Macro Events & News for 04.15.2016

Forex Analysis
2016-04-15_0921

FX News Today

China’s economic growth was slowest in seven years in the first quarter. At the same time though indicators from consumer, investment and factory sectors show encouraging signs that the slowdown in Chinese economy may soon be over. Official government data on Friday showed GDP grew 6.7 percent in the Q1 2016 from the previous year, (in line with analyst forecasts). This was slight drop from 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Reuters reports that while this was the weakest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2009, when growth tumbled to 6.2 percent, other activity data reinforced previous signs that the economy may be finding traction with better-than-expected growth seen in retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment.

PBoC Deputy Governor said the economy is “pretty robust” in late-breaking remarks that China GDP could grow by 6.5-7.0% this year given electricity consumption figures and other data. The biggest challenge was to continue to carry out reforms, he said, while he felt the message had been received that the yuan is pegged against a basket of currencies, of which the dollar still has a relatively large weight. He concurred that market forces were the primary driver of FX moves and the bank doesn’t want to see a severe overshoot from current near-equillibrium levels. He also endorsed the independence of China monetary policy. USD-JPY got a little bid with the remarks as USDCNY cruised aback over 6.48%.

US Fed Lockhart: June should remain an option for a rate hike, he told reporters. But he added that Brexit is a consideration for policymakers, though how it “will be weighed, or should it be weighed is an open question.” It could affect exchange rates and raise long-term questions on the euro area. Yet, he doesn’t think it should “stop the music” for the FOMC, however.

BoE Holds Steady Amid Brexit Risk: The BoE once again voted unanimously to keep rates on hold yesterday, as widely expected. The uncertainty ahead of the Brexit referendum on June 23 is starting to have an impact on investment and the central bank like many investors seems to be in wait and see mode, even if the implicit tightening bias was left in place. The MPC highlighted that in this climate even the interpretation of economic indicators will be more difficult and that means no major decisions either way are likely to be made ahead of the referendum.

Main Macro Events Today

  • US Industrial Production: The US Industrial production is expected to fall 0.4% in March, after falling 0.5% in February. Forecast risk: downward, as March mining data remained depressed. Market risk: upward, as a run of weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.
  • US Capacity Utilization: The US Capacity Utilization numbers are out today and are expected to come in slightly lower than in March. The consensus expectation is 75.4% in March after 76.7% level in February. This follows a descending trend in the capacity utilization in 2015 after the index peaked at 80% in December 2014.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Coffee makes a successful retest of support

Forex Analysis
Chart_16-04-14_17-04-48
Coffee, Weekly

It’s been a year since my last analysis Coffee futures market. At the time Coffee was trading at $142.10 and I gave three targets of which lowest was at $115. Coffee hit all those targets and turned higher at $111.05, in the scheme of things very close to my $115 target level. The theme in my 2015 coffee analyses was shorting the market but now a year later it’s time to start looking at the long side as both technical and fundamental reasons suggest this market is tightening over the coming months.

In March coffee futures rallied over 16% on the dry weather forecasts that prompted Brazil the second biggest producer to cut its forecast for the next harvest to levels well below consensus estimates. There’s actually been a drought in the top Brazilian coffee production region, Espirito Santo. This has led to banks raising their target prices for the coffee futures, adding to the bullish sentiment in coffee but at the same time the fact remains that the coffee rallies are vulnerable to any news on new large crops.

Technically the rally in prices seen in March was significant. It was the first time since October 2014 that the price of coffee was able to rally above the upper weekly Bollinger Bands. This was a clear breakout from the trading range and triangle formation that have kept the prices from advancing since November 2015 and suggests that the bottoming process is now nearing the end. Price declined back to the 30 period moving average and $121 support level created by weekly candle highs in February. This week’s price action has stayed above the support.

 KC daily

Coffee, Daily

In the daily chart we can see how the price of coffee dropped down to $121.13 support that coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. From this level price has bounced again today which means that we have a successful retest in place. The 38.2% Fibonacci level at $126.62 is a minor resistance while the sideways move above $131.64 could prove to be a tougher level to penetrate. If today’s close is above $122.50 we have a bullish pin bar in the daily chart, which could be seen as a confirmation of the bullish view on the price of coffee.

