Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: The economic calendar will be customary drumbeat to the January employment report, where nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are expected to increase by 200k (median 200k), with a 190k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 4.9% (median 5.0%) from 5.0%, which could cause a stir if realized. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from November, while hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.3% which would leave a 2.3% y/y rise and hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.3% decrease last month. On balance an as-expected report would leave the Fed’s jobs pillar in sturdy shape, but while “global economic and financial developments” continue to vex them, from a tactical standpoint risk is that disappointment on the the jobs front would feed market fears about slowing global growth. Also on tap this week is December personal income (Today), forecast to rise 0.3% (median 0.2%), while PCE is seen unchanged (median 0.1%) and core PCE prices up just 0.1%. Markit PMI manufacturing is also due, along with January ISM set to tick up to 48.5 (median 48.0) vs 48.2 and construction spending is expected to snap back 0.6% in December from -0.4% previously. There’s just lonely vehicle sales (Tuesday), projected to rise 1.6% to 17.5 mln units in January. MBA mortgage data returns (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey, seen rising 190k in January vs 257k in December. Markit PMI services is also on tap, along with ISM Non-Manufacturing set to hold static at 55.3 in January. Preliminary Q4 productivity may slump to 2.5% (median -1.8%) compared to +2.2% in Q3 (Thursday), driving unit labor costs up sharply to 5.7% from 1.8%. That leaves factory goods orders set to skid -3.0% in December (-2.7% median) vs -0.2%.

• Canada: economic data is concentrated on the final day of the work week: Friday will see the release of January employment, December trade and the Ivey PMI for January. The employment report is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in January employment after the 22.8k rise in December. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.1%, matching the rate in December. The trade balance is expected to narrow to -C$1.6 bln in December from -C$2.0 bln in November. Exports are seen rising 0.5% m/m in December after the 0.4% gain in November. Imports are expected to fall 0.3% m/m in December after the 0.7% drop in November. The Ivey PMI is projected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 51.0 in January from 49.9 in December. Results that match expectations across these reports, notably for employment and trade, would underpin the BoC’s decision to hold rates steady last month. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week, with BoC Deputy Governor Lane’s speech on February 8th the next appearance from a bank official. 

• Europe: The data calendar this week should not challenge the rate outlook substantially. Confidence indicators have been coming off, but still remain at relatively high levels and the final readings of Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs for January are unlikely to hold real surprises, with the manufacturing reading (today) expected to be confirmed at 52.3 and the services reading (Wednesday) at 53.5, leaving the composite at 53.6 (medians same), down from recent levels, but still pointing to ongoing robust expansion. German manufacturing orders (Friday) meanwhile are expected to correct -0.7% m/m (median -0.5%) from the strong 1.5% m/m rise in December. Markit said companies are sitting on a large amount of unfulfilled orders, which should keep production and employment growth going even against global headwinds. The German sa jobless number (Tuesday) is seen falling 9K, leaving the sa jobless rate unchanged at a very low 6.3% (medians same). The labour market is improving not just in Germany and the overall Eurozone December unemployment rate (Tuesday) is expected to fall to 10.4% from 10.5%. The Eurozone data calendar also has retail sales and producer price inflation for December as well as Italian preliminary HICP rates for January. Supply comes from Spain, France and Germany, with the latter auctioning 5-year Bobls on Wednesday. Apart from Draghi’s presentation on Monday ECBspeak comes from Constancio and Knot among others and the ECB’s economic bulletin is due Thursday. 

• United Kingdom: The January manufacturing PMI survey (today) gets the ball rolling. We expect an ebb to a 51.6 reading (median 51.8) from December’s 51.9. This would fit the picture painted by the CBI’s industrial trends survey for the same month, reaffirming the weak-link status of the manufacturing sector in the UK economy. The construction PMI (Tuesday) is seen dipping to 57.5 (median same) from 57.8, and the services PMI (Wednesday) has us expecting a 55.4 outcome (median 55.2), slightly off the 55.5 reading of the previous month. This would leave the composite PMI at 55.0, down from 55.3. December lending data from the BoE has us anticipating a capping out in mortgage approvals to 69.6k, down from 70.4k in November. Unsecured consumer lending, and non-finance business lending will also interest.

