Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the data calendar. June housing starts (Tuesday) are forecast rising 0.5% to a 1.170 mln pace, after dipping 0.3% to 1.164 mln in May. Risk is to the downside, though, after weak construction employment in the jobs report. The July NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (Monday) is expected to dip back to 59, after jumping 2 points to 60 in June.  June existing home sales (Thursday) are seen rising 0.4% to a 5.550 mln rate, which would be a fourth consecutive monthly gain. The May FHFA home price index (Thursday) is also expected to improve, and has risen every month since January 2012. The Philly Fed’s manufacturing index (Thursday) is projected inching up to 5.0 in July after bouncing 6.5 points to 4.7 in June, from -1.8 in May. The flash July Markit manufacturing index (Friday) is also on the docket. Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 16 will be important since it coincides with the BLS survey week. May Treasury capital flow (TIC report) numbers are also due (Monday).

The Republican National Convention kicks off Monday in Cleveland, Ohio. Over the weekend Donald Trump announced Mike Pence, governor of Indiana, as his running mate. Ironically, there are divisions between their views on the war in Iraq, trade, and gay rights, while their campaign styles are diametrically opposite too.

Canada:  The calendar features CPI and retail sales this week. June CPI is expected to expand 0.2% m/m in June following the 0.4% increase in May as higher gasoline prices provide another boost. We see a 0.1% m/m gain for May retail sales values following the 0.9% gain in April. Retail sales excluding the autos aggregate are expected to nudge 0.3% higher in values terms during May after the 1.3% bounce in April. Wholesale shipment values are seen falling 0.5% m/m in May after the 0.5% drop in April, with a larger decline seen in values terms during May. There is nothing from the BoC this week.

Europe: While attention will turn to the events in Turkey over the weekend, along with continuing thoughts on Nice and Brexit, the focus will shift to the first round of major survey indicators since the Brexit referendum and of course the ECB, which meets Thursday. Expectations are for the bank to remain on hold for now, following the BoE’s example. Draghi has in fact been surprisingly quiet since the Brexit referendum and the next important date on the calendar is the September set of updated forecasts and staff projections. They are likely to bring downward revision to growth projections and we expect the ECB to make some changes to its monetary policy then, although it is unlikely to be more than some tweaking.

The first round of major post-Brexit survey indicators are out this week:  German ZEW investor confidence and Eurozone PMI readings. The ZEW number especially (Tuesday) will be heavily impacted by the Brexit outcome. PMIs on Friday are also expected to feel the sting and we are looking for a decline in the manufacturing PMI to 52.2 from 52.8 and a drop in the services reading to 52.3 from 53.1. Preliminary consumer confidence reading (Wednesday) and The ECB also releases the latest bank lending survey on Tuesday, although, this will be backward looking.

UK: Anecdotal signs of economic slowing abound, from property market transactions, to advertised job vacancies, to delayed business investment decisions, although consumer spending seems to be holding up. This week brings, for the first time in the case of the UK, preliminary readings of July PMI data from Markit (Friday), which will give a post-Brexit vote snapshot. The Bloomberg survey’s median forecast is for a dive in the composite PMI reading to 48.5 from 52.4 in June, which would be the weakest reading since the 2008 financial crisis and would affirm the Brexit-caused slowdown. The final July PMI numbers will be released in the first week of August. Other data included June inflation data (Tuesday), labour data covering May and June (Wednesday) and official June retail sales figures (Thursday).

China: No data releases this week.

Japan: The main calendar entry after Monday’s Marine Day holiday comes on Thursday with the May all-industry index, expected to fall 1.0% m/m versus the prior 1.3% increase. Construction spending (Tuesday), the Reuters Tankan (Thursday), and the flash Markit PMI (Friday) are also due.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes to the July meeting (Tuesday). The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% earlier this month, as had been widely anticipated. The central bank unexpectedly cut rates in May to 1.75% from 2.00% following an unexpected drop (q/q) in Q1 inflation.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There’s a flurry of data in the U.S. economic calendar for the second week of July (mostly on Friday) after the markets readily absorbed the rebound in June payrolls that gave the Fed a elbow room on the data front. Starting slowly, May wholesale sales (Tuesday) are forecast to rise 0.8% (median 0.5%), while inventories may rise 0.2% and JOLTS job openings for May are due. Next up, MBA mortgage applications have been on fire in the wake the drop in mortgage rates (Wednesday) and June import prices are seen rising 0.6% as export prices gain 0.3%. EIA energy inventory data last week set crude on a southerly course and will again be closely monitored. The Treasury budget should show a $23 bln surplus in June vs -$52.5 bln deficit in May. PPI for June is set to rise 0.3% (Thursday), or 0.1% core, while initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 265k. Ironically, the Fed finds itself on the sidelines after Brexit, just as data are starting to show policymakers are closing in on their goals. Price pressures are starting to heat up, with the survey medians showing CPI (all Friday) increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, for the June headline and core indexes, in line with our forecasts. Retail sales are expected to be flat, (median rising slightly by 0.1% gain) in the headline and 0.3% rise ex-auto (0.4% median). Empire State may ease to 5.0 in July (median 5.0) from 6.0, with industrial production expected to be unchanged in June (median 0.2%) vs -0.4%; capacity use seen steady at 74.9% (median 75.1%). Michigan sentiment should steady at 93.0 in July (median 93.5) vs 93.5 in June, while business inventories are forecast flat for May (median 0.1%). Fed Beige Book should reiterate modest growth in the economy, which will be the basic outline for the upcoming July 26-27 FOMC meeting. However, it won’t matter much as Brexit and the FX and economic fallout have yet to impact. The June report said activity had been increasing at a moderate pace in most of the 12 Districts, with Chicago and KC noting some slowing. There were modest gains in consumer spending, moderate growth in the service sector, manufacturing activity was mixed, and energy still weak. And though tight labor markets were reported, wages and prices were growing only modestly.