Conclusion

As we have the dry weather causing draught in the important coffee producing regions in Brazil the prices are likely to be supported on the fundamental basis over the coming months. At the same time the technical picture supports long trade ideas on coffee. If market manages to create a bullish pin bar today, we have a potential lift-off that could take the prices to at least $126.60 resistance but possibly further to $131.60 resistance near the recent high. These are short term targets while in the longer term picture (over several weeks) price could move to August 2015 highs and a likely significant resistance at $140 dollars.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

GBPAUD Continues Lower

Forex Analysis
2016-04-14_1548

GBPAUD, Weekly

This pair are looking to continue their downward movement as the AUD recovers (following good jobs data today) and the pressure continues on the GBP due to persistent Brexit fears and dovish tones from the BOE. As the AUD strengthens and the GBP weakens in the short term we are looking for SHORT trades on any retracement from current levels.

The “real possibility” of Brexit, as the IMF termed it in this week’s release of its semi-annual world outlook, adds to the pressure on sterling. This is also why it failed to sustain gains in the wake of Tuesday’s UK inflation data, which showed March headline CPI rising more than expected to a cycle high of 0.5% y/y. The IMF also revised UK growth down to 1.9% for this year, down from 2.2%, and this assumes the UK remaining in the EU. As for Brexit risk, the latest FT poll tracker shows a narrow 1 percentage point lead for the Remain camp, with 43% compared to the 42% support for the Leave camp, narrowing over the last couple of weeks from respective levels of 45% and 40%.

I’m therefore looking for sell signals inside my 1.8526 – 1.8610 sell area (50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels) with Target 1 (T1) at 1.8010- 1.8000 (Weekly low, 200 DMA and round psychological number) and Target 2 (T2) at 1.7845 (Next support level).

Only trade based on my analysis and trade ideas if you agree with the analysis and if you are (after substantial testing) confident that you can assume the risk. Should you need further training on trading and risk management please attend any of our free webinars.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 04.14.2016

Forex Analysis
2016-04-14_0940
 FX News Today

ECB’s Constancio: Helicopter money would not make a big difference, adding that “its something that of course we are very much limited by the treaty to embark upon”. At the same time he stressed that the ECB’s Negative-Rate Policy has its limits, as “there is always the possibility of hitting the limit where the preference for cash withdrawals would set in”. He added that “the instruments should not push banks to pass on their additional direct costs by turning deposit rates negative or increasing lending rates to increase margins. Both developments would be problematic for our monetary policy goals”. For now Constancio argues that the net effect of the negative deposit rate is “positive for the euro area as a whole”, while stressing that it takes time for the positive effects to materialise fully.

Australian unemployment fell to a cycle low of 5.7% in March, which offset a Moody’s warning to the Australian government that it needs to hike taxes at its budget in May. As a result Australian dollar is now up against all the major peers between 0.3 to 0.9% expect the USD that has gained 0.5% against the AUD.

As expected, the BoC left rates steady at 0.50%. The growth outlook was boosted a bit too GoC yields pulled back to session lows in tandem with the drop in the Treasury 10-year rate following the stellar Treasury auction. The market had already reflected its approval of what Governor Poloz had to say in his press conference, where he maintained two way risk in terms of the policy rate (BoC is not “sidelined”). He also talked-up the negative shocks seen since January, which were more than offset in the projection by impending fiscal stimulus.

Fed’s Beige Book said activity expanded modestly in most Districts, though the pace of growth varied. The report, prepared by the Chicago Fed, did note though, that wages increased in 11 of the 12 Districts (excluding Atlanta), and there were signs of a pickup compared to the last survey period. The strongest wage pressures continued to be seen for occupations where there were labor shortages. Labor market conditions continued to strengthen, with only Cleveland reporting a decline. Consumer spending mostly increased and retailers remained generally optimistic about the growth outlook over the rest of 2016. Manufacturing mostly increased and nonfinancial services picked up too. Construction and real estate generally expanded too. While the report was mostly optimistic, nearly all the adjectives were moderate or modest, suggesting the hit to the economy from the oil recession is dissipating.

