FX News Today

Sterling has taken a beating, losing 2% to the dollar, while the currency’s six-month implied volatility shot to 12%, the highest since Nov 2011. It’s all about Brexit, with the debate now very much in full swing following the weekend announcement that the in-out referendum will be held on Jun-23, which in turn followed PM Cameron’s obtainment from Brussels of revised terms of EU membership. The big kicker was London mayor Boris Johnson, who yesterday detonated a bombshell of headlines by announcing that he will be backing the ‘out’ campaign.

Moody’s warned UK about Brexit “economic costs”, which it says will be greater than the “economic benefits, “and, in the event, said it would consider assigning a negative outlook on its Aa1 rating of UK sovereign debt unless the country “managed to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership.” Moody’s warned of a “prolonged period of uncertainty.” Cable’s Jan-22 low at 1.4202 looks more than likely to be breached, which would put sterling at the lowest levels since March 2009.

UK CBI industrial trends unexpectedly slumped in February to a -17 reading in the headline total orders reading, down from -15 in the month prior and off the median forecast for an improvement to -12. Among the components, export orders lifted to -19 from -22, but output expectations fell to +11 from +14 and selling prices dipped to -3 from -1. Sterling dipped to fresh lows in the wake of the data, though selling pressure is more to do with prevailing Brexit worries.

US Markit PMI fell to 51.0 in the flash February manufacturing PMI from 52.4 in January. It’s the lowest reading since October 2012 and was at 55.1 a year ago. The new order index slid to 51.7 from 53.6, and the order backlog reading dropped to its lowest since September 2009. The report is another reflection of the erosion in manufacturing. Indeed, Markit reported the slowdown was “overwhelmingly linked” to the softer underlying demand patterns, weaker business sentiment, alongside uncertainty regarding the general economic outlook. Weather was cited by only a small minority of participants.

US Chicago National Activity index rebounded to 0.28 in January from a revised -0.34 in December (was -0.22) and -0.39 in November (was -0.36). This breaks a string of 5 negative prints, and is the highest since July. Today’s data brought the 3-month moving average up to -0.15 from -0.30 (revised from -0.24) and -0.20 in November (revised from -0.19). This is a 3rd tier report that won’t really impact the markets.

Main Macro Events Today

• German GDP: second release is expected to confirm the Q4 output at 0.3% (Q/Q) and 1.3% (Y/Y).

• German IFO: sentiment index is expected to come in at 106.7, slightly below the 107.3 in January. January’s reading was a disappointment and was the weakest number since February last year. December was revise down to 108.6 from 108.7. Global concerns about the outlook for the world economy and falling oil prices clearly have hit German confidence.

• US Existing Home Sales: January existing home sales are out Tuesday and should reveal a 0.7% headline increase to 5.500 mln (median 5.355 mln) clip for the month from 5.460 mln in December and 4.760 mln in November. The big November-December swing was driven by the implementation of new “know before you sign” regulation that pushed some November closings into December. There is some downside risk to the January headline as that effect unwinds.

• US Consumer Confidence: February consumer confidence is out Tuesday and should reveal an increase to 98.5 (median 97.5) from 98.1 in January. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for February had the headline falling to 90.7 from 92.0 in January but the IBD/TIPP Poll for the month improved to 47.8 from 47.3 and the Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort survey is poised to average a slightly higher 44.4 from 44.3 in January.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

The yen has held firm amid a moderate risk-off theme in Asia, where stock markets traded mostly lower after Wall Street’s best-in-eight-weeks three-day rally came to an end. USDJPY dipped to a four-day low at 112.71, while the equity market correlative AUDJPY cross fell 1.9%. Both USDJPY and AUDJPY still remain comfortably above trend lows, while most of the main Asian equity indexes are still about 3% higher on the week despite today’s declines. Oil prices are down about 1% but remain a good 20% or so above trend lows. Japanese data today were discouraging, with the all Industry activity index falling 0.9% m/m in December, below the -0.3% median forecast, while department store sales tumbled 1.9% y/y in January.

BoE MPC’s Weale is concerned about market expectations regarding when the central bank will hike interest rates. He remarked in an interview with the Irish Times that “I would be surprised if people had to wait as long as markets are currently implying,” although he added that “markets may well turn out to be right.” BoE deputy governor Cunliffe also described yesterday this as unwarranted, which caused sterling to rally, although the latest survey from Reuters found a consensus among market economists expecting the a tightening by around the end of this year. Weale argued that the disinflationary effects of last sterling strength “is not an effect that is going to last forever,” and that “if we look at core measures of inflation, those are closer to the target but still below the target.” He said that wage pressure as a key issue. While prospects of BoE tightening remain in the distance, Cunliffe and Weale’s interjections are clearly aimed at balancing the market narrative.

