Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There is a lot of potentially relevant US data due out this week, including CPI and retail sales. The week starts with March trade prices (Tuesday), where import prices should jump 1.6% (0.9% median) thanks to a rebound in oil (-0.1% ex-petro), while export prices are slated to sink 0.2% (median -0.3%). The Treasury budget is also due for March, with the deficit seen almost doubling to -$94.0 bln versus last March’s -$52.9 bln. Wednesday sees, retail sales, with a flat forecast for the headline (median 0.3%) amid some drag from chain store sales vs -0.1% in February. Excluding autos, sales should rebound 0.3% after the prior 0.1% dip. PPI is set to rise 0.2% headline (median 0.3%) or just 0.1% core, with business inventories seen sinking 0.2% in February. Inflation’s better half, the CPI report is due (Thursday) and expected to rise 0.1% in March (median 0.2%) vs -0.2% in February. Initial jobless claims may dip 7k to 260k (median 270k) for the April 9 week. Empire State is projected to sink to 0.0 in April (median 2.2) vs 0.6 (Friday), along with a 0.4% fall (median unchanged) in industrial production for March vs -0.5% and a drop in capacity use to 75.0% (median 75.4%) vs 75.4%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may hold steady at 91.0 (median 92.0) and the TIC inflow report is also due.

Canada: The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement and MPR (Wednesday) loom large this week. We expect no change in the current 0.50% policy setting to come alongside a slightly more upbeat growth outlook, but one that maintains that ample downside risk to growth is still in place. The take-away from the announcement and MPR is expected to be for an extended period of steady policy, as the Bank remains on the sidelines while past monetary stimulus continues to work through the system and fresh fiscal stimulus comes on-line. Economic data this week is back-loaded, with February new home prices (Thursday) and February manufacturing shipments (Friday) due at the end of the week. Manufacturing shipments are expected to fall 1.5% in February after the 2.3% surge in January. The new home price index is seen expanding 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% rise in January. Existing home sales for March (Friday) and the Teranet/National HPI for March (Wednesday) are also due out.

Europe: The Eurozone is once again looking shaky. Ongoing problems in Greek bailout talks have rekindled Grexit fears and with them, the question arises of just how much risk sharing there really is in the Eurozone. Data releases this week focus mainly on final inflation readings for March. German HICP moved back into positive territory and should be confirmed at 0.1% y/y, but with French HICP at -0.1% y/y, Spanish inflation at -1.0% y/y and the Italian HCIP rate at -0.3% y/y, the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday), is expected to be confirmed at a still negative -0.1%. Other data releases include February production and trade data, which are too backward looking to change the overall outlook for the ECB. We expect production to correct -0.9% m/m (median same), from the strong jump in January. The trade surplus meanwhile should widen judging by the improvement in the dominant German number that month, which was backed by a rebound in exports.

UK: The UK calendar has the April BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday), along with the latest BRC survey of retail sales (Tuesday) and inflation figures (also Tuesday). The BoE is widely expected to maintain an unchanged policy stance, by a unanimous vote. The BRC retail sales release is expected to rebound in March data to +1/4% y/y in the like-for-like measure, up from +0.1% y/y growth in February. Record levels of employment and rising real incomes are underpinning the sector. Headline CPI is expected to tick higher, to +0.4% (median same) from 0.3% in the month previous. The core CPI reading is also see nudging up, to +1.4% y/y from 1.3%. Such outcomes would be consistent with BoE projections.

China:  March CPI and PPI have been published earlier Today. Consumer prices were expected to rise to a 2.4% y/y rate from 2.3%, but they remained stuck on 2.3%. PPI however, posted a -4.3% y/y pace from -4.9%, better than expected. March trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed slightly to $32.0 bln from $32.6 bln. Friday brings the balance of data releases, including March retail sales which are expected to slow to a 10.0% y/y pace from 11.1% previously. March industrial production is seen improving to up 5.7% y/y from 5.4%, while March fixed investment likely ticked up to 10.3% y/y from 10.2%.