Main Macro Events Today
  • Euro Area CPI:  The consumer price index for March is expected to come in unchanged from the -0.1% in February. The March HICP (Harmonised index of consumer prices) was confirmed at -0.1% at the end of March and therefore the CPI reading probably follows in its footsteps. The difference between Italian and German inflation numbers (Italian HICP fell further to negative territory) likely makes the ECB’s job harder.
  • BoE Vote and Minutes: The BoE is widely expected to maintain an unchanged policy stance, by a unanimous vote. The start of rate normalisation is still a long way off and the uncertainty over the outcome of the Brexit referendum in July is the main focus for markets as polls are pointing to a close outcome at the Jun-23 referendum. We expect the vote will swing to the “remain” side given the fear of near- to medium-term economic disruption. However, there are signs that the uncertainty about what will happen in the event of leaving the EU has been casting a negative impact on economic activity. A survey published by Deloitte last Monday found that a “fog of uncertainty has descended on the corporate sector” as a consequence of uncertainty about EU membership.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

US Retail & PPI figures weaker than expected

Forex Analysis
US Retail & PPI figures weaker than expected

USDJPY, 60min   

US retail sales fell 0.3% in March with the ex-auto component up 0.2%. But the 0.1% dip in the February headline and ex-auto sales were each revised up to unchanged, which offsets some of the headline disappointment. Sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials was unchanged from a 0.4% gain previously (revised from 0.1%). Pacing the headline weakness was a 2.1% drop in car sales, with clothing off 0.9%, while eating and drinking establishments fell 0.8%. Building materials climbed 1.4%, with healthcare up 1.0%, along with a 0.9% rebound in gas station sales.

US March PPI dipped 0.1% with the core rate off 0.1% too, both underperforming expectations. There were no revisions to February with a 0.2% headline decline, and a flat core reading. On an annual basis, final demand PPI slowed to a -0.1% y/y clip versus unchanged previously, with the core rate dipping to 1.0% y/y from 1.2% y/y.

The USD fell broadly after the weaker than expected retail sales, and the cooler PPI outcomes. EURUSD rallied to 1.1325 from just above 1.1300 as USDJPY fell under 109.10 from near 109.35.  Next upward resistance on the 60 min chart is the 200 MA at 109.56, with support around 109.00 – 108.90.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Is USDCAD a sell after a rally?

Forex Analysis
Is USDCAD a sell after a rally?

USDCAD, 240 min

USDCAD has been moving lower in recent days while the WTI crude has rallied. Now the pair is oversold and therefore vulnerable to contra trend moves. Stochastics is well below the oversold threshold in the daily chart and USDCAD has moved below the lower Bollinger bands. Crude oil is looking a bit weak today and could incite a rally in the inversely correlated USDCAD. The intraday price action indicates that the markets are indeed trying to move USDCAD higher from the current levels. How far the market then should move before we could consider shorting it? I’m eying an area between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels that coincides with a line-on-close low (at 1.2896) from 31st of March. There is another potential low at 1.2853 but due to a support being fairly near to this level I prefer to take action near the 1.2896 low.

I’m therefore looking for sell signals inside my 1.2880 – 1.2910 sell area with Target 1 (T1) at 1.2780 -1.2809 and Target 2 (T2) at 1.2728-1.2750. Only trade based on my analysis and trade ideas if you agree with the analysis and if are (after substantial testing) confident that you can assume the risk. Should you need further training on trading and risk management please attend my free webinars. I’d love to help you become more confident in your analysis and trading.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURAUD reacting higher near the Bollinger bands

Forex Analysis
EURAUD reacting higher near the Bollinger bands

EURAUD, Daily

EURAUD dropped 1.32% yesterday and produced a nice trade (> 100 pips) for those that attended yesterday’s Live Analysis Webinar. Today the pair is trading near the daily Bollinger bands and looks like it could move higher from the current levels. This buy area was discussed yesterday in the webinar and now’s the time to consider taking the advantage of it. EURAUD is reacting higher at the time of writing and could retrace yesterday’s move. Stochastics in the daily timeframe are near oversold levels while all my oscillators (Stochastics, RSI and MFI) are deeply oversold in the four hour chart.

