to the failure of the single currency.

Main Macro Events Today

BOC Policy Report and Rate Statement – No change to the current 0.50% rate setting is expected at the announcement. A cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation is expected which will be consistent with no change in rates for an extended period. The growth and inflation outlook should be trimmed, but recent firm economic data suggest that any reductions from the BoC will be modest. September’s announcement contained the surprise shift that risks to the inflation profile have “tilted somewhat to the downside since July.” August’s CPI confirmed this view.

UK Earnings and Employment data – Expectations are for average earnings to remain unchanged at 2.3%, claimant count to rise by 3,400 for last month and Unemployment rate also to remain unchanged at 4.9%.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 10.19.2016

October 19, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        98.10—-97.50 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 20 pips, Target at the Buttom
EUR/USD     1.1045—-1.0955 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GBP/USD     1.2350—-1.2260 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CHF     0.9920—-0.9850    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
USD/JPY      104.40—-103.40 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Buttom
AUD/USD     0.7730—-0.7630    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3190—-1.3070    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
GOLD 1271.00—1256.00    Buy at the Buttom,    Stop Loss 7 $,       Target at the Top
Silver   17.85—17.45 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.20 $,       Target at the Top
Oil       51.30—50.20    Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.50 $,     Target at the Top

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Sterling Picks Up – EURGBP rolls over

October 18, 2016 Forex Analysis

EURGBP, Daily

Sterling has perked up today following a stop-loss driven short squeeze in Asia ahead of UK inflation data today, the actual headline figured showed September cpi data at 1.0% beating expectations of 0.9%. Cable immediately rallied to 1.2273 (also its Asian session high) on expectation that higher inflation would make the possibility of an interest rate cut next month less likely, before settling back to 1.2245.

While the pound remains comfortably above the flash-crash lows of October 6, it is still lower by an average of about 18% against the G3 currencies since the Brexit vote. Downside momentum may abate as speculative accounts are running a record net short position in the pound (as interpolated by CFTC futures data), while the currency’s losses are already near historical extremes for sterling bear markets. But Brexit-related uncertainties remain a concern. The Autumn report from the independent economic forecast group ITEM, released yesterday, found that “many firms have put investment and recruitment on hold,” and while detailing various post-EU opportunities, forecast that a “WTO-based Brexit” would likely “take about 4% off Britain’s GDP by 2030. The UK Treasury’s recently leaked estimates regarding the coast of leaving the EU and switching to WTO rules was a loss of GDP of between 5.4% and 9.5% after 15 years.

Along with a possible SHORT position in EURJPY yesterday the EURGBP looks to be rolling over too in the short term down to the 0.8900 area (Target 1) from an entry at 0.9016. The tweezer top last week has been followed by some consolidation around the 0.9000-9050 level. MACD, RSI and the Parabolic SAR suggest a further move lower. The 10 DMA is providing support around 0.8960 with the 20 DMA further down at 0.8810 and Target 2.

Thursday this week remains key for the EURO this week. With growth indicators suggesting ongoing momentum and inflation starting to move higher, the ECB clearly is reluctant to add even more stimulus to an already very expansionary policy. Still, in order to keep the current program on track and to allow for a follow up program even at reduced levels, the ECB has to address the issue of dwindling supply. After the central bank tasked committees with examining tweaks to the program Reuters sources suggest that first proposals may already be discussed at this week’s meeting, but it seems more likely that any changes will be announced in December, when the decision about QE, which currently is set to end in March next year, will also be on the agenda. So, the most likely scenario is an unchanged policy stance and a pretty uneventful press conference with the ECB repeating its calls on politicians to step up structural reforms in order to boost the Eurozone’s growth potential and help to bring up inflation.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Macro Events & News for 10.18.2016

October 18, 2016 Forex Analysis

FOREX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly higher, with Hong Kong outperforming as developers and casinos rebound. Japanese markets are slightly higher after fluctuating through the session as investors mull the U.S. rate outlook and await corporate earnings reports. A disappointing Empire State Index in the U.S. and a weaker Yen helped to underpin Japanese markets, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher. Oil prices are up on the day and the front end WTI future is holding above USD 50 per barrel. The recent uptick in oil prices coupled with a weak Pound are fuelling inflation concerns in the U.K. in particular and contributed to the underperformance of Gilt futures and the concomitant rise in yields that went hand in hand with a steepening of the yield curve. In this context investors will keep a close eye on today’s releases of Sep U.K. inflation data, although pressure especially on retailers not to pass on the rise in import prices at least for now is high. In the Eurozone all eyes are on the ECB’s council meeting on Thursday and today’s latest lending survey is unlikely to shed any light on the immediate outlook.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes: Holding rates steady “at this meeting” consistent with inflation, growth targets, Reasonable prospect of sustaining economic growth, gradual rise in inflation, Considerable uncertainty remained about momentum in labour, housing markets, An appreciating AUD could complicate economic rebalancing. Q3 GDP growth looked to have run at similar pace to Q2, Rising commodity prices likely lifted terms of trade in Q3. Growth in China seemed to have stabilised, but debt a source of concern. AUDUSD rallied to 0.7680 following release of the minutes.