• China: China’s manufacturing sentiment remained contractionary in January, as expected. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 from 49.7 in December. The erosion leaves the lowest reading since the official survey fell below 50.0 in August of 2015. The privately complied Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI improved to a still weak 48.4 from 48.2 in December. The Caixin/Markit survey has been below 50.0 since February of 2015, seeing a record low of 47.2 in September of last year. The Caixin/Market January services PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 50.1 from 50.2. India’s RBI meets on Tuesday, and is expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%. South Korea December trade surplus (today) is seen narrowing to KRW 6.0 bln from 7.2 bln in November, while January CPI (Tuesday) is expected to cool to 1.1% y/y from 1.3% previously.

• Japan: can be expected to get a lift in sentiment following the BoJ’s shocker move on Friday, though any improvement will not be evident in this week’s light calendar. Final Markit manufacturing PMI (today) sank to 52.3, down from December’s 52.6 and the lowest in three months, but still, at least, indicating growth. Services PMI (Wednesday) will be also of interest. The January flash manufacturing index dipped to 52.4 from 52.6 in December, while the services index slid to 51.5 from 51.6. January consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 42.5 from 42.7, while on Friday, preliminary December leading and coincident indices are due. BoJ Governor Kuroda’s speech (Wednesday) will be closely followed after last week’s action.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the RBA meeting (Tuesday). The Bank left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and we expect no change in the rate setting this week. The bank releases the Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday), which will include updated growth and inflation projections. As for economic data, the December trade deficit (Wednesday) is seen at -A$2.5 bln compared to the -A$2.9 bln shortfall in November. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to bounce 5.0% m/m in December after the 12.7% drop in November. Retail sales (Friday) are seen expanding 02.% m/m in December after the 0.4% gain in November.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: There are a number of important indicators due, including housing figures, PMIs, durables, and trade. But the Advance Q4 GDP print (Friday) may be the most interesting amid global worries over a worldwide slowing in growth. We are forecasting slippage to a 1.3% pace (median 0.8%), from Q2’s 2.0%, with erosion in consumption, fixed investment, and an inventory drawdown weighing. The November Case-Shiller and the FHFA home price indexes are slated for Tuesday, along with January consumer confidence and the Markit services PMI. New home sales for December (Wednesday) are forecast rising to 0.500 mln. The usually volatile durable goods report (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.5% following the unchanged November print. Also on Thursday are weekly initial jobless claims and December pending home sales. Along with GDP on Friday, there’s the report on Advance trade in goods, Q4 ECI, the January Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

• Canada: In Canada, the economic calendar moves to the slow lane this week after last week’s thrill ride of dueling projections for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) announcement and the full slate of November growth data and the December CPI. We receive the final word on November’s total growth performance, with November GDP (Friday) seen expanding 0.3% after the flat reading in October. The industrial product price index (Friday) should reveal a 0.5% drop (m/m, nsa) in December after the 0.2% drop in November, as weaker energy and commodity prices weigh. Further deprecation in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar could provide a boost to the IPPI however, and is the main upside risk to our projection. Meanwhile, the IPPI is expected to post a 0.9% y/y rate of increase in December after the 0.2% drop in November. A difficult comparison with a sharply lower December of 2014 index level is to blame. The report will not challenge the BoC’s view that the underlying inflation backdrop remains tame as the economy operates below potential output. The January CFIB Business Barometer small and medium business outlook survey is due (Thursday), which will provide an early look at conditions in the new year. The Bank of Canada takes a breather from events this week. Nothing is on the docket until February 8, when Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech in Montreal. 

• Europe: Data releases this week will bring more economic sentiment data as well as preliminary January inflation numbers. The latter should show an uptick in headline rates, but even if the overall Eurozone HICP number will rise to 0.4% y/y (med same) as expected, it would still remain at very low levels and far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. The overall EMU CPI number on Friday will be preceded by preliminary German HICP on Thursday, seen also rising to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y and preliminary French readings (Friday), expected to show a rise in the headline rate to 0.5% y/y from 0.3% y/y. We were looking for a dip in the German Ifo Business Climate reading (today) to 108.5 from 108.7 but the actual figure was even weaker and came in at 107.3. We also expect to see a decline in the ESI Economic Sentiment (Thursday) to 106.6 (med 106.5) from 106.8. Inflation projections may be revised down, but interestingly, so far growth projections have been left largely untouched, highlighting that it is the falling oil prices that is having the largest impact on price developments once again. Finally German GfK consumer confidence is seen falling to 9.3 from 9.4. With the focus firmly on future world growth GDP readings for Q4 2015 should not change the ECB’s stance significantly, but preliminary French and Spanish data on Friday will still attract some attention and we are looking for growth rates of 0.2% q/q and 0.8% q/q respectively. Data releases also include Eurozone M3 numbers on Friday, French consumption, Italian orders and business confidence, German retail sales and import price inflation. 