This morning we had a signal to go long in the buy area between 1.4716 and 1.4794 so those that attended yesterday’s Live Analysis Webinar knew when and how to get long.  Should the market provide another buy signal, we could still consider going long on this market. My Target 1 for this trade is in 1.4907 – 1.4930 bracket and Target 2 in 1.4980 – 1.5040 range. Only trade these ideas if you agree with the analysis and are (after substantial testing) confident that you can assume the risk.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 04.13.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, following on from gains on Wall Street yesterday amid a rebound in oil prices. The front end WTI Nymex future has moved off highs, but remains comfortably above USD 41 per barrel and with the USD strengthening Japanese markets were also supported by a weaker Yen. The EUR has fallen below 1.14 to the USD and U.S. and European stock futures are also higher, pointing to opening gains on European markets and ongoing pressure on core bond futures. Italian banks will remain in the spotlight, after yesterday’s disappointment over Italy’s bad bank plan led to a sell off in Italian bank stocks. The calendar has ECBspeak from Knot, Nowotny and Constancio and data includes final inflation readings from Spain and France

UK inflation data came in perkier than expected: Rising to a cycle high of 0.5% y/y in the March headline CPI rate, up from February’s 0.3% and above the median forecast for 0.4%. Core CPI jumped to 1.5% y/y from 1.2% previously. Airfares and clothing drove the index higher, offsetting weakness in food and petrol prices. The impact of sterling weakness is likely to have started having some impact. From March 2015 to March this year the GBP lost over 3% versus the dollar and against the euro (a better proxy of the trade-weighted value of sterling) over 9%. Cable traded as high as 1.4330 following the news, but USD strength overnight sees the pair at 1.4245 currently.

Fedspeak, Harker & Williams: Harker warned that it’s possible there will still be 3 hikes this year, depending on GDP numbers. He doesn’t see much slack in the labor market and doesn’t want to see the Fed running much above the 2% target inflation rate. Harker warns that if energy prices rebound more quickly, it is possible that the Fed will have to be more aggressive on rates. Later, Williams said that the he wasn’t that concerned about a hard landing for China, with the U.S. economy doing “quite well,” though the Fed must take into account what happens abroad. He also commented that the worst-kept secret is the Fed’s plan to raise rates, as the Fed is trying to telegraph the path of U.S. rates so the rest of the world can better prepare. Meanwhile, he’s not seeing big capital flight from emerging economies as the Fed talks about rate hikes.

Italy defends bank rescue plan: As investors mark their disappointment by selling off bank stocks, with even Intesa SanPaolo, Unicredit and Ubi Banca, closing down between 4 and 5% Tuesday. There concerns that the plan, which is based on a EUR 5 bln bad bank fund, is not ambitious enough to clear up Italy’s financial system and help mitigate losses from the large number of non performing loans in Italy’s banks. Bank of Italy’s Rossi said in an interview with La Repubblica that the new fund aims to resolve banking sector problems and Padoan told Sole that the ECB views the fund favourably.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  •   US Retail Sales  March retail sales are expected to show a flat headline (median 0.1%) with a 0.3% (median 0.4%) ex-autos increase when the data is released on Wednesday. Retail sales declined in both January and February with the January headline down 0.4% and February down 0.1%. We expect some downside risk to the release from depressed chain store sales and vehicle sales declines.
  • US (PPI) March PPI is out later today and should post a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%). This follows a -0.2% headline and unchanged core rate in February. Oil prices have begun to rebound and this showed up in today’s March trade price index where import prices managed to improve 0.2% after a long run of declines.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

EURGBP attractive near the regression channel low

Forex Analysis
Market Analysis — 12 April 2016
EURGBP attractive near the regression channel low

EURGBP, 240 min

EURGBP has been in an uptrend lately and is still breaking above recent pivotal highs. It has been attracting buyers after pull backs have taken the pair near S&R levels. Now that EURGBP has retraced from a new 22 month high it could be soon reviving buying interest from those that look to participate in this uptrend after a decent pullback. The pair is oversold in terms of Stochastics oscillator (7,3,3) while it tried to bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci level. I expect the uptrend to continue but think that the current level is a bit too risky to trade long and expect the pair first to make another leg lower. This would bring it to my buy area. The regression channel low and the area between the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels, together with the March high at 0.7946 should mean that quite a few market participants view this area as a potential area for long trades.