Canada: The Bank of Canada is front and center this week. We expect Wednesday’s announcement and Monetary Policy Report to reveal no change in the current 0.50% rate setting alongside a continuation of the cautiously optimistic growth and inflation outlook. There may be a bit more caution given recent market volatility following the Brexit vote and a run of disappointing data (May trade, June jobs, Q2 Business Outlook Survey). Yet we suspect Governor Poloz will maintain that Canada’s economy remains on track for an eventual return to self-sustaining growth given current very accommodative policy, an expanding U.S. economy and what should be a boost from federal fiscal stimulus. Housing starts (today) are expected to nudge higher a 190.0k unit growth rate in June from the 188.5k clip in May. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are anticipated to fall 1.0% in May after the 1.0% increase in April. The June Teranet/National Bank housing price index (Wednesday), May new home price index (Thursday) and June Existing home sales (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Data releases this week will be too backward looking to add much to the overall outlook, especially as they are mainly focusing on final Eurozone inflation data for June. German HICP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% y/y, French (Wednesday) at 0.3% y/y and overall Eurozone HICP (Friday)at 0.1% y/y. Base effects helped headline rates to move out of negative territory in June, but numbers remain very low and would not stand in the way of further easing, if Draghi sees the need. The Eurozone also has production data for May (Wednesday), which is likely to confirm that growth slowed down markedly in the second quarter.

United Kingdom: The UK data calendar is quiet this week. It won’t be until early August that we get the first official data that encompasses conditions after the June 23 referendum. Please see the calendar for further details on this week’s releases.

China: China released June CPI and PPI over the weekend, which came in at 1.9% y/y from 2.0% from the former, and -2.6% y/y from -2.8% for the latter. The soft inflation data may add to concerns over the economy’s growth pace. The June trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed to $45.0 bln from $50.0 bln in May. The balance of data comes on Friday, with a lot of focus on Q2 GDP, where growth is expected to slow to 6.5% y/y from Q1’s 6.7% outcome. June industrial production is forecast to fall to a 5.8% y/y growth pace, from 6.0% previously. June retail sales are penciled in at 9.8% y/y from 10.0% in May. Such reports could weigh on investor sentiment.

Japan: In Japan, May machine orders (Today) came down hefty 19.9% m/m after dropping 24.7% in April to the lowest level of the year (and -8.2% y/y). June PPI (Tuesday) likely edged up to -4.1% y/y from -4.2%. Revised May industrial production is on tap on (Wednesday) and is seen unchanged at a 1.0% y/y rate.

Australia: In Australia, the calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k job gain in June after the 17.9k rise in May. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.8%, up from 5.7% in May. Home loans (today) dropped by -1.0% m/m in May after the 1.4% increase in April (revised down from 1.7%). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis, delivers a speech to the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, hosted by the University of Sydney (Tuesday). Ellis participates in a panel discussion (Thursday) at the 2016 FMA Asia/Pacific Conference, Sydney.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: US stock and bond markets are closed today for the independence celebrations. There are only two items of note on the abbreviated week’s calendar, the June jobs report (Friday) and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). But with the much changed landscape following Brexit, and the Fed sidelined for the foreseeable future, there may be limited impact from these reports. The jobs report will be important, however, as we look to gauge whether the weakness in April and May data was more an anomaly or a new trend. The FOMC minutes to the June 14, 15 policy meeting will be of lesser value since the discussions will seem rather irrelevant after the surprise Brexit vote. Other data reports this week include the June ISM non-manufacturing index (Wednesday), May factory orders (Tuesday), May trade (Wednesday), and June ADP payrolls (Thursday). The services ISM is expected to bounce back to 53.5 after slipping 2.8 points to 52.9 in May. Such a rebound would help alleviate worries over general economic slowdown. Factory orders are forecast falling 0.7% given the 2.2% drop already reported in durable orders. The May trade deficit is seen widening to -$40.0 bln, after expanding to -$37.4 bln in April, with imports climbing another 1.3% after the 2.1% April jump, while exports should inch up 0.1% after a 1.5% gain previously. The ADP report, which will set the stage for the BLS jobs report, is expected to post a 165k private payroll increase.

Canada: Slate of economic data in Canada is heavy this week. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (today) is expected to reveal divergent moves in sentiment among industries. The impact of the Alberta wildfires and production shutdown should weigh heavily on oil industry sentiment. However, the outlook for the rest of the economy should see further modest improvement. The trade report (Wednesday) is seen revealing a slight unwinding of the trade deficit to -A$2.8 bln from -A$2.9 bln in April. Exports are seen falling 3.0% in May, while imports suffer a similar sized decline to leave the deficit little changed. But the risk is to the downside for both the May deficit and the size of the export pull-back. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to improve 1.0% in value terms during May after the 0.3% dip in April. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is seen improving to 51.0 in June from 49.4 in May. Finally, the employment report (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k jobs gain alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.0% from 6.9% in May.

Europe: the EMU June Services PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 52.8. The manufacturing reading was revised up, which leaves room for an upward revision to the composite, but while survey data confirmed that the economic recovery gathered pace again at the end of Q2, Markit said with the release of the manufacturing number that responses were gathered ahead of the Brexit result, so that they don’t capture the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU. German manufacturing orders (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday) data for May will be even more out of date in light of the recent events. Even if there are sizeable large- ticket items in the orders number that should underpin industrial production going ahead, the risk is that the Brexit referendum will lead to cancellations as investment projects are being put on hold until the future relationship between the rest of the EU and the U.K. is more clear. For what it’s worth, we are looking for a rebound in manufacturing orders of 0.8% m/m (med same), after the -2.0% m/m contraction in the previous month, while production is expected to ease -0.2% m/m (median 0.0%). The data calendar also has Eurozone May retail sales (Tuesday), German trade data for May (Friday), as well as French production numbers (Friday) and EMU PPI (today), none of which will change the outlook, which currently hinges on the Brexit fallout. Events include a German 2-year sale on Wednesday, which will likely see strong demand in the current climate.

United Kingdom: Incoming data will remain largely irrelevant while the numbers continue to pre-date the Brexit vote. The timely YouGov/CEBR consumer confidence survey, which gives weekly updates, gave a taste of what may come, with its headline reading of 104.3 in the days after June 23, down from 111.9 for the first three weeks of June. There is also growing anecdotal evidence of slowing activity in the property market and the market for high ticket items, such as cars. Against this backdrop, it’s difficult to be anything by bearish of sterling, especially against the dollar, which will be natural safe haven refuge from European strife. We expect the pound to see 1.2500 against the dollar before long.