• United Kingdom: The calendar this week features the January CBI surveys, for industrial trends (today) and distributive sales (Friday), the first estimate of Q4 GDP (Thursday), and the January Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday). The data are collectively likely to fit the later-rather-then-sooner view with regard to the BoE’s course to rate lift-off after a near seven-year hiatus. We expect the CBI’s industrial trends survey to dip to -10 (median same) in the headline total orders balance, down from -7 previously. The CBI’s sales survey has us anticipating an +18 outcome in the headline realized sales balance, slightly off the +19 outcome seen in the prior month. We expect Q4 GDP to lift to 0.5% q/q (median same) from 0.4% in Q3, and Gfk sentiment to dip to 1 from 2.

• China: China’s calendar is virtually empty, with just leading indicators that are due on Thursday.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by CPI (Wednesday), expected to slow to a 0.2% pace in Q4 (q/q, sa) from the 0.5% rate of expansion in Q3. CPI is seen running at a 1.5% y/y pace in Q4, matching the growth rate in Q3. Core inflation measures are seen as slowing slightly: The trimmed mean is expected to slow to a 2.0% pace in Q4 from 2.1% in Q3 while the weighted median is projected at a 2.1% y/y pace in Q4 from 2.2% in Q3. Trade prices are also due (Thursday), with import prices expected to fall 1.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 1.4% gain in Q3. Export prices are projected to tumble 3.0% in Q4 after the flat reading in Q3. The RBA is on the final week of its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the new year. The modest slowing projected in total and core CPI measures for Q4 would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting.

• Japan: The BoJ meeting highlights Japan’s busy calendar. While we expect the Bank will remain in “wait and see mode” until March at the earliest, the slowing in its giant neighbor and the disinflationary effects of weaker oil prices and a stronger yen, could accelerate further easing moves. And this week’s data will be important for policymaker deliberations. The calendar kicks off with the December trade report, that showed country’s exports fell by 8% in December. November revised leading and coincident indices were also published today, both declining slightly from the previous number. December services PPI (Tuesday) is seen slipping to a 0.1% y/y rate from 0.2% in November. December total retail sales (Thursday) are forecast to have rebounded 0.1% y/y from a revised 1.1% drop in November, while large retailer sales are seen up 0.1% y/y from the prior revised dive of 1.6%. The remainder of the calendar is due Friday. December national CPI is expected to slow slightly to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% on an overall basis, and remain steady at 0.1% y/y on a core basis. January Tokyo CPI is seen unchanged y/y overall, matching the December outcome, and up 0.1% y/y on a core basis, also unchanged from the previous month. December unemployment should remain flat at 3.3%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is also seen steady at 1.25. December personal income is due, as is December PCE, with the latter expected to improve slightly to -2.6% y/y from November’s -2.9% reading. Preliminary December industrial production is penciled in at -0.5% y/y from -0.9%, while December housing starts are seen easing to 0.7% y/y from 1.7%. December construction orders are also on the docket.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: After the holiday break today (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day), the U.S. economic calendar may offer only limited last-minute insight for the Fed ahead of its policy decision the following week. Not that the markets care, having already priced the Fed out of the picture near-term following the resumption of Asian influenza in the oil and equity markets. The NAHB housing market index is forecast to rise to 62 in January from 61 (Tuesday), while CPI is expected to be a tame at unchanged headline and 0.2% core (Wednesday) and housing starts should rise 0.4% to a 1,178k pace in December. The Philly Fed index may rebound to -7.0 in January (median -5.5) vs -10.2 and initial jobless claims are forecast (Thursday) to sink 15k to 269k for the January 16 week. Existing home sales may snap back 11.3% to a 5.3 mln pace in January relative the 10.5% plunge in December (Friday), with the leading indicators is set to dip 0.1% in December from 0.4%.