SF Fed’s Williams has not really changed his outlook on the US or the global economy, despite the recent fluctuations, he said, adding that he will adjust his views on conditions and the policy path with more data. The “daily dives” in equity markets are not accurate reflections of the economy and shouldn’t be viewed as “the four horsemen of the apocalypse.” Growth is still estimated in the 2.25% area for the year and the unemployment rate should dip further and hit 4.5% by later in the year. He is not happy about the inflation rate but expects it to return to 2% over the next 2 years. He is monitoring potential risks and “closely watching” developments abroad. This isn’t anything new from Williams, and he is not a voter this year.

Yesterday’s US reports were encouraging on net, though with diverging signals from a tightening in initial claims but with big February Philly Fed component declines and a 0.2% January leading indicators drop. For claims, we saw a 7k decline to just 262k in the BLS survey week to leave a 23k two-week drop that reversed elevated holiday levels and left upside risk for our 190k February payroll estimate. For Philly Fed, the slight headline rise to -3.5 accompanied a sharp ISM-adjusted drop to a 45.5 three-year low thanks to declines in every component.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Consumer Price Index: the January headline CPI is expected to decline 0.1%, while the core index rises 0.1%. Forecast risk: downward, as further weakness in gasoline prices could weigh. Market risk: downward, as inflation undershoots may affect the timing of additional rate hikes.

• Canada Retail Sales: are expected to fall 1.0% in December after the 1.7% surge in November. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen declining 0.7% m/m in December after the 1.1% bounce higher in November. An as expected drop in total retail sales that is accompanied by a similar sized pull-back in the “real” (price adjusted) sales basis would partly counter the firm manufacturing and wholesale shipment gains seen in December. We expect an 0.2% gain in December GPD.
• Canada CPI: We expect the CPI, due today, to expand at a 1.7% y/y pace in January, accelerating slightly from the 1.6% growth rate in December. CPI is seen falling 0.1% month comparable basis in January after the 0.5% plunge in December. Gas prices fell 7.0% in January compared to December, which is expected to weigh on month comparable CPI.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

China’s CPI improved to a 1.8% y/y growth rate in January, slightly slower than expected following the 1.6% y/y rate of increase in December. CPI is gradually accelerating, with January’s growth rate the fastest since August of 2015’s 2.0%. PPI improved to a -5.3% y/y rate of contraction, nearly as expected following the 5.9% y/y rate of decline in December. The climb in annual CPI growth (albeit to still modest rates) and reduction in the pace of PPI decline suggests there could be some stabilization in China’s economy, although policy makers have a long way to go to tame overcapacity.

Australia’s unemployment rate climbed higher in January as full-time employment disappointed and dropped most for three years. This is seen signaling diminishing stimulus from record-low interest rates and a weaker currency. Jobless rate rose to 6% from 5.8% while markets expected the rate to be 5.8%. Employment fell 7,900 from December while consensus forecast was a 13,000 gain.

FOMC minutes: “many” were concerned over increased downside risks, especially amid uncertainties over economic conditions abroad, financial market stability, and inflation. That uncertainty was a large part of the decision not to assess the balance of risks. Further tightening of financial conditions could amplify the downside risks, while recent developments suggested risks were no longer balanced. The minutes noted the encouraging signs in the labor market, but data on spending and production were disappointing. Additionally, oil and commodity price declines and the firmer dollar were seen keeping inflation low over the near term. And there was a wide range of outlooks for the medium term, with recent developments having “many” now seeing a more uncertain outlook on prices, with risks pointed to the downside. The slowdown in China was seen impacting emerging markets, and together could lead to more of a drag on the US There weren’t any major surprises in the minutes given what had occurred prior to the January 26, 27 meeting, and the subsequent policy decision/statement.

Saudi Arabia’s credit rating was cut to A- from A+ by S&P amid the rout in oil, with the outlook revised to “stable” from “negative.” This is the second cut in 6 months as the rating was trimmed to A+ from AA- in late October. The ratings agency said “The decline in oil prices will have a marked and lasting impact on Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and economic indicators given its high dependence on oil.” Oil was trading near $50 at the time of the October review.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: are due today and contain an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It’s followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance. The accounts offer a fair and balanced reflection of policy deliberations.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of February 13th should reveal an increase in the headline to 274k (median 275k) from 269k last week and 285k in the week before that. Claims data is typically volatile through the holiday season but as we begin to move past that we expect to see the February average improve to 273k from 284k in January and 277k in December.

• US Philadelphia Fed Index: February Philly Fed is out today and should reveal a headline increase to -3.0 (median -2.8) from -3.5 in January. The already released Empire Stateindex for February had the headline at a still negative -16.6 from -19.4 in January but the ISM-adjusted measure managed a stronger rebound with a rise to 47.1 from 43.4. Despite the improvements we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to remain at 49 in February, steady from January and matching the three year low for this measure.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

ECB’s Nowotny fretting over market expectations. The Austrian central bank head said central banks must watch markets but not be guided by markets and told Swiss financial website Cash that he is concerned market expectations ahead of the March 10 meeting could become as excessive as in December, when expectations had “lost touch with reality”. Nowotny added that the turbulence in global markets is mainly driven by emerging market developments, an sovereign funds aiming to ensure liquidity. He admitted that market turmoil constitutes “a massive destruction of value, which is very negative for overall sentiment”. However, Nowotny stressed that monetary policy can only improve conditions for growth and was very successful in preventing deflation and keeping credit markets intact, but that actual investments have to be made by investors.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren said the Fed would be “in no rush at all” to hike rates if US inflation does not rise and would cut rates if missing 2% growth, unemployment rising and significant weakening in U.S. labor markets was seen. That’s about par for the course from the regional Fed president. Fed’s Kashkari said that staff will continue to analyze NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) as a potential policy tool, while noting that global economic and financial developments will be important inputs at the March FOMC. That said, the Fed expects a gradual increase in interest rates to be the base case. The Fed still seems quick to deny NIRP, while mulling its options for the timing of a second hike.