China: June Caixin services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast dipping to 51.0 from 51.2. June fixed investment is due during the week and CPI numbers on Saturday.

Japan: In Japan, the June Nikkei PMI services PMI will be reported (Tuesday). It improved to 50.4 in May from 49.3 previously. May preliminary leading and coincident indices are due (Thursday), followed by June 1st 20-day trade data (Friday). The May current account surplus (Friday) is expected to narrow to JPY 1,800.0 bln from 1,878.5 bln. June bank loan data are also due (Friday).

Australia: In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets (Tuesday) and is expected to maintain the 1.75% setting for the cash rate. The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in June, as had been widely anticipated. In May, they unexpectedly cut to 1.75% from 2.00% following an unanticipated drop in Q1 inflation. Economic data features the May trade report (Tuesday), expected to reveal a deeper -C$1.8 bln deficit in May from the -A$1.6 bln deficit in April. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen improving 0.4% in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Building approvals (Monday) are expected to fall 3.0% in May after the 3.0% gain in April. The May ANZ job ads and the May Melbourne Institute inflation index are both due Monday. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks, Wednesday, at the Thomson Reuters industry event: Examining the FX Code of Conduct (Phase One).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The light data calendar will be an afterthought this week, even with tier 1 housing figures and durables on tap. May existing home sales (Wednesday) are forecast rising 0.9% to a 5.50 mln rate, which would be a third straight monthly gain and would be the strongest sales pace since early 2007. The FOMC noted in its June policy statement that the sector had continued to improve. Prices have also been on the rise amid solid demand and a lack of inventory. The FHFA home price index (Wednesday) is likely to extend higher too. New home sales (Thursday) are expected to drop 12.8% in May to a 540k pace, mostly unwinding the surprising 16.6% April pop to an expansion high 619k clip (best since January 2008). The always volatile durable goods report (Friday) is expected to show a 1.0% drop in May orders, partially correcting from April’s 3.4% surge (mostly due to transportation orders). Consumer sentiment (Friday) is expected unchanged at 94.3 for the final reading from the University of Michigan survey, from the 94.3 preliminary print, down from May’s 94.7. The Markit flash manufacturing (Wednesday) and services (Friday) readings are also due.

Canada: In Canada, thin calendar has April wholesale trade and retail sales, which will finalize the April GDP forecast. April wholesale shipments are expected to rebound 1.0% in April after the 1.0% drop in March. Retail sales are seen rising 0.7% following the 1.0% decline in March. The retail sales ex-autos aggregate is projected to grow 0.6% in April after the 0.3% gain in March. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. The next scheduled event is the announcement and MPR on July 13.

Europe: The data calendar has German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday) and again, the outcome will very much depend on when the responses came in. We expect the Brexit debate to overshadow the survey that focuses on investor confidence and forecast a decline in the June headline reading to 6.0 (median 7.4) from 6.4 in May. The June German Ifo Business Climate index (Friday) is also expected to have eased slightly, as growth momentum slows down, and we are looking for a drop to 107.5 (med same) from 107.7, driven mainly by a decline in the expectations number. Preliminary May PMI numbers (Thursday) meanwhile are unlikely to show a big shift in sentiment. French numbers, which continue to underperform, could improve slightly, but German readings continue to come off highs. This is expected to show the overall Eurozone manufacturing PMI falling to 51.5 (med 51.4) from 51.5 and the services reading steady at 53.2 (median same). The data calendar also has German retail sales, French national confidence data and Italian orders numbers as well as German PPI data.

United Kingdom: The data calendar this week is quiet, and will be overlooked. Government borrowing data for May (Tuesday) and the CBI industrial trends survey for June (also Tuesday) highlight. The week of the Brexit referendum has finally arrived. A high turnout is likely on Thursday, and the outcome may cast an impact that could be, in the words of the BoE last week, “perhaps global” (much to the chagrin of Brexit supporters). Polling over the last couple of weeks has signaled a notable shift in support to the “Vote Leave” campaign, though bookmakers still show an implied probability for the UK to remain in the EU. In the mix is the tragic murder of pro-EU MP Jo Cox, last Thursday, which, as some argue, could bolster the Remain camp. Our hunch is that undecided voters are more likely to fall on the Remain side of the fence come the day of the vote on a fear-of-the-unknown psychology. The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence saw a vote-day swing in favour of remaining in the UK in what many onlookers at the time observed to be on a “vote with the head and not the heart” rational.

China: Apart from the CB Leading Index on Wednesday and MNI Business Sentiment Indicator on Thursday there are no economic releases scheduled for this week.

Japan: Japan’s docket kicked off with the May trade report, where the exports shrank by 11.3% annually while imports decreased by 13.8% from year before. The April all-industry index (Tuesday) is expected to improve 0.6% m/m from the prior 0.1% gain. Revised April leading and coincident indices (Thursday) are forecast to be unchanged at 7.7% m/m and 1.0% m/m, respectively. The June flash Markit manufacturing PMI is also due (Thursday). May services PPI (Friday) likely posted a 0.2% y/y pace, unchanged from April’s reading.

Australia: In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the June meeting (Tuesday). The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in June, as had been widely anticipated. Recall that the central bank unexpectedly cut rates in May to 1.75% from 2.00%, following an unexpected drop in Q1 inflation. This week’s thin calendar also has the Q1 home price index (Tuesday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: FOMC Forecast revisions to be released Wednesday after the FOMC meeting should reveal little change in the official GDP and jobless rate estimates from the March meeting, which remain consistent across the forecast horizon with available growth and jobs data. The US economic calendar will have a few last-minute releases that may inform the Fed decision this week, but none sufficient to provide a counter-weight to the tepid May employment report that temporarily curbed the Fed’s appetite for a hike. Among them are the May retail sales report (Tuesday), which may log a healthy 0.6% gain (median 0.3%) vs 1.3% in April. Import prices are set to rise 1.0% in May, compared to a 0.2% gain in export prices. Business inventories are on tap too, expected be unchanged in April (median 0.3%) vs 0.4%. MBA mortgage market applications (Wednesday) are due, followed by an update on PPI set to rise 0.4% (median 0.3%) or -0.1% core. Empire State is seen flat for June (median -0.4) vs -9.0 in May, still not very inspiring, while industrial production may sink 0.2% in May (median unchanged) and capacity use slip to 75.2% from 75.4%. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% for both headline and core in May (Thursday) and a 1.1% y/y reading won’t rattle the Fed. Philly Fed may resurface to 2.0 in June (median 0.7%) from -1.8, while the current account narrows to -$124.6 bln in Q1 from -$125.3 bln in Q4. Jobless claims are forecast to snap back 16k to 280k, while the NAHB housing market index may tick up to 59 in June from 58. Housing starts may sink 0.2% to 1,170 (Friday).