• Canada: Economic data features manufacturing and wholesale trade (Wednesday). Those reports will be lost in the glare cast by the BoC announcement later that same day, but will provide another round of clues on how Canada’s economy performed in Q4. We expect a 0.7% gain in manufacturing shipments and a 0.5% rise in wholesale shipments, which would be suggestive of some growth in the total economy after the disappointing stall-out in October GDP. The week ends with CPI and retail sales (Friday). CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.8% y/y pace in December from the 1.4% clip in November, but the pick-up is due to a more difficult annual comparison. CPI is seen falling 0.3% m/m in December, driven by falling gasoline prices. Core CPI is expected to pick-up slightly to a 2.1% y/y clip in December from 2.0% in November, although the index is expected to show a 0.3% m/m drop that is in line with seasonal trends. Retail sales are projected to rise another 0.1% in November after an identical anemic gain in October, with the ex-autos aggregate seen up 0.3% after the flat reading in October. 

• Europe: Data releases during the week will only fuel the fears of the doves. Final December inflation readings are likely to confirm the German HICP rate (Tuesday) at just 0.2% y/y and the overall EMU HICP number (Thursday) at the same level. Core inflation remains higher at 0.9% y/y, but even this is still far away from the 2% upper limit for price stability and against expectations for an uptick in the headline rate at the end of last year. 

• United Kingdom: A busy data week looms, which arrives with sterling underperforming and Gilts outperforming as markets push back BoE tightening expectations. We expect data this week will side with this theme, which will includes December inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labour market data, covering November and December (Wednesday), retail sales for December and monthly government borrowing numbers (Friday). We forecast headline CPI at 0.1% y/y in December (median same), unchanged from November. Core CPI is also expected unchanged, at 1.2% y/y (median same). Ebb in economic momentum, renewed energy price declines, and abating wage growth suggests the inflation outlook will remain a benign one for now. Labour data has us expecting an unchanged reading in the official ILO unemployment rate of 5.2% in November (median same). The December claimant count rate is seen rising by 2.9k, down from 3.9k in the previous month. Of particular interest will be average household income, as this is a metric being closely monitored by the BoE. We expect to see a further whittling in wages, to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% and to 1.8% y/y from 2.0% in the ex-bonus reading in data covering the three months to November. We anticipate retail sales to have fallen by 0.2% m/m in December (median -0.3%). The annual comparison is expected at +4.4% after 5.5% growth in the previous month.

• China: In China, Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is seen at a 6.5% growth rate, slower than Q3’s 6.9% clip, and disappointing the government’s 7.0% projected pace. With all the recent concerns over growth, this data point will have potential to move global markets. The remaining releases all are due on Tuesday December industrial output will be important for the general outlook and expectations are for a 6.1% y/y growth rate, versus the 6.2% seen in November. December retail sales are penciled in at 11.1% y/y from the prior 11.2%, while December fixed investment likely inched down to 10.1% y/y from 10.2% in November. December foreign direct investment is seen sliding to 1.0% y/y from the previous 1.9% pace.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar lacks nourishing top tier data this week, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) drought continues. However, some second tier economic reports are on the slate: the TD-MI inflation gauge (Monday) and November HIA new home sales (Thursday) may be of some interest. The RBA remains on its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the New Year. As expected data this week would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting.

• Japan: In Japan, revised November industrial production (Monday) is expected unchanged at -1.0%. The November tertiary index (Monday) is forecast to have fallen 0.7% m/m, after rising 0.9% in October. On Thursday, the November all-industry index is expected at 0.5% m/m from the 1.0% increase seen in October.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: December retail sales (Friday) will be the week’s key data. A very modest 0.1% clip is forecast, with an ex auto gain of 0.3%, versus November 0.2%, 0.3% respective increases. Industrial production is also due and is seen slipping 0.2% in December after a 0.6% November drop, while capacity utilization slumps to 76.7% from 77.0% previously. The latter was the lowest since January 2014. The January Empire State manufacturing index and preliminary consumer sentiment index are also on tap, and will be some of the freshest indicators on the economy. The Empire State index should be little changed at -4.0 versus December’s -4.6. That would be the 6th straight month in negative (contractionary) territory. Consumer sentiment is forecast edging up to 92.8 from the prior 92.6, but the meltdown in stocks to start the year suggest there’s risk of a measurable decline. December PPI will round out the day and readings of unchanged for the headline and +0.1% for the core are forecast following November’s gains of 0.3% for both the headline and core rates. Other data this week includes the November JOLTS report (Tuesday), the Treasury budget for December (Wednesday), and trade prices (Thursday). The job openings report should reflect the ongoing firmness in the labor market. The Treasury is seen announcing a $4 bln budget deficit for December, compared to a $1.9 bln surplus last year. Import prices are expected to tumble 1.4% in December after the 0.4% November dip as weak oil prices remain a big drag. Export prices should drop 0.5% after the prior 0.6% decline.  And, it’s Q4 earnings season again and damp profit reports or negative outlooks could keep equities on the back foot. Alcoa kicks off today after the market close.