A third of energy companies could go bankrupt according to a report released by Deloitte, as credit risk zooms to a record high as low commodity prices cut access to cash and debt. “The roughly 175 companies at risk of bankruptcy have more than $150 billion in debt, with the slipping value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales further hindering their ability to generate cash. These companies have kicked the can down the road as long as they can and now they’re in danger of kicking the bucket, said William Snyder, head of corporate restructuring at Deloitte, in an interview. ‘It’s all about liquidity,’” noted a Reuters report.

 Main Macro Events Today

• FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for clues on Fed’s thinking last month. However, the report will be a little out of date following Yellen’s testimony last week, and given the volatility in the markets since the policy meeting. Indeed, recent events have taken a March rate hike off the table, and have pretty much pushed out the next tightening into later in the year. Nevertheless there were a couple of interesting changes in the policy statement which will make for a worthwhile read, and especially the discussions on growth, inflation, and the importance of international developments. First the Fed downgraded its growth outlook somewhat, so we’ll look to specifics on the extent of policymakers’ worries over growth. Additionally, the FOMC revealed diminished confidence that inflation would be picking up toward the 2% target over the medium term, and it will be interesting to see how widespread that angst was. Also, the Fed removed its “balance of risk” stance as it wanted to monitor global economic and financial developments for guidance.

• US Industrial Production: January industrial production is out today and should reveal a flat (median 0.3%) headline following the 0.4% decline in December and the big 0.9% drop in November. Despite some rebound in manufacturing employment, hours worked declined 0.2% in January and mining sector data continued to face headwinds from the drop in oil prices. Capacity utilization should tick down to 76.4% (median 76.6%) from 76.5% in December.

• US Produces Price Index: January PPI data is out Wednesday and is expected to reveal a 0.1% (median -0.2%) decline for the headline with the core index up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This comes on the heels of respective December figures of -0.2% for the headline and 0.2% for the core. Oil prices declined further through January which should continue to weigh on price measures.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

FX News Today

Stock markets continued to move higher in Asia, but with gains moderating after yesterday’s rally. The Nikkei is up 0.2% and the Hang Seng 1.23% on the day. US and UK stock futures are also higher. Risk appetite is reviving and Draghi’s remarks yesterday that the ECB is “ready to do its part” to boost the Eurozone are helping. Elsewhere RBA minutes left the door open to further easing. Oil prices are moving higher and the front end Nymex future is trading above USD 30 per barrel. The calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to fall into negative territory at -0.5%, down from 10.2% in January. The UK has inflation numbers, which are likely to remain benign. In Germany the ECB’s OMT program is once again under the scrutiny of Germany’s top court, who has to deliver its final verdict, after the European top court effectively backed the program.

The RBA Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent. In considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent domestic data had, on balance, been positive and judged that there were reasonable prospects for growth to increase gradually over the forecast period while maintaining inflation close to target. Employment growth over 2015 had been stronger than earlier expected and the starting point for the forecast for the unemployment rate was around ½ percentage point lower. Inflation continued to be relatively low, with underlying measures of inflation at about 2 per cent over 2015. Growth in labour costs also remained quite subdued. Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting. Over the period ahead, new information would enable the Board to assess whether the recent improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether recent financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand.

ECB’s Deaghi said that the central bank “is ready to do its part” and will “review, and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March.” He said much will depend on the “size and persistence of the fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round effects on wages and prices.” He argued that in light of recent financial turmoil “we will analyse the state of transmission of our monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular banks.” Draghi gave away nothing new, leaving the door firmly open to more action but taking a cautious line ahead of tomorrow’s hearing of the OMT (outright monetary transactions) program before the German Constitutional Court (which could still throw a spanner in the works). He did, however, note “increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy” and “intensified” turbulence in financial markets.” Draghi has been speaking before a European Parliament Committee.

 Main Macro Events Today

• UK Inflation numbers are due today. The January Core consumer price index (YoY) is expected to come in at 1.3%, slightly below December figure of 1.4% while the headline inflation number (including food and energy) is expected to move up one tenth from 0.2%.

• German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today. We expect ZEW to fall into negative territory, thus highlighting that pessimists now outnumber optimists. We are looking for a sharp drop to -0.5% from 10.2 in January, a decline that will only add to mounting growth concerns.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.