Canada: In Canada, the April manufacturing report and May CPI release highlight this week’s calendar, which also has appearances from Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. April manufacturing, due Wednesday, is expected to reveal a 1.0% rebound in shipment values following the 0.9% drop in March. Total CPI, due Friday, is seen expanding at a 1.7% annual pace in May following an identical 1.7% y/y gain in April. But total CPI is seen jumping 0.6% m/m in May after the 0.3% gain in April, as higher gasoline prices and depreciation of the Canadian dollar both conspire to drive the index higher relative to April. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI index is projected to expand at a 2.2% y/y pace in May, matching the 2.2% rate in April. But here too we see acceleration in the monthly growth rate, with core CPI seen expanding 0.5% m/m in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Existing home sales for May (Wednesday) and the May Teranet/National home price index (Tuesday) also feature this week. BoC Governor Poloz speaks (Wednesday) at the Yukon Chamber of Commerce, Whitehorse, YT. A press conference will follow the speech. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Friday) to the Canadian Payments Association in Calgary. There is not a press conference.

Europe: Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet again this week and Greece will hope to finally fully complete the bailout review, which would also open the way for the ECB to consider re-instating the waiver on Greek government bonds. This would allow Greek banks to participate in the central bank’s regular refinancing operations and be another step back towards normality. The events calendar also has a German 10-year Bund auction on Wednesday as well as the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday and several ECB speakers including Draghi (Friday). The overall message is likely to be the same, namely that the ECB is on hold while keeping the door open for further action if necessary. Data releases won’t change the overall outlook. There is a bunch of final May HICP numbers, with the overall Eurozone reading expected to be confirmed at -0.1% y/y (median same), and core inflation at 0.8% y/y. The ECB already had preliminary numbers at the time of the last meeting and is confident that current measures are sufficient to bring inflation back on a gradual growth path. The Eurozone also has trade numbers, BoP data and industrial production numbers for April. Production is expected to have rebounded slightly and we are looking for a marginal widening of the trade surplus, but overall data are unlikely to change expectations for a slowdown in overall GDP growth in the second quarter of the year.

United Kingdom: In the shadow of the EU vote, the week’s BoE June policy meeting and data calendar won’t carry as much significance as would usually be the case. The BoE’s MPC (announcing Thursday) will more than likely leave the repo rate at 0.5% by unanimous vote, and we don’t expect much deviation in the tone of the minutes to those of last month, nor last month’s edition of the quarterly Inflation Report. UK inflation data (Tuesday) has us expecting a 0.4% y/y reading on headline CPI (median same), up on April’s 0.3% y/y. This would still be below the 0.5% y/y cycle peak that was seen in March. Labour data covering April and May are also up (Wednesday), where we expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1% (median same). Retail sales for May (Thursday) should show a rebound from April weakness. We expect a 3.7% y/y gain versus the -0.9% figure seen in April.

China: In China, May industrial production (today) came in unchanged compared to the 6.0% y/y April result. May retail sales (today) dipped to 10.0% y/y from 10.1% y/y in April. Foreign direct investment (today) dropped to 3.8% y/y clip in May versus 4.8% previously. Money supply figures are expected during the week.

Japan: Japan kicked the week off with the June MoF business outlook survey (BSI Manufacturing Index), which dropped to -11.1, versus the -7.9 reading seen in May. Revised April industrial production (Tuesday) is seen steady at 3.8% y/y. The BoJ is expected to keep policy unchanged at its meeting which culminates on (Thursday). Improved incoming domestic data, including upgraded Q1 GDP, stronger production, and a delay in the increase in the national sales tax proposed for April 2017 should be enough to keep the Bank on hold for now, while Governor Kuroda will likely want to further assess the impact of negative interest rates before easing further. The Q2 Tankan report, due June 30, may give him the data he needs on that front.

Australia: In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle delivers remarks (Tuesday) at the ASIFMA-GFMA Market Liquidity Conference 2016 in Hong Kong. His appearance will be via video link. Deputy Governor Lowe delivers a speech (Thursday) at the Economic Society of Australia (QLD) Business Lunch in Brisbane. Economic data features May employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 10.6k rise in April. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.7% in May, matching April.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Fed’s Yellen will have some dovish food for thought following the May payrolls shortfall when she delivers a prime-time speech today on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia from 12:30 ET. The US economic calendar this week may be a little anti-climactic relative to the big May jobs setback on Friday, which upended rising odds favoring a June hike that were all but eviscerated. On tap is the revision of Q1 productivity (Tuesday), forecast to be upgraded to -0.5% (median -0.6%) from -1.0%, while unit labor costs may back up to 4.3% from 4.1%. Rounding out the session will be an update of April consumer credit, which is set to be cut in half to $15.0 bln from the surprise $29.7 bln surge in March. MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), along with Yellen’s favorite JOLTS and the EIA energy inventories report. Initial jobless claims are expected to be steady at 267k (median 270k) for the June 4 week (Thursday), while the wholesale trade report may show a 0.1% gain for inventories and 1.3% rise in sales for April. Capping the meager week of data (Friday) will be Michigan sentiment, seen ebbing to 94.5 in June (median 94.0) from 94.7 and the Treasury budget gap is set to widen to -$61.0 bln in May (median -$60.0 bln) vs the tax-related $106.5 bln April surplus.

Canada: In Canada a busy week is highlighted by the May employment report and the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report. Economic data begins with the May Ivey PMI (Tuesday), expected to slip to a seasonally adjusted 51.0 in May from 53.1 in April. Housing starts (Tuesday) are seen slowing slightly to 190.0k rate in May from 191.5k in April. Building permit values are expected to slip 1.0% m/m in April after the 7.0% tumble in March. The new home price index (Thursday) is seen improving 0.2% m/m in April after the 0.2% gain in March. The rate of capacity utilization (Thursday) is projected at 81.3% in Q1 from 81.1% in Q4. Employment is expected to nudge 5.0k higher in May after the 2.1k drop in April. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.1%. The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review (Thursday) will be followed by a press conference. The Financial System Review is released twice a year.