Canada: Canada’s calendar is front loaded this week, with the Bank of Canada’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey and December housing starts due today. The Outlook Survey is expected to show a modest improvement in sentiment, with the future sales growth measure projected to rise 4.0 points to 20.0 in Q4 after bouncing 8.0 points to 16.0 in Q3. Look for an ongoing divergence between firms that are directly or indirectly tied to the recourse sector and those firms that are not. Housing starts are projected to slow to a 200.0k unit rate in December from the 211.9k clip in November. Additional housing figures are out later in the week: The December Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday), the November new housing price index (Thursday) and December existing homes (Friday) are all expected to reveal ongoing regional divergence. Events are lacking from the Bank of Canada until the announcement and Monetary Policy Report on January 20. We expect no change in rates alongside a modest reduction in the growth outlook that leaves the expected gradual recovery in place over 2016 and 2017.

Europe: This week’s data releases won’t change the ECB outlook much. There are a bunch of final inflation numbers from Italy, Spain and first releases from France, Ireland and Portugal, but with overall Eurozone numbers already released these are unlikely to attract too much attention. The same holds for Eurozone trade data and even Eurozone industrial production, which are too backward looking to change the outlook. Germany will release the first estimate of full year 2015 GDP data on Thursday, which we see at 1.7%, up slightly from the 1.6% in 2014. Events include a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday and Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings, with Brexit talks and the refugee crisis still high on the political agenda in Europe.

United Kingdom: The UK data agenda this week is relatively quiet.  Industrial production figures (Tuesday) has us expecting a 0.1% m/m rise in November.  The December BRC retail sales survey (also Tuesday) should be robust. The calendar is highlighted this week by the monthly BoE MPC meeting (Thursday).  We expect the vote to remain unchanged from last month, with 8-1 in favour of leaving the repo rate at its historic low of 0.5%.

China: China’s calendar this week is light. December trade report is due Wednesday, and is expected to reveal a narrowed surplus of $50 bln, as compared to November’s $54.1 bln.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the employment report (Thursday), which is expected to reveal a 30k pull back in December after the 71.4k surge in November that strained the credibility of the report. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.0% in December from 5.8% in November. Housing investment (Friday) is seen falling 1.0% m/m in November after the 0.5% dip in October. ANZ job ads (today) are projected to slip 0.5% in December after the 1.3% bounce in November. The RBA remains on its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar.

Japan: In Japan, the November current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to JPY 1.00 tln from the previous 1,458.4 tln. December bank loans (Tuesday) are expected up 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, while December consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely ticked down to 42.5 from 42.6. November machine orders (Thursday) are forecast to fall 9.0% m/m after a 10.7% gain in October. Finally, December PPI (Thursday) is seen unchanged at -3.6% y/y.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

If you wish to get the latest forex brokers news,you can visit our Top Forex Brokers official website:

http://www.topforexbrokerscomparison.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Main Macro Events This Week

• United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be back-loaded this week with retail sales and PPI due to be released on Friday-The-13th and only a handful of minor data updates in a week bisected by the Veteran’s Day break on Wednesday, when bonds and the Fed will be closed but equity markets remain open. It is likely that after Friday’s catch-up payrolls report that the markets will be extra sensitive to any signs of a pick-up in consumption and wage gains this week, though this may not yet be evident. The week kicks off with the Fed’s October LMCI (today), but it’s merely a compilation of already known data. Import and export prices are set to fall 0.3% apiece in October (Tuesday) and -0.3% ex-petro (medians -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Data resumes after the break with the MBA mortgage market survey (Thursday), initial jobless claims seen declining 7k back down to to 269k. October PPI is set to rise 0.3% vs -0.5% in September (Friday), while the core reading rises only 0.1% vs -0.3%; or -1.1% y/y and 0.5% y/y respectively. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% in October for headline and ex-autos both (medians 0.4%, 0.3%), while business inventories may sink 0.2% (median unchanged) in September and preliminary Michigan sentiment is forecast to tick up to 91.0 in November vs 90.0.