US Data Reports: Revealed some modestly disappointing factory figures, though there is an emerging uptrend for the sector as the inventory and petro-headwind diminishes. For the October Empire State report, we saw a headline drop to a 5-month low of -6.8 from -2.0 in September and -4.2 in August, though this still allowed a slight rise in the ISM-adjusted measure after an outsized September hit, to 46.3 from an 8-month low of 45.1. A 0.1% September industrial production rise matched estimates, though it followed downward revisions that left a slightly bigger August unwind of a slightly smaller June-July spike. Yet, industrial production grew at a 1.8% pace in Q3, and expectations are for a 0.5% rise in Q4 that leaves the first two-quarter rise since 2014.

Fedspeak: VC Fischer – Low rates could threaten financial stability and leave the US economy more vulnerable to adverse shocks. Low rates partly compromise the FOMC’s ability to fight recessions. But he said there is currently no evidence now of heightened instability risks. On the various causes of lower interest rates, he noted lower productivity growth (which implies higher savings and reduced investment), demographic changes weighing on growth, weak investment, and developments. Interestingly, he didn’t include monetary policy per se and said it is “not that simple” for the Fed to influence short and long term rates (hum). Though he did not address the policy stance specifically, the tone of his comments suggest he’d be supportive of a rate hike this year and rather contrary to Mrs. Yellens more dovish tones on Friday.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Sept. Inflation – CPI to tick up to a new cycle high of 0.9% from 0.6% in August. Core CPI is also seen rising to a new cycle peak, of 1.4% y/y, from 1.3%. Such a rise in inflation will be consistent with BoE projections. Higher oil prices and ongoing Sterling weakness will push up inflation and the question is for how much and how long. In the meantime rising inflation is underpinning a pick up in yields and a steepening of the yield curve, as the BoE signals that it is willing to accommodate a higher inflation trajectory.

US Sept. CPI – The September headline CPI is expected to grow 0.3%, while the core index rises 0.2%. YoY expected at 1.5%. Forecast risk: upward, as oil prices rebounded slightly in September. Market risk: downward, as inflation undershoots may affect the timing of additional rate hikes.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Free Forex Trading Signals For 10.18.2016

October 18, 2016 Forex Analysis

#UDSX        98.30—-97.60 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 20 pips, Target at the Top
EUR/USD     1.1035—-1.0945 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 35 pips, Target at the Buttom
GBP/USD     1.2240—-1.2110 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
USD/CHF     0.9920—-0.9850 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
USD/JPY      104.60—-103.40 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Top
AUD/USD     0.7660—-0.7590 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 30 pips, Target at the Top
USD/CAD     1.3170—-1.3080 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 40 pips, Target at the Buttom
GOLD 1261.00—1247.00 Sell at the Top,    Stop Loss 5 $, Target at the Buttom
Silver   17.60—17.30 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.15 $, Target at the Top
Oil   51.00—49.90 Buy at the Buttom, Stop Loss 0.50 $, Target at the Top

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

USDCAD Soars on Poor Canadian Data

September 23, 2016 Forex Analysis

USDCAD, Daily

Two key Canadian data points both miss expectations data. Canada retail sales slipped 0.1% in July, contrary to expectations (median +0.2%) and following the 0.1% dip in June. The ex-autos sales aggregate dipped 0.1% in July, also not as expected (median +0.4%) after the revised 0.6% tumble in June (was -0.8%). Excluding gasoline prices, retail sales values grew 0.2% in July. Moreover, falling prices in general were a key driver during July for total sales values, as total sales volumes expanded 0.3% m/m in July. The improvement in actual sales (as opposed to the dollar value of those sales) is consistent with a projection for a 0.2% m/m gain in July GDP after the 0.6% surge in June. The separate real Q3 GDP measure is on track for a 3.2% rebound following the 1.6% drop in Q2.

Also Canadian CPI slowed to a 1.1% y/y rate in August, which was much slower than anticipated (median +1.4%) after expanding at a 1.3% clip in July. Total CPI fell 0.2% m/m in August (median +0.1%) following the matching 0.2% drop in July. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure slowed to a 1.8% y/y pace in August (median +2.1%) from the 2.1% y/y growth rate in July. The core CPI was flat in August, matching the flat reading in July.

USDCAD spiked up to 1.3140 highs from 1.3035 following the cooler Canada CPI and softer retail sales outcome. Firmed oil prices weighed on the pairing, though the weaker data more than unwound those CAD gains.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

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