Japan: February machine orders have been published earlier Today and the decline was 9.2%, better than the expected 10.0% m/m versus the 15% January rise. March bank loan data is due Tuesday, followed by March PPI (Wednesday) which is see steady at -3.4% y/y. Revised February industrial production data comes on Friday, and is seen at -6.2%, unchanged from the preliminary reading.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review (Friday) will be of considerable interest. As for economic data, the March employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 0.3k rise in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8%, matching the 5.8% in February. Housing investment (Monday) is expected to rise 1.0% in February after falling 3.9% in January.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes will highlight a light calendar. FOMC minutes March 17, 18 highlight (Wednesday). At that meeting, policymakers had many uncertain and conflicting signals with which to contend. And in the end the decision was to punt. Fedspeak will be very interesting this week, Chair Yellen (Thursday) all 4 voting Presidents and 3 non-voting Presidents all have speeches scheduled this week. Fundamentals this week include: the March ISM nonmanufacturing report and February international trade, along with February JOLTS (all Tuesday) factory orders for February (Today), the Markit services PMI (Tuesday), weekly jobless claims and February consumer credit (Thursday), and wholesale trade (Friday).

Canada: A narrowing is seen in the February trade deficit (Tuesday) to -C$0.4 bln from -C$0.7 bln in January, with exports growing 1.5% m/m after the 1.0% gain in January. An improvement in the March Ivey PMI to 55.0 on a seasonally adjusted basis is anticipated (Wednesday) from 53.4 in February. February building permits (Thursday) are expected to rise 3.0% after the 9.8% drop in January. A pull-back to 205.0k in March is projected for housing starts (Friday) from the 212.6k growth rate in February. A 10.0k rebound in employment (Friday) is seen for March following the 2.3k slip in February and 5.7k decline in January. A steady 7.3% for the unemployment rate is anticipated. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will speak (Monday) and Wilkins also has a speech on Tuesday.

Europe: Risk aversion has picked up again in the Eurozone and fresh pressure on European stock markets will keep pressure on Draghi to do even more to support the economy, especially as inflation remains stuck in negative territory. Data releases focus on German orders and production data, Manufacturing orders (Tuesday), are expected to decline, Industrial production (Thursday) is expected to have also corrected in February after the strong start to the year. ECB minutes are published (Thursday). Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs (Wednesday) expected at 54.0, producer price inflation, which is seen falling further into negative territory and retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.1% m/m (median same), after 0.4% m/m in January. Germany has trade data on Friday and France production numbers on the same day.

UK: Sterling markets will start the new week in a worried state after Friday’s weak March manufacturing PMI survey caused a steep decline in the GBP. Tuesday’s release of the services PMI survey with economic growth mostly reliant on the big service sector, and after an unexpectedly weak showing in February, which at 52.7 was the worst reading since March 2013. The construction PMI is also due (Today), expected at 54.1 in March, which would be almost unchanged from 54.2 in the prior month.

February industrial production numbers are also due (Friday), expected to ebb to 0.1% m/m growth (median same) after a 0.3% m/m rise in January, and fall to 0.0% in the y/y comparison, compared to 0.2%. February trade numbers (also Friday) are expected to show the visible goods deficit come in at GBP 10.1 bln, near unchanged from the GBP 10.3 deficit seen in January.

China:  The economic calendar is light this week. March services PMI on Wednesday, which is expected to rise to 51.5 from 51.2. March foreign direct investment (Friday) is seen up 2.0% y/y from the 1.8% increase in January.

Japan: The first economic releases come on Wednesday, with the preliminary February leading and coincident indices. The former is seen down 0.5% m/m versus the prior -0.4%, while the latter is expected up 2.8% m/m from 2.9% in January. The February current account surplus (Friday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,100 bln from 520.8 bln in January. March consumer confidence (Friday) is forecast to improve to 40.1 from the prior 40.1.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the current 2.00% rate setting (Tuesday), however,  the data for Building Approvals, (better than expected) Retail Sales (worse) and March ANZ job ads (also worse) have been released overnight and have increased pressure on the RBA to act on rates, causing a fall in the AUD. The trade deficit (Tuesday) is projected at -A$2.8 bln in February from -A$2.9 bln in January. RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Kent speaks on Economic Forecasting at the Reserve Bank of Australia (Wednesday).