I am looking for long entry signals between 0.7938 and 0.7994 with Target 1 at 0.8080 – 0.8120 bracket and Target 2 at 0.8160 – 0.8180.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


“My mission is to help you to become a confident and successful trader”

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Macro Events & News for 04.12.2016

Forex Analysis
Macro Events & News

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of China are mostly higher, led by a rebound in Japan, where markets benefited from a weaker Yen and the BoJ’s decision to tweak the calculation for negative rates, which underpinned bank stocks amid hopes that the negative rate portion of bank reserves will be lower than feared. Oil prices are off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 40 per barrel. US stock futures are also moving higher, but UK futures are down, with the U.K. continuing to underperforming amid Brexit fears. Released overnight. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected and unexpectedly contracted, which will add to pressure on the FTSE 100 ahead of the release of March inflation data today.

Tensions between ECB and Germany intensify: Finance Minister Schaeuble’s unusually clear comments on ECB policy saying that “there is a growing understanding that excessive liquidity has become more a cause than a solution to the problem” a reflection of a growing agreement among German policy makers that it is time to publicly distance themselves from Draghi’s negative interest rates policy. With the right wing AFD, which originally was founded on an anti-EMU platform gaining more and more support and German savers enraged by dwindling returns on private retirement funds, they were lured into by a public campaign trying to reduce pressure on the PAYG pension system, Merkel is under pressure to at least be seen as trying to reign in Draghi’s spending spree. Not that Germany questions the ECB’s independence, rather as with the OMT program, there are increasing doubts that the ECB is acting within its mandate. Even if a court dispute between German and the ECB is highly unlikely with the ECB heavily relying on investor trust in Germany as the stability anchor of the Eurozone, an open conflict between the central bank and the Eurozone’s largest economy could easily rekindle the debt crisis once again.

Kaplan Speech: He remains skeptical about negative rates, which can hurt banking, money and commercial paper markets, and he hopes the U.S. will avoid that trap. He said the “living will” process necessary if onerous and challenging to big banks. He expects global energy supply to exceed demand through the end of this year, leading to more volatility in the oil-gas industry, including bankruptcies and more restructuring until H1 2017. (He is the president of the Dallas Fed and should know better than most). However, he does expect the headwinds from the strong dollar to fade. Kaplan does not expect planned rate hikes to shift the Treasury yield curve significantly, nor lead to Fed portfolio losses.

The Debate on NIRP heats up: The ongoing controversy over Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) continued in several articles circulating, with IMF’s Largarde defending the utility of negative rates in a blog post that suggested that lending and risk taking will increase. But Bill Gross of Janus said in a Barron’s article that savers would move into cash and could in fact hoard savings to compensate for the lack of returns from pension and insurance funds, and that could result in their ultimate demise. Larry Fink of Blackrock agreed in the FT that in the case of negative rates savers will divert funds into more savings, rather than less. The WSJ also pointed out the underperformance of banks in this environment heading into peak earnings season for banks.

 

Main Macro Events Today

  • UK Consumer Price Index  Headline CPI is expected to tick higher, to +0.4% (median same) from 0.3% in the month previous. The core CPI reading is also seen nudging up, to +1.4% y/y from 1.3%. PPI is expected.
  • US Import and Export Prices March trade price data should show import prices up 1.6% with export prices down 0.2%. This follows February figures which had import prices down 0.3% and export prices down 0.4%. WTI prices improved in March which should help prop up import prices after a steady string of declines. Despite the increase, oil prices still remain at depressed levels so they could pose some continued downside risk.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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About Janne Muta, HotForex’s Chief Market Analyst

jmutaJanne Muta is a seasoned industry professional with over 16 years experience in the global markets. Originally from Finland, Janne has worked for institutions in both Helsinki and London as an institutional fund manager, global market analyst and FX educator.

Traders and fund managers from around the world have benefited greatly from Janne’s technical analysis methods. The indicators and price action based trading models he has developed, have, after rigorous testing, proven to be invaluable in identifying high probability trades.


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