Europe: With the ECB entrenched in wait-and-see mode and focused on implementing the March measures, all the while eying the wider implications of the UK referendum on the EU and the Eurozone, data releases may be an important factor in the short term policy outlook. Still, German manufacturing orders (today) in particular will be monitored carefully. We forecast a correction of -0.8% m/m (median -0.5%) in April, after the 1.9% m/m jump in March, with the latter still likely to lift production (Tuesday), however, by 0.8% m/m (median 0.7%). March industrial production numbers (Tuesday) will have been impacted by the earlier timing of the Easter holidays this year, which may not have been fully captured by the seasonal adjustment process and could lead to an upside surprise in the numbers. The final German HICP rate (Friday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.0% y/y (median same), and final Eurozone Q1 GDP (Tuesday) at 0.5% q/q. The numbers were stronger than initially expected and the breakdown is likely to show strong domestic demand and a pick-up in investment, but forward looking indicators already point to a slowdown in growth in the second quarter to around 0.3% q/q at best. The recovery is limping ahead, but even with the ECB’s very accommodative policy, it will take a long time for the output gap to close, especially as governments remain slow to implement unpopular structural reforms. The data calendar also includes French production and German trade data as well as national inflation numbers from the smaller Eurozone countries.

United Kingdom: Brexit polling will remain the central focus for sterling markets as the June 23 vote starts to loom large on the near horizon. Over the last week the “Leave” campaign, aided by immigration numbers hitting near record levels and their neatly coinciding proposals for a points-based immigration system, have narrowed the “Remain” camp’s lead. As of late Friday the FT Brexit tracker was showing 46% support “Remain” and 43% support for “Leave,” down from respective 47% and 41% levels that was being seen a week before. UK bookmaker Ladbrokes was showing that 71% of Brexit bets were for “Remain,” down from 81% a week before. The calendar this week is relatively quiet, featuring the May BRC retail sales survey (Tuesday), which we expect to show a rebound to +0.3% y/y in the headline same-store figure (median same) after the disappointing -0.9% y/y figure of April, April production data (Wednesday), where we anticipate a 0.0% m/m outcome (median same) after +0.3% m/m in March, and trade data (Thursday), where we project a near unchanged goods deficit of GBP 11.0 bln.

China: In China, the May trade surplus (Wednesday) is expected to widen to $53.0 bln from $45.6 bln in April. May foreign direct investment (Wednesday) is seen at up 3.0% y/y from the previous 6.0% outcome. May CPI and PPI (Thursday) is forecast at 2.2% y/y from 2.3%, and -3.3% y/y from -3.4%, respectively. May loan growth (Friday) is penciled in at 14.5% y/y from 14.4%, while May new yuan loans are expected to expand to CNY 700.0 bln from 555.6 bln previously. April leading indicators are tentatively due during the week. May industrial production and retail sales are expected to be released next weekend. Elsewhere in the region, India’s RBI meets (Tuesday) where rates are seen steady at 6.50%. April industrial production (Friday) is seen up 0.5% y/y from 0.1% previously, along with the May trade report. South Korea’s BoK meets (Thursday) with policy seen steady, and rates unchanged at 1.50%. Taiwan May CPI (Tuesday) is forecast to cool to 1.6% y/y from 1.9% previously, while May exports (Tuesday) are seen falling 7.0% y/y from -6.5% in April. In Malaysia, April industrial production (Friday) is forecast to have risen to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in March. Philippines May CPI (Tuesday) is expected to tick up to 1.2% y/y from the prior 1.1% outcome. April unemployment data is due Thursday, with April exports due on Friday.

Japan: In Japan, preliminary April leading and coincident indices (Tuesday) are expected to rebound 0.5% m/m from -0.4% for the former, and rise 1.0% from the prior 0.4% gain for the latter. Revised Q1 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast to improve to 1.8% q/q from the initial 1.7% outcome. April current account surplus (Wednesday) is predicted to narrower to JPY 2,000 bln from 2,980.4 bln in March. First 20-day May trade data is also due (Wednesday). April machine orders (Thursday) are penciled in at -4.0% from the prior 5.5% increase.

Australia: In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) meets, with no change anticipated to the current 1.75% setting for the cash rate. The data calendar is thin. ANZ job ads (today) are seen falling 0.2% in March after the 0.8% pull-back in April. The Melbourne Institute Experimental Inflation Gauge (today) is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in May after the 0.1% gain in April.

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day.  Last Friday, Fed Chair Yellen confirmed what other policymakers have been saying, that a rate hike would be appropriate in “coming months” if data continued to improve. The employment report for May (Friday) will be most crucial piece of data heading into the June 14, 15 FOMC meeting. While the bar has been lowered in terms of the degree of strength necessary to allow the Fed to pull the trigger on June 15, an unambiguously soft report would likely delay a move. We’re forecasting a 190k increase in jobs, following the tepid 160k April gain. The unemployment rate is seen dipping back to 4.9% after inching up to 5.0%. Earnings are expected to rise 0.2%, while the workweek should dip to 34.4 from 34.5. The May ISM report (Wednesday) will be another key, along with the non manufacturing numbers. May income and consumption (Tuesday) will be monitored too as they are also key inputs in the Fed’s calculus. Income is expected to rise 0.4%.Consumption is expected to climb 0.6%, which would be the best since last May’s 0.9% print. Vehicle sales will be a key indicator too. Sales are seen 1.0% to a 17.5 mln pace, from 17.3 mln in April. The April trade numbers are a major component in the GDP outlook and the deficit is expected to widen slightly to -$40.9 bln from -$40.4 bln. Other data this week includes the ADP private payroll survey, the Chicago PMI, construction spending and factory orders.). The manufacturing sentiment index is estimated dipping to 50.5 after falling 1 point to 50.8 in April. Fedspeak will help the markets price in the likelihood of a June or July tightening after Yellen added to the drumbeat of a rate hike in coming months. Governor Powell (voter) and Kaplan are on tap (Thursday) with the former discussing regulation and the latter speaking on the economy. Brainard (voter) and Evans (Friday) will give their views on policy and the economy. And Mester (voter) speaks on macro stability (Saturday) at a Riksbank conference. Fedspeak will dry up next week heading into the blackout period ahead of the June 14, 15 FOMC meeting.

Canada:  The week begins with the Q1 current account (Monday) expected to reveal a widening to a -C$16.5 bln deficit from the -C$15.4 bln shortfall in Q4. The industrial product price index (Monday) is seen falling 0.3% (m/m, nsa) in April after the 0.6% drop in March. The real Q1 GDP report (Tuesday) should show a sharp acceleration to a 2.8% clip (q/q, saar) from the 0.8% pace in Q4. GDP for March, also due Tuesday, is seen dipping 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the identical sized drop in February. May industry level vehicle sales figures are expected on Wednesday. The RBC May manufacturing PMI is also due Wednesday. The week ends with the April trade report (Friday), where a substantial narrowing in the deficit to -C$2.5 is projected after the shortfall ballooned out to -C$3.4 bln in March from -C$2.5 bln in February. Exports are seen improving 3.3% m/m while imports gain 1.0% m/m. Productivity (Friday) rounds out the week, with a 0.3% gain (q/q, sa) anticipated for Q1 after the 0.1% rise in Q4. The Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Schembri presents (Thursday) and Governor Poloz speaks Saturday to the Canadian Economists Association, with a press conference scheduled after this speech.

Europe: The ECB policy decision (Thursday) and preliminary May inflation data take centre stage this week. Eurozone officials have made it pretty clear that they are on hold at the moment and focused on implementing the measures already announced. Data calendar is full too and includes the first round of preliminary inflation data for May, as well as ESI economic confidence and German labour market data. We are looking for a rise in the German HICP rate (Monday) to -0.1% y/y from -0.3% y/y and see French and Italian readings lifting to 0.1% y/y and -0.2 %y/y respectively. French rate lifting to 0.1% y/y from -0.1% y/ y, which should bring the overall Eurozone CPI (Tuesday) to 0.0% y/y from -0.2% y/y in the previous month.  The May round of survey data completes with the final readings of manufacturing and services PMIs, which are expected to be confirmed at 51.5 and 53.1 respectively. The ESI Economic Confidence Indicator (Monday) meanwhile is seen rising to 104.4  from 103.9 in April. Germany remains one of the outperformers and with the output gap closing the labour market continues to look tight. We see the overall jobless number falling further in May by -5K,  which would leave the jobless rate at a very low 6.2%. The overall Eurozone rate for April meanwhile is seen steady at 10.2%. The very busy data calendar also has M3 money supply as well as Eurozone PPI and retail sales and French consumer spending.

UK: Sterling markets will be closed Monday for a UK public holiday. The composite PMI reading (Friday) is forecast rising to 52.3  from April’s cycle low of 51.9. Lending data from the BoE is also up (Wednesday), which we expect to reveal a drop in mortgage approvals in April to 68.9k  from 71.4k in March. Thursday marks the three weeks to go mark until EU-vote day, so Brexit polling will remain very much in focus. The G7 waded in on Friday with warnings of economic and political consequences if the UK left the EU, and markets will be looking to see if this helps maintain the recent run of polls pointing to a rise in support for “Remain.” Bookmaker Ladbrokes (since last Wednesday) has been giving 81% odds for the Brits to vote for remaining in the EU, which compares to 79% at the beginning of last week and 71% at the beginning of the week previous to that. Opinion polls suggest the vote will be much closer. The FT Brexit poll tracker on Friday was showing 46% support for Remain and 41% for Leave, unchanged from the previous day.

China: May PMI’s are awaited (Wednesday), where the official CFLP series is expected to slip to 49.9 from 50.1, and the Caixin/Market series at 49.0 from 49.4.

Japan: April unemployment (Tuesday) is seen steady at 3.2%. April personal income (Tuesday) is forecast to have inched up 0.1% y/y from the previous 0.3% gain, while PCE is expected to improve to a -1.5% y/y pace from -5.3% in March. April industrial production (Tuesday) is penciled in at -1.0% y/y from the sharp 3.8% gains in March. April housing starts (Tuesday) likely rose 3.0% y/y from the 8.4% clip previously. April construction orders are also due Tuesday. The Q1 MoF capex survey (Wednesday) is forecast posting a modest 1.0% y/y gain from the 8.5% pop seen in Q4. The May Markit/Nikkei PMI (Wednesday) likely slipped further into contractionary territory, expected at 47.5 from 48.2 in April, based on the drop in the flash reading to 47.6. April auto sales data are also due (Wednesday), while May consumer confidence (Thursday) is seen falling to 40.5 from 40.8. Just as important as the data could be comments from PM Abe. There’s been talk that he’ll announce a delay to the proposed 2017 VAT tax hike. An Abe aide reportedly indicated the PM told senior advisors of the LDP that the increase will be postponed until October 2019. Nikkei News also indicated he is planning up to $90.7 bln in fiscal stimulus.

Australia: Q1 GDP (Wednesday), expected to grow 0.7% in Q1 following the 0.6% gain in Q4 (q/q, sa). The Q1 current account balance (Tuesday) is seen at -A$19.0 bln from -A$21.1 bln in Q4. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen at -A$2.0 bln in April from -A$2.2 bln in March. Retail sales (Thursday) are expected to rise 0.2% m/m in April after the 0.4% gain in March. There is nothing from the usually vocal Reserve Bank of Australia this week.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Global markets will remain pre-occupied with assessing risks for a June Fed rate hike, and will focus on Fedspeak, data, and international economic and financial conditions for more insight. Chair Yellen’s conversation with Greg Mankiw on Friday will be the highlight of the week. Data will be important for the Fed outlook. Decent results on housing, durable orders and PMIs will be necessary but not sufficient to underpin rate expectations. The second reading on Q1 GDP (Friday) will be of interest as growth is central to the FOMC outlook. Growth is forecast to be revised higher to 0.9%, almost double the 0.5% initial reading. April new home sales (Tuesday) are projected to rebound 1.8% to a 520k pace. April new durable orders (Thursday) should rise another 0.5% after March’s 0.8% rebound from February’s 3.1% drop. The advance trade report on goods (Wednesday) is expected to post a $58.6 bln April deficit after narrowing to -$56.9 bln in March. The final May consumer sentiment report (Friday) is expected to inch up to 96.0 from the 95.8 preliminary print. Markit’s flash May readings on manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thursday) are due, along with the May Richmond Fed index (Tuesday) and the KC Fed survey (Thursday), the FHFA home price index for March (Wednesday), and April pending home sales (Thursday).

A busy Fedspeak week, topped by Chair Yellen on Friday also includes: Monday with St Louis Fed’s Bullard (a voter) speaking on normalization, he is also speaking on Thursday.  SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter, is also on tap (Monday). Philly Fed centrist-hawk and non-voter Harker (Monday). He’ll be back at the podium Wednesday speaking at a forum on the economy. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (Wednesday) speaks on energy and monetary policy also Wednesday Dallas Fed’s Kaplan and Fed governor Powell.

Canada:  Markets are closed Monday for Victoria Day. There is a BoC policy announcement (Wednesday). We expect no change in the current 0.50% rate setting alongside a constructive outlook. Average weekly earnings (Thursday) feature on a very thin data docket this week. We expect earnings to expand 0.2% m/m in March after the 0.3% gain in February.

Europe: Greece and an almost full round of May survey data will take centre stage this week. Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet once again on Tuesday to discuss the progress of the Greek bailout review. Data releases include the detailed reading of German Q1 GDP, which is likely to confirm overall growth at 0.7% q/q. The week starts with preliminary PMI readings for May (Monday) where we are looking for a rise in the manufacturing reading to 51.9 from 51.7 and an improvement in the services reading to 53.3 from 53.1. Germany has both ZEW investor confidence and the Ifo reading for May (Tuesday). ZEW Economic Sentiment is seen improving to 11.4 from 11.2.  The Ifo Business Climate reading, meanwhile, should benefit from the robust orders trend in the last couple of months and ongoing strong consumer demand and we are looking for a rise in the overall reading to 106.8 from 106.6. The calendar also has final Spanish Q1 GDP, German retail sales as well as French business confidence numbers. The Eurogroup meeting aside, events include ECB speak from Praet, Knot, Villeroy and Constancio among others, which are likely to confirm the central bank’s wait and see stance.

UK: This Wednesday will mark the four-weeks-to-go point until the June 23 referendum on EU membership. Support for the UK remaining in the EU seemed to advance last week, with the FT’s Brexit poll tracker on Friday showing 47% favour Remain versus 41% favouring Leave. The bookmaker Ladbrokes was on Friday giving 79% odds for the UK stay in the single market, up from 71% at the start of the week. The week’s calendar starts with monthly government borrowing figures and the CBI’s May survey on retail and wholesale sales (Tuesday). The latter is expected to improve to a +8 reading in the headline. The second estimate of Q1 GDP data (Thursday) is expected to remain unrevised at +0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y. April BBA mortgage approvals and the May Gfk consumer sentiment (Friday) round out the week, with both expected to dip slightly from respective prior-month outcomes.

China:  China’s calendar is empty. However, traders will closely monitor CNY. The yuan was fixed slightly higher late last week with many interpreting the action as a sign from the PBoC that it wants to maintain stability if the dollar were to gain further.

Japan: Already published earlier today a series of weaker than expected data: Manufacturing PMI down to 47.6 from 48.2, All industry activity improved to 0.1% from -1.2% but was well below expectations of 0.7% and the Leading Economic indicator fell from 98.9 to 93.3. next data release is not until  Thursday when April services PPI data will be released, expected up 0.2% y/y, unchanged from March. April national CPI (Friday) is seen at -0.4% y/y overall, from the prior -0.1%, and -0.4% y/y from -0.3% on a core basis. Tokyo April CPI should slip to -0.5% y/y overall from -0.4%, and fall to -0.5% y/y from -0.3% on a core basis.

Australia: A thin docket of economic data features Q1 private new capital expenditures (during the week), seen improving 1.0% following the 0.8% gain in Q4 (q/q, sa). Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens delivers a speech (Tuesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle has a busy end to the week.  He has public engagements Thursday  and two on (Friday) in New York.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: It’s a busy and important week of data and events, April CPI (Tuesday) could be the key variable for near-term market direction as it is a crucial input for the policy outlook. Inflation has been one of the major disappointments for Committee members. We’re forecasting a 0.4% climb in April, after a 0.1% March gain, with the core doubling up with a 0.2% increase from the prior 0.1%. The May NAHB housing market index (Monday), seen improving to 59 from 58 over the prior 3 months. April housing starts (Tuesday) should rise to 1.120 mln from 1.089 mln, continuing the choppy monthly pattern. Building permits should increase too, not having posted a gain since November. Existing home sales for April (Friday) are forecast rising to a 5.40 mln clip, extending the 5.1% rebound to 5.330 mln in March. Industrial production release (Tuesday) which should post a 0.2% rebound after tumbling 0.6% in March, with capacity utilization rising to 74.9% from 74.8%. The Empire State index (Monday) is expected to dip to 7.0 in May after surging nearly 9 points to 9.6 in April, but this would be only the 3rd positive number (expansionary territory) since last July. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should bounce to 5.0 in April after dropping back below zero to -1.6 in March. The FOMC minutes to the April 26, 27 (Wednesday) policy meeting will be interesting, though they will be dated following the data reports earlier this month on employment, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing, as well as Fedspeak.

Canada: Data reports are sparse, but important for the outlook. Manufacturing (Tuesday) is expected to plunge 2.0% in March after the 3.0% drop in February. Wholesale shipments (Thursday) are seen falling 0.5% in March after the 2.2% tumble in February. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to fall 0.3% in March after the 0.4% gain in February. The ex-auto sales aggregate is projected to decline 0.2% after an 0.2% rise. CPI (Friday) is projected to gain 0.5% m/m in April after the 0.6% rise in March. April existing home sales are due on Monday, and we expect annual sales growth to slow to a 10.0% rate from the 12.2% pace in March. The Bank of Canada’s twice yearly Review is published Monday.

Europe:  Monday is a public holiday in many parts of Europe and the data calendar only starts in earnest on Tuesday with Eurozone trade numbers for March, which will be followed by current account data on Wednesday. Both should show solid surpluses. Final Eurozone CPI data for April, (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at -0.2%. The central bank minutes for the ECB’s April meeting (Thursday).

UK: The calendar brings April inflation data (Tuesday), April CPI is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. Monthly labour reports covering March and April (Wednesday), and April retail sales (Thursday). The BoE’s warnings of Brexit consequences last week (in its quarterly Inflation Report) went down like a balloon full of euro coins with “Leave” supporters, but sterling markets remained none too perturbed.

China: China released retail sales and industrial production over the weekend, and both disappointed, which could revive fears over the economy.

Japan: April PPI (Monday) is expected to inch up to -3.6% from -3.8%. Revised March industrial production (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 3.6%, while on Wednesday 1st preliminary Q1 GDP is forecast to have risen 0.5% q/q from the prior -1.1% outcome. March machine orders (Thursday) should be down 1.0% versus the 9.2% drop in February. Also, the March all-industry index (Thursday) is expected to bounce 0.1% m/m from -1.2% previously.

Australia: The minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting (Tuesday) could be an interesting read given the surprise decision to cut rates 0.25% to 1.75%. “Unexpectedly low” inflation data in Q1 was the trigger. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle speaks (Wednesday) on “Developments in Global FX Markets and Challenges in Currency Internationalisation from an Australian Perspective.” Employment (Thursday) is expected to gain 5.0k in April after the 26.1k rise in March. The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 5.8% from 5.7% in March. The wage cost index (Wednesday) is expected to grow 0.4% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q4.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The headline job numbers were clearly disappointing, but many of the details, including the workweek and earnings were better than expected. The economic calendar is comparatively lean this week. Updates resume with the wholesale trade report (Tuesday) where sales are projected to climb 0.5% (median 0.3%) and inventories are seen flat in March. Yellen’s favored JOLTS job openings report is also due for some hindsight on payrolls. The MBA and EIA reports (Wednesday) will be followed later by the Treasury budget gap, forecast to widen to $75.0 bln in April (median $112.5 bln) vs -$108 bln in March. Import prices are expected to rise 0.7% in April (median 0.6%) vs 0.2% (Thursday), while export prices rise 0.1% (median unchanged), and initial jobless claims are seen dipping 7k to 267k for the week ended May 7. Retail sales will anchor the week (Friday) and are forecast to rise 0.6% (median 0.8%) vs -0.3% in April, or +0.4% ex-auto, to potentially snap their 2016 losing streak. This will be followed by April PPI, forecast to rise 0.4% (median 0.3%) vs -0.1%; core rising only 0.1% (median 0.1%). Michigan sentiment is seen rising to 90.0 in May vs 89.0 and business inventories may rise 0.3% in March (median 0.2%) vs -0.1%.

Canada: The April housing starts report is the headliner (Monday), and growth in starts is expected to slow to a 195.0k unit rate from the 204.3k clip in March. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to grow 0.2% m/m in March after the identical 0.2% rise in February. The Teranet/National Bank home price index for April will be released Thursday. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will participate in a panel discussion (Wednesday) on the topic of “Paradigm Shift: The Changing Global Bond Market and Implications for Investors.”

Europe:  The ECB remains entrenched in wait and see mode, while the debate about the ECB’s expansionary policy continues in Germany and Greek bailout review talks drag on and once again raise Grexit fears amid concerns about the stability of the Eurozone. Eurozone finance ministers and ECB officials are meeting on Monday to discuss the state of play. German production and trade reports for March will round off the first quarter data releases, ahead of the preliminary GDP number on Friday.  Tuesday sees production data which is expected to be  of -3% m/m, which is in line with consensus and would tie in with the weak orders number from February. The German HICP rate is expected to be confirmed at just -0.3% y/y (corrected from an erroneously released -0.1% reported initially) and French HICP at -0.1% y/y, which would leave the overall Eurozone number at -0.1% y/y. The official take is that headline rates will start to move higher again later in the year and for now the ECB remains firmly on hold.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will conduct its May meeting (Tuesday), where a no-change stance by unanimous vote is all but certain. Last week saw the April UK composite PMI undershoot expectations and fall to three-year lows, with Markit, the survey compiler, confirming that the risk of leaving the EU is affecting business and investment planning. There is a circulating argument in markets that the UK economy will rebound sharply in the event of a vote to remain in the EU at the Jun-23 referendum, but the latest FT poll tracker suggests the issue remains a close call, with 46% favouring Remain and 43% favouring Leave, which compares to respective figures of 47% and 41% that were seen at the start of last week. This, along with the sizable chunk of undecided voters, maintains the Brexit vote as a high-stakes risk event for the UK and sterling, and for the euro itself. UK calendar commences with the Halifax house price report for April (Monday), which is expected to show some cooling. The April BRC retail sales survey follows (Tuesday), where there is downside risk, ahead of March trade data (also Tuesday), expected to show a deficit of GPB 11.2 bln.  March production data (Wednesday) is expected to show an on-the-month rebound following weakness in February. We expect a 0.3% rise in industrial output (median +0.4%) versus the -0.4% February reading. The y/y figure is expected at -0.4%, after -0.5% in February.

China: April CPI and PPI (Tuesday) are forecast at 2.2% y/y from 2.3%, and -4.0% y/y from -4.3%, respectively. April loan growth is penciled in at 14.5% y/y from 14.7%, while new yuan loans are expected to shrink to CNY 800.0 bln from 1,379.0 bln in March.

Japan: Preliminary March leading and coincident indices are due Wednesday, with March current account data (Thursday) which is forecast at a JPY 2,800.0 bln surplus from the 2,434.9 bln previously. April credit data is due Thursday as well, while Friday brings the March tertiary index, which is seen down 0.2% m/m from the prior -0.1% outcome, along with money supply figures.

Australia: Economic data is thin. Housing investment (Wednesday) is expected to fall 1.0% m/m in March following the 1.5% gain in February. ANZ job ads (Monday) are expected to rise 0.1% m/m in April after the 0.2% gain in March. The thin calendar will not provide anything new on the inflation outlook and hence have no impact on the outlook for policy, with is for further rate cuts this year following last week’s surprise 25 basis point easing and dovish reduction in the RBA’s inflation projection for 2016. RBA Governor (Financial System) Edey speaks at the Cards and Payments Australia conference in Melbourne (Thursday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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