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: Housing reports dominate an otherwise thin week. And while there are some important releases on the docket, the market impact should be minimal since the FOMC is out of the picture for now and as the data aren’t likely to change current outlooks. Trading is likely to be thinned by the approaching holiday. Existing home sales (Monday) are expected to edge up 0.5% to 5.500 mln in February (median 5.355 mln) following the 0.4% January gain to 5.470 mln. This would be a 3rd straight monthly gain as the sector continues to recover from “Know Before You Owe” distortions. There is some downside risk due to the 3 point decline in the February NAHB index. New home sales for February (Wednesday) are expected to climb 1.2% to a 500k pace (median 510k), erasing the 9.2% January drop to 494k. Durable goods orders (Thursday) are projected to decline 2.0% (median -2.4%) in February, almost halving the 4.7% January rebound, as the headline index continues its saw-toothed path. Revised Q4 GDP (Friday) should be revised a tad higher to a 1.2% growth clip (median 1.0%), from the 1.0% pace posted previously, though is down from the 2.0% Q3 rate.
• Canada: Data and events slow to a trickle this week after the strong flow last week. Indeed, there are not any economic reports due — the next release is the Industrial Product Price index at the end of the month.
• Europe: This week’s economic calendar holds an almost full round of confidence data, but with the ECB busy implementing the new measures, the data won’t have any immediate impact on policymakers. We are looking for a rise in the March ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday) 4.5 (median 5.0) from 1.0) in February. The Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday) reading for March, meanwhile, is still expected to ease slightly to 105.6 (median 105.7) from 105.7, as future expectations remain depressed by weak orders inflow and falling exports. EMU PMI readings (Tuesday) for March, on the other hand, could well be mixed again, and we expect them to recover somewhat and rise to 51.4 (median 51.3) from 51.2, while the services reading is seen unchanged at 53.3 (median same), which should leave the composite at 53.0 (median same) also unchanged from the previous month. Finally French business confidence (Thursday) is also expected to hold steady at 103 (median same).
• UK: The CBI industrial trends gets the ball rolling (Monday). We expect it to improve to -14 in the March survey (median same) from -17 previously. February inflation data (Tuesday) has us anticipating a further uptick in headline CPI to 0.4% (median same), up from 0.3% previously. This would be in line with BoE projections. February retail sales (Thursday) are expected to dip 1% m/m (median same) to take the y/y figure to +3.4% from +5.2% in the previous month. The March CBI distributive sales survey (Thursday) is expected to come in unchanged at a +10 reading in the headline realized sales figure.
• China: There are no economic data releases scheduled this week.
• Japan: Markets are closed today for the Vernal Equinox. Markets reopen Tuesday to the release of the March Nikkei manufacturing PMI. It’s been trending down since October, and the 2.2 point drop in February to 50.1 puts the index just barely above shrinking territory. The January “All Industry” activity index is due Tuesday too. It’s seen only one positive reading over the past six months (from July). Highlighting Friday is the February national overall CPI, seen up 0.4% y/y from the prior unchanged reading, while at the core level, prices are seen unchanged y/y as they were in January. March Tokyo overall CPI is expected unchanged y/y versus -0.1% in February, while core likely fell 0.2% y/y versus the previous 0.1% outcome. February services PPI (Friday) is penciled in at 0.2% y/y, as it was in January. Revised January leading and coincident indices are also on tap.
• Australia: The thin calendar does feature two appearances from RBA officials at the ASIC Annual Forum 2016 in Sydney (Tuesday). Governor Stevens will deliver a speech and Assistant Governor (Financial System) Malcolm Edey will participate in a panel. There is little on the economic data docket this week, although the Q4 home price index (Tuesday) is scheduled for release.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: The US economic calendar is a fairly full one heading into the FOMC decision, starting off (Tuesday) with February retail sales seen sinking 0.2% (median 0.1%) vs +0.2% in January, or -0.3% ex-auto (median 0.1%). We see some downside risks from chain store sales, gasoline prices and vehicle sales relative to the more upbeat consensus. PPI is forecast to sink 0.3% in February (median -0.1%), likely rising 0.1% ex-F&E, while the Empire State may rebound to -12.0 in March (median -13.3) vs -16.6. Business inventories are expected to be unchanged in January, while the NAHB housing market index may rise to 59 in March vs 58 and TIC data is due. That brings us to the FOMC decision day (Wednesday) with some last-minute updates, including the MBA report, CPI seen falling 0.2% in February (median 0.1%) or +0.1% ex-F&E, as inflation continues to elude the Fed. Housing starts are on tap as well, expected to gain 2.8% to a 1,130k pace in February (median 1,150k), while industrial production is set to sink 0.5% in February (median -0.1%) vs 0.9%. After the FOMC decision the calendar resumes (Thursday) with several updates, including the Philly Fed index, which is primed to tick back up to -1.0 in March (median -1.1) vs -2.8. The current account gap may narrow to -$114 bln in Q4 (median -$116.3 bln) vs -$124.1 bln in Q3. Next is initial jobless claims forecast to hold steady at 259k (median 265k), while February leading indicators are set to rebound to 0.3% (0.2% median) from -0.2%. Yellen favorite JOLTS data is due Thursday, but Michigan sentiment (Friday) caps it all off with a potential uptick to 92.0 in March preliminary data (median 92.2) from 91.7 in final February report.

• Canada: The Canadian calendar will solidify the January GDP outlook, with manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales due out. Manufacturing (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% m/m in January after the 1.2% gain in December. Wholesale sales are seen up 0.3% m/m in January following the 2.0% surge in December. Retail sales are projected to gain 0.5% in January after the 2.2% drop in December. Retail sales are expected to dip 0.2% in January after the 1.6% drop in December as lower gasoline prices weigh. CPI is seen rising 0.1% m/m (nsa) in February after the 0.2% gain in January. CPI is expected to slow to a 1.3% y/y growth rate (nsa) in February from the 2.0% pace in January. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is seen accelerating to a 2.2% y/y clip in February from 2.0% in January. February existing home sales (Tuesday) and the February Teranet/National HPI (today) are due early in the week. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week.

• Europe: European calendar has final readings for February inflation numbers, with the overall CPI reading expected to be confirmed at -0.2% y/y. The Eurozone also has trade data and industrial production numbers for January, but overall the week is quiet, leaving markets to digest the ECB policy meeting.

• United Kingdom: The calendar this week is highlighted by the March BoE MPC monetary policy meeting (announcing Thursday). The data schedule is Spartan, featuring BoE job market data covering January and February (Wednesday).

• China: February foreign direct investment (tentatively due Tuesday) is forecast to have fallen 3.3% y/y versus the -3.2% seen in January.

• Japan: In Japan, the BoJ meeting on Tuesday will highlight, though we expect the Bank to stand pat following its entrance into the NIRP club last month. The BoJ is expected to adopt a wait-and-see stance going forward, as it assesses the impact of negative rates. Talk of fresh fiscal stimulus has been getting louder, with the most likely first steps being a delay of the next round of sales tax increase, and perhaps even a cut to the current sales tax. On the economic data front, January machine orders (today) were expected to rise 2.0% m/m from the prior 4.2% increase but beat expectations rising by 15%. Revised January industrial production (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 3.7%, while the January tertiary index (Wednesday) is forecast to rise 0.1% versus the 0.6% decline in December. The February trade report (Thursday) is penciled in for a JPY 400 bln surplus, from the revised JPY 648.8 bln deficit in January.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar has the minutes to the March RBA meeting (Tuesday). The economic data calendar features February employment (Thursday), expected to bounce back 20.0k following the 7.9k drop in January. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8% in February from 6.0% in January. There is double bill of RBA speakers this week, with Debelle (Thursday) and Ellis (Friday) on the docket. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks at the FX Week Australia conference in Sydney. Luci Ellis, Head of the Financial Stability Department speaks at the Financial Risk Day 2016 conference in Sydney.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: This week’s economic calendar is as thin as it could be with only 8 releases and none of the crucial. February trade price data (Friday) headlines the slate that includes the Fed’s LMCI and consumer credit reports (today) and January wholesale trade (Wednesday), along with weekly jobless claims, the Treasury budget, and Q4 QSS (Quarterly Services Survey) figures (Thursday). Import prices are forecast dropping 0.9% on the month, with export prices off 0.5% as weakness in energy prices remains a major drag. Wholesale sales are seen falling 0.8%, with inventories dipping 0.2%. These data will help fine tune GDP forecasts. After last week’s data we’re seeing a 1.5% growth pace for Q1, from an upwardly revised 1.1% in Q4 (was 1.0%). Note that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate was revised up to 2.2% after jobs and trade data, from 1.9% previously.

• Canada: It will be a very busy week of data and events, with the focus on the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement (Wednesday). We expect no change to the current 1.00% rate setting, with Poloz maintaining the cautiously constructive outlook for domestic and global growth. The slate of economic data due this week should support the Bank of Canada’s outlook. Employment (Friday) is the data highlight of the week, with jobs expected to rise 10.0k in February after the 5.7k drop in January. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.2%. Housing starts (Tuesday) are projected to improve to a 175.0k unit clip in February from the 165.9k unit pace in January. Building permits (Tuesday) are expected to rise 3.0% m/m in January after the 11.3% surge in December. While capacity utilization (Thursday) is expected to fall to 81.7% in Q4 from 82.0% in Q3, with the report consistent with an economy that has ample spare capacity. The new home price index (Thursday) is anticipated to rise 0.1% m/m in January after th e 0.1% gain in December. Net worth for Q4 (Friday) will feature another rise in the ratio of net worth to disposable income. Governor Poloz provides introductory remarks (Thursday) at the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research in Ottawa.

• Europe: The ECB meeting clearly will overshadow data releases this week, which include German orders and production numbers for January. German factory orders came in better than expected earlier at -0.1% against expectations of -0.5%. The previous month was also revised up to -0.2% form -0.7%. Industrial production (Tuesday) meanwhile, is expected to pick up 0.6% m/m (median same), after the -1.2% m/m contraction in the previous month, which was also impacted by the mild weather at the end of last year, which cut back energy production. French industrial production (Thursday) should show a similar pattern. The final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.5% y/y, but is too backward looking to change the outlook. The same holds for final February inflation readings from Germany, France and Spain, which are not expected to show major revisions. The calendar also has German trade data, as well as a German bond auction. Events include a Eurogroup meeting, which will be watched for comments on the progress on the Greek bailout review. There also is a one day summit on the EU refugee crisis. We don’t expect major progress, but rather the discussions will once again show the growing rift between countries on the issue.

• United Kingdom: The Brexit debate will remain the central theme, with the pound sensitive to any signs that the “Outers” are making a serious challenge to the status quo of the “Inners.” So far this hasn’t been the case. The latest FT poll tracker has 46% favouring to remain in the EU, 41% wanting to leave, and 13% still undecided. Big misses in UK PMI numbers for February last week highlighted flagging growth momentum, though sterling markets have discounted a bearish narrative that has seen BoE tightening expectations being pushed out to 2017. The calendar this week brings the BRC retail sales report for February (Tuesday), industrial production for January (Wednesday) and January trade numbers (Friday). We don’t anticipate these to be market movers. December. The trade figures should see a deficit of GBP 10.2 bln in January. BoE Governor Carney is also due to testify before Parliament (Tuesday).

• China: There is a lot of data from China this week. The February trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to $53.0 bln from $63.3 bln in January. February foreign direct investment (Tuesday) is seen sliding further to -3.3% y/y from -3.2% in January. February CPI (Thursday) is forecast accelerating to a 2.0% y/y pace from 1.8%, while PPI likely edged up to -5.0% y/y from -5.3%. February loan data is also due Thursday. January industrial production will be released on Saturday, and is likely to come in up 5.5% y/y from the 6.13% pace in January.

• Japan:  BoJ Governor Kuroda will be speaking at a Yomiuri Shimbun event ahead of next week’s (March 14, 15 policy meeting). Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to be revised down to -1.5% from the preliminary -1.4%, while the January current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to JPY 900 bln from 960.75 bln previously. February consumer confidence (Tuesday) is forecast to have dipped to 42.3 from 42.5. February bank loans and first 20-day February trade data are also due Tuesday. February PPI (Thursday) is expected to improved slightly to -2.4% y/y from -3.1% in January.

• Australia: calendar is sparse this week after last week’s data barrage and the RBA meeting. The feature economic release is January housing finance (Wednesday), expected to fall 1.0% m/m following the 2.6% gain in December. ANZ job ads (today) disappointed. The actual number -1.2% was lower than anticipated after the 1.0% gain in January. RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe speaks (Tuesday) at the Urban Development Institute of Australia’s (UDIA) National Industry Congress in Adelaide.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: US data is front and center ahead with the February employment report highlighting Friday, though as forecast it’s not likely to alter the outlook on the labor market or necessarily the Fed trajectory. We forecast a 190k gain along with a steady 4.9% unemployment rate. Also on tap is a small 0.1% forecast hourly earnings rise and likely 34.5 hour workweek (median 34.6). Initial jobless claims have been trending lower of late and this could lend some upside risk to payrolls this month. As a prelude to payrolls the economic calendar will close out the month of February (today) with Chicago PMI expected to dip to 54.5 in February (median 53.1) from 55.6, NAR pending home sales may rebound to 107.7 in January from 106.8 and the Dallas Fed index is still seen tortured by the oil sector at -33.0 in February, up slightly from -34.6 in January. The ISM manufacturing index (Tuesday) should show minor improvement to 48.5 from 48.2, though still in contraction, accompanied by construction spending set to rise 0.5% for January vs 0.1%. Vehicle sales are projected to increase 0.8% to a 17.6 mln unit pace. MBA mortgage application report is on tap (Wednesday), along with the February ADP Employment report, which should show a 180k gain for the month (195k median), below the January figure of 205k. There’s quite a data hurdle (Thursday), starting with the revision of Q4 productivity seen at -3.2% (median -3.1%) vs -3.0% initially, while unit labor costs may accordingly be revised up to 4.7% (median 4.5%) from 4.5%. Initial jobless claims are set rebound 10k to 282k for the week ending February 27, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing index should reveal sluggish growth at 54.0 in February (53.1 median) vs 53.5 and factory goods orders rebound 0.7% in January (median +1.5%) vs -2.9% in December. Wrapping up the week will be wholesale trade data (Friday). Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday) adds to the rich tapestry of data and events, but it shouldn’t provide any major new insights or alter outlooks on the economy.

• Canada: The Canadian calendar is packed with top tier economic releases this week. The Q4 and December GDP reports (Tuesday) along with the trade figures (Friday) highlight. December GDP is expected to moderate to a 0.1% m/m pace, while the separate real GDP measure is seen edging 0.3% higher in Q4. The reports will show a domestic economy that was limping along, yet still expanding, going into the new year. The January trade report is expected to show a widening in the deficit to -C$0.8 bln from -C$0.6 bln in December. A variety of other reports are on the docket: The Q4 current account (today) is seen narrowing to a -C$15.5 bln deficit from -C$16.2 bln in Q3. The industrial product price index (today) is expected to decline 0.1% m/m in January after the 0.2% drop in December. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to slump to a still firm 60.0 in February from the seasonally adjusted 66.0 in January. Productivity (Friday) is seen flat in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.1% gain in Q3. The RBC manufacturing PMI for February is due out Tuesday.

• Europe: this week’s data releases will add to the arguments of the doves with national inflation data suggesting that overall EMU HICP (today) will fall back to -0.1% y/y. Final PMI numbers for February will only confirm that confidence is hit by uncertainty about the outlook for the world economy and ongoing market turbulences and the EMU Feb Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 51.0 and the Services PMI (Wednesday) at 53.0 (medians same). Data still indicates expansion across both sectors, but growth momentum is clearly ebbing. For now though at least labour markets continue to improve, which underpins consumption trends, but this is a lagging indicator and if growth slows down it is only a matter of time until this will also be reflected in unemployment data. For February we still see another dip in the German sa jobless total (Tuesday) of 10K (median same), which would leave the unemployment rate unchanged at a very low 6.2%. The overall Eurozone rate for January meanwhile is seen steady at 10.4% (median same). Data releases also include more national unemployment and inflation numbers as well as German retail sales and import prices.

• United Kingdom: The calendar this week, in chronological order, brings January BoE lending data (today), the February Markit PMI surveys for manufacturing (Tuesday), construction (Tuesday) and services (Wednesday). Lending is likely to be strong, while markets will be keeping close tabs on the PMI reports following weakness in January data. We expect the BoE report to show a GBP 1.3 bln rise in unsecured consumer lending, near to underlying trend, and a jump in mortgage approvals to 74.0k from 70.8 in the previous month, likely to be reflective of a rush of so-called buy-to-let purchases ahead of tax changes. The manufacturing PMI has us expecting an ebb to a 52.3 headline reading (median 52.2), down from 52.9 in January. The data is too early to reflect the jump in Brexit concerns that has happened over the last week, but will still show the erosive affect that slowing Eurozone and global growth is having. The construction PMI is anticipated at 55.5 from 55.0, holding near recent trends. The services PMI should come in at 55.1 (median 55.0), down from 55.6, which would leave the composite figure at 55.7, down from 56.1.

• China: In China, data includes January leading indicators (today) and February PMIs (Tuesday). The Caixin/Markit series is expected to dip to 48.2 from 48.4, while the official CFLP reading is seen at 49.2 from 49.4. February services PMI (Thursday) are penciled in at 52.0 from 52.4.

• Japan: January preliminary industrial production (today) rebounded nicely and came in at 3.7% m/m, as compared to the previous -1.7% outcome. January retail sales fell to a -0.1% y/y pace from flat for large retailers, though total sales should improve slightly to a -0.7% y/y clip from -1.1% y/y overall. January housing starts improved to 0.2% from -1.3%. January unemployment (Tuesday) likely remained steady at 3.3%, with the job offers/seekers ratio static as well at 1.27. January PCE (Tuesday) is forecast at a -3.0% y/y rate from the -4.4% y/y outcome in December. February auto sales are on the docket (Tuesday) as well. January Markit/Nikkei PMI (Wednesday) is expected to fall to 51.0 from 52.3, as the Q4 MOF capex survey (Wednesday) is seen slowing to 7.0% y/y from 11.2% y/y previously.

• Australia: calendar is headlined by the RBA meeting (Tuesday), expected to result in no change to the 2.00% policy rate setting. A busy economic calendar has real Q4 GDP (Wednesday), expected to slow to a 0.5% growth rate after the 0.9% gain in Q3 (q/q, sa). January building approvals (Tuesday) are seen dipping 1.0% m/m following the 9.2% bounce in December. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is projected to worsen to -A$20.5 bln in Q4 from -A$18.1 bln in Q3. The trade report (Thursday) is expected to show a narrowing in the surplus to -A$2.8 bln in January from -A$3.5 bln in December. Retail sales (Thursday) are seen rising 0.3% m/m in January after the flat reading in December.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: Housing reports this week feature January existing home sales (Tuesday) and new home sales (Wednesday), along with December Case Shiller (Tuesday) and FHFA (Thursday) home prices. Existing home sales are forecast rising 0.7% to a 5.500 mln pace following the 14.7% bounce in December, though there may be some further fallout from the regulatory distortion from late 2015, as well as some depressing impact from weather and the market turbulence to start 2016. New home sales are expected to drop 4.4% to a 0.520 mln clip following the 10.8% jump in December, which was a 3rd consecutive monthly increase. We look for some slippage in the Case Shiller index, which hasn’t posted a monthly decline since January 2015. On the other hand, the FHFA is expected to post another small increase. It hasn’t declined since January 2012. Durable goods new orders are forecast rebounding 2.0% in January after diving 5.0% in December, continuing a typically saw-toothed pattern, which limits a lot of the report’s usefulness. Q4 GDP is expected to be revised slightly lower to a 0.5% pace, versus the 0.7% increase in the Advance report, and down from 2.0% in Q3. Much of the weakness is a function inventories, but the soft data did factor into recession worries earlier this year. January income and consumption reports will help fine tune GDP forecast for Q1 too. Income is forecast rising 0.4%, with consumption up 0.3%. The gains in income/spending, amid a firmer labor market, are major factors countering recession worries. Consumer confidence and sentiment data is also on tap this week and are expected to show modest gains thanks to the mixed though mostly improved data and diminished recession fears.

• Canada: The Canadian calendar is thin after last week’s busy holiday-shortened docket. The highlight will be comments from BoC Deputy Governor Schembri (Wednesday), who speaks to the Guelph Chamber of Commerce in Guelph, ON. His remarks, titled “Connecting the Dots: Elevated Household Debt and the Risk to Financial Stability” will be published on the BoC’s website at 12:35 ET. There will not be a press conference but he will take questions from the audience. Data includes the December establishment employment survey (Thursday), which provides a separate jobs tally along with an average weekly earnings figure. Neither result is market moving. We expect earnings to dip 0.1% m/m in December after the 0.3% drop in November. The timely labour force survey revealed a 22.8k gain in December before falling 5.7k in January. An increase in the establishment survey’s jobs measure during December is anticipated.

• Europe: The week kicks off with the Manufacturing and Services PMI readings (today) with the former seen falling to 52.0 (median same) from 52.3 and the latter to 51.2 (med 53.3) from 53.6, which would leave the composite at 53.2 (median 53.3) from 53.6. Data broadly in line with expectations would still point to ongoing expansion in both sectors, but the recent slowdown is consistent with a growth outlook weakened by global headwinds. Similarly, the German Ifo Business Climate (Thursday) is expected to fall to 106.9 (median same) from 107.3 and the overall Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence to 104.4 (median same) from 105.0. With the focus on February confidence readings, final Q4 GDP numbers are not expected to change the current outlook unless there are marked revisions. We expect German Q4 GDP to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q, and Spanish GDP at 0.8% q/q, which would not change the overall Eurozone estimate. More important will be the round of preliminary national inflation numbers for February, where we see the Spanish HICP falling to -0.5% y/y (median same), French HICP to fall to 0.2% y/y (median 0.1%) from 0.3% y/y and German HICP (Thursday) to fall to 0.3% y/y (med 0.1%) from a preliminary January reading of 0.4% y/y. Base effects and oil prices are the main reason for the renewed decline, but with expectations for a pickup in headline rates being pushed out further and further, the ECB will be fretting about the long term impact of persistently low headline rates. The February numbers will overshadow the release of the final Eurozone HICP reading, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.4% y/y (median same). The data calendar also has French consumer spending and German retail sales for January, as well as Eurozone M3 money supply growth, with the latter seen steady at 4.7% y/y. As usual, the focus here will be on the counterparts and lending growth, however. Germany releases GfK consumer confidence data.

• United Kingdom: The UK calendar this week brings the latest CBI surveys on industrial trends (today) and the retail sector (Wednesday), and the second estimate of Q4 GDP. We expect the industrial trends survey for February to rebound a little from January’s unexpected weakness, forecasting a -12 outcome in the headline total orders reading (median same). The CBI’s distributive sales survey, meanwhile, has us expecting a correction to 12 from 16 in the headline realized sales figure. The second release of Q4 GDP should come in unrevised at 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y.

• China: Apart from MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (today) and House Price Index on Friday, the Chinese calendar is empty. MNI Business Sentiment declined to 49.9 from the previous figure of 52.3. The decline was rather big and came below the analyst expectations but more importantly the actual number was below 50 index points. This indicates that the number of businesses feeling pessimistic about the future was greater than the number of businesses being positive about future growth.

• Japan: kicked things off with the flash Markit PMI manufacturing index (today). The index fell to 50.2 after falling to 52.3 in January, from 52.6 in December. January services PPI (Wednesday) is forecast slowing to a 0.2% y/y pace, halving the previous 0.4% gains. Revised December leading and coincident indices are also due (Wednesday). January national CPI (Friday) is expected to drop to -0.1% y/y from December’s 0.2% reading on an overall basis, while the core reading is seen down 0.1% y/y from up 0.1% previously. Overall Tokyo February CPI (Friday) is seen ticking up to -0.2% y/y from -0.3%, while the core is expected to dip to -0.2% y/y from -0.1% in January. The downtrend in price pressures will be a thorn in the BoJ’s side, and will be a major factor in the BoJ’s policy decisions. BoJ Governor Kuroda said last week that the Bank will continue to ease until the 2% is achieved. It could be awhile.

• Australia: calendar has the RBA’s Assistant Governor Debelle (Financial Markets) speaking at the KangaNews DCM Summit in Sydney (today). Tony Richards, the RBA’s Head of Payment Policy Department, speaks at the Payment Innovations 2016 Conference in Sydney (Tuesday). Economic data includes the Q4 wage price index (Wednesday), expected to expand 0.5% (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% gain in Q3. Also, Q4 private capital expenditures (Thursday) are seen falling 5.0% (q/q, sa) after the 9.2% drop in Q3 as the resource sector continues to delay projects amid a still bleak price outlook.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.