• Canada: In Canada, the data calendar is thin this week, with only housing figures due for release. Housing starts (today) are expected to slow to a still strong 220k unit pace in October from the 230.7k rate in September. The acceleration in starts growth during September left the fastest growth rate since the 243.8k clip in April of 2012 and was driven by a 10.5% gain in multi-unit starts to 157.9k units in September. e expect moderation in multi-unit starts to weigh on total starts in October. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to expand 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.3% gain in August. 

• Europe: German HICP (Thursday) should be confirmed at 0.2% y/y (med same) while French HICP, released for the first time, is seen rising to 0.2% y/y (med same) from 0.1% y/y. Italian and Spanish HICP rates are expected to be confirmed at 0.3% y/y and -0.9% y/y respectively. This should leave the Eurozone aggregate, out the following week at 0.0% y/y. Final inflation numbers aside, the other focus are GDP readings for the third quarter on Friday. Italian GDP growth is seen steady at 0.3% y/y, German GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 0.3% q/q from 0.4% q/q in the second quarter and French GDP is seen picking up again after the stagnation in the second quarter and we are looking for a modest rise of 0.2% q/q (median 0.3%). This should leave the overall Eurozone growth number at 0.4% q/q (median same) also unchanged from the second quarter. Eurozone data releases also include September trade numbers out of Germany (today) and for the Eurozone as a whole (Friday). France releases September production numbers on Tursday, followed by the Eurozone aggregate on Thursday. 

• United Kingdom: The week ahead is highlighted by BRC retail sales report for October (Tuesday), along with the monthly labour market data covering September and October (Wednesday). The data will arrive with BoE tightening expectations having been put in limbo after the central bank trimming both growth and inflation expectations in its November Inflation Report, published last Thursday, and with Governor Carney having elevated China’s impact on inflation. The BRC report is not likely to alter this picture, where we expect a moderation in October after a strong gain in September. We forecast a 0.8% y/y rise in the headline like-for-like measure, down from 2.6% y/y growth in the month prior. The labour market report should show a continued picture of health, with the September ILO unemployment figure seen remaining at the 5.4% cycle low that was achieved in August, and while we see the October claimant count at a new stagnant +1.4k, we anticipate a solid 3.2% y/y gain (median same) in the with-bonus average household earnings figure for the three months to September. Such an outcome would be a reminder that the BoE still remains headed for a tightening, barring any fresh emerging market crisis. This, in turn, would help give Cable a cushion, which was crushed on the final two days of last week as Fed and BoE policy paths diverged.

• China: October CPI and PPI (Tuesday) will be of interest. The former is seen at 1.4% y/y from the prior 1.6% outcome. The latter is projected dipping to -6.0% y/y from September’s -5.9% reading. Tuesday also brings October lending indicators. October industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast at 5.6% y/y from 5.7% in September, while October retail sales (Wednesday), are penciled in at 11.0% y/y from 10.9%. October fixed investment dat a is also due during the week, and is expected to fall to 10.1% y/y from the prior 10.3%.

• Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the October employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k rise in jobs following the 5.1k drop in October. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.2%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is expected to rise 1.0% in September after the 2.9% gain in August, as low rates continue to underpin housing. ANZ job ads are due on Monday, and we expect ads to rise 2.0% in October after the 3.9% gain in September. There is nothing from the RBA this week. The minutes to the November meeting are due next week.

• Japan: In Japan, the September current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen bouncing to JPY 2,000 bln, after falling to JPY 1,653.1 bln in August from July’s JPY 1,808.6 bln. September machine orders (Thursday) are forecast rebounding 2.0% m/m, from the prior 5.7% drop. October PPI (Thursday) is seen at -3.4% y/y from -3.9% in September. The September tertiary index (Friday) likely rose 0.2% m/m after edging up 0.1% in August. Revised September industrial production is also due Friday, and is seen unchanged at 1.0% y/